Download Chapter 1: Introduction to Global Climate Change

Chapter 1: Introduction to Global Climate Change
“Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” This comment,
attributed to Mark Twain in 1897, is no longer valid. Today human activities influence climate on both a local and global scale. Average temperatures are rising. Storms and forest
fires seem to be increasing in severity (Figure 1.1). The vagaries of weather may obscure
specific cause and effect relationships, but humans are definitely part of the equation.
Humans are also part of the solution. To diminish the potential damage from climate
change, governments have implemented policies that range from limiting carbon emissions
to reinforcing levees. As the public has become more aware about this issue, consumer behavior including vehicle purchases and recycling of materials increasingly reflects their
concerns.
On contentious issues such as global climate change, a broad understanding generally
contributes to the quality of debate. This book considers the factors responsible for climate
change and the geophysical, biological, economic, legal, and cultural consequences of such
change as well as various mitigation strategies. It highlights the complexity of decisionmaking using uncertain information and compares the methods that various disciplines
employ to evaluate past and future conditions.
Most textbooks concentrate on a single discipline (e.g., Geophysics, Biology, or Economics) or sub-discipline (e.g., Glaciology, Plant Physiology, or Macroeconomics); they introduce the major concepts and then apply them to several examples. This book, by contrast,
Figure 1.1 Hurricane Katrina extends across the Gulf of Mexico as it approaches New Orleans on
August 28, 2005. Imagery from the GOES-12 weather satellite. http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/hurseas2005/
Katrina1545zD-050828-1kg12.jpg
Arnold J. Bloom © 2008
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Chapter 1: Introduction
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
Figure 1.2 Doom & Gloom
with Bloom. The author,
Arnold J. Bloom, marching in Times Square, New
York City, USA.
focuses on a single application—Global Climate Change—and relates concepts from a
number of natural and social sciences to it. Lacking expertise over such a wide spectrum,
everyone will find certain topics challenging; nonetheless, stretching to maintain flexibility
becomes critical as one matures.
Articles on environmental issues frequently evoke Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD)
that further exploitation of natural resources might cause irrevocable damage. Excessive
use of FUD, however, inures the public to such issues (“crying wolf”) or, worse, elicits fatalistic despair. This book will deserve the subtitle Doom & Gloom with Bloom (Figure 1.2) if it
fails to present a more balanced perspective and occasionally unbridled optimism.
The present chapter recalls the last 70 years of research on global climate change. The
next three chapters constitute a geophysical section that examines the past, present, and
future of Earth’s climate: Chapter 2 presents historical reconstructions of temperature and a
few other climatic parameters, Chapter 3 details the factors that influence climate, and
Chapter 4 describes global climate models and what they predict about changes during the
next century. Subsequent sections of the book introduce direct and indirect effects of climate change on organisms, mitigation strategies and the economics thereof, international
cooperation and accords, and finally the interplay of culture and political action.
Climate
The weather page in your local newspaper includes information on the daily (a) maximum
and minimum temperatures, (b) humidity, (c) precipitation, and (d) wind speed and direction. Long-term averages of these parameters define the climate in your area. For example,
in Davis, California, over 80% of the rainfall occurs during the winter months (Figure 1.3)
and, thus, Davis is considered to have a Mediterranean climate.
“Climate is what we expect; weather is what we get,” another statement attributed to
Mark Twain. In other words, weather parameters are highly variable from day-to-day or
year-to-year. Over an eleven-year period, total precipitation during the month of December
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
–2–
Chapter 1: Introduction
Davis, California
Precipitation (mm)
300
200
100
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
Figure 1.3 Precipitation
(millimeters of water) in
Davis, California for each
month during the last decade and typical values
(long-term averages).
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Typical
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
in Davis ranged from 0 to 250 mm (Figure 1.3). Consequently, predicting daily weather
from climatic trends is seldom worthwhile. Moreover, subtle changes in climate over several decades are difficult to discern against a fluctuating background.
The first to discover the recent warming trend in Earth’s climate and associate it with
fossil fuel emissions was Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964). Callendar’s father, Hugh
Longbourne Callendar, was a professor of physics at the Imperial College of Science, London, who developed the platinum resistance thermometer, an instrument which permitted
continuous recording of temperatures with unprecedented accuracy. Guy Stewart Callendar, although he had a career as a steam engineer for the British Electrical and Allied Industries Research Association, inherited his father’s interest in temperature measurement and,
as a hobby, scrutinized weather records from around the world.
Guy Stewart Callendar grouped together data from the most reliable weather stations
in a given region of the world and weighted each group according to the area represented
by its stations (Callendar 1938). He calculated ten-year moving averages (the average of the
values 5 years before and 5 years after a given date) to smooth out year-to-year variation
(Figure 1.4). This analysis suggested that world temperatures had increased more than
0.2°C between 1890 and 1935. Based on crude measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere and a simplistic model, Callendar proposed that rising CO2
levels were responsible for over half of this warming.
The ideas of Callendar, an amateur encroaching on a discipline with licensed profesFigure 1.4
A graph
from Callendar’s publication in 1938 showing
temperature
patterns
(°C) for various climatic
zones and of the Earth.
Ten year running averages with respect to the
average
temperatures
from 1901 – 1930
(Callendar 1938).
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
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Chapter 1: Introduction
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
90°N
Figure 1.5 Average wind
speeds (meters per second)
at ground level around the
globe. The black dotted
ellipse on the left demarcates the Hawaiian Islands.
http://eosweb.larc.nasa.
gov/sse/documents/SSE_
Methodology.pdf
60°N
30°N
0
30°S
60°S
90°S
180°
120°W
60°W
0
60°E
120°E
180
0.0 1.3 2.7 3.5 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 >12.0
Average Wind Speed (m s–1)
sionals, were not well received (Weart 2003). Most climatologists of the day believed that
temperature data were so random that one could statistically manipulate these data to support nearly any conclusion. For example, Helmut E. Landsberg (1906-1985), perhaps the
th
most renowned climatologist of the 20 century (Baer 1992), declared, “There is no scientific
reason to believe that our climate will change radically in the next few decades, hence we
can safely accept the past performance as an adequate guide for the future.” (Landsberg
1946)
The scientific establishment also doubted whether atmospheric CO2 concentrations had
changed significantly (Weart 2003). Readings of CO2 concentrations would shift with the
winds because local sources that release CO2 such as nearby factories and sinks that absorb
CO2 such as nearby forests influenced every sample. The consensus was that nearly all the
CO2 released from fossil fuel burning would dissolve in the immense volume of Earth’s
oceans, and thus atmospheric changes would be negligible.
With the dawn of the nuclear age at the end of World War II, atmospheric and oceanic
scientists became preoccupied with other products of human ingenuity, namely radioactive
wastes. In 1954, fallout from an American nuclear bomb test injured the crew of a Japanese
fishing vessel, and later that year came the release of Gojira, the first in a long series of horror movies to feature Godzilla, a monster created by an American nuclear bomb test. Anxi14
ety was escalating. Would radioactive carbon dioxide ( CO2), which was generated in the
atmosphere during nuclear explosions, dissolve in the oceans and widely contaminate sea
life and seafood?
Roger Revelle (1909-1991) and Hans Suess (1909-1993) of the Scripps Institution of
14
Oceanography in San Diego, California, analyzed the exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and the oceans. They published a seminal work in 1957 showing that only a thin,
upper layer of seawater rapidly exchanged materials with the atmosphere (Revelle and
Suess 1957). These results had broad implications. On the positive side, contamination of
sea life from nuclear testing would be highly localized; but on the negative side, the oceans
would remove only a small portion of the CO2 being released into the atmosphere.
Technological advances by the mid-1950s had increased the precision of CO2 measurements ten-fold. C. D. (Dave) Keeling (1928-2005) also of Scripps garnered funds from the
International Geophysical Year in 1956 to establish two atmospheric CO2 monitoring sta-
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
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Chapter 1: Introduction
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
Mauna Kea
Hilo
Kailua
Mauna Loa
Observatory
Figure 1.6A Satellite photos of Hawaii showing the location of the Mauna Loa Observatory.
Figure 1.6B The observatory in 1982 shown against the backdrop of the neighboring peak Mauna Kea.
http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/corps/images/big/corp2689.jpg
tions. To minimize the influence of local disturbances, he chose sites that were remote from
industrial and biological sources of CO2 and were subject to strong prevailing winds (Figure 1.5). One site was at the South Pole and the other was on the Island of Hawaii at the
Mauna Loa Observatory atop the northern flank of the Mauna Loa volcano at an elevation
of 3397 meters (Figures 1.6).
Monitoring at the South Pole began in September, 1957, and at Mauna Loa six months
later. Concentrations of CO2 at Mauna Loa, in contrast to those from the South Pole, oscillated from month to month (Figure 1.7), raising doubts about the verity of the data (Keeling
400
Figure 1.7 Monthly average CO2
concentration (parts per million:
1 ppm means that there is 1 microliter of CO2 per liter of total
gas) in the atmosphere at the
South Pole and near the summit
of Mauna Loa in Hawaii. The
inset in the upper left corner
shows data from the first few
years on an expanded scale. Data
obtained from
320
CO2 concentration (ppm)
380
360
310
1955
1965
1960
340
South Pole
Mauna Loa
320
300
1955
http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/projects/
src/web/trends/co2_mm_mlo.dat
1965
1975
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
1985
Year
1995
–5–
2005
Chapter 1: Introduction
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
Figure 1.8 A graph from
Landberg’s publication in
1958 showing temperature patterns (°F) for the
summer (June – August)
and winter (December –
February) at Winthrup
College, South Carolina,
USA. The data was
smoothed by a mathematical function (normal
curve). Dashed lines are
the general temperature
trend for the region
(Landsberg 1958).
1978). Fortunately, with more observations, Keeling realized that the oscillations at Mauna
Loa reflected an annual cycle of CO2 sequestration and release by terrestrial ecosystems on
nearby continents. Funding for the South Pole station ran out after about two years, during
which CO2 concentrations rose from 311 to 314 ppm (parts per million; 1 ppm = 0.0001%).
The Mauna Loa station, except for when funding was suspended for three months in 1964
(Weart 2003), has provided a continuous record of atmospheric CO2 levels that has become
known as the Keeling curve (Figure 1.7).
As evidence accumulated, the scientific establishment became more receptive to the
ideas of global warming and its relationship to atmospheric CO2 levels. H. E. Landsberg,
who by 1958 had become the Director of the Office of Climatology in the U. S. Weather Bureau, modified his stance,
“For nearly a half century, a general warming trend has been noted…For the moderate latitudes, 30° to 50°N in the area around the Atlantic, the natural rise can be estimated at about 2°F (1.1°C) per century (Figure 1.8)…
“For the latest temperature change, there is an important contender as cause: atmospheric carbon dioxide. There are some interpretations of historical and current
observations pointing toward a gradual increase of this atmospheric constituent…Carbon dioxide is an absorber of outgoing long-wave radiation, and hence has
an influence…often referred to as the ‘greenhouse effect.’ ” (Landsberg 1958)
Current State of Affairs
Disagreements still remain about the degree to which the recent warming in global temperatures deviates from normal climatic cycles. Direct measurements of temperature have
been available from weather stations around the world only since 1861. To reconstruct
temperature patterns before 1861 requires the use of proxy measures, parameters strongly
correlated with temperature that can be dated with accuracy. Chapter 2 on the history of
Earth’s climate considers different types of proxy measures.
In 1999, Michael Mann (currently a professor at Pennsylvania State University) and coworkers reconstructed the mean annual temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere over the
last 1,000 years from a variety of direct and proxy measures (Mann, Bradley, and Hughes
1999). The graph (Figure 1.9) became affectionately known as the “hockey stick” because
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
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Chapter 1: Introduction
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
Figure 1.9 A graph from the publication of Mann et al. in 1999 showing
the average annual temperatures (°C)
of the Northern Hemisphere reconstructed from a variety of sources.
The zero line corresponds to the average from 1902 to 1980. The light dotted lines surrounding the darker core
represent the positive and negative
uncertainty limits from a statistical
test. The thick dark line represents the
long-term trends after mathematical
filtering (low-pass) (Mann, Bradley,
and Hughes 1999).
the “shaft” representing the first nine centuries was relatively straight, whereas the “blade”
representing the current century was abruptly bent upward. They proposed (Mann, Bradley, and Hughes 1998), as did Callendar and Landsberg many decades earlier, that emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels were responsible
for the dramatic warming trend.
Yet the political climate of the USA had changed in 2002. Fossil fuel companies assumed a larger role in governmental policies on energy, and the link between global warming and fossil fuel consumption was troubling. ExxonMobil, the largest supplier of fossil
fuels, distributed over $8 million from 2000 through 2003 to organizations who promoted
the message that the scientific basis for global climate change was unsound (Greenpeace
2004; McKibben, Mooney, and Gelbspan 2005). The hockey stick became even more contentious, and the U.S. Congress requested that the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, a
body of prestigious scientists, verify Mann’s research.
Eight years after Mann and coworkers published their ten-page article, the committee
appointed by the National Academy released a 196-page report (National Research Council
2006). This report upheld the major premise of the hockey stick: global temperatures have
warmed more than 0.6°C during the last century, and such changes are without precedent
during the preceding four centuries and probably much longer. In particular, the year 2006
was the hottest on record, followed in descending order by 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2001, and
2004. All indications are that this warming trend will continue and perhaps even accelerate.
About 130 stations around the world now monitor atmospheric CO2 concentrations and
have affirmed the trends first found in Keeling’s data from the South Pole and Mauna Loa.
Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have increased worldwide (Figure 1.10). Concentrations are lower in the summer when plants incorporate CO2 into organic carbon via photosynthesis and higher in the winter when biological respiration exceeds photosynthesis and
releases CO2 from organic carbon. Seasonal variation is greater in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere because the Northern Hemisphere has substantially more land mass (Figure 3.12) and thus more terrestrial organisms that conduct rapid photosynthesis and heavy
breathing.
Global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations show a positive correlation,
both in the current century (Figures 1.7 & 1.9) and during the last 650,000 years (Chapter 2).
Admittedly, correlation does not necessitate causality. For example, in a parody of scientific
method, Bobby Henderson—self-described as an unemployed, amateur pirate with a phys-
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
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Chapter 1: Introduction
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
Figure 1.10 Global distribution of atmospheric CO2. A
three dimensional representation of the latitudinal distribution of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the marine
boundary layer based on
data from the GMD cooperative air sampling network.
The surface represents data
smoothed in time and latitude. Dr. Pieter Tans and
Thomas Conway, NOAA
ESRL GMD Global Carbon
Cycle, Boulder, CO.
CO2 concentration (µmol mol –1)
390
380
370
360
350
60°N
La
tit 0°
ud
e
([email protected])
60°S
1996
2002
2000
Year
1998
2006
2004
ics degree—found a negative correlation between the number of pirates and global average
temperatures (Figure 1.11) and advocates that people become pirates to stop global warming (Henderson 2006). Admittedly, this analogy seems less amusing in light of the recent
rash of pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia. In another spoof, Connie M. Meskimen, a
bankruptcy lawyer from Arkansas, suggested that daylight savings time exacerbates global
warming by setting sunrise at an earlier hour (Figure 1.12).
Few in the scientific community have turned to piracy or turned back their clocks prematurely, but most agree that global temperatures are rising and that human emissions of
CO2 and other greenhouse gases are contributing to this rise. Alternative explanations for
the current temperature trends conflict with a growing body of evidence. Even organizations with strong vested interests in fossil fuels have modified their message.
Global Average Temperature (°C)
For instance, ExxonMobil’s “Corporate Citizenship Report” in 2005 acknowledged that
“the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere poses risks that may
prove significant for society and ecosystems. We believe that these risks justify actions now,
2000
16
1980
1940
1920
15
http://www.venganza.org
1880
1820
1860
35000
45000
(Henderson 2006).
14
13
20000
15000
5000
400
Number of Pirates (approximate)
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
Figure 1.11
A parody of
scientific method suggesting
that global average temperatures are a function of the
number
of
pirates;
–8–
17
Chapter 1: Introduction
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
Figure 1.12 A tonguein-cheek letter to a local
newspaper.
http://www.nwanews.com/
adg/Editorial/187608/
You may have noticed that March of this year was particularly hot. As a matter of
fact, I understand that it was the hottest March since the beginning of the last century.
All of the trees were fully leafed out and legions of bugs and snakes were crawling
around during a time in Arkansas when, on a normal year, we might see a snowflake
or two.
This should come as no surprise to any reasonable person. As you know, Daylight
Saving Time started almost a month early this year. You would think that members of
Congress would have considered the warming effect that an extra hour of daylight
would have on our climate. Or did they?
Perhaps this is another plot by a liberal Congress to make us believe that global
warming is a real threat. Perhaps next time there should be serious studies performed
before Congress passes laws with such far-reaching effects.
CONNIE M. MESKIMEN
Hot Springs
but the selection of actions must consider the uncertainties that remain (ExxonMobil 2005).”
The report presents ExxonMobil’s view of the uncertainties, but then touts the $200 million
that ExxonMobil just bequeathed to the Global Climate and Energy Project at Stanford University in California, “the largest-ever privately funded research effort in low-greenhousegas energy.”
Other fossil fuel companies have taken similar approaches. In June of 2006, BP (formerly British Petroleum) and Chevron announced plans to allocate $500 and $400 million,
respectively, for research on biofuels. The websites of all these companies feature their efforts in developing energy resources while minimizing environmental degradation.
Tell-Tale Signs
Global warming has altered a broad range of geophysical and biological phenomena. These
are the focus of several chapters in this book. Recent changes in ice cover, however, are so
visually striking as to warrant a place in the first chapter.
Mount Kilimanjaro reaches 5,895 meters above sea level in equatorial Tanzania (Figure
1.12). Not only is it the highest peak in Africa, but it is the only place on the continent cov-
Figure 1.12 A 3-D perspective view of Mt. Kilimanjaro showing its three peaks and the nearby volcanoes
to the west (left in this view). The image was generated using topographic data from the Shuttle Radar
Topography Mission (SRTM), a Landsat 7 satellite photograph from February 21, 2000, and a false sky.
Topographic expression is vertically exaggerated two-fold. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/jpeg/PIA03355.jpg
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
–9–
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
37°20’ E
5000
Total Area Ice (km2)
Chapter 1: Introduction
12
X
R2 = 0.98
8
X
4
X
X
X
0
1900
1950
Year
2000
5500
2000
1989
3°05’ S
1976
1953
(km)
0
Figure 1.13 Mt. Kilimanjaro on February 17, 1993 (top)
and February 21, 2000 (bottom). The images, acquired
by the Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 satellites, respectively,
were draped over a digital elevation model to give a
better sense of the mountain’s shape. Differences in the
summit’s appearance in these scenes are due in part to
annual variations in snow cover. http://earthobservatory.
1912
1
4500
Figure 1.14 Outlines of the ice fields near the summit of Mt.
Kilimanjaro in 1912, 1953, 1976, 1986, and 2000. The inset illustrates the near linear decrease in ice area over time (Thompson
et al. 2002).
nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=10856
ered with snow year round, hence its name “Shining Mountain.” Satellite photographs
show the mountain in February, 1993 and 2000 (Figure 1.13). A compilation of maps outlining the ice fields near the summit document the changes over the last century (Figure 1.14).
Given the current rate of decline, the snows of Kilimanjaro will disappear during the next
few decades (Thompson et al. 2002).
At the other end of the earth, the Arctic has experienced since 1950 an increase in average temperatures of about 2°C, more than twice that observed at lower latitudes (ACIA
2005). In response, the polar ice cap is receding around 10% per decade (Figures 1.15 &
1.16). Sometime in the not too distant future, the Arctic Ocean will have an ice-free season
and realize the long-sought Northwest Passage, a sea route from the Atlantic Ocean to the
Pacific Ocean through the Canadian archipelago. This may prove to be a financial windfall
for Pat Broe, a Denver entrepreneur who bought the port of Churchill on Hudson Bay at
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
– 10 –
Chapter 1: Introduction
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
Figure 1.15 The minimum amount of sea ice in 1979 (left) and 2007 (right) based on data collected by
NASA satellites.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/arctic_minimum.html
auction for $10 Canadian in 1997: an ice-free Northwest Passage could bring up to $100 million of shipping business to Churchill each year.
An appropriate ending to this introduction is the famous figure drawn by Charles Joseph Minard (Figure 1.17), a testament to climate and the fate of empires (Tufte 2001). On
June 24, 1812, Napoleon invaded Russia, crossing the Niemen River with 422,000 men. Six
months later after experiencing temperatures as low as –38°C, the Grande Armeé departed
Russia with a mere 10,000.
Climate again played the pivotal role in the disastrous German invasion of the Soviet
Union in 1941. German forces were trapped outside of Moscow during the Russian winter
with inadequate shelter, clothing, fuel, and food. All in all, more than 4 million German and
8 million Soviet troops lost their lives on the Eastern Front.
Battling the elements has determined the outcome of many endeavors, and insufficient
consideration of climate often has dire consequences. In 2007, both military and spy agenObservations
NCAR CCSM3
UKMO HadGEM1
Sea ice extent (10 6 km2)
8
4
0
1900
1950
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
2000
Year
2050
2100
– 11 –
Figure 1.16 Extent of arctic sea ice (millions of square kilometers) in September
of each year from satellite, aircraft, and
ship observations (red) and simulations
by the two global climate models,
NCAR CCCM3 (blue) and UKMO
HadGEM1 (green), that match observations most accurately (Stoeve et al. 2007).
For more information about these and
other global climate models, see Chapter
4.
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
127,000
Studianka
Minsk
Botr
Mohilow
rain Oct. 24
Temp. (°C)
0°
0° Oct. 18
–11° Nov. 14
–14°
–33° Dec. 7
96,000
0
37,0
24,000
Orscha
00
20,0
28,
000
12,000
8,000
4,000
Molodeczno
30,000
aR
.
0
50,00
Ber
izin
Smorgoni
Malojaroslavetz
0
Smolensk
000
55,
Dorogobongr
Vilna
Wirma
87, 0
00
,0 0 0
145
33,000
175
,000
400,000
422,0
Vitebsk
–20°
–26° Nov. 14
–25° Nov. 28
–30° Dec. 1
–38° Dec. 6
–40°
Figure 1.17 A map of Napoleon’s invasion of Russia in 1812. The lighter band depicts the advance
toward Moscow, whereas the darker band depicts the retreat. The thickness of the bands reflects
the size of the French army at various locations. Temperatures (°C) in red are linked to the path of
retreat.
cies in the United States of America warned that anticipated changes in the world’s climate
pose a serious threat to the security of nations (Mazzetti 2007). In their fourth assessment,
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an organization established by the
World Meteorological Organization and United Nations, agreed that further global warming is already unavoidable due to past human activities and an international effort is required to mitigate the impacts (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007).
This book first outlines the causes and possible consequences of global climate change
and then weighs the costs versus benefits of various strategies for addressing these consequences. Simple solutions to complex problems are always suspect, and climate change is a
complex problem. This book cannot provide definitive answers to many issues, but at least
readers will receive a broad context from which to draw their own conclusions.
References
Spencer Weart’s “Discovery of Global Warming” deserves special mention. It presents a
fascinating account about the history of research on climate change. Dr. Weart regularly
updates
the
version
available
for
free
on
the
World
Wide
Web
(http://www.aip.org/history/climate/).
ACIA (2005) Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Cambridge University Press, New York,
http://www.acia.uaf.edu.
Baer, F. (1992) Helmut E. Landsberg. Memorial Tributes: National Academy of Engineering
5:153-158.
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
Moscow
10
0,0
00
Tarutino
Mojaisk
Kovno
10,000
R.
Polotsk
Gloubokoe
0
Ni e
men
,00
00
50
6,000
000
22,000
,
100
M
osc
ow
aR
.
Chjat
100,000
Chapter 1: Introduction
– 12 –
Chapter 1: Introduction
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
Callendar, G. S. (1938) The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 64:223-240.
ExxonMobil (2005) Corporate Citizenship Report, ExxonMobil, Irving, Texas.
Greenpeace (2004) Exxon Secrets. http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=167, accessed
July 1, 2006.
Henderson, B. (2006) The Gospel of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, Villard Books, New York.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Summary for policymakers. World Meteoroligical Organization,
Working Group II, http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM13apr07.pdf, accessed May 1, 2007.
Keeling, C. D. (1978) The influence of Mauna Loa observatory on the development of atmospheric CO2 research. In: Mauna Loa Observatory: A 20th Anniversary Report, Miller,
J., ed., NOAA Special Report, Silver Springs, MD.
Landsberg, H. (1946) Climate as a natural resource. The Scientific Monthly 63:293-298.
Landsberg, H. E. (1958) Trends in Climatology. Science 128:749-758.
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes (1998) Global-scale temperature patterns and
climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 392:779-787.
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes (1999) Northern hemisphere temperatures
during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysical
Research Letters 26:759-762.
Mazzetti, M. (2007) Spy Chief Backs Study of Impact of Warming. The New York Times, May
12, 2007.
McKibben, B., C. Mooney, and R. Gelbspan (2005) Put a Tiger In Your Think Tank. Mother
Jones, http://www.motherjones.com/news/featurex/2005/05/exxon_chart.html, accessed
July 1, 2006.
National Research Council (2006) Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years,
The
National
Academies
Press,
Washington,
D.C.,
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11676.html.
Revelle, R. and H. E. Suess (1957) Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean
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Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
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Chapter 1: Introduction
Arnold J. Bloom © 2009
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
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