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EEA
02 March 2016
Climate-ADAPT „Research projects page submissions – Finalized projects
a) Template Project descriptions
Name of projects: Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming - IMPACT2C
Project logo:
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The Challenge: Political discussions on the European goal to limit global warming to 2°C above preindustrial demands that discussions are informed by the best available science on projected impacts.
Moreover, a key concern for policymakers is the difference, and possible benefits, from keeping
warming to below 2 degrees. This information can serve as a major motivation in global negotiations
and actions, in relation to carbon emissions. In this context, IMPACT2C pursued a multi-climate and
multi-impact model approach which would deliver robust information in relation to climate change and
impacts in Europe, and key non-European vulnerability hotspots, in +1.5, +2, and +3 degree Celsius
worlds.
Project objectives:
The overall objectives of IMPACT2C were:
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To quantify projected changes in climate in Europe and key non-European vulnerable
regions under a +2 °C world, using a range of different global and regional climate models.
To quantify projected impacts in a number of different economic sectors under a two degree
world.
To quantify projected impacts in a two degree world from a cross-sectoral perspective, e.g.
for particularly vulnerable areas that are subject to multiple impacts where cumulative
effects may arise (e.g. in the Mediterranean region) and in relation to cross-cutting themes
(e.g. cities and the built environment).
Methodology:
IMPACT2C utilised a range of models within a multi-disciplinary international expert team and
assessed impacts in a number of different economic sectors including, water, energy, infrastructure,
coasts, tourism, forestry, agriculture, ecosystems services, and health and air quality-climate
interactions.
IMPACT2C introduced key innovations, namely:
1) Harmonised socio-economic scenarios to ensure that both individual and cross-sector
assessments were aligned to the 2°C (and 1.5°C and 3°C) scenarios for both impacts and
adaptation, e.g. in relation to land-use pressures between agriculture and forestry.
2) A core theme of uncertainty, and pursued a methodological framework which integrated the
uncertainties within and across the different sectors, in a consistent way. In doing so,
analysis of adaptation responses under uncertainty was enhanced.
3) A cross-sectoral perspective was adopted to complement the sector analyses. A number of
case studies were undertaken for particularly vulnerable areas, subject to multiple impacts,
with the focus being on cross-sectoral interactions, and cross-cutting themes (cities). The
project also assessed climate change impacts in some of the world’s most vulnerable regions:
Bangladesh, Africa (Nile and Niger basins), and the Maldives. In addition, the project
endeavoured to communicate the results of the project to policymakers by developing a
number of policy briefs, which summarised key results and policy implications.
Results: The various analyses undertaken in IMPACT2C led to the following major results for a future
two degree world:
 In most regions of Europe, projected surface warming will exceed the global mean 2o C
global warming.
 Projections of annual mean precipitation change indicate wetter conditions in northern
Europe and drier conditions in southern Europe.
 A European-wide increase in the frequency of extreme events is expected.
 Heatwaves are projected to double while extreme precipitation events tend to become
more intense.
 The spatial and sectoral distribution of impacts is complex within Europe with some
areas and sectors potentially benefiting, while others may suffer negative impacts.
 For core summer tourism, areas of central and Northern Europe may experience an
increase in their attractiveness, whereas some areas of the Mediterranean chiefly
Spain, Italy, and Greece, may experience warming which sends them over an optimal
comfort level for tourism.
 For winter tourism demand, analysis shows that up to 10 million overnight stays are at
risk, with Italy and Austria being most exposed to this impact.
 In the energy sector, changes in wind energy potential, and solar photovoltaic potential
show little to no change in a two degree world across most parts of Europe. Larger
changes are projected for changes in gross hydropower potential, with areas in
northern Europe increasing by up to 20%, while areas in southern Europe may
experience reductions of up to 20%.
 In the health sector, changes in ozone and particulate matter in a two degree world are
shown to be small, with air pollution policy exerting a more important effect on
changes in these pollutants.
 Heat mortality in Europe is expected to increase by an average of around 23,000
additional heat related deaths. Countries particularly exposed to these impacts are
Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania.
 In the agriculture sector, there is a projected overall loss in rainfed crop calorie yield of
around 1.6%, with robust negative impacts being concentrated in western and
southern Europe.
 In the forestry sector, changes in productivity are projected to increase across Europe
by between 10% and 20%.
 In the water sector, extreme flood magnitudes are projected to increase substantially in
parts of central and southern Europe, whereas in northern Europe changes in extreme
flood magnitude are projected to decrease. Streamflow droughts on the other hand
are projected to become more intense in southern Europe, whereas in parts of
Scandinavia and eastern Europe streamflow drought may become less intense.
 In coastal areas, flooding associated with sea level rise are projected to be upwards of
50 million Euro per annum, in the UK, Netherlands, Belgium and France.
 Projections of changes in mean surface temperature for western and eastern Africa
show that the projected warming is greater than the global mean of +2o C.
 Projections of changes in annual precipitation over western Africa indicate a modest
increase, whereas over eastern Africa no clear trend is projected.
Summaries for policymakers:
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IMPACT2C Interactive web-atlas [www.atlas.impact2c.eu]
Shows the impacts of a 2°C global warming on various European sectors and some
key vulnerable regions outside Europe.
Policy-Brief#1: Analysis of early IMPACT2C climate modelling results
[http://impact2c.hzg.de/imperia/md/content/csc/policy_update_on_2c_warming_
feb_2014.pdf]
This policy brief provides a summary of the initial findings of the project, reporting
key lessons from the climate modelling analysis.
Policy-brief #2: IMPACT2C modelling results: climate change and sea-level rise from
a 2°C climate
[http://impact2c.hzg.de/imperia/md/content/csc/policy_brief_2_our_common_fut
ures.pdf]
This policy brief provides a summary of the detailed regional climate modelling
results for Europe.
Policy-brief #3: IMPACT2C modelling results for a 2°C climate for key global
vulnerable regions [http://www.climate-servicecenter.de/imperia/md/content/csc/impactc_policy_brief_3.pdf].
This policy brief provides a summary of the findings on the impacts of 2°C on key
vulnerability global hot-spots, focusing on the Maldives, Bangladesh and the Niger
and Upper Blue Nile River Basins in Africa.
For more information, the major results from IMPACT2C are detailed in a user-friendly web
atlas, which is available here: www.atlas.impact2c.eu
Project partners:
HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM GEESTHACHT ZENTRUM FUR MATERIAL UND KUSTENFORSCHUNG GMBH
Germany
POTSDAM INSTITUT FUER KLIMAFOLGENFORSCHUNG Germany
UNI RESEARCH AS Norway
METEOROLOGISK INSTITUTT Norway
SVERIGES METEOROLOGISKA OCH HYDROLOGISKA INSTITUT Sweden
JRC -JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE- EUROPEAN COMMISSION Belgium
AGENZIA NAZIONALE PER LE NUOVE TECNOLOGIE,L'ENERGIA E LO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO
SOSTENIBILE Italy
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRS-IPSL France
METEO-FRANCE France
UNIVERSITAET GRAZ Austria
JOANNEUM RESEARCH FORSCHUNGSGESELLSCHAFT MBH Austria
INTERNATIONALES INSTITUT FUER ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANALYSE Austria
DANMARKS METEOROLOGISKE INSTITUT Denmark
KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT Netherlands
WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITEIT Netherlands
TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF CRETE Greece
PAUL WATKISS ASSOCIATES LTD United Kingdom
UNIVERSITE DE LAUSANNE Switzerland
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON United Kingdom
SEI OXFORD OFFICE LIMITED*STOCKHOLM ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE OXFORD OFFICE United
Kingdom
MET OFFICE United Kingdom
MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND ENVIRONMENT Maldives
BANGLADESH CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES ASSOCIATION Bangladesh
INTERNATIONAL WATER MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE Sri Lanka
STICHTING WETLANDS INTERNATIONAL Netherlands
WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION Switzerland
INSTITUTE OF WATER MODELLING Bangladesh
AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATION DEVELOPMENT Niger
EUROPEAN CLIMATE FORUM E.V. Germany
b) Template Facts
Funding instrument: EC 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development
Start Date: 1/10/2011
End date: 30/9/2015
Duration: 48 months
Project coordinator: GERICS Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG).
Project website: http://impact2c.hzg.de/
Contact: Prof. Dr. Daniela Jacob, Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz Zentrum
Geesthacht (HZG), Chilehaus – Eingang B, Fischertwiete 1, 20095 Hamburg, Germany. Email:
[email protected]
c) Further advice and contact:
Examples of project sheets can be found at: http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/research-projects
In case of questions please contact Andreia Gonçalves Sousa ([email protected]).