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NICKEL DISTRICT CONSERVATION AUTHORITY Climate Change Planning Session Report June 5, 2009 Dr. Liette Vasseur and Emily McMillan Bob Rogers, Chair, N.D.C.A. Paul Sajatovic, Watershed Management Services Director, N.D.C.A. NDCA Climate Change Planning Session Report Prepared By: Dr.Liette Vasseur and Emily McMillan Bob Rogers, Chair, NDCA Paul Sajatovic, Watershed Management Services Director, NDCA Executive Summary Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat trapping gases. These emissions come from many activities and land uses, but mainly come from burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas.) Climate related changes are being observed and scientifically documented globally, nationally, and locally. This includes the watersheds of the Nickel District Conservation Authority (NDCA) within the Greater Sudbury community. In March, 2009 the NDCA General Board approved a Climate Change Position Paper entitled, “Positioning the Nickel District Conservation Authority within the City of Greater Sudbury in a Future Climate.” Various action items are included in the position paper (see Appendix E.) The top priority is to create the Sudbury Climate Change Consortium (CGSCCC) to develop and implement adaptation and risk management strategies in the community. To that end, the NDCA convened a planning workshop on June 5, 2009. The session was facilitated by Dr.Liette Vasseur, VicePresident of Research, Brock University, and a former member of the NDCA General Board. Participants at the session included NDCA members and staff, and senior staff from various departments within the City of Greater Sudbury. The planning session offered an opportunity for the NDCA to begin discussions with its member municipality on issues of mutual concern related to climate change adaptation and risk management in the community. This workshop was the first step by the NDCA in reaching out to many other agencies and organizations in the community with a role in climate change adaptation. In developing the Consortium, it was vitally important that the first working session be with municipal representatives. The planning session allowed participants to understand the forces that are driving climate change adaptation needs and the importance of thinking strategically about the future impacts and needs. Participants were actively engaged by the facilitator and considered many different scenarios related to how the consortium would be structured and function. 2 Many excellent ideas were generated by all the participants during the session. At the conclusion of the working session it was unanimous that the NDCA, with the support and active engagement from the member municipality, is best positioned to take the leadership role in developing the consortium partnership network. The NDCA has a strong record within the watersheds of using integrated watershed management approaches to find solutions to difficult problems and working collaboratively for the benefit of the watershed residents. The Governance models considered by the participants recognized the importance of a model which fosters and supports opportunities for inter group communication and information exchange. The Planning Session Report prepared by Dr. Vasseur, and her Research Assistant Emily McMillan, summarizes the input received from all the participants. A summary of the Key Outcomes/Findings from the session is as follows: 1. The NDCA, with direct involvement and support from its member municipality, is strategically positioned to lead the Consortium Partnership initiative in the community. 2. General consensus was reached amongst the participants on the structure and operational model for the Sudbury Climate Change Consortium (see Appendix A in the detailed report); over the next four to six months all partners will be actively engaged to create the partnership network. 3. Climate Change adaptation strategies and risk management measures must address impacts on water resources, both quantity and quality; municipal and NDCA infrastructure throughout the community; human health impacts; other stresses in the community, etc. 4. The NDCA can do a number of things now to move this initiative forward by informing, engaging and educating the community at large on climate change. Examples include a web-based information section on the NDCA corporate website, presentations to Community Action Networks around the City, etc. 5. Delaying action until more information/data is available in a number of areas is NOT an option for Greater Sudbury. Strong leadership and clear vision sometimes requires moving forward without all the answers and then actively engaging many individuals and agencies to obtain the information and formulate the answers. 6. The partners must share in developing community wide capabilities such as integrated GIS systems to further efforts in adapting to climate change. 7. Greater Sudbury already has some capacity to adapt to climate change impacts. There is however, an urgent need to understand the strengths and gaps, in particular lack of data, that currently exist in the community to implement adaptation strategies. The NDCA, its member municipality and many other partners must now come together in this consortium to identify the strengths and gaps to ensure a better future for this extremely resilient community. 3 Context and Objective Climate change will impact the watersheds of Greater Sudbury, particularly increasing pressures on the quality and quantity of our valuable water resources. This was one of the main conclusions of studies such as the Case Study on Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Potential Adaptations conducted from 2005-2007 by several partners under the lead of Laurentian University. This project with the addition of other reports were the basis for further discussion that led to the development of the Climate Change Position Paper, “Positioning the Nickel District Conservation Authority within the City of Greater Sudbury in a Future Climate” authored by Liette Vasseur and Emily McMillan for the Nickel District Conservation Authority (NDCA). This position paper was approved in March 2009 by the NDCA Board and was the basis for a planning workshop on June 5, 2009 held with key senior staff from the City of Greater Sudbury. The first action proposed in this position paper was to Initiate a Sudbury Consortium on Climate Change. More specifically, the “NDCA has the capacity to act as a broker to bring together the various partners who have a stake in ensuring the City of Greater Sudbury is able to adapt to climate change impacts. To continue working together, the NDCA would spearhead a consortium, including partners such as: Laurentian University, Greater Sudbury Development Corporation, Sudbury and District Health Unit, Cooperative Freshwater Ecology Unit, Northern Ontario School of Medicine, MIRARCO, Government of Canada, Government of Ontario, Science North, Vale Inco, Xstrata Nickel, Greater Sudbury Utilities, EarthTech, Golder and Associates, Cambrian College, Collège Boréal, Greater Sudbury Chamber of Commerce, and EarthCare”. It is clear that only through the cooperation of all major stakeholders can climate change adaptation strategies be developed and implemented for Greater Sudbury watersheds. The main objective of the planning session on June 5, 2009 was to work on this first action item and discuss the main components of this new Consortium. DISCUSSION AND OUTCOMES Appendix B and C include the main discussion that occurred with the participants during the planning session. Considering the objective of this planning session, the following paragraphs summarize the general outcomes. 4 a) Recognition of Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the City of Greater SudburyThe participants understood very well the potential impacts of climate change for the watersheds and the community at large, especially in terms of extreme events leading to flooding, ice storms, etc. Water was identified as being a driving force that will also have impacts on the infrastructure, health and emergency measures. All felt a need to start planning and work on potential adaptation strategies. Discussion of the Peterborough flood event (July, 2004) helped focus on issues that could happen in Greater Sudbury. b) ChallengesThere was however some discussion on the lack of local data limiting the speed at which actions can be taken. Lack of data or information was clearly identified as a problem by the participants. In addition, the need for a better integrated GIS system with all partners was mentioned on several occasions. It would be important as a future action item of the Consortium to define the elements of this GIS system and start gathering the information as soon as possible. Waiting for this to move ahead in terms of developing adaptation strategies is not effective. This approach can lead to lack of initiatives and would not resolve the issues. In addition, it is clear that education must be maintained to help people understand the challenges and importance to adapt to climate change. c) ConsortiumThere was a strong consensus that the Consortium must be created in order to move forward the agenda of climate change adaptation. The CGSCCC should be approved and empowered by City Council with the NDCA designated as the lead organization. d) Resource NeedsJoint funding and resources should come from the City and Consortium partners through in-kind and dollar contributions. It is also proposed that applications to HRSDC and EI be made for support staff. A project manager is needed for the Consortium to have positive impact on the community. Initially a budget of $75,000 over two years is considered appropriate. 5 These are the elements of the Consortium model being proposed. i)Composition- The Consortium should include the following groups: NDCA (1) CGS(Earthcare, Emergency services, water wastewater, roads and drainage, social planning, social services) (3) Sudbury and District Health Unit (1) Laurentian University and Cambrian and Boreal College (3) Chamber of Commerce (1) Hydro utilities (1) VETAC (1) Representative from each school board (4) Industry (1) The suggestion is to limit the board to a maximum of 14-16 participants. A board larger than the suggested size usually leads to confusion and difficulties in making decisions and reaching consensus. Additional people can be added in the working groups in function of the needs such as MNR, MOE, other NGOs, etc. ii)Decision Making- It was clear that a consensus driven board would be the most acceptable way to deal with these issues. Voting cannot represent the full range of acceptance. It is suggested that the meetings be open to the public. iii)Reporting Structure- The CGSCCC Board will report to City Council through the NDCA. The consortium would have working groups for the main issues identified. It is suggested that two working groups be formed: 1) GIS system integration and 2) communication / education activities. A model similar to that of the Healthy Community Cabinet should be used. This will allow interaction between the Consortium and other community groups as required on key issues. iv)First Actions Items1) Proceed with the NDCA “quick win” initiatives a) Electronic Library b) Presentations for Community Action Networks and schools c) Presentation to City Council in early Fall 2009. 2) Request approval and support from City Council. 3) Develop a budget and find funding sources for staffing and other costs. 6 4) Appoint the members of the Consortium Board. 5) Form the working groups – (a) GIS system integration, and (b) communication/education activities. v)Time Frame1) September, 2009 – Initial Partners committed to Consortium Board. 2) October, 2009 – Terms of Reference for the Consortium Board drafted. 3) October, 2009 – Approval of CGSCCC by City Council. 4) November, 2009 – Initial meeting of the CGSCCC. 5) January, 2010 – Public Information sessions inaugurated. (June 28, 2009) 7 Appendix A Sudbury Climate Change Consortium A Collaborative Initiative of the Nickel District Conservation Authority Numerous agencies and organizations with a focus on one or more aspects of Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management currently exist in Greater Sudbury. Most are very active within their own areas of interest, but much great work is being done in virtual isolation. Opportunities for intergroup communication, information exchange and collaboration are vitally important. A Sudbury Climate Change Consortium is in the formative stages to bridge these gaps allowing the partners to work together collaboratively for the benefit of our watershed residents, water resources and infrastructure. The Nickel District Conservation Authority (NDCA) has taken the lead in this community action. Other such models exist in the community in terms of this type of successful operational partnership. Examples include the Vegetation Enhancement Technical Advisory Committee (VETAC); the City of Greater Sudbury’s Healthy Community Cabinet; the Greater Sudbury Biodiversity Partnership, etc. The Climate Change Consortium will allow information sharing, wider participation on group activities, and heightened public awareness and education on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in the Nickel District watersheds, The Sudbury Climate Change Consortium will have a steering group. Membership is not exclusive and new partners will be welcomed and encouraged over time. The Nickel District Conservation Authority (www.nickeldistrict.ca), with direct involvement of our member municipality the City of Greater Sudbury, is well positioned to lead the consortium. The consortium is to be formed and active by the end of 2009. Our Vision The Sudbury Climate Change Consortium will: Oversee and coordinate the work of community agencies and organizations to develop sound climate change adaptation strategies for the community and residents. Engage the community in dialogue on climate change adaptation and mitigation. Champion, locally, provincially and nationally, the leading edge work being done in Greater Sudbury in terms of developing climate change adaptation strategies. Seek opportunities for joint projects and partnership collaborations. 8 Support and encourage local research, projects and activities. Feed into regional, provincial and national processes as appropriate. Report back to the partners and the community on a regular basis. Actions to Date Greater Sudbury Case Study: Promoting community sustainability through adaptive responses to socio-economic and risk assessments of the potential impacts of climate change scenarios in a natural resource-based, mid-sized Canadian Shield community (Principal Investigator -Dr. Liette Vasseur, formerly at Laurentian University, Sudbury - April, 2007) Positioning the Nickel District Conservation Authority (NDCA) within the City of Greater Sudbury in a Future Climate (Climate Change Position Paper March, 2009) Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptations in Nickel District Watersheds (Presentation to Conservation Ontario Council - April, 2009) Climate Change Partners Planning Session: NDCA and City of Greater Sudbury (June, 2009) Next Steps Develop public resource library on NDCA website by posting relevant information (local, provincial, national, and international) on climate change adaptation and risk assessment management. (Summer, 2009) Develop community based power point presentations dealing with climate change adaptation for use by Community Action Networks in Greater Sudbury. (Summer, 2009) Continuing interaction with the North South Climate Change Network located at Laurentian University, Sudbury. Overview presentation to member municipality to gain support for Consortium Partnership work in Nickel District Watersheds. (September, 2009) Detailed presentation to Greater Sudbury Council at a Strategic Planning session with focus on climate change adaptation and risk management approaches for the community. (Fall, 2009) Considering the enviable position of the City of Greater Sudbury as a designated UN Regional Centre of Expertise on Education for Sustainable Development, the actions and strategies to be acted upon by the Sudbury Climate Change Consortium over the next five to ten years can become a global model as has been the reclamation/re-greening of Sudbury’s natural environment over the last thirty 9 plus years. Appendix B Summary notes of Emily McMillan regarding the Planning Session of June 5, 2009 1. Liette: Taking action on action item one from the position paper. Follow up from the NRCAN project (see Final Report) Sudbury has better capacity to adapt than other municipalities but we have to take action and do so in such a way that the adaptations will be successful. Water (quality and quantity) is a key issue: Temperature has increased over the last 50 yrs and so has precipitation but the rate of evapo-transpiration has also increased, so we are getting drier faster. Also precipitation is not falling in the same way. It will get colder in the winter and hotter in the summer. As it gets drier, the lakes become more acidic. Impacts wetlands which are now covering debris from the mines – loss of those wetlands could lead to more air particulates and also more acidification. Storms may become more frequent, if not stronger. E.g. more freezing rain, more freeze/thaw, more flash floods Warmer, drier conditions will also impact the forest species that can survive, also more forest fires (affects reforestation efforts) 2. Nick (Peterborough): Training in emergency preparedness included info on climate change impacts Flooding was from rainfall, not overflow from the river – the infrastructure failed. ** Need integration of GIS databases among all the consortium and also private sector (ValeInco) along with database of elderly or infirm people who are not mobile – could identify hot spots and people who will require rescue – allow for advance planning and also would save money. **Also need more robust early warning system in the city to predict events 3. Focus Groups 4. Paul reviewed available documents for municipalities Infrastructure report has appendix of climate change scenario for Sudbury – confirmed work that Liette had done Integrated watershed management and climate change (Dr. Dave Pearson) Municipalities are on the front lines 10 Toronto Conservation Authority is ahead of the curve Litigation realities re infrastructure Environment Canada has committed to do a storm analysis, assessment of standards, new dam safety act (design standards are low, maximum probable floods higher now than before therefore current dams are substandard, regional design standards are badly underestimated); dilemma of reaction from the public if standards are raised. Urban storm water committee – whose job is it to collect data and issue warnings re water in urban system before it hits the watercourse Weather data is key component, not in Envt Canada mandate (only storm forecasts) and so can not give MNR or CA data needed in usable and reliable format (currently format is percentages over a really large area – not helpful) no staff to monitor radar to pick up local storm activity, which can develop quickly; also no groundproofing of radar system – development of future plans different issue than current practical use Drinking water: Judy & Sharon: two reports being prepared and have to address climate change and province is looking at that too – identifying data gaps. Will identify local priorities and cost out. Different issues between lake (Ramsey), river (Wanapitei), well fields – microclimates around the various sources – looking at where they should put the money Data collection important but equally important is data management – accessible and updated** gap that could be filled with Nick’s idea of GIS overlays Concern to remember that not everything is a climate change issue (e.g. blue-green algae) 5. Adaptation Have to start moving even as we know we need more data that is localized, small scale If we make all the plans, it won’t matter if people don’t know about it e.g. the elderly person with flooded house needs to know how to get help Two good examples – one from NB on storm surge modelling what would happen Annapolis Royal – where to put the fire station – with a flood they would have been an island and unable to connect. Insurance companies not covering Chamblis because of outdated sewage system – wastewater management considered the key component 10. Yes to consortium but need resources (funding) Vision: That the watershed will be protected, extreme events are managed Mission: prioritizing the actions and champion them Partnership model: 1. like source water protection (offshoot of NDCA) 2. like soil study – technical committee driven by working groups – could be subsumed in first model – NDCA as head organization Members need a stake to be at the table 11 3. champions from government (3 levels), institutional sector (commercial, residential, industrial), and those key people could reach out to other groups (higher level and then constituency groups) 4. many groups around the table suggestion that education sector is important to maintain – ties into creating awareness one communication person decision group has to be a high enough level that they know their organization and can decide – ie not just a representative but someone who can make things happen. – also top down buy-in Balance with keeping group small (12 people max) 5. Healthy Community Cabinet Model – also cross sector, works at policy level, supported by 4 pillars (EMS, Health, water, etc) – smaller working group to move fast Consensus but with specific terms of reference spelling out quorum etc. – needed in order to move forward on contentious issues and have everyone want to move Insurance industry - maybe as a resource, maybe for funding for case studies, give input, are too invested to be a stakeholder, maybe more advisory role Some government departments (MTO) may also be more advisory (e.g. to advise re regulations) Action items: Public awareness – key to buy in Political support Cost evaluation (time and staff, resources) and secure Master plan for CGS within 20 years ??? GIS integrated database Quick wins: electronic library on webpage with all the documentation on climate change (NDCA) and others can send other documents NDCA can create powerpoint with voiceover (amalgamating all the other powerpoints) and give to Community Action Networks to share with members NDCA can report to council what happened today and what next steps are (fall) Make presentation at Strategic planning session of council and staff (NDCA) Final thoughts: Think about calling it extreme event planning instead of climate change which is boring Creating educational piece for children, professional development for teachers Look for internship funding to bring in resources Think and educate at the individual watershed level Bob’s conclusion: Is tons of information on climate change, but is lots of trees and we need to see them as a forest – at the ecosystem, neighbourhood, city scale – all on a scientific basis Continuums: 12 o o o o Substance and process – must have both Reacting and anticipating Experts and public – all must be involved and committed Talking and listening Appendix C Summary of the answer sheets filled by the participants at the Planning Session June 5, 2009 Morning session (i) Is there recognition at the City, N.D.C.A. and in the community that changes in climate are impacting and will more extensively impact natural and man-made systems in the watersheds? Yes, strongly agree ___; agree ___; not sure ___; do not agree Select portion of city staff (generally experts) within the field are aware, NDCA is completely aware, community awareness very low One strongly agree Two not sure (few individuals) Aware but no action What? 1 Thaw/Freeze Where? Roads, Pipes When? Winter 2 Fluctuation in temperature 3 Flash Flood CGS All year Low lying areas Spring/summer/fall 4 Drier weather CGS All year 1 What do we do with the data Not available to public How? Fluctuation in temperature Intense precipitation within a short time period Frost penetrates deeper, not enough protection for vegetation, more movement Data collection, province, environment Canada, develop standards 2 How do we deal with events when it 13 happens 3 Warning more people 4 Emergency preparedness ( $ ) 5 Gap between city, NDCA, community 1 Storm water management 2 Water and waste water 3 tree species 4 flood forecasting, urban and rivers 5 source protection 1 storm water management 2 water, wastewater 3 tree planting 4 flood management 5 lake water quality source protection 1 extreme events 2 design standards, idf curves 3 concerns of lake water lowering impacts on drinking water and aesthetic 4 sewage Roof leaders More monitoring statistics Storm water management reports In development review Design frequencies Throughout city Biodiversity plan Planting mix COOP Unit, NDCA Waterways, dams, sewage, drains Emergency response Dam break analysis plan (NCDA) plan, training people in emergency management NDCA aware but 2005 but no changes Cost and time is curves not updated made – still using 50 main barrier (plus yet, no recognition yr storm event developer at community level design opposition), may need to move to 5 or 10 yr storm event Shorelines, water Concern re docks, Release of trapped users, wells water lines freezing toxic metals; legacy of Sudbury mining history Kelly Lake, Simon May need tertiary Lake (tailings pond), treatment Junction Creek (community concern) (ii) What data do you have or lack to prove the growing impacts of climate change in the watersheds? What do you feel are the priorities to begin developing a strong community based climate change adaptation strategy? 14 What data? 1 GIS database – lack 2 collecting data to develop baseline information 1 forecasting radar, early warning data Where? Information is from various sources, it needs to be compiled and collated into a mainframe for inclusive accessibility and staff to update on a regular basis (staff to support the system) Being able to identify vulnerable areas, people 1 lack of data on watersheds 2 sub watersheds and microclimates near water supplies 1 lack of data on watersheds 2 subwatershed data, Throughout city pervious, impervious surface 1 rainfall to predict Stormwater model idf curves available for urban areas needed 2 need a champion Building code is changing – future standards (snow load, wind, sewage, flooding, water conservation, prevention of direct connections) 3 water budget (tier Not enough water in 2 done) source water the valley in future protection growth scenario (Vale Inco) Private wells also impacted as well as public wells – could What years? Availability? Need modelling Limited 15 impact Health unit (iii) From the perspective of the City and N.D.C.A., what are the current and most likely future impacts from increased extreme weather events in terms of precipitation and climate altering events? What strategies are/will be required to deal with these impacts in the different seasons? What? 1 Roads Where? CGS 2 sewers CGS 3 emergency management 4 solid waste CGS 5 lakes CGS 6 power system 1 municipal property infrastructure, private property damage 2 power outage – evacuation 1 flooding events 2 snow events 1 flooding events 2 snowfall events 3 wind events 1 snow (plowing) and rain in winter When? Basements, lift station Strategies? Emergency preparedness plan for each area Back up, bypassing into lakes CGS Urban centers How? Collapse, washouts Mobilizing staff to pick up waste Blue/green algae, sewage backup Anytime Throughout year Rain events, quicker thaws More variation in events Impacts on roads, operation costs Volunteer org. to get staff to hospitals Dams, pumps Better monitoring and analysis locally 16 to predict local weather, needs more money, operational and capital – need people to do this, data is there 2 more emergency management 3 equipment Public works depot and garages – where are they located 4 need to know what Sudbury Hydro has planned for disaster Also do we have the equipment (ie boats)? Need better communication among the groups Notes GIS database – have all the layers; what areas would need assistance; asap Afternoon session (i) What are the key issues/challenges/opportunities when trying to incorporate future climate change impact scenarios into land use or conservation planning, existing infrastructure management, planning for future development and infrastructure servicing, etc.? Issues 1 GIS data management Challenges Large data gaps Opportunities Increase reliability of data issues 17 2 predict and quantify Large data gaps change 3 ground truthing 4 process and substance 1 lack of data 2 lack of information management 3 lack of funds/commitment to pursue #1 and 2 4 lack of understanding of the implications of not addressing climate change adaptation (human, financial, legal) 5 Develop specific strategies in the OP and various operational plans to monitor and repast in implementation. Will need to fund GIS management/mapping/climate data collection at strategic locations etc to further efforts and results in adapting to climate change 1 Better GIS information Large data and mapping gaps Opportunities for base for city collaboration 2 ability to predict and Past first level of quantify the change understanding how does it effect other levels 3 not ground truthing the Cost of undertaking Interns projects predictions 4 updating of land use At time of official plan planning in official plan review 5 storm water out of Legal and cost sanitary system 1 base data Accurate, current, what Integration format, do we have it 2 current plans Looking at future not past Include climate change and present issues in future plans 3 existing regulations Conflicting objectives Coordination of regulation 4 risk analysis Independent of all Coordination of all data infrastructural sets, testing departments/functions 1 compatibility of Needs to be top down – has City is still growing, can infrastructure – bigger pipes to start with politicians to make changes now into smaller push against developers Review of official plan City has to change standards every 5 years first, then require same of Development charges developers (maybe) 18 (ii) What are some of the specific items/strategies required to enable adaptation planning and implementation in the community for water resources, infrastructure management/protection, etc.? (dollars; better climate data and modelling information; human resources; political support; other tools?) Items/Strategies 1 ground truthing models 2 better integration between operational authorities 1 incorporate as part of regular program planning and strategic planning 1 small microclimate stations and monitoring stations 2 incorporate as part of program planning 3 watershed modelling 1 Leadership and vision 2 automation of data 3 incentives to change 4 resources (funding) 5 education and outreach 1 storm sewer modelling 2 storm water management plans 3 community awareness to lead to political will 4 enforcement of new bylaws Where? Surface watersheds When? Who? Most active resolution at CA or municipal level but level of integration is low (yes to all suggestions above) Needs prov/fed integration Providing tools and systems to cope with climate change Decision makers New standards for development To facilitate development of systems Help people to cope and protect Need to identify the risk (e.g. flood map) ASAP – hopefully before a storm Short term Need more staff ( $) 19 (i) What should the Sudbury Climate Change Consortium look like and how should it function? Under NDCA like Source Water Protection, linked to all difference services (funding, provincial ties, Councillors and city staff, MNR) Vision What do you expect Greater Sudbury be in 20-50 years from now? What will it look like in 20-50 years from now in relation to adaptations to climate change? In 20 years from now, the City of Greater Sudbury and its watershed will be _________ Protected Micro scale watershed (with lakes in mind and with watercourse in mind) GIS and DTM – base data right staffing Go-trains from smaller communities; better transit; smaller cars; bicycle paths; maybe traffic circles (unfortunately?); most likely population growth up to 200 000 (with 4 lane highway from Toronto); Sudbury will be tourist destination; limits on motor boats, more non-motorized recreation; less garbage, more recycling, composting; move back to smaller communities with amenities; fewer, larger, more efficient wastewater plants; new developments built to higher standards Mission What will be the aim of the group in regard to climate change adaptations? The Consortium has for mission to ____________________ lowered risk/increase reliability manage extreme events champion climate change adaptation, improve public safety, develop mitigation strategies protect watershed and people, coordinate organized response establish a plan, guidelines, risk management and analysis – determine where should the money be invested; also mitigation Partnership model Frequency of meetings? ___Quarterly – workshop every 2nd year (x2), quarterly (Feb, June, Sept, Nov)________________ Decisions by Consensus ___everyone agreed_________ or Votes _____________ 20 Draw or write how you see the interactions or the model… NDCA SPA Climate Change Authority Working group of members and technical committee modelled after soils study Insurance industry – a resource or a stakeholder? Are you in agreement with having a consortium? Yes Working Groups – permanent, Task forces - temporary Members would need to have a stake; would need to have a working group or staff to move agenda forward; SSS model; partnership model Who owns this, who carries the cost, what authority does this group have, need direct tie to council and ministry Key stakeholders: NDCA, municipality, health unit, educational institutions (with financial commitment) and buy in from the rest; keep it small so consensus works, finances may mandate who has a vote Composition How many people in the group? ___20-30; steering committee with working groups_________ Who should be in the group? Who? Why? 1City of Greater Sudbury 2 NDCA 3 Ministry of Natural Resources 4 Ministry of the Environment 5 Sudbury and District Health Unit 6 Laurentian University 7 CCARIN 8 Freshwater ecology unit 9 Chamber of Commerce 10 Hydro utilities 11Educational 12Communications 13 CGS (Earthcare, Emergency preparedness, water wastewater, roads and drainage, VETAC, planning, social services – vulnerable individuals) 1 Health Unit Monitoring 2 Hospital Medical 3 utility companies (hydro, gas, phone) 4 communication with media – messaging 21 5 risk managers 1 water and wastewater 2 roads 3 municipality (planning, assets, infrastructure) 4 utilities 5 health unit 6 education (school system – all levels) 7 railways 8 development community 9 fire/police 10 EMS 11 seniors (and different age groups) 12 industry Must be at director level; each group needs a champion; need all the groups that will be impacted, avoid wrong assumptions Needs commitment for staff and time Appendix D List of Participants June 5, 2009 Planning Session Name Organization/Department Bob Rogers Chair, N.D.C.A. Dr. Liette Vasseur Brock University Chantal Mathieu C.G.S., Environmental Services Akli Ben-Anteur C.G.S., Water/Wastewater Services Nick Benkovich C.G.S., Water/Wastewater Services Lynn Fortin C.G.S., Emergency Services Al Bonnis N.D.C.A. Judy Sewell N.D.C.A. (DWSP) Sharon Bennett N.D.C.A. (DWSP) Nels Conroy N.D.C.A., Source Protection Committee John Dennis Vice-Chair, N.D.C.A. Wendi Mannerow C.G.S., Water/Wastewater Services Danielle Braney C.G.S., Capital/Asset Services Robert Falcioni C.G.S., Roads, Drainage & Transportation Emily McMillan Laurentian University Paul Sajatovic N.D.C.A. Bill Lautenbach C.G.S., Growth & Development/Planning Stephen Monet C.G.S., Planning Services Paul Baskcomb C.G.S., Planning Services Cindi Briscoe C.G.S., Community Development (R.C.E.) NOTE: A number of senior City staff could not attend on June 5th. However, they are committed to this initiative and will be actively engaged. 22 Appendix E Climate Change Position Paper Positioning the Nickel District Conservation Authority within the City of Greater Sudbury in a Future Climate by Liette Vasseur, Brock University Emily McMillan, Laurentian University March 2009 For the Nickel District Conservation Authority 23 Table of Contents Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 25 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 26 2. What is Climate Change?.............................................................................................. 28 3. The State of Climate Change in the Nickel District and the City of Greater Sudbury . 30 Current climate.............................................................................................................. 30 Trends ........................................................................................................................... 33 Future scenarios ............................................................................................................ 34 4. Potential Impacts and Current Priorities ....................................................................... 35 a. Impacts on Natural Ecosystems ............................................................................ 35 b. Impacts on the Managed Environment ................................................................. 35 c. Impacts on our Water Resources .......................................................................... 36 5. Building a Community Response to Climate Change .................................................. 37 6. Action Items .................................................................................................................. 38 1. Initiate a Sudbury Consortium on Climate Change: ............................................... 4 2. Protection of Lakes: .............................................................................................. 38 3. Enhancement of Flood Warning System: ............................................................. 38 4. Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Upgrades: .................................................. 38 5. Improved Modelling: ............................................................................................ 39 6. Protect Municipal Drinking Water: ...................................................................... 39 7. Prevent Water-borne Diseases and Contamination: ............................................. 39 8. Public Education: .................................................................................................. 40 8. Conclusion: The Role and Place of NDCA, the City and Other Partners.................... 40 9. Glossary ....................................................................................................................... 41 10. List of Acronyms ....................................................................................................... 42 24 Executive Summary The Nickel District Conservation Authority (NDCA) has been working, through its core programs and Drinking Water Source Protection (DWSP), to assess the potential impacts of climate change on municipal infrastructure and water resources and to determine what actions will be needed to address these impacts in the City of Greater Sudbury. Watershed management has always dealt with dynamic natural systems and processes and now must expand to address the potential impacts of climate change, with special attention paid to issues surrounding drinking water. This Position Paper sets forth the context and background for the challenges that we face as a city regarding climate change and sets out an action agenda focused on protecting the watershed residents. It is critical to acknowledge that climate change will impact our region, particularly increasing pressures on the quality and quantity of our limited water supplies. All citizens of the city will need to be engaged in order to implement the needed actions and activities that will protect our water resources and ensure that our watershed becomes more resilient in order to face the upcoming challenges. These preparations require short, medium and long term planning and all partners must work together to implement strategies for adaptation. With a changing climate, Sudbury can expect warmer summers and winters, with more frequent and severe extreme events, including floods and storms. Changes in seasonal precipitation are uncertain; however, the city is likely to see an increase in precipitation as rainfall. Various sectors of the community will be impacted, including the natural environment, our infrastructure, industries such as tourism and agriculture, and our drinking water. We can expect a decrease in water quality with more algal blooms and lower lake levels, impacts that may be worsened by increased development on waterfront properties. This Position Paper outlines eight key action items needed to be able to protect our watershed resources and residents from the changing climate. These are: integrating climate change into source water protection plans, monitoring and protecting our lakes, upgrading our water and wastewater infrastructure, enhancing our flood warning system, increasing public education, conducting scientific modelling, and working to prevent water-borne diseases and contamination. In uncertain economic times, municipal leaders must look for opportunities to boost the economy as well as considering protection of the environment. Investing in our infrastructure and in education fulfils both needs and is an investment in our future. Clean and healthy drinking water requires protecting its sources, which in these changing times requires planning and adaptation strategies. The community is depending on its elected and non-elected leaders to take climate change issues into consideration and to take action while there is still time. Greater Sudbury has proven itself to be a leader on the world stage in terms of environmental restoration. It can do so again in terms of environmental protection. 25 1. Introduction Resource-based communities, especially those in northern or rural regions of Canada will face unique challenges due to the impacts of climate change. Reliant on natural resources to support economic activities, these communities are highly sensitive to changes in the environment. Vulnerability in the ecosystem will lead to a change in the resilience of the communities and their capacity to adapt to changes. There is a danger that some natural resources may be unable to adapt to upcoming climatic changes and thus may decline or disappear. For communities where the natural resources are the lifeblood of the economy, particularly those that rely on only one type of resource, climate change may have a dramatic impact on people’s way of life. Limited economic diversity can limit the potential for the community to respond and adapt to changes in the resources and the fear is that this will lead to unsustainability and limited economic development of the region. On the flip side, there is still time to respond, as long as there is the will. Needed changes to adapt to climate change can provide economic opportunities as well as opportunities for community building and education. The City of Greater Sudbury is a vibrant bilingual and multicultural community that depends on healthy natural resources for most of our socio-economic activities. Home to approximately 158,000 people (Canada Census 2006), the city boasts the varied geography and ecosystems typical of the Canadian Shield. Within this mid-sized urban municipality, 28.2% of the population indicates French as their first language, 4.6% is of Aboriginal origin and the remaining 67.2% is mostly English but includes many other languages such as Finnish, Ukrainian, and Italian. Along with the rest of Canada, the City of Greater Sudbury is experiencing a noticeable aging of the population, a trend which is expected to continue until at least 2021. The City of Greater Sudbury serves as the regional capital of Northeastern Ontario - a market estimated at 550,000 people. Located 390 kilometres north of Toronto, 290 kilometres east of Sault Ste. Marie, and 483 kilometres west of Ottawa, the City of Greater Sudbury occupies a central location in Ontario at the convergence of two major highways, Highway 69 South and Highway 17 (Trans-Canada Highway). The City is centred in and around the "Sudbury Basin" in Northern Ontario, which contains the world’s largest nickel deposit, likely formed as a result of a meteor strike millions of years ago. The total area of the City of Greater Sudbury is 3,627 square kilometres including water bodies, making it the largest municipality in Ontario based on total area. The City of Greater Sudbury contains 330 named lakes within its municipal boundaries. More than twenty-five years of economic diversification effort and the recent amalgamation of several small towns into one municipality means that the impacts of climate change will be wide-ranging, affecting everything from old growth forests to the largest mining camp in Canada, all within one local political jurisdiction. An analysis of the Ontario data from the 2001 Canada Census reveals that the city's labour force profile has diversified significantly over the last three decades. Service activities, from retail to 26 producer services, now employ 80% of Greater Sudbury's labour force, and the remaining 20% works in the goods-producing sector. Health care, educational services and public administration all play an important role locally, reflecting Greater Sudbury's position as a regional service centre for Northeastern Ontario, as well as the continued development of our health care and education infrastructure. In 1971, Inco (now ValeInco) and Falconbridge (now Xstrata Nickel) dominated the local economy, employing over 25,000 people. In the past 30 years, new mining technologies have helped increase productivity while reducing overall employment in the mining sector. Despite this decline in the number of mining jobs, the demand for products, services and technological advancement has fuelled the development of an important mining services cluster. In contrast to arctic or coastal communities, cities like Sudbury have not yet suffered the impact of climate related damage, such as from extreme weather events. This has led to a focus on other environmental issues, such as air quality, with little incentive to understand the potential impacts of climate change on people's livelihood. However, climate change is already bringing important changes to Sudbury, whether we are ready for it or not, showing that these changes require consideration in short and long term planning in several sectors. Watershed management must expand to address the increasingly important issue of climate change. In managing the watershed, natural processes are always taking place and flexibility and evolution have always been important as managers are dealing with ecosystems that are naturally in flux. Climate change will add new challenges when planning how to mitigate impacts related to land use and how to deal with changes in the natural ecosystem. Planning will be key in order to be sure we are prepared for the new stressors that climate change will bring and special attention must be paid to safeguarding drinking water supplies. The goal of this position paper is to summarize the main issues that the Nickel District watersheds and the City of Greater Sudbury face regarding climate change and discuss potential strategies and directions for adapting to these changes. Various organizations will have important roles as part of a cooperative approach in adapting to climate change. The Nickel District Conservation Authority has committed to developing a Position Paper on Preparing for Climate Change in the Nickel District Watersheds. Targeting water as the main focus, it has become clear that there is a need for analysis at the watershed level to identify the main data gaps and to set priorities. From this, all community partners must engage in an action plan in order to protect natural and man-made resources from the impacts of climate change and thus safeguard our economy and our way of life. 27 2. What is Climate Change? Climate change has been a topic increasingly in the news as awareness and concern increases among the public and among policy makers. An excess of reports detailing extreme weather events such as hurricanes, flooding and severe droughts are now often linked to climate change and the consequences are sometimes frightening. However, how do we know if these events really signify climate change? When examining climate, it is important to take the long term view. Climate is defined as the average weather conditions over a long period of time, usually a minimum of 30 years. It differs from the weather forecast, which details the conditions that will occur during the period of 24 hours to a few days. A common phrase is “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.” If global conditions are stable, it is expected that an average of 30 years of weather conditions will give us a clear understanding of the climate in a given region. For example, we know that the climate of Northern Ontario includes generally cold winters with temperature averages of -10 to -35oC and snow fall varying between 80 to 200 cm, while in the region of Vancouver, BC, the climate is said to be humid temperate with winter temperatures varying between -2 and 8oC and precipitation from 250 to 600 mm of rain. Climate conditions have naturally varied over very long periods of time due to changes in the inclination of the earth and its orbit around the sun. Scientists can determine what the earth’s atmosphere was like by using ice cores, some of which gives data from over 400,000 years ago. An immense amount of data has been studied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), comprised of over 2500 scientists from 80 countries, and the consensus is that the Earth's climate is being affected by human activities. The greatest concern comes from the rapid changes that have occurred in the past 125 years, since the Industrial Revolution and the introduction of coal and other fossil fuel sources (such as oil and natural gas). The use of these fuels has led to the release of large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas that reduces the possibility of the heat trapped around the earth escaping into space. CO2 and other greenhouse gases, such as methane, act exactly the same way as the glass of a greenhouse, keeping the heat inside the protective layer of the earth. Scientists have determined that the recent dramatic increase in greenhouse gases is linked to increases in air temperatures. Air temperature is only one part of climate, but it is very important and will effect additional changes such as increased evaporation of water in some regions (such as in tropical and temperate regions), leading to changes in wind currents and precipitation patterns. Melting glacier ice will affect ocean currents and sea level. These disruptions in the climate are leading to a greater frequency of extreme events, such as heat waves, drought, flooding, and hurricanes. Because of variation in climatic conditions around the earth, it also means that changes are happening differently in the various regions. For example, while Northern Ontario may receive more precipitation in the spring and summer under the scenario of climate change, the Sub-Saharan region is becoming drier in the spring, leading to greater 28 desertification. In 2008, a new IPCC report was published stating that human activities leading to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions are the cause of the current changes observed in the climate and that these changes are going to continue. The consequences can be very significant for all of us in different ways but will affect our industries like agriculture and forestry, our water resources, our health and our health care system. For example, more frequent and severe droughts in the Prairies may reduce the amount of food available and increase food prices. Increased ocean temperatures may lead to a greater decline of fish stock, which will affect many people’s livelihoods. In some regions, extreme weather events are projected to increase, leading to more damage and human deaths. It is therefore important for all communities to not only continue their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also to become ready to respond and adapt to these changing conditions. What does this mean for the Nickel District watersheds and the City of Greater Sudbury? 29 3. The State of Climate Change in the Nickel District and the City of Greater Sudbury In the past three years, a group of researchers in Greater Sudbury, in collaboration with other organizations such as Environment Canada and Ouranos (a research and development consortium that brings together 250 scientists and professionals from different disciplines), have examined the climatic trends for the region with an eye to what impacts future changes will bring. It was possible to examine the historical trends in temperature and precipitation related variables and use a Global Climate Model projection to define the possible changes in climatic conditions in the City of Greater Sudbury in the 21st century. This section examines these trends and projections. The data are essential in order to define what systems and components of our community are vulnerable to climate change, the potential impacts that the region can face and from there, define what strategies and priorities are needed to be ready to respond to these consequences. Current climate The economy of Sudbury is to some extent dictated by its climate. Infertile soils, as well as the harshness of the climate, have discouraged agriculture in the Sudbury region. Based on 1971-2000 data, on average, Southern Ontario cities have 160 frost-free days, especially those located close to the Great Lakes, whereas cities in Northern Ontario have a frost-free season of only 50 to 120 days (Source: Canadian Climate Normals, 1971-2000. Dept. of the Environment, Atmospheric Environment Service, Canadian Commerce Group, Ottawa). Sudbury is generally frost-free from June until early September. The economies of Sudbury and other Northern Ontario cities have been sustained instead by mining, tourism, lumbering and other industries. While some resource-based sectors might be able to maintain their activities, such as mining, others, such as agriculture, forestry and tourism, might have more of a challenge in adapting quickly to climate change. Based on 1971-2000 climate data for the Greater Sudbury Airport, average daily maximum highs are, for the month of January -8°C; April 8°C; July 25°C; October 10°C (http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climate_normals/index_e.html). In July, the daily temperatures may range between highs well in excess of 30°C and lows below 15°C. Afternoon thunderstorms are fairly common in July. Winter temperatures often range as low as -35°C, with snowfall each year measured in the metres. Annual mean temperatures between 1999 and 2005 were over a degree above the 1971-1998 normal. Sudbury also received less precipitation than normal, whether snowfall or rainfall. Average annual precipitation is 899 mm, average monthly summer rainfall is approximately 90 mm, with September normally being the wettest month. The climate in this area is somewhat modified by the presence of the Great Lakes to the southwest. Table 1 portrays climate profiles for Sudbury as well as several other Canadian cities. Figure 1 shows the average yearly temperatures for the Sudbury area from 1955 to 2005. Note also the range (2-6 degrees Celsius) in temperature of the 30 warmest and coldest years in Sudbury. Maximum precipitation in Sudbury normally occurs in the summer months, especially in September, whereas the driest time of the year is usually February. Figure 2 shows the average yearly precipitation values for Sudbury from 1955 to 2005. Table 1: Climate Profiles for Sudbury in Comparison with Other Canadian Cities Location January July Average Average Average Annual Annual Annual Daily Temp. Daily Temp. Rainfall Snowfall Precipitation Max Min Max Min (mm) (cm) (mm) * Max Sudbury -8.4 -18.6 24.8 13.3 656.5 274.4 899.3 Airport Montreal (PET -5.7 -14.7 26.2 15.6 763.8 217.5 978.9 Airport) Vancouver Int’l 6.1 0.5 21.7 13.2 1154.7 48.2 1199.0 Airport St. John’s -0.9 -8.6 20.3 10.5 1191.0 322.3 1513.7 Airport Edmonton Int’l -8.0 -19.1 22.2 9.5 374.8 121.4 482.7 Airport Toronto Pearson -2.1 -10.5 26.8 14.8 684.6 115.4 792.7 Int’l Airport Source: Canadian Climate Normals, 1971-2000. Dept. of the Environment, Atmospheric Environment Service, Canadian Commerce Group, Ottawa. * NOTE: The snowfall is melted to determine the amount of water, which in turn is used to calculate the Annual Precipitation in millimetres. 31 6.5 Mean Annual Temperature (°C) 6 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Figure 1: Mean Annual Temperature Variation for the Greater Sudbury Airport from 1955 to 2005 Total Annual Precipitation (mm) 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Figure 2: Total Annual Precipitation Variation for the Greater Sudbury Airport from 1955 to 2005 32 Trends According to the Köppen Climate Classification (Ahrens 2003), the climate in the Greater Sudbury area is humid continental (Dfb), humid with severe winters, no dry season, warm summers. The city is located at about 46 degrees north latitude, north of Georgian Bay. While not very far north by maritime climate standards, Sudbury is considered to be in Northern Ontario due to the severity of its climate and the harshness of the surrounding landscape. Relatively cold temperatures, high incidence of sunshine, and plenty of snow make it perfectly suited for winter sport, from November to April. The winters are typical of northern Canada, being both continuous and generally cold. However, the area has been affected by warmer-than-usual, very dry conditions over the past few years. Some areas of the city have experienced potential stresses on water levels and supplies due to low levels of precipitation and high levels of evaporation since the 1990s, mostly during the summer period. 1961-1990 Month (1-Jan…12- Dec) Temperature Averages: Jan – Mar: -10.4 Apr – Oct: 12.1 Nov – Dec: -5.7 Annual: 3.5 2040-2069 CGCM1 GA1 Month (1-Jan…12- Dec) Temperature Averages Jan – Mar: -5.1 Apr – Oct: 14.4 Nov – Dec: – 4 Annual: 6.4 Figure 3: Temperature Profiles for Greater Sudbury for the Baseline Period of 1961 to 1990, and for the 2050s or from 2040 to 2069 Source: Canadian Climate Impacts and Scenarios (www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/). 33 Future scenarios Scientists estimate that Ontario will warm an average of 2°C to 5°C within the next 75 to 100 years. Warming during the winter months is projected to be greater than during the summer months, and extreme events, such as floods, droughts and storms will likely become more frequent and severe. While it sounds like a small difference in temperature, these changes will have severe consequences for our lives and the ecosystems that support us. Scientists have warned that is average global temperatures rise by 2°C, the result could be massive species extinctions and dramatic changes in ecosystems. There are uncertainties associated with predicting future climate, but for the City of Greater Sudbury, climate projections for the shorter term period of 2010-2039 suggest that the types of changes and impacts experienced in recent years may be increasingly common in the future due to increased climate variability and change. Projections from the Canadian Global Climate Model suggest (the CGCM1 GA1 was used in the climate profiles): ▪ a 2°C increase in mean summer temperatures and a 1°C increase in winter temperatures; ▪ a slight (1%) precipitation increase (on annual basis), with uncertain changes in seasonal distribution of precipitation, with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow (snowfall season going from October to May (baseline 1961-1990) to November to April (2020)); ▪ more frequent and intense extreme events (e.g. droughts, heavy precipitation, freezing rain); ▪ shorter winter and longer summer seasons with close to twice as many hot days (days with 25°C) and 4-6 times as many days 30°C, compared to baseline 19611990 data. Higher temperatures and longer growing seasons may, over time, enhance forest and agriculture productivity. However, there are concerns about more frequent occurrences of extreme events, and other potential impacts from changes in climate. Greater freezing rain and flooding events in the winter as well as more frequent droughts in the summer may have significant impacts on the water quality and quantity of the Nickel District watershed. It is therefore important to understand these consequences and prepare adaptation strategies for the future. 34 4. Potential Impacts and Current Priorities Changes in climate in the Greater Sudbury area will lead to specific impacts for the various sectors in the community. This section describes some of the potential impacts that will most likely affect the community. While some general impacts on the natural and managed ecosystems are presented, the second component of this section focuses mostly on water. The previous study on climate change for the region and the NDCA watersheds recognizes that our surface and groundwater sources may be most affected by climate change. This is especially true as the mining sector and the community continue to develop, putting stress on the water resources. a. Impacts on Natural Ecosystems Impacts on natural ecosystems in Sudbury and surrounding area include: - more fire damage - new disease vectors - more invasive species - decrease in water quality (more eutrophication and algal blooms) and possible changes in quantity due to higher temperatures and less precipitation - more extreme weather events - lower lake levels due to higher temperatures and less precipitation - sulfur and heavy metal release due to drying up of lakes and marshes - impacts on cold water aquatic species, such as lake trout, as water temperatures increase, water levels decrease and development pressures increase b. Impacts on the Managed Environment Various sectors will experience impacts from the change in climate: - Tourism: less snow for skiing and snowmobiling, shorter ice fishing season, less clean water for boating and swimming - Municipal infrastructure: more road repair with increased frequency of freezethaw cycles, more power outages, flooding - Electric Utilities: lower water levels resulting in less hydropower production - Agriculture: new pests, more extreme weather events, reduction in soil moisture - Health: heat waves, contaminated drinking water, diseases, contaminated beaches and swimming areas leading to more enteric related illnesses, pressure on emergency response units - Mining: need for large amounts of water - Building sector: new safeguards needed to protect shorelines and wetlands; insurance costs 35 c. Impacts on our Water Resources We have already seen impacts from climate on our water. For example, Sudbury has already seen warmer than usual conditions leading to potential stresses on drinking water supplies. As the population grows, it will create increased pressure on drinking water supplies and place greater development pressure on our natural ecosystems that supply us with fresh and clean water. Housing development along shorelines has traditionally included removal of vegetation and use of chemicals such as lawn pesticides and fertilizers. These practices need to change in order to protect our water resources. Public education is needed to ensure that watershed residents understand the future impacts of climate change, such as drought conditions and more frequent severe storm events. There is also increased need for more in depth flood risk management planning in the NDCA watersheds. We have already seen greater risk of flash flooding in the later winter months in part due to changes in spring rainfall intensity and snowmelt runoff. There are currently two major flood control dams in the watershed operated by the NDCA. There is very little detailed information available regarding Sudbury’s drainage infrastructure (culverts, bridges, ditches, catch basins, storm sewers). Information including type, size, location, age and conveyance capacity is vitally important. A database of hydraulic information for city culverts has been recommended in the case study on Greater Sudbury conducted by the Canadian Council of Professional Engineers as part of Canada’s First National Engineering Vulnerability Assessment of Public Infrastructure, released in March, 2008. Storm water management is recognized as vitally important to protect our watershed resources and residents. All partners must be responsible for necessary storm water management adaptation strategies. The first generation Source Protection Plan being prepared by the NDCA for municipal drinking water supply in Sudbury needs to include climate change considerations. With climate change, water temperatures are expected to increase and water levels to decrease which could lead to increased human health impacts, and put significant pressure on our infrastructure. Increased development along the shores of the lakes used for municipal or private drinking water supplies will only make these problems worse. Therefore, we need stringent development standards for shorelines. Looking to the future, Lake Wahnapitae could become the primary municipal drinking water supply source. Steps need to be taken now to protect this vitally important water resource. 36 5. Building a Community Response to Climate Change Knowing the potential impacts of climate change is one thing, however, being able to respond and adapt to these changes is another. The NDCA and the City of Greater Sudbury are committed to organize a plan of action that will help our city adapt to the changes, thus better preparing the community to deal with the consequences of climate change and maintain their livelihoods and prosperity. The key points of this position paper are that in order to succeed in this strategy, the NDCA and the City of Greater Sudbury acknowledge that: water supplies are limited and climate change (especially the projected extremes in weather) will mostly likely increase pressures on water quality and quantity; we will need to work with all residents to implement actions and activities that will protect our resources; through these actions, we can make the watershed more resilient to face the changes; and short, medium and long term planning and programming priorities of the NDCA and the City of Greater Sudbury will be essential in achieving these goals. Since all of us will be affected by these changes over time, it is therefore the responsibility of all of us to work toward more environmentally friendly management. A healthy environment for a healthy community is vital in a city such as Greater Sudbury where natural resources, especially water resources, are the pride of the communities. The NDCA and the City of Greater Sudbury both play an important role in the protection of our watersheds and in the quality of life in the community. The Healthy Community initiative in Greater Sudbury has been essential to bring stakeholders together and has lead to its designation as a UN Regional Centre of Expertise (RCE). As stated by Mayor John Rodrigez (City Report 2007): "With that initiative, we set out to build a healthy, sustainable community where economic, environmental and social considerations are given equal weight and where everyone has a share in the benefits of development. Our designation as an RCE reaffirms Council's commitment to develop and implement an action plan that will result in a healthier community.” It is therefore important for this community to support adaptation strategies that will help maintain its long term prosperity in a healthy natural environment. 37 6. Action Items Greater Sudbury already has some capacity to adapt to climate change. Based on a variety of indicators such as economic wealth, technology transfer, information and skills, infrastructure, advanced post-secondary institution research, and social capital, the community partners have shown strong resolve to deal with the impacts of and adaptations to climate change. But there is an urgent need to understand the strengths and the gaps that we currently have in order to implement adaptation strategies in the community. The NDCA and the City of Greater Sudbury have identified the following actions as needed to be able to adapt gradually to the changing climate in terms of protecting the quality and quantity of our water supply, and dealing with expected impacts on municipal and storm water management infrastructure. 1. Initiate a Sudbury Consortium on Climate Change: The NDCA has an opportunity to continue to act as a broker to bring together the various partners who have a stake in ensuring the City of Greater Sudbury is able to adapt to climate change impacts. To continue working together, the NDCA should spearhead a consortium, including partners such as: Laurentian University, Greater Sudbury Development Corporation, Sudbury and District Health Unit, Cooperative Freshwater Ecology Unit, Northern Ontario School or Medicine, MIRARCO, Government of Canada, Government of Ontario, Science North, ValeInco, Xstrata Nickel, Greater Sudbury Utilities, EarthTech, Golder and Associates, Cambrian College, Collège Boréal, Greater Sudbury Chamber of Commerce, and EarthCare. 2. Protection of Lakes: As invasive species become a greater threat to water quality with warmer summers and continuous movements of boats between water bodies, the NDCA and the City, in collaboration with research groups such as the ValeInco Living with Lakes Centre, should maintain a long term monitoring program and define over time the need for restrictions for water use and restoration approaches to ensure long term enjoyment of our lakes. 3. Enhancement of Flood Warning System: As extreme weather events that include a freeze-rain-thaw sequence in the winter become more frequent, there will be a need to ensure that the current NDCA warning system be supported and enhanced in areas more prone to flooding. Re-assessment of the areas potentially vulnerable to flooding will have to be undertaken on a 510 year basis and consequently redefinition of the warning system will be needed. In addition, as submitted in 2008 to the City of Greater Sudbury from the Junction Creek Safety Committee, efforts should be maintained, especially in the next 2-3 years, to develop a more integrated warning system to avoid incidents that may occur during flash flooding of all watercourses during extreme rainfall events. 4. Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Upgrades: With 38 extreme changes in temperatures, especially in the winters, it is expected that a greater number of water pipes (main and secondary ones) will break due to freeze-thaw exposure. The City should assess the current status of the water system and plan on a continuous and medium to long term (5-15 years) renewal of the pipes in order to ensure adequate distribution and reduce water loss and leakage due to damage. In addition, the City must ensure that the wastewater infrastructure will be able to handle extremes and protect the natural ecosystem. 5. Improved Modelling: The need for data gathering and modelling remains important to better predict what changes are expected at the watershed level and understand the consequences of climate change. The recent analyses were done using various models, some being less adequate for the region. There is a need for downscaling (i.e. information at the local scale) and for completing biophysical modelling (DEM) for the watershed in order to integrate the scenarios, the potential impacts on the watershed and where actions must be initiated first in order to protect the water supply and municipal infrastructure for all watershed residents. Through continuous collaboration between the different partners in the community, as well as external organizations such as Environment Canada and the Ontario Ministry of Environment, data can be gathered over the next few years, depending on funding and other logistic support. 6. Protect Municipal Drinking Water: Work to integrate climate change into the Drinking Water Source Protection (DWSP) project is vitally important. The NDCA, Greater Sudbury Source Protection Authority (GSSPA) and Greater Sudbury Source Protection Committee (GSSPC) acknowledge that the Assessment Report, and eventually the Source Protection Plan, must include discussion of climate change, integrating the protection of the current and potential future municipal drinking water sources for the community. This is especially important in areas where population is continuously growing, such as in the Valley, or in areas where most water supply relies on one or two wells. 7. Prevent Water-borne Diseases and Contamination: With warmer summers and extreme rainfall events, toxic chemicals can be released into the water system or lakes and can lead to the proliferation of pests, such as mosquitoes which can carry diseases such as West Nile virus. It remains important that the Sudbury District Health Unit, with the City of Greater Sudbury, maintain the surveillance program and continue to implement a wide and efficient warning system to alert the community of any type of potential danger. While the program is already implemented, over the next few years there will be a need to enhance its role and evaluate how it can be broadened in order to ensure greater safety in smaller lakes and areas where human activities occur in a more regular basis. 39 8. Public Education: Education remains essential for all residents of the watershed to better understand the vital role that lakes and the water supply play in their lives and the need for their protection, especially in the face of climate change. To do this, the NDCA, the City of Greater Sudbury, Sudbury District Health Unit (SDHU) and other partners must continue to support the Water Festival and continue to enhance exhibits and other workshops in the region to explain the science and impacts of climate change, and outline the actions currently being taken by the community to adapt to these challenges. Over the next 2-4 years, training of city staff and employees of different industries should be encouraged to help support greater awareness and action towards the adaptation to a changing climate. 8. Conclusion: The Role and Place of NDCA, the City and Other Partners Since its inception, the NDCA has played a critical role in protecting the watershed residents through integrated watershed management programs. With the passage of the Ontario Clean Water Act and the establishment of the Greater Sudbury Source Protection Committee, the NDCA is in a strong position to act as the main broker to facilitate actions and adaptation strategies to climate change regarding watershed infrastructure and municipal water supply issues in the community. The City of Greater Sudbury must be the pivotal management and implementation structure to ensure that citizens of the watershed are guaranteed water quality and quantity while being protected in cases of extreme weather events and other impacts, such as algal blooms or other invasive species. Of course, other key partners must also be at the table in order to implement actions and adaptation strategies that are directly relevant to their mandates. This is true for the Sudbury District Health Unit, Science North, Junction Creek Stewardship Committee, ValeInco Living with Lakes Centre, Laurentian University, College Boreal and Cambrian College, etc. It is evident that with the participation of all the citizens in the Nickel District watershed and the City of Greater Sudbury, the consequences of climate change may be mitigated through planning and implementing adaptation strategies. It is true that climate change will have many other impacts on the Sudbury area. The current Position Paper is aimed at opening the discussion on how a community that has met many challenges in the past will take its destiny in hand to define the adaptation strategies needed to protect its citizens, water resources and infrastructure. The action items presented here are the first steps in this direction. Considering the enviable position of the City of Greater Sudbury as a designated UN Regional Centre of Expertise, the actions and strategies to be acted upon over the next five to ten years can become a global model, as has been the Re-greening of Sudbury’s natural environment over the last thirty years. 40 9. Glossary Adaptation: changes made by a living thing, such as plants, animals, or humans, to better live within its environment as it changes Agriculture: activities related to the production of crops and keeping animals to create products like food or fibre Algal bloom: Heavy growth of algae in and on a body of water as a result of high nutrient concentrations Anthropogenic: Human-caused. Atmosphere: the layer of air around the earth Blanket effect: refers to the layer of greenhouse gases that keep the earth warm Canadian Global Climate Model: a climate simulation model, developed by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, for climate prediction, study of climate change and variability, and to better understand the various processes which govern our climate system. Carbon: an element found in all living things and in things made of the remains of living things (e.g. coal, oil, diamonds, graphite) Carbon dioxide: gas in the atmosphere and an essential part of the carbon cycle Climate: overall or long-term average of weather conditions (usually measured using an average of temperature, precipitation or other climactic factors over a period of 30 years) Climate change: a change in the climate that is linked to human causes on top of natural climate fluctuations Disease vector: an organism that does not cause disease itself but that transmits infection by conveying pathogens from one host to another. Ecosystem: the collective relationships between living things within their environment Fossil fuel: non-renewable source of energy, such as coal, oil and natural gas Eutrophication: over-enrichment of a water body with nutrients, usually caused by runoff of nutrients (animal waste, fertilizers, sewage) from the land, resulting in excessive growth of organisms and depletion of oxygen concentration Glacier: a large mass of ice which is a result of accumulated snowfall with little snow melt and flows under its own mass Global warming: the increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Greenhouse effect: warming that results when solar radiation is trapped by the atmosphere Greenhouse gas: A gas in Earth’s atmosphere that traps heat, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous dioxide Ice core: Samples of layered ice from glaciers that may contain dust, chemicals, and gases that have been deposited with snow over hundreds of thousands of years. These layers reveal past climate characteristics. IPCC: a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) comprised of over 2500 scientists from 80 countries Industrial Revolution: a period in the late 18th and early 19th centuries when society had a shift in focus from agriculture to industry, with rapid development in technology, as well as the greater use of fossil fuels 41 Invasive species: any species that has spread beyond its natural range into new locations as a result of human activity and that usually impacts the functions or services of the ecosystem that it invades Precipitation: the quantity of water falling to earth in any form (rain or snow or hail or sleet or mist) Storm water management pond: detention basin designed to temporarily store collected storm water runoff and release it at a controlled rate, preventing erosion and flooding and maintaining water quality Sustainability: Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Watershed: A region of land within which water flows down into a specified body, such as a river, lake, sea, or ocean Weather: consists of the short-term (minutes to months) variations of the atmosphere 10. List of Acronyms CGCM Canadian Global Climate Model DWSP Drinking Water Source Protection GSSPA Greater Sudbury Source Protection Authority GSSPC Greater Sudbury Source Protection Committee IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NDCA Nickel District Conservation Authority RCE Regional Centre of Expertise SDHU Sudbury District Health Unit UN United Nations 42