Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Thefourthindustrialrevolution KlausSchwab ThequestionisnotamIgoingtobedisruptedbutwhenisdisruptioncoming,whatformwill ittakeandhowwillitaffectmeandmyorganisation? `introduction Technologiesareamplifyingeachotherinafusionoftechnologiesacrossthephysicaldigital andbiologicalworlds.Wearewitnessingprofoundshiftsacrossallindustriesmarketbythe emergenceofnewbusinessmodels,thedisruptionofincumbentsandthereshapingof production,consumption,transportationanddeliverysystems.Onthesocialfronta paradigmshiftisunderwayinhowweworkandcommunicate,aswellashowweexpress, inform,andentertainourself. Decisionmakersaretoooftencaughtintraditionallinear(non-disruptive)thinkingortoo absorbedbyimmediateconcernstothinkstrategicallyabouttheforcesofdisruptionand innovationshapingourfuture. Typicalcharacteristicsofthisindustrialrevolution: Velocity:Thisrevolutionisevolvingatanexponentialratherthanalinearpace, Breathanddepth:Itleadstounprecedentedparadigmshiftsineconomy,business,society andindividually.Itischangingthe“what”,the“how”ofdoingthingsbutalso“who”weare. Systemimpact:Itinvolvesthetransformationofentiresystemsacross(andwithin) countries,companiesandsocietyasawhole. Impactonpower Byenablingsmartfactories,thefourthindustrialrevolutioncreatesaworldinwhichvirtual andphysicalsystemsofmanufacturinggloballycooperatewitheachotherinaflexibleway. Thisenablestheabsolutecustomizationofproductsandthecreationofnewoperating models.Digitalbusinesseshavemarginalcoststhattendstowardszero.Additionally,the realityofthedigitalageisthatmanynewbusinessesprovide“informationalgoods”with storage,transportationandreplicationcoststhatarevirtualnil.Ourdeviceswillbecomean increasingpartofourpersonalecosystem,listeningtous,anticipatingourneedsand helpinguswhenrequired,evenifnotasked. Thechallengescreatedbythefourthindustrialrevolutionappeartobemostlyonthesupply side,intheworldofworkandproduction.Asaresult,thegreatbeneficiariesarethe providersofintellectualorphysicalcapital,theinnovatorsofintellectualorphysicalcapital, theinnovators,theinvestorsandtheshareholderswhichexplainstherisinggapinwealth betweenthosewhodependsontheirlabourandthosewhoowncapital.Theconcentration ofbenefitsandvalueinjustasmallpercentageofpeopleisalsoexacerbatedbytheso- calledplatformeffect,inwhichdigitally-drivenorganisationscreatenetworksthatmatch buyersandsellersofawidevarietyofproductsandservicesandtherebyenjoyincreasing returnstoscale.Theconsequenceoftheplatformeffectisaconcentrationoffewbut powerfulplatformswhichdominatetheirmarkets Drivers/impact Thedigitalrevolutioniscreatingradicallynewapproachesthatrevolutionizethewayin whichindividualsandinstitutionsengageandcollaborate.Blockchainisanexampleof “distributiveledger”.Technologybasedplatformsmakepossiblewhatisnowcalledthe on-demandeconomy.Theseplatforms,whichareeasytouseonasmartphone,convene people,assetsanddata,creatingentirelynewwaysofconsuminggoodsandservices.Uber showsthedisruptivepowerofthesetechnologyplatforms.Allplatformshaveonethingin common:matchingsupplyanddemandinaveryaccessible(lowcost)way,byproviding consumerswithdiversegoods,andbuyallowingbothpartiestointeractandgivefeedback, theseplatformsthereforeseedtrust.Inaddition,whenusingdigitalplatforms,themarginal costofproducingeachadditionalproduct,goodorservicetendstowardszero. Wearestillatthebeginningofthefourthindustrialrevolution,anditwillrequireentirely neweconomicandorganizationalstructurestograspitsfullvalue.Thecompetitiverules willbedifferent.Toremaincompetitive,companiesmustbeatthefrontierofinnovationin allitsforms,whichmeansthestrategieswhichprimarilyfocusonreducingcostswillbeless effectivethanthosewhicharebasedonofferingproductsandservicesinmoreinnovative ways.Establishedcompaniesarebeingputunderextremepressurebyemergingdisruptors andinnovatorsfromotherindustriesandcountries.Thereasonwhythenewtechnology revolutionwillprovokemoreupheavalare:speed,breathanddepthandthecomplete transformationofentiresystems.Organisationshastooperateandorganizewithspeedand agility. Multiplesourcesofdisruptiontriggerdifferentformsofbusinessimpact.Inthesupplychain newtechnologiescreateentirelynewwaysofservingexistingneedsandsignificantly disruptexistingvaluechains,e.g.3-Dprintingwillmakedistributedmanufacturingand spare-partmaintenanceeasierandcheaper.Realtimeinformationandintelligencewill provideuniqueinsightsoncustomersandassetperformancethatwillamplifyother technologicaltrends.Digitizationalsoenableslargeincumbentstocrossindustries boundariesbyleveragingtheircustomerbase,infrastructureortechnology. Majorshiftsonthedemandsidearealsodisruptingbusiness.Increasingtransparency, customerengagementandnewpatternsofconsumerbehaviour(buildonmobileaccess) forcecompaniestoadaptthewaytheydesign,marketanddeliverexistingandnewproduct andservices.Thisisforcingallcompaniestore-examinethewaytheydobusinessand takesdifferentforms.Disruptionwillaffectboththedemandandsupplysidesofthe business. Majorimpacts -customerexpectationsareshifting -productsarebeingenhancedbydata,whichimprovesassetproductivity -newpartnershipsarebeingformedascompanieslearntheimportanceofnewformsof collaborationand -operatingmodelsarebeingtransformedintonewdigitalmodels. Customers(BtoBandBtoC)areincreasinglyatthecentreofthedigitaleconomy,whichisall abouthowtheyareserved.Customerexpectationsarebeingredefinedintoexperiences. Customerscanbeidentifiedbasedontheirwillingnesstosharedataandinteract.Theworld ismovingmuchmoretopeer-to-peersharinganduser-generatedcontent.Thisisanowworld,whichrequirescompaniestorespondinrealtimewherevertheyareortheir customersorclientsmaybe.Productsandservicesareenhancedwithdigitalcapabilities thatincreasetheirvalue(liketesla).Dataandanalyticsarealsotransformingtheroleof maintenance.Nolongerlookforspecificfaultsbutitismoreaboutperformance benchmarks(suppliedbysensors)Newbusinessmodelscanbebasedonserviceslikeasset performanceoractualperformance.Thecombinationofsensorsandanalyticsenablestire companiestomonitordriverperformance,fuelconsumptionandtireweartooffera completeend-to-endservice. Collaborationismoreimportantthanever,companiesneedtogowellbeyondmarketing andsalesagreementstounderstandhowtoadoptcomprehensivecollaborative approaches. Rethinkoperatingmodelsmeansthatplatformsenabledbythenetworkeffectsof digitalizationareimportant.Inaglobalworldtheseplatformsintimatelyconnecttothe physicalworld.Platformstrategiescombinedwiththeneedtobemorecustomer-centric andtoenhanceproductswithdata,areshiftingmanyindustriesfromafocusonselling productstodeliveringservices.Frugalbusinessmodelsusetheopportunitiesaffordedby theinteractionofdigital,physicalandhumanrealmstoopenupnewformsofoptimization suchaseffortsbyMichelintoprovidehigh-qualityservicesatlowcost. Tobecompetitiveinthefuturethenatureoforganizationalstructureswillhavetobe rethought.Flexiblehierarchies,newwaysofmeasuring(processbasedaccountability insteadofoutcomebasedaccountability)andnewrewardingsystemstoattractskilled talent.Organizationswillshiftfromhierarchicalstructurestomorenetworkedand collaborativemodels.Organisationswillbecomeincreasinglyorganizedarounddistributed teams. Thedigitalopportunitiesinproductsareoftennottranslatedintojusthigherpricesorlower costsbutalsointofundamentalchangeofthebusinessmodel.Thisisdrivenbyend-to-end approach,fromserviceacquisitiontodelivery.Thesecombination-basedbusinessmodels illustratetheextentofthedistributionthatoccurswhendigitalassetsandinteresting combinationsofexistingdigitalplatformsareusedtoreorganizerelationshipswithphysical assets.Thefocusistobuiltonasuperiorexperiencecombinedwithreducedtransaction andfrictioncosts.Thesecompaniesmatchdemandandsupplyinarapidandconvenient mannerwhichsidestepsthebusinessmodelsofincumbents.Fastmovingcompetitors provokeadisaggregationofthemoretraditionalindustrysilosandvaluechainsandalso disintermediatetheexistingrelationshipbetweenbusinessesandtheircustomers.Inalmost allindustries,digitaltechnologieshavecreatednew,disruptivewaysofcombiningproducts andservicesandintheprocesshavedissolvedthetraditionalboundariesbetween industries.(seetheautomotiveindustryandtechnology).Thelevelofdisruptionis differentinthevariousindustries,butinaworldcharacterizedbyuncertaintytheability toadaptiscritical.Ifacompanyisunabletomoveupthecurveitmaybepushedoffit. Thecompaniesthatsurviveorthrivewillneedtomaintainandcontinuallysharpentheir innovativeedge.Smallandmediumsizedenterpriseswillhavetheadvantagesofspeedand agilityneededtodealwithdisruptionandinnovation.Largeorganizationsbycontrastwill survivebyleveragingtheirscaleadvantagesandinvestingintheirecosystemofstart-ups andSMEsbyacquiringandpartneringwithsmallerandmoreinnovativebusinesses. Inallmomentsofmajortechnologicalchange,people,companies andinstitutionsfeelthedepthofthechange,buttheyareoften overwhelmedbyit,outofsheerignoranceofitseffects. Samenvattingvanhetboek“Thefourthindustrialrevolution”vanKlausSchwab,World EconomicForum(2016). Vooraldehoofdstukkendiegaanoverdeimpactopondernemingen,supplychainsen klantengedrag. ProfDrC.N.A.Molenaar 3maart2016