Download New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute

Climate Change and
Sustainable Development:
How do we manage it?
17 November 2010
Martin Manning
New Zealand Climate
Change Research Institute
Outline
 Our climate is starting to change more
rapidly – can the science keep up?
 Dealing with climate change has created a
strong divergence of views in some places
 Major parts of the private sector are now
moving into climate risk management
 Can we quickly start up a much broader
social engagement in dealing with this?
2
2010 average temperatures will probably be highest
on record for the Northern Hemisphere, and second
highest globally – but this is no longer the issue.
0.6
Global average temperature change
Degrees Celsius
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
Annual average global temperatures from the University of East Anglia, UK,
(red circles) and NASA Goddard Space Centre (green circles). The blue line
shows a 15-year average smoothing of the annual values.
3
Glacier loss in Bolivia means loss of water supply
An 18,000 year old Bolivian
glacier, Chacaltaya, was famous
as the world’s highest ski resort.
It began melting in the mid1980s, was then predicted to
disappear in 2015 – but did that
in 2009!
This has major implications for
their water supply.
Bolivia’s lead climate negotiator, Angelica Navarro, on the
UNFCCC Copenhagen meeting outcome:
“What we want in Bolivia is a true and participatory
democracy, a grassroots democracy. If the governments
do not come up with a plan for climate change, the people
have to lead with a plan."
See: http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/faultlines/2010/05/2010518121127315453.html
4
From Julienne Stroeve, NSIDC, presentation to International Conference on Land
Surface Radiation and Energy budgets.
5
And science is still having to come up with
ways of tracking all the changes
The Arctic region is
warming at more than
twice the global
average rate.
Tracking Arctic ice
volume is starting to
complement previous
tracking of its surface
area.
More of the ice is now
only one year old and
thinner than it used to
be.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php
6
But some are very quick at exploiting changes
The 114,564-tonne tanker,
Baltica, sailed from Russia's
northernmost port of
Murmansk on August 14,
2010, across the top of
Siberia, and delivered gas
condensate to Ningbo, China,
11 days later – less than half
the time it would have taken
through the Suez canal.
7
Increasing rates of loss of the major ice sheets
Feb 2003 – Feb 2007
Feb 2003 – Jun 2009
Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment (GRACE) satellite data
Rate of Greenland
ice mass loss.
Khan et al, Geophys Res Letts, 2010
Other Satellite
ice sheet mass
measurements
show increasing
rates of change
Greenland
Velicogna, GRL, 2009
Antarctica
8
And we are still discovering new things
New evidence has shown a direct connection between warming
sub-tropical water in the North Atlantic Ocean and melting in
glacial fjords along Greenland's coast. This may now be
contributing to the more rapid loss of Greenland's glaciers.
Straneo et al, Nature Geoscience, 2010
9
Better
explanations of
recent SLR
The IPCC 2007 report
could not give a detailed
budget for recent sea
level rise (SLR). And
future SLR projections
were dominated by
thermal expansion.
There is now strong
evidence that glacier and
ice sheet loss is already
causing more than 50%.
Glaciers and ice caps
ice sheets
Thermal expansion upper ocean
… and deep ocean
& terrestrial storage
Black, yellow and red are
observed SLR
Blue line is sum of
estimates and uncertainty
Domingues et al, Nature,
2008.
10
New estimates for Sea Level Rise by 2100
New estimates
since 2007
2.0
US Dept Energy, 1985
1.5
SLR (m)
IPCC 1990
IPCC 2007
1995
1.0
2001
?
0.5
0.0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Vertical bars show estimates of SLR by 2100 from major reviews over
the last 20 years. The box with blue background shows new estimates.
The open dots are from analogies with the last interglacial period. The
new estimates are starting to be reflected in some planning guidelines.
11
Sea level rise shows there can be major
structural problems in adapting to climate change
About 140 million people
and 1 trillion dollars of
infra-structure would be
directly affected by a
1 meter sea level rise.
Early effects come from
storm damage and impacts
on coastal water supply.
Adaptation needs to
include strategic retreat
from coastlines.
Sea level rise will affect some
countries much more than others
- e.g. Vietnam, Bangladesh.
It shows that a major problem in
adapting to a new climate is
structural – e.g. country borders.
12
Rapid changes in our understanding of
sea level rise show that the best
scientific estimates for future changes
may now have to be continually
modified as we start to see major
shifts in our environment
…
and diagnosing some types of
change can also be more difficult
…
13
2010 – a year of record drought in the Amazon
In 2010, the level of the
dark Rio Negro, a tributary
to the Amazon river drought
dropped to lowest level on
records of over 100 years.
Drought in 2010 was more
widespread than in 2005
which saw major loss in
forests.
Deforestation dropped very
significantly in 2010 as well.
Brazilians cross the muddy bottom of the Rio
Negro, a major tributary to the Amazon River, in
the city of Manaus, Oct. 26, 2010.
But fire activity increased.
http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101029/full/news.2010.571.html
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/brazil/101102/amazon-drought-climate-change
14
2010 –
Colder Weather extremes?
Heavy snow in Europe
in early 2010 was very
unusual. It was much
colder than normal in
some places but much
warmer on average over
the Northern
Hemisphere.
The heavier snow fall is
related to more water
vapour now being in the
atmosphere.
Hansen et al, Rev. Geophys, in press.
Temperature anomaly (oC) for Dec-JanFeb 2010, relative to 1951-1980 average
15
2010 –
Warmer Weather extremes?
Drought and widespread fires in
Russia at the same time as record
breaking flooding down the Indus
valley in Pakistan, and near-record
flooding across much of China, is
raising the question of correlations
between extreme events.
Extremes like this have been
expected to become more frequent,
for some time - but some climate
scientists are now concerned about
possible connections between them.
Russia
China
Pakistan
16
Some stronger lines on the attribution
of extreme events
At a meeting of climate scientists covering extreme
events in August 2010, Kevin Trenberth gave a
detailed explanation of potential connections between:
 Arctic ice sheet loss,
 warming of the Indian Ocean,
 blocking of weather patterns over much of Asia,
 record droughts in Russia,
 record floods in Pakistan, and
 extreme flooding across much of China.
But do we have to wait till it happens again and again
to be sure ?
17
Increasing rates of change make it a risky world
Scientists usually want to be sure of what
they know, and understand the limits for
what they don’t know, before they say it.
The IPCC Working Group I on the physical
sciences of climate change has decided it
can not cover risk management.
So do we wait till the science is sure OR …
The United Nations Precautionary
Principle agreed by all governments in
1992 …
“Where there are threats of serious or
irreversible damage, lack of full scientific
certainty should not be used as a reason
for postponing cost-effective measures to
prevent environmental degradation.”
18
And we also seem to be at a Y-Junction
Projections of global warming for two
greenhouse gas emission scenarios
And the IEA
reported this year
that subsidies for
fossil fuels had
now increased to
$537 billion
Increasing use of fossil
fuels.
Rapid development of new
technology and halving
greenhouse gas emissions
by 2050.
Malte Meinshausen
et al, Nature, 2009
It’s more to do with politics
than climate science or technology
19
We are at a Y-junction as contrarian views
continue and there is inertia for major changes
“There isn’t any real science to say we are altering the
climate path of the earth.
“The Democrats’ bill would raise everyone’s electricity
bills and make the nation less competitive.
Roy Blunt, Republican congressman on the House
Energy and Commerce Committee
“There never was a shred of evidence that CFCs
were in the ozone layer or causing change.
“Global warming and climate change are the biggest
scam of all.
Tim Ball, former professor of Geography, Canada
20
Is climate change causing an
international split?
Lord Nicholas Stern, 12 Sep 2010.
“If the USA wont move then others
should just get on with it, and that may
affect the market later”.
Jos Delbeke, director general of the
European Commission's climate team,
6 Nov 2010
"We see the U.S. disappearing as a
partner in achieving meaningful climate
action.
21
Developing countries are taking different lines
"The rapid growth of China's
engagement with climate
change has been staggering:
last year China accounted for
over 24 percent of total global
investment into the climate
change sector, having
represented only 6 percent of
the total in 2004.
-Joaquim de Lima, HSBC,
2010.
www.greenbiz.com/news/2010/09/17/china-moving-forefront-emerging-low-carbon-economy 22
And then there
is the US military
defense agency
“Assessments conducted by the intelligence community indicate that
climate change could have significant geopolitical impacts around the
world, contributing to poverty, environmental degradation, and the
further weakening of fragile governments.
“Climate change will contribute to food and water scarcity, will
increase the spread of disease, and may spur or exacerbate mass
migration.
“While climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an
accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on
civilian institutions and militaries around the world.
23
The private sector is also taking stronger lines
‘Deutsche Bank spurns US for climate investment
“They're asleep at the wheel on climate change, …” Kevin Parker,
head of Deutsche Asset management division. (Reuters, 11 Aug 2010)
That may link to the Deutsche Bank report,
released in September, which addresses 12 of
the major claims made by skeptics; completely
rejects most of them; and points out that the
others are no reason for doubting that human
activities are warming the Earth now.
www.dbcca.com/dbcca/EN/_media/DBCCAColumbiaSkepticPaper090710.pdf
… and also in Sep 2010
“The global insurance
industry demands publicprivate action on climate
change adaptation in
developing countries.”
24
The Insurance industry has been reporting
increasing numbers of extreme events.
The top three groups of extreme events are climate related
Wildfire,
drought
Floods, storms
landslide
Storms, hail,
severe
weather
Earthquakes
volcanoes
Munich Re Topics Geo 2009
25
Lloyds Insurance wants more risk management
“Governments will become increasingly dependent on the creativity
and skills of the private sector in tackling the security challenges that
climate change will bring.
Dr Richard Ward, Chief Executive Officer, Lloyds
“If no action is taken, losses from
coastal flooding could double by 2030.
Therefore adaptation is vital.
“With effective adaptation strategy,
future losses can be reduced to below
present day values.
“The insurance industry can encourage
adaptation by policyholders through
incentivisation.
2010
“The world cannot insure its way
out of climate change
26
And risk management in a changing world
- is a new issue
In New Orleans, the major planning for
hurricanes, after Hurricane Betsy
occurred in 1965, was never completed.
Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was more
extreme, and also revealed structural
inertia in planning.
o “The greatest overall disaster in U.S. history at
a time of unprecedented U.S. wealth and power
o “Creating community resilience takes time and
longer than anticipated
o “Surprises should be expected & anticipation
was insufficient
o “Despite 290 years of effort, overall vulnerability
to hurricanes has grown
Community and Regional Resilience Initiative,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2008
27
The Y-Junction is really about
the range of views…
Politics has to be
based on winning
the next election
Our children can look
after themselves
Perhaps in 10 years
time we can start to
do something
We want security for
long term investments
We will be judged by
what we pass on to
future generations
28
So what next ?
The IPCC was set up to communicate current
understanding of climate science directly
into the international policy process
IPCC
Science
Policy
29
We now need a broader framework like this …
Society
Consideration
of future
generations
growing involvement of
Industry & Investment
Climate
stabilisation
options
Investment
priorities
Risk Management
Science
IPCC
Policy
30
Summary
(is the same as my Outline)
 Our climate is starting to change more
rapidly – can the science keep up?
 Dealing with climate change has created a
strong divergence of views in some places
 Major parts of the private sector are now
moving into climate risk management
 Can we quickly start up a much broader
social engagement in dealing with this?
MUCHAS GRACIAS
31