Download The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization`s Northern

BOOK REVIEW
The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future
by Laurence C. Smith
Reviewed by Ira Sohn
"The province of Quebec, anticipating renewed interest in its natural resources,
has rolled out Plan Nord, an ambitious 25-year plan to develop its vast but largely
untouched northern and Arctic regions. The program, however, has the potential to
put the province at odds with environmentalists in this mainly pristine region. And
the development of traditional lands of the large native Canadian population may
pose further difficulties"
N.Y. Times article by Jan Austen, May 2011
“FAR OUT” FORECASTING
My dog-eared dictionary defines “paradox”
as “something inconsistent with common
experience or having contradicting
qualities.” Given the abysmal record of longterm forecasting, it may seem difficult to
justify the time, effort, and costs incurred
to prepare them; yet long-term forecasts are
not only alive and thriving, their projection
intervals have been extended to 50 years and
longer, making them likely to be even less
accurate – if such is possible – than in the
past. A seeming paradox, indeed.
Even so, the quest to make increasingly
more complex “educated guesses” about the
distant future goes on undeterred. And why
not? The truth is, whether you’re a pitcher
taking the mound, a medical researcher
entering the laboratory, or a forecaster
gazing into your algorithmic tea leaves, the
goal is always the same: simply put, you do
the best you can with what you have. After
all, things “inconsistent with common
experience” sometimes actually happen: a
perfect game, a cure for polio, a “black swan”
financial event.
Moreover, the benefits of ultra-long-term
forecasting – unlike those earned through
short-term projections – aren’t necessarily
rget. “Far
measured by whether you hit the target.
out” predicting is also about stimulating
the thinking, discourse, and debate – in
academia, government, and business –
that so often result in opening up new
avenues of progress; whether this is a goal
intentionally worked toward or just another
“happy accident” – such as the invention of
the humble, ubiquitous, and indispensable
“Post-it” notes - hardly matters.
A PERFECT EXAMPLE
In his controversial “Essay on the Principle
of Population,” Thomas Malthus (1798)
postulated that unchecked population
growth would eventually outstrip the capacity
of the Earth to feed its people. Malthus’s
conjecture, though proven in many ways to
be spectacularly erroneous, has continued
for the ensuing 200 years to influence
thinking worldwide about the relationship
between population and economic growth
and whether the world’s resources can
continue to sustain us, with the arguments
broadening to include issues of scientific
advancement, technological change, and the
growing vexations of pollution and climatic
shifts.
Our thought and decision making continue
to be enriched by these scientific and
www.forecasters.org/foresight FORESIGHT
37
philosophical musings that just naturally
bubble up around the issues and unique
challenges presented by long-range
forecasting.
In the last six years alone, a large number of
important studies on long-term trends have
been released. These include the annually
mandated 10-year agricultural and 25year energy projections prepared by the
U.S. Agriculture and Energy departments,
respectively, and the annual reports – with
similar projection intervals – produced by
the UN’s Rome-based Food and Agriculture
Organization and the OECD’s Paris-based
International Energy Agency. Then there
was the highly contentious “Report on
Climate Change” by the UN-sponsored
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(2007), and the work by Nicolas Stern (2007)
commissioned by the British government
that examined the science and economics of
climate change in the 21st century. Meanwhile,
the U.S. National Intelligence Council (2008)
released its fourth quinquennial report that
identifies “key drivers and developments
likely to shape world events [to 2025], and to
stimulate strategic thinking … by identifying
key trends, the factors that drive them,
where they seem to be headed, and how they
interact.”
drivers of change, he sets down his key
assumptions: only incremental advances
in technology; the absence of major wars
or other “extraordinary” events, such as
economic depressions, health pandemics, or
cataclysmic climate change; and maintenance
of existing international treaties and
organizations. Also, he believes that we
can continue to utilize our current stock of
economic and physical models – warts and
all.
From my experience in economic modeling,
the projections of global natural-resource
consumption and production levels (energy
consumption, copper and aluminum
output, food requirements, etc.) are most
sensitive to the economic and technological
assumptions made. So it is these assumptions
that should form the heart of any debate over
pictures of the future.
THE FOUR KEY DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Smith presents an overview of his principal
long-term drivers of change in the state of
the world, an overview that will be useful
even for forecasters who focus on the shortto-medium term.
First, there is demographic change and its
by-products: increasing rates of urbanization,
higher participation rates of women in the
Nor have academic and business forecasters economy, and the big-ticket items that today
been sitting on their hands. Mark Jaccard are threatening the “social compact” in the
(2005), George Magnus (2009), Joel Kotkin rich, developed countries: growing demands
(2010), and the late William Mitchell and on education, health care, and pension
his colleagues (2010) have written full- systems.
length books on the subjects of sustainable
fossil fuels, the changing global and national Another driver is the growing worldwide
demographic trends to 2050, and the 21st- demand for natural resources needed
to support the higher living standards being
century urban automobile.
enjoyed by most of the world’s population.
THE WORLD IN 2050
These include energy and nonfuel minerals
Laurence C. Smith’s recently published book, (such as aluminum and copper), fresh water
The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping used primarily by households and the farm
Civilization’s Northern Future (2010), is a sector, and – not least – adequate food
worthy addition to this library of works supplies to accommodate the changing diets
on long-term trends. Smith is a professor of a global population projected to rise to
of geography and earth and space sciences 9.2bn by 2050, an increase of more than 50%
at UCLA. Before enumerating his critical from the beginning of this century.
38
FORESIGHT Summer 2011
The third major driving force is the
increasing globalization of economic
activity characterized by the enhanced
movement of goods, services, people,
and financial and physical capital across
international borders. This force is anchored
in multilateral agreements forged and
implemented by international organizations
such as the World Trade Organization and
the International Monetary Fund.
Rounding out the list of drivers is climate
change, which I believe is in its proper
position in light of the compelling scientific
evidence that human activity is a major cause
of global warming. Human activity includes
population and income growth, and the use
of current and prospective technologies to
transform energy and nonfuel minerals into
useful goods and services.
As for technological change, Smith does not
anoint it as a stand-alone driver but embeds
it in all four of his drivers. For example, in
the globalization driver it is manifested
through the adoption and diffusion of
modern transport and communications
infrastructures throughout the world,
such as the near-universal practice of
containerized shipping in the last quarter
of the 20th century. In the natural-resource
driver, technological change is exemplified
by the ongoing worldwide substitution of
aluminum for steel in the manufacturing
sector.
CROSSCURRENTS
Smith delineates an array of crosscurrents—
that is, the opportunities that society and,
ultimately, the people we elect to govern
us are given to utilize certain drivers to
mitigate others. For example, the increasing
scarcity and higher cost of energy (the
natural-resource driver) can be mitigated
by developing technologies that reduce the
intensity of use of the scarce resource, such
as increasing automobile fuel efficiency and/
or introducing electric or hydrogen-based
fuel systems that simultaneously affect the
climate-change driver.
But crosscurrents can also require society
to make tradeoffs. With the trend toward
urbanization, we must anticipate new
tensions between urban residents and farm
interests. Contentious issues over water
rights will lead not simply to local stresses; as
climate changes, we will also see geopolitical
stress between water-deficit and watersurplus countries and regions. Globalization
embedded with technological change should
be able to mitigate some water scarcities.
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
NORTHERN RIM
The future of the Northern Rim
countries (NORC) occupies about
half of the book. This is the region
north of the 45th parallel and
spans Canada, Denmark, Finland,
Iceland, Norway, most of Russia,
Sweden, and the U.S. states that are
contiguous with Canada. NORC
is a sparsely populated region,
relatively speaking, but the changes Smith
foresees include increases in human activity
and in the strategic value and economic
importance of this region. Because of the
drivers – population growth, the rising
demands for more energy and other natural
resources, globalization, and climate change
– the constraints that heretofore limited
the physical exploration and economic
development of the northern latitudes of the
planet will be relaxed by the year 2050.
For example, because of climate change, in
the second half of the 21st century, NORC is
likely to experience a substantial increase in
crop production as the short growing season
is extended. Also, the expected sea-ice melt
will profoundly affect northern shipping
routes, since these lanes will be completely
ice free for about two months of the year,
providing a boost to the globalization driver.
In addition, rising average temperatures
will unlock a bountiful stock of resources
– both fuel and nonfuel – that in the past
has largely remained untouched because
of the costs associated with working in this
www.forecasters.org/foresight FORESIGHT
39
harsh environment. Technical and transport
impediments that had put these resources
out of reach of the global economy will begin
to recede.
(BP, Shell, and Statoil) and some NORC
governments (Canada, Norway, Russia,
and the U.S.) to secure investment funds to
unlock arctic resources.
CONCLUSIONS
Dutton, New York, 2010; ISBN No. 978-0525-95181-0; 322 pages (including index),
$26.95
In the middle of the 21st century, according
to U.N. projections, the world’s population
will be half again as large as it was at the
beginning of the century. Laurence Smith
predicts that global warming will continue
and, in particular, the northern high
latitudes will warm by 1.5 - 2.5 degrees
centigrade, amounts that appear modest but
are currently equivalent to the difference
between a record cool and record warm year
in New York City. In addition, Asia’s large
population will be firmly incorporated into
the global economy, and their consumption
patterns – intensive in energy and resources
– will reflect their rising living standards.
Smith is optimistic that, with the required
political will, our expanding technological base,
and our proven ingenuity to solve problems that
also improve the unavoidable physical tradeoffs,
the “ingredients” of modern living standards
(energy, food, fresh water, and metals) can
be procured in the necessary amounts and at
affordable prices – provided we can exploit
the opportunities that “frontier” regions like
the Northern Rim offer.
In fact, this process is already well under
way. In just one recent month (mid-April to
mid-May, 2011), this reviewer read reports
of long-term plans by major oil companies
Ira Sohn JT 1SPGFTTPS PG &DPOPNJDT BOE
'JOBODF BU .POUDMBJS 4UBUF 6OJWFSTJUZ BOE
GSFRVFOUWJTJUJOHQSPGFTTPSBUUIF$PMPSBEP
4DIPPM PG .JOFT )JT BSUJDMF i#FFO 5IFSF
%POF 5IBU 1FSJMT 1JUGBMMT BOE 1SPNJTFT PG
-POH 5FSN 1SPKFDUJPOTw BQQFBSFE JO ForesightT 4QSJOH JTTVF IJT SFWJFX PG
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World JO
4QSJOH BOE IJT CPPL SFWJFX PG The
Next Hundred Million: America in 2050CZ+PFM
,PULJOJOUIF4QSJOHJTTVF
[email protected]
40
FORESIGHT Summer 2011
REFERENCES
Ehrlich, P. (1968). The Population Bomb, New
York: Ballantine Books.
Forrester, J.W. (1971). World Dynamics, Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen.
IPCC (2007). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report: Climate
Change 2007 (AR4), available at http://www.
ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_data_reports:shtm
Jaccard, M. (2005). Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The
Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy, New York: Cambridge University
Press.
Kotkin, J. (2010). The Next Hundred Million:
America in 2050, New York: The Penguin Press.
Magnus, G. (2009). The Age of Aging: How Demographics are Changing the Global Economy
and Our World, Singapore: John Wiley & Sons.
Malthus, T. (1798). An Essay on the Principle of
Population, at http://www.econlib.org/li-
brary/Malthus/malPop3.html.
Meadows, D.H. & others (1972). The Limits to
Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on
the Predicament of Mankind, New York: Potomac
Associates-Universe Books.
Mitchell, W.J., Borroni-Bird, C.E. & Burns, L.D.
(2010). Reinventing the Automobile: Personal Urban Mobility for the 21st Century, Cambridge,
MA: The MIT Press.
National Intelligence Council (2008). Global
Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Washington,
D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office (ISBN:
978-0-16-081834-9).
Simon, J. (1981). The Ultimate Resource, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Smith, L.C. (2010). The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future, New
York: Dutton.
Stern, N. (2007). The Economics of Climate
Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University
Press.
Webster (1962). Webster’s New World Dictionary of the American Language, (College Edition),
Cleveland and New York: The World Publishing
Company.
ISF2012: Th
t
a
w
eF
Ne
ore
sig
h
!
k
c
a
t Pr
actitioner Tr
Jun
e
25-27,
MA
2012 Boston,
The International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF)
is world-renowned for its compelling keynotes, in-depth
academic sessions and productive workshops. ISF2012 will
add a whole new element to the event with the introduction
of the Foresight Practitioner Track: a program created
for forecasting practitioners by the team at Foresight: The
International Journal of Applied Forecasting.
The Foresight Practitioner Track (FPT) will run parallel to the academic
track offered each year at the ISF. Delegates may choose to attend sessions
in either or both tracks. FPT topics will include:
Evaluating the Forecasting Process: Auditing and Benchmarking
Process Performance; Assessing Actual and Potential Forecast
Accuracy
Establishing and Nurturing a Collaborative Forecasting Process: Sales
and Operations Planning; Process Design and Ownership
Improving Supply Chain Forecasting: Support Systems; Collaboration
Among Supply Chain Partners
Speakers and panelists for the Foresight Practitioners Track will also be invited to contribute to our postISF issue of Foresight. If you are interested in participating, please contact the Practitioner Track Chairman,
Len Tashman ([email protected]).
THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED FORECASTING
48
FORESIGHT Summer 2011