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2014, a climate emergency
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2014, a climate emergency
2014, a climate emergency
Paul Rogers [1] 10 January 2014
The accelerating pace of extreme weather events is an acute challenge to political leaders.
Two months ago, on 8 November 2013, a devastating typhoon struck south-central islands in the
Philippines. There were early warnings of what was to come, but over 6,000 people were killed and
hundreds of thousands of homes and livelihoods destroyed [2]. Some initial news reports indicated
that wind speeds had reached nearly 320 kph (200 mph), figures that seemed scarcely credible,
even in sudden gusts in an exceptionally strong storm. Soon, more detailed data became available,
including two separate reports of sustained wind speeds lasting for ten minutes, making them a
more reliable basis for assessment [3] of typhoon Haiyan.
The Hong Kong Observatory [4] put the sustained speed prior to landfall at 275 kph (170 mph), and
the Chinese Meteorological Administration [5] at 270 kph (167 mph). These may possibly be the
highest speeds of a tropical storm ever recorded; they certainly mean that typhoon Haiyan was
exceptional [6] by any standards.
In the nine weeks that have followed the Philippines' typhoon there have been further remarkable
weather events across the world: among them the highest [7] temperatures for almost a century in
Buenos Aires, record low temperatures across central areas of north America, and a series of storms
affecting the coasts of north-west Europe. In Britain, for example, the Meteorological Office was
publishing weather warnings every day for six weeks.
The forewarning
What appears to be happening is best described as the development of a more “energetic” climate,
with increasingly intense weather activity stemming from more energy in the atmosphere due to
carbon emissions. It follows the almost unnoticed report from the World Meteorological Organisation
[8] (WMO) in Geneva, published in July 2013, on the trends of 2001-10 and comparisons with earlier
decades (see "The global climate cliff [9]", 18 July 2013).
The significance of this WMO report - The Global Climate 2001-2010: A Decade of Climate Extremes
[10] - was that it eschewed predictions stemming from computer models (however sophisticated
they might be) in favour of actual measurements and comparisons with data on previous weather
stretching back well over a century. This approach, rooted in experience, observation and
comparison, generated some notable findings for 2001-10:
* it was the warmest decade on record for both land and sea surface temperatures and for both
northern and southern hemispheres
* it saw sea levels rising twice as fast as the trend in the last century
* it saw a rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, and an accelerated decrease in the net mass of the Greenland
and Antarctic ice sheets.
The WMO commented that during the decade the world had “experienced unprecedented
high-impact climate extremes”. The words can be seen as an informed [11] forecast of typhoon
Haiyan and the other events of 2013-14.
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The transformation
The aforementioned column [9]cited the clear evidence in the WMO report of an increase in the
severity [12] of weather events, and reflected on whether this might be enough to incite strong
intergovernmental action. Its conclusion - suggesting that "a truly serious shift in political outlooks"
was needed, but that it appears such a transformation [13] might "only come in the wake of great
misery" - was hardly optimistic.
Six months on, however, a passing comment by Britain's prime minister David Cameron can be seen
as, so to speak, an interesting straw in the wind. Cameron, responding [14] in parliament on 8
January 2014 to queries about the extensive flooding that has hit [15] many towns and coastal
areas, said: “Colleagues across the [House of Commons] can argue whether [the flooding] is linked
to climate change or no. I very much suspect that it is. The point is that whatever one’s view it
makes sense to invest in flood defences”.
Cameron's early leadership of his Conservative Party from 2005 was marked [16] by his emphasis on
climate change, though this was always unpopular with many of the party's [17] MPs, financial
backers and supporters, many of whom are climate-change sceptics. Their views are backed [18] in
turn by free-market think-tanks and foundations and most of the leadership of the world's fossil-fuel
industry.
The industry's stance is hardly surprising. If climate change does have [19] to be stopped and
carbon-dioxide emissions cut by 80%, then the great majority of the fossil carbon in proved and
exploitable reserves of coal, oil and gas cannot be used. This would make the value of these
reserves - on which fossil-fuel industry investment is based - essentially worthless: the industry
would become a house build not on carbon but on sand. This is simply unacceptable to the industry,
which therefore must argue that human-induced climate change simply cannot be happening - end
of story.
Against this industrial, political and propaganda background [20], it is striking that Cameron could
even suggest a link between the floods and climate change. But the indications are that he still does
not grasp the scale of what needs to be done. There is no doubt that flood defences do need to be
improved - but in itself this will only help stop climate change if it is accompanied by radical moves
towards low-carbon economies. The improvement of flood defences would mean only installing
barriers [21] that in due course will be overwhelmed - it puts off the evil day, nothing more, and in
isolation achieves absolutely nothing for the long term.
The problem in Britain - and in many other industrial countries - is that the climate-change denial
lobby is so strong, so well funded and so effective that it is politically difficult for any major figure to
stand up and say what needs to happen. The latter requires a degree of political leadership [22] that
is currently absent across the spectrum.
There is no pretending that it would be easy, because moving to an ultra-low carbon economy
requires major short-term changes that might be singularly troublesome in order to prevent
longer-term disaster. David Cameron’s remark is a small step. But it still looks as though far worse
weather events over [23] the entire world will have to be experienced before the political classes
come to their senses.
Sideboxes'Read On' Sidebox:
Department of peace studies, Bradford University [24]
World Meteorological Organisation [8]
The Global Climate 2001-2010: A Decade of Climate Extremes [10] (WMO, July 2013)
Oxford Research Group [25]
Paul Rogers, Losing Control: Global Security in the 21st Century [26] (Pluto, 3rd edition, 2010)
Paul Rogers, Global Security and the War on Terror: Elite Power and the Illusion of Control [27]
Page 2 of 7
2014, a climate emergency
Published on openDemocracy (https://www.opendemocracy.net)
(Routledge, 2007)
The Great Transition [28]
New Economics Foundation [29]
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature [30] (Best) project
Real Clear Science [31]
Tim Jackson, Prosperity Without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet [32] (Earthscan 2009)
National Sea and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) [33]
Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows & Jorgen Randers, Limits to Growth: the 30-Year Update [34]
(Chelsea Green, 2004)
State of the Planet [35]
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University [36]
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment [37]
Climate Action Network [38]
Sidebox:
Paul Rogers is professor in the department of peace studies [39] at Bradford University, northern
England. He is openDemocracy's international-security editor, and has been writing a weekly
column on global security since 28 September 2001; he also writes a monthly briefing for the Oxford
Research Group [40]. His books include Why We’re Losing the War on Terror [41](Polity, 2007), and
Losing Control: Global Security in the 21st Century [26](Pluto Press, 3rd edition, 2010). He is on
twitter at: @ProfPRogers
A lecture by Paul Rogers on sustainable security [42], delivered to the Quaker yearly meeting [43] on
3 August 2011, provides an overview of the analysis that underpins his openDemocracy column. It is
available in two parts and can be accessed from here [44]
Related stories: The global climate cliff [45]
The climate shift: think and prepare [46]
Non-violence: past, present, future [47]
The climate cliff: nuclear echoes [48]
An extreme climate: dangers and needs [49]
Climate change: canary to ghost [50]
The climate peril: a race against time [51]
Climate change: a failure of leadership [52]
A world on the edge [53]
Climate change and global security [54]
A new security paradigm: the military-climate link [55]
Climate science: a peace-studies lesson [56]
Beyond "liddism": towards real global security [57]
Climate protest: rock the state, save the planet [58]
Climate change: time to transform [59]
A global threat multiplier [60]
Topics: Democracy and government
International politics
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About the author
Page 3 of 7
2014, a climate emergency
Published on openDemocracy (https://www.opendemocracy.net)
Paul Rogers is professor in the department of peace studies [39] at Bradford University, northern
England. He is openDemocracy's international security adviser, and has been writing a weekly
column on global security since 28 September 2001; he also writes a monthly briefing for the Oxford
Research Group [40]. His latest book is Irregular War: ISIS and the New Threat from the Margins [61]
(IB Tauris, 2016), which follows Why We’re Losing the War on Terror [41](Polity, 2007), and Losing
Control: Global Security in the 21st Century [26](Pluto Press, 3rd edition, 2010). He is on Twitter at:
@ProfPRogers [62]
A lecture by Paul Rogers, delivered to the Food Systems Academy [63] in late 2014, provides an
overview of the analysis that underpins his openDemocracy column. The lecture - "The crucial
century, 1945-2045: transforming food systems in a global context [64]" - focuses on the central
place of food systems in human security worldwide. Paul argues that food is the pivot of humanity's
next great transition. It can be accessed here [64]
Related Articles
The global climate cliff [45]
Paul Rogers [1]The climate shift: think and prepare [46]
Paul Rogers [1]Non-violence: past, present, future [47]
Paul Rogers [1]The climate cliff: nuclear echoes [48]
Paul Rogers [1]An extreme climate: dangers and needs [49]
Paul Rogers [1]Climate change: canary to ghost [50]
Paul Rogers [1]The climate peril: a race against time [51]
Paul Rogers [1]Climate change: a failure of leadership [52]
Paul Rogers [1]A world on the edge [53]
Paul Rogers [1]Climate change and global security [54]
Paul Rogers [1]A new security paradigm: the military-climate link [55]
Paul Rogers [1]Climate science: a peace-studies lesson [56]
Paul Rogers [1]Beyond "liddism": towards real global security [57]
Paul Rogers [1]Climate protest: rock the state, save the planet [58]
Paul Rogers [1]Climate change: time to transform [59]
Paul Rogers [1]A global threat multiplier [60]
Paul Rogers [1]
Read On
Department of peace studies, Bradford University [24]
World Meteorological Organisation [8]
The Global Climate 2001-2010: A Decade of Climate Extremes [10] (WMO, July 2013)
Oxford Research Group [25]
Paul Rogers, Losing Control: Global Security in the 21st Century [26] (Pluto, 3rd edition, 2010)
Paul Rogers, Global Security and the War on Terror: Elite Power and the Illusion of Control [27]
(Routledge, 2007)
The Great Transition [28]
New Economics Foundation [29]
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature [30] (Best) project
Real Clear Science [31]
Tim Jackson, Prosperity Without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet [32] (Earthscan 2009)
National Sea and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) [33]
Page 4 of 7
2014, a climate emergency
Published on openDemocracy (https://www.opendemocracy.net)
Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows & Jorgen Randers, Limits to Growth: the 30-Year Update [34]
(Chelsea Green, 2004)
State of the Planet [35]
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University [36]
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment [37]
Climate Action Network [38]
More On
Paul Rogers is professor in the department of peace studies [39] at Bradford University, northern
England. He is openDemocracy's international-security editor, and has been writing a weekly
column on global security since 28 September 2001; he also writes a monthly briefing for the Oxford
Research Group [40]. His books include Why We’re Losing the War on Terror [41](Polity, 2007), and
Losing Control: Global Security in the 21st Century [26](Pluto Press, 3rd edition, 2010). He is on
twitter at: @ProfPRogers
A lecture by Paul Rogers on sustainable security [42], delivered to the Quaker yearly meeting [43] on
3 August 2011, provides an overview of the analysis that underpins his openDemocracy column. It is
available in two parts and can be accessed from here [44]
Subjects
Democracy and government [65]
International politics [66]
The politics of climate change [67]
Globalisation [68]
global security [69]
Climate change [70]
democracy & power [71]
Related Articles
The global climate cliff [45]
Paul Rogers [1]
The climate shift: think and prepare [46]
Paul Rogers [1]
Non-violence: past, present, future [47]
Paul Rogers [1]
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[2] http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/11/11/world/asia/typhoon-haiyan-map.html?_r=1&
[3]
http://www.opendemocracy.net/colin-walch/typhoon-haiyan-natural-disaster-meets-armed-conflict
[4] http://www.hko.gov.hk/climate_change/climate_change_e.htm
[5] http://www.cma.gov.cn/en/
[6] http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/extreme-climate-dangers-and-needs
[7] http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/148658/city-weather-alert-reduced-to-yellow[8] http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html
[9] http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/global-climate-cliff
[10] http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_976_en.html
[11] http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_981_en.html
[12] http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130905-extremeweatherandclimateevents.html
[13] http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/climate-change-time-to-transform
[14] http://www.government-online.net/david-cameron-much-suspects-climate-change-behind-recent
-storms/
[15] http://uk.news.yahoo.com/landmarks-damaged-storms-cameron-suspects-climate-change-15584
9082.html
[16] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4512202.stm
[17] http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/opinion/2294670/backbench-assault-on-climate-laws-reflectsuk-policy-uncertainty
[18] http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199566600.001.0001/oxfordhb-9
780199566600-e-10
[19] http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/climate-change-canary-to-ghost
[20] http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-12/21/denial
[21] http://www.ukfloodbarriers.co.uk/Default.aspx
[22] http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/climate-change-a-failure-of-leadership
[23] http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/a_global_threat_multiplier
[24] http://www.brad.ac.uk/peace/index.php
[25] http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/
[26] http://www.plutobooks.com/display.asp?K=9780745329376&
[27] http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415419383/
[28] http://www.neweconomics.org/publications/entry/the-great-transition
[29] http://www.neweconomics.org/
[30] http://berkeleyearth.org/
[31] http://www.realclearscience.com/
[32] http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=914
[33] http://nsidc.org/glaciers/
[34] http://www.chelseagreen.com/bookstore/item/limits_to_growth:paperback
[35] http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/
[36] http://www.ccsr.columbia.edu/
[37] http://www.acia.uaf.edu/
[38] http://www.climatenetwork.org/
[39] http://www.brad.ac.uk/acad/peace/
[40] http://oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/
[41] http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0745641962,subjectCd-PO34,descCd-authorI
nfo.html
[42] http://sustainablesecurity.org/what-sustainable-security
[43] http://www.quaker.org.uk/ym-updates
[44] http://www.networkforpeace.org.uk/resources/qpsw/paul-rogers-lecture-sustainable-security
[45] https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/global-climate-cliff
[46] https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/climate-shift-think-and-prepare
[47] https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/non-violence-past-present-future
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[48] https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/climate-cliff-nuclear-echoes
[49] https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/extreme-climate-dangers-and-needs
[50] https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/climate-change-canary-to-ghost
[51] https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/climate-peril-race-against-time
[52] https://www.opendemocracy.net/article/climate-change-a-failure-of-leadership
[53] https://www.opendemocracy.net/article/a-world-on-the-edge
[54] https://www.opendemocracy.net/conflict/article_864.jsp
[55] https://www.opendemocracy.net/article/a-new-security-paradigm-the-military-climate-link
[56] https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/climate-science-peace-studies-lesson
[57] https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/beyond-%E2%80%9Cliddism%E2%80%9D-towards
-real-global-security
[58] https://www.opendemocracy.net/article/climate-protest-rock-the-state-save-the-planet
[59] https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/climate-change-time-to-transform
[60] https://www.opendemocracy.net/article/a_global_threat_multiplier
[61] http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/books/irregular_war_isis_and_new_threat_m
argins
[62] https://twitter.com/ProfPRogers
[63] http://www.foodsystemsacademy.org.uk/index.html
[64] http://www.tansey.org.uk/news/PRtalk.html
[65] https://www.opendemocracy.net/topics/democracy-and-government
[66] https://www.opendemocracy.net/topics/international-politics
[67] https://www.opendemocracy.net/editorial-tags/politics-of-climate-change
[68] https://www.opendemocracy.net/editorial-tags/globalisation
[69] https://www.opendemocracy.net/columns/global_security.jsp
[70] https://www.opendemocracy.net/theme_9-climatechange/debate.jsp
[71] https://www.opendemocracy.net/democracy_and_power/index.jsp
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