Download Alan`s Rotary Presentation

Preserving Rotary’s Legacy in a Changing World
The Challenge of Climate Change
Presented by Alan Anderson
Rotary’s Six Focus Areas :
1. Promoting peace
2. Fighting disease
3. Providing clean water
4. Saving mothers and children
5. Supporting education
6. Growing local economies





1979: Polio endemic in 125 countries
1988: 350,000 Polio cases each year
1M Rotarians invested $1.2B to end Polio
2012: 2.5B children vaccinated since 1988
2012: Polio endemic in only 3 countries
This is one part of Rotary’s legacy
This is YOUR legacy
But the world’s climate is changing, and not for the better.
15 of the 16 hottest years on record have been in the last 16 years.
2015 was the hottest year on record by far. 2016 was even hotter.
Source: NOAA: Global average temperature departure from 20th century average
The weather outside
is not “climate”.
Climate is the averages over
decades and centuries.
We are now permanently
moving the averages to a
hotter new climate
The last decade 2000-2010
was globally the
warmest decade on record. . .
2015 the hottest year. . .
then 2016 even hotter!
It is a scientific issue, not a political one.
Over 95% of working climate scientists agree:
1. The planet is warming rapidly, compared to the past
2. The warming is caused primarily by rising CO2
3. The increasing atmospheric CO2 is primarily from
burning fossil fuels – coal, oil and natural gas
4. Warming will have increasingly negative impacts on life
on our planet, including:
a. increasing evaporation, leading to more severe
storms, and more frequent flooding
b. increasing droughts and severe forest fires
c. rising sea levels and permanent coastal flooding
d. disrupted food production & water shortages
e. and many other negative impacts
5. The ONLY way to prevent more warming and even
worse impacts, is to decrease atmospheric CO2.
Among working climate scientists publishing research over
the last 20+ yrs, 99.8% agree on human-caused climate change.
There is strong consensus among climate scientists on this issue,
as opposed to what we hear from the “Merchants of Doubt”
Could it be a giant hoax and conspiracy among all the world’s
scientific organizations and climate scientists?
Not a chance!
• Scientists gain reputation (and grants) based on the accuracy
of their past research. So to knowingly falsify research
data/results, which another scientist could discover, would be
the dumbest thing they could do, for their career.
• Scientists like nothing better than to prove other scientists
WRONG (to enhance their own reputation for getting it right
and to keep the science straight). So when they publish, they
know that many of their peers will be looking for errors.
• If a scientist could prove CO2 was not a powerful GHG, they’d
win the Nobel prize and be forever famous. But they can’t.
• The same applies to national and international scientific
organizations. Yet 100% of national and international
scientific academies, like our US Nat. Academy of Science,
agree that rising CO2 is causing warming and climate change.
CO2 and other greenhouse gases are rising at an unprecedented rate,
and far outside the natural cycle. Current warming is not part of a natural cycle.
The sun is the source of warmth for the planet, but is not the
cause of the rapid increase in temps, in recent decades
Atmospheric CO2 levels have been rising since the early
1800s, with the increased burning of fossil fuels
The earth’s energy balance is well understood. Greenhouse gases like
CO2, trap heat and make it a livable planet. But more CO2 traps more
heat, and throws off the energy balance, causing more warming.
At just the current rate of CO2 emissions, we are projected to hit
between 800-1200 ppm, by 2100. Are you willing to run this global,
uncontrolled, irreversible experiment on your kids’/grandkids’ future?
Some say “It hasn’t warmed since 1998, so warming has stopped!”
This graph is popular among skeptics. It has been used by some
politicians and many bloggers, but it is deceptive.
Upon investigation, we find that RSS/uah satellite data in fact matchs GISS/NASA data fairly
well and the monthly chart tends to mask the annual trend. Chart creator Dr. Carl Mears,
Sr. scientist for RSS, says “My data clearly shows a warming trend, but my graph is frequently
changed and misrepresented”. Pervious chart leaves out ‘85-’97, and 2015.
As CO2 and global temperatures rise, the ice is melting everywhere.
The Arctic ice cap has lost 50% of its area & 80% of its mass since 1870.
The ice is melting faster than scientists originally projected. Latest est. are for
a 2 - 4 foot sea level rise by 2100. Just 2 ft. will be disastrous for many coastal
cities and ports. Norfolk, VA & Miami Beach already have “blue sky flooding”,
with every king tide. Property values there are now in question.
Simple geography tells us that with just a 3 foot rise in sea levels, much of Bangladesh
and hundreds of coastal cities and ports will be permanently abandoned, with a
devastating human & economic cost. Miami alone has $10s of billions in property at
risk from rising sea level. And it will be the poor of the world who will suffer the
most. Where will they go, how will they be fed, clothed, housed, doctored?
From U.S. conservatives and businesses:
• Five former Republican directors of the EPA, submitted a letter in the NYTs in
2014, agreeing with the scientists and calling for urgent action.
• A recent American Petroleum Institute report says “Few things threaten
America’s future prosperity more than climate change.”
• Exxon-Mobil’s own scientists, on the company website, say
“Rising CO2 poses significant risks to society and ecosystems.”
• Shell Oil’s climate science advisor, David Hone, says “We need to get to zero net
CO2 emissions by 2100”, to preserve the planet as we know it.
• 17 House Republicans and 10 Senate Republicans have introduced legislation
saying climate change is caused by us and needs govt .action
• Europe's 6 largest oil companies, in June 2015, have publically called for a
carbon tax, as the fastest way to begin decreasing CO2 emissions, while giving oil
companies a predictable playing field.
• Why would they do this?
They know CO2 is a urgent problem – and they have grandchildren too.
Scientists predict that as CO2 and temperatures continue to rise,
there will be increasing negative impacts on people everywhere.
• W
U.S Dept. of Defense
2014 Threats Assessment Report
“Among the trends that will impact our national
security is climate change.
Rising global temperatures, changing precipitation
patterns, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather
events will intensify the challenges of
global instability, hunger, poverty and conflict.
These will likely lead to food and water shortages,
pandemic disease, disputes over refugees and
resources, and destruction by increasing natural
disasters across the globe.”
“Disrupting the earth’s climate is
going to make diseases like polio –
that are related to sewage
contamination –
at higher risk of spreading.”
Dr. Jonathan Patz, Director
Global Health Institute
University of Wisconsin
Rotary’s Six Focus Areas :
1. Promoting peace
2. Fighting disease
3. Providing clean water
4. Saving mothers and children
5. Supporting education
6. Growing local economies
Which of these efforts by Rotary, are at risk
from climate change?
All of them!
Cutting CO2 emissions is the only way to prevent
more warming and even worse impacts.
The Choices We Make Now Will Create Different Outcomes
With substantial
CO2 reductions
Without
substantial CO2
reductions
Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100)
AR5 WGI SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
On the 3 arrow lines in the bottom right corner of this chart, plot the yr. you will be 80,
on top line. Next line, one of your kids 80. Next line, one of your grandkids 80.
We are the
ones with a
chance to
impact change,
IF we act. If we
do not, our kids
and grandkids
will pay the
price for our
in-action, a
tremendous
intergenerational
injustice.
BUT . . .
we CAN act!
3.6 deg F, (2 deg C) is considered the limit we must stay below
Current 1.8 deg F over past norm, is melting the ice
Is there any GOOD news????
• YES! There is a lot of good news!
• 195 countries from across the world have acknowledged the
problem and committed to reduce CO2 emissions (Paris ‘15)
• Many fossil fuel companies understand the problem and
agree that a carbon fee & dividend is a good solution
• New solar and wind energy sources are growing at 10x the
pace of new fossil fuel sources
• The USA & China (the two biggest emitters) have signed an
agreement to each decrease carbon emissions
• As of 2015, more people are employed in solar than in coal !
Alternative energy is a job creator
• And much more! BUT there is still much to be done
Rotary’s good work in the world – the positive results we’ve
achieved and by which we are known –
are all at risk of reversal, due to climate change.
 The good news is, there are solutions and . . .
 “Rotarians run TO problems” (not away)
 Rotary has global reach, credibility, social
capital and real impact
 Good stewardship challenges us to protect
the positive results we’ve achieved so far, by
taking action on climate change
Working to stop the humanitarian crisis caused by
climate change, will help the most people and will
resonate with the next generation of Rotarians.
So what could Rotarians do, specifically,
to decrease the potential impacts of climate change?
The solutions are many – but for Rotarians here are some
suggestions, to begin:
1. Add climate change to the list of major focus priorities
2. Join Rotary’s new Environmental Sustainability Action Grp.
3. Develop informational programs on climate change, for
clubs across the global, similar to the push on polio.
4. As individuals, take actions like ones on today’s handout
5. Learn about and support a revenue-neutral carbon fee
and dividend, as recommended by conservative
economists, as the fastest way to reduce CO2 emissions
REMI: Summary on Carbon Fee & Dividend
Employment
Climate
Fiscal
● 2 million more jobs
● Reduces carbon dioxide
● Increases household incomes
Humanitarian ● Saves Lives
Economic
● $1.3 trillion more GDP
New GOP Climate Leadership Council w Schultz,Baker, Paulson agrees.
See their website at www.clccouncil.org for details.
“Are you and the other grownups taking care of our little blue planet
for us kids, grandpa?” Lucy, Ev & June, I am trying to do my part.
Will you join in this effort, for your kids & grandkids?
Questions?
In Closing:
• If you have a group (church, service club, family,
etc.) that would like a presentation on Climate
Change, at no cost, contact me. Find my contact
info. on the handout.
• If you have specific questions or are still
skeptical about some issues, please see me after
we adjourn, to discuss the science further.
Your questions and concerns are important.
• If you would like additional information on
climate change and this unprecedented
challenge to humankind, emailed to you, see
the sign-up sheets on the table.
• Thank you for this opportunity today!
Administering drops of the polio vaccine. . .
2.5 Billion Times
Photo courtesy of 2012 NID Team
But the world’s climate is changing, and not for the better.
Temperature records from the pre-thermometer past are not perfect, but these 10
reconstructions, by different teams using different methods, continues to withstand scrutiny
* 0.8
At +3 deg C (+5.4 deg F) and up – scientists tell us it will be disastrous
- up to 50% of all plant & animal species could go extinct.
- major losses of tropical rain forests
- significant coastal flooding & abandonment of some cities
- it will be a very different and unfriendly climate__________
At +2 deg C (+3.6 deg F) – up to 35% species at risk of extinction
- almost all coral reefs bleaching and dying, disrupting the
1.5 C
marine food chain and impacting human food sources
- coastal flooding displacing 100s of millions of people______
At +1 deg C (+1.8 deg F) 2016 will likely average here at +1.0 C
-2015 - storms are more violent, rain flooding more common
0.8 C - increased drought in dry areas
- millions at risk for water shortages____________________
At friendly 30 year average temperature, life is good, as we have
know it for thousands of years
The threat to our future is clear and certain, unless we act NOW!