Download Vulnerability of Tasmania`s Natural Environment to Climate Change

Vulnerability of Tasmania’s
Natural Environment
to Climate Change:
An Overview
Depar tment of
Pr imar y Industr ies, Par ks, Water and Environment
Citation: Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment,
Resource Management and Conservation Division (2010).
Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Overview.
Unpublished report. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Hobart.
Acknowledgements: Louise Gilfedder, Felicity Faulkner and Jennie Whinam were responsible for the
production of this document. However, many DPIPWE staff contributed to this report through discussions,
comments on early drafts and provision of written and photographic material and their help is gratefully
acknowledged. These include Michael Askey-Doran, Jayne Balmer, Stewart Blackhall, Oberon Carter,
Andrew Crane, Brooke Craven, Michael Driessen, Rolan Eberhard, Bryce Graham, Stephen Harris, Ian
Houshold, Drew Lee, Declan McDonald, Clarissa Murphy, Annie Phillips, Adrian Pyrke, Tim Rudman, Peter
Voller and Howel Williams. Greg Holz and Michael Grose from the Climate Futures for Tasmania Project
are thanked for their assistance with climate data.
Thanks also to Brett Littleton of the ILS Design Unit of DPIPWE who did the graphic design.
ISBN (Book): 978-0-7246-6532-7
ISBN (Web): 978-0-7246-6533-4
Cover: Frozen puddles in buttongrass moorland (Oberon Carter). Insets: Red-capped dotterel (Mick
Brown), Shaw’s cowfish (Benita Vincent), Short candleheath (DPIPWE).
Inside Cover: Macquarie Island Nature Reserve (Tim Rudman).
Back Inside Cover: Wet forest (Matt Taylor).
© Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, 2010.
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however arising, from the use of, or reliance on this information.
Vulnerability of Tasmania’s
Natural Environment
to Climate Change:
An Overview
Secretary’s Foreword
Tasmania is a special place, an archipelago of 334 islands,
with rugged wild coastline and mountainous regions,
wilderness and unique natural heritage. The island
supports wide geographical, climatic and environmental
variation providing a range of habitats for our wildlife
and our rich and diverse flora. Over 40% of the state is
protected in reserves, including the Tasmanian Wilderness
and Macquarie Island World Heritage areas. We are
indeed in a unique position.
Climate change increasingly presents a major challenge
for biodiversity conservation planning and natural
resource management in Tasmania. Biodiversity has
been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors
to the impacts of climate change. Natural systems and
the biodiversity they contain underpin the provision of
ecological processes, including nutrient, carbon and water
cycling, and help maintain ecological services such as water
purification, carbon storage, pollination and pest control.
Our economy and our well-being are reliant on a healthy
natural environment.
The Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and
Environment has a key role in managing and preserving
our beautiful, unique State, including caring for Tasmania’s
past, present and future natural heritage. We must
work with the community, business, industry and nongovernment sectors to build resilience so that we can
reduce the vulnerability of the natural environment to the
potential impacts of climate change.
My Department currently has projects underway that
focus on climate change projection and adaptation.
The Adaptation to Climate Change for Tasmania’s Natural
Systems Project is one of these initiatives. The project will
provide information about the impact of climate change
on the State’s natural values to enable adaptation to be
incorporated into policy and management responses for
the sustainable management and conservation of our
natural resources. This report is part of that process.
Kim Evans
Secretary
Department of
Primary Industries, Parks, Water & Environment
ii
Secretar y’s foreword
Overview
The Tasmanian Government’s Framework for Action on
Climate Change identified four areas where Tasmania
should initially focus in adapting to climate change:
There is general consensus that climate change will result
in increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global
average sea level.
- Ensuring scientific research provides a firm foundation
for taking action in different regions and different
sectors by measuring and predicting climate change
and identifying new approaches;
- Giving individuals, communities and businesses
appropriate information, resources, skills and incentives
to plan and adapt to climate change and manage their
own risks;
- Providing an adequate and appropriate emergency
response to more frequent and intense events, such as
bushfires, floods and storms, and assisting communities
recover from such events; and
- Managing risks to public infrastructure, assets and
values (including roads, biodiversity, national parks and
reserves), and protecting industry and the community
against health and bio-security risks.
Over the coming decades Tasmania is expected to
experience:
- increased land and sea temperatures;
- changes to rainfall patterns and higher evaporation in
most areas;
- wind speed changes; and
- sea level rises.
Despite global and local efforts to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions, some level of climate change is now inevitable,
and we will need to adapt the way we do things to
maintain Tasmania’s social, environmental and economic
wellbeing.
Dealing with climate change will be part of the reality of
life in Tasmania for many decades to come.
This Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to
Climate Change: An Overview provides input into all
four adaptation priorities identified by the Tasmanian
Government. Taking action to adapt to inevitable change
is vital if we are to protect and sustainably manage our
unique natural environment.
The Australian Government and all Australian State and
Territory Governments have recognised the importance
of adapting to climate change. There is agreement that:
- some climate change is unavoidable
- attention needs to be paid now to our climate change
adaptation needs
- adaptation is a shared responsibility – governments,
business and the community all have a role.
Wendy Spencer
Executive Director
Tasmanian Climate Change Office
Department of Premier and Cabinet
Over view
iii
Table of Contents
Foreword by Kim Evans (Secretary, Department of
Primary Industries, Parks, Water & Environment). . . . . . . . ii
4 Potential Impact of Climate Change
on Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial
Ecosystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Overview by Wendy Spencer (Director, Tasmanian
Climate Change Office). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
Key values. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Impacts on key drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
5 Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity . . . . 29
International and national responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Setting the scene - Tasmania’s natural heritage. . . . . . . . . 3
Key values. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Tasmania’s reserve estate and World Heritage Areas. . . . 4
Impacts on key drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Tasmania and global climate history. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Ecosystem level responses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Potential climate change and its physical effects
in Tasmania. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Alpine, subalpine and highland treeless ecosystems. . . 32
Increased CO2 concentrations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Forest, woodland and sssociated ecosystems . . . . . . . . 36
Temperature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Lowland grassland ecosystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Rainfall. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Species level responses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Moorlands and peatlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Snow and frost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Other terrestrial effects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
6 Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Marine and Coastal Ecosystems . . . . . . . 45
Effects of oceans and ocean currents on
terrestrial weather. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Key values. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Changes in the physical marine environment . . . . . . . . 10
Predicted impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. . 50
Sea level rise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Tasmania’s subantarctic Macquarie Island. . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
2 Interaction of Current Stressors to
Natural Values with Climate Change. . . 12
7 Responding to Climate Change. . . . . . . . 56
Fire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Invasive species. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Wildlife diseases and pathogens. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Impacts on key drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Mitigation and adaptation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Principles for managing natural assets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Monitoring the impacts of climate change on
key natural assets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Land use change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
8 Glossary of Terms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3 Potential Impact on Tasmania’s
Geoconservation and Land Resource
Values. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
9 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Key values. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Impacts on key drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
iv
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Climate change is a global issue and Tasmania, like other
parts of Australia, is already showing evidence of change.
Much of Tasmania has experienced a warming in average
maximum temperatures since the 1970’s, accompanied by
strong decreases in rainfall. Sea level has risen 10-20 cm
in the last century, with water temperatures off Tasmania’s
east coast increasing by more than 1°C since the 1940s.
Ocean acidity levels have also increased in recent times,
along with atmospheric CO2 levels.
Assessment of the Vulnerability of Australia’s Biodiversity to
Climate Change (Steffen et al. 2009), was released in 2009,
along with a technical synthesis and a summary for policy
makers. National assessments have also been undertaken
to assess the implications of climate change for related
issues, including marine life (Hobday et al. 2006), Australia’s
National Reserve System (Dunlop & Brown 2008), natural
resource management (Campbell 2008), World Heritage
Properties (Australian National University 2009), and fire
regimes (Williams et al. 2009).
Climate change increasingly presents a major challenge for
biodiversity conservation planning and natural resources
management. Government, natural resource managers,
land managers, community organisations and the broader
community in Tasmania all need to consider the impacts
of climate change, and the mitigation and adaptation
efforts that we can all undertake to protect Tasmania’s
unique natural environment. Some climate change is now
inevitable and we need to adjust to these unavoidable
changes.
The Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to
Climate Change: An Overview is the first assessment of the
potential impacts of climate change on Tasmania’s natural
values. It will help guide the formulation of policy and
management responses for adaptation approaches that
will enhance the resilience of Tasmania’s natural systems.
Tasmania’s unique natural heritage
Tasmania is an important repository of natural diversity
that represents both elements of the rich assemblages
of natural systems and species that are part of Australia’s
ancient heritage, unique and important at a global level,
but also includes elements of this diversity that are unique
to the state.
The past decade has seen a significant increase in
responses to the threat of climate change at the
international and national scales. In 2007 the Fourth
Assessment of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (generally referred to as IPCC
AR4) completed an assessment of current scientific
understanding of the impacts of climate change on
natural, managed and human systems and the capacity of
these systems to adapt and their vulnerability. The recent
Climate Change Science Compendium (McMullen 2009),
compiled by the United Nations Environment Program,
updates and reaffirms the strong scientific evidence of
IPCC AR4, and shows that the pace and scale of climate
change is increasing at a greater rate than previously
thought by scientists. The assessment identified that
biodiversity and other natural values are one of the most
vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change.
As a mountainous state with strong climatic gradients,
Tasmania is considered to be somewhat buffered from the
predicted impacts of climate change compared to other
regions in Australia. However, we are still likely to face
major challenges.
Tasmania’s native vegetation and soils also have additional
values as they are important natural storage for carbon,
particularly in our extensive reserve system, and these
natural carbon stores will also play an important part in
our adaptation approaches.
The first national assessment of the vulnerability
of Australia’s biodiversity to climate change was
commissioned in 2007. The final report, A Strategic
Executive Summar y
v
Natural values potentially at risk
from climate change
This report undertakes an initial assessment of the
projected impact of climate change on the natural
values of Tasmania’s terrestrial, freshwater and marine
systems, considering the potential impacts on physical
and biological processes. Climate change is likely to lead
to ecosystem changes, including transformed and novel
ecosystems, and local species extinctions. Changes such
as decreased rainfall and increased temperature, and
increased frequency of extreme events such as drought,
storm surges, and fire, will variably impact on biodiversity
in different regions in Tasmania. Tasmania’s natural
values are already impacted by a range of threats and
disturbance regimes such as fire, weeds and diseases climate change may exacerbate these or lead to complex
and cumulative interactions.
Tasmania contains a wide range of geodiversity (rock
types, landforms and soils). Climate change will impact
on geomorphic process, landforms and soil systems
both directly and indirectly, with fluvial (rivers, lakes and
wetlands) and coastal/estuarine (particularly soft, sandy
coasts) systems likely to be impacted most significantly.
Soils form a critical link between landforms and vegetation
providing valuable ecosystem services, controlling
vegetation health and moderating infiltration and runoff.
Climate-induced changes to rainfall intensity, vegetation
cover, fire frequency and intensity, and windstorm intensity
all have the potential to impact on soils leading to changes
in soil hydrology, soil organic carbon, salinity, erosion and
sedimentation.
Terrestrial ecosystems considered potentially highly
vulnerable include alpine ecosystems, moorlands and
peatlands, particularly to altered fire regimes. Increased
shrub and tree invasion in these ecosystems could
lead to significantly transformed ecosystems, including
increased fuel loads. In addition Tasmanian moorlands and
peatlands may shift from accumulating carbon to releasing
carbon into the atmosphere, a serious issue for managing
Tasmania’s carbon emissions. Moorland fauna such as the
broad-toothed rat and burrowing crayfish are sensitive
to changes in moorland habitats. Species with restricted
ranges such as mountain tops or low-lying islands and
coasts, or those with life strategies or specialised habitats
and ecological requirements are also at risk to the impacts
of climate change.
Freshwater ecosystems are also considered to be highly
vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change.
Warmer temperatures, increased wind and changing
rainfall patterns are projected to impact on water
availability. Coastal wetlands will be particularly vulnerable
to changes in hydrology and the impacts of sea level rise.
Marine and coastal ecosystems are predicted to be highly
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Global
climate models predict that the greatest warming in the
Southern Hemisphere oceans will be in the Tasman Sea.
Current evidence is showing an increase in southward
extent of the East Australian Current off eastern Tasmania,
with a resultant southern extension of warmer, nutrientpoor waters, allowing the southern range extension
of marine species including pests. Significant areas of
Tasmania’s coast are at risk of erosion from exposure to
sea level rise and storm surge inundation.
Managing Tasmania’s natural heritage and dealing
with uncertainty associated with climate change will
be challenging. Nevertheless, the development and
implementation of adaptation measures to inevitable
change is vital and will require commitment and action
from all levels of government and the Tasmanian
community.
vi
Executive Summar y
1.
This report undertakes an initial
assessment of the potential impact
of climate change on the natural
values of Tasmania’s terrestrial,
freshwater and marine systems,
considering the potential impacts on
physical and biological processes. It
will assist in identifying key natural
values that are vulnerable, also
indicating where a more detailed risk
assessment is warranted in order
to identify species, communities
and places that are a key risk. This
approach will guide the formulation
of policy responses, including future
monitoring strategies and adaptive
management responses.
Australia (and Tasmania) is currently
experiencing environmental change
that is consistent with a climate
change signal. Whilst there is
considerable uncertainty about the
nature of the potential impacts from
future climate change on Tasmania’s
Introduction
natural environment, it is clear that
changes are already happening,
particularly from extreme events. In
this report we do not address the
various arguments with regard to
the evidence for climate change and
its likely causes – climate change is
accepted as a reality.
There is a lack of climate and
long-term physical and biological
data available for the southern
hemisphere, with a significant
concentration of relevant climate
science studies in the northern
hemisphere, as illustrated in
Figure 1.1 (Fischlin et al. 2007).
The potential risks identified in
this report are based on the
extrapolation of ecological and
biological principles to possible
responses to altered temperature
and rainfall, increased CO2, changes
in ocean chemistry and sea level rise.
Figure 1.1 Global locations of observed data series relating to climate change.
1
Risk assessment for
climate change
Detailed risk assessment of
vulnerability will be needed for
some natural values. Ecological
complexity and the non-linearity
of responses are two factors that
make predictions about the impacts
of climate change difficult, along
with the uncertainty of interactions
between climate change and
current pressures such as invasive
species, diseases and fire. Therefore,
to balance the complexities and
uncertainties of considering the
future impacts of climate change,
it is useful when undertaking an
assessment of the vulnerability of
the natural environment to consider
impacts in terms of the exposure
and sensitivity of organisms
and ecosystems to the changes.
Exposure is the probability that an
ecosystem will be subject to changes
in climate variables including means,
extremes and variability (e.g. coastal
systems will be exposed to sea level
rise). The sensitivity of a system
is the extent to which changes in
climate will affect the system in its
current form (e.g. alpine ecosystems
will be sensitive to an increase in
temperature). On the other hand,
the adaptive capacity of a system is
its capacity to change in a way that
makes it better equipped to deal
with changes. Illustrated in Figure
1.2, both the sensitivity and adaptive
capacity of a system will contribute
to how vulnerable the system is to
changes in climate.
Figure 1.2 The contribution of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to a
system’s overall vulnerability (Allen Consulting Group 2005).
Exposure
Sensitivity
Potential
Impact
Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
International and
national responses to
the threat of climate
change
The past decade has seen a
significant increase in responses to
the threat of climate change at the
international and national scales.
The Fourth Assessment of Working
Group II of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (generally
referred to as IPCC AR4) completed
an assessment of current scientific
understanding of the impacts of
climate change on natural, managed
and human systems, and the capacity
of these systems to adapt and their
vulnerability (Fischlin et al. 2007).
The IPCC AR4 global assessment
has identified that during the course
of this century the resilience of
many ecosystems and their ability
to adapt is likely to be exceeded
by an unprecedented combination
of change in climate, associated
disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought,
wildfire, insect herbivory, ocean
acidification) and in other global
change drivers, especially land
use change, pollution and overexploitation of resources (Fischlin et
al. 2007).
The recent Climate Change Science
Compendium (McMullen 2009)
compiled by the United Nations
Environment Program updates
and reaffirms the strong scientific
evidence of IPCC AR4, and shows
that the pace and scale of climate
change is accelerating at a greater
rate than previously thought by
scientists. Climate Change 2009:
Faster Change and More Serious Risks
(Steffen 2009) undertakes a similar
review of recent developments in
climate science but is focused more
strongly on the issues of more direct
relevance to Australia.
2
At both the national and Tasmanian
level it is accepted that climate
change and climate variability
are happening. The Council of
Australian Governments (COAG)
is committed to ensuring that an
effective and co-ordinated response
to climate change is undertaken by
national and state governments. A
National Climate Change Adaptation
Framework was endorsed by
COAG in 2007 as the basis for
government action on adaptation
(Australian Government 2007).
It includes possible actions to
assist the most vulnerable sectors
and regions, such as agriculture,
biodiversity, fisheries, forestry,
settlements and infrastructure,
coastal, water resources, tourism
and health to adapt to the impacts
of climate change. A key focus
of the Framework is to support
decision-makers to understand and
incorporate climate change into
policy and operational decisions at
all scales and across all vulnerable
sectors.
The National Resource Management
Ministerial Council commissioned
the first national assessment of
the vulnerability of Australia’s
biodiversity to climate change
in 2007 as a priority action.
The Biodiversity Vulnerability
Assessment was undertaken by
an independent Biodiversity and
Climate Change Expert Advisory
Group, a group of prominent
Australian scientists chaired by
Professor Will Steffen of The
Australian National University. The
Introduction
final report, A Strategic Assessment
of the Vulnerability of Australia’s
Biodiversity to Climate Change
(Steffen et al. 2009), was released
in June 2009, along with a technical
synthesis and a summary for policy
makers. National assessments
have also been undertaken to
assess the implications of climate
change for marine life (Hobday et
al. 2006; Poloczanska et al. 2009),
Australia’s National Reserve System
(Dunlop and Brown 2008), natural
resource management (Campbell
2008), World Heritage Properties
(Australian National University
2009), and fire regimes (Williams et
al. 2009).
The Tasmanian State Government,
along with other organisations and
the broader Tasmanian community,
is involved in the development
of climate change adaptation
strategies through its participation
in national policy development and
programs and the development and
implementation of state strategies.
Climate change increasingly presents
a major challenge for biodiversity
conservation planning in Tasmania
and for managers of key natural
assets, such as protected areas.
Setting the scene Tasmania’s natural
heritage
Australia is an isolated continent
with a unique natural heritage.
Almost 10% of all species on earth
occur in Australia, and Australia
is internationally recognised as a
global biodiversity hotspot. Many
of Australia’s species are endemic
- 85% of terrestrial mammals, 90%
of flowering plant species, frogs
and reptiles are found nowhere
else on earth (Lindenmayer 2007).
Australia’s marine environment also
has unique geological, oceanographic
and biological characteristics
(Poloczanska et al. 2007).
Approximately 85% of fish species,
90% of echinoderm species, 95% of
mollusc species are endemic (Poore
2001).
Tasmania has been isolated from
the Australian mainland for at
least 10,000 years, and supports a
wide variety of plants and animals.
There is wide geographic and
environmental variation, and high
diversity in geology, soil types,
landforms and other ecological
factors. Tasmania has a temperate
climate, with much of the state
having a mild summer, although
the Central Highland and alpine
areas have a cool summer. Annual
rainfall ranges from <700 mm to
2,300 mm. Most of Tasmania has a
wetter winter than summer, with the
exception of the east and south-east
of Tasmania which have no dominant
rainfall season.
3
Tasmania has been described as
one of Australia’s hotspots of
botanical diversity and endemism
at the large regional scale (Crisp et
al. 2001). Tasmania has elements of
biodiversity and geodiversity that
reflect southern biogeographic and
Gondwanan affinities. Many of the
Gondwanan elements are endemic
to Tasmania - 20% of the flowering
plant species are found nowhere
else, and these endemics tend to be
concentrated in alpine and rainforest
environments in western Tasmania.
Some of the endemic eucalypt
and conifer species dominate
forests, hence this uniqueness is
expressed at both the species
and the ecosystem level. Recent
research has also identified genetic
distinctiveness of non-endemic taxa
(e.g. Steane et al. 2006; Rathbone et
al. 2007; Nevill 2009). High levels
of endemism can also be found in
invertebrate taxa (up to 100% for
some groups) and for fish, and these
endemics tend to be concentrated
in western and central Tasmania
(Driessen and Mallick 2003; Mallick
and Driessen 2005).
There are approximately 1,900
native plant species, 34 native
terrestrial mammals, 159 resident
terrestrial species of birds, 21 land
reptiles, 11 amphibians and 44
freshwater fish in the state (http://
www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au). Tasmania
has provided a refuge for species
that have either died out or are
threatened with extinction on the
Australian mainland, and it has
been protected from most of the
introduced animal species that have
so greatly affected the flora and
fauna of mainland Australia. The
dingo is absent, and feral goats and
pigs have restricted distributions
in Tasmania, and the recent
introduction of the fox is a matter of
grave concern.
Tasmania’s reserve
estate and World
Heritage Areas
Under Tasmania’s Regional Forest
Agreement (RFA) in 1997
the Tasmanian and Australian
Governments agreed to establish
a comprehensive, adequate and
representative (CAR) reserve
system to ensure the long-term
conservation and protection of
Tasmania’s biodiversity, oldgrowth
and wilderness values. The reserve
system extends over land, inland
waters, estuaries and marine areas,
and includes formal, informal, and
private reserves. Since this time the
reserve system has been extended
considerably through programs and
agreements such as the Tasmanian
Community Forest Agreement,
the Crown Land Assessment
and Classification Project, Marine
Protected Area Strategy and various
private land conservation programs.
Tasmania is in a unique position
nationally, with a large amount of
its terrestrial area – 44.4% (June
2009) in reserves. Of this area,
over 60,000 ha are in covenants on
private land. The reserve system
includes large, intact areas, with
Table 1.1 The extent of major terrestrial ecosystems in Tasmania, and the amount
contained within the Tasmanian Reserve Estate in 2009.
Area in
Tasmania (ha)
% in
Reserves
61,000
55
1,776,000
36
Lowland Grassland
100,000
4
Heathland
135,000
50
Highland treeless/alpine
168,000
78
Moorland, rushland and peatland
525,000
90
Rainforest & rainforest scrubs
780,000
84
1,431,000
59
14,000
54
Major Ecosystem
Coastal
Dry forest and woodland
Wet forest
Wetland
* Ecosystems given here are based on expert groupings of TASVEG (DPIW
2009) vegetation communities.
4
a group of contiguous reserves
totalling 1.71 million hectares in the
state’s south-west, the core of which
is the Tasmanian Wilderness World
Heritage Area (TWWHA).
Tasmania’s Reserve Estate contains a
significant range of values, including
two globally recognised World
Heritage Areas. This is illustrated at a
broad level in Table 1.1, which shows
the areal extent of major terrestrial
ecosystems protected in Tasmania’s
Reserve Estate. It can be seen that
for several ecosystems, the reserve
system contains more than half of
their total extent in Tasmania. The
range of habitat types represented
by the various ecosystems in the
reserve system support a great
variety of plants and animals, as
well as containing significant stores
of carbon. The Tasmanian Reserve
Estate also contains a range of
landforms and terrains, including
extensive karst systems, glacial
landscapes, spectacular coastal
landforms and beaches, and diverse
rock and soil types (its geodiversity).
The TWWHA is located in southwest and central Tasmania and was
first inscribed on the UNESCO
World Heritage List in 1982
(Tasmanian Government and the
Australian Heritage Commission
1981). In 1989 an expanded area
of 1.38 million ha was successfully
nominated (DASETT 1989). It
is the outstanding natural and
aboriginal heritage values present
within the TWWHA that have led to
its listing. Its value resides within, and
Introduction
The Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area
has outstanding natural and aboriginal heritage
values, with extensive glacial and karst
landforms. Coniferous rainforests dominated
by king billy pine and subalpine shrubberies
are uniquely Tasmanian plant communities
found in this globally recognised area.
(Photo: Tom Bennett)
is
protected
by it’s essentially
wilderness nature where
the direct impacts of industrial and
agricultural practices are restricted
to a few locations on its borders.
The TWWHA has extensive glacial
and karst landforms throughout the
region, and is a showcase of natural
on-going ecological and biological
processes, including the presence of
all stages of vegetation succession
between buttongrass moorland and
coniferous rainforest.
Tasmania’s second World Heritage
Area is subantarctic Macquarie Island,
which was listed in 1997 (DEST 1996).
It is a site of outstanding geological
and natural significance on a world
scale. The island is one of only a few
in the Pacific sector of the Southern
Ocean where fauna in the region can
breed. Around 3.5 million seabirds
and 80,000 elephant seals arrive on
Macquarie Island each year to breed
and moult. Fur seals are beginning to
re-establish populations on the island
after nearly being exterminated in the
early 19th century.
Tasmania also has 122,600 hectares
of Marine Protected Areas, across
five marine bioregions, as well as
Commonwealth
Marine Reserves
including 16.2 million
hectares in the Macquarie Island
Marine Reserve.
Tasmania and global
climate history
Planning for Tasmania’s adaptation
to climate change relies on an
understanding of changing global
environmental systems. Therefore,
human-induced climate change
since 1850 must be assessed in
association with ongoing, long-term
natural changes that have shaped
the land surface and associated soils,
controlled relationships between the
land and sea, and determined the
distribution of plants and animals
in both terrestrial and marine
environments.
The current rates of climate change
are unprecedented in the global
climate record. Some of the potential
scenarios predicted for Australia (and
Tasmania) for the next 100 years
mean that environmental changes
could be experienced that are in
the order of those of the transition
from the last Glacial Maximum to the
present, a time period of five million
years (Steffen et al. 2004).
5
Palaeo-environmental scientists often
use the last full glacial-interglacial
cycle (120 000 BP-present) to
develop models of the effects of
natural climate change on Earth
systems. Key studies have focussed
on changes between natural global
warming and cooling cycles at the
peaks and troughs of glacial and
interglacial stages. A large body
of work describing methods of
interpretation (radiometric dating
methods, pollen analysis, macrofossils,
lake, deep-sea and ice-core analysis,
coral, speleothem (cave deposits)
and tree-ring analysis) is available
to assist with interpreting past
environmental change.
Since 1850 there has been a direct
relationship globally between
atmospheric CO2 and temperature,
with increases in CO2 concentration
preceding increases in temperature.
Understanding the consequences
of these changes, and associated
lags between production of CO2,
oceanic and terrestrial sequestration,
will be critical in predicting
environmental change over the next
century.
After 1850, with increasing
concentration of atmospheric
greenhouse gases, global mean
temperature has risen about 0.76
± 0.19°C, including 0.33°C since
1990 (Solomon et al. 2007). CO2
concentrations now exceed the
natural range of the last 2 million
years by 25%, methane by 120%,
and nitrous oxide by 25% (Garnaut
2008). Most importantly, the rate of
increase in both temperature and
greenhouse gases far exceeds any
documented increase under natural
conditions.
Anthropogenic climate change differs
from natural change principally
through a spectacular increase in
the rate of global warming, and
potentially the frequency and
intensity of extreme events. The
predicted increase in temperatures
over the next century is far greater
than any variation over the last few
million years. Therefore, analysis of
lag times in Quaternary ecosystem
response should underpin conceptual
models of future change.
Potential climate
change and its physical
effects in Tasmania
Climate change trends in Tasmania
are consistent with global trends,
with data showing a rising mean
annual temperature but less than
the global and national average rises.
Rising sea levels have also been
observed in Tasmania, consistent with
national and global trends (Church
and White 2006). The effects of
climate change also encompass
altered rainfall patterns, an increase in
droughts, floods, water shortages, and
other extreme weather events, along
with changes in ocean temperature,
currents and chemistry. Several
maps and graphs are provided in
this section to demonstrate recent
trends in temperature and rainfall
(Figures 1.3-1.6)(Grose et al. 2010).
Each graph provides an illustration
of the trend in each variable across
Tasmania since 1900. Below each
graph, maps show the linear trend
between 1961 and 2007.
Overall, warming in terrestrial
Tasmania is potentially moderated
compared to mainland Australia,
primarily because Tasmania is
surrounded by ocean, thus much
of the state’s daily temperature is
moderated by coastal maritime
influences. However, a change in the
mean annual temperature of 1° may
be significant in some places, whereas
in another place a change of 2° may
not have much effect. In addition, the
incidence of extreme temperature
events may be more important than
the change in mean temperature (e.g.
incidence of very hot days).
A number of projections of climate
based on a range of credible
scenarios for global greenhouse
emissions have been undertaken
for Tasmania. Hydro Tasmania
commissioned CSIRO Marine and
Atmospheric Research to undertake
a high resolution modelling study
of Tasmania’s climate in order to
project likely trends in climate to
2040 based on one climate model
(McIntosh et al. 2005).
Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT) is
currently being undertaken by the
Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems
Cooperative Research Centre with
a range of partners (ACE CRC
2007). They are producing finescale projections based on six IPCC
AR4 climate simulation models to
dynamically downscale to a grid
resolution of 0.1° (approx. 10 km)
(Corney et al. 2010). High (SRES
6
A2) and low (SRES B1) emission
scenarios were chosen, and the
models run from 1961 to 2100. The
updated models and projections will
be available in 2010, and will include
information regarding changes in the
various regions of Tasmania.
CFT projections based on a six
model mean indicate that average
temperatures will rise consistently
across Tasmania, particularly in
central Tasmania and at higher
elevations. Under the A2 scenario
for 2100, increased summer and
autumn rainfall is likely in the east,
and increased winter rainfall and
reduced summer rainfall in the west.
Central Tasmania will have reduced
rainfall in all seasons.
Increased CO2 concentrations
Changes in atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases,
land cover and solar radiation all
impact on the energy budget of the
climate system. Evidence from ice
core and dendrochronology research
demonstrates that global emissions
of greenhouse gases, particularly
CO2, have increased dramatically
since pre-industrial times (1750).
These rates exceed the normal
range over the last 650 000 years.
Increasing atmospheric CO2 has also
lead to increasing ocean acidification.
The current concentration of CO2
in the atmosphere is 380 parts per
million, compared with 280 parts
per million in pre-industrial times
(Solomon et al. 2007). The current
global emissions trajectory is tracking
Introduction
at or near the upper limit of the
IPCC suite of projections (Raupach et
al. 2007), increasing the risk that we
will exceed a 2°C rise in global mean
temperature during this century.
The increase in CO2 in the
atmosphere may lead to effects in
soils such as a change in nutrient
cycling and a decrease in the
availability of soil nitrogen (Hovenden
2008), and changed soil microbial
activity and soil water balance
(Leakey et al. 2006). Increased CO2
leads to lowered transpiration rates
in plants as there is a partial close of
leaf stomata, reducing water loss and
a lengthening in the growing season
in water-limited vegetation (Morgan
et al. 2004).
Temperature
Australian temperatures have
increased by 0.9°C since 1950
(McIntosh et al. 2005), with
significant regional variations. This is
slightly higher than the global average
increase of 0.76°C. Minimum
temperatures have been increasing
at a greater rate than maximum
temperatures (Nicholls 2006). There
has been a decrease in the number
of cold days (<15°C) and cold nights
(<5°C) since 1950.
An analysis of historical climate data
identifies that much of Tasmania,
particularly in the north and east,
has experienced a warming in
annual mean temperature since the
Figure 1.3 Annual mean temperature anomaly from the 1961-1990 baseline period
mean for Tasmania (blue line) and 11-year moving average (red line) from the
Australian High Quality temperature dataset. The map below the plot shows the linear
trend in mean temperature between 1961 and 2007, the period after the orange line
on the plot, using 0.05 ° gridded data (AWAP data cited in Grose et al. 2010).
1970s. This is illustrated in Figure 1.3
(Climate Futures for Tasmania Project
2009 and Australian Water Availability
Project (AWAP), Jones et al. 2007).
Analysis of climate data showing the
trend for average daily minimum
and daily maximum temperatures
are illustrated in Figure 1.4 (Climate
Futures for Tasmania Project 2009
and AWAP, Jones et al. 2007). It
demonstrates a rise in minimum
temperature across Tasmania.
Rainfall
Drought in Australia has become
more severe, with increased
temperatures and increased
evaporation (Nicholls 2004). Southeastern Australia in the past decade
has experienced the lowest rainfall
on record, with some areas in the
southern Midlands of Tasmania being
the most drought-affected in the
nation until recent drought-breaking
rains in the winter of 2009.
Since 1970 there have been
strong decreases in rainfall across
Tasmania, typically around 20 to 40
mm per decade. Most of Tasmania
experienced the three driest years
on record in 2006-2008.
The trend of decreasing rainfall in
Tasmania is illustrated in Figure
1.5 (Climate Futures for Tasmania
Project 2009 and AWAP, Jones et al.
2007). The graph also illustrates a
change since 1975 whereby there
is a lower number of intervening
wet years that have rainfall that is
well above-average. More recently,
7
northern and eastern Tasmania
have experienced long-term rainfall
deficits in the last decade, and at
record levels (Australian Bureau of
Meterology 2008).
Figure 1.6 illustrates the recent
trend of decrease in autumn rain,
particularly in the east of Tasmania
(Climate Futures for Tasmania Project
2009 and AWAP, Jones et al. 2007).
Although this trend is not dissimilar
to a smaller trend of decrease in
autumn rain occurring earlier in
the last century, the graph again
illustrates a change in the variability
and character in rainfall, with fewer
very wet years (or ‘recharge’ years)
in autumn rainfall since the 1970s.
Storms
Climate change is expected to
affect disturbance regimes, including
increases in storm intensity (5 to
10%) and/or frequency (including
cyclones/hurricanes, high wind
events, flooding) (Pittock 2003;
Walsh et al. 2004). An increasing
proportion of rain is expected to fall
in more intense events (20 to 30%),
and large storms are expected to
be more severe, with higher winds,
causing more damage, flooding and
coastal inundation (Pittock 2003;
Walsh et al. 2004). There is no clear
evidence about regional changes in
frequency and movement, but it is
possible that cyclones may move
Figure 1.4 Annual mean daily minimum and daily maximum temperature anomalies
from the 1961-1990 baseline period mean for Tasmania (faint lines) and 11-year
moving averages (thick lines) from the Australian High Quality temperature dataset.
The maps below the plot shows the linear trend in daily maximum and minimum
temperatures between 1961 and 2007, the period after the orange line, using
0.05° gridded data (AWAP data cited in Grose et al. 2010).
8
further south (Leslie and Karoly
2007).
Snow and frost
There will be marked reductions in
snow cover and extent (Hennessy
et al. 2003). The total area of snow
cover in Australia is expected to
decrease by 14 to 54% by 2020
and 30 to 93% by 2050. Frost
occurrence is expected to decrease
overall; however temperature is not
the only driver of frosts, changes in
synoptic circulation and decreased
cloud cover could lead to increased
severity of frosts and changes in their
timing in some conditions.
Anecdotal evidence indicates that
there has been a reduction in the
amount and duration of snow in the
Tasmanian mountains in the past few
decades but historical data is not
available for Tasmanian snowfields.
Increased minimum temperatures
during winter and early spring are
projected for Tasmania, resulting in
fewer frost events where this occurs.
There may also be a change in the
incidence of very low temperature
events that can lead to severe frosts.
Some areas, where the minimum
temperature remains sufficiently
low, and where there may be lower
cloud cover due to decreased rainfall,
could undergo more frequent frost
events. These changes will be of
ecological significance. The Climate
Futures for Tasmania Project is
currently undertaking these sorts of
analyses, particularly with regard to
the potential impacts on agriculture.
Introduction
Other Terrestrial Effects
Wind speeds are projected to
increase by a small amount in
Tasmania, particularly in the
north-west during winter, where
projections imply increases in the
monthly mean wind speed of
1.5-2 metres per second, by 2040
(McIntosh et al. 2005). There
is likely to be an increase in
evaporation, caused by the higher
temperatures and increases in wind
speed. This will be particularly
significant in the north-east, which
is predicted to have an annual
evaporation increase of about 12%
by 2040 (McIntosh et al. 2005).
Coupled with changing rainfall
patterns, this will impact on water
availability.
In areas where there is a decrease in
rainfall, there may be an associated
decrease in relative humidity. A
historical trend analysis of climate
data over the period 1973–2007
found that decreased relative
humidity along with increased
storminess, and thus lightning
strikes, extended dry periods and
increased temperature, implies that
an increase in fire weather days is
likely to occur (Williams et al. 2009).
Note that this was a general study
without an indication of regional
differences, and these trends may
not apply to all of Tasmania. The
Climate Futures for Tasmania Project
is modelling the projected incidence
of thunderstorms, lightning and
extreme storm events.
Figure 1.5 Statewide mean annual total rainfall for Tasmania (blue line) and 11year moving average (red line) from the Australian High Quality rainfall dataset. The
map below the plot shows the linear trend in total annual rainfall between 1961
and 2007, the period after the orange line, using 0.05 ° gridded data (AWAP data
cited in Grose et al. 2010).
Figure 1.6 Statewide mean autumn total rainfall for Tasmania (blue line) and 11year moving average (red line) from the Australian High Quality rainfall dataset. The
map below the plot shows the linear trend in total autumn rainfall between 1961
and 2007, the period after the orange line, using 0.05 ° gridded data (AWAP data
cited in Grose et al. 2010).
9
Decreased rainfall leads to
decreased stream flow, and stream
gauge sites in Tasmania show a
15-30% reduction in stream flow
over the last 15 years compared
to historic records (Resource
Management and Conservation
Division 2008). The decrease in
stream flow in turn leads to an
increase in water temperature in
small pools.
The amount of run-off may generally
decrease in areas likely to have lower
rainfall. However the prediction of
more severe rainfall events increases
the likelihood of those extreme
events when the run-off is greatly
increased. This would result in the
water having less benefit for soil
hydration and plant growth, as would
water passing quickly through the
soil profile (Resource Management
and Conservation Division 2008).
The CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable
Yields Project has modelled climate
change projections and the impacts
on runoff to 2030 (CSIRO 2009).
The projected changes vary
according to the future climate
scenarios used ranging from an
increase of 2% to a decrease in 8%
averaged over Tasmania. However
there is a consensus in the data
there will be a reduction in runoff in
the central highlands extending into
the north, parts of the north-east,
the north-west corner of the State,
and King Island, and virtually no areas
show an increase in runoff (Freycinet
is the small exception)(Viney et al.
2009).
The effects of oceans and
ocean currents on terrestrial
weather systems
As described further in the section
regarding the physical marine
environment below, the oceans are
projected to undergo great change,
particularly in water temperature
and changes in ocean currents
(Poloczanska et al. 2009). The ocean
has a major influence on terrestrial
weather and climate, with the upper
levels of the ocean interacting with
the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Thus the effects of these ocean
changes on terrestrial weather
patterns will be complex and
unpredictable, and they have been
factored into CFT modelling (Grose
et al. 2010).
General effects of the ocean on
terrestrial weather patterns include
influences on terrestrial temperature,
wind, rainfall and storms. More
specifically, the warm tropical water
of the East Australian Current (EAC)
moving southward down the east
coast of Australia has the effect
of keeping winter temperatures
especially warm in coastal areas.
Model projections commonly show
a continuing southward extension of
the EAC into the future. The effect
of the ocean on wind systems is
evidenced by sea breezes, which
are driven by the temperature
difference between the water and
the land. Rainfall patterns are
influenced because the warm, moist
air associated with warm currents
increases precipitation. Ocean
currents can also play an important
10
part in the development of storm
systems. This is particularly the case
when cold air from the poles meets
warm air associated with warm
ocean currents. The interaction
of these air masses can produce
frontal systems in a process known
as cyclogenesis (Tapper and Hurry
1993, Burroughs et al. 1999, Collis
and Whitaker 2001).
Changes in the physical
marine environment
Further increases in CO2 will have
dramatic consequences for physical
and chemical stressors of Australian
marine systems. The ocean plays
a significant role in the absorption
of CO2, and heat - more than 80%
of the heat added to the climate
system (Solomon et al. 2007), and
these functions have a significant
impact on the physical properties of
the ocean. Predictions of the effects
on the marine environment are
summarised in Table 1.2.
Substantial warming has occurred
in the three oceans surrounding
Australia, particularly off the
south-east coast and in the Indian
Ocean. Waters off the east coast
of Tasmania have recorded an
increase in temperature of more
than 1°C since the 1940s. Global
climate models predict that the
greatest warming in the Southern
Hemisphere oceans will be in the
Tasman Sea, associated with a
strengthening of the East Australian
Current (EAC), which has increased
in strength by 20% since the late
1970s (Cai 2006).
Introduction
Warming will not only affect surface
waters, but will also penetrate deep
into the ocean, warming waters
down to 500m and beyond (Hobday
et al. 2006). As Table 1.2 shows,
climate change will also substantially
modify other physical variables
important for regulating marine
ecosystems including incident solar
radiation (through cloud formation),
winds and mixed layer depth.
Ocean acidity is also increasing in
Australian marine waters, particularly
in the southern waters surrounding
Tasmania. This will continue to
increase, and this feature is present
in all IPCC climate model simulations
and is driven by a southward
migration of the high westerly wind
belt south of Australia.
Table 1.2 Projected changes in physical and chemical characteristics of Australia’s
marine realm by 2070 from the CSIRO Mk 3.5 model (Hobday et al. 2006 adapted
from Gordon et al. 2002).
Physical climate change indicators
Projected climate change
impacts by 2070
Sea Surface Temperature
Waters around Australia warm
by 1-2°C, with greatest warming
in SE Australia/Tasman Sea due to
strengthening of East Australian Current
Temperature at 500 m depth
Warming of 0.5-1°C
Incident solar radiation
There will generally be more incident
solar radiation on the sea surface in
Australian waters. The increase will be
between 2 and 7 units W m-2
Mixed layer depth
Almost all areas of Australia will have
greater stratification and a shallowing of
the mixed layer by about 1 m, reducing
nutrient inputs from deep waters
Surface winds
An increase of 0-1 ms-1 in surface
winds
Surface currents
A general decline in the strength of
surface currents of between 0-1.2 ms-1
pH
A decline in pH by 0.2 units
11
Sea level rise
Church & White (2006) have shown
that the rate of global mean sea
level rise accelerated during the 20th
century, and there was an increase
in sea level in Tasmania of 10-20 cm
during the last century, including a 14
cm rise on the south-east Tasmanian
coast (Sharples 2006). The global
sea level is predicted to continue to
rise, with a rise of between 18-59
cm by 2100 relative to the 1990
sea level, taking into account only
thermal expansion (Solomon et
al. 2007). Solomon et al. (2007)
warn that further icesheet data
may make sea level rise predictions
even higher, and the upper value
of the predictions should not be
considered an upper bound. Over
20% of the Tasmanian coastline
will be at risk from sea level rise
and more severe storm surges
associated with climate change
(Sharples 2006), which are likely to
result in inundation and erosion of
Tasmania’s coast. For many locations
in Tasmania, a 50 cm sea level rise
would result in the present onein a-hundred-year storm surge
event becoming an annual or more
frequent event by the end of the
21st century (Church et al. 2008).
Interaction of Current Stressors to
Natural Values with Climate Change
Tasmanian natural values are already
impacted by a range of threats and
disturbance regimes such as fire,
weeds and disease. Perhaps the
greatest uncertainties in projecting
the effects of climate change are
associated with the interaction of
climate change with other stressors.
The effects of climate change will
potentially exacerbate current
stressors to natural values, with
synergies, complex interactions
and cumulative interactions among
multiple system components likely
to occur. Changing climate may
undermine, or possibly enhance,
efforts to reduce the effects of
other types of disturbances such
as fire, invasive species, or habitat
fragmentation. The influence of
changing climate therefore cannot
be considered merely as “one more
stressor”, but must be considered in
every natural resource management
activity planned and executed.
The largest single current stressor
interacting with climate change is
the impact of past land clearing and
associated biodiversity loss. Also,
past fishing practices which have
depleted some of Tasmania’s fisheries
will interact with the effects of
climate change and predicted ocean
acidification. The impact of invasive
and pest species (including diseases
and pathogens), increased risk of fire
and land use change are discussed
below.
Fire
Australia is considered one of the
most fire-prone countries on earth
(Bradstock et al. 2002), and with
warming temperatures in many
parts of the continent it is likely that
fires will increase in frequency and
intensity in many regions of Australia
through affects on fire weather and
fuel loads (Cary 2002; Williams et al.
2009).
It is suspected that climate change
influences on bushfires in Tasmania
will have a significant negative
impact on the natural environment.
Tasmania has stores of carbon in
the soils and vegetation in reserve
system and public and private native
forests that collectively amount to
52% of the state’s land area. One
of the most significant contributions
that Tasmania can make to the level
of global atmospheric greenhouse
gases is to ensure that natural
carbon stores are also protected
from catastrophic natural events and
uncontrolled releases of the carbon
they contain (Tasmanian Climate
Change Office 2008).
Bushfire weather predictions
conducted for south-eastern
Australia do not predict significant
change for Hobart and Launceston
by 2050 (Lucas et al. 2007).
However, many climatic factors that
could have significant ecological
impacts have not yet been modelled.
For example drier summers in
western Tasmania (even with an
increase in total annual rainfall)
could lead to an increased number
12
2.
of severe fire weather days. There
are some apparent changes in the
past 20 years in both weather and
fire activity that may be indicative
of longer term trends. For example,
Hobart weather data indicates that
the number of days in spring with
Forest Fire Danger Index values
of >40 has increased 400% in the
decade 1997-2006 compared
to 1987-1996. It is extreme fire
weather days such as these when
the majority of the total annual area
gets burnt.
In the decade of fire seasons 19912000, unpublished Tasmanian Parks
& Wildlife Service records show
14 lightning fires were recorded
on reserved land with a total area
burnt of 11,245 ha. In the seven fire
seasons from 2000-2001 onwards
there were 55 lightning fires and
160,698 ha of reserved land burnt.
Lightning is now the major cause of
wildfire in the TWWHA, whereas
in 1986 it was considered that:
“In Tasmania there is no strong
relationship between thunderstorms
and fire.” (Bowman and Brown
1986).
Some possible trends in bushfires
and natural diversity that may result
from climate change are:
- Greater area burnt annually
by wildfires resulting from an
increased frequency of severe
fire weather days – there is
evidence for this from fire
simulation modelling.
- Greater area burnt of rainforest,
alpine vegetation and organic
Interaction of Current Stressors to
Natural Values with Climate Change
soils if there is a continued trend
of dry lightning and higher Soil
Dryness Index (SDI) values in
western Tasmania in the fire
season months from November
to March.
- Reduced inter-fire intervals in
fire-adapted vegetation such
as dry forest and heathland,
resulting from the increased
total area burnt, and increased
ignition incidence. This would
favour some plant species and
disadvantage others (e.g. shrubs
that are obligate seeders). It
may also lead to changes in
habitat structure affecting fauna
utilisation.
- An increase in the frequency
of drought events resulting in
poor post-fire recruitment of
plant species in fire-adapted
vegetation, thus there is likely
to be an impact even in drier
ecosystems.
- A reduced time period in which
land managers can conduct
fuel reduction burns in safe
conditions.
Fire management for bushfires and
their impact on natural values and
protected areas is a complex issue
and will become increasingly so in
the future, particularly in the face of
competing demands for resources
and conflicting priorities. For
example, increased pressure for fuel
reduction burns may conflict with
community concerns about health
issues related to smoke and other
environmental issues.
Lightning
strike was
the cause
of this wildfire
in the Olga River
valley in western
Tasmania – the original
ignition source is seen in the lower
left of the image. Until the last few
decades fire started by lightning was a
rare phenomenon in western Tasmania.
However, lightning is now the major
cause of wildfire in the Tasmanian
Wilderness World Heritage Area, and
there are many fire-killed vegetation
communities that are now at risk of
increased fire frequencies.
(Photo: Mick Brown).
Invasive species
lead to increased root development
in weed species and in turn to
greater resistance to herbicides,
such as glyphosate (Ziska and Goins
2006). Some invasive species will
be introduced or exotic species that
do not currently occur in an area,
but others will be native species
that are migrating from their current
distribution and are able to exploit
the change in conditions.
Climate change is expected to
worsen the world’s invasive species
problems (Dukes and Mooney
1999). It is predicted to impact
on introduced and indigenous
pathogens, parasites, predators and
competitors. Climate change is
already leading to an intensification
of natural disturbances, with weeds
and invasive pests often favoured
by events such as floods and fires.
Stochastic events, such as extreme
weather events, have the potential
to suddenly increase weed and pest
species extent and impact (US EPA
2008). Increased CO2 levels may
The potential impacts of invasive
species on Australia’s biodiversity
were considered at a national
workshop in 2006 (Low 2008). Many
introduced species have life history
traits that will potentially give them
a competitive advantage under new
disturbance regimes associated with
climate change. Recent modelling
by CSIRO (Scott et al. 2008) of
41 sleeper weeds (those invasive
plants that have naturalised in a
region but not yet increased their
population size exponentially) and
alert weeds (those that are a threat
to the natural environment) suggest
13
Decreased water flows and increased water temperature can foster algal bloom
formation such as this occurrence of filamentous green algae in the Franklin River
in the Tasmanian World Heritage Area. Climate change may lead to a greater
occurrence of these events, reducing the water quality in our rivers.
(Photo: David Spiers).
that the south-east and south-west
regions of Australia will be most at
risk from these species. Climate
change will result in a general shift
southward of species, with tropical
species shifting the greatest distances
(over 1,000 km). Similar outcomes
were identified from modelling for
25 weed species regarded as threats
in Victoria (Steele et al. 2008). A
number of the species identified
in the Victorian study are of direct
relevance to Tasmania. Species with
more a southern distribution may
become less of a threat compared
to northern species as their potential
range may actually shrink (Steele et
al. 2008; Scott et al. 2008).
Given potential shifts in the ranges
of introduced species and the
risk that under a warmer climate
scenario some species previously
considered unsuited to Tasmania
may thrive, changes to invasive
species risk assessment procedures
will be needed. Habitat preference
modelling will need to take into
account changes to the potential
range for serious pests, and this in
turn may result in a range of species
that are currently imported into or
sold within Tasmania being listed as
declared weeds.
Aquatic and semi-aquatic systems
are considered to be at high risk
of potential impact from the
interaction of climate change and
invasive species (Bierwagen et al.
2008; Rahel and Olden 2008).
Increased temperatures and CO2
are predicted to favour aquatic
invasive species, in particular through
increases in biomass levels (US
EPA 2008). River systems are
particularly effective at transporting
weed propagules, and when
combined with naturally high rates
of disturbance, are environments
prone to weed invasion. Coastal
ecosystems have naturally high
disturbance regimes and these
may be exacerbated by climate
change. For example, increased
coastal erosion associated with
storm events and tidal surges could
lead to favourable conditions for
weed invasion. Similarly, the likely
increase in intense rainfall events
and greater periods of little or no
rainfall will create erosion-invasion
opportunities in all ecosystems.
In some alpine and subantarctic
areas of Australia it has already
been observed that increased
temperatures and the associated
reduction in the severity of winter
weather is allowing animal pest
species to inhabit previously
unfavourable habitat (Dunlop
and Brown 2008). Some animal
pest problems that are seemingly
worsened by climate change in
Australia include fox and cat
predation on endangered mountain
pygmy possums, rabbits, foxes and
wild horses invading the Australian
Alps, rabbit damage on Macquarie
Island, and grasshopper plagues in
locations such as the Tasmanian
midlands which previously had a
wetter winter.
extension
of the
native sea urchin
(Centrostphanus rodgersii) from
the mainland to Tasmania has
been associated with increased
southerly penetration of the warm
East Australian Current, making
it favourable habitat and leading
to the formation of species-poor
barrens where species-rich kelp
beds once grew (Johnson et al.
2005). This is an example of a native
species that has inhabited previously
unfavourable habitat.
The native sea urchin (Centrostphanus
rodgersii) is moving southwards as
ocean temperatures warm (Photo:
Scott Ling)
Pest invasion into the marine
environment is also a significant
potential issue. The southern range
14
Interaction of Current Stressors to
Natural Values with Climate Change
Climate change is likely to affect vectors such as
mosquitoes, contributing to the transmission of disease
in wildlife and other species. (Photo: Tim Rudman)
Wildlife diseases and
pathogens
Infectious agents and diseases are
part of the ecosystem and their
introduction and emergence have
contributed to ecosystem stability
and resilience for millions of years
via the processes of natural selection.
Disease incidence and prevalence
relate to dynamic associations
among the host, the agent of disease,
and the environment. Changes
or disturbance in any or all of
these factors can alter ecosystem
processes and allow the expression
or intrusion of significant wildlife
diseases (Gillin et al. 2002).
Factors contributing to the current
increased rate of disease emergence
in the Tasmanian context include
climate change, habitat destruction
and fragmentation, introduced
animals, urbanisation, change in
agricultural practices including
widespread chemical usage, water
distribution / availability and
international migration / trade (Rose
2008).
Future potential impacts of climate
change on wildlife disease expression
include increases in:
- The distribution and biological
behaviour of many arthropod
vectors of disease such as
mosquitoes and ticks (Daszak
et al. 2000), increasing disease
transmission.
- Temperature that will favour
the survival of some pathogens,
increasing rates of transmission,
resulting in more disease
outbreaks. Many
diseases are expected
to become more
lethal or spread
more readily as
the earth warms
(Epstein 2001).
- Temperatures
that will result
in physiological
changes within host
species, altering their
susceptibility / immunity
to disease.
- Temperatures that will
expand the range and increase
the reproductive potential of
rodents, increasing rodentborne infectious diseases such
as Leptospirosis and Hantavirus
(McCarthy et al. 2001).
Thirteen new wildlife diseases have
emerged in Australia since the mid1990’s (Rose 2008), representing an
unprecedented rate and reflecting
a global trend. In the past 12
years Tasmania has experienced an
increase in the rate of emergence
of several significant wildlife diseases
such as Devil Facial Tumour Disease
(DFTD) and Chytridiomycosis
that threaten the Tasmanian devil
and native frogs respectively. There
has been significant research
internationally that links the
occurrence of Chytridiomycosis to
climate change (Pounds et al. 2006).
In addition there has been a recent
re-emergence of Psittacine Circoviral
(Beak and Feather) Disease affecting
Orange-bellied parrots.
15
The
plant
pathogen of potentially most
concern under climate change
scenarios in Tasmania is the rootrot soil pathogen Phytophthora
cinnamomi. It is currently limited in
Tasmania to localities where soils
warm sufficiently (presently below
about 700m elevation) or hold
enough moisture for at least part
of the year (> 600 mm p.a.) for
growth and reproduction to occur
(Department of Environment and
Heritage 2006). Climate change is
likely to have a mixed effect on the
extent of Phytophthora cinnamomi,
depending on other factors such
as soil type and ecophysiologic
responses of the plant to increased
CO2. The complex host, pathogen
and soil microflora interactions may
change with changing climate to
either exacerbate or reduce disease
incidence.
Changes in rainfall are likely to
decrease the activity of P. cinnamomi
in the areas of the state where
rainfall may fall below about 600
mm p.a. Higher temperatures
may cause disease expression at
higher altitudes than at present,
particularly in the east of the
state, and also in the far southwest from around 650m to over
800m elevation, the current lower
boundary for alpine vegetation.
Forest types currently too cool
for disease development are also
likely to experience P. cinnamomi
infestation.
Land use change
Clearance and conversion of native
vegetation to other land uses
continues to be the largest single
pressure on biodiversity values.
The onset of climate change and
the need for human adaptation
responses will see the continuation
of land use change in areas of
high productivity. Similarly, the
potential for the growth of the
biofuel sector has been identified
(Australian Government 2009).
There is also likely to be an increase
in commercial forest plantings as
carbon sinks. Carbon plantings,
particularly when undertaken as a
component of strategic revegetation
to establish landscape connectivity
and using an appropriate mix of
species, could be beneficial for
natural systems, rather than a
stressor.
Disease caused
by the root-rot soil
pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi
in wet scrub in western Tasmania.
Currently P. cinnamomi is restricted to
open vegetation communities where
soils are sufficiently warmed by the sun
for it to survive. The cool soils under
rainforest and wet forest communities
provide refugia for species like white
waratah (Agastachys odorata) that are
eliminated on the adjacent buttongrass
plains by disease. Climate changeinduced soil warming potentially place
these refugia at risk and expose
numerous other forest species to threat
from this insidious plant pathogen.
(Photo: Tim Rudman).
16
Interaction of Current Stressors to
Natural Values with Climate Change
3.
Tasmania contains a wide variety
of rock types, landforms and
soils (its geodiversity). These
systems underpin a diverse
suite of ecosystems within a mix
of conservation reserves and
productive landscapes. Climate
change will affect geomorphic
processes, landforms and
soil systems directly, and as a
consequence of people’s adaptation
to the changing environment.
Key geomorphic systems most likely
to be affected by climate change are
fluvial (rivers, lakes and wetlands)
and coastal/estuarine systems
(particularly soft, sandy coasts). The
potential impact of climate change
on these systems and key values
is discussed in more detail in
Chapter 4 and Chapter
6 respectively.
The effects of
important
Potential Impact on
Tasmania’s Geodiversity and
Land Resource Value
environmental drivers on earth
surface processes, including
temperature, rainfall, evapotranspiration and storminess, will
vary throughout the State. Climate
change is considered most likely to
affect those aspects of geodiversity
associated with active, or recently
active, land and soil-forming
processes. Many of these contain a
sedimentary record of geomorphic
response to earlier climatic change
that could be useful in refinement of
local prediction of what is to come.
Sea level rise will critically affect the
coastal fringe and estuaries. Alpine
geomorphic processes of solifluction,
patterned ground, alpine lunettes,
17
nivation (collective name for the
different processes that occur under
a snow patch) are likely to become
further limited in Tasmania. Other
less extensive systems (including
karst, aeolian and active hillslope
processes) will also be affected,
with locally important effects on
landforms and geoconservation
values.
Caves and cave fauna
Caves are very sensitive to changes in
temperatures, rainfall and hydrology.
A range of cave fauna including cave
crickets and cave spiders, and glow
worms, may be vulnerable to potential
impacts. (Photos: Rolan Eberhard).
Soils form the critical link between
landforms and vegetation, and
control production of surface
runoff. A wide range of soils reflects
Tasmania’s high geodiversity and
will be variably affected by climate
change, according to their location
and inherent resilience.
The future distribution of vegetation
communities will also be controlled
by the response of geomorphic and
soil processes to climate change.
Conversely, direct effects of climate
change on vegetation will alter
rates of erosion and deposition in
geomorphic systems.
Geoconservation values, including
sensitive, rare or outstanding examples
of landforms and soils, will also be
variably threatened. Surficial deposits
and other sediments which contain
long-term environmental records of
past climate change (e.g. peatlands,
wetlands, lunettes, river terraces, cave
and macrofossil deposits) will require
special management.
Geomorphic systems in Tasmania are
likely to respond to climate change
in two ways:
1. incremental change - gradually
increasing (or decreasing) rates
of erosion and sedimentation,
for example the gradual erosion
of soft coasts in response to sea
level rise; and/or
2. sudden change upon crossing of
‘geomorphic thresholds’ such as
the erosive response of rivers to
catastrophic loss of vegetation
and soil in catchments (e.g.
through wildfire)
Both of these response patterns
are subject to varying lag times
before the effects of climate change
become apparent. Whilst the erosion
of soft coasts is likely to be almost
instantaneous following sea level rise,
the geomorphic effects of reduced
runoff in river systems is likely to be
buffered more strongly, particularly
where long-lived, resilient vegetation
stabilises stream banks.
Knowledge of key earth surface
processes currently active in
Tasmania allows us to predict
which systems are likely to be
subject to incremental rather than
critical, threshold-based change, and
which are likely to respond with
minimal lag times. This will allow the
estimation of resilience of various
land systems to climate change, and
the development of appropriate
strategies for adaptation.
Key values
Tasmania contains considerable
climate, landscape and geological
diversity. This diversity is reflected
in a wide range of soils: shallow
organosols, robust basaltic soils,
wind-blown sands, and easily
degraded sodic duplex soils. Each
soil type is a reflection of its parent
material, position in the landscape
and age.
As with other elements of
geodiversity, Tasmania is fortunate
in having a well preserved suite of
soils remaining in essentially natural
condition, particularly in the centre,
west and north-east. These play
18
an important role in regulating
catchment runoff and supporting
natural ecosystems within
conservation reserves. Extensive
peatlands in central and western
Tasmania are one of Tasmania’s
largest terrestrial carbon stores.
In other areas certain more fertile
soil types have been targeted for
agricultural development – the deep
ferrosols (including deep basalt
soils) of the north and north-west
form the basis of highly productive
intensive vegetable production.
Where vegetation clearance was
relatively easy, less robust soils (e.g.
dermosols, sodosols and tenosols)
have supported extensive grazing
in the Midlands and south-east.
These are now being progressively
more heavily utilised under irrigated
agriculture. Examples of these soil
types surviving under a natural
vegetation cover are now relatively
scarce.
Tasmania has a significantly greater
proportion of its land surface
managed primarily for nature
conservation than most other
jurisdictions. Natural soils in these
areas are intrinsically valuable,
providing a critical link between
natural physical and biological
systems.
Natural soils provide valuable
ecosystem services, controlling
vegetation health, and moderating
infiltration and runoff. Tasmania’s
domestic, agricultural and
industrial water catchments
(including extensive hydro-electric
Potential Impact on Tasmania’s
Geodiversity and Land Resource Values
developments) critically rely on
an adequate quantity and quality
of runoff, generally from reserved
lands. Soils are important controls
on runoff, particularly alpine and
buttongrass moorlands, where
extensive organosols moderate high
and often intense rainfall.
Additionally, natural soils provide
benchmarks for condition
assessment in productive landscapes.
These will become increasingly
important as we seek to separate
the effects of climate change from
those of productive land uses on soil
condition.
Impacts on key drivers
Management of natural soils will
become increasingly important
under climate change. Tasmania’s
natural soils contain a large (but as
yet unquantified) amount of organic
carbon, sequestered over much
of the Quaternary. Whilst parts of
upland Tasmania were swept clean
of soil in Quaternary glacial periods,
unglaciated areas have maintained
varying covers of natural vegetation,
in some places building significant
carbon stores. Soil carbon storage is
most concentrated under relatively
stable ecosystems, such as old forests
and peatlands. These systems are
common in western Tasmania, at
varying elevations, due to the cool,
wet and relatively reliable climate.
Buttongrass moorlands (found
generally in the west and southwest) are important terrestrial
carbon stores. They are also critical
in maintaining the runoff generating
capacity of many catchments
important for hydro-electricity
generation. They are unusual soil
systems, in that whilst decayed
buttongrass vegetation has provided
the main carbon source for these
extensive organosols, they are also
highly flammable. It is not unusual
for the soils themselves to burn,
or rapidly oxidise, during bushfires.
Preliminary research suggests that
organosols are currently at the
climatic extent of their range, and
that processes of deposition and
oxidation of organic materials are
delicately balanced (Whinam and
Hope 2005).
It is difficult to predict the potential
effects of climate change on soil
moisture and surface runoff.
However, the seasonality of changes
will play an important role in
determining the vulnerability of
soils to climate change. The CSIRO
Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project
has modelled climate change
projections and the impacts on
runoff to 2030 (CSIRO 2009).
The data indicate that western
Tasmania will have decreased runoff
as will much of the north-east, with
increases along parts of the east
coast and in parts of inland eastern
Tasmania. Indirect impacts on soils
are also possible. For example, the
frequency and intensity of bushfires
and peat fires has increased in
recent years, and have the potential
to increase further, as average and
extreme temperatures rise.
19
Management of fire will be critical
in buttongrass moorland areas, for
both maintaining carbon stores
and runoff characteristics. Erosion,
sediment transport and deposition
in key western Tasmanian rivers and
estuaries is primarily controlled by
the health of organosols in these
catchments.
Sphagnum peatlands cover an
extensive area of the Central
Highlands, and also play an
important role in moderating runoff
characteristics. Many of the state’s
eastern hydro-electric developments
rely on water from these catchments,
as will proposed storages for
Midlands irrigation projects.
As with similar areas in the NSW
Snowy Mountains, and Victoria’s
Bogong High Plains, management
of peatlands will play a critical role
in both nature conservation and
water production. These flammable
soils will also come under increasing
risk from fire as climate change
progresses, as evidenced by the 2003
and 2006 bushfires in Kosciuszko
and Namadgi National Parks (Hope
et al. 2005).
Lowland peatlands are found in
many coastal locations, and are also
being increasingly threatened by
fire. In 2007 a particularly extensive
fire in Lavinia State Reserve (King
Island) burnt up to 2 metres of peat
from the margins of an extensive
coast paperbark swamp, following
dessication of the soil. It is likely that
similar events will increase under
climate change scenarios.
Peat destruction from wildfire on King Island. Lavinia State
Reserve had two wildfires within six years, destroying peat
that was metres thick and thousands of years old. This
area was originally under Melaleuca ericifolia scrub.
(Photo: Richard Schahinger).
Soil organic
carbon
Peat
fires
The frequency and intensity of
wildfires is likely to increase in the
wet sclerophyll forests of eastern
and northern Tasmania. Many
of these are mixed forests with
rainforest understorey, and in some
cases they have not burned for
centuries. Soil carbon stored under
these forests is also at risk from fire.
Regeneration of these forest types
following fire has also been linked to
significant decreases in surface runoff
and streamflow. This will affect fluvial
processes, and reduce the availability
of water for human use.
An extensive assessment of soil
condition in Tasmania has recently
been completed for Tasmania (Kidd
et al. 2009). This work established
benchmark values for all major soil
classifications under a range of land
uses. Climate change effects that
impact on soil carbon or microbial
levels are of potential economic
concern.
Organic carbon
is the link between
the chemical, physical and
biological properties of soil, varying
with soil type and land use.
Drought conditions contribute to
a decline in soil organic carbon
through loss of groundcover and/
or loss of perenniality. Bare ground
is susceptible to erosion by wind or
water.
There is a direct relationship
between soil carbon and soil
structure. Land use practices or
climate-induced responses that
negatively impact on soil carbon
may negatively impact on soil
structure. These include loss of
groundcover, solarisation of the soil
(due to loss of groundcover) with
damage to the soil ecosystem, and
reduced infiltration of water due
to an increase in water repellency
(hydrophobicity).
20
Soil carbon and soil biodiversity are
inextricably linked. The carbon cycle
is driven by biological processes and
biological processes are driven by soil
carbon. Increased drying caused by
climate change may interrupt these
cycles. If these cycles are interrupted
there is a risk of loss of groundcover
caused by over-grazing or natural
declines in plant viability. Loss of
groundcover exposes the soil to erosion
by wind and water. Soil carbon is
quickly lost to erosion by wind as it
is amongst the lighter soil fractions
and is easily blown away. Erosion
by water strips topsoil where the
greatest concentration of soil carbon is
found. Maintenance of groundcover is
therefore critical to protection of
our soil resources. Having
a thick soil layer
stuck to roots (the
rhizosphere) is
an indicator
of a healthy
soil biology.
(Photo:
Declan
McDonald).
Salinity
Given the
importance of
local groundwater
flow systems to salinity
expression in Tasmania, strategies to
address groundwater levels are most
likely to positively address this risk.
Such strategies include large-scale
revegetation. However, for largescale revegetation to be effective
it must be planned and sited very
Potential Impact on Tasmania’s
Geodiversity and Land Resource Values
Native pastures in the Midlands during the recent drought.
Extreme rainfall events, exacerbated by drought, can lead
to increased runoff, soil erosion and mudslides. These may
become more frequent in the future.
(Photo: Louise Gilfedder).
carefully
if it is not
to exacerbate
reductions in water yield and
consequent knock-on environmental
impacts (Campbell 2008).
Climate change impacts on soil
salinity will be direct and indirect, and
will relate to:
- Windblown salts of oceanic
origin
- Salt deposits of geological origins
- Irrigation
- Land clearing
- Lower rainfall
- Natural saline discharge patterns
Erosion and sedimentation
Soil formation rates are highly
variable but are in the order of <0.5
Mg/Ha/yr from bedrock such as
basalt (Edwards 1993).
Climate change impacts on soil
erosion will be direct and indirect,
and will relate to:
- Changes in land use
- Increased rainfall intensity
- Loss of groundcover due to
drought
- Increased windstorm intensity
- Exposure of sodic soils
- Loss of riparian vegetation
Continued or sustained reduction
in annual rainfall, particularly in the
southern part of the state will have
two main impacts on soil erosion.
Loss of groundcover caused by
drought or overgrazing may bare the
soil and increase the risk of erosion
by wind or water. Soil lost to wind
erosion contains a
high proportion of
organic carbon. This is due
to the higher levels of soil carbon in
the upper soil layers and its relative
lightness. Soil lost to water erosion
is rapidly transported into waterways
where it contributes to turbidity and
sedimentation of waterways. Loss of
groundcover on sodic soils renders
them vulnerable to dispersion and
suspension in water bodies.
Acid sulphate soils
Issues relating to the occurrence
and management of acid sulphate
soils are currently being investigated
in Tasmania. This work is showing
that acid sulphate soils (ASS) are
more widely spread than previously
anticipated.
Climate change impacts on acid
sulphate soils will be direct and
indirect and will relate to:
- Acid sediments of geological
origins
- Developments in coastal
locations
- Increased drainage of agricultural
land, in particular dairying in the
north and north-west of the
state
- Falling groundwater levels
Increased development pressures
on the coastal zone may result in
an expansion of urban footprints
into areas with acid sulphate soils.
Exposed or excavated ASS may
leach strong acids into waterways
with toxic impacts on aquatic life and
riparian vegetation.
21
In parts of South Australia, dropping
groundwater levels are exposing ASS
to oxidation with the consequent
release of sulfuric acid into the
environment. The potential for
this exists wherever ASS exist in
Tasmania. Areas of particular risk
include many Ramsar wetlands.
Water extractions from rivers and
creeks that supply coastal wetlands
will need careful management.
Drying landscapes due to climate
change may increase the drying of
lakes and wetlands, which could cause
the exposure of previously waterlogged
and harmless acid sulfate soils.
Oxidation of acid
sulfate soils can
lead to the
formation
and
release
of
sulfuric
acid.
The
release
of
significant
quantities of
acid can rapidly lower
pH values of soil and drainage water.
If left untreated this can result in a
range of environmental, engineering,
infrastructure and health related
impacts. Increased monitoring of
wetlands likely to contain acid sulfate
soils is required in drying landscapes.
(photo: Declan McDonald).
4.
Potential Impact of
Climate Change on Tasmania’s
Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems
The Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC AR4)
identified that inland aquatic
freshwater ecosystems are highly
vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change, largely through
changes in hydrology from changed
precipitation (Kundzewicz et al.
2007). Coastal wetlands have been
identified as particularly vulnerable
to the effects of sea level rise,
and this in turn impacts on their
carbon storage capacity. IPCC AR4
also identified that as a result of
reduced precipitation and increased
evaporation, water security problems
in southern and eastern Australia are
projected to intensify by 2030.
Tasmania’s freshwater environments
are underpinned by a diversity of
biophysical processes, functions
and values. Geological structures,
geomorphic processes and
controls, hydrological processes,
riparian and aquatic vegetation,
fish and macroinvertebrates
are some of the more readily
identifiable components that make
up freshwater ecosystems. These
can be found in both lentic (lake,
pond and swamp) environments
and lotic (stream, river and spring)
environments.
In many parts of Tasmania, land use
activities have already impacted upon
these environments significantly.
Flow regimes have been changed,
vegetation cleared, river channels
altered, wetlands converted, water
quality reduced and habitat lost. The
interaction between these human
impacts and the effects of climate
change may be most strongly felt in
lotic systems, producing threshold
responses that each stress alone
would not produce (CCSP 2009).
There are extensive areas within
the reserve system and headwater
areas that still contain largely intact
and representative examples of
Tasmania’s freshwater environments.
Tasmania’s freshwater biophysical
values have been compiled into
the Conservation of Freshwater
Ecosystem Values (CFEV) database,
and this provides a reference
point from which priority-based
management and conservation
decisions on freshwater ecosystems
can be developed.
In Tasmania warmer temperatures,
increased wind and changing rainfall
patterns are projected to impact
on water availability at a time when
much of Tasmania has already
experienced an extended period of
drought (Tasmanian Climate Change
Office 2008). Significant variations in
the pattern and location of rainfall
over time will have a major impact
on sensitive ecosystems, particularly
freshwater ecosystems.
Key values
Tasmania’s freshwater ecosystems
contain an extensive network
of rivers, streams and wetland
environments, which also include
lakes, swamps and tarns. Many
of these ecosystems have
internationally and nationally
significant scientific and biological
values, with 10 Ramsar and 86
wetlands listed on the national
Directory of Important Wetlands
of Australia (DIWA). A number
of the Ramsar wetlands are part
of the estuarine component of
rivers, and several DIWA wetlands
occur within rivers (Blackhall et al.
1996) and are therefore affected by
the health of those river systems.
22
Streams and rivers (lotic
environments)
Rivers are distinct environments
that connect parts of the landscape
and perform a range of different
biophysical functions. In highly altered
landscapes, such as agricultural
regions, rivers and associated
riparian corridors may be the only
remaining areas providing some
form of ecological function. There
are approximately 157,000 km of
rivers in Tasmania of which 21% are
considered to have a high to very
high Integrated Conservation Value
(DPIW 2008a). Fifty-two percent of
the total length of Tasmanian rivers
occurs in reserves within the state.
The remaining stream length occurs
in other public land (18%) and other
private land (30%). Whilst there is
a relatively high proportion of river
length in reserves, it should be noted
that a number of the reserved areas
cover only part of a river’s length.
The highly sinuous lowland streams
south of Macquarie Harbour and
meandering and glacially controlled
rivers on the Central Plateau and
Midlands broadwater sequences
represent important and rare
examples of Tasmania’s fluvial
Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems
systems. Entire, pristine catchments
(such as the New and Davey Rivers)
are very rare in south-eastern
Australia. Their geomorphological
and biological importance
contributes to the international
significance of the Tasmanian
Wilderness World Heritage Area.
Many fluvial landforms preserve
evidence of catchment responses to
past, natural climatic variations over
the last 2 million years. Meander
cutoffs and wetlands preserve
long pollen records, providing
palaeobotanical information. Terrace
flights, alluvial fans, and sediments
stored in subsurface karstic stream
systems may be studied to interpret
relationships between climate and
Earth surface processes throughout
the Quaternary. Examples include
correlation of dated, relict meander
scrolls preserved on terraces, and
the calibre of relict terrace and fan
sediments with past streamflow
and sediment dynamics. Knowledge
of the magnitude and frequency
of these responses may be used
to underpin predictions of future
catchment responses under climate
change scenarios.
Wetlands and lakes (lentic
environments)
Tasmania is characterised by high
precipitation that makes it rich
in freshwater environments, with
thousands of lakes and tarns in the
mountainous west, and deflation
basins in the Midlands and the east
associated with past glaciations and
the intervening periods of aridity
(Kirkpatrick and Tyler 1988).
Wetlands provide important
biophysical functions and habitat
within Tasmania’s landscape. They
also provide an indication of past
climatic conditions, such as the
presence of aeolian features that
formed in colder, drier climates.
As with rivers they occur across a
wide range of environments and
their condition reflects the different
land uses and pressures. The CFEV
database lists 20,597 wetlands that
cover an area of 206,800 ha (based
on LIST and TASVEG data sources)
in Tasmania (DPIW 2008a). Whilst
this number includes anthropogenic
wetlands and minor depressions, it
does reflect the relative importance
wetlands play across Tasmanian
landscapes.
Almost 60% of the wetlands
identified in CFEV are regarded as
having a high to very high Integrated
Conservation Value which infers
they may contain rare biological
or physical characteristics, special
values or both. Sixty percent of
the wetlands occur in reserves. The
remaining wetlands occur on other
private land (26%) and other public
land (14%). Tasmania’s wetlands
contain a high proportion of
endemic species (Bowling et al. 1993;
Kirkpatrick and Tyler 1988), as well
as a disproportionate percentage of
Tasmania’s flowering plant species
(Kirkpatrick and Harris 1999).
Waterbodies in Tasmania, which
include lakes and tarns, cover
137,000 ha representing 1,346
23
waterbodies (DPIW 2008a). The
waterbodies include Lake St. Clair,
the deepest lake in Australia, and
Australia’s largest natural permanent
waterbody, Great Lake. Fifty-five
percent of the area of waterbodies
occurs in reserves. The remaining
area of waterbodies occurs on other
public land (44%) and other private
land (1%). Freshwater environments
(rivers, wetlands, lakes, karst) provide
habitat for at least 123 threatened
flora species and 103 threatened
fauna species (DPIW 2008b). This
includes 9 flora species and 12 fauna
species listed on the EPBC Act.
The highland aquatic habitats of
western Tasmania, including an
array of lakes, tarns, streams and
rivers, represent a highly diverse
assemblage of limnological and
biological environments with few
analogues elsewhere in Australia
(Fulton et al. 1993; Ponder et
al. 1993). A high proportion of
Tasmania’s wetlands occur on the
Central Plateau, and significant parts
of that region can be regarded as
being in near pristine condition.
Conservation priorities for the
Central Highlands include a number
of unique freshwater values such as
threatened Galaxias and Paragalaxias
species and Great Lake aquatic
fauna. The Eastern half of the Plateau
has some of the most distinct
wetland communities in Tasmania
(Kirkpatrick and Harwood 1983),
and high levels of endemism (flora
and invertebrates, including aquatic
species). The crustacean, insect and
fish communities of Great Lake
The western highlands of Tasmania contain an array of lakes,
tarns, streams and rivers that represent a highly diverse
and unique assemblage of limnological and biological
environments . These alpine tarns and lakes are
highly vulnerable to decreased rainfall and increased
temperatures. (Photo: Tom Bennett).
in areas
that
have
been
protected.
contain
a substantial
endemic and threatened element
(Australian Natural Resources Atlas
http://www.anra.gov.au).
North-west Tasmania has extensive
swamp forests, and also nationally
significant swamps that have
developed on karst landscape
drainage features, such as sinkholes
or dolines. These subterranean
wetlands support a diverse fauna
that is often distinct from that of
surface waters. Twelve threatened
fauna species are recorded for karst
environments (DPIW 2008b). Poljes
are large karstic depressions up to
several kilometres across, and the
poljes at Mole Creek and Dismal
Swamp are the best developed in
Australia.
Tasmania’s freshwater ecosystems
are considered to be one of the
most vulnerable to climate change,
with some of the potential changes
shown in Table 4.1. They have played
a central role in the development of
the island from the time of European
arrival and consequently have
experienced significant change, even
Relationships
between
rainfall and
evapo-transpiration
vary considerably
across the state. Combined
with vegetation, these factors
control patterns of erosion
and sediment flux throughout
catchments, and the corresponding
form of river channels (Jerie et al.
2003). For many parts of Tasmania,
the potential impacts of climate
change on freshwater ecosystems
need to be considered in the
context of the many pressures they
currently experience.
In temperate Tasmania, the effects of
climate change on rainfall patterns
and evapo-transpiration and the
flow on effect for fire and vegetation
communities have the potential
to significantly alter the form and
processes of fluvial systems (Brierley
and Fryirs 2005). Effects will be
most strongly observed in rates
of hillslope erosion, channel bed
and bank erosion (and potentially
contraction), and deposition rates
on floodplains and in estuaries.
Key fluvial system drivers will vary
considerably across Tasmania in
response to climate change, because
of the diverse nature of fluvial
landscapes and spatial differences in
average and instantaneous runoff.
The key issues for the ecological
24
health of freshwater systems under
a changing climate scenario will be
water quantity and temperature
change. Water quantity influences
a range of potential issues: water
quality, water temperature,
maintenance of habitat, channelforming and maintenance processes,
ecological disturbance processes
and sustaining aquatic and riparian
flora and fauna. Rainfall elasticity
is about 2-3.5, that is, a 10%
reduction in rainfall equates to a
20-30% decrease in flows (Chiew
2007 and 2009). Stream gauge
sites in Tasmania show a 15-30%
reduction in stream flow over the
last 15 years compared to historic
records. Changes in seasonal
patterns will also alter the hydrologic
characteristics of aquatic systems.
Whilst there may be an overall
decline in annual streamflows under
drier climate scenarios, a more
seasonal pattern may lead to larger
and more damaging flows in certain
times of the year.
Climate change impacts on
inland aquatic ecosystems will
range from the direct effects
of the rise in temperature and
CO2 concentration to indirect
effects through alterations in
hydrology resulting from changes in
precipitation (Cubasch et al. 2001;
Lemke et al. 2007; Meehl et al.
2007). Changes in physical climate
and hydrology will also be strongly
coupled with terrestrial ecosystems,
which both respond to and
modulate hydro-climatic fluxes and
states (Lettenmaier et al. 2008).
Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems
The potential effects resulting from
decreased water flows include
a decline in water quality and
elevated water temperature, and
the development of small, warm,
unconnected pools of water. The
increased water temperature in turn
could foster algal bloom formation.
There may also be an increase in
salinity due to lack of freshwater
inflow and higher evaporation rates,
and an increased risk of acid sulphate
soils exposed through the drying of
lakes and wetlands.
Table 4.1 Biophysical processes in freshwater ecosystems that are likely to be impacted by climate change.
Physical climate
change indicator
Potential impact
Increased water temperatures, reductions in dissolved oxygen levels
Increased growth in freshwater algae
Areas of high water temperature may become a barrier to migration for some aquatic species.
Higher temperatures
Conditions favour aquatic weeds and some introduced fauna. Nuisance plant growth (native/
non-native) will be encouraged.
Loss of plant and animal species with narrow temperature ranges (stenothermic); Domination
by species with broad temperature ranges (eurythermic)
Increased incidence of algal blooms associated with increased water temperatures
Increased temperature combined with reduced rainfall will affect freshwater ecosystems by
impacting on habitat for freshwater crayfish and native fish species
Changes in hydrology, species composition and ecological productivity
Reduced s tream flow, reduced capacity to transport sediment and other channel material.
A reduction in stream capacity to transport sediment, leading to bed aggradation and bank
erosion.
Insufficient flows to support particular species, including preventing aquatic species from
migrating to more suitable habitat.
Changes in
precipitation
Decreased summer rain and increased temperatures could change some streams from
permanent to ephemeral or increase the ephemerality of ephemeral streams.
Increased summer rains will impact on sedimentation rates and affect freshwater habitat quality
Seasonal patterns of wetland species disrupted
Reductions in runoff
Increased exposure to predators when aquatic organisms are confined to pools.
Increased evaporation, leading to drying out of wetlands, increased salinity, and exposure of acid
sulphate soils
Intense, seasonal rainfall events that lead to channel and stream bank erosion and flushing of
organic material and woody debris from the stream.
Increased CO2
Increased Net Primary Productivity, which may lead to negative impacts such as increased algal
blooms
Sea level rise
Coastal wetlands are susceptible to inundation or increased salinity through saltwater intrusion
Interactive effects
Land use change and water consumption patterns will intensify climate change impacts on
wetlands and rivers.
25
Changes in precipitation and temperature will impact on the hydrology,
species composition and ecological productivity of Tasmania’s rivers,
particularly in periods of low flow. Reduced stream flow may lead to a
reduced capacity to transport sediment and other channel material, and
extreme rainfall events may lead to channel and stream bank erosion.
(Photo: Louise Gilfedder).
Impacts on key drivers
Streams and rivers (lotic
environments)
Reductions in streamflow will be
largely influenced by the two key
drivers - changes in rainfall patterns
and the need to develop water
resources as a consequence of
reductions in rainfall. The impacts of
these two drivers can be interrelated
and complex. Stream regulation
and abstractions may compound
the impacts of climate change by
further limiting the amount of flows
available for the environment. Dams
and other physical barriers may limit
the capacity of aquatic species to
migrate to more suitable habitats
if, for example, water temperatures
exceed tolerance levels.
There is uncertainty about future
rainfall patterns at a national scale
(Steffen et al. 2009) and projections
suggest rainfall patterns across
Tasmania will vary on a regional
basis. Increased rainfall has been
projected for the west and central
areas, and a reduction in the
north-east by 2040 (McIntosh et
al. 2005). The Climate Futures for
Tasmania Project is currently deriving
new climate projections, including
regional projections, due to be
released in 2010. Reductions in
rainfall and runoff have the potential
to reduce the amount of suitable
habitat available for aquatic species
as streamflows decline and parts of
river systems are either reduced to
pools or dry up.
Increased water temperature is a
problem which will be compounded
by increasing temperature due
to climate change, and water
temperatures may rise to lethal
levels for a number of organisms.
Pools are susceptible to warm water
temperatures, which in turn leads to
a drop in dissolved oxygen. Whilst
a number of Tasmania’s native fish
have relatively wide temperature
tolerances, other species, such as the
giant freshwater crayfish require a
stable thermal regime of relatively
low water temperature (Threatened
Species Section 2006).
The impact of sediments, nutrients
and pollutants would be enhanced
in these shallow water situations,
especially where rivers are reduced
to a series of disconnected pools.
This, combined with the threat of
elevated temperatures, may result
in highly stressed habitat conditions
favouring species with very wide
tolerances and disadvantaging more
sensitive species.
A prolonged or regular reduction
in stream flows would lead to
the stream channel becoming
disconnected from its floodplain.
Locally this will affect riparian
vegetation as groundwater levels
decline, causing riparian vegetation
to either shift or in worst case
scenarios to be lost. This in turn
will remove habitat, sources of
organic material and lead to
streambank erosion. Overbank
flows are important for replenishing
the floodplain and wetlands with
water and organic material, and the
26
associated
disturbance
can be an important
germination trigger.
Rainfall patterns are likely to become
more seasonal, and when it does
rain, rainfall is likely to be more
intense (CSIRO 2007; Steffen et
al. 2009). A change in the flood
regime, with a reduction in annual
floods, but an increase in frequency
of larger floods will alter disturbance
regimes, affecting important
germination triggers. More frequent,
larger floods will impact on aquatic
habitats by scouring the streambed,
displacing woody debris, and flushing
organic matter downstream (Poff et
al. 2002). Sediments derived from
streambank erosion and hillslopes
can cover streambeds, removing
habitat and smothering the eggs
of a number of aquatic organisms
(Prosser et al. 1999). An increase
in the frequency of more intense
floods will make it very difficult for
habitat to recover and there may be
local extinctions of aquatic species.
It is important to note that climate
change may have other less obvious
impacts that will contribute to higher
rates of erosion, including changes
to riparian plant canopies, litter
cover, soil moisture (and therefore
infiltration and runoff ratios), soil
erodibility due to decreases in
organic matter and changes in land
use (Kundzewicz et al. 2007).
Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Tasmania’s Freshwater and Fluvial Ecosystems
Tasmania has a rich freshwater crayfish fauna
with approximately 37 species in 4 genera.
The burrowing crayfish of the genus Engaeus
are very specialised crayfish living in tunnel
systems in muddy banks, seepages and peaty
areas. Burnie burrowing crayfish (Engaeus
yabbimunna) (Photo: Niall Doran).
Wetlands and lakes (lentic
environments)
Water quantity and temperature
are the key climate change drivers
that will potentially impact on
fluvial systems, wetlands and lakes.
Wetlands receive water from three
main sources (precipitation, surface
flow and groundwater), and climate
change will affect these processes
in different ways (Table 4.1).
Wetlands that rely on precipitation
for water may be the most affected
by changing rainfall patterns, whilst
those reliant on groundwater may
be the most resilient (Poff et al.
2002). In Tasmania, many wetlands
receive water from both rainfall and
groundwater, and understanding the
balance between these two sources
will be crucial to predicting the
impact of climate change. Wetlands
linked in some way to river channels
will be directly affected by changes
in the flow regimes for those rivers.
Declining streamflows and longer
periods between overbank flows
may lead to increased dry periods
for wetlands. The more intense
floods may scour the bed of the
wetland and flush organic matter
and organisms out of the wetland.
Tasmania’s lakes and their tributaries
provide habitat for many aquatic
species, including endemic fish such
as saddled and golden galaxias and
the Arthurs, Great Lake, western
and Shannon paragalaxias. A
number of these lakes are already
in use for hydro generation and
may come under further pressure if
declining rainfall significantly reduces
lake levels. Riparian vegetation
surrounding the lakes will
die back if lake levels and
associated groundwater
drop for extended
periods of time.
Tasmania has
important
coastal wetland
communities,
particularly in
the Tasmanian
Wilderness
WHA. Freshwater
wetlands close
to sea level are
at risk from saline
groundwater intrusion
and saltwater intrusion
through the breaching of barrier
systems and sandbars (Steffen et
al. 2009). Nine of Tasmania’s ten
Ramsar wetlands of international
importance are in coastal and
estuarine environments, and thus
are at risk of sea level rise, saltwater
intrusion into freshwater systems,
and the effects of storm surges.
Similarly, the Directory of Important
Wetlands in Australia (DIWA) lists
89 nationally significant wetlands
in Tasmania (Blackhall 1996) and
analysis of types and risks indicates
that 55 of these are coastal and
are at risk of inundation. Almost
40% of the area of the TASVEG
communities that, when combined,
represent Tasmania’s freshwater
wetlands, are at less than 5m
elevation, and thus vulnerable to
storm surges with predicted sea
level rise.
27
Anecdotal evidence suggests that
changes in the amount and timing
of rain, and increased evaporation
have led to wetlands experiencing
extended dry periods. The driest
parts of Tasmania have extensive
wetlands, including saline lakes, but
after two centuries of settlement
and agriculture many have been
drained or inundated (Fensham and
Kirkpatrick 1989). Wetlands in the
Midlands and south-east have been
observed to fill quickly following
intense rainfall events, but then
experience extended dry periods
through below average rainfall
periods. Some of the wetlands in
the Midlands have experienced dry
periods of up to 30 years or more.
Some wetlands in the east of
Wetlands are one of the ecosystem types
predicted to be highly sensitive to the impacts
of climate change. (Photo: Oberon Carter).
Tasmania
have
changed from a pattern of winterwet and summer-dry to being dry
for extended periods (S. Blackhall
pers com.).
great-crested grebe and
it has been dry for most
of the period since the
1990’s. It is not known if this
species continues to breed
in Tasmania (S. Blackhall pers
com. 2009). Birds retreat from dry
inland wetlands to coastal estuarine
systems but these are increasingly
more saline, and may not be valuable
refuges in the future.
Increased water temperatures
in both wetland and lacustrine
environments, especially when
combined with reduced water
levels, will affect a range of aquatic
species where thresholds are
exceeded. Lakes in Tasmania are
characterised by different types of
thermal stratification, and increasing
temperatures and associated
changes to the warming and cooling
processes of those lakes may
alter the timing and nature of that
stratification.
The deep permanent freshwater
marshes on the West Coast and King
Island are also important Tasmanian
wetland systems. The Lavinia
Marshes on King Island have suffered
two recent catastrophic fires in quick
succession (2001 and 2007), with
up to two metres of irreplaceable
peat soils destroyed over large
areas. This is likely to change local
hydrology and lead to long term
impacts to the associated wetlands
(RMC 2007). These fires were the
result of dry lightning strikes, which
evidence suggests are occurring
more frequently in Tasmania, along
with unseasonal dry periods that had
allowed the marshes to dry out.
The seasonal migration patterns of
wetland species are predicted to
be interrupted by climate change,
and there is already evidence in
Tasmania of this phenomenon. The
evaporation of wetlands has had a
significant impact on migratory birds.
There is reduced waterbird breeding
activity and success because adults
fail to breed or water evaporates
before young reach the flying stage.
For example, Lake Dulverton is the
only known breeding site of the
Tasmania’s swamp forests, with
almost 40% of the mapped extent of
coast paperbark (Melaleuca ericifolia)
swamp forest below 5m elevation,
are another freshwater ecosystem
that will be potentially affected by
climate change and associated sea
level rise. These swamp forests are
vulnerable to salty groundwater
intrusion and storm surges, resulting
from predicted sea level rises. The
changes in hydrology that will be
brought about by climate change
28
also have the potential to significantly
impact on karstic features.
A major issue for the future
management of Tasmanian wetland
and freshwater aquatic systems
under increasing pressure from
climate change and ongoing drought
is how to balance the environmental
and social values of water
consumption. For example, farmers
and irrigators are under increasing
pressure to reduce their water use
and to maintain environmental flows
in rivers, whilst natural wetland
and freshwater aquatic ecosystems
are under pressure from reduced
effective precipitation. Changes to
the way that water is transferred
within and between catchments
through irrigation schemes will have
the potential to both directly and
indirectly affect the biophysical health
and condition of rivers, lakes and
wetlands.
The green and gold frog (Litoria
raniformis) is threatened in Tasmania.
Chytridiomycosis is an infectious
disease of amphibians, and it has been
linked to dramatic population declines
or even extinctions of amphibian
species in many countries, including
Australia. There has been significant
research internationally that links
the occurrence of Chytridiomycosis
to climate change. (Photo:
DPIPWE Collection).
5.
Biodiversity is important to the
economic and cultural welfare of
Tasmania. The state abounds in rich
wildlife and iconic species such as
the Tasmanian devil, the bluegum
that is the state’s floral emblem, and
the deciduous beech that brings
tourists and photographers to our
state every autumn. Biodiversity is
the diversity of species, populations,
genes, plant and animal communities
and ecosystems. Biodiversity
provides stability and productivity
of our natural systems (Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment 2005),
and is an important “life support
system” for the planet. It underpins
ecological processes that form the
environment on which all organisms
depend, providing ecosystem
services such as clean air and water,
and the food and fibres on which we
are reliant.
The Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC AR4 2007)
concluded that climate change will
have impacts on many aspects of
biodiversity including impacts on
ecosystems, their component species
and associated genetic diversity, and
on ecological interactions. It also
identified that biodiversity is the
most vulnerable sector for Australia
and New Zealand to the impacts
of climate change, with greater risks
than sectors such as agriculture and
forestry, health, tourism and major
infrastructure.
The first national assessment of the
vulnerability of Australia’s terrestrial
biodiversity to climate change has
Potential Impact of
Climate Change on Tasmania’s
Terrestrial Biodiversity
been recently produced (Steffen et al.
2009). It identified iconic natural areas
such as south-west Western Australia,
the Australian Alps, the Queensland
Wet tropics and Kakadu wetlands as
highly vulnerable to climate change.
The report provides an excellent
overview of how climate change has
already affected Australia’s biodiversity
and how it may potentially affect it
in the future. A national assessment
of the impact of climate change on
marine systems, including marine
biodiversity, has also been undertaken
(Hobday et al. 2006).
This preliminary assessment of
the potential impact of climate
change on Tasmania’s terrestrial
biodiversity is undertaken at the
major ecosystem level, and the
potential impact on species is also
considered. This assessment has
been undertaken by considering the
impact of the key drivers (increased
CO2, changed temperature and
precipitation, and extreme events)
on basic ecological and biological
responses of species and ecosystems.
This was done with the knowledge
that the responses of species and
ecosystems may be different due to
current and future changes in the
basic environment, and recognising
that the rate of change has not been
previously experienced (Steffen et
al. 2009).
How Tasmania’s terrestrial
biodiversity will be impacted by
climate change is largely unknown.
There have been many observational
records over the past few decades
of changes at the species and
29
ecosystem levels that are consistent
with a climate signal but it is very
difficult to attribute these changes
to climate change in the absence of
long-term studies.
The aim of this section is to identify
key vulnerabilities of Tasmanian
terrestrial biodiversity to climate
change. Potential impacts at the
major ecosystem level may be
on ecosystem services rather
than the natural values per se, and
these interactions with physical
and ecosystem processes are not
addressed in detail.
Key values
Tasmania has globally and nationally
significant natural values, which
are also culturally and scientifically
important. Globally significant
ecosystems in Tasmania include
alpine communities, temperate
rainforests and tall eucalypt forests,
buttongrass moorlands, highenergy coastal systems (Balmer
et al. 2004) and the Port Davey
marine and estuarine ecosystem
(Edgar et al. 2007) (see Chapters
3 and 6). A number of areas
are recognised as supporting
internationally important natural
heritage, including the Tasmanian
Wilderness World Heritage Area,
Macquarie Island World Heritage
Area, ten internationally significant
Ramsar-listed wetlands, and wetlands
and marine environments providing
breeding habitat for a number of
migratory terrestrial and marine
migratory species that are protected
under international conventions.
Impacts on key drivers
In general Tasmania is a mountainous
state with high topographic relief.
This may provide microhabitats
that act as refugia or as new sites
open for colonisation for species
or communities to move into.
The impact of climate change is
predicted to vary between regions.
Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT)
projections (in preparation) indicate
the Central Highlands region will
experience the most change.
Predicting the impact of climate
change on Tasmania’s biodiversity
is complicated by a range of issues
including the uncertainty about the
severity and direction of variation
in the basic physical and chemical
factors such as CO2 concentrations,
temperature, rainfall and ocean
acidity. It can be difficult to attribute
environmental change to a single
cause, and climate change will
interact with other existing threats
or stressors to biodiversity (see
Chapter 2). Nevertheless, there have
been recent changes to species and
ecosystems that Australian scientists
have identified have a ‘climate signal’
(Hughes 2000, 2003; Chambers et al.
2005; Steffen et al. 2009).
Table 5.1 Physical processes in major ecosystems likely to be impacted by climate change.
Physical climate change indicator
Potential impact
Increases in minimum and maximum temperatures will affect physiology of some
plant species
Increase in altitudinal range of Phytophthora cinnamomi
Increased temperature
Many of the dominant Eucalyptus species in Tasmania’s forests have a restricted
climatic and geographic range and may be susceptible to increased temperatures
May lead to an advance in the onset of spring, delay in autumn, and increased outof-season events such as winter flowering
May lead to increase in treeline
Reduced flow in rivers, drying of wetlands
Reduced precipitation
Oxidisation of peatlands, reduction in rate of peat accumulation in buttongrass
moorlands and Sphagnum peatlands
Increased stress of species currently at the limits of climate tolerance, e.g.
Eucalyptus gunnii, Sphagnum species
Decreased regeneration rates in dry eucalypt forests
Loss of alpine plant species that require frost for germination
Reduced incidence of frosts
Uphill movement of treeline
Increase in woody species in frost hollows
Loss of specialised fjaeldmark communities
Reduced snowlie
Loss of specialised snowpatch communities such as cushion moorlands
Widespread dieback of eucalypt species
Changed seasonality of rainfall
Breeding seasons of some mammals that are related to spring rainfall may change if
rainfall patterns change
Changes in the ratio of C3 to C4 plant species
Changes in the secondary metabolites such as tannins and phenolics will affect
palatability and nutrient value of plants to browsers
30
Potential Impact of Climate Change
on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity
Geology and geomorphology play
a fundamental role in determining
vegetation distribution. The
future distribution of vegetation
communities will also be controlled
by the response of geomorphic and
soil processes to climate change.
Conversely, direct effects of climate
change on vegetation will alter
rates of erosion and deposition
in geomorphic systems. Key
geomorphic systems most likely to
Physical climate change indicator
be affected by climate change are
fluvial (rivers, lakes and wetlands)
and coastal/estuarine systems
(particularly soft, sandy coasts). The
effects of important environmental
drivers on earth surface processes,
including temperature, rainfall,
evapo-transpiration and storminess,
will vary statewide. Sea level rise
will critically affect the coastal fringe
and estuaries. Other less extensive
systems (including karst, aeolian
and active hillslope processes)
will also be affected, with locally
important effects on landforms and
geoconservation values.
Some of the potential physical
processes that are likely to be
impacted by predicted climate
change and their possible impacts
on major ecosystem types are
summarised in Table 5.1.
Potential impact
Increased productivity in forests
Increased CO2
Changes in phenology of plant species
Woody “thickening” of vegetation
Expansion of rainforest into montane grasslands and eucalypt communities
Sea level rise and storm surges
Impact on dry coastal ecosystems and coastal wetlands, particularly where there is
no potential for upslope expansion and movement
Saltwater intrusion into freshwater wetlands
Near-coastal riparian Huon pine forests are sensitive to saltwater intrusion
Alpine ecosystems negatively impacted by increased soil evaporation with
increased temperature
Possible increase in myrtle wilt
Interactive effects
Changes to flowering season with consequent impacts for pollinators and
successful pollination
Increased temperature and increased CO2 may lead to increased growth rates and
resultant higher fuel loads
Increased fire frequency will affect age structure of forests and habitat availability
Loss of fire-sensitive species from increased number and intensity of bushfires
Extreme events
Increased frequency and severity of bushfires may lead to the loss of major
ecosystem types where dominant tree species such as Eucalyptus globulus,
Eucalyptus regnans and Athrotaxis are fire-killed
31
The potential impacts of climate
change on biodiversity at the species
and the major ecosystem level
are considered in the following
sections, but it should be noted that
the responses to climate change
will be complex and variable.
Climate change will not play out
evenly across the state and there
will be regional differences in the
vulnerability of ecosystems and
natural values.
Ecosystem level
responses
Climate change will lead to
ecosystem changes, including
transformed and novel ecosystems
for which there are no current
analogues, and local species
extinctions (Dunlop and Brown
2008). There will also be associated
effects on ecosystem processes which
will in turn affect the ecosystem
services provided to society. Changed
climate parameters such as decreased
rainfall and increased temperature,
and increased incidence of extreme
events such as increased frequency
and incidence of drought and fire,
will variably impact on terrestrial
biodiversity in different regions in
Tasmania. As a mountainous state
with strong climatic gradients,
Tasmania is considered to be
somewhat buffered from the
predicted impacts of climate change.
vulnerable ecosystems, and
moorland fauna such as the broadtoothed rat and burrowing crayfish
are sensitive to changes in moorland
habitats. Alpine ecosystems are
also highly vulnerable, particularly
to altered fire regimes. Alpine
communities on north-eastern
mountains such as Ben Lomond
and Mt Arthur, and relict rainforest
patches on protected gullies on the
east coast are considered to be
highly vulnerable. The Climate Futures
for Tasmania Project is currently
deriving new Tasmanian climate
projections to be released in 2010.
They will enable regional projections
to be developed.
Alpine, subalpine and
highland treeless ecosystems
Australian alpine environments have
been identified as one of the most
sensitive Australian environments
to the potential impacts of
climate change, with a high risk
of biodiversity loss predicted by
2020 (Green and Pickering 2002;
Hennessey et al. 2007). Endemic
alpine species have been identified
as having a disproportionately high
vulnerability to climate change (Pauli
et al. 2003), with limited capacity
to adapt (Fischlin et al. 2007). In
particular the predicted incidence of
extreme events such as wildfire and
drought could have a very significant
impact.
Figure 5.1 Distribution of Tasmania’s alpine, subalpine and highland treeless
ecosystem, a total extent of 168,000 hectares.
Increased shrub and tree invasion
could lead to significantly
transformed alpine ecosystems.
Tasmanian moorlands and peatlands
are potentially one of the most
32
Potential Impact of Climate Change
on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity
Tasmanian alpine environments are
distinguished by high vascular plant diversity
and endemic richness, primitive and
relictual species. Alpine communities are
vulnerable to climate change, with the
potential for increased incidence of fire
from lightning strikes - much of the
alpine vegetation is fire-killed.
(Photo: Tom Bennett).
Tasmania has more than half of
Australia’s alpine and treeless
subalpine vegetation, mostly within
the Tasmanian Wilderness World
Heritage Area (Balmer and Whinam
1991). The variable climate,
topography, geology and edaphic
conditions give rise to a wider range
of environmental conditions within
Tasmania’s high country than within
the Australian Alps (Kirkpatrick and
Bridle 1998, 1999).
Alpine and highland treeless
ecosystems in Tasmania include
treeless vegetation communities that
occur within the alpine zone where
the growth of trees is impeded by
climatic factors (Harris and Kitchener
2005). The altitude above which
trees cannot survive varies between
approximately 700 m in the southwest to over 1,400 m in the northeast highlands. Highland treeless and
alpine communities include highland
native grasslands and moorlands,
coniferous alpine heathlands, cushion
moorlands, alpine and subalpine
heaths, sedgelands and herblands.
Key values of alpine,
subalpine and highland
treeless ecosystems
The Tasmanian alpine ecosystem, like
many mountain regions of the world,
is distinguished by high vascular
plant diversity and endemic richness
(Kirkpatrick and Brown1984).
The bolster heaths or cushion
communities so characteristic of
Tasmania’s high country exhibit
globally exceptional levels of
endemism and diversity, with six
endemic
species
of cushion
shrubs. The
diversity of Tasmanian
alpine conifers (seven species from
six genera and two families) is very
high, and is rich in primitive and relict
species.
Potential impacts on alpine,
subalpine and highland
treeless ecosystems
All of Tasmania’s alpine regions are
projected to be warmer (Grose et
al. 2010), with reduced snowlie and
depth (McIntosh et al. 2005). Much
of the alpine country in Tasmania
is in central Tasmania which may
experience greater warming and
drying in the next few decades than
other Tasmanian regions (McIntosh
et al. 2005; Grose et al. 2010).
Changes in temperature and
precipitation are likely to impact
directly on alpine ecosystems, with
increased risk of fire under warmer
and drier climate scenarios being of
particular concern. Alpine conifers
are restricted (Balmer et al. 2004)
and particularly sensitive to fire
(Jackson 1999). One-third of King
Billy pine populations have been
eliminated by fire in the 100 years to
1988 (Brown 1988). More intense
33
and more
frequent fires may
also affect fire-sensitive plant species
in the Tasmanian Wilderness WHA,
including pencil pine, myrtle beech,
deciduous beech, and King Billy
pine. Research has demonstrated an
upward shift of alpine plant species
in the northern hemisphere (e.g.
Walther et al. 2005), and increased
evapotranspiration rates leading
to drought where warmer and
drier conditions are predicted (e.g.
Pederson et al. 2006). Increasing
temperature is likely to lead to
an increase in tree species in the
alpine ecosystem, with increased
germination and seedling survival
observed in many species in
cold environments including the
Australian Alps (Hughes 2000).
Snowpatch and fjaeldmark are
distinctive localised components of
alpine vegetation that are likely to be
sensitive to changes in temperature,
precipitation, frequency of frost and
patterns of snowlie. Fjaeldmark
vegetation occurs at the extreme
of the environmental gradient for
exposure to wind, frost heave and
insolation (Kirkpatrick et al. 2002).
Snowpatch plant communities are distinctive localised components
of alpine vegetation that are likely to be sensitive to changes in
temperature, precipitation, frequency of frost and patterns of
snowlie. Large patches of this distinctive longleaf milligania
(Milligania longifolia) and other alpine herbs dominate on
the boggy wet patches that form where snow drifts linger.
(Photo: Tim Rudman).
Key values of moorlands and
peatlands
Moorlands
and peatlands
Australia’s buttongrass moorlands
are a globally unique peatland type.
They occur in isolated poorlydrained boggy valley plains in Victoria
and New South Wales but have
their greatest extent (550,000 ha)
and diversity in Tasmania (Balmer
et al. 2004). Peatlands are a vital
component of the carbon cycle,
emitting methane and nitrous oxide
and storing large amounts of carbon.
They have been estimated to store
almost 30% of the global soil carbon
stores despite being only 3% of the
world’s surface (Parish et al. 2008).
Moorlands in Tasmania
include buttongrass
moorlands, Sphagnum
peatlands, rushland, sedgeland
and peatland predominantly on
low fertility substrates in high
rainfall areas (Figure 5.2). These
communities are considered to
be highly sensitive to the potential
impacts of climate change.
Buttongrass moorlands contain
over 200 species of flora and
provide habitat for a number of
endemic fauna and flora species
restricted to this ecosystem, as
well as taxa of ancient origins,
such as the burrowing crayfish
(Parastacoides spp.), pygmy mountain
shrimps (Allanaspides spp.) and
the damselfly (Synthemiopsis
gomphomacromioides). Buttongrass
flora includes several threatened
species and provides habitat for the
ground parrot (Pezoporus wallicus)
and the endangered orange-bellied
parrot (Neophema chrysogaster).
Buttongrass moorlands exemplify
vegetation succession associated
with fire, through a complex
Figure 5.2 The distribution of moorland and peatland ecosystems in Tasmania
34
Potential Impact of Climate Change
on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity
interactive process that involves
floristic, geomorphic and climatic
variables (Sharples 2003).
Potential impacts on
moorlands and
peatlands
Sphagnum peatlands are an unusual
and infrequent component of the
Tasmanian landscape. They are
generally restricted to the cooler
and wetter highlands of central
Tasmania, mostly between 600
to 1000 m in high rainfall sites.
Sphagnum peatlands are acidic
and tend to have a suite of plant
species present that are adapted to
acidity and poor drainage, although
bog candleheath (Richea gunnii) is
possibly the only Sphagnum-obligate
species. Sphagnum peatlands
serve as habitat for certain cryptic
and ‘primitive’ animal groupings,
including the first record of the
crustacean family Stygocaridae from
Tasmania (Whinam et al. 1989).
The conservation significance of
the Alpine Sphagnum Bogs and
Associated Fens was recognised in
2009 through their national listing
as an endangered community under
the Environment Protection and
Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999,
in addition to their listing under the
Tasmanian Nature Conservation Act
2002.
Tasmania’s extensive
moorlands and
peatlands are
potentially highly
impacted by
predicted
climate
change, with
changes in
temperature
and moisture
impacting
on peat
accumulation
and oxidation
rates. Buttongrass
moorlands have
their best expression
in western Tasmania which
like much of Tasmania will be
warmer (McIntosh et al. 2005; Grose
et al. 2010). Under the A2 scenario
increased winter rainfall and reduced
summer rainfall are likely in the west
(Grose et al. 2010). This will have
implications for altered fire regimes
and the incidence of the root-rot soil
pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi.
35
Tasmania’s
extensive buttongrass moorlands
are a globally unique peatland type.
Peatlands are a vital component of
the carbon cycle, emitting methane
and nitrous oxide and storing large
amounts of carbon. They have been
estimated to store almost 30%
of the global soil carbon stores.
Projected changes in precipitation and
temperature may result in peatlands
changing from an important carbon
storage to a carbon source through
oxidation of peatlands.
(Photo: Oberon Carter).
The distribution of Sphagnum peatlands in Tasmania is limited
by evapotranspiration in the warmest month. Changes in
precipitation patterns and increases in temperature may result
in a decline in the extent of Sphagnum peatlands, especially
if the intensity and frequency of fires increase. Sphagnum
peatlands of Tasmania provide an important carbon store.
Research on Sphagnum communities at Mt Field and on
the Central Plateau over the past 25 years has revealed
that these communities are being invaded by species
such as pineapple grass (Astelia alpina)­and woody shrub
species, as illustrated. This may lead to increased fire risk
with increased fuel loads and changed hydrology.
(Photo: Oberon Carter).
Projected
increases in temperature and altered
precipitation patterns are likely
to affect the long-term viability of
Sphagnum peatlands, particularly at
low altitude sites. Dry conditions
tend to result in desiccation of
Sphagnum moss, and drought
conditions are known to have
caused contraction of Sphagnum
moss beds in Tasmania (Whinam et
al. 2001) and its disappearance from
some mainland sites (Bridgman et al.
1995).
Moorlands may be the most
flammable vegetation type in the
world, able to burn at the highest
recorded fuel moisture levels
(Marsden-Smedley et al. 1999). They
are unusual soil systems, where
decayed buttongrass vegetation has
provided the main carbon source
for these extensive organosols,
but they are also highly flammable.
The organosols can burn or rapidly
oxidise during bushfires. A decrease
in effective precipitation and an
increase in extreme weather events
is likely to result in an increase in
both fire frequency and fire intensity.
Changing fire regimes would affect
the successional
process between
buttongrass moorland and
rainforest (Jarman et al. 1988a),
with an increase in the area of young,
post-fire buttongrass moorland
likely. Fire in buttongrass moorlands
affects both carbon storage and
runoff characteristics. Erosion,
sediment transport and deposition
in key western Tasmanian rivers and
estuaries is primarily controlled by
the health of organosols in these
catchments.
Many plant species in moorlands
are highly susceptible to the plant
pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi,
and increasing temperatures may
favour this pathogen, and it is
likely to reach higher elevations in
buttongrass moorlands than have
been recorded to date.
Forest, woodland and
associated ecosystems
Forests are amongst the most
productive terrestrial ecosystems,
covering about 30% of the globe,
and been identified as having a high
potential vulnerability to climate
change in the long-term, and
more immediately to the impacts
of changed disturbance regimes
(drought, fire and insects) (Fischlin et
36
al. 2007). Recent work has identified
that the impacts of climate change
on the forests of south-eastern
Australia could have serious social
and environmental consequences,
largely through the impacts of
climate change on fire regimes
(House, in preparation).
Tasmania has a large forested area
(52% of the state), with a diversity
of forest types including rainforests,
eucalypt forests and woodlands,
subalpine communities, coniferous
forests, heathlands and a range of
scrubs and woodlands dominated
by species other than eucalypts
such as wattles, tea-trees, banksias
(Figure 5.3). Rainforests occur from
sea level to subalpine environments
and extend over 750,000 ha, largely
in western Tasmania with its higher
rainfall. Where fire is more frequent
rainforest species become restricted
and eucalypt forests predominate.
Wet eucalypt forests are largely
dominated by ash species and
require catastrophic fire events for
stand replacement. Understoreys
may be shrubby or grassy, largely
depending on soil fertility. About
45% of Tasmania’s forests are dry
eucalypt forests and woodlands,
and they may have grassy, shrubby,
heathy or sedgy understoreys,
depending on rainfall, soil fertility,
Potential Impact of Climate Change
on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity
Figure 5.3. The distribution of forest ecosystems in Tasmania
(a) Rainforests
(b) Conifer forests
(c) Wet forests
(d) Dry forests
(e) Scrubs and Heaths
37
Rural tree decline or dieback has been widespread in Tasmania in the
past few decades, particularly in eastern Tasmania where it has led
to the widespread loss of white gum (Eucalyptus viminalis) forests
such as these in the Midlands. (Photo: Oberon Carter).
fire frequency, grazing regimes and
other environmental factors. In low
rainfall regions fire-sensitive forests
dominated by she-oaks and oyster
bay pines, and scrubs formed by
wattles, tea-trees and prickly box
occur.
Key values of forest,
woodland and associated
ecosystems
Tasmania’s temperate rainforest and
related rainforest scrubs, along with
alpine communities, provide habitat
for primitive relict genera of flora
and fauna and exhibit high levels of
endemism. Montane rainforests in
particular are rich in primitive plant
species, relict species and endemics,
especially coniferous forests. These
include the King Billy pine (Athrotaxis
selaginoides) montane forests,
pencil pine (Athrotaxis cupressoides)
montane forests, and Huon pine
(Lagarostrobos franklinii) rainforests.
The most extensive pencil pine
montane forests and woodlands
are located on the Central Plateau,
with the vast majority (97%) in the
World Heritage Area (Balmer et
al. 2004). This long-lived (1,000+
years), fire-sensitive endemic conifer
dominates small areas of rainforest
from mid-altitude forests to alpine
heaths. Half of the montane King
Billy pine forests are in the World
Heritage Area. Huon pine rainforest
is usually found along river banks,
flood plains and the margins of lakes
in western Tasmania from sea level
to 850 m altitude (Balmer et al.
2004). A small area of Huon pine
rainforest includes vegetation with
the primitive endemic angiosperm
whitey wood (Acradenia franklinii)
within the understorey. Huon pine
is the longest lived tree in Australia –
trees over 3,000 years old have been
dated – making it one of the longest
lived organisms on Earth. For this
reason, Huon pine is of scientific
importance for dendrochronological
studies.
Tasmania’s tall eucalypt forests form
some of the most pristine temperate
forests in the world. These unique
forests provide the world’s best
examples of distinctive evolutionary
features that enable the dominant
sclerophyll trees to survive in areas
where the climatic climax vegetation
is rainforest (Helsham 1988).
These forests have the greatest
species richness and highest levels
of endemism of any mixed forest
in Australia (Balmer et al. 2004).
Sclerophyll forests provide habitat
for all five of Tasmania’s endemic
mammals (Driessen and Mallick
2003). Several threatened raptors,
such as the grey goshawk (Accipiter
novaehollandiae), wedge-tail eagle
(Aquila audax) and the masked
owl (Tyto novaehollandiae) occur in
these forest habitats, as well as the
threatened spotted-tailed quoll and
Tasmanian devil. Nine of Tasmania’s
11 endemic terrestrial bird species
are found within the sclerophyll
forest habitats (Driessen and Mallick
2003).
38
Potential
impacts on
forest, woodland
and associated ecosystems
Forest ecosystems are slow-growing
and do not have the ability to
migrate quickly into more favourable
climatic zones, thus they potentially
have a low capacity to adapt to
climate change. Species composition
in forests is likely to change, resulting
in differences in species’ tolerance to
new conditions and the rates that
they are able to migrate. Tasmania
has 29 eucalypt species (Williams
and Potts 1996), with 17 taxa
endemic to the state (Brown et al.
1983), and many of these form the
dominant tree cover in our forests.
Many Australian eucalypts have a
restricted climatic and geographic
range. Over 50% of Australian
eucalypts have distributions that
span less than 3°C of mean annual
temperature, with 25% spanning
less than 1°C (Hughes et al. 1996).
This narrow temperature tolerance
range is significant with regard to
future forest habitat availability and
suitability. Temperature increases are
likely across Tasmania (McIntosh et al.
2005; Grose et al. 2010).
There are concerns about the
impact of climate change on the
carbon storage potential of forest
systems. Increased respiration rates
and changes in species composition
Potential Impact of Climate Change
on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity
may reduce carbon accumulation in
temperate forests. The increased risk
of fire may also have a major impact
on the ability of forests to store
carbon, and reach maturity, as well
as impacts on species composition
and forest structure. Recently there
has been increasing recognition of
the role that old growth forests play
in the continued storage of carbon
(Luyssaert et al. 2008).
Fire plays a major role in the
regeneration and dynamics of forest
ecosystems in Tasmania, ranging
from fire-sensitive forest types
such as the conifer communities
through to forest ecosystems that
require catastrophic fire for their
regeneration. Changes in the nature
of extreme fire events predicted
in response to climate change are
considered to be one of the most
significant impacts on Tasmania’s
forest ecosystems. Inappropriate
fire frequency has previously been
identified as possibly the greatest
threat to the integrity of eucalypt
communities (Brown 1996). Changes
to the key drivers such as increased
temperature and reduced rainfall,
increased productivity associated
with increased CO2, combined with
increased incidence of lightning and
possibly stronger wind patterns, may
all contribute to increased incidence
and severity of fire. In addition
changes in fire management and
prescribed burning policies could
lead to changes in forest structure
and composition.
Rainforests may be particularly
susceptible to the impacts of
climate change through
the impacts of more
frequent drought
and increased
fire regimes,
particularly
remnant
rainforest
patches in the
protected
gullies of
eastern
Tasmania.
Forests such as
the small pockets
of specialised
rainforest (“cloud
forest”) on Maria
Island, Tasman Peninsula,
Flinders Island and south
Bruny Island provide important
refugia for rainforest species, and are
likely to be susceptible. Tasmania is
a stronghold in Australia of firesensitive rainforest types - large
areas of conifers and deciduous
beech have already been lost to
fire. One third of King Billy pine
populations have been eliminated
by fire in the past 100 years (Brown
1988). Warmer and drier conditions
are likely to lead to an increase in
both fire frequency and fire intensity.
39
Montane
coniferous forest at Mt Anne in the
Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage
Area. These forests contain many
endemic species, some of which are
considered primitive. Reduced rainfall
may have direct implications for
these species, as well as the potential
increase in wildfires which would
threaten these fire-sensitive forests.
(Photo: Greg Jordan).
Miena cider gum (Eucalyptus gunnii subsp. divaricata) provides an
example of dramatic decline in the face of changing climatic conditions
interacting with other factors. Miena cider gum grows in poorly-drained
conditions at the margins of frost hollows and has suffered a rapid
decline throughout its narrow geographic range over the last two
decades. This is thought to be due to a combination of factors and
exacerbated by extended drought. (Photo: Neil Davidson)
Warmer and drier conditions in
mountain areas leading to increased
drought has been projected to lead
to increased dieback in mountain
forests (Bugmann et al. 2005). There
has been recent observational
evidence of drought-associated
death and damage to the crowns of
King Billy pines in different parts of
Tasmania such as Mount Anne and
Mount Bobs and to pencil pines
at Cradle Mountain and Mount
Field. Rainforests provide habitat for
primitive endemic species that are
not likely to be able to adapt rapidly
to change to climate parameters.
An assessment of the impact of
climate change on south-east
Australian sclerophyll forests has
been undertaken as a component
of a national assessment of the
impact of climate change on the
National Reserve System (House
in preparation). Changes in the
frequency and intensity of both
planned and catastrophic fire
regimes is potentially the biggest
single impact of eucalypt forests of
climate change, leading to changes in
the structure and composition (Cary
2002). This will impact particularly
on the development and persistence
of tree hollows (Mackey et al. 2002),
affecting habitat for arboreal fauna.
Fire will also impact on
the soil carbon stored
under these forests.
Changes in CO2 are likely
to change growth rates and
the interaction of tree species
and available moisture, particularly
in regenerating forests (Steffen
and Canadell 2005 cited in House
in prep.). Regeneration of these
forest types following fire has also
been linked to significant decreases
in surface runoff and streamflow,
which will affect fluvial processes and
reduce water availability.
Dry sclerophyll forests and
woodlands are largely confined
to the lower rainfall regions of
central and eastern Tasmania, and
the northern coastal zones. These
ecosystems, along with Tasmania’s
largely agricultural landscapes, are
concentrated in the ‘temperate
cool-season wet’ agro-climatic
zone (Hutchinson et al. 2005)
that is likely to be highly impacted
upon by the effects of climate
change (Dunlop and Brown 2008).
Woodlands in particular have already
undergone significant changes since
European settlement, with extensive
fragmentation in lowland Tasmania.
These regions, like the rest of the
State, will experience warming in
the next few decades (McIntosh et
al. 2005; Grose et al. 2010). Under
the A2 scenario increased summer
and autumn rainfall is likely in the
east, and central Tasmania will have
reduced rainfall in all seasons (Grose
et al. 2010).
40
Dieback in eucalypt trees is
widespread in Tasmania, with the
widespread death of dominant
eucalypts in rural areas since the
1970’s. The dieback in white gum
(Eucalyptus viminalis) and black
peppermint (E. amygdalina), and
more recently the death of montane
species yellow gum, (E. subcrenulata)
at Cradle Mountain, gum-top stringy
bark (E. delegatensis) at Great Lake,
Miena cider gum (E. gunnii ssp.
divaricata) on the Central Plateau
have been linked to a 30 year
autumn deficit in rainfall (e.g. Calder
and Kirkpatrick 2008). The recent
extended drought has also affected
forest understorey condition and
wildlife habitat, but drought-breaking
winter rains in 2009 have rejuvenated
understoreys in many districts.
Lowland grassland ecosystems
Native temperate grasslands are
grass-dominated ecosystems where
seasonal climates and soils favour the
dominance of perennial grasses and
other graminoids. The temperate
grasslands biome occupies about ~ 8%
of the earth’s terrestrial surface. These
grasslands occur on every continent
except for Antarctica and are now
the most endangered ecosystem on
most of them, especially the prairies of
North America, the pampas of South
America, the lowland grasslands of
south-east Australia and the steppes
of Eastern Europe (Henwood 2010).
Grasslands are estimated to contain
about 34% of the world’s terrestrial
carbon (World Bank 2009).
Potential Impact of Climate Change
on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity
Natural temperate grasslands in
Australia occur in a wide arc from
Adelaide in South Australia to
Armidale in New South Wales
(Moore 1970). The grasslands form
a floristic continuum with temperate
grassy woodlands, which are
widespread in southern and eastern
Australia. Australia’s temperate
tussock grasslands consist of a
mix of perennial C3 genera (Poa,
Austrodanthonia, Austrostipa) and
a widespread C4 grass (Themeda
triandra), with few woody species.
Lowland grasslands are largely reliant
on winter-spring rainfall, with most
plant growth in spring. However,
grasslands are adapted to a high
variability in the rainfall, and have
evolved under high disturbance
regimes with fire and grazing (Prober
et al. 2007).
Tasmanian lowland temperate
grasslands cover around 100,000
ha (Figure 5.4), and are largely
restricted to more fertile soils in
the lower rainfall zones of eastern
and central Tasmania. It is one of
the most threatened and modified
ecosystems in the state. Lowland
grasslands have suffered significant
loss and degradation in the past
decade, particularly in the Midlands
where severe drought has persisted.
Lowland grasslands are generally
found in landscapes with a high
potential for agricultural production,
and they will continue to be
exposed to loss through land use
change, which is likely to increase as
a response to climate change (see
also Chapter 2).
Figure 5.4 The distribution of lowland grassland ecosystems in Tasmania
41
Lowland temperate native grasslands
are one of the most threatened and
fragmented ecosystems in Australia
(Kirkpatrick et al.1995). Lowland
temperate grasslands and grassy
woodlands are one of Australia’s
most under-represented biomes in
the national conservation estate - it
is estimated that <2% of the lowland
temperate grasslands remain in most
Australian regions (Kirkpatrick et al.
1997; Carter et al. 2002), with much
of this area in private ownership.
Key values of lowland
grassland ecosystems
Tasmania has some of the most
extensive areas of remaining
lowland grassland in Australia, with
the Tasmanian Midlands having
nationally significant examples
(McDougall and Kirkpatrick 1994).
They are species-rich ecosystems
and are important habitat for
threatened plants and animals. There
are 56 flora and fauna grassland
species listed on the Tasmanian
Threatened Species Protection Act
1995 including fourteen listed on
the Commonwealth Environment
Protection and Biodiversity
Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC).
Whilst much of the remaining
grassland suffers from a legacy
of fragmentation, weed invasion
and land use change, they are
important for ecosystem function
in lowland agricultural regions. The
conservation significance of the
lowland grassland communities,
Lowland Poa labillardierei grassland
and Lowland Themeda triandra
grassland was recognised in 2009
through the listing of Tasmanian
lowland temperate grasslands as
a critically endangered community
under the EPBC Act.
Potential impacts on lowland
grassland ecosystems
An assessment of the impact of
climate change on lowland grasslands
and grassy woodlands has been
undertaken as a component of a
national assessment of the impact
of climate change on the National
Reserve System (Prober et al. in
preparation). Likely responses
include a loss of grasses and an
associated expansion of shrubs,
with an impact on grass-dependent
species such as seed-eating birds.
The fragmentation and degradation
of lowland grasslands reduces their
natural resilience, making them more
vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change.
Recent experimental work provides
evidence that increasing atmospheric
CO2 may be contributing to
shrubland expansion and to invasion
of grasslands by woody plants in
the past 200 years on a global scale
(Morgan et al. 2007; Bloor et al.
2008). In the past decades there
has been observational evidence
of increased shrub invasion into
Tasmanian grasslands - landholders
have reported increased densities of
woody species such as prickly box
(Bursaria spinosa), wattles (Acacia
species) and woody weed species
such as gorse and broom. This trend
is reported throughout eastern
Australia and is often referred to as
“thickening”.
Differences in phenological
responses between different
functional groups may potentially
increase competition within
grassland ecosystems (Cleland
et al. 2006). The impacts of the
projected climate of 2040 (2°C
warming and CO2 at 550 ppm)
in Tasmanian temperate native
grasslands on factors such as soil
carbon storage, pasture productivity,
population dynamics and nutrient
availability have been the subject
of recent research (Williams et
al. 2007). Population growth of
Themeda triandra, a perennial C4
grass, was largely unaffected by
either factor but population growth
of Austrodanthonia caespitosa, a
perennial C3 grass, was reduced
substantially in elevated CO2
plots, with reduced reproduction,
germination and soil moisture, and
was probably due to increased soil
evaporation. Experimental work
in tallgrass prairie grasslands in
the USA have demonstrated an
extended growing season (by 3
weeks), and a shift in reproductive
events (Sherry et al. 2007).
Natural grasslands, like forest
systems, are important for the
sequestration of large amounts
of carbon, primarily in the soil
(Amundson 2001; World Bank
2009), and grassland degradation
and conversion is a large source of
carbon loss internationally (Xie et al.
2007; Yang et al. 2008).
42
Species level responses
Climate change has been predicted
to have a wide range of impacts
on Australian species, including
changes in species distributions and
abundances, ecosystem processes,
interactions between species, and
various threats to biodiversity
(Dunlop and Brown 2008). Predicted
climate change is expected to result
in changes in species’ numbers,
distribution and composition. There
is growing evidence that climate
change will become one of the
major drivers of species extinctions
this century (Foden et al. 2008).
The range of potential impacts of
climate change on individual species
is extensive, and species are likely to
react differently and individualistically.
Dunlop and Brown (2008) and
Steffen et al. (2009) both provide
excellent summaries of the potential
impacts of climate change in
Australia on the biology and ecology
of individuals, and at the population
and ecosystem levels, and these
principles are directly applicable to
Tasmania.
Tasmania has approximately 1,900
native plant species, 34 native
terrestrial mammals, 159 resident
terrestrial species of birds, 21 land
reptiles, 11 amphibians and 44
freshwater fish, and many of these
species are naturally rare and are
geographically and climatically
restricted (http://www.dpiw.tas.gov.
au). These groups will be variously
impacted by the predicted impacts
of climate change. However no
Potential Impact of Climate Change
on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity
Natural grasslands, like forest systems, are important for the
sequestration of large amounts of carbon, primarily in the soil,
and grassland degradation and conversion is a large
source of carbon loss (Photo: Matthew Appleby).
detailed risk-assessment has been
undertaken at the species level to
date. Some potential impacts are
listed on the next page (Table 5.2).
Threatened species
More than 600 species of plant and
animal are listed on the schedules
of Tasmania’s Threatened Species
Protection Act 1995. They have
a disproportionally high risk of
extinction from the potential impacts
of climate change. They may already
have low population numbers, low
numbers of mature individuals,
low genetic diversity, or specialised
habitat or ecological requirements.
These predisposing traits may make
them more susceptible and less
adaptable to environmental change.
In Tasmania, the broad-toothed rat
(Mastacomys fuscus) occurs in
sedgelands and alpine heathlands
of western Tasmania. Modelled
climate change with a 20%
reduction in precipitation and
a warming of 3.4°C at 42°S
(central Tasmania) suggests
that the distribution of this
species will contract from
coastal and inland lowland
areas into mountains, with
the only really suitable areas
being in the vicinity of Cradle
Mountain–Lake St Clair
(Green et al. 2008).
(Photo: Michael Driessen).
43
Table 5.2 Some examples of the potential impact of climate change on various elements of biodiversity.
Mammals
The subalpine and moorland habitats of the broad-toothed rat (Mastacomys fuscus) may be highly vulnerable, putting it
at risk.
Birds
Changes in phenology and breeding is predicted for terrestrial birds (Chambers et al. 2005)
Wetland birds impacted by drying of wetlands, saltwater intrusion into freshwater coastal systems, loss of habitat for
coastal birds.
All species within the albatross, penguin, petrel and shearwater families considered at risk (Foden et al. 2008).
In Australia, it is anticipated that nearly 20% of migratory bird species are potentially affected through the loss of coastal
habitat due to sea level rise, and marine and coastal birds will also be affected in combination with coastal development
(Mallon 2007).
Reptiles
Some Tasmanian skinks may be at risk to climate change, including three mountain species with specific temperature
requirements.
The vulnerable Pedra Branca skink (Niveoscincus palfreymani) is only found on the barren island of Pedra Branca where
they feed on small invertebrates and on fish scraps dropped or regurgitated by the seabirds on the island. They are
susceptible to any changes in the seabird colony, and their low-lying habitat is at risk of storm surges.
Amphibians
Frogs are considered the most at risk taxa (Steffen et al. 2009), particularly from the increased incidence of chytrid
fungus (Laurance 2008). All of Tasmania’s 11 species occur in families identified as vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change (Foden et al. 2008).
Fish
Native freshwater fish are likely to be sensitive to increased water temperature and its interactive effects with reduced
rainfall on water quality.
The golden galaxias (Galaxias auratus) occurs mainly at Lake Sorell and Lake Crescent, where water levels have been
decreasing to below the level where spawning habitat dries out.
Invertebrates
Pollinators may experience disruption to their food supply, because their timing is dependent on cumulative
temperature, whereas flowering is synchronised by photoperiod.
Plants
Species with nowhere to go, such as those that live on mountain tops, low-lying islands, high latitudes and edges of
continents, and those with restricted ranges such as rare and endemic species, are considered vulnerable to climate
change. Tasmania has eleven obligate alpine plant species, living only on the mountain tops.
Tasmania has high levels of endemism in its plant species, particularly in alpine and rainforest species - 70% of the species
on western mountain tops are endemic.
Plant species with extreme habitat/niche specialisations, such as narrow tolerance to climate-sensitive variables, are
considered vulnerable. In Tasmania this could include snowpatch species such as heath cushion plant (Dracophyllum
minimum), redflower milligania (Milligania lindoniana) and the small star plantain (Plantago glacialis).
Plant species that are fire-killed are also considered to be vulnerable to the effects of changed fire frequencies and
intensities due to climate change. All the Tasmanian native conifer species are highly susceptible to the impacts of fire.
44
Potential Impact of Climate Change
on Tasmania’s Terrestrial Biodiversity
6.
The Tasmanian marine and coastal
environments are characterised by
a rich biodiversity, heterogeneous
coastal landforms, a plethora of
offshore island habitats and the
convergence of oceanic currents
which provide a wide range of
environments and ecological niches.
Tasmania has the highest ratio of
coastline per unit of land area of any
Australian state, with approximately
5,400 km of coastline, and over 25%
of the area of the state lies below
the high water mark (RPDC 2003).
Key values
Marine systems
Potential Impact of
Climate Change on Tasmania’s
Marine and Coastal Ecosystems
the northern marine areas including
Bass Strait), Tasmanian (the marine
area south of Bass Strait) and the
Insulantarctic (Macquarie Island).
Both the Bassian and Tasmanian
bioprovinces are each divided into
four distinct bioregions based on
the distribution of reef plants and
animal communities. Twenty-one
marine reserves are declared within
Tasmania, with the largest comprising
the Macquarie Island Marine
Reserve. The Commonwealth has
declared 13 marine reserves in
South East Marine Region, 8 of
which lie adjacent to Tasmanian State
Waters, with the network covering
226,500 km2.
The South East Marine Region
of Australia comprises
three biogeographic
bioprovinces,
the Bassian
(comprising
45
Australia’s marine environment has
unique geological, oceanographic
and biological characteristics, with
high levels of endemism in the fish,
echnioderms and molluscs. Changes
in the chemistry and temperature of
Tasmania’s marine environment may
have a profound effect on marine
ecosystems. (Photos: Benita Vincent).
Handfish belong to a unique Australian family of anglerfish
(Brachionichthyidae) - five of the eight currently identified species
are endemic to Tasmania and Bass Strait. The spotted handfish
(Brachionichthys hirsutus) is classified as Critically Endangered
on the IUCN Red List 2002. It has a highly restricted territory,
being found only in the estuary of Derwent River and nearby
areas. Species with narrow habitat requirements or with a
very localised distribution are potentially more vulnerable to
the impacts of climate change on the marine environment.
(Photo: Graham Edgar).
The
Tasmanian
marine environment is recognised
for the global significance of its
marine biodiversity. The Tasmanian
marine environment is highly valued
with areas such as the Bathurst
Channel marine and estuarine
community considered unique
and globally anomalous (Edgar et
al. 2007). The geomorphological,
climatic, hydrodynamic and
hydrological conditions operating
in the Port Davey region have
generated an aquatic environment
with an unusually abundant mix
of flora and fauna. Some of these
endemic species have an extremely
narrow range and include relictual
Gondwanan elements, notably the
Port Davey skate (Edgar et al. 2007).
The kelp forests of southern
Tasmania are world-renowned
for their ecological and economic
significance. Kelp, a major keystone
species, provides key habitat
for commercial species such as
abalone and rock lobster, important
regional fisheries. Kelp forests also
play important ecological roles
influencing the hydrological and
light environment and
the recruitment of fish
and invertebrates. They play
a key role as a mechanism for
invertebrate dispersal and provide
important foraging and nesting
habitat for shorebirds and migratory
waders. Kelp forests also have a very
high recreational value for diving in
Tasmania.
Estuaries
Estuarine environments are among
the most productive on earth - the
sheltered tidal waters of estuaries
support unique communities of
plants and animals that are specially
adapted for life at the margin
of the sea. In Tasmania these
include beaches and dunes, rocky
foreshores, marshes and other
wetlands, mud and sandflats, seagrass
meadows, kelp forests and rocky
reefs. Estuaries are essential for
the survival of many birds, fish and
mammals. These “nurseries of the
sea” provide many species of fish
with sheltered waters for spawning
and safe habitat for juveniles to
develop. Some migratory wader
birds rely on estuaries as resting
and feeding grounds during their
long journeys. In particular, the
Derwent Estuary is visited by at
least 11 species of migratory birds
46
including the short-tailed shearwater.
The lower Derwent estuary and
adjoining bays and channels are
the only location where the unique
and endangered spotted handfish
(Brachionichthys hirsutus) is found
(Bruce and Green 1998).
Coastal systems
Tasmania has a wide diversity
of coastal landforms, reflecting
complex lithology and geological
structure, various discrete sediment
sources, and variable nearshore
submarine topography. It has a
large extent of coastline relative
to its land mass, with the highest
ratio of coastline to land area of
any Australian state (RPDC 2003).
There are few undisturbed highenergy compartmentalised rocky
and sandy coasts in the world’s
temperate zones that compare with
those in Tasmania, especially on the
west coast (Sharples 2003). This
high-energy coastline has a diversity
of landforms and associated plant
communities and species. Tasmania’s
offshore islands are important sea
bird rookeries (Brothers et al. 2001)
and contain cool temperate island
floras of national significance on Ile
du Golfe, Maatsuyker Island and Flat
Witch Island in the World Heritage
Area (Balmer et al. 2004).
Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems
The Tasmanian coastal environment
contains a high proportion of the
state’s native plant species (about
a third), with about 145 species
(8% of the flora) largely confined
to coastal areas (Balmer et al.
2004). The west coast habitats
offer specialised niches for some
rare and restricted endemic plants,
particularly short coastal herbfields,
coastal cliffs, coastal beach sands,
sea bird breeding colonies and
coastal lagoons. The coastal plant
communities of the World Heritage
Area are largely free of exotic sandbinding plants, with the exception
of the recent invasion of coast sea
spurge (Euphorbia paralias). Hence,
natural dune formation and erosion
occur, supporting natural diversity
in the grassy dune vegetation. In
sheltered embayments on the west
coast a globally-unusual fen known
locally as marsupial lawns occur,
the result of natural geomorphic
processes combined with grazing
(Balmer et al. 2004).
Outstanding coastal features include
raised marine terraces on the west
coast that provide Australia’s most
complete record of sea level in
relation to tectonic uplift (Houshold
et al. 2007), and the coastal
calcarenite on Flinders Island’s
south-west coast that are some of
Australia’s best developed karst
systems.
the coast between Cockle Creek
and Macquarie Harbour contributes
to the international significance of
the Tasmanian Wilderness World
Heritage Area. The coastal barrier,
lagoon and contributing fluvial
system at New River is arguably the
most pristine integrated coastal/
estuarine/fluvial system in Australia.
North-western Tasmania has
outstanding examples of beach
ridge sequences such as those on
Robbins Island, marking successive
Quaternary uplift events (van der
Geer 1981). Similarly the extensive
calcareous dune systems that parallel
the west coast represent at least
two major phases of Quaternary
activity, and the spectacular parallel
dune systems enclosing brackish
lagoons along the east coast of
the Furneaux Islands, along with
the saline lagoon systems of
Cape Barren Island, are also of
high geoconservation significance.
Important examples of coasts that
have been subject to Quaternary
uplift are found on King Island, with
many raised beaches and sea-caves
(Jennings 1959). Waterhouse Point
area is composed of extensive
ocean beaches and relict Pleistocene
terrestrial longitudinal dune systems,
originally sourced from the dry bed
of Bass Strait (Bowden 1983).
Tasmania’s south and west
coasts have the most extensive,
undeveloped coastline in southeastern Australia. Backed by
essentially unmodified catchments,
47
Impacts on key drivers
Marine systems
South-eastern Tasmania is expected
to show the greatest sea surface
temperature (SST) rising for
any location in the Southern
Hemisphere. Current evidence is
showing an increase in southward
extent of the East Australian Current
(EAC) in south-eastern Tasmania
with a resultant southern extension
of warmer, nutrient poor waters.
Data from the CSIRO show that the
mean SST in Mercury Passage has
already risen by 1.6°C in 50 years,
three times the average rate of
global warming (CSIRO 2007). The
Leeuwin Current which influences
the west coast of Tasmania may
decrease in strength, affecting
important upwelling areas that are
critical foraging areas for a number
of marine organisms and threatened
species such as the Shy Albatross
and marine mammals. A decrease
in zonal westerly winds may inhibit
East Coast Tasmanian upwelling
events, and a strengthening of the
EAC will limit impingement of
nutrient-rich southern waters.
Regardless of the other issues arising
from increased CO2 emissions
and their effects on the marine
environment and oceanographic
processes, the natural absorption
of CO2 by the world’s oceans is
already having an observable impact
(Royal Society 2005). Increased
CO2 concentrations in seawater
are currently reducing the pH
levels of the ocean making it more
acidic, having already dropped 0.1
units from pre-industrial levels
(Hobday et al. 2008). Reduced pH
also reduces the concentrations
of carbonate ion and aragonite
which are vital for the formation
of shells and skeletons of marine
organisms. Other indirect impacts
of increasing acidity of the oceans
include increased stratification of
layers and the undersaturation
of calcium carbonate. Changes in
ocean chemistry are already leading
to decreased calcium deposition
of organisms that are a major
component of the lower food web
(Fabry et al. 2008; Riebesell et al.
2007; Riebesell et al. 2008).
important microbial processes
such as nitrogen fixation and
denitrification in estuaries (Lomas
et al. 2002). Some of the greatest
potential impacts of climate change
on estuaries may result from changes
in physical mixing characteristics
caused by changes in freshwater
runoff (Scavia et al. 2002). This
leads to changes in water residence
time, nutrient delivery, vertical
stratification, salinity and control of
phytoplankton growth rates. The
effects of changing rainfall patterns
on water supply and stormwater
run-off increase sediment loads and
cause siltation, thus altering estuarine
habitats.
Estuaries
The likely physical effects on the
estuarine environment include:
Climate change was identified as
one of the nine potential threats
to the biological resources and
conservation value of Tasmanian
estuaries (Edgar et al. 1999). Other
threats among the nine identified,
such as modification to water flow
and the spread of pest species,
are also exacerbated by climate
change. The mix of marine and
freshwater influences on estuarine
systems suggests that estuaries will
be impacted by climate change
from multiple sources. There are
impacts associated with sea level rise,
flooding and shoreline erosion.
Climate change induced changes
in pH, water temperature, wind,
dissolved CO2 and salinity can all
affect water quality in estuarine
waters (Gitay et al. 2001). Increased
water temperature also affects
- Widening and deepening of
estuaries
- Further upstream penetration of
tides, and potentially salt wedges
- Impeded river discharge,
potentially increasing flooding
- A greater proportion of fluvial
sediment deposited in estuaries,
rather than augmenting coastal
sediment supply
- Erosion of coastal barriers
- Creation of new lagoon
entrances
- Modification of muddy estuarine/
deltaic/saltmarsh landforms
- Penetration of salt water into
groundwater
- Rising groundwater tables
48
Coastal systems
Coastal systems in Tasmania
are considered some of the
environments most vulnerable
to climate change and sea level
rise. Recent climate science has
progressed significantly since the
IPPC’s Fourth Assessment Report,
and data presented at a recent
Standing Committee indicates that
possible sea level rise is at the upper
end of the IPPC 4 projections of
0.8 metres by 2100 (House of
Representatives Standing Committee
on Climate Change, Water,
Environment and the Arts 2009). Sea
level rise is projected to result in the
gradual inundation of ecosystems
for about half of the Australian coast
(Department of Climate Change
2009).
The Tasmanian coastal environment
is identified in the Tasmanian Climate
Change Strategy as vulnerable to
the impacts of climate change, with
significant areas of coast at risk of
erosion from exposure to sea level
rise and storm surge inundation.
More than 1,440 km of Tasmania’s
coastline has been identified as being
at risk of coastal flooding, and more
than 975 km of shoreline are at risk
of erosion, sand dune mobility, rock
falls and slumping as a result of sea
level rise and storm surges (Sharples
2006), with consequent impacts on
natural values.
Impacts on Tasmania’s coastal
landforms will be complex and
variable, (Table 6.1) reflecting
the diversity of coastal systems.
Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems
Coastal grasslands dominated by the native
Spinifex (Spinifex hirsutus) in north-eastern
Tasmania. (Photo: Tim Rudman).
General effects of climate change
and sea level rise on various coastal
landforms may include extensive
submergence of low-lying areas,
advancement of low and high
tides landwards, increased coastal
erosion, more frequent and intense
storm surges and minor coastal
aggradation, where longshore
sediment supply outstrips erosion
(Bird 1985). Increased storminess
will also likely modify western
Tasmanian coastal environments.
Sea level rise occurs as a direct
consequence of thermal expansion
of ocean water, and the melting of
land ice, driven by global warming.
The southward extension of
the warmer EAC waters is also
predicted to result in a sea level rise
above that of global background
sea level rise. Over the last 150
years, global sea levels have risen by
approximately 15-18 cm (Solomon
et al. 2007). This figure is supported
locally in Tasmania by a measured
rise of approximately 14 cm since
1841 at Port Arthur (Hunter et al.
2003) (see Ch.1 for a discussion of
sea level rise). These changes are
significant – application of the Bruun
Rule (Bruun 1962) suggests that for
sandy coasts, for every 1m of rise
there will be 50-100 m of horizontal
erosion.
A comprehensive analysis of
Tasmania’s coastal vulnerability to
sea level rise has been undertaken
(Sharples 2006). The range of
Tasmanian coastal landforms in
combination with likely processes
of degradation allowed various
key factors to
be identified,
and applied to a
detailed line map
of the state’s coastal
landforms.
Many Tasmanian beaches
show evidence of ongoing retreat
and some of progradation over the
past few decades. It is likely that at
least some of this erosion is linked
to recent sea level rise induced
by climate change. The IPCC AR4
cautions that for mid-latitudinal
coastal systems, such as those
found in Tasmania, it is difficult to
discriminate the extent to which
changes such as coastal erosion
are a part of natural variability. The
clearest evidence of the impact of
climate change on coasts over the
past few decades comes from polar
coasts and tropical reefs. Nearly all
beaches on the south-west coast are
currently eroding, with large active
foredune erosion scarps (Cullen
1998). Air-photo evidence indicates
that this erosion has probably been
in progress since at least the 1960s.
The most spectacular example of
coastal retreat in Tasmania is found
at Ocean Beach on the west coast
where the coastline has retreated
between 20 and 30 metres over
the last few decades (Ian Houshold
pers.comm.). This has involved the
removal of the entire foredune, with
the current coastal scarp actively
eroding swampy peat deposits,
originally laid down in a swale behind
the foredune. Whilst sea level rise is
likely to be a key driver, long-shore
49
sediment transport and even minor
local subsidence may also have
played a role in driving ongoing
degradation. Significant coastal
retreat has also been documented
at Roches Beach in south-eastern
Tasmania (Sharples 2006).
The vulnerability of coastal systems
to climate change is exacerbated by
increasing human-induced pressures
in the coastal zone. For most of the
past century, coastal regions have
experienced significant growth and
are projected to continue to show
the most rapid population growth
(Nicholls et al. 2007). Australia is
a very coastal society, with more
than 80 per cent of the population
living within 50 km of the coastline
(PMSEIC Independent Working
Group 2007). Coastlines that are
subject to development have a lower
capacity to adapt to changes in sea
level, because they are no longer in
their natural state of being dynamic
and highly mobile. In addition, if
human responses to rising sea
levels are to defend the coast with
artificial structures such as sea walls,
the existing potential for natural
shoreline adjustment to the changing
conditions will be further reduced.
Predicted impacts on
marine and coastal
ecosystems
Marine systems
The IPCC AR4 identifies that the
most vulnerable marine ecosystems
include the Southern Ocean.
The impacts of increased CO2
absorption by the world’s oceans
are seen as one of the major issues
of increased carbon emissions.
Although some individual species
may benefit from high CO2 and
low pH conditions, it is likely that
acidic oceans will have major impacts
on entire ecosystems. Evidence is
already apparent of its impacts on
the growth and function of many
important planktonic species and at
this stage it is unclear what impacts
the levels of CO2 predicted for the
next 100 years would have on the
Table 6.1 Potential impacts on coastal landforms.
Cliffs and shore platforms
Increase in basal erosion and slumping, leading
to cliff retreat
Increase in coastal landslips
Increase in erosion, particularly on the seaward
side
Effects of more frequent, higher magnitude
storm surges on low-lying coasts
Continued erosion of wide beaches
Complete removal of sand from narrow
beaches
Beaches, spits and barriers
Rapid removal of sand in front of artificial
sea-walls, as soon as wave reflection becomes
common
Undermining and collapse of sea-walls with
shallow foundations
Potential accretion if longshore sand supply
outstrips seaward transport
Progressive erosion of soft clay-gravel shores
Coastal dunes
Undercutting and erosion once wave attack
reaches the backshore zone
Increased exposure of sand to prevailing winds
likely to initiate dune movement inland
Submergence of the present intertidal zone
Intertidal areas
Erosion of salt-marshes and landward
migration of coastal ecosystems
50
life cycles of multicellular organisms,
and proceeding trophic impacts on
the food web.
Possible impacts that have been
identified for Tasmanian marine
systems include a decrease in
marine productivity, which will
again impact on food chains. The
southern extension of warmer
waters will cause a southward shift
in species distributions. Warmer
ocean temperatures in Tasmania
now support species that were not
viable due to cold water winter
temperatures. Ecosystems that are
usually in more temperate regions
are shifting southward, and many of
Tasmania’s endemic species have
a limited capacity to adapt to such
change.
Along with these changes is the
increase in alien species. Alien
species in the marine environment
can simply migrate with the warming
conditions from more northern
areas or be introduced as plankton
through ballast discharge. Already
there are observable changes
in faunal assemblages within the
Tasmanian marine environment,
not only impacting abundance of
local organisms but also resulting
in habitat alteration. An example
of southward migration is the
Centrostephanus rodgersii (sea
urchin), which is now self established
in Tasmania, presumably by larval
transport by the EAC. Outbreaks
are known to cause barrens directly
affecting ecosystems that are vital
for significant fisheries such as the
abalone industry. The urchin is now
Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems
Predicted temperature rise will lead to a reduction in winter
sea-ice coverage in Antarctic waters. Krill thrives in the sea
ice and any loss will reduce the amount of food available
to whales. Migratory whales would have to travel farther
south to reach food-rich areas, needing more energy
for longer migration journeys and suffering from
shorter feeding seasons. (Photo: Drew Lee).
able to produce viable offspring in
waters above a winter minimum
of 12°C. Warming of eastern
Tasmanian waters now contribute to
a self-sustaining population (Johnson
et al. 2005)
Observable range extension has
been identified for phytoplankton
species including Noctiluca scintillans.
Formerly only recorded in more
temperate waters, this species
has for the last several years been
observed as an over winter resident
in Tasmanian waters. The European
Shore Crab (Carcinus maenas) is
another introduced predator that
has very recently rapidly extended
its range into east coast Tasmania,
correlating with declines in the
abundance of marine organisms
(Walton et al. 2002).
A decline in marine biodiversity is
highly likely. Tasmania’s kelp forests
(an important fisheries habitat)
are already reducing in distribution
and abundance. Large declines
over the last 50 years have been
attributed to rising sea temperature
(Edyvane 2003; Edgar et al. 2005).
Like kelp, cold water corals also
act as a keystone species, creating
structurally diverse habitat, and are
expected to decline in response to
both warming and increased oceanic
acidity. A major reduction in rainfall
could threaten the unique Bathurst
Channel marine and estuarine
community through reduction in
the depth and transparency of the
halocline (a strong vertical salinity
gradient) and increased penetration
of macroalgae into the sessile
(anchored to
the ocean floor)
invertebrate
zone. There are
likely to be changes
in the distribution and
composition of seagrass
and other macro-algae
communities (Bishop and Kelaher
2007). For example, some seagrass
species are both temperature and
light-sensitive. Photosynthetic
groups such as brown algae and
seagrass may benefit from climate
change by increasing their biomass
through increased CO2 availability
(Guinotte and Fabry 2008).
Significant fisheries rely on Tasmanian
marine ecosystems. CSIRO predicts
that in 50 years, Tasmanian fisheries
can expect a marked reduction
(64%) in catch rates even with
careful management. Important
temperate-water aquaculture
operations may be threatened by
rising sea surface temperatures, and
abalone and rock lobster fisheries
are threatened by the likely effects
of climate change. These species
are extremely important to the
economic sustainability of Tasmanian
fisheries.
The impact of climate change on fish
and krill populations will in turn have
an impact on higher order predators
such as seals, whales, seabirds, and
penguins. Species that rely on
Tasmania as a staging point to exploit
Antarctic krill will be impacted by
ice depletion and resulting loss of
krill abundance. Krill-based whale
species are likely to shift in response
51
to declines in krill abundance. Seals
may be impacted by changes in fish
assemblages as well as increased
fisheries pressures, which will lower
food availability.
These issues will in turn impact
the ability for seabird populations
with high site fidelity (mostly
procellariiformes) to relocate, though
species with low site fidelity such as
gulls, terns and gannets may be able
to respond to such changes in food
availability. Other potential climate
change impacts for the higher order
species include an alteration of
currents and upwelling areas, which
will affect the foraging behaviour
of seabirds. Also, the expansion of
Australian Fur Seals into southern
islands (Maatsuyker Group), will have
implications for rare New Zealand
Fur Seals that utilise this area as their
primary habitat.
Changes in timing of phytoplankton
production will have implications on
migratory species such as humpback
and southern right whales and
seabirds which may not have the
evolutionary plasticity to adapt.
The changes in timing of migrations
would have an effect on social
Table 6.2 Potential impacts on coastal vegetation
Potential Impacts
Salt intrusion into
freshwater systems
Tasmanian Examples
Riparian huon pine communities on the
Gordon and Pieman Rivers on the west coast
are vulnerable to the effects of salinity
Coastal wetlands exposed to risk of altered
salinity, sediment inputs and nutrient loadings
Coastal rainforest on soft sediments
Tidal surges / inundation
Loss of marsupial lawns (Roberts 2008)
Loss of saltmarsh (Prahalad 2009)
The endangered Southport heath (Epacris
stuartii), with a highly restricted coastal
distribution, has been affected by storm surges
Storm surges / salt spray
Species and ecosystems
that favour new climate
conditions may outcompete other vegetation
Increased seafog events that trap salt-laden
air have led to widespread death of coastal
eucalypts in a number of regions of Tasmania
(Maria Island, north coast) in recent years.
Marram grass out-competing native grasses
saltmarsh may migrate inland if suitable habitat
is available
Reduction in area of beach grasslands and
beach sedgelands.
loss of frontline beach foredune shrubland
communities such as coast beardheath
(Leucopogon parviflorus) shrubland.
loss of coastal communities such as sandy
beaches and dunes, coastal wetlands and
saltmarshes where they are bounded by
environments not conducive to landward
migration
Loss of coastal habitat
marsupial lawns - however the community
appears is capable of establishing within an
eroding beach environment. eg Hannet Inlet in
WHA
coastal tussock grasslands in dune systems
are expected to be reduced. This will put
threatened species and restricted distribution
species found only on coastal dunes at risk.
In north-west Tasmania these include Coast
speedwell Veronica novae hollandiae and
Stackhousia spathulata.
52
structure (cohorts). Low fecundity
makes whales highly sensitive to
climate change, especially as many
populations are still recovering from
past levels of heavy exploitation.
Migrating whales are also heavily
impacted on changes much further
afield than Tasmania, such as whales
relying on sea ice extent and krill
availability. Table 6.3 summarises
some projected climate change
impacts on marine ecosystems.
Estuaries
The evidence that has emerged of
catastrophic losses of shell (mollusc)
species over the past 150 years in
shallow, sheltered estuarine waters
of the south-east (Samson and Edgar
2001), highlights the uncertainty
relating to events that have occurred
over long periods of time as well as
changes that continue today. These
losses were previously undetected.
Other changes to species
distributions in estuaries are
predicted. For example, the
Australian grayling (Prototroctes
maraena) is an estuarine-dependent
species that has experienced
declines on Tasmania’s east coast
probably as a result of changes
in freshwater flows to estuaries
(Edgar 2007). The spotted handfish
(Brachionichthys hirsutus) is found
in the Derwent estuary with
an estimated total population
of 3,000–5,000 individuals. An
increase in water temperature of
1.5º C is likely to put the spotted
handfish outside its climate range
(Edgar 2008). Changes in terrestrial
Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems
Analysing recently obtained saltmarsh vegetation and extent
data for the Pitt Water and Lauderdale areas of Hobart
with old (1975) datasets have indicated that several
saltmarshes at Duckhole Rivulet have undergone
numerous changes over the past three decades caused
by anthropogenic impacts, climate change and sea
level rise. Low saltmarsh plants have replaced taller
long-lived plants as the dominant species, leading to
a change in the vegetation community composition.
In addition extensive areas within the marsh have
become denuded of vegetation with the creation of
salt pans (in the back of the marsh) and degrading
areas (in the middle marsh), and shoreline erosion.
(Photo: Vishnu Prahalad).
runoff driven by changes in rainfall
patterns and extreme storm events,
are all likely to put estuarinedependent species under threat.
Other concerns include changes in
estuarine fisheries and habitats, and
increased vulnerability from marine
pests and weeds.
Inundation of low-lying areas around
Tasmanian estuaries could impact
saltmarshes, wetlands and intertidal
sandflats (important wading bird
habitat). For example, inundation
around the Derwent Estuary could
potentially impact saltmarshes,
wetlands and 1,000 ha of intertidal
sandflats (Whitehead 2009).
Table 6.3 Potential impacts on the marine environment
Physical climate change
indicator
Increased sea surface
temperatures
Coastal systems
The Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC AR4)
identified that coasts and low-lying
areas are highly vulnerable to the
potential impacts of climate change
over coming decades due to their
exposure to climate change and sea
level rise (Nicholls et al. 2007). The
report also identified that coastal
systems are naturally dynamic
with some coastal systems more
vulnerable than others. Coastal
wetland ecosystems and saltmarshes
are considered particularly
Potential impact
Southward retreat of endemic habitats,
keystone species and faunal assemblages,
movement limited by southern coastline and
habitats.
Increased growth rates and earlier maturity of
some fish and squid species.
More favourable conditions for the
establishment of introduced marine pests
Potential loss of cold water corals and
important structural habitats.
Increased oceanic acidity
Directly impact calcification rate of key marine
organisms such as coccolithophores, pteropods
More energy required to construct shells
Fish find it more difficult to transport oxygen
when their tissues become more acidic and
their growth slows
Alterations to the timing and location of wind
driven upwelling
Changes in zonal winds
Changes to foraging areas for marine
predators
Potential changes to larval transport system
53
Climate change is predicted to have significant impacts
on subantarctic penguins, particularly through changes
to their food supply and through loss of breeding areas.
Researchers studying King Penguins have found that
warm-water events negatively impact adult survival
and breeding success. (Photo: Jennie Whinam).
vulnerable.
Other systems
have a higher adaptive capacity
because of their naturally dynamic
nature and ability to accrete new
sediments.
The modifications to coastal
conditions likely to be brought
about by climate change will have a
major impact on the higher order
species. The Bass Strait Islands are an
important habitat for marine species,
but inundation by rising sea levels
and increased storm surges is likely
to result in a reduction in breeding
areas for seals and seabirds. Coastal
nesting of species such as penguins,
terns, gulls and petrels and storm
petrels will be impacted by sea level
rise, an increase in the formation
of steep dune walls, which will limit
access, and submergence of low-lying
islands and important roosting areas
during storm surges. The impacts
will also affect seals, with a large
increase in stochastic pup mortality
on low-lying breeding colonies such
as Reid Rocks. Breeding areas may
have to shift in response to changes
in upwelling due to changes in wind
patterns.
Coastal vegetation is exposed to a
complex of interacting processes
triggered by climate change, including
biological and ecological pressures
interacting with introduced weeds,
pests and pathogens, habitat
fragmentation, land use and
coastline change. Changes in
coastal geomorphology can have
profound impacts on availability
of different habitats on the coast.
Table 6.2 provides some examples
of potential changes in coastal
vegetation.
Tasmania’s subantarctic
islands - Macquarie Island
Climate change is predicted to be
most pronounced at high latitudes
(Meehl et al. 2007), and will directly
impact on the flora and fauna of
subantarctic islands (Barnes et al.
2006). Macquarie Island Nature
Reserve is the key Tasmanian
subantarctic natural asset potentially
at risk from climate change impacts.
Macquarie Island Nature Reserve
is one of the most valuable nature
reserves in the world, internationally
recognised for its conservation,
geological, ecological and scientific
values. It is a World Heritage Area,
a Biosphere Reserve, and is listed
on the National Heritage Register.
Macquarie Island is situated about
1,500 kilometres south-east of
Tasmania, about half way between
Tasmania and Antarctica. It is the
only island in the world composed
entirely of oceanic crust and rocks
from the mantle, deep below the
earth’s surface. World Heritage listing
of Macquarie Island was principally
based upon the geoscientific values
of the exposed oceanic lithosphere.
As a bedrock geology feature
those values are not considered
54
particularly susceptible to climate
change.
Other features were accepted by
the IUCN as meeting the World
Heritage criterion regarding
superlative natural features, notably
the spectacular steep escarpments
and uplifted palaeo-shorelines,
extensive subantarctic peat beds,
large numbers of lakes, pools and
superlative examples of subantarctic
vegetation (Department of
Environment, Sport and Territories
1996). These features are all
potentially subject to climate change
effects. Perhaps most important
from a geoconservation perspective
are the organosols, and the effect
that any significant loss due to
climate change may have on the
rate of slope processes. Sensitivity
to loss of peat has already been
demonstrated by rabbit-induced
slope failures (Scott and Kirkpatrick
2008).
Macquarie Island has extensive
congregations of wildlife on low-lying
coastal regions, including Royal and
King penguins (especially during the
breeding season), and impressive
colonies of elephant seals. Penguins
are likely to be the most affected
group of seabirds on Macquarie
Island. Four penguin species breed
in the reserve. King Penguins
(~500,000 birds) and Gentoo
Penguins (~3,800 birds) are present
all year round, while the Rockhopper
(~100,000 birds) and Royal Penguins
(~850,000 birds) are present from
September to April. This island is
also critical habitat for a number of
Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Tasmania’s Marine and Coastal Ecosystems
Climate change is already affecting the amount of
squid and fish available for seals to eat. In addition
seals may be affected by loss of habitat due to sea
level rise, and by sea ice loss in the Southern Ocean.
(Photo: Rowan Trebilco).
threatened
seabird species,
including four species of albatross
(three endangered, one vulnerable)
and nine species of petrels (three
endangered, two vulnerable and
one rare species), all of which may
be susceptible to changes in food
availability and foraging areas.
Since 1994, the population of the
wandering albatross on Macquarie
Island has remained stable, at
approximately 10 breeding pairs
each year. However recent declines
in the number of chicks hatched
and fledged are a cause for serious
concern for the long-term survival of
this population. The World Wildlife
Fund has noted that increasing air
temperatures over the Southern
Ocean since the 1960s has coincided
with a decrease in the abundance
of the wandering and black-browed
albatross, both of which breed in
Australian waters. Warmer waters
are more nutrient-poor than cooler
waters and the success of seabird
feeding has been correlated with
instances where a high degree of
mixing between colder deeper
nutrient-rich water and warmer
nutrient-poor surface water occurs
(WWF 2008).
Other likely major climate change
impacts on values include the
significant impact of sea level
rise on the coastal terrace, with
consequences for the giant bull kelp,
thousands of breeding penguins
(including the endemic royals) and
seals (including the listed threatened
elephant seals), all of which are
restricted to breeding on the coastal
terraces/beaches.
Rabbit breeding has significantly
increased from producing a single
successful litter per year to 2-3
litters per year, as the burrows are
no longer flooded regularly. This has
resulted in widespread devastation
on the slopes and to the flora;
a shifting prey base, with rabbits
plentiful across the island, which
has led to changes in the nutrient
cycle for plants; the spread of bird
predators away from traditional food
sources (rookeries, seal colonies)
with consequent impacts on
burrowing bird species, aggravated
by the loss of vegetation cover.
A combination of drier conditions
and rabbit impacts has resulted
in a widespread increase in the
herbaceous plant species buzzy
burr (Acaena magellanica) on
Macquarie Island, a change that
has also been observed on the
Kerguelen archipelago. While this
species is native to subantarctic
islands, it tends to cover vast areas
in a dense sward of vegetation,
outcompeting other species by
either physically covering the
plant or making establishment
of other species difficult.
There is a greater risk that
weed species will establish from
the accidental importation of
seed propagules. Dock (Rumex
crispus)(now an invasive species
55
on subantarctic Marion Island) and
sweet vernal grass (Anthoxanthum
odoratum), both agricultural weed
species, have already been removed
from known single populations
(Copson and Whinam 2001). The
isthmus, with the entire associated
station infrastructure required for
conservation management, is likely
to be inundated in the future as a
consequence of sea level rise, with
a reported increase in sea surges
during recent storms.
Azorella cushion (Azorella
macquariensis) is an endemic keystone
species of fjaeldmark on Macquarie
Island. There has been major dieback
in the Azorella during 2009/10, with
up to 90% of affected areas dead.
It is not yet clear as to what has
caused the dieback, but is likely to
be a combination of environmental
stresses - such as drier conditions
and increased rabbit numbers - and
a possible pathogen. (Photo: Julie
McInnes).
7.
Responding to Climate Change
The Department of Primary
Industries, Parks, Water and
Environment (DPIPWE) will
continue to assess and monitor
the impacts of climate change on
natural values, and will concurrently
develop a range of adaptation
strategies aimed at building
ecosystems resilience. Resilience
is defined as the ability of natural
systems to recover or “bounce
back” from natural disturbances
(Walker et al. 2006). Building
resilience into natural systems will
allow environmental and climatic
variability to buffer the impacts of
climate change, and will involve the
maintenance of habitats, landscape
and ecological connectivity (Manning
2007).The need to increase the
resilience of our natural systems
has been identified in many climate
change adaptation approaches (e.g.
NRMMC 2004, Steffen et al. 2009,
Heller and Zavaleta 2009), with
the maintenance of biodiversity
considered critical (Peterson et al.
1998).
This preliminary assessment will
guide the initial formulation of policy
responses, including monitoring
strategies and adaptive management
responses. Planning for uncertainty
will be a key aspect of adaptation
approaches, with an emphasis on risk
management.
involve a range of organisations and
partners, along with the broader
Tasmanian community. In particular
the Tasmanian Climate Futures
Project, available in 2010, will assist
in refining climate projections
for Tasmania to enable a better
understanding of regional variability
of the potential climate impacts in
order to inform risk assessments
and the development of scenario
planning and adaptation approaches
at more local scales.
TasFACE is investigating the effects of
elevated CO2 and temperature on a
species-rich temperate grassland at
Pontville in southern Tasmania. Free-Air
Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE)
is a method used by researchers that
raises the concentration of CO2 in a
specified area and allows the response
of plant growth to be measured.
The temperature is raised by 2°C
with infrared lamps. The experiment
has been running for eight years
and already there have been
some significant changes
detected. The results
also have implications
for agriculture in
Tasmania.
Mitigation and
adaptation
The National Climate Change Strategy
2004-2007 (NRMMC 2004) has
identified that adaptation approaches
will be necessary to complement
mitigation measures to reduce
Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions.
However, it should be noted that the
IPCC has identified that adaptation
approaches may only be effective at
scenarios where warming is limited
to <2-3°C (Fischlin et al. 2007).
The Council of Australian
Governments (COAG) identified
that a range of values including
natural ecosystems would benefit
from early regional adaptation
measures. Adaptation reduces
the vulnerability of the natural
environment to the potential
impacts of climate change by
building resilience. Increasingly the
Improved knowledge on the
projected impacts of climate change
on our natural values will come from
many sources including systematic
monitoring and research, risk
assessments and modeling, and will
56
Responding to Climate Change
emphasis is on ecosystem-based
approaches to adaptation that
integrate the use of biodiversity
and ecosystem services into overall
adaptation strategies (Secretariat
of the Convention on Biological
Diversity 2009).These approaches
include sustainable management,
conservation and restoration of
ecosystems. The World Bank has
recently stated that ecosystembased approaches to mitigation and
adaptation should be an essential
pillar in national strategies to address
climate change (World Bank 2009).
Principles for managing
natural assets against
the impacts of climate
change
Some key adaptation management
principles that have been recognised
in international and national
adaptation approaches are described
below.
Maintain and protect wellfunctioning ecosystems
The maintenance of biodiversity is
one simple but effective means of
maintaining ecosystem function and
building resilience into ecosystems.
Conservation planning at a
landscape-scale that allows for the
protection of ecological function
and the associated ecosystem
services would prioritise the value of
large, intact, healthy areas of native
vegetation. In the future, maintaining
the adaptability of ecosystems may
become a key management goal
under climate change scenarios
(Manning 2007), along with
“minimising the loss” (Dunlop and
Brown 2008).
Increase the protection of
habitat
Conserving natural terrestrial,
freshwater and marine ecosystems
and restoring degraded ecosystems
is essential to climate change
approaches. Protecting existing
ecosystems and a diversity of
habitats is a fundamental adaptation
approach. In the face of the
uncertainty of the specific impacts
of climate change, protection of
a diversity of habitats provides
heterogeneity that acts as an
insurance policy.
The development of the National
Reserve System (NRS) has been
identified as a priority climate
change adaptation approach for the
protection of Australia’s biodiversity
(Dunlop and Brown 2008),
embracing the CAR reserve design
principles of comprehensiveness,
adequacy and representativeness
(JANIS 1997). Linking protected
area establishment with off-reserve
conservation efforts is a key action
identified in Australia’s Strategy for the
National Reserve System 2009-2030.
Tasmania has a world-class reserve
system that covers more than
40% of the state. All Tasmanian
bioregions have reached the
National Reserve System (NRS)
Direction for Comprehensiveness,
which aims to have examples
of at least 80% of the number
57
of extant ecosystems in each
bioregion in the NRS. However
Tasmania has one bioregion that
does not meet the NRS target to
have 10% of its area in reserves.
At the ecological community
scale, Tasmania has 8% of its 145
native vegetation communities at
a reservation level of <10%. The
majority of these communities are
primarily located on private land.
The role of protection measures and
management of private land that
is sympathetic to biodiversity will
be a very important component of
adaptation approaches in Tasmania.
Reduce the impacts of
current threats
Australia’s biodiversity is already
suffering from the impact of a range
of current threats, including habitat
fragmentation - climate change will
exacerbate the existing threats as
well as being an additional threat in
its own right. Minimising the impacts
of existing threats in both protected
areas and the broader landscape is
a key adaptation principle (Dunlop
and Brown 2008). Minimising the
impacts of existing threats has been
suggested as the only practical largescale adaptation approach for marine
ecosystems (Robinson et al. 2005).
Natural disturbance regimes
including floods, wildfires, and storm
events are predicted to change
and intensify under climate change
scenarios. Proactive management
may help reduce the impacts. For
example, controlled burning and
other techniques could be used to
Monitoring in buttongrass plots established in 1986 on the Propsting
Range in Western Tasmania. This is one of several mountain ranges
in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area where longterm data is being used to monitor the impacts of climate
change on the vegetation of mountain tops. This project
is being undertaken in conjunction with the University of
Tasmania. (Photo: Mick Brown)
resilience
and
allowing
‘space for
nature to
self-adapt’
(Mansergh and
Cheal 2007).
Active interventions
reduce
the potential impacts of catastrophic
wildfires, particularly on firesensitive native vegetation such as
Tasmania’s unique conifer and alpine
communities. However, there is
likely to be a reduced safe window
of opportunity for fuel reduction
burning to be implemented.
Maintain viable, connected
and genetically diverse
populations
The movement of species between
habitat patches is vital for many
species, and will become increasingly
so as the climatic envelope of many
species shifts with changing climatic
conditions. This movement can
occur on many scales ranging from
local to regional to continental, and
the habitat can be continuous or in
the form of disconnected stepping
stones. Appropriate levels of
landscape connectivity to allow for
species and plant communities to
migrate to more favourable habitats
in response to climate change, and
to allow for recombinations of
species assemblages, is an important
strategy for building ecosystem
Rehabilitation of habitat,
restoration and revegetation will
all need to be actively considered
as part of our climate change
preparation and adaptation
approaches. These strategies can be
used to extend and buffer existing
habitat and to restore ecological
connectivity where it is seen to be
advantageous. Restoration of riparian
zones provides particularly effective
ecological returns (Jones et al. 2007).
However, planning for ecosystem
restoration must now consider the
effects of climate change; otherwise
there may be failures in the mediumto long-term due to changing
conditions. For example, the
regeneration of forests after logging
must use appropriate provenances
and species for the anticipated
climatic conditions. Translocations
may become critical for some
ecosystems such as low-lying islands
that are threatened by sea level rise
and species on mountain tops that
may have no habitat to migrate to.
One particular facet of Tasmania’s
active intervention approaches to
climate change is the Millennium
Seed Bank Project. The Royal
Tasmanian Botanical Gardens, in
58
partnership with DPIPWE, are
participants in this international
conservation project, led by Kew
Gardens in the UK, that aims to
provide an “insurance policy” against
the extinction of plants in the wild
by storing seeds for future use. The
construction of a Seed Bank facility
is under way. The project aims to
collect seed from most of Tasmania’s
rare and threatened flora, including
plant species identified as potentially
at risk from climate change.
Monitoring the impacts
of climate change on
key natural assets
Monitoring is an integral part of
managing natural values in the light
of climate change. It is needed to
detect change, trends, and trends in
condition of natural assets and to
identify thresholds for management
actions for active crisis intervention
for priority assets. Monitoring
will inform land managers (and
researchers) on the adoption of
appropriate adaptive management
strategies in the face of climate
change.
A review of current monitoring data
and pre-existing vegetation datasets
that might be suitable for monitoring
the impacts of climate change has
been undertaken for Tasmania
(Brown 2009a), with a more detailed
assessment for the Tasmanian
Wilderness World Heritage Area
(Brown 2009b).
Responding to Climate Change
8.
Glossary of Terms
Adaptation
Biodiversity
Climate
Adjustment in natural or human
systems over time to a new or
changing environment, including
anticipatory and reactive adaptation,
private and public adaptation, and
autonomous and planned adaptation.
Various types of adaptation can be
distinguished, including anticipatory,
autonomous and planned adaptation:
The variability among living
organisms from all sources such as
terrestrial, marine and other aquatic
ecosystems and the ecological
complexes of which they are part. It
encompasses diversity within species,
between species and of ecosystems.
It is derived from the term ‘biological
diversity’.
‘Average weather’ described in
terms of the mean and variability
of relevant quantities such as
temperature, precipitation and wind
over a period of time ranging from
months to thousands or millions
of years. Climate can also be used
to describe the state, including a
statistical description, of the climate
system. The classical period of time
is 30 years, as defined by the World
Meteorological Organization.
- Anticipatory adaptation –
Adaptation that takes place
before impacts of climate change
are observed (also referred to as
proactive adaptation).
- Autonomous adaptation –
Adaptation that does not
constitute a conscious response
to climatic stimuli but is triggered
by ecological changes in natural
systems and by market or
welfare changes in human
systems (also referred to as
spontaneous adaptation).
- Planned adaptation – Adaptation
that is the result of a deliberate
policy decision, based on an
awareness that conditions have
changed or are about to change
and that action is required to
return to, maintain, or achieve a
desired state.
Biome
A regional ecosystem with a distinct
assemblage of vegetation, animals
and physical environment often
reflecting a certain climate and soil,
and often defined by the dominant
lifeform (e.g. grassland, wetland)
Carbon sink
Pool or reservoir that absorbs or
takes up released carbon from
another part of the carbon cycle.
The four sinks are the atmosphere,
terrestrial biosphere (usually
including freshwater systems),
oceans, and sediments. The process
by which carbon sinks remove
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
is known as carbon sequestration.
The opposite term is carbon source.
Adaptive management
A systematic process for continually
improving management policies
and practices by learning from the
outcomes of operational programs put simply this refers to “learning by
doing”.
59
Climate change
Changes in the state of the climate
system over time due to natural
variability or as a result of human
activity. The United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) defines climate
change as “a change of climate
which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition
to natural variability observed over
comparable time periods.”
Connectivity
The extent to which ecosystems
are joined to each other that allows
organisms to move across the
landscape and interact with each
other (e.g. breeding, gene exchange).
Ecological community
Ecosystem services
Greenhouse gas (GHG)
A naturally co-occurring assemblage
of species that occur in a particular
type of habitat (e.g. forest, alpine).
Also referred to as community.
The benefits derived from
ecosystems. These include
provisioning services such as food
and water, regulating services such
as flood and disease control, cultural
services, such as spiritual, recreational
and cultural benefits, and supporting
services, such as nutrient cycling, that
maintain the conditions for life on
Earth. Also referred to as ecosystem
goods and services.
Gaseous constituents such as water
vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide
(CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O),
methane (CH4) and ozone (O3)
in the atmosphere. These gases,
both natural and anthropogenic, can
absorb and emit radiation at specific
wavelengths within the spectrum of
thermal infrared radiation emitted by
the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere,
and by clouds causing the warming
greenhouse effect.
Ecological processes
Physical, chemical and biological
actions or events that play an
essential part in maintaining
ecosystem integrity. Four
fundamental ecological processes
are the cycling of water, the cycling
of nutrients, the flow of energy, and
biodiversity (as an expression of the
process of evolution).
Ecosystem
A dynamic and complex system of
living organisms and their physical
environment interacting with each
other as a functional unit. The extent
of an ecosystem may range from
very small spatial scales to the entire
Earth.
Ecosystem approach
The ecosystem approach is
a strategy for the integrated
management of land, water and
living resources that promotes
conservation and sustainable use
in an equitable way. At the Fifth
Meeting of the Conference of
the Parties to the Convention
on Biodiversity in 2000 the
ecosystem approach was adopted
as the primary framework for the
implementation of the Convention.
Endemic
Native flora and fauna species that
are naturally restricted to a specified
region or locality. Tasmanian endemic
species are restricted in their
distribution in Tasmania.
Global warming
Gradual increase, observed
or projected, in global surface
temperature, referred to as the
global temperature, as one of the
consequences of the enhanced
greenhouse effect, which is induced
by anthropogenic emissions
of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere.
Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change 4th
Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)
The Fourth Assessment by Working
Group II of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC
AR4) is an assessment of current
scientific understanding of the
impacts of climate change on natural,
managed and human systems, and
the capacity of these systems to
adapt and their vulnerability.
Mitigation
A human intervention to reduce
the sources or enhance the sinks of
greenhouse gases.
Natural values
This term covers the range of
biodiversity and geodiversity native
to a given area.
60
Glossar y of Terms
Novel climate
Resilience
Future climate lacking a modern
analogue, characterized by e.g. high
seasonality of temperature, warmer
than any present climate globally,
with spatially variable shifts in
precipitation, and increase in the risk
of species reshuffling into future noanalog communities. Novel climates
are projected to develop primarily in
the tropics and subtropics.
The ability of a system to absorb
impacts before a threshold is
reached where the system changes
to a different state (also referred to
as ecological resilience).
Ocean acidification
A decrease in the pH of seawater
due to the uptake of anthropogenic
carbon dioxide.
Refugia
Evolutionary refugia are regions
in which certain types or suites
of organisms are able to persist
during a period in which most
of the original geographic range
becomes uninhabitable because
of climate change. Thus they are
areas reflecting past environmental
regimes and which contain high
numbers of endemic species. The
term may also be used by ecologists
to mean a region where a species
or a suite of species persist for short
periods when large parts of their
habitat become unusable because
of changed conditions e.g. from fire,
drought or flooding.
United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
Increase in the mean level of the
ocean. Eustatic sea level rise is a
change in global average sea level
brought about by an increase in the
volume of the world ocean. Relative
sea level rise occurs where there is
a local increase in the level of the
ocean relative to the land, which
might be due to ocean rise and/
or land level subsidence. In areas
subject to rapid land-level uplift,
relative sea level can fall.
192 countries around the world
have joined an international treaty
that sets general goals and rules
for confronting climate change.
The Convention has the goal of
preventing “dangerous” human
interference with the climate
system. The UNFCCC was one
of three conventions adopted
at the 1992 “Rio Earth Summit.”
The other conventions (the
Convention on Biological Diversity
and the Convention to Combat
Desertification) involve matters
strongly affected by climate change.
Attempts are being made to
coordinate the work of the three
agreements.
Terrestrial ecosystems
Upwelling
A community of organisms and their
environment that occurs on the
landmasses of continents and islands.
Movement of water from depth to
the surface, usually enriching upper
waters with nutrients from deeper
waters.
Sea level rise
61
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Notes
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