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Transcript
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 1 NATURE AND FUNCTIONS International financial markets undertake intermediation by transferring purchasing power from lenders and investors to parties who desire to acquire assets that they expect to yield future benefits. International financial transactions involve exchange of assets between residents of different financial centres across national boundaries. International financial centres are reservoirs of savings and transfer them to their most efficient use irrespective of where the savings are generated. There are three important functions of financial markets. First, the interactions of buyers and sellers in the markets determine the prices of the assets traded which is called the price discovery process. Secondly, the financial markets ensure liquidity by providing a mechanism for an investor to sell a financial asset. Finally, the financial markets reduce the cost of transactions and information. MONEY AND CAPITAL MARKETS Like their domestic counterpart, international financial markets may be divided into money and capital markets. Money markets deal with assets created or traded with relatively short maturity, say less than a year. Capital markets deal with instruments whose maturity exceeds one year or which lack definite maturity. Again on lines similar to domestic markets, in the international financial markets also we have primary and secondary markets dealing with issue of new instruments and trading in existing instruments and negotiable debt instruments, respectively. In international financial markets as in the domestic markets there is a symbiotic relationship between primary and secondary markets. International Financial Markets and India 2 CATEGORIES OF MARKETS According to Garbbe (see reference at the end of the chapter) international financial markets consist of international markets for foreign exchange, Euro currencies and Euro bonds. In view of the development and rapid growth of swaps and globalisation of equity markets, international financial markets have been categorised into five markets here: foreign exchange market; lending by financial institutions; issue and trading of negotiable instruments of debt; issue and trading of equity securities; and lastly internationally arranged swaps. The rates of foreign exchange as well as interest rates fluctuate and to hedge against the risk of loss arising out of changes in them derivative instruments are traded in the organised exchanges as well as in over-the-counter markets. Most of the derivatives except the interest rate swaps are short term in nature. Derivatives involve creation of assets that are based on other financial assets. GROWTH OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS Since the 1960’s, the growth of international financial transactions has been profoundly influenced by the growth in international trade involving exchange of goods and services. The value of imports in US dollars for the world as a whole went up in the last five decades by a multiple of 14 from about $ 590 billion in 1960 to about $ 8000 billion in 2000. While international trade can exist in the absence of international financing arrangements as under direct exchange, barter and cash payment in gold, there are no international finance or markets where no goods and services are exchanged between residents of different countries. There would be no reason for borrowing, lending or investing between countries since nothing could be bought with the product of loan or investment. Benefits International financial markets and the transactions therein have however facilitated and helped the expansion of international trade based on comparative absolute advantage resulting in welfare benefits in terms of higher income among participant nations. Further, the growth of international financial markets has facilitated cross-country financial flows which contribute to a more efficient allocation of resources. Efficiency in use rather than origin of or abundance governs allocation of resources internationally. This means that potentially high return projects in countries with low savings will not be neglected in favour of low return projects in high saving countries simply because of where savings are generated.1 American and British institutional money is flooding foreign markets. 1. Ephrain, Clark, Michael, Levasseur and Patrick, Rousseau, International Finance, Chapman and Hall, London, 1993. Final Proof-3-02-09\SK Stock Components of Net at year International Financing end1985 (Billions of US $) Outstanding amount at end 2000 CHANGES 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Total International Claims of reporting banks 3137.1 657.2 764.8 510.9 807.1 589.0 (-)103.4 146.7 316.5 263.2 608.1 Minus·lnter bank redepositing 1652.1 4522.0 444.8 250.9 397.1 209.0 (-)183.3 -18.3 121.5 83.2 314.1 184.1 719.8 228.1 (-)214.3 658.7 6262.8 A. Net International bank credit 1485.0 205.0 320.0 260.0 410.0 380.0 465.0 115.0 19.8 7.4 B. Net Money market instruments 16.0 13.4 23.4 19.5 6.9 32.0 532.7 1142.6 80.0 165.0 195.0 180.0 330.0 420.0 34.9 40.4 72.1 140.2 17.4 41.1 331.0 276.1 1171.8 10764.4 61.8 1113.1 4501.6 66.4 86.5 346.1 Total completed bond and note issues - 220.5 180.0 220.7 263.6 239.4 Minus: redemption and repurchases - 64.6 73.0 82.6 89.4 108.4 149.3 223.0 306.8 227.9 291.0 363.4 460.5 497.5 – – – 319.7 332.7 437.1 381.8 536.8 859.6 1014.0 1167.8 1163.9 1148.2 6168.7 C. Net bond and note financing 572.5 155.9 107.0 138.1 174.3 131.0 170.5 109.7 133.3 153.9 245.8 496.2 553.5 676.3 – – – D. Total international financing (A+B+C) 2073.5 374.3 450.4 417.2 591.2 543.0 285.4 315.1 397.5 474.1 593.1 957.3 1038.3 792.7 – – – Minus: double counting E. Total net 133.5 1940.0 79.3 50.4 67.6 76.2 78.0 295.0 400.0 350.0 515.0 465.0 40.4 70.1 127.5 69.1 48.1 197.3 245.0 245.0 27.0 405.0 545.0 760.0 227.7 565.0 163.3 875.0 International Financial Markets Final Proof-3-02-09\SK Table 1.1: Estimated Net Financing in International Financial Markets (1985–2000) – – – 6410.4 295.7 11016.4 International Financing Source: BI8, Annual Reports 1991, 1994, 1998 and 1999 and International Banking and Financial Market Developments, November 1994, May 1995, March 1998, March 1999 and June 2000. 3 International Financial Markets and India 4 SEGMENTATION OF THE GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET Martin Feldstein in a study on Global Capital Flows1, argues that the world capital market remains essentially segmented along national lines. “Capital may be free to move internationally, but its owners and managers prefer to keep all of each individual nation’s savings at home.”2 Feldstein argues that the best evidence of this segmentation is the strong correlation between national rates of saving and investment. He observes that if there were perfectly integrated world capital markets, the differences in national savings rates would not lead to differences among countries in national rates of investment in business equipment and inventories. Capital would flow from the high saving countries to the best investment opportunities around the globe. Feldstein finds that much of the capital that moves internationally is pursuing temporary gains and shifts quickly as conditions change. The large gross international flows of funds are often part of offsetting transactions that leave no net transfer of capital from one country to another. Feldstein argues that the segmented nature of the world capital market is confirmed by the strong, homecountry bias of institutional portfolios. Only 10 per cent of the value of assets in the 500 largest institutional portfolios in the world is invested in foreign securities despite the advice of economists and financial analysts who advocate global diversification as a way of increasing returns and reducing overall portfolio risk. No country can count on sustained inflows of foreign capital to finance domestic investment even when their local investment opportunities are attractive. Mexico’s economic crisis in 1994 broke out because it let its savings rates slip from 14 to 10 per cent and looked to the rest of the world to finance its savings gap. Mexico’s low saving rate was the problem because of the limited international flow of capital. The crisis arose out of the fact that too little capital crosses borders and not too much. ESTIMATED NET FINANCING IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS While world imports went up by a multiple of 14, the growth of international financial activity as measured by the external assets of banks reporting to the Bank for International Settlements3 rose from US$ 37.7 billion in 1968 to 1. 2. 3. The Economist, June 24, 1995. Ibid. Includes Austria, Belgium, Luxembourgh, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Japan, United States, Bahamas, Bahrain, Cayman Islands, Hongkong, Netherlands Antilles, Singapore and branches of US banks in Panama. Final Proof-3-02-09\SK International Financial Markets 5 $ 11,016.4 billion in 2000. Apart from the external assets of banks there was a large growth in Euro notes and Euro bonds. Table 1.1 presents the estimated net financing in international financial markets between 1985–2000. The Table presents, apart from external claims, net international bank credit, net money market instruments (including commercial paper, short-term Euro notes and medium-term notes), bonds and total net international financing. Outstanding net international bank credit largely consisting of syndicated loans rose from $ 1,485 billion in 1985 to $ 4,501.6 billion in 2000 (a 203 per cent increase); money market instruments from $ 16 billion to $ 346.1 billion (2,063 per cent); bond financing from $ 572.5 billion to $ 6,168.7 billion (947.5 per cent); and total net international financing from $ 1,940 billion to $ 11,016.4 billion (468 per cent). MONEY MARKET AND CAPITAL MARKET INSTRUMENTS In the international money market, short-term notes, bankers’ acceptances including, Euro commercial paper are traded. The assets created and traded have relatively short maturities. The outstanding amount at end-2000 was $ 333.8 billion consisting of commercial paper ($ 223.3 billion) and other shortterm paper ($ 110.5 billion). International capital markets deal in assets with maturities above one year or those which lack definite maturities. These instruments consist of Euro mediumterm notes ($ 879.3 billion at end 2000), bonds ($ 6,049.7 billions at end-2000); and Euro loans ($ 7,878 billion at end-2000). The secondary markets are important for securities and negotiated debt instruments. The securities consist of certificates of deposits and bankers acceptances. EURO MARKET In international lending and trading of securities some operations are called ‘Euro’. It refers to types of financial activity that take place outside the countries in whose currencies they are denominated. Euro dollar markets are offshore money and capital markets, in the sense that the currency denomination is not the official currency of the country where the transaction takes place. The term ‘Euro’ was first used for US dollar deposits made in London after the Second World War when the US dollar replaced pound sterling as the leading international currency. The term Euro dollar market was later generalised to Euro currency when offshore centres for other currencies emerged. The reason for the popularity of Euro dollar or Euro markets was that Euro markets were less regulated than the U.S. markets. Further, the absence of reserve requirements, Final Proof-3-02-09\SK