Download Maximo Torero

“THE CHALLENGE AND
OPPORTUNITY OF PRIVATE
SECTOR CLIMATE
RESILIENCE”
Maximo Torero, IFPRI
[email protected]
Cartagena 2016
Photo: S. Allen, IFPRI
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND RISK
• Moderate consensus
that temperate regions
will have increased
variability in temperature
and rainfall
• No consensus on
tropical regions (IPCC
AR4)
• But increased mean
temperature increases
risk
Climate change and Agriculture:
what can we quantify?
Climate models:
Global Circulation Models  changes in
weather patterns
(here 4 different models will be used)
Changes in
yields
Climate
Change
• Water
• Temperature
• CO2 fertilization
Changes in
Pest and
Disease
Extreme
events
Agronomic models:
Crop models  changes in yields at
constant economic conditions
(here different models will be used
based on AgMip)
Economic models:
Impact on the economic systems,
feedback of investments, specialization…
(here we use the MIRAGRODEP CGE)
Climate Change Price Impacts
SCENARIO RESULTS
Figure 1. Impacts of climate change on global yields, area, production and prices of the 5-crop aggregate relative to
baseline values in 2050 for each Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP) compared across five models
Note: ENV = ENVISAGE, FAR = FARM, IMP = IMPACT, MGN = MAGNET, MGP = MAgPIE.
Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, LEI-WUR, PIK, Purdue, USDA-ERS, IDS
Average Impact of climate change (yield
effects) on fruits and vegetables consumption
per capita, %, by 2050
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
APEC (Total)
North
America
South
America
Oceania
South East
Asia
East Asia
High income
Countries
Upper and
Middle
Income
countries
Low and
Middle
income
countries
Geographical grouping
Income grouping
Advanced
farmers
PPPs
(Publicprivate)
Commercial
smallholders
Semi-commercial
Small holders
• Private for-profit sector
Subsistence
smallholders
• Public sector
• Civil organizations
Social and Economic benefits
• Private for-profit sector
(input industry, agroSuitable for all categories
dealers, processors ad
• Private for-profit sector
business and personal
through BOP sales
presentation
Suitable for
categoriesnot-for-profit
• allPrivate
• Public sector,
business and personal
sector (i.e. foundations)
governments, NARS, CG
centers (AFS)
• Ngo & foundations
buyers of produce)
• Public sector
• Civil organizations
presentation
• Public sector
PPPs
(Private-private)
• Civil society organizations
• Other civil society
organizations
• R&D partnerships
• Connectivity
• Extension partnerships • Contract farming
• Seed system
Public goods called for at each stage
Stages of progression
• Financial services
• Market access
Examples of interventions to
strengthen value chains and linking
with private sector
Policy reforms; tax and trade
Third party validation of quality in
milk marketing in Vietnam
Contract farming incentives to
increase regularity of delivery of
milk in Senegal, with added
incentives for child nutrition
Quality grading of onions in
Senegal
Design of working capital loans for
farmers’ organizations in Uganda
to support aggregation for
marketing and secure higher
prices