Download Mockrin SES Climate Change Impacts

Thinking in Terms of SocialEcological Systems: Connecting
climate change impacts to human
communities
Miranda H. Mockrin
Rocky Mountain Research Station
USDA Forest Service
Fort Collins, CO
Workshop on Forest Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in the
Context of Climate Change
November 7-10 2011,
Lubrecht Experimental Forest, Montana
Social-ecological systems—
definitions and history
• Combines ecosystems and social science to
address the linked ways that social systems and
ecology interact
• Emerged from Stockholm Resilience Center,
always linked to resilience as a concept
• Same as ‘coupled human-natural systems’
Social-ecological systems—
definitions and history
• “We hold the view that social and ecological
systems are in fact linked, and that the
delineation between social and natural systems
is artificial and arbitrary”
Berkes et al. 2003. Navigating social-ecological
systems: building resilience for complexity and
change. Cambridge University Press. 393 pp.
Social-ecological systems—
definitions and history
• When separated, in the past,
▫ social science sometimes focused solely on human
interactions, with environmental context seen as
constant or unimportant
▫ ecologists concentrated on ‘pristine
environments’ and saw humans as external
agents, minimizing institutional and policy
context (Liu et al. 2007).
Social-ecological systems—
definitions and history
• Grew out of systems ecology/systems approach,
with an emphasis on linkages, feedbacks, and
thresholds among components.
• Response to classic utilitarian approaches that
considered resources in isolation
▫ e.g., harvesting fisheries with a fixed species-specific
quota
▫ Classical approach assumed scientific
knowledge/human control could result in desired
management outcomes
Social-ecological systems—limitations
• Despite emphasis on joining ecology and social
science, usually focused on a natural resource or
ecological system/case study
• Questions about these systems/resilience and
work with social science (Davidson 2010 Society
and Natural Resources)
Examples of climate change & SES
• Chapin et al. 2006. Policy strategies to address
sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in
response to a directionally changing climate.
PNAS 103: 16637–16643.
• Leslie et al. 2009. Modeling responses of
coupled social-ecological systems of the Gulf of
California to anthropogenic and natural
pertubations. Ecological Restoration. 24:505519.
Diagram of a social–ecological system comprising an ecological subsystem (left) and a social
subsystem (right), each with a spectrum of controls that operate across a range of temporal
and spatial scales.
Chapin et al. PNAS 2006
©2006 by National Academy of Sciences
Leslie et al. 2009. Ecological Restoration. Fig. 1 Major feedback driving the model of
the coupled social–ecological systems. Juvenile and adult fish populations are affected
by different environmental and exploitation pressures and are linked through
immigration and recruitment. Adults are harvested by the sportfishing and artisanal
fleets, while the largely immature individuals are impacted by the industrial shrimp fleet
via bycatch. The effort employed by the sportfishing and artisanal fleets are driven by
the returns to each respective sector
Social-Ecological Systems & USFS
• Southern Forest Futures Project
• Resources Product Assesssment
Social-Ecological Systems & USFS
• Southern Forest Futures Project
▫ Forecasting probable changes in southern forests
between 2010 and 2060.
▫ Presents a range of futures or scenarios of the South’s
forests
 Influences such as urbanization, bioenergy, climate change,
land ownership changes, and invasive species.
 Goal: inform land management and policy by providing
these forecasts about potential long-term change in forests
of the 13 southern states.
2010 RPA Scenario Analysis and Modeling Systems
Basic Assumptions
Global Forest
Products Model
Global SRES Scenarios
Socioeconomic
US Forest Products
Model
Timber
Supply
US Scenarios
Bioenergy
Climate
US Forest Sector Modeling
System
Macroeconomic
Translated/
Downscaled
Forest Dynamics
Model
Demographic
Forest
Area
Land Use
Model
Forecasts of Ecosystem Services/Responses
Forest
Range
Carbon
Water
Wildlife
Recreation
• Wood Products
• Forage Supply
• Sequestration
• Supply
• Climate Stress
• Participation
Landscape
Pattern
• Condition
• Condition
• Vulnerability
• Bird Diversity
• Days of Activity
• Fragmentation
• Edge
Social-Ecological Systems & USFS
• Strong tradition of considering both social and
ecological science in resource assessments
▫ Emphasis on modeling and ecological approaches
▫ Forested ecosystems/resources
▫ Large spatial and temporal scales
Connecting Climate Change
Impacts to Human Communities:
Thinking in terms of socialecological systems
Miranda H. Mockrin
Rocky Mountain Research Station
USDA Forest Service
Fort Collins, CO
Workshop on Forest Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in the
Context of Climate Change
November 7-10 2011,
Lubrecht Experimental Forest, Montana