Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington Part 2 Impacts on Salmon by Robert S. Cole The Evergreen State College Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington (Part 2) Abstract This case study is an introduction to the potential impacts of global climate change on some of the Tribal lands in Washington State. It explores specifically the impacts of global climate change on the salmon life cycle. Because salmon have been such an integral part of indigenous cultures in the Pacific Northwest for thousands of years into present times, disruption of the salmon life cycle must be taken seriously. This case explores the impacts of increased air and water temperatures, of increased winter precipitation with decreased snowpack, of decreased summer precipitation, on the salmon life cycle. This case is designed as a ‘clicker case’ to be used in conjunction with interrupted lecture or interrupted workshop formats of presentation. The Pacific salmon have been a central part of the culture and economy of the indigenous peoples of the Pacific Northwest for thousands of years. That remains true today. The health and well-being of salmon stocks have been at the heart of the Boldt decision (U.S. v. Washington, 1974) and the Martinez decision (U.S. v. Washington, 2007), which affirmed fishing rights for Tribes, and the centrality of protecting salmon habitat from degradation. Image courtesy of Phillip Martin Since the Boldt decision, the Tribes in Washington State have played a crucial role in salmon management, salmon research, and salmon habitat restoration. The Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission (NWIFC) plays a central role in working on fisheries management with federal and state agencies and with the Tribes. The NWIFC has been a major source of quantitative measurements of salmon distribution and health, and uses sophisticated data analysis methods. The NWIFC has taken a leading role in habitat multiple kinds of restoration projects throughout the Salish Sea region. Over the past 200 years, the dominant culture has inflicted massive habitat degradation for salmon, including hydroelectric dams on many rivers, deforestation, alteration of riparian habitat, channeling rivers and streams, introduction of toxics and other pollutants, and destruction of estuaries and near-shore marine kelp beds. To aid salmon at all stages of the salmon life cycle, Tribal peoples, along with federal and state agencies and numerous environmental organizations have invested significant time and effort to help restore riparian habitat, estuaries and near-shore environments, and eliminate sources of toxics and pollution. Climate change may have an impact on the salmon life cycle in ways that are fundamentally different from the habitat destruction of the past 200 years. At a meeting of Tribal, federal, state, and academic people interested the impacts of global climate change on the salmon life cycle in Washington, several presenters showed some slides of likely scenarios. This case examines some of the issues that are of direct interest to anyone who cares about healthy salmon habitat and healthy salmon runs: Impact on salmon of increased air and water temperatures; Impact on salmon of altered precipitation patterns; Impact on salmon of altered stream and river hydrology; CQ #1: Based on your current knowledge, which statement is closest to your thoughts about the impact on salmon of global climate change? A. The impact on salmon, if any, will be small compared to natural changes that have occurred before. B. The impact on salmon will be minor, but won’t cause major disruptions to the salmon life-cycle. C. The impact on salmon will be significant, and will alter the salmon life-cycle. D. The impact on salmon will be catastrophic and will eliminate the species from streams and rivers in Washington. The Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington predicts that: • There will be a rise in average temperature throughout the 21st century; • There will be sea level rise in the Puget Sound region throughout the 21st century; • There will be a significant alteration of the hydrological cycle in the Pacific Northwest throughout the 21st century; • All of this will have substantial impact on the salmon runs, timber production, hydroelectric energy production, agriculture, and land areas close to sea level. http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ Here are three graphs related to air temperatures in the Pacific Northwest that the Climate Impacts Group has assembled: Average temperature could increase beyond the year-to-year variability observed in the PNW during the 20th century as early as the 2020s PNW climate change Accelerated warming +2 °F by 2020, 3 °F by 2040 (relative to 1970-1999) Rate of increase is 1.5-6 times faster than during 20th century Possibly more warming in summer than winter Precipitation variability continues 2020s Temperature Precip Low 0.7F (0.4C) - 4% Average 1.9F (1.1C) + 2% High 3.2F (1.8C) + 6% 2040s Temperature Precip Low 1.4F (0.8C) - 4% Average 2.9F (1.6C) + 2% High 4.6F (2.6C) + 9% All changes are benchmarked to average temperature and precipitation for 1970-1999 PNW Temperature Trends by Station Average annual temperature increased +1.5F in the PNW during the 20th century • Almost every station shows warming Cooler Warmer 3.6 °F Annual variability 2.7 °F present throughout1.8 °F the warming 0.9 °F trend • Extreme cold conditions have become rarer • Low temperatures rose faster than high temperatures Mote 2003(a) CQ #2: Based on your understanding of the above slides, what do you think best describes the local consequences of local air temperature change on the salmon in local streams? A. B. C. D. Air temperature rise will not affect salmon, because they don’t live in the air. Air temperature rise will have minimal effect on salmon because salmon can thrive in a range of different temperatures. Air temperature rise will have a detrimental effect on salmon because stream water temperatures will rise along with the air temperature. Air temperature rise will stop the salmon altogether from swimming upstream. Here are some upper limits of water temperature that various species of salmon can withstand. Here are the historical temperatures in August. Shaded areas: Air temperatures Circles: maximum stream temperatures Here are the anticipated August temperatures with two different models (A1B and B1) of greenhouse gas accumulation. Shaded areas: Air temperatures Circles: Maximum stream temperatures Here are the anticipated increases in weekly maximum stream temperatures. Here are the anticipated average number of weeks per year that stream temperatures exceed 21˚C (70˚F). Discussion Given the slides that you’ve seen, spend a few minutes discussing the impact of increasing water temperatures on salmon. What types of streamside management might help minimize stream water warming? The Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington has said that expected 21st century changes in temperature and precipitation will transform the hydrologic behavior of many mountain watersheds in the West. The next slide shows some of the projections: Trends in Spring Runoff Peak of spring runoff is moving earlier into the spring throughout western US and Canada • Advances of 10-30 days between 1948-2000 • Greatest trends in PNW, Canada, and AK • >30% of trends are statistically significant at the 90% level, especially in the PNW + 20 days later - 20 days earlier Stewart, I., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2004, Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a "Business as Usual" climate change scenario: Climatic Change 62, 217-232. CQ #3: Based on your understanding of the above slide, which statement best characterizes the impact of trends in spring runoff on the salmon life-cycle? A. B. C. D. Earlier spring runoff will have no discernable effect on the salmon life cycle. Earlier spring runoff will aid salmon in returning earlier to the rivers. Earlier spring runoff may disrupt the salmon life cycle. Earlier spring runoff will destroy the salmon life cycle. Shifts in Streamflow Simulated average runoff for the Puget Sound Basin Summer (AprilSept) streamflow decreases ~21% Winter (Oct-Mar) streamflow increases ~25% CQ #4: Based on your understanding of the above two slides, which statement best characterizes the impact of shifts in winter streamflow on the salmon life-cycle? A. B. C. D. Shifts in winter streamflow will have no discernable effect on the salmon life cycle. Shifts in winter streamflow will aid salmon in returning earlier in the fall to the rivers. Shifts in winter streamflow will may harm salmon eggs because of increased flooding. Shifts in winter streamflow will destroy the salmon life cycle. Discussion Discuss in small groups what effect increased streamflow in the winter months might have on the salmon life-cycle. Shifts in Streamflow Simulated average runoff for the Puget Sound Basin Summer (AprilSept) streamflow decreases ~21% Winter (Oct-Mar) streamflow increases ~25% CQ #5: Based on your understanding of the above two slides, which statement best characterizes the impact of shifts in summer streamflow on the salmon life-cycle? A. B. C. D. Shifts in summer streamflow will have no discernable effect on the salmon life cycle. Shifts in summer streamflow will aid salmon in returning earlier in the fall to the rivers. Shifts in summer streamflow will may harm salmon smolt trying to get downstream. Shifts in summer streamflow will completely destroy the salmon life cycle. Discussion Discuss in small groups what effect decreased streamflow in the summer months might have on the salmon life-cycle. Trends in Snow Water Equivalent • Most PNW stations show a decline in snow water equivalent • Numerous sites in the Cascades with 30% to 60% declines • Similar trends seen throughout the western United States - 73% of stations show a decline in April 1 snow water equivalent Decrease Increase Decrease Increase Main Impact: Less Snow Spring snowpack will decline as more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, particularly in transient (mid-elevation) basins ~2050s +4°F, +4.5% winter precip Impacts on Water Resources Less snow, earlier melt: More water in winter Less water in summer Increased winter flooding in many Higher temperatures: • decreased winter electricity demand • increased summer water & electricity demand Negative impacts on hydropower river basins Increased summer drought frequency production, irrigation water supply, instream flow protection More stress on urban water supplies Bottom line: Increased competition for water and increased vulnerability to drought Salmon Impacted Across Full Life-Cycle Flood s Early peak flows Warm, low streamflow ?? Observed changes in natural systems (20th century) The extent and thickness of Arctic sea-ice is declining (extent is down 10-15%; thickness is down 40%) Permafrost is thawing (with major implications for the region and the globe) The growing season has lengthened 1-4 days per decade during the last 40 years in the Northern Hemisphere, especially at northern latitudes – earlier spring & later fall Observed 20th Century Changes Plant and animal ranges are shifting northward and to higher elevations In the Northern Hemisphere, plants are flowering earlier, birds are arriving earlier, insects are emerging earlier The frequency of coral bleaching is increasing, particularly during El Niño events Mid-elevation mountain snowpack is in decline and melting earlier. Glaciers are in widespread retreat. Nearly every glacier in the Cascades and Olympics has retreated during the past 50-150 years South Cascade Glacier, 1928 (top) and 2000 (right) Photos courtesy of Dr. Ed Josberger, USGS Glacier Group, Tacoma, WA Discussion Given the slides that you’ve seen, spend a few minutes discussing the possible approaches that the Tribes might take to get federal, state, and local governments more involved in taking steps to minimize the danger to salmon in the Pacific Northwest. Questions to Consolidate Your Learning CQ #1: Based on your current knowledge, which statement is closest to your thoughts about the impact on salmon of global climate change? A. The impact on salmon, if any, will be small compared to natural changes that have occurred before. B. The impact on salmon will be minor, but won’t cause major disruptions to the salmon life-cycle. C. The impact on salmon will be significant, and will alter the salmon life-cycle. D. The impact on salmon will be catastrophic and will eliminate the species from streams and rivers in Washington. CQ #2: Based on your understanding of the above slides, what do you think best describes the local consequences of local air temperature change on the salmon in local streams? A. B. C. D. Air temperature rise will not affect salmon, because they don’t live in the air. Air temperature rise will have minimal effect on salmon because salmon can thrive in a range of different temperatures. Air temperature rise will have a detrimental effect on salmon because stream water temperatures will rise along with the air temperature. Air temperature rise will stop the salmon altogether from swimming upstream. CQ #3: Based on your understanding of the above slide, which statement best characterizes the impact of trends in spring runoff on the salmon life-cycle? A. B. C. D. Earlier spring runoff will have no discernable effect on the salmon life cycle. Earlier spring runoff will aid salmon in returning earlier to the rivers. Earlier spring runoff may disrupt the salmon life cycle. Earlier spring runoff will destroy the salmon life cycle. CQ #4: Based on your understanding of the above two slides, which statement best characterizes the impact of shifts in winter streamflow on the salmon life-cycle? A. B. C. D. Shifts in winter streamflow will have no discernable effect on the salmon life cycle. Shifts in winter streamflow will aid salmon in returning earlier in the fall to the rivers. Shifts in winter streamflow will may harm salmon eggs because of increased flooding. Shifts in winter streamflow will destroy the salmon life cycle. CQ #5: Based on your understanding of the above two slides, which statement best characterizes the impact of shifts in summer streamflow on the salmon life-cycle? A. B. C. D. Shifts in summer streamflow will have no discernable effect on the salmon life cycle. Shifts in summer streamflow will aid salmon in returning earlier in the fall to the rivers. Shifts in summer streamflow will may harm salmon smolt trying to get downstream. Shifts in summer streamflow will completely destroy the salmon life cycle. References Excellent documents regarding climate change in general, and the potential effects on the hydrology of streams and rivers in Washington in particular, can be found at the website of the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ (accessed May 20, 2011). Information, research results, and data bases are constantly changing, and this site, along with the IPCC site (IPCC 2007, below) are among the most credible. The website of the northwest Indian Fisheries Commission, http://nwifc.org/, is excellent. Also listed are two very fine books describing many features of the salmon life cycle. Bell 1996, Pacific Salmon: From Egg to Exit, Gordon Bell, Hanncock House Publishers, 1996, ISBN 0-88839-379-2 IPCC 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 – Synthesis Report, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), http://www.ipcc.ch/ (accessed May 22, 2011) Quinn 2005, The Behavior and Ecology of Pacific Salmon and Trout, Thomas P. Quinn, University of Washington Press, 2005, ISBN 0-295-98457-0 Wolf & Zuckerman 1999, Salmon Nation, Edward C. Wolf and Seth Zuckerman, editors, Ecotrust 1999, ISBN 0-9676364-0-X The opening article, “Recalling Celilo,” by Elizabeth Woody is excellent. References The following websites contain a wealth of information regarding Tribal actions to improve salmon habitat: National Congress of American Indians, http://www.ncai.org/ Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission, http://nwifc.org/ The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians, http://www.atnitribes.org/ Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission, http://www.critfc.org/ The National Tribal Environmental Council, http://www.ntec.org/ Wild Salmon Center, http://www.wildsalmoncenter.org/ Ecotrust, http://www.ecotrust.org/ For Further Study An excellent series of case studies that explores different aspects of salmon and Tribal peoples can be found at the website of the Enduring Legacies Native Case Studies Project: http://nativecases.evergreen.edu/collection/themes/salmon.html