Download Read More... - Greater Sudbury Climate Change Consortium

NICKEL DISTRICT CONSERVATION AUTHORITY
Climate Change Planning Session Report
June 5, 2009
Dr. Liette Vasseur and Emily McMillan
Bob Rogers, Chair, N.D.C.A.
Paul Sajatovic, Watershed Management Services Director, N.D.C.A.
NDCA Climate Change Planning Session
Report
Prepared By: Dr.Liette Vasseur and Emily McMillan
Bob Rogers, Chair, NDCA
Paul Sajatovic, Watershed Management Services Director, NDCA
Executive Summary
Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming
observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat
trapping gases. These emissions come from many activities and land uses, but mainly
come from burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas.) Climate related changes are being
observed and scientifically documented globally, nationally, and locally. This includes
the watersheds of the Nickel District Conservation Authority (NDCA) within the Greater
Sudbury community.
In March, 2009 the NDCA General Board approved a Climate Change Position Paper
entitled, “Positioning the Nickel District Conservation Authority within the City of
Greater Sudbury in a Future Climate.” Various action items are included in the
position paper (see Appendix E.) The top priority is to create the Sudbury Climate
Change Consortium (CGSCCC) to develop and implement adaptation and risk
management strategies in the community. To that end, the NDCA convened a planning
workshop on June 5, 2009. The session was facilitated by Dr.Liette Vasseur, VicePresident of Research, Brock University, and a former member of the NDCA General
Board. Participants at the session included NDCA members and staff, and senior staff
from various departments within the City of Greater Sudbury.
The planning session offered an opportunity for the NDCA to begin discussions with its
member municipality on issues of mutual concern related to climate change adaptation
and risk management in the community. This workshop was the first step by the NDCA
in reaching out to many other agencies and organizations in the community with a role in
climate change adaptation. In developing the Consortium, it was vitally important that the
first working session be with municipal representatives.
The planning session allowed participants to understand the forces that are driving
climate change adaptation needs and the importance of thinking strategically about the
future impacts and needs. Participants were actively engaged by the facilitator and
considered many different scenarios related to how the consortium would be structured
and function.
2
Many excellent ideas were generated by all the participants during the session. At the
conclusion of the working session it was unanimous that the NDCA, with the support and
active engagement from the member municipality, is best positioned to take the
leadership role in developing the consortium partnership network. The NDCA has a
strong record within the watersheds of using integrated watershed management
approaches to find solutions to difficult problems and working collaboratively for the
benefit of the watershed residents. The Governance models considered by the participants
recognized the importance of a model which fosters and supports opportunities for inter
group communication and information exchange.
The Planning Session Report prepared by Dr. Vasseur, and her Research Assistant Emily
McMillan, summarizes the input received from all the participants. A summary of the
Key Outcomes/Findings from the session is as follows:
1. The NDCA, with direct involvement and support from its member municipality,
is strategically positioned to lead the Consortium Partnership initiative in the
community.
2. General consensus was reached amongst the participants on the structure and
operational model for the Sudbury Climate Change Consortium (see Appendix A
in the detailed report); over the next four to six months all partners will be
actively engaged to create the partnership network.
3. Climate Change adaptation strategies and risk management measures must
address impacts on water resources, both quantity and quality; municipal and
NDCA infrastructure throughout the community; human health impacts; other
stresses in the community, etc.
4. The NDCA can do a number of things now to move this initiative forward by
informing, engaging and educating the community at large on climate change.
Examples include a web-based information section on the NDCA corporate
website, presentations to Community Action Networks around the City, etc.
5. Delaying action until more information/data is available in a number of areas is
NOT an option for Greater Sudbury. Strong leadership and clear vision sometimes
requires moving forward without all the answers and then actively engaging many
individuals and agencies to obtain the information and formulate the answers.
6. The partners must share in developing community wide capabilities such as
integrated GIS systems to further efforts in adapting to climate change.
7. Greater Sudbury already has some capacity to adapt to climate change impacts.
There is however, an urgent need to understand the strengths and gaps, in
particular lack of data, that currently exist in the community to implement
adaptation strategies. The NDCA, its member municipality and many other
partners must now come together in this consortium to identify the strengths and
gaps to ensure a better future for this extremely resilient community.
3
Context and Objective
Climate change will impact the watersheds of Greater Sudbury, particularly increasing
pressures on the quality and quantity of our valuable water resources. This was one of the
main conclusions of studies such as the Case Study on Climate Change Vulnerabilities
and Potential Adaptations conducted from 2005-2007 by several partners under the lead
of Laurentian University. This project with the addition of other reports were the basis for
further discussion that led to the development of the Climate Change Position Paper,
“Positioning the Nickel District Conservation Authority within the City of Greater
Sudbury in a Future Climate” authored by Liette Vasseur and Emily McMillan for the
Nickel District Conservation Authority (NDCA). This position paper was approved in
March 2009 by the NDCA Board and was the basis for a planning workshop on June 5,
2009 held with key senior staff from the City of Greater Sudbury.
The first action proposed in this position paper was to Initiate a Sudbury Consortium on
Climate Change. More specifically, the “NDCA has the capacity to act as a broker to
bring together the various partners who have a stake in ensuring the City of Greater
Sudbury is able to adapt to climate change impacts. To continue working together, the
NDCA would spearhead a consortium, including partners such as: Laurentian
University, Greater Sudbury Development Corporation, Sudbury and District Health
Unit, Cooperative Freshwater Ecology Unit, Northern Ontario School of Medicine,
MIRARCO, Government of Canada, Government of Ontario, Science North, Vale Inco,
Xstrata Nickel, Greater Sudbury Utilities, EarthTech, Golder and Associates, Cambrian
College, Collège Boréal, Greater Sudbury Chamber of Commerce, and EarthCare”. It is
clear that only through the cooperation of all major stakeholders can climate change
adaptation strategies be developed and implemented for Greater Sudbury watersheds.
The main objective of the planning session on June 5, 2009 was to work on this first
action item and discuss the main components of this new Consortium.
DISCUSSION AND OUTCOMES
Appendix B and C include the main discussion that occurred with the participants during
the planning session. Considering the objective of this planning session, the following
paragraphs summarize the general outcomes.
4
a) Recognition of Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the City of Greater
SudburyThe participants understood very well the potential impacts of climate change for
the watersheds and the community at large, especially in terms of extreme events
leading to flooding, ice storms, etc. Water was identified as being a driving force
that will also have impacts on the infrastructure, health and emergency measures.
All felt a need to start planning and work on potential adaptation strategies.
Discussion of the Peterborough flood event (July, 2004) helped focus on issues
that could happen in Greater Sudbury.
b) ChallengesThere was however some discussion on the lack of local data limiting the speed at
which actions can be taken. Lack of data or information was clearly identified as a
problem by the participants. In addition, the need for a better integrated GIS
system with all partners was mentioned on several occasions. It would be
important as a future action item of the Consortium to define the elements of this
GIS system and start gathering the information as soon as possible. Waiting for
this to move ahead in terms of developing adaptation strategies is not effective.
This approach can lead to lack of initiatives and would not resolve the issues. In
addition, it is clear that education must be maintained to help people understand
the challenges and importance to adapt to climate change.
c) ConsortiumThere was a strong consensus that the Consortium must be created in order to
move forward the agenda of climate change adaptation. The CGSCCC should be
approved and empowered by City Council with the NDCA designated as the lead
organization.
d) Resource NeedsJoint funding and resources should come from the City and Consortium partners
through in-kind and dollar contributions. It is also proposed that applications to
HRSDC and EI be made for support staff. A project manager is needed for the
Consortium to have positive impact on the community. Initially a budget of
$75,000 over two years is considered appropriate.
5
These are the elements of the Consortium model being proposed.
i)Composition- The Consortium should include the following groups:
NDCA (1)
CGS(Earthcare, Emergency services, water wastewater, roads and drainage, social
planning, social services) (3)
Sudbury and District Health Unit (1)
Laurentian University and Cambrian and Boreal College (3)
Chamber of Commerce (1)
Hydro utilities (1)
VETAC (1)
Representative from each school board (4)
Industry (1)
The suggestion is to limit the board to a maximum of 14-16 participants. A board larger
than the suggested size usually leads to confusion and difficulties in making decisions
and reaching consensus. Additional people can be added in the working groups in
function of the needs such as MNR, MOE, other NGOs, etc.
ii)Decision Making- It was clear that a consensus driven board would be the most
acceptable way to deal with these issues. Voting cannot represent the full range of
acceptance. It is suggested that the meetings be open to the public.
iii)Reporting Structure- The CGSCCC Board will report to City Council through the
NDCA. The consortium would have working groups for the main issues identified. It is
suggested that two working groups be formed: 1) GIS system integration and 2)
communication / education activities. A model similar to that of the Healthy Community
Cabinet should be used. This will allow interaction between the Consortium and other
community groups as required on key issues.
iv)First Actions Items1) Proceed with the NDCA “quick win” initiatives
a) Electronic Library
b) Presentations for Community Action Networks and schools
c) Presentation to City Council in early Fall 2009.
2) Request approval and support from City Council.
3) Develop a budget and find funding sources for staffing and other costs.
6
4) Appoint the members of the Consortium Board.
5) Form the working groups – (a) GIS system integration, and (b)
communication/education activities.
v)Time Frame1) September, 2009 – Initial Partners committed to Consortium Board.
2) October, 2009 – Terms of Reference for the Consortium Board drafted.
3) October, 2009 – Approval of CGSCCC by City Council.
4) November, 2009 – Initial meeting of the CGSCCC.
5) January, 2010 – Public Information sessions inaugurated.
(June 28, 2009)
7
Appendix A
Sudbury Climate Change Consortium
A Collaborative Initiative of the Nickel District Conservation Authority
Numerous agencies and organizations with a focus on one or more aspects of
Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management currently exist in Greater
Sudbury. Most are very active within their own areas of interest, but much great
work is being done in virtual isolation. Opportunities for intergroup
communication, information exchange and collaboration are vitally important.
A Sudbury Climate Change Consortium is in the formative stages to bridge these
gaps allowing the partners to work together collaboratively for the benefit of our
watershed residents, water resources and infrastructure. The Nickel District
Conservation Authority (NDCA) has taken the lead in this community action.
Other such models exist in the community in terms of this type of successful
operational partnership. Examples include the Vegetation Enhancement Technical
Advisory Committee (VETAC); the City of Greater Sudbury’s Healthy
Community Cabinet; the Greater Sudbury Biodiversity Partnership, etc.
The Climate Change Consortium will allow information sharing, wider
participation on group activities, and heightened public awareness and education
on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in the Nickel District
watersheds, The Sudbury Climate Change Consortium will have a steering group.
Membership is not exclusive and new partners will be welcomed and encouraged
over time. The Nickel District Conservation Authority (www.nickeldistrict.ca),
with direct involvement of our member municipality the City of Greater Sudbury,
is well positioned to lead the consortium. The consortium is to be formed and
active by the end of 2009.
Our Vision
The Sudbury Climate Change Consortium will:
 Oversee and coordinate the work of community agencies and organizations to
develop sound climate change adaptation strategies for the community and
residents.
 Engage the community in dialogue on climate change adaptation and mitigation.
 Champion, locally, provincially and nationally, the leading edge work being
done in Greater Sudbury in terms of developing climate change adaptation
strategies.
 Seek opportunities for joint projects and partnership collaborations.
8
 Support and encourage local research, projects and activities.
 Feed into regional, provincial and national processes as appropriate.
 Report back to the partners and the community on a regular basis.
Actions to Date
 Greater Sudbury Case Study: Promoting community sustainability through
adaptive responses to socio-economic and risk assessments of the potential
impacts of climate change scenarios in a natural resource-based, mid-sized
Canadian Shield community (Principal Investigator -Dr. Liette Vasseur,
formerly at Laurentian University, Sudbury - April, 2007)
 Positioning the Nickel District Conservation Authority (NDCA) within the
City of Greater Sudbury in a Future Climate (Climate Change Position Paper March, 2009)
 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptations in Nickel District
Watersheds (Presentation to Conservation Ontario Council - April, 2009)
 Climate Change Partners Planning Session: NDCA and City of Greater
Sudbury
(June, 2009)
Next Steps
 Develop public resource library on NDCA website by posting relevant
information (local, provincial, national, and international) on climate change
adaptation and risk assessment management. (Summer, 2009)
 Develop community based power point presentations dealing with climate
change adaptation for use by Community Action Networks in Greater
Sudbury. (Summer, 2009)
 Continuing interaction with the North South Climate Change Network
located at Laurentian University, Sudbury.
 Overview presentation to member municipality to gain support for
Consortium Partnership work in Nickel District Watersheds. (September,
2009)
 Detailed presentation to Greater Sudbury Council at a Strategic Planning
session with focus on climate change adaptation and risk management
approaches for the community. (Fall, 2009)
Considering the enviable position of the City of Greater Sudbury as a designated
UN Regional Centre of Expertise on Education for Sustainable Development, the
actions and strategies to be acted upon by the Sudbury Climate Change
Consortium over the next five to ten years can become a global model as has been
the reclamation/re-greening of Sudbury’s natural environment over the last thirty
9
plus years.
Appendix B
Summary notes of Emily McMillan regarding the Planning Session of June 5, 2009
1. Liette:
Taking action on action item one from the position paper.
Follow up from the NRCAN project (see Final Report)
Sudbury has better capacity to adapt than other municipalities but we have to take action
and do so in such a way that the adaptations will be successful.
Water (quality and quantity) is a key issue:
Temperature has increased over the last 50 yrs and so has precipitation but the rate of
evapo-transpiration has also increased, so we are getting drier faster. Also precipitation is
not falling in the same way.
It will get colder in the winter and hotter in the summer.
As it gets drier, the lakes become more acidic. Impacts wetlands which are now covering
debris from the mines – loss of those wetlands could lead to more air particulates and also
more acidification.
Storms may become more frequent, if not stronger. E.g. more freezing rain, more
freeze/thaw, more flash floods
Warmer, drier conditions will also impact the forest species that can survive, also more
forest fires (affects reforestation efforts)
2. Nick (Peterborough):
Training in emergency preparedness included info on climate change impacts
Flooding was from rainfall, not overflow from the river – the infrastructure failed.
** Need integration of GIS databases among all the consortium and also private sector
(ValeInco) along with database of elderly or infirm people who are not mobile – could
identify hot spots and people who will require rescue – allow for advance planning and
also would save money.
**Also need more robust early warning system in the city to predict events
3. Focus Groups
4. Paul reviewed available documents for municipalities
Infrastructure report has appendix of climate change scenario for Sudbury – confirmed
work that Liette had done
Integrated watershed management and climate change (Dr. Dave Pearson)
Municipalities are on the front lines
10
Toronto Conservation Authority is ahead of the curve
Litigation realities re infrastructure
Environment Canada has committed to do a storm analysis, assessment of standards, new
dam safety act (design standards are low, maximum probable floods higher now than
before therefore current dams are substandard, regional design standards are badly
underestimated); dilemma of reaction from the public if standards are raised.
Urban storm water committee – whose job is it to collect data and issue warnings re water
in urban system before it hits the watercourse
Weather data is key component, not in Envt Canada mandate (only storm forecasts) and
so can not give MNR or CA data needed in usable and reliable format (currently format is
percentages over a really large area – not helpful) no staff to monitor radar to pick up
local storm activity, which can develop quickly; also no groundproofing of radar system
– development of future plans different issue than current practical use
Drinking water: Judy & Sharon: two reports being prepared and have to address climate
change and province is looking at that too – identifying data gaps. Will identify local
priorities and cost out. Different issues between lake (Ramsey), river (Wanapitei), well
fields – microclimates around the various sources – looking at where they should put the
money
Data collection important but equally important is data management – accessible and
updated** gap that could be filled with Nick’s idea of GIS overlays
Concern to remember that not everything is a climate change issue (e.g. blue-green algae)
5. Adaptation
Have to start moving even as we know we need more data that is localized, small scale
If we make all the plans, it won’t matter if people don’t know about it e.g. the elderly
person with flooded house needs to know how to get help
Two good examples – one from NB on storm surge modelling what would happen
Annapolis Royal – where to put the fire station – with a flood they would have been an
island and unable to connect.
Insurance companies not covering Chamblis because of outdated sewage system –
wastewater management considered the key component
10.
Yes to consortium but need resources (funding)
Vision: That the watershed will be protected, extreme events are managed
Mission: prioritizing the actions and champion them
Partnership model:
1. like source water protection (offshoot of NDCA)
2. like soil study – technical committee driven by working groups – could be
subsumed in first model – NDCA as head organization
Members need a stake to be at the table
11
3. champions from government (3 levels), institutional sector (commercial,
residential, industrial), and those key people could reach out to other groups
(higher level and then constituency groups)
4. many groups around the table
suggestion that education sector is important to maintain – ties into creating awareness
one communication person
decision group has to be a high enough level that they know their organization and can
decide – ie not just a representative but someone who can make things happen. – also top
down buy-in
Balance with keeping group small (12 people max)
5. Healthy Community Cabinet Model – also cross sector, works at policy level,
supported by 4 pillars (EMS, Health, water, etc) – smaller working group to move
fast
Consensus but with specific terms of reference spelling out quorum etc. – needed in order
to move forward on contentious issues and have everyone want to move
Insurance industry - maybe as a resource, maybe for funding for case studies, give input,
are too invested to be a stakeholder, maybe more advisory role
Some government departments (MTO) may also be more advisory (e.g. to advise re
regulations)
Action items:
Public awareness – key to buy in
Political support
Cost evaluation (time and staff, resources) and secure
Master plan for CGS within 20 years ???
GIS integrated database
Quick wins: electronic library on webpage with all the documentation on climate change
(NDCA) and others can send other documents
NDCA can create powerpoint with voiceover (amalgamating all the other powerpoints)
and give to Community Action Networks to share with members
NDCA can report to council what happened today and what next steps are (fall)
Make presentation at Strategic planning session of council and staff (NDCA)
Final thoughts:
 Think about calling it extreme event planning instead of climate change which is
boring
 Creating educational piece for children, professional development for teachers
 Look for internship funding to bring in resources
 Think and educate at the individual watershed level
Bob’s conclusion:
 Is tons of information on climate change, but is lots of trees and we need to see them
as a forest – at the ecosystem, neighbourhood, city scale – all on a scientific basis
 Continuums:
12
o
o
o
o
Substance and process – must have both
Reacting and anticipating
Experts and public – all must be involved and committed
Talking and listening
Appendix C
Summary of the answer sheets filled by the participants at the Planning Session
June 5, 2009
Morning session
(i) Is there recognition at the City, N.D.C.A. and in the community that changes in
climate are impacting and will more extensively impact natural and man-made systems in
the watersheds?
Yes, strongly agree ___; agree ___; not sure ___; do not agree
 Select portion of city staff (generally experts) within the field are aware, NDCA is
completely aware, community awareness very low
 One strongly agree
 Two not sure (few individuals)
 Aware but no action
What?
1 Thaw/Freeze
Where?
Roads, Pipes
When?
Winter
2 Fluctuation in
temperature
3 Flash Flood
CGS
All year
Low lying areas
Spring/summer/fall
4 Drier weather
CGS
All year
1 What do we do
with the data
Not available to
public
How?
Fluctuation in
temperature
Intense precipitation
within a short time
period
Frost penetrates
deeper, not enough
protection for
vegetation, more
movement
Data collection,
province,
environment
Canada, develop
standards
2 How do we deal
with events when it
13
happens
3 Warning more
people
4 Emergency
preparedness ( $ )
5 Gap between city,
NDCA, community
1 Storm water
management
2 Water and waste
water
3 tree species
4 flood forecasting,
urban and rivers
5 source protection
1 storm water
management
2 water, wastewater
3 tree planting
4 flood management
5 lake water quality
source protection
1 extreme events
2 design standards,
idf curves
3 concerns of lake
water lowering
impacts on drinking
water and aesthetic
4 sewage
Roof leaders
More monitoring
statistics
Storm water
management reports
In development
review
Design frequencies
Throughout city
Biodiversity plan
Planting mix
COOP Unit, NDCA
Waterways, dams,
sewage, drains
Emergency response Dam break analysis
plan (NCDA)
plan, training people
in emergency
management
NDCA aware but
2005 but no changes Cost and time is
curves not updated
made – still using 50 main barrier (plus
yet, no recognition
yr storm event
developer
at community level
design
opposition), may
need to move to 5 or
10 yr storm event
Shorelines, water
Concern re docks,
Release of trapped
users, wells
water lines freezing toxic metals; legacy
of Sudbury mining
history
Kelly Lake, Simon
May need tertiary
Lake (tailings pond),
treatment
Junction Creek
(community
concern)
(ii) What data do you have or lack to prove the growing impacts of climate change in the
watersheds? What do you feel are the priorities to begin developing a strong community
based climate change adaptation strategy?
14
What data?
1 GIS database –
lack
2 collecting data to
develop baseline
information
1 forecasting radar,
early warning data
Where?
Information is from
various sources, it
needs to be
compiled and
collated into a
mainframe for
inclusive
accessibility and
staff to update on a
regular basis (staff
to support the
system)
Being able to
identify vulnerable
areas, people
1 lack of data on
watersheds
2 sub watersheds
and microclimates
near water supplies
1 lack of data on
watersheds
2 subwatershed data, Throughout city
pervious, impervious
surface
1 rainfall to predict
Stormwater model
idf curves available
for urban areas
needed
2 need a champion
Building code is
changing – future
standards (snow
load, wind, sewage,
flooding, water
conservation,
prevention of direct
connections)
3 water budget (tier
Not enough water in
2 done) source water the valley in future
protection
growth scenario
(Vale Inco)
Private wells also
impacted as well as
public wells – could
What years?
Availability?
Need modelling
Limited
15
impact Health unit
(iii) From the perspective of the City and N.D.C.A., what are the current and most likely
future impacts from increased extreme weather events in terms of precipitation and
climate altering events? What strategies are/will be required to deal with these impacts in
the different seasons?
What?
1 Roads
Where?
CGS
2 sewers
CGS
3 emergency
management
4 solid waste
CGS
5 lakes
CGS
6 power system
1 municipal
property
infrastructure,
private property
damage
2 power outage
– evacuation
1 flooding
events
2 snow events
1 flooding
events
2 snowfall
events
3 wind events
1 snow
(plowing) and
rain in winter
When?
Basements, lift
station
Strategies?
Emergency
preparedness
plan for each
area
Back up,
bypassing into
lakes
CGS
Urban centers
How?
Collapse,
washouts
Mobilizing
staff to pick up
waste
Blue/green
algae, sewage
backup
Anytime
Throughout
year
Rain events,
quicker thaws
More variation
in events
Impacts on
roads,
operation costs
Volunteer org.
to get staff to
hospitals
Dams, pumps
Better
monitoring and
analysis locally
16
to predict local
weather, needs
more money,
operational and
capital – need
people to do
this, data is
there
2 more
emergency
management
3 equipment
Public works
depot and
garages – where
are they located
4 need to know
what Sudbury
Hydro has
planned for
disaster
Also do we
have the
equipment (ie
boats)?
Need better
communication
among the
groups
Notes
GIS database – have all the layers; what areas would need assistance; asap
Afternoon session
(i) What are the key issues/challenges/opportunities when trying to incorporate future
climate change impact scenarios into land use or conservation planning, existing
infrastructure management, planning for future development and infrastructure servicing,
etc.?
Issues
1 GIS data management
Challenges
Large data gaps
Opportunities
Increase reliability of data
issues
17
2 predict and quantify
Large data gaps
change
3 ground truthing
4 process and substance
1 lack of data
2 lack of information
management
3 lack of funds/commitment
to pursue #1 and 2
4 lack of understanding of
the implications of not
addressing climate change
adaptation (human,
financial, legal)
5 Develop specific strategies in the OP and various operational plans to monitor and
repast in implementation. Will need to fund GIS management/mapping/climate data
collection at strategic locations etc to further efforts and results in adapting to climate
change
1 Better GIS information
Large data and mapping gaps Opportunities for
base for city
collaboration
2 ability to predict and
Past first level of
quantify the change
understanding how does it
effect other levels
3 not ground truthing the
Cost of undertaking
Interns projects
predictions
4 updating of land use
At time of official plan
planning in official plan
review
5 storm water out of
Legal and cost
sanitary system
1 base data
Accurate, current, what
Integration
format, do we have it
2 current plans
Looking at future not past
Include climate change
and present
issues in future plans
3 existing regulations
Conflicting objectives
Coordination of regulation
4 risk analysis
Independent of all
Coordination of all data
infrastructural
sets, testing
departments/functions
1 compatibility of
Needs to be top down – has
City is still growing, can
infrastructure – bigger pipes to start with politicians to
make changes now
into smaller
push against developers
Review of official plan
City has to change standards every 5 years
first, then require same of
Development charges
developers
(maybe)
18
(ii) What are some of the specific items/strategies required to enable adaptation planning
and implementation in the community for water resources, infrastructure
management/protection, etc.? (dollars; better climate data and modelling information;
human resources;
political support; other tools?)
Items/Strategies
1 ground truthing
models
2 better integration
between operational
authorities
1 incorporate as part
of regular program
planning and
strategic planning
1 small microclimate
stations and
monitoring stations
2 incorporate as part
of program planning
3 watershed
modelling
1 Leadership and
vision
2 automation of data
3 incentives to
change
4 resources (funding)
5 education and
outreach
1 storm sewer
modelling
2 storm water
management plans
3 community
awareness to lead to
political will
4 enforcement of new
bylaws
Where?
Surface watersheds
When?
Who?
Most active
resolution at CA or
municipal level but
level of integration
is low
(yes to all
suggestions above)
Needs prov/fed
integration
Providing tools and
systems to cope with
climate change
Decision makers
New standards for
development
To facilitate
development of
systems
Help people to cope
and protect
Need to identify the
risk (e.g. flood map)
ASAP – hopefully
before a storm
Short term
Need more staff ( $)
19
(i) What should the Sudbury Climate Change Consortium look like and how should it
function?
 Under NDCA like Source Water Protection, linked to all difference services
(funding, provincial ties, Councillors and city staff, MNR)
Vision
What do you expect Greater Sudbury be in 20-50 years from now? What will it look like
in 20-50 years from now in relation to adaptations to climate change?
In 20 years from now, the City of Greater Sudbury and its watershed will be _________
 Protected
 Micro scale watershed (with lakes in mind and with watercourse in mind)
GIS and DTM – base data right
staffing
 Go-trains from smaller communities; better transit; smaller cars; bicycle paths;
maybe traffic circles (unfortunately?); most likely population growth up to 200
000 (with 4 lane highway from Toronto); Sudbury will be tourist destination;
limits on motor boats, more non-motorized recreation; less garbage, more
recycling, composting; move back to smaller communities with amenities; fewer,
larger, more efficient wastewater plants; new developments built to higher
standards
Mission
What will be the aim of the group in regard to climate change adaptations?
The Consortium has for mission to ____________________
 lowered risk/increase reliability
 manage extreme events
 champion climate change adaptation, improve public safety, develop mitigation
strategies protect watershed and people, coordinate organized response
 establish a plan, guidelines, risk management and analysis – determine where
should the money be invested; also mitigation
Partnership model
Frequency of meetings? ___Quarterly – workshop every 2nd year (x2), quarterly (Feb,
June, Sept, Nov)________________
Decisions by Consensus ___everyone agreed_________ or Votes _____________
20
Draw or write how you see the interactions or the model…
 NDCA
SPA Climate Change Authority  Working group of members and technical
committee modelled after soils study

Insurance industry – a resource or a stakeholder?
Are you in agreement with having a consortium? Yes
Working Groups – permanent, Task forces - temporary

Members would need to have a stake; would need to have a working group or
staff to move agenda forward; SSS model; partnership model

Who owns this, who carries the cost, what authority does this group have, need
direct tie to council and ministry

Key stakeholders: NDCA, municipality, health unit, educational institutions (with
financial commitment) and buy in from the rest; keep it small so consensus works,
finances may mandate who has a vote
Composition
How many people in the group? ___20-30; steering committee with working
groups_________
Who should be in the group?
Who?
Why?
1City of Greater Sudbury
2 NDCA
3 Ministry of Natural Resources
4 Ministry of the Environment
5 Sudbury and District Health Unit
6 Laurentian University
7 CCARIN
8 Freshwater ecology unit
9 Chamber of Commerce
10 Hydro utilities
11Educational
12Communications
13 CGS (Earthcare, Emergency
preparedness, water wastewater, roads and
drainage, VETAC, planning, social services
– vulnerable individuals)
1 Health Unit
Monitoring
2 Hospital
Medical
3 utility companies (hydro, gas, phone)
4 communication with media – messaging
21
5 risk managers
1 water and wastewater
2 roads
3 municipality (planning, assets,
infrastructure)
4 utilities
5 health unit
6 education (school system – all levels)
7 railways
8 development community
9 fire/police
10 EMS
11 seniors (and different age groups)
12 industry
Must be at director level; each group needs
a champion; need all the groups that will be
impacted, avoid wrong assumptions
Needs commitment for staff and time
Appendix D
List of Participants
June 5, 2009 Planning Session
Name
Organization/Department
Bob Rogers
Chair, N.D.C.A.
Dr. Liette Vasseur
Brock University
Chantal Mathieu
C.G.S., Environmental Services
Akli Ben-Anteur
C.G.S., Water/Wastewater Services
Nick Benkovich
C.G.S., Water/Wastewater Services
Lynn Fortin
C.G.S., Emergency Services
Al Bonnis
N.D.C.A.
Judy Sewell
N.D.C.A. (DWSP)
Sharon Bennett
N.D.C.A. (DWSP)
Nels Conroy
N.D.C.A., Source Protection Committee
John Dennis
Vice-Chair, N.D.C.A.
Wendi Mannerow
C.G.S., Water/Wastewater Services
Danielle Braney
C.G.S., Capital/Asset Services
Robert Falcioni
C.G.S., Roads, Drainage & Transportation
Emily McMillan
Laurentian University
Paul Sajatovic
N.D.C.A.
Bill Lautenbach
C.G.S., Growth & Development/Planning
Stephen Monet
C.G.S., Planning Services
Paul Baskcomb
C.G.S., Planning Services
Cindi Briscoe
C.G.S., Community Development (R.C.E.)
NOTE: A number of senior City staff could not attend on June 5th. However, they
are committed to this initiative and will be actively engaged.
22
Appendix E
Climate Change Position Paper
Positioning the Nickel District
Conservation Authority
within the City of Greater Sudbury
in a Future Climate
by
Liette Vasseur, Brock University
Emily McMillan, Laurentian University
March 2009
For the Nickel District Conservation Authority
23
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 25
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 26
2. What is Climate Change?.............................................................................................. 28
3. The State of Climate Change in the Nickel District and the City of Greater Sudbury . 30
Current climate.............................................................................................................. 30
Trends ........................................................................................................................... 33
Future scenarios ............................................................................................................ 34
4. Potential Impacts and Current Priorities ....................................................................... 35
a. Impacts on Natural Ecosystems ............................................................................ 35
b. Impacts on the Managed Environment ................................................................. 35
c. Impacts on our Water Resources .......................................................................... 36
5. Building a Community Response to Climate Change .................................................. 37
6. Action Items .................................................................................................................. 38
1. Initiate a Sudbury Consortium on Climate Change: ............................................... 4
2. Protection of Lakes: .............................................................................................. 38
3. Enhancement of Flood Warning System: ............................................................. 38
4. Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Upgrades: .................................................. 38
5. Improved Modelling: ............................................................................................ 39
6. Protect Municipal Drinking Water: ...................................................................... 39
7. Prevent Water-borne Diseases and Contamination: ............................................. 39
8. Public Education: .................................................................................................. 40
8. Conclusion: The Role and Place of NDCA, the City and Other Partners.................... 40
9. Glossary ....................................................................................................................... 41
10. List of Acronyms ....................................................................................................... 42
24
Executive Summary
The Nickel District Conservation Authority (NDCA) has been working, through
its core programs and Drinking Water Source Protection (DWSP), to assess the potential
impacts of climate change on municipal infrastructure and water resources and to
determine what actions will be needed to address these impacts in the City of Greater
Sudbury. Watershed management has always dealt with dynamic natural systems and
processes and now must expand to address the potential impacts of climate change, with
special attention paid to issues surrounding drinking water. This Position Paper sets forth
the context and background for the challenges that we face as a city regarding climate
change and sets out an action agenda focused on protecting the watershed residents.
It is critical to acknowledge that climate change will impact our region,
particularly increasing pressures on the quality and quantity of our limited water supplies.
All citizens of the city will need to be engaged in order to implement the needed actions
and activities that will protect our water resources and ensure that our watershed becomes
more resilient in order to face the upcoming challenges. These preparations require short,
medium and long term planning and all partners must work together to implement
strategies for adaptation.
With a changing climate, Sudbury can expect warmer summers and winters, with
more frequent and severe extreme events, including floods and storms. Changes in
seasonal precipitation are uncertain; however, the city is likely to see an increase in
precipitation as rainfall. Various sectors of the community will be impacted, including
the natural environment, our infrastructure, industries such as tourism and agriculture,
and our drinking water. We can expect a decrease in water quality with more algal
blooms and lower lake levels, impacts that may be worsened by increased development
on waterfront properties.
This Position Paper outlines eight key action items needed to be able to protect
our watershed resources and residents from the changing climate. These are: integrating
climate change into source water protection plans, monitoring and protecting our lakes,
upgrading our water and wastewater infrastructure, enhancing our flood warning system,
increasing public education, conducting scientific modelling, and working to prevent
water-borne diseases and contamination.
In uncertain economic times, municipal leaders must look for opportunities to
boost the economy as well as considering protection of the environment. Investing in our
infrastructure and in education fulfils both needs and is an investment in our future.
Clean and healthy drinking water requires protecting its sources, which in these changing
times requires planning and adaptation strategies. The community is depending on its
elected and non-elected leaders to take climate change issues into consideration and to
take action while there is still time. Greater Sudbury has proven itself to be a leader on
the world stage in terms of environmental restoration. It can do so again in terms of
environmental protection.
25
1. Introduction
Resource-based communities, especially those in northern or rural regions of
Canada will face unique challenges due to the impacts of climate change. Reliant on
natural resources to support economic activities, these communities are highly sensitive
to changes in the environment. Vulnerability in the ecosystem will lead to a change in
the resilience of the communities and their capacity to adapt to changes. There is a danger
that some natural resources may be unable to adapt to upcoming climatic changes and
thus may decline or disappear. For communities where the natural resources are the
lifeblood of the economy, particularly those that rely on only one type of resource,
climate change may have a dramatic impact on people’s way of life. Limited economic
diversity can limit the potential for the community to respond and adapt to changes in the
resources and the fear is that this will lead to unsustainability and limited economic
development of the region. On the flip side, there is still time to respond, as long as there
is the will. Needed changes to adapt to climate change can provide economic
opportunities as well as opportunities for community building and education.
The City of Greater Sudbury is a vibrant bilingual and
multicultural community that depends on healthy natural resources for
most of our socio-economic activities. Home to approximately 158,000
people (Canada Census 2006), the city boasts the varied geography and
ecosystems typical of the Canadian Shield. Within this mid-sized urban
municipality, 28.2% of the population indicates French as their first
language, 4.6% is of Aboriginal origin and the remaining 67.2% is
mostly English but includes many other languages such as Finnish, Ukrainian, and
Italian. Along with the rest of Canada, the City of Greater Sudbury is experiencing a
noticeable aging of the population, a trend which is expected to continue until at least
2021.
The City of Greater Sudbury serves as the regional capital of Northeastern
Ontario - a market estimated at 550,000 people. Located 390 kilometres north of Toronto,
290 kilometres east of Sault Ste. Marie, and 483 kilometres west of Ottawa, the City of
Greater Sudbury occupies a central location in Ontario at the convergence of two major
highways, Highway 69 South and Highway 17 (Trans-Canada Highway). The City is
centred in and around the "Sudbury Basin" in Northern Ontario, which contains the
world’s largest nickel deposit, likely formed as a result of a meteor strike millions of
years ago. The total area of the City of Greater Sudbury is 3,627 square kilometres
including water bodies, making it the largest municipality in Ontario based on total area.
The City of Greater Sudbury contains 330 named lakes within its municipal boundaries.
More than twenty-five years of economic diversification effort and the recent
amalgamation of several small towns into one municipality means that the impacts of
climate change will be wide-ranging, affecting everything from old growth forests to the
largest mining camp in Canada, all within one local political jurisdiction. An analysis of
the Ontario data from the 2001 Canada Census reveals that the city's labour force profile
has diversified significantly over the last three decades. Service activities, from retail to
26
producer services, now employ 80% of Greater Sudbury's labour force, and the remaining
20% works in the goods-producing sector. Health care, educational services and public
administration all play an important role locally, reflecting Greater Sudbury's position as
a regional service centre for Northeastern Ontario, as well as the continued development
of our health care and education infrastructure. In 1971, Inco (now ValeInco) and
Falconbridge (now Xstrata Nickel) dominated the local economy, employing over 25,000
people. In the past 30 years, new mining technologies have helped increase productivity
while reducing overall employment in the mining sector. Despite this decline in the
number of mining jobs, the demand for products, services and technological advancement
has fuelled the development of an important mining services cluster.
In contrast to arctic or coastal communities, cities like Sudbury have not yet
suffered the impact of climate related damage, such as from extreme weather events.
This has led to a focus on other environmental issues, such as air quality, with little
incentive to understand the potential impacts of climate change on people's livelihood.
However, climate change is already bringing important changes to Sudbury, whether we
are ready for it or not, showing that these changes require consideration in short and long
term planning in several sectors.
Watershed management must expand to address the increasingly important issue
of climate change. In managing the watershed, natural processes are always taking place
and flexibility and evolution have always been important as managers are dealing with
ecosystems that are naturally in flux. Climate change will add new challenges when
planning how to mitigate impacts related to land use and how to deal with changes in the
natural ecosystem. Planning will be key in order to be sure we are prepared for the new
stressors that climate change will bring and special attention must be paid to safeguarding
drinking water supplies.
The goal of this position paper is to summarize the main issues that the Nickel
District watersheds and the City of Greater Sudbury face regarding climate change and
discuss potential strategies and directions for adapting to these changes. Various
organizations will have important roles as part of a cooperative approach in adapting to
climate change. The Nickel District Conservation Authority has committed to developing
a Position Paper on Preparing for Climate Change in the Nickel District Watersheds.
Targeting water as the main focus, it has become clear that there is a need for analysis at
the watershed level to identify the main data gaps
and to set priorities. From this, all community
partners must engage in an action plan in order to
protect natural and man-made resources from the
impacts of climate change and thus safeguard our
economy and our way of life.
27
2. What is Climate Change?
Climate change has been a topic increasingly in the news as awareness and
concern increases among the public and among policy makers. An excess of reports
detailing extreme weather events such as hurricanes, flooding and severe droughts are
now often linked to climate change and the consequences are sometimes frightening.
However, how do we know if these events really signify climate change? When
examining climate, it is important to take the long term view. Climate is defined as the
average weather conditions over a long period of time, usually a minimum of 30 years. It
differs from the weather forecast, which details the conditions that will occur during the
period of 24 hours to a few days. A common phrase is “Climate is what you expect,
weather is what you get.” If global conditions are stable, it is expected that an average of
30 years of weather conditions will give us a clear understanding of the climate in a given
region. For example, we know that the climate of Northern Ontario includes generally
cold winters with temperature averages of -10 to -35oC and snow fall varying between 80
to 200 cm, while in the region of Vancouver, BC, the climate is said to be humid
temperate with winter temperatures varying between -2 and 8oC and precipitation from
250 to 600 mm of rain.
Climate conditions have naturally varied over very long periods of time due to
changes in the inclination of the earth and its orbit around the sun. Scientists can
determine what the earth’s atmosphere was like by using ice cores, some of which gives
data from over 400,000 years ago. An immense amount of data has been studied by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), comprised of over 2500 scientists
from 80 countries, and the consensus is that the Earth's climate is being affected by
human activities.
The greatest concern comes from the rapid changes that have occurred in the past
125 years, since the Industrial Revolution and the introduction of coal and other fossil
fuel sources (such as oil and natural gas). The use of these fuels has led to the release of
large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas that reduces the possibility of
the heat trapped around the earth escaping into space. CO2 and other greenhouse gases,
such as methane, act exactly the same way as the glass of a greenhouse, keeping the heat
inside the protective layer of the earth.
Scientists have determined that the recent dramatic increase in greenhouse gases
is linked to increases in air temperatures. Air temperature is only one part of climate, but
it is very important and will effect additional changes such as increased evaporation of
water in some regions (such as in tropical and temperate regions), leading to changes in
wind currents and precipitation patterns. Melting glacier ice will affect ocean currents
and sea level. These disruptions in the climate are leading to a greater frequency of
extreme events, such as heat waves, drought, flooding, and hurricanes. Because of
variation in climatic conditions around the earth, it also means that changes are
happening differently in the various regions. For example, while Northern Ontario may
receive more precipitation in the spring and summer under the scenario of climate
change, the Sub-Saharan region is becoming drier in the spring, leading to greater
28
desertification.
In 2008, a new IPCC report was published stating that human activities leading to
the increase in greenhouse gas emissions are the cause of the current changes observed in
the climate and that these changes are going to continue. The consequences can be very
significant for all of us in different ways but will affect our industries like agriculture and
forestry, our water resources, our health and our health care system. For example, more
frequent and severe droughts in the Prairies may reduce the amount of food available and
increase food prices. Increased ocean temperatures may lead to a greater decline of fish
stock, which will affect many people’s livelihoods. In some regions, extreme weather
events are projected to increase, leading to more damage and human deaths. It is
therefore important for all communities to not only continue their efforts to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions but also to become ready to respond and adapt to these
changing conditions. What does this mean for the Nickel District watersheds and the City
of Greater Sudbury?
29
3. The State of Climate Change in the Nickel District and the City of
Greater Sudbury
In the past three years, a group of researchers in Greater Sudbury, in collaboration
with other organizations such as Environment Canada and Ouranos (a research and
development consortium that brings together 250 scientists and professionals from
different disciplines), have examined the climatic trends for the region with an eye to
what impacts future changes will bring. It was possible to examine the historical trends in
temperature and precipitation related variables and use a Global Climate Model
projection to define the possible changes in climatic conditions in the City of Greater
Sudbury in the 21st century. This section examines these trends and projections. The data
are essential in order to define what systems and components of our community are
vulnerable to climate change, the potential impacts that the region can face and from
there, define what strategies and priorities are needed to be ready to respond to these
consequences.
Current climate
The economy of Sudbury is to some extent dictated by its climate. Infertile soils,
as well as the harshness of the climate, have discouraged agriculture in the Sudbury
region. Based on 1971-2000 data, on average, Southern Ontario cities have 160 frost-free
days, especially those located close to the Great Lakes, whereas cities in Northern
Ontario have a frost-free season of only 50 to 120 days (Source: Canadian Climate
Normals, 1971-2000. Dept. of the Environment, Atmospheric Environment Service,
Canadian Commerce Group, Ottawa). Sudbury is generally frost-free from June until
early September. The economies of Sudbury and other Northern Ontario cities have been
sustained instead by mining, tourism, lumbering and other industries. While some
resource-based sectors might be able to maintain their activities, such as mining, others,
such as agriculture, forestry and tourism, might have more of a challenge in adapting
quickly to climate change.
Based on 1971-2000 climate data for the Greater Sudbury Airport, average daily
maximum highs are, for the month of January -8°C; April 8°C; July 25°C; October 10°C
(http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climate_normals/index_e.html). In July, the
daily temperatures may range between highs well in excess of 30°C and lows below
15°C. Afternoon thunderstorms are fairly common in July. Winter temperatures often
range as low as -35°C, with snowfall each year measured in the metres. Annual mean
temperatures between 1999 and 2005 were over a degree above the 1971-1998 normal.
Sudbury also received less precipitation than normal, whether snowfall or rainfall.
Average annual precipitation is 899 mm, average monthly summer rainfall is
approximately 90 mm, with September normally being the wettest month.
The climate in this area is somewhat modified by the presence of the Great Lakes
to the southwest. Table 1 portrays climate profiles for Sudbury as well as several other
Canadian cities. Figure 1 shows the average yearly temperatures for the Sudbury area
from 1955 to 2005. Note also the range (2-6 degrees Celsius) in temperature of the
30
warmest and coldest years in Sudbury. Maximum precipitation in Sudbury normally
occurs in the summer months, especially in September, whereas the driest time of the
year is usually February. Figure 2 shows the average yearly precipitation values for
Sudbury from 1955 to 2005.
Table 1: Climate Profiles for Sudbury in Comparison with Other Canadian Cities
Location
January
July
Average
Average
Average
Annual
Annual
Annual
Daily Temp.
Daily Temp.
Rainfall
Snowfall Precipitation
Max
Min
Max
Min
(mm)
(cm)
(mm) *
Max
Sudbury
-8.4 -18.6
24.8
13.3
656.5
274.4
899.3
Airport
Montreal (PET
-5.7 -14.7
26.2
15.6
763.8
217.5
978.9
Airport)
Vancouver Int’l
6.1
0.5
21.7
13.2
1154.7
48.2
1199.0
Airport
St. John’s
-0.9
-8.6
20.3
10.5
1191.0
322.3
1513.7
Airport
Edmonton Int’l
-8.0 -19.1
22.2
9.5
374.8
121.4
482.7
Airport
Toronto Pearson
-2.1 -10.5
26.8
14.8
684.6
115.4
792.7
Int’l Airport
Source: Canadian Climate Normals, 1971-2000. Dept. of the Environment, Atmospheric
Environment Service, Canadian Commerce Group, Ottawa.
* NOTE: The snowfall is melted to determine the amount of water, which in turn is used
to calculate the Annual Precipitation in millimetres.
31
6.5
Mean Annual Temperature (°C)
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Figure 1: Mean Annual Temperature Variation for the Greater Sudbury Airport
from 1955 to 2005
Total Annual Precipitation (mm)
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Figure 2: Total Annual Precipitation Variation for the Greater Sudbury Airport
from 1955 to 2005
32
Trends
According to the Köppen Climate Classification (Ahrens 2003), the climate in the
Greater Sudbury area is humid continental (Dfb), humid with severe winters, no dry
season, warm summers. The city is located at about 46 degrees north latitude, north of
Georgian Bay. While not very far north by maritime climate standards, Sudbury is
considered to be in Northern Ontario due to the severity of its climate and the harshness
of the surrounding landscape. Relatively cold temperatures, high incidence of sunshine,
and plenty of snow make it perfectly suited for winter sport, from November to April.
The winters are typical of northern Canada, being both continuous and generally cold.
However, the area has been affected by warmer-than-usual, very dry conditions over the
past few years. Some areas of the city have experienced potential stresses on water levels
and supplies due to low levels of precipitation and high levels of evaporation since the
1990s, mostly during the summer period.
1961-1990
Month (1-Jan…12- Dec)
Temperature Averages:
Jan – Mar: -10.4
Apr – Oct: 12.1
Nov – Dec: -5.7
Annual:
3.5
2040-2069 CGCM1 GA1
Month (1-Jan…12- Dec)
Temperature Averages
Jan – Mar: -5.1
Apr – Oct: 14.4
Nov – Dec: – 4
Annual:
6.4
Figure 3: Temperature Profiles for Greater Sudbury for the Baseline Period of 1961 to 1990, and for
the 2050s or from 2040 to 2069
Source: Canadian Climate Impacts and Scenarios (www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/).
33
Future scenarios
Scientists estimate that Ontario will warm an average of 2°C to 5°C within the
next 75 to 100 years. Warming during the winter months is projected to be greater than
during the summer months, and extreme events, such as floods, droughts and storms will
likely become more frequent and severe. While it sounds like a small difference in
temperature, these changes will have severe consequences for our lives and the
ecosystems that support us. Scientists have warned that is average global temperatures
rise by 2°C, the result could be massive species extinctions and dramatic changes in
ecosystems.
There are uncertainties associated with predicting future climate, but for the City
of Greater Sudbury, climate projections for the shorter term period of 2010-2039 suggest
that the types of changes and impacts experienced in recent years may be increasingly
common in the future due to increased climate variability and change. Projections from
the Canadian Global Climate Model suggest (the CGCM1 GA1 was used in the climate
profiles):
▪ a 2°C increase in mean summer temperatures and a 1°C increase in winter
temperatures;
▪ a slight (1%) precipitation increase (on annual basis), with uncertain changes in
seasonal distribution of precipitation, with more precipitation falling as rain and less
as snow (snowfall season going from October to May (baseline 1961-1990) to
November to April (2020));
▪ more frequent and intense extreme events (e.g. droughts, heavy precipitation,
freezing rain);
▪ shorter winter and longer summer seasons with close to twice as many hot days
(days with  25°C) and 4-6 times as many days  30°C, compared to baseline 19611990 data.
Higher temperatures and longer growing seasons may, over time, enhance forest
and agriculture productivity. However, there are concerns about more frequent
occurrences of extreme events, and other potential impacts from changes in climate.
Greater freezing rain and flooding events in the winter as well as more frequent droughts
in the summer may have significant impacts on the water quality and quantity of the
Nickel District watershed. It is therefore important to understand these consequences and
prepare adaptation strategies for the future.
34
4. Potential Impacts and Current Priorities
Changes in climate in the Greater Sudbury area will lead to specific impacts for
the various sectors in the community. This section describes some of the potential
impacts that will most likely affect the community. While some general impacts on the
natural and managed ecosystems are presented, the second component of this section
focuses mostly on water. The previous study on climate change for the region and the
NDCA watersheds recognizes that our surface and groundwater sources may be most
affected by climate change. This is especially true as the mining sector and the
community continue to develop, putting stress on the water resources.
a. Impacts on Natural Ecosystems
Impacts on natural ecosystems in Sudbury and surrounding area include:
- more fire damage
- new disease vectors
- more invasive species
- decrease in water quality (more eutrophication and algal blooms) and possible
changes in quantity due to higher temperatures and less precipitation
- more extreme weather events
- lower lake levels due to higher temperatures and less precipitation
- sulfur and heavy metal release due to drying up of lakes and marshes
- impacts on cold water aquatic species, such as lake trout, as water temperatures
increase, water levels decrease and development pressures increase
b. Impacts on the Managed Environment
Various sectors will experience impacts from the change in climate:
- Tourism: less snow for skiing and snowmobiling, shorter ice fishing season, less
clean water for boating and swimming
- Municipal infrastructure: more road repair with increased frequency of freezethaw cycles, more power outages, flooding
- Electric Utilities: lower water levels resulting in less hydropower production
- Agriculture: new pests, more extreme weather events, reduction in soil moisture
- Health: heat waves, contaminated drinking water, diseases, contaminated beaches
and swimming areas leading to more enteric related illnesses, pressure on
emergency response units
- Mining: need for large amounts of water
- Building sector: new safeguards needed to protect shorelines and wetlands;
insurance costs
35
c. Impacts on our Water Resources
We have already seen impacts from climate on our water. For example, Sudbury
has already seen warmer than usual conditions leading to potential stresses on
drinking water supplies. As the population grows, it will create increased pressure on
drinking water supplies and place greater development pressure on our natural
ecosystems that supply us with fresh and clean water. Housing development along
shorelines has traditionally included removal of vegetation and use of chemicals such
as lawn pesticides and fertilizers. These practices need to change in order to protect
our water resources. Public education is needed to ensure that watershed residents
understand the future impacts of climate change, such as drought conditions and more
frequent severe storm events.
There is also increased need for more in depth flood risk management planning in
the NDCA watersheds. We have already seen greater risk of flash flooding in the
later winter months in part due to changes in spring rainfall intensity and snowmelt
runoff. There are currently two major flood control dams in the watershed operated
by the NDCA. There is very little detailed information available regarding Sudbury’s
drainage infrastructure (culverts, bridges, ditches, catch basins, storm sewers).
Information including type, size, location, age and conveyance capacity is vitally
important. A database of hydraulic information for city culverts has been
recommended in the case study on Greater Sudbury conducted by the Canadian
Council of Professional Engineers as part of Canada’s First National Engineering
Vulnerability Assessment of Public Infrastructure, released in March, 2008. Storm
water management is recognized as vitally important to protect our watershed
resources and residents. All partners must be responsible for necessary storm water
management adaptation strategies.
The first generation Source Protection Plan being prepared by the NDCA for
municipal drinking water supply in Sudbury needs to include climate change
considerations. With climate change, water temperatures are expected to increase and
water levels to decrease which could lead to increased human health impacts, and put
significant pressure on our infrastructure. Increased development along the shores of
the lakes used for municipal or private drinking water supplies will only make these
problems worse. Therefore, we need stringent development standards for shorelines.
Looking to the future, Lake Wahnapitae could become the primary municipal
drinking water supply source. Steps need to be taken now to protect this vitally
important water resource.
36
5. Building a Community Response to Climate Change
Knowing the potential impacts of climate change is one thing, however, being
able to respond and adapt to these changes is another. The NDCA and the City of Greater
Sudbury are committed to organize a plan of action that will help our city adapt to the
changes, thus better preparing the community to deal with the consequences of climate
change and maintain their livelihoods and prosperity.
The key points of this position paper are that in order to succeed in this
strategy, the NDCA and the City of Greater Sudbury acknowledge that:
 water supplies are limited and climate change (especially the projected extremes
in weather) will mostly likely increase pressures on water quality and quantity;
 we will need to work with all residents to implement actions and activities that
will protect our resources;
 through these actions, we can make the watershed more resilient to face the
changes; and
 short, medium and long term planning and programming priorities of the
NDCA and the City of Greater Sudbury will be essential in achieving these goals.
Since all of us will be affected by these changes over time, it is therefore the
responsibility of all of us to work toward more environmentally friendly management. A
healthy environment for a healthy community is vital in a city such as Greater Sudbury
where natural resources, especially water resources, are the pride of the communities.
The NDCA and the City of Greater Sudbury both play an important role in the protection
of our watersheds and in the quality of life in the community. The Healthy Community
initiative in Greater Sudbury has been essential to bring stakeholders together and has
lead to its designation as a UN Regional Centre of Expertise (RCE). As stated by Mayor
John Rodrigez (City Report 2007): "With that initiative, we set out to build a healthy,
sustainable community where economic, environmental and social considerations are
given equal weight and where everyone has a share in the benefits of development. Our
designation as an RCE reaffirms Council's commitment to develop and implement an
action plan that will result in a healthier community.” It is therefore important for this
community to support adaptation strategies that will help maintain its long term
prosperity in a healthy natural environment.
37
6. Action Items
Greater Sudbury already has some capacity to adapt to climate change. Based on a
variety of indicators such as economic wealth, technology transfer, information and
skills, infrastructure, advanced post-secondary institution research, and social capital, the
community partners have shown strong resolve to deal with the impacts of and
adaptations to climate change. But there is an urgent need to understand the strengths and
the gaps that we currently have in order to implement adaptation strategies in the
community. The NDCA and the City of Greater Sudbury have identified the following
actions as needed to be able to adapt gradually to the changing climate in terms of
protecting the quality and quantity of our water supply, and dealing with expected
impacts on municipal and storm water management infrastructure.
1. Initiate a Sudbury Consortium on Climate Change: The
NDCA has an opportunity to continue to act as a broker to bring together the
various partners who have a stake in ensuring the City of Greater Sudbury is
able to adapt to climate change impacts. To continue working together, the
NDCA should spearhead a consortium, including partners such as: Laurentian
University, Greater Sudbury Development Corporation, Sudbury and District
Health Unit, Cooperative Freshwater Ecology Unit, Northern Ontario School
or Medicine, MIRARCO, Government of Canada, Government of Ontario,
Science North, ValeInco, Xstrata Nickel, Greater Sudbury Utilities,
EarthTech, Golder and Associates, Cambrian College, Collège Boréal, Greater
Sudbury Chamber of Commerce, and EarthCare.
2. Protection of Lakes: As invasive species become a greater threat to
water quality with warmer summers and continuous movements of boats
between water bodies, the NDCA and the City, in collaboration with research
groups such as the ValeInco Living with Lakes Centre, should maintain a long
term monitoring program and define over time the need for restrictions for
water use and restoration approaches to ensure long term enjoyment of our
lakes.
3. Enhancement of Flood Warning System: As extreme weather
events that include a freeze-rain-thaw sequence in the winter become more
frequent, there will be a need to ensure that the current NDCA warning system
be supported and enhanced in areas more prone to flooding. Re-assessment of
the areas potentially vulnerable to flooding will have to be undertaken on a 510 year basis and consequently redefinition of the warning system will be
needed. In addition, as submitted in 2008 to the City of Greater Sudbury from
the Junction Creek Safety Committee, efforts should be maintained, especially
in the next 2-3 years, to develop a more integrated warning system to avoid
incidents that may occur during flash flooding of all watercourses during
extreme rainfall events.
4. Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Upgrades: With
38
extreme changes in temperatures, especially in the winters, it is expected that
a greater number of water pipes (main and secondary ones) will break due to
freeze-thaw exposure. The City should assess the current status of the water
system and plan on a continuous and medium to long term (5-15 years)
renewal of the pipes in order to ensure adequate distribution and reduce water
loss and leakage due to damage. In addition, the City must ensure that the
wastewater infrastructure will be able to handle extremes and protect the
natural ecosystem.
5. Improved Modelling: The need for data gathering and modelling
remains important to better predict what changes are expected at the
watershed level and understand the consequences of climate change. The
recent analyses were done using various models, some being less adequate for
the region. There is a need for downscaling (i.e. information at the local scale)
and for completing biophysical modelling (DEM) for the watershed in order
to integrate the scenarios, the potential impacts on the watershed and where
actions must be initiated first in order to protect the water supply and
municipal infrastructure for all watershed residents. Through continuous
collaboration between the different partners in the community, as well as
external organizations such as Environment Canada and the Ontario Ministry
of Environment, data can be gathered over the next few years, depending on
funding and other logistic support.
6. Protect Municipal Drinking Water: Work to integrate climate
change into the Drinking Water Source Protection (DWSP) project is vitally
important. The NDCA, Greater Sudbury Source Protection Authority
(GSSPA) and Greater Sudbury Source Protection Committee (GSSPC)
acknowledge that the Assessment Report, and eventually the Source
Protection Plan, must include discussion of climate change, integrating the
protection of the current and potential future municipal drinking water sources
for the community. This is especially important in areas where population is
continuously growing, such as in the Valley, or in areas where most water
supply relies on one or two wells.
7. Prevent Water-borne Diseases and Contamination: With
warmer summers and extreme rainfall events, toxic chemicals can be released
into the water system or lakes and can lead to the proliferation of pests, such
as mosquitoes which can carry diseases such as West Nile virus. It remains
important that the Sudbury District Health Unit, with the City of Greater
Sudbury, maintain the surveillance program and continue to implement a wide
and efficient warning system to alert the community of any type of potential
danger. While the program is already implemented, over the next few years
there will be a need to enhance its role and evaluate how it can be broadened
in order to ensure greater safety in smaller lakes and areas where human
activities occur in a more regular basis.
39
8. Public Education: Education remains essential for all residents of the
watershed to better understand the vital role that lakes and the water supply
play in their lives and the need for their protection, especially in the face of
climate change. To do this, the NDCA, the City of Greater Sudbury, Sudbury
District Health Unit (SDHU) and other partners must continue to support the
Water Festival and continue to enhance exhibits and other workshops in the
region to explain the science and impacts of climate change, and outline the
actions currently being taken by the community to adapt to these challenges.
Over the next 2-4 years, training of city staff and employees of different
industries should be encouraged to help support greater awareness and action
towards the adaptation to a changing climate.
8. Conclusion: The Role and Place of NDCA, the City and Other
Partners
Since its inception, the NDCA has played a critical role in protecting the
watershed residents through integrated watershed management programs. With the
passage of the Ontario Clean Water Act and the establishment of the Greater Sudbury
Source Protection Committee, the NDCA is in a strong position to act as the main broker
to facilitate actions and adaptation strategies to climate change regarding watershed
infrastructure and municipal water supply issues in the community. The City of Greater
Sudbury must be the pivotal management and implementation structure to ensure that
citizens of the watershed are guaranteed water quality and quantity while being protected
in cases of extreme weather events and other impacts, such as algal blooms or other
invasive species.
Of course, other key partners must also be at the table in order to implement
actions and adaptation strategies that are directly relevant to their mandates. This is true
for the Sudbury District Health Unit, Science North, Junction Creek Stewardship
Committee, ValeInco Living with Lakes Centre, Laurentian University, College Boreal
and Cambrian College, etc. It is evident that with the participation of all the citizens in
the Nickel District watershed and the City of Greater Sudbury, the consequences of
climate change may be mitigated through planning and implementing adaptation
strategies.
It is true that climate change will have many other impacts on the Sudbury area.
The current Position Paper is aimed at opening the discussion on how a community that
has met many challenges in the past will take its destiny in hand to define the adaptation
strategies needed to protect its citizens, water resources and infrastructure. The action
items presented here are the first steps in this direction. Considering the enviable position
of the City of Greater Sudbury as a designated UN Regional Centre of Expertise, the
actions and strategies to be acted upon over the next five to ten years can become a global
model, as has been the Re-greening of Sudbury’s natural environment over the last thirty
years.
40
9. Glossary
Adaptation: changes made by a living thing, such as plants, animals, or humans, to
better live within its environment as it changes
Agriculture: activities related to the production of crops and keeping animals to create
products like food or fibre
Algal bloom: Heavy growth of algae in and on a body of water as a result of high
nutrient concentrations
Anthropogenic: Human-caused.
Atmosphere: the layer of air around the earth
Blanket effect: refers to the layer of greenhouse gases that keep the earth warm
Canadian Global Climate Model: a climate simulation model, developed by the
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, for climate prediction, study of
climate change and variability, and to better understand the various processes which
govern our climate system.
Carbon: an element found in all living things and in things made of the remains of living
things (e.g. coal, oil, diamonds, graphite)
Carbon dioxide: gas in the atmosphere and an essential part of the carbon cycle
Climate: overall or long-term average of weather conditions (usually measured using an
average of temperature, precipitation or other climactic factors over a period of 30 years)
Climate change: a change in the climate that is linked to human causes on top of natural
climate fluctuations
Disease vector: an organism that does not cause disease itself but that transmits infection
by conveying pathogens from one host to another.
Ecosystem: the collective relationships between living things within their environment
Fossil fuel: non-renewable source of energy, such as coal, oil and natural gas
Eutrophication: over-enrichment of a water body with nutrients, usually caused by
runoff of nutrients (animal waste, fertilizers, sewage) from the land, resulting in
excessive growth of organisms and depletion of oxygen concentration
Glacier: a large mass of ice which is a result of accumulated snowfall with little snow
melt and flows under its own mass
Global warming: the increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s air and oceans
since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation.
Greenhouse effect: warming that results when solar radiation is trapped by the
atmosphere
Greenhouse gas: A gas in Earth’s atmosphere that traps heat, such as carbon dioxide,
methane, and nitrous dioxide
Ice core: Samples of layered ice from glaciers that may contain dust, chemicals, and
gases that have been deposited with snow over hundreds of thousands of years. These
layers reveal past climate characteristics.
IPCC: a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
comprised of over 2500 scientists from 80 countries
Industrial Revolution: a period in the late 18th and early 19th centuries when society had
a shift in focus from agriculture to industry, with rapid development in technology, as
well as the greater use of fossil fuels
41
Invasive species: any species that has spread beyond its natural range into new locations
as a result of human activity and that usually impacts the functions or services of the
ecosystem that it invades
Precipitation: the quantity of water falling to earth in any form (rain or snow or hail or
sleet or mist)
Storm water management pond: detention basin designed to temporarily store collected
storm water runoff and release it at a controlled rate, preventing erosion and flooding and
maintaining water quality
Sustainability: Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs.
Watershed: A region of land within which water flows down into a specified body, such
as a river, lake, sea, or ocean
Weather: consists of the short-term (minutes to months) variations of the atmosphere
10. List of Acronyms
CGCM Canadian Global Climate Model
DWSP Drinking Water Source Protection
GSSPA Greater Sudbury Source Protection Authority
GSSPC Greater Sudbury Source Protection Committee
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NDCA Nickel District Conservation Authority
RCE Regional Centre of Expertise
SDHU Sudbury District Health Unit
UN United Nations
42