Download CLIMATE CHANGE IN MEDITERRANEAN REGION

CLIMATE CHANGE IN MEDITERRANEAN REGION:
Vulnerability and Adaptation Opportunities
Abdeltif EL OUAHRANI
(1)
& Abderrahmane MERZOUKI
(1) (2)
(1) University Abdelmaled Essaâdi, Tétouan, Morocco, (2) Universidad de Granada, Spain
[email protected]; [email protected]
Introduction: Mediterranean features & Climate Change
As a cross boundary issue, Climate Change (CC) is seen as an avoidable challenge for scientists, economists as well as policy makers. Mediterranean region is one of the most vulnerable places in term of CC. It is also extremely vulnerable to global
changes due to it geo-strategic position in the world. Together, global and climate changes affect seriously sustainable development in this region. It is a heterogeneous space embracing both developed and developing countries, with diverse social,
economic and political systems. Though land use intensity and water scarcity are among it main characteristics, it has underwent a long history of intensive anthropogenic activities relied mostly on natural resources. These special features make the
Mediterranean region as model area for integrated research and policies into change-related impacts at global level.
Risks Area
MAJOR
CLIMATIC
TENDENCIES
PHYSICAL
IMPACTS
Ecosystems
Storms (winds)
Global Change
Elevation of sea
surface
temperatures
Variation of marine
currents
Augment/
dimin.
Modification of
average
hydrological
regimes
Floods
precipitation
s
Mitigation of
ecological zones
Agriculture
Tourism
Appearance of new
ecological zones
(wetland)
Industry
Water
Impoverishment of
aquifers
Energy
Modification of river
flows
Mitigation
Soil
Sea level
evolution
SOCIETIES &
THEIR
ACTIVITIES
Modification of
Biodiversity richness
Droughts
Landslides
CONSEQUENCE
S ON
Pedological
impoverishment
Geopolitic
al tensions
Soil erosion
Submersion
Spac
Salinisation (of
soil and water
aquifer)
Figure 3. Foreseeable changes in sea surface temperature in winter (a) and
summer (b) from 2070 to 2099 compared to 1961 to 1990 ( Somot et al., 2007)
Vulnerability Index
Heat waves
Decrease of GWR
CONSEQUENCE
S ON
RESOURCES
e Surface
Loss of
(littoral)
Widening of
inequality (at the
basin and country
scales)
The use of different colours and lines for the arrows serves only to facilitate the appraisal of the links existing
between the major climatic tendencies, physical impacts, consequences on natural resources and effects on
societies. The same applies for the coloured boxes for the impacts and consequences.
Figure 5. Some examples of "chains of impacts" that explain the effects
of major climatic changes on future human activities (IDDRI, 2009).
GWR decrease & SI
(direct & Indirect,
gradual & one-off)
Augment./di
min. air
temperature
Adaptation Opportunities:
Since climate change is a across boundary issue, the adaptation
opportunities are started by a cross boundary Initiatives to discuss
different aspect of climate change in the Mediterranean. Recently
climate change induced networking (water, energy, wildfire, …) could
be seen as fruitful opportunities to build adaptation capacity in the
Mediterranean region which is mostly populated by rural communities
(notable in SERCs) relying mainly on natural resources particularly
sensitive to climate variability. Hence, rural communities seem to have
less option capacities to endure or adapt to climate change impacts.
However, some recent studies on vulnerability and adaptation
capacity to climate changes (Glwadys & Claudia, 2009) showed that
most vulnerable regions to climate change have also higher
adaptation capacity. They seen vulnerability to climate change more
linked to intrinsic social and economical development, and hence an
opportunities to boost development in such regions..
Figure 6. Localisation of adaptation plans/strategies and projects (IDDRI, 2009)
Figure 4. Impact (Decrease of GWR), Vulnerability Index (VI) and sensitivity Index
(SI) of groundwater resources (GWR) for the example of the Mediterranean region
and the ECHAM4 A2 scenario in the 2050s (Döll, 2009). The global maps of
vulnerability to the impact of decreased groundwater recharge in the 2050s
revealed highest vulnerabilities and sensitivity Index in the North African-rim of the
Mediterranean Sea.
Figure 7. Concentrating Solar Power for Europe, Middle East and North Africa – A
Roadmap to 2050 http://www.german-renewable-energy.com
The earth receives an incredible supply of solar energy – the sun provides enough
energy in one minute to supply the world’s energy needs for a full year. In one day it
provides more energy than our current population would consume in 27 years
(Middle East Electricity: http://www.middleeastelectricity.com/ )
North Africa alone could
provide the EU with 700,000
GW-hours
per
year
of
electricity by 2050 through an
interconnected electric grid,
according to the European
Commission's
DirectorateGeneral for Energy and
Transportation (Egypt tries
Concentrating Solar Power
http://www.metimes.com ). By
2050, twenty power lines with
5000 MW capacity could be
developed, each providing
about 15 % of the European
electricity demand by solar
imports (Trans-Mediterranean
Interconnection
for
Concentrating Solar Power
http://www.dlr.de )
Figure 2. Annual mean changes of the surface air temperature (K; left
column) and precipitation (mm/day; right column) for the end of the 20th
century, simulated by the LMDZ AGCM with stretched grids over the
Mediterranean Sea. From top to bottom are three climate Models for the
IPCC-A2 emission scenario as given by three different global coupled
climate models, i.e. IPSL, CNRM and GFDL, respectively (Ulbrich et al., in
press).
(4Degrees & Beyond) Two IPCC emission scenarios (SRES: A2 &
B2) are most likely will characterise the Mediterranean climate
change. For the last third of the 21st century, the summer season
likely will records a 6oC in A2 and above 5oC in B2 (max warming in
northern-rim regions), while in winter the projected temperature rise
is about 1 to 2oC (max warming in southern-rim inland regions).
CO
N
CL
US
IO
N
Figure 1. GHG emissions and temperature increase at the global scale
according to the different SRES scenarios (Source: IPCC, 2007).
Precipitation regimes show uniform decrease all over the
Mediterranean zones. However, the seasonal quantity of showers
will increase in both northern and western regions for A2 and B2. On
the other hand, A2 scenario shows sever decrease in precipitation
compared to B2 (De Castro et al., 2004)
After development of more reliable scenarios that predicted the impacts of global warming, the Fourth Assessment
Report of the IPCC (2007) concluded that even with stringent mitigation efforts, climate change impacts is unavoidable.
Therefore, investing in adaptation options become crucial mainly in the post-2012 negotiations. To start, we need to
improve our scientific knowledge assessing vulnerability ´through indexing sensitivity and adaptability potentials in order
to fostering pragmatic adaptation strategies applicable to various scales. This poster attempts to urge all stakeholders in
Mediterranean regions, to work in close synergy mainly north-south partnership, to avoid local and therefore global
warming of 4Degrees and Beyond meanwhile reducing the cost of climate change adaptation. Investing in adaptation
options “now” becomes crucial to success in the post-2012 negotiations and beyond.
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©NASA
Further Reading & References
De Castro M., C. Gallardo, and S. Calabria, 2004. Regional IPCC Projections until 2100 in the Mediterranean Area. In Environmental
Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000-2050, Chap 5, p.75-90, Antonio Marquina (ed) NATO Science Series: IV Earth and Environmental
Sciences. ©2004 Kluwer Academic publisher ISBN 1-4020-1984-3, Printed in the Netherlands
Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo and Claudia Ringler, august 2009. Mapping South African Farming Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change and
Variability. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (IFPRI) Discussion Paper 00885, A Subnational Assessment.
Environment and Production Technology Division
IDDRI, May 2009. The Future of the Mediterranean: from impacts of climate change to adaptation issues.
IPCC, 2007a. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L.
Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
Meisen P. & L. Hunter, 2007. Renewable Energy Potential of the Middle East, North Africa vs. The Nuclear Development Option. GENI:
Global Energy Network Institute.
Döll Petra, 2009. Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: a global-scale assessment. Environ.
Res. Lett. 4 (2009) 035006 (12pp)
Somot S., Sevault F., Déqué M., Crépon M., 2007. 21st century climate change scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled AtmosphereOcean Regional Climate Model. Global and Planetary Change, 63, p. 112-126.
Ulbrich U., W. May, L. Li, P. Lionello, J.G. Pinto, and S. Somot, (in press, Elsevier) Chapter 8: The Mediterranean Climate Change under
Global Warming.