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Climate and Other Changes:Emerging Challenges SESSION 1 Ruth Sarra Guzman Professor, Rizal Technological University and Board Chair, PATLEPAM Manila, Philippines Outline Introduction Global warming and Climate Change Science of Climate Change Impacts of Climate Change Coping with Climate Change Climate Change Links to Sustainable Development Vulnerable Sectors Which is the face of Climate Change? ? More destructive typhoons and flood Lower yields due to drought Melting snowcaps Coral bleaching Science of Climate Change Climate and Weather: What is the Difference? Weather refers to the mix of events that happen each day in our atmosphere including temperature, rainfall and humidity. Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri Sat Sun 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Climate is described in terms of the mean and variability of temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time, ranging from months to millions of years. Factors that influence the Earth’s Climate “The earth’s climate is driven by a continuous flow of energy” A variation in the Sun’s output may externally vary the amount of solar radiation received by the Earth’s atmosphere and surface Changes in the concentrations of atmospheric gases, mountain building, volcanic activity, and changes in surface albedo may cause and internal variation in the Earth’s climate What is Climate Change? “ A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or change in precipitation, temperature and wind, persisting typically decades or longer” - Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) What is Climate Change? “Change in the climate attributed directly or indirectly to human activities , in addition to natural climate variability observed, over a comparable time periods” - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Factors responsible for Climate Change “The earth’s climate is driven by a continuous flow of energy” Variations in the Earth's orbital characteristics. Volcanic eruptions Variations in solar output Variations in Atmospheric composition Greenhouse gases (GHGs) Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone, Halocarbons, Water vapor and other industrial gases Exists in the Earth’s atmosphere Natural temperature control system Allows solar radiation (sunlight) to pass through and traps infrared radiation (heat) thus warming the atmosphere The Greenhouse Effect Atmospheric levels of GHGs have nearly doubled in nearly 150 years, from 280 ppm CO2e to 430 ppm - Inter-governmental Panel on Climate C Rise in GHGs related to Human Activities Carbon dioxide: Burning of fossil fuels and deforestation Methane and nitrous oxide: Agricultural activities, land use and wetland changes, pipeline losses, and covered vented landfill emission Ozone: Automobile exhaust fumes Long-lived industrial gases: CFCs, HFCs and PFCs Global Projections Global Predictions Global surface warming of 1 - 4oC is expected in G 100 years Global Predictions Sea level rise (m) to rise by 9 to 88 cm by 2110 during the 21st century relative to 1980 to 1999 under SRES scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. Figure 10.31 Global Predictions Global precipitation is expected to increase Frequency and intensity of extreme weathers are likely to change Evidences of Climate Change Evidences of Climate Change since the late 19th century, global average temperature increased by 0.6 + 0.2 Mean sea level has risen by 10 – 20 cm and increase of ocean water temperature. Snow cover declined by 10% since the late 1960s Evidences of Climate Change G Evidences of Climate Change Increased frequency of extreme weather events Impact of Climate Change Water resources Impact of Climate Change Agriculture and food security Forest Coastal areas > Temperature increase > Sea level rise > More rain Species and natural areas Human health Impact on Flora and Fauna Predictability of season Bird and fish migration Change in plant and animal species diversity Impact on Human Systems Water system 1. Poor quality 2. Insufficient water supply and unpredictable timing Health 1. Changes in infectious disease vectors 2. Increase heat related mortality Agriculture and Forestry 1. Change in planting pattern 2. Occurrence of pests and diseases Impact on Natural Systems Enlargement of glacial lakes Thinner sea ice Short freezing season of lake and river ice Impact of Climate Change Additional people with Increased water stress (50C) 20 to 30% species at inc. high risk of extinction (2-30C) Decrease (low latitudes) (1-20C) Increase (mid & high latitudes) (1-20C) (impact is beneficial) 30% loss of coastal wetlands(3-40C) Increased mortality due to heatwaves, floods and drought (10C) Reconfiguration of coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas (50C) Impact of Climate Change in Asia Future climate change is likely to affect agriculture, risk of hunger and water resource scarcity with enhanced climate variability Decrease in Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and SouthEast Asia, About 2.5 to 10% decrease in crop yield (2020s) and 5 to 30% (2050s) Future climate change is likely to affect agriculture, risk of hunger and water resource scarcity with enhanced climate variability About 49 M people could go hungry in the next 20 to 30 years Loss of lives and of coastal ecosystems very likely due to sea-level rise and flooding Sea-water intrusion and declining river runoff is likely to increase the habitat of brackish water fisheries Marine and coastal ecosystems in Asia are likely to be affected by sea-level rise and temperature increases Coastal inundation is likely to seriously affect the aquaculture and infrastructure Stability of wetlands, mangroves and coral reefs likely to be increasingly threatened Between 24%and 30% of the coral reefs likely to be lost during the next 10 years to 30 years Future climate change is likely to continue to adversely affect human health in Asia Disease primarily associated with climate change are expected in South and SouthEast Asia Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in south Asia Climate Change and other development issues Climate Change and its linkages with Sustainable Development SD and Climate Change Sustainable development policies Sustainable development Alternative development pathways Sectoral environment/ economic policies Institutional/managerial changes Innovation/ technological change Climate Climate change change policies Avoided climate change damage Ancillary benefits/costs Spillovers/trade effects Innovation/technological change Two-way linkages between climate change and sustainable development. Source: Swart et.al (2003) Efforts to cope with the impacts of climate change and attempts to promote sustainable development share common goals and determinants • Access to resources • Equity in the distribution of resources (i.e. human and social capital) • Access to risk-sharing mechanisms • Abilities of decisionsupport mechanisms to cope with uncertainty Nonetheless, some development activities exacerbate climate-related vulnerabilities High rise building in urban areas Processing plants Land use change/Mining in natural forests (Irresponsible mining) Road development Climate change will result in net costs into the future; these costs will grow over time By 2080, it is likely that : 1.1 to 3.2 billion people will be experiencing water scarcity 200 to 600 million will be hungry 2 to 7 million more per year affected by coastal flooding Climate change will impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways as measured, for example, by long-term progress towards the Millennium Development Goals Damage estimates as % of global GDP Climate Change and its linkages with Disaster Risk Management CLIMATE CHANGE – DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT CONVERGENCE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT Geophysical Hazards Climate/Weather Related Hazards Risk Reduction Measures CLIMATE CHANGE Increase in Temp. Sea Level Rise Extreme Weather Events Adaptation Measures Mitigation Measures Imperatives to address the Climate Change Challenge The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) “Laid the foundations of the contemporary global environmental policy “ Adopted on 9 May 1992 in New York and signed by more than 150 countries and the European Community. “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” It contains commitments for all Parties to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. “ While the Convention encouraged industrialized countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so”. Adopted by consensus at COP-3 in December 1997 Contains legally binding emissions targets for industrialized (Annex I) countries Annex 1 countries commit themselves to reducing their collective emissions of six key greenhouse gases by at least 5%. must be achieved by the period 2008-2012. “Demonstrable progress” must be made by 2005. Division of Parties by Annex Annex II Australia / Austria / Belgium / Canada / Denmark / EC / Finland / France / Germany / Greece /Iceland / Ireland / Italy / Japan / Luxembourg / Netherlands / New Zealand / Norway / Portugal / Spain / Sweden / Switzerland / Turkey / United Kingdom / USA Belarus / Bulgaria / Croatia / Czech Republic / Estonia / Hungary / Latvia / Liechtenstein / Lithuania / Monaco / Poland / Romania / Russian Federation / Slovakia / Slovenia / Ukraine Non-Annex I Countries = All the Rest of Ratifying Countries Article 12: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) • Assist Parties not included in Annex I in achieving sustainable development • Assist Parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments under Article 3 • Assistance Mechanism is through funding of CDM Projects in Developing Countries Vulnerability to Climate Change Vulnerability: Agriculture Sector Current climate Agricultural production is highly vulnerable to increasing temperature, particularly, night time temperatures, changes in rainfall events/patterns, particularly those due to extreme weather/climate events, and high winds during tropical cyclone occurrences. Future climate Food security in the Philippines hinges in the agricultural production of the country, principally on sufficiency of rice production. Vulnerability: Coastal Sector Sea level rise land loss and population displacement increased flooding of low-lying coastal areas agricultural impacts resulting from inundation, salinization and land loss impacts on coastal aquaculture impacts on coastal tourism Increase sea temperature/ Increase CO2 coral bleaching ocean acidification impacts on fishery Socio-economic factors Vulnerability: Coastal Sector Vulnerability: Health Sector Indirect cause: Climate sensitive infectious diseases (vector, water borne) • The number of leptospirosis cases is high when the volume of rainfall is high. • The number of malaria cases is high when the mean temperature is high. Direct cause: Floods, storm surge Vulnerability: Forestry and Watershed Sector The sector now accounts for up to 20-25 percent of the current yearly GHG emissions worldwide. Unsustainable change of land uses poses a big threat to the environment. Loss of forest habitat due to destruction, degradation and climate change is projected to increase plant and animal species loss. Loss of watershed values. Vulnerability to specific impacts of climate change will be most severe when and where they are felt together with stresses from other sources Habitat Climate Invasive ChangeChange Species TROPICAL Ove rexpl oitat ion Pollut ion (nitrogen, phosphorus) Habitat Change: Very high impact, Increasing trend Climate Change: Low impact, Increasing trend Pollution: Very high impact, Increasing trend Invasive Species: High impact, Continuing trend Over-exploitation: Low Impact, Continuing trend Responses to Climate Change RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE “ No Regrets Approach “ Adaptation Mitigation Adaptation Mitigation An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Adaptation Practical steps to protect countries and communities from the likely disruption and damage that will result from effects of climate change Climate Change Mitigation Strategies “ Activities expected to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.” Four Areas of Mitigation 1. Increasing GHG sinks 2. Material Replacement 3. Energy Conservation 4. Fuel Substitution All Sectors and Regions have potential to contribute to reduce GHG emissions or implement CC mitigation measures Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes. Options to reduce GHG emmisions in the energy sector Technologies and Practices AVAILABLE NOW • efficiency; • fuel switching; • renewable energy (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); COMMERCIALIZED BEFORE 2030 • biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities; • advanced renewable energy (tidal and waves energy, concentrating solar, solar and solar PV) CCS- carbon capture and storage Potential share of global electricity supply in 2030 for carbon prices < US$50/tCO2eq: Renewable energy: 30-35% (now 18%) Nuclear energy: 18% (now 16%) Options to Reduce GHGs emissions in agriculture Cropland management Restoration of organic soils Rice management Options to reduce GHG emmisions in Forestry Protection of Forest Resources Reforestation Climate Change Adaptation Strategies “ Practical steps to protect countries and communities from the likely disruption and damage that will result from effects of climate change” http://www.flickr.com/photos/twml abs/29463820/ Why adapt to climate change? Adaptation Options 1. Bearing losses 2. Sharing losses 3. Modifying threats 4. Preventing effects 5. Changing uses http://www.flickr.com/photos/twml abs/29463820/ 6. Changing location 7. Research 8. Education, information and behavior change Adaptation: Agriculture 1o C temp increase in June to August Use of more disease and pest tolerant crop varieties Livestock production Plant native grassland species Fishery Breeding fish tolerant to high water temperature Develop Agri-Biotechnologies Improve crossbreeds of high productivity animals Improve agri- infrastructures Improve irrigation systems and their efficiency Adaptation: Agriculture (Gaps and Needs) creating enabling environment for private investments in agriculture climate-fit crop programming and climate-based cropping mix in highly vulnerable agricultural areas; production maximization in climate-proofed farming areas, particularly those with moderate rainfall; developing policy environments for sustainable development of highland ecosystems (500-1000 masl) for future expansion areas for food and nutrition security without further intrusion nor desecration of remaining forestlands; increasing local capacity to compete with global products within local markets; and harmonizing food and bio-energy development and other economic uses of agricultural activities, and technological support systems for food security Adaptation: Hydrology and water resources conversion of cropland to forest (grassland) selection and cultivation of new drought-resistant varieties are effective measures to prevent water scarcity Water saving schemes for irrigation Adaptation: Coastal and low lying areas Coastal protection constructions in Asia for 5-year to 1,000year storm-surge elevations need to be considered. Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) provides an effective coastal protection strategy Adaptation: Natural Ecosystems Improved tree plantation development and reforestation technologies Improvement of protection from fires, insects and diseases Reducing logging waste, thru soil conservation practices, Carbon-efficient wood utilization Adaptation: Human Health monitoring of diseases benchmarking of potential impacts of climate variability and change on human health Planning and Policy Formulation Mainstreaming sustainable development policies and the inclusion of climateproofing concepts in national development initiatives are likely to reduce pressure on natural resources and improve management of environmental risks The Intergovernmental Panel on CC 4th Assessment Report 2007 (AR4): • Warming of the Climate System is UNEQUIVOCAL! ACT NOW BEFORE EVERYTHING GOES UP IN SMOKE By Sebastian Niedlich (Grabthar) on Flickr Thank you