Download Democracy Democracy is rare What explains why some countries

Democracy
Democracy is rare
Definitions:
The rule by many (as oppossed to Monarchy,
or Oligarchy – Aristotle).
Form of government exhibiting high levels of
contestation and participation (Robert
Dahl).
Form of government in which “who rules” is
decided by elections.(Przeworski)
• By any definition, Democracy is historically
rare, though recently, it appears ubiquitous.
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What explains why some
countries are democractic and
others are not?
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Modernization Theory
• Modernization Theory
• Class Analysis
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• Democracy depends on certain attitudes
(equality, individual freedom, non-violent
conflict resolution, “rule of law”, etc.) that
are alledged to be inherent in cultures and
inconsistent with others.
Social/Economic Explanations
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Cultural explanations
• Cultural explanations
• Social/Economic explanations
• Institutional Explanation
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• Societies develop through a series of stages
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Strong Relationship between
wealth and democracy
But is this because:
• Countries are more likely to become
democratic as they become rich …. Or
• Countries that become democratic are more
likely to stay democratic if they are rich
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Source: Przeworski and Limongi (1997)
Dictatorship is more common in poor
countries, Democracy is more common
in Rich countries
Modernization Theory
Country Years Under Different Regimes
Total number of years under regime
• As (countries) gevelop, social structure becomes
complex, labor processes begin to require active
cooperation of employees, and new groups emerge
and organize. As a result, the system can no longer
be effectively run by command: the society is too
complex, techological change endows the direct
producers with some autonomy and private
information, civil society emerges, and dictatorial
forms of control lose their effectiveness.
(Przeworski and Limongi, 1997:157).
1000
900
800
700
600
Years under Aut
500
Years Under Dem
400
300
200
100
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
Per Capita GDP (1985 PPP)
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Virtually all rich countries are
democracies
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These results are consistent with
Modernization Theory, but
Share of democracies as a function of wealth
years of democracy/(years of dem +
years of dictatorship)
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• Are countries Democractic because the got
“Rich”?
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– Possible that rich countries have something else
that makes them inclined to be democracies, in
which case, the observed correlation between
wealth and democracy is accidental.
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Wealth
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2
If modernization theory was
correct, we would observe
Alternative Explanations
• Poor countries that were stable autocracies
until they got sufficiently rich, then they
would become democracies.
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• Rich countries have more educated people,
democracy functions better with an
educated electorate.
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The kind of transition a country experiences is
a function of wealth – A transition to authoritarianism becomes
Poor countries are not stable
less likely and transition to democracy becomes more likely as wealth increases
Number of Regime Transitions as a Function of Wealth
Probability of Regime Transitions as a function of
Wealth
35
0.14
25
#(Dem)
20
#(Aut)
15
# transitions
10
Prob(Transition)
30
0.12
0.1
p(Dem )
0.08
p(Aut)
0.06
p(transition)
0.04
0.02
0
5
0
0
0
2
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6
8
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So, we observe countries at all
levels of development
experimenting with democracy
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6
8
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Why are rich democracies stable?
• But if a country is rich and it become democratic
(for some reason) it is likely to stay a democracy.
• Rich dictatorships are also more stable than poor
dictatorships,
• But because rich democracies are MORE stable
than rich dictatorships, rich dictatorships will
eventually fail and when they do, they are likely to
stay democracies.
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Per Capita GDP (1985 PPP)
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• Choice between democracy and autocracy can be
thought of as a choice between a system where
you are guaranteed a minimal standard of
consumption (democracy), vs. a system where you
win or lose everything (autocracy).
• When you have a lot (I.e. when you are rich),
getting a bigger share only effects your welfare a
little, where as losing everything could be
disastrous.
So, if you’re rich, autocracy is a big gamble, but
when you’re poor, its not.
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3
Alternative explanation
Institutional Explanations
• There are more educated people in rich
countries than poor countries.
• Democracy works better when the
electorate is educated.
• Therefore, democracies survive because of
high levels of education, not wealth.
How would you test this argument?
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• Future lectures
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