Download Credit Unions and Caisses Populaires SECTOR OUTLOOK 3Q16

Credit Unions and Caisses Populaires
SECTOR OUTLOOK 3Q16
November 2016
Summary Results
In This Issue
 Summary Results….Page 1
 Sector Financial
Highlights… ……….Page 6
 Sector Financial
Statements…… …..Page 7
 Selected Performance
Trends …… ……...Page 9
The information presented
in this report has been
prepared using a variety of
sources, including
unaudited reports submitted
to DICO by credit unions
and caisses populaires.
While DICO believes that the
information contained in
this report would be useful
to readers, and considers
the financial statements to
be reliable, their accuracy
and completeness cannot
be guaranteed.
Ce document est également
disponible en français.
Contact Us:
[email protected]
Throughout this document,
unless specifically indicated
otherwise, credit union
refers to both credit unions
and caisses populaires.
Selected Aggregate Sector Performance Indicators
Total Sector Assets (millions)
Credit Unions (% of Total Sector Assets)
Caisses Populaires (% of Total Sector Assets)
Total Number of Credit Unions and Caisses Populaires
Number of Credit Unions
Number of Caisses Populaires
Avg. Asset Size of Credit Unions and Caisses Populaires ($millions)
Number of Members (000’s)
Regulatory Capital (Aggregate Leverage Ratio)
Credit Unions (Leverage)
Caisses Populaires (Leverage)
Regulatory Risk Weighted Capital Ratio (Class 2 only)
Credit Unions
Caisses Populaires
Number not meeting minimum regulatory capital level
Liquidity
Credit Unions
Caisses Populaires
Asset Growth
Total Loan Delinquency (greater than 30 days)
Credit Unions
Caisses Populaires
Commercial Loan Delinquency (greater than 30 days)
Credit Unions
Caisses Populaires
As at September 30
2016
$50,596
86.6
2015
$45,659
86.0
13.4
14.0
101
76
25
$501
1,612
7.01%
6.73%
8.82%
13.80%
13.28%
17.03%
0
11.20%
11.64%
8.29%
10.8%
0.71%
0.70%
0.82%
1.17%
1.18%
1.11%
111
85
26
$411
1,591
6.91%
6.61%
8.76%
13.35%
12.81%
16.49%
0
10.80%
11.09%
8.98%
10.4%
0.96%
0.97%
0.90%
1.66%
1.72%
1.34%
Year to Date (annualized)
Net Interest Income (Financial Margin)
Other Income
ROAA
Return on Regulatory Capital
Efficiency Ratio (before dividends & interest rebates)
Credit Unions
Caisses Populaires
1.95%
0.58%
0.32%
4.49%
81.2%
2.07%
0.55%
0.35%
4.99%
81.3%
83.6%
68.5%
84.0%
68.1%
Unless stated otherwise, all figures reported are as at 3Q16.
3Q16 SECTOR OUTLOOK, November 2016
1
Economic Overview
ELECTRONIC
PUBLICATION:
The Sector Outlook is
available in PDF format
(readable using Adobe
Acrobat Reader) and can be
downloaded from the
Publications section on
DICO’s website at
www.dico.com.
The Bank of Canada’s October Monetary Policy Report expects economic growth in Canada to be
lower than previously projected in July due to slower near-term housing resale activity and lower
exports. New measures implemented to promote stability in Canada’s housing market (details
provided below) are anticipated to restrain residential investment while lessening household burdens.
Growth in exports in 2017 and 2018 are expected to be slower than previously forecast due to lower
estimates of global demand, US growth that appears less favourable to Canadian exports, and
ongoing competitiveness challenges for Canadian firms. The Bank projects Canada’s real GDP to
grow by 1.1% in 2016 and about 2% in both 2017 and 2018; implying the economy will not return to
full capacity until mid-2018, materially later than forecast in July 2016. Economists expect the
overnight interest rate to remain at 0.5% until late 2017 with some suggesting that another 0.25%
decrease may be required to stimulate the economy. Low rates will continue to put pressure on credit
unions’ profitability as interest rate spreads remain thin.
The level of household debt continues to set new highs largely due to the rapid increase in house
prices in Canada and more specifically in Vancouver and Toronto. In October 2016, the Federal
Finance Minister announced the following series of changes to mortgage lending rules:
NOTE :
1. The mortgage interest rate stress test to qualify for mortgage insurance has been expanded
Income Statement results are
to all mortgage loans made on or after October 17, 2016;
based on aggregate year to
2. Eligibility requirements for low-ratio mortgage insurance have been tightened;
date annualized information
for each credit union.
3. The removal of a tax loophole that permitted foreign investors to claim an investment
Comparative results may not
property as their principal residence thus allowing them to avoid capital gains tax upon sale
always agree with previously
of the property; and
reported information for the
same period as a result of
4. The announcement of consultation for Lender Risk Sharing where lenders will assume the
additional information received
initial portion of the loss on an insured mortgage if it falls into default.
after the reporting date.
These changes are designed to stabilize Canada’s housing market by moderating increasing debt
load, reducing the incidence of “house flipping” and ensuring capital gains are taxed appropriately.
Once implemented, these measures should help reduce the risk of a housing market correction.
DICO will be monitoring the effects of these changes on the credit union sector.
Capital
Results are based on the
latest available
information as at October
25, 2016.
Aggregate regulatory capital for the sector increased to $3.51 billion (7.01% of assets) from $3.12
billion (6.91%) year over year. The increase in capital was largely due to eight credit unions issuing
investment share offerings in the latter part of 2015 that raised approximately $300 million
representing about 75% of the increase in capital. All credit unions met minimum regulatory capital
requirements. Regulatory capital grew by 6.8% year over year and was comprised of:
1. Retained earnings $2.19 B (62.4%);
2. Investment and patronage shares $1.26 B (36.0%); and
3. Membership shares $65 million (1.6%).
Credit unions should ensure their capital management stress testing models appropriately reflect any
potential changes in interest rates.
Growth
Sector consolidation continued over the last twelve months with the number of credit unions
decreasing by 10 to 101, resulting in an increase in the average asset size to $501 million. The
number of credit unions declined by 9 to 76 resulting in an average asset size of $576 million
compared to caisses populaires which decreased by one to 25 with an average asset size of $271
million.
Total assets grew by 10.8% to $50.6 billion, largely due to growth in commercial loans (14.3%), and
residential mortgage loans (11.3%). The proportion of personal loans has decreased from 10.9% to
6.4% of total loans over the past five years while residential mortgages have increased from 56.9% to
59.4% and commercial loans from 27.8% to 29.9%. The following table provides more information on
lending activity.
3Q16 SECTOR OUTLOOK, November 2016
2
Sector Lending Activity
3Q 2016
Percent of
$ Billions
Total Loans
Residential Mortgage Loans $
25.96
59.4%
Commercial Loans
$
13.06
29.9%
Agricultural Loans
$
1.73
4.0%
Personal Loans
$
2.78
6.4%
Other Loans
$
0.14
0.3%
$
43.67
100%
3Q 2015
Percent of
$ Billions
Total Loans
$
23.31
59.3%
$
11.42
29.1%
$
1.61
4.1%
$
2.84
7.2%
$
0.12
0.3%
$
39.30
100%
3Q 2011
Percent of
$ Billions
Total Loans
$
15.63
56.9%
$
7.65
27.8%
$
1.13
4.1%
$
2.99
10.9%
$
0.09
0.3%
$
27.49
100%
Total deposits grew by 9.3%, the highest year over year growth rate in the last 10 years, materially
higher than the five-year average deposit growth trend of 6.9%. This compares favourably against
the average five-year growth rate for the entire Canadian credit union sector of 4.5%. Demand
deposit growth led the way with an increase to 13.6% from 12.0% last year while term deposits
increased by 7.5% year over year from 3.6% the previous year. While depositor behaviour continues
to favour for demand products, the year over year increase in term deposits is the largest increase
since 2Q 2013.
The funding gap, the difference between total loans and total deposits, continues to grow and has
increased from 6.2% in 3Q15 to 7.9% in 3Q16 as credit unions aggressively grow their loan portfolios
in order to increase revenue. There are currently 15 credit unions with a funding gap greater than
10%, including 7 credit unions with funding gaps greater than 20%.
Insured deposits are estimated to be $28.0 billion or 69.3% of total deposits in contrast to the banking
sector with insured deposits of 27% (source: CDIC, Sept. 2016). The level of insured deposits at
credit unions has decreased steadily at an average of 1% per year over the last decade from 81% in
2006.
Efficiency Ratio
Credit Unions
83.6%
Caisses Populaires
68.5%
Banks
65%
The overall efficiency ratio (before dividends and interest rebates) strengthened slightly to 81.2%
from 81.3% in 3Q15. However, it remains significantly higher than large Canadian banks at 65.0%
(2Q16). Collectively, caisses populaires continue to report an efficiency ratio (68.5%) that is closer to
bank results. Caisses populaires benefit from increased economies of scale through an integrated
model where most back office functions (including credit underwriting and adjudication) are shared.
Profitability: Decreasing Over Time
Return on average assets (ROAA) decreased to 32 bps in 3Q16 from 35 bps in 3Q15. The following
table provides the income and expense breakdown for the sector over the last 4 years.
Breakdown of Income and Expenses for Sector
As a percentage of Avg. Assets
Interest and Investment Income
Other Income
Total Income
Interest Expense
Dividend Expense
Loan Costs
Total Expenses
Net Income
3Q 2016
3.31%
0.58%
3.89%
1.07%
0.30%
0.06%
3.57%
0.32%
3Q 2015
3.55%
0.55%
4.10%
1.19%
0.29%
0.08%
3.75%
0.35%
3Q 2014
3.73%
0.57%
4.30%
1.25%
0.26%
0.08%
3.91%
0.39%
3Q 2012
3.98%
0.63%
4.61%
1.41%
0.15%
0.15%
4.24%
0.37%
There has been a 67 bps decrease in interest and investment income (16.8%) over the last four years
as a result of low interest rates driving down rates charged on loans. “Other income” has decreased
by 5 bps over the same period to 58 bps. Credit unions continue to seek alternative sources to
increase income from non-interest earning related sources to make up for the shortfall in interest and
investment income.
3Q16 SECTOR OUTLOOK, November 2016
3
Total expenses decreased by 67 bps over the period (15.8% decrease) led by lower interest
expenses - down 34 bps (or 24.1%) and non-interest expenses - down 36 bps (or 14.7%). All
categories of non-interest expenses decreased over the last five years, led by salaries and benefits
that dropped by 18 bps (13.4%). While credit unions have focused efforts on lowering expenses, it
has not been enough to overcome the 72 bps reduction in gross income, resulting in an overall
decrease in net income of 5 bps (or 13.5%). Credit unions are beginning to explore new avenues to
drive operating expenses down further through economies of scale achieved by pooling resources to
provide shared services.
Credit Risk
Gross loan delinquency greater than 30 days was 0.71% of total loans, down 25 bps from 0.96% in
3Q15. This was due mainly to lower delinquencies in commercial loans (1.17% vs. 1.66%),
residential mortgages (0.46% vs. 0.62%) and agricultural loans (1.07% vs. 1.22%).
In dollar terms, total commercial loan delinquencies decreased from $189.0 million in 3Q15 to $153.8
million in 3Q16 led by a $28 million decrease at three credit unions (with a large portion due to the
resolution of two large delinquent loans at one credit union). Residential Mortgage delinquencies
decreased from $143.6 million to $119.9 million year over year with $23 million of the change due to
accounts moving from 30 - 89 days delinquent to 0 - 30 days delinquent. Total agricultural
delinquencies decreased from $19.6 million to $18.3 million year over year.
The total amount of impaired commercial loans decreased by $13 million year over year to $153.3
million from $166.7 million while the percentage of impaired loans ($) has decreased to 1.17% from
1.46%. During that period, impaired loan resolutions at one credit union account for $9 million of the
improvement in commercial loan impairments.
The following chart shows fluctuations in delinquencies greater than 30 days over the past five years
for different loan types. Commercial loan and residential mortgage delinquencies continue to trend
down from the highs experienced in 2009 and are now at the lowest level seen in over 10 years.
Similarly, loan costs decreased from 0.08% to 0.06% year over year. The decrease in delinquencies
coincides with the findings from the Examinations group that, overall, credit unions have improved
their loan management processes.
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
Q3 11
Q1 12
Personal
Q3 12
Q1 13
Mortgages
Q3 13
Q1 14
Commercial
Q3 14
Q1 15
Q3 15
Agriculture
Q1 16
Q3 16
Total
Loan Mix and Yields
Total loans grew by 11.0% due to growth in all loan categories with the exception of personal loans.
Personal loans decreased by $65 million (2.3%) year over year to $2.78 billion and continue to
represent a declining portion of the total loan portfolio mix at 6.4% from 7.2% in 2015.
Competition in the residential mortgage market and low yields in the bond markets have resulted in
floating and fixed rates that are near historical lows leading to continued strong demand for new
mortgages.
The following chart illustrates the current loan portfolio mix and yields versus the values from 3Q15 and
their notional impacts on gross interest revenues.
3Q16 SECTOR OUTLOOK, November 2016
4
Product
% of portfolio
Change
($M)
% Change
Yield
3Q 2016
Yield
3Q 2015
Notional impact (in Millions) on gross
interest revenues due to change in
2016
2015
Personal Loans
6.4%
7.2%
$
(64)
-2.3%
6.13%
5.82%
portfolio mix
(20.5)
interest rates
7.6
Mortgage Loans
59.4%
59.3%
$
2,643
11.3%
3.71%
3.79%
2.2
(18.3)
Commercial Loans
29.9%
29.1%
$
1,635
14.3%
4.46%
4.69%
16.5
(26.5)
Agricultural Loans
4.3%
4.4%
$
143
8.9%
3.46%
3.74%
(1.7)
(4.6)
Total
100%
100%
(3.6)
(41.8)
Liquidity and Borrowings
Year over year borrowings increased 34.5% due largely to securitization of residential mortgages in
order to make up the funding gap between the growth in assets and deposits. Securitization
programs have increased by 47.0% in 3Q15 while all other borrowings decreased 2.1%. There are
currently 17 credit unions involved in securitization programs. DICO is monitoring the use of
securitization programs due to the heavy reliance of this as a liquidity funding source at a few credit
unions.
Securitization
Total Loans of Residential
($ millions)
Mortgages
($ millions)
3Q 2013
$
32,542
$
32,644
$1,771
$667
$2,438
7.0%
3Q 2014
$
34,360
$
35,798
$2,393
$963
$3,356
8.9%
3Q 2015
$
36,979
$
39,307
$3,490
$1,187
$4,677
11.2%
3Q 2016
$
40,431
$
43,645
$5,129
$1,163
$6,292
13.5%
As at end of
quarter
Borrowings
from Other
Sources
($ millions)
Securitizations
Total
and
Securitizations
Borrowings as
& Borrowings
a % of Total
($ millions)
Liabilities
Total
Deposits
($ millions)
Liquid asset holdings increased by $672 million to $5.16 billion improving the liquidity ratio to 11.20%
from 10.80% in 3Q15. This is mostly attributable to increases in deposits at the leagues/centrals held
for liquidity, and commercial paper, banker’s acceptances and similar instruments. Liquidity at
caisses populaires, (8.29%) remains much lower than at credit unions (11.64%). In comparison,
liquidity of Canada’s banks was approximately 11%.
The following chart provides a breakdown of liquidity sources. The largest source of liquidity is
“Deposits in a League or Central” (72.8%), followed by “Deposits in deposit taking institutions” (7.9%),
“Commercial paper, banker’s acceptances and similar instruments” (6.1%), “Securities secured by
mortgages and guaranteed by CMHC” (5.1%) and “Cash held for liquidity” (4.4%).
Sources of Liquidity
Deposits in a League or Central
Deposits in a deposit taking institution in
Canada
Securities secured by mortgages and
guaranteed by CMHC held for liquidity
Commercial paper, banker's acceptances
and similar instruments
Cash held for liquidity
Other Sources of Liquidity
Total Sources of Liquidity
3Q 2016
3Q 2015
3Q 2014
% of Total
% of Total
% of Total
$ millions
$ millions
$ millions
Liquidity
Liquidity
Liquidity
$ 3,758.3
72.8% $ 3,387.4
75.4% $ 3,115.2
79.7%
$
407.5
7.9% $
423.2
9.4% $
290.1
7.4%
$
264.1
5.1% $
171.2
3.8% $
-
0.0%
$
314.7
6.1% $
139.6
3.1% $
144.9
3.7%
$
$
$
227.3
191.6
5,163.5
4.4% $
3.7% $
100.0% $
222.9
147.5
4,491.8
5.0% $
3.3% $
100.0% $
218.8
139.7
3,908.6
5.6%
3.6%
100.0%
Credit unions are encouraged to stress test their liquidity requirements sufficiently to challenge the
level of liquidity to which they have access and develop alternative contingency strategies to rectify
potential liquidity shortages. Credit unions are also encouraged to monitor and manage their
dependence on a single source of liquidity.
3Q16 SECTOR OUTLOOK, November 2016
5
Sector Financial Highlights 3Q 2016
Selected Bank
Information
ONTARIO SECTOR
% average assets*, Year to date at . . .
3Q 2016
3Q 2015
2Q 2016
1.95%
0.06%
0.58%
2.47%
2.08%
0.40%
2.07%
0.08%
0.55%
2.54%
2.12%
0.42%
1.65%
0.10%
1.55%
2.80%
1.81%
0.79%
83.97%
81.25%
0.40%
0.32%
5.65%
4.49%
83.62%
81.34%
0.42%
0.35%
5.96%
4.99%
79.20%
64.74%
0.71%
0.39%
0.96%
0.47%
12,018
8,876
23.65%
17.15%
101
111
Total Assets ($ millions)
Average Assets per Credit Union ($ millions)
50,596
500.9
45,659
411.3
Median Assets ($ millions)
Regulatory Capital
159.9
7.01%
115.4
6.91%
0
0
11.20%
10.80%
PROFITABILITY
Net Interest and Investment Income
Loan Costs
Other (non-interest) Income
Total Income
Total Non-Interest Expenses (Operating Expenses)
Net Income/(Loss) before Taxes and
Non-recurring & Extraordinary items
Efficiency Ratio (% Operating Expenses to Total Income)
Efficiency Ratio (% Operating Expenses, before dividends & interest rebates
Return on Average Assets (ROA) before dividends etc.
Return on Average Assets (ROA)
Return on Regulatory Capital before dividends etc.
Return on Regulatory Capital
to Total Income)
0.85%
12.96%
5.77%
CREDIT RISK, as at the quarter-end
Gross Delinquency greater than 30 days (%
Gross Delinquency greater than 90 days (%
of total loans)
of total loans)
OFF BALANCE SHEET ACTIVITY
Off balance Sheet Assets ($millions)
(Includes mutual fund sales and administered loans etc.)
Income on Off Balance Sheet Activity ( %
Other Income)
OTHER INDICATORS, as at the quarter-end
Total Number of Credit Unions
4,700,259
(as a percentage of net assets)
Number of Credit Unions below Regulatory Minimum
Liquidity
* Year to date annualized unless otherwise stated.
Totals may not agree due to rounding
3Q16 SECTOR OUTLOOK, November 2016
6
Sector Financial Statements 3Q 2016
Balance Sheet
ONTARIO SECTOR
3Q 2016
3Q 2015
($000)
($000)
ASSETS
Cash and Investments
Personal Loans
Residential Mortgage Loans
Commercial Loans
Institutional Loans
Unincorporated Association Loans
Agricultural Loans
Total Loans
Total Loan Allowances
Capital (Fixed) Assets
Intangible & Other Assets
Total Assets
6,206,247
2,779,969
25,955,598
13,058,030
81,453
40,584
1,729,283
43,644,917
135,997
487,256
393,329
50,595,752
5,660,201
2,844,296
23,312,124
11,422,651
61,671
58,421
1,607,514
39,306,678
130,506
444,772
378,205
45,659,349
12.3%
5.5%
51.3%
25.8%
0.2%
0.1%
3.4%
86.3%
0.3%
1.0%
0.8%
100.0%
12.4%
6.2%
51.1%
25.0%
0.1%
0.1%
3.5%
86.1%
0.3%
1.0%
0.8%
100.0%
LIABILITIES
Demand Deposits
Term Deposits
Registered Deposits
Other Deposits
Total Deposits
Borrowings
Securitization
Other Liabilities
Total Liabilities
16,869,545
13,097,355
10,227,237
237,163
40,431,299
536,895
5,129,247
990,326
47,087,767
14,874,869
12,185,629
9,713,717
229,287
37,003,502
1,094,070
3,490,371
948,522
42,536,465
33.3%
25.9%
20.2%
0.5%
79.9%
1.1%
10.1%
2.0%
93.1%
32.6%
26.7%
21.3%
0.5%
81.0%
2.4%
7.6%
2.1%
93.2%
65,302
2,190,079
1,262,578
(9,974)
3,507,985
72,107
2,051,787
994,347
4,643
3,122,884
0.1%
4.3%
2.5%
0.0%
6.9%
0.2%
4.5%
2.2%
0.0%
6.8%
50,595,752
45,659,349
100.0%
100.0%
MEMBERS' EQUITY & CAPITAL
Membership Shares
Retained Earnings
Other Tier 1 & 2 Capital
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income
Total Members' Equity & Capital
Total Liabilities, & Members' Equity &
Capital
3Q 2016
3Q 2015
(Percentage of Total Assets)
Totals may not agree due to rounding
3Q16 SECTOR OUTLOOK, November 2016
7
Sector Financial Statements 3Q 2016
Income Statement
ONTARIO SECTOR
Canadian
Chartered Banks **
Percentage of Average Assets *
3Q 2016
3Q 2015
2Q 2016
3.15%
3.33%
2.04%
0.17%
0.23%
0.35%
3.31%
3.55%
2.39%
1.07%
1.19%
0.53%
0.30%
0.29%
0.21%
1.37%
1.48%
0.74%
Net Interest & Investment Income
1.95%
2.07%
1.65%
Loan Costs
Net Interest & Investment Income after Loan Costs
Other (non-interest) Income
Net Interest, Investment & Other Income
0.06%
1.89%
0.58%
2.47%
0.08%
1.99%
0.55%
2.54%
0.10%
1.55%
1.25%
2.80%
1.14%
0.20%
0.20%
0.13%
0.08%
0.19%
0.13%
2.08%
1.16%
0.20%
0.21%
0.14%
0.08%
0.19%
0.13%
2.12%
0.97%
0.14%
0.15%
0.08%
Net Income/(Loss) Before Taxes and Nonrecurring & Extraordinary items
0.40%
0.42%
0.99%
Non-recurring & Extraordinary gains/(losses)
T axes
Minority Interests
Net Income/(Loss)
0.01%
0.08%
0.00%
0.32%
0.01%
0.08%
0.00%
0.35%
0.00%
0.20%
0.00%
0.79%
48,753,150
44,097,168
4,708,458,603
Interest and Investment Income
Loan Interest Income
Investment Income
Interest Expense
Interest Expense on Deposits
Interest Rebates & Dividends on Share Capital
Dividends on Investment Capital & Other Capital
Other Interest Expense
T otal Rebates, Dividends & Other Interest Expense
Non-interest Expenses
Salaries and Benefits
Occupancy
Computer, office & other equipment
Advertising & Communications
Member Security
Administration
Other
Average Assets ($000)
0.00%
0.08%
0.21%
0.00%
0.07%
0.22%
0.47%
1.81%
* Year to date annualized
** Source: Canadian Bankers Association, Detailed Financial Statistics.
Totals may not agree due to rounding.
3Q16 SECTOR OUTLOOK, November 2016
8
Selected Financial Trends
Selected Growth Trends
Selected Performance Trends
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
3.75%
0.80%
3.50%
0.70%
3.25%
0.60%
3.00%
0.50%
2.75%
0.40%
2.50%
0.30%
2.25%
0.20%
2.00%
0.10%
1.75%
0.00%
Assets
Loans
0.00%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Financial Margin (L)
Gross Margin (L)
Operating Expenses (L)
ROA (R)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Deposits
Loan Growth
Loan Yields
10.00%
20.0%
9.00%
15.0%
8.00%
10.0%
7.00%
6.00%
5.0%
5.00%
0.0%
4.00%
3.00%
-5.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Personal
Mortgages
Commercial
Total
Personal
Mortgages
Commerical
Total
Sources of Liquidity
Loan Delinquencies - Greater than 30 Days
$MM
3.50%
15.0%
$6,000
3.00%
14.0%
$5,000
2.50%
13.0%
$4,000
2.00%
12.0%
$3,000
1.50%
11.0%
$2,000
1.00%
10.0%
$1,000
0.50%
9.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Personal
Mortgages
Commercial
Other Sources of Liquidity ( R )
Mortgage securities guaranteed by CMHC ( R )
Deposits in League or Central ( R )
Liquidity ( L )
Total
Loan Costs and Return on Assets
3Q16
1Q16
3Q15
1Q15
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
1Q13
3Q12
1Q12
0.00%
3Q11
1Q11
$0
CPs, BAs and similar instruments ( R )
Deposits in Canadian FIs for Liquidity ( R )
Cash held for liquidity ( R )
Deposit Growth
0.30%
0.70%
0.25%
0.60%
0.20%
0.50%
0.15%
0.40%
0.10%
0.30%
0.05%
0.20%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
0.00%
0.10%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Loan Costs (L)
ROA (R)
3Q 2011 1Q 2012 3Q 2012 1Q 2013 3Q 2013 1Q 2014 3Q 2014 1Q 2015 3Q 2015 1Q 2016 3Q 2016
Demand Deposits - Yearly Growth
Term Deposits - Yearly Growth
Registered Deposits - Yearly Growth
Total Deposits - Yearly Growth
Average Total Deposit Growth Rate
NOTE: L refers to the Left Axis and R refers to the Right Axis
3Q16 SECTOR OUTLOOK, November 2016
9