Download China Net Assessment

China Net Assessment
Geography

China’s heartland is the Northern China Plain, the largest river plain in East Asia. It
extends from the Yellow River and is hemmed in by Yanshan Mountains to the north and
Taihang Mountains to the west. To the east there is the Bohai Bay and the Yellow Sea.
To the South the plain extends to the Yangtze River region, and between these two major
rivers is the Han Chinese heartland.

15 percent of China’s land is arable, and most of this is in the river basins and heartland.
This land is very fertile. But it can hardly sustain the massive population it has given rise
to (China has less arable land than the US but five times the people). China’s rivers do
not connect.

Extensive seaboard – Yellow Sea, East China Sea, South China Sea. Gives rise to
wealthy coastal trading culture. In addition the south is mountainous, making it difficult
to move south to north on land, and ports along the coast are isolated – hence maritime
transport is easiest.

The far west of China is mostly vast wasteland, high elevation and extremely dry. Only 6
percent of China’s population lives west of the Tengchong-Aihui line, which divides the
country diagonally from the Yunnan Plateau in the southwest to the northeastern corner
of the Inner Mongolia region.

Inner Mongolia and parts of Heilongjiang are buffers to the north and northeast. In the
north there is the Inner Mongolian plateau and Loess Plateau. In the northeast
Heilongjiang region the geography is mountainous, with forests and several rivers, in
particular the larger Amur River which marks the border with Russia.

Yunnan, and to a lesser extent Guizhou and Guangxi, are buffers to the southwest.
Yunnan and Guizhou together form a plateau leading up to the Tibetan plateau. Yunnan
in particular is a buffer against Southeast Asia. Guangxi is mountainous and neighbors
Vietnam.

Tibet and Xinjiang are massive western buffer regions. Tibet is a plateau that averages
13,000 feet above sea level and leads to the Himalayas; most of East Asia’s major rivers
begin here. Xinjiang is a dry plain with occasional oases, divided by the Tian Shan
mountains, bordering the Himalayas and containing two deep basins (Tarim and
Junngar).

Ancient Silk Road transportation route leads from the North China Plain through Gansu
Corridor and Xinjiang to Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Major land bridge but far from
Han dominated populations, so the route rises and falls in use through history.

Taiwan lies off southern coast across Taiwan Strait, a critical trade route.
Strategic Imperatives

Maintain internal unity in Han Chinese heartland

Control buffer regions

Protect the coast from foreign encroachment

*(Expand outward as capable for trade and defensive purposes)
Grand Strategy
Advantages:
Geography provides fertile farmland and copious natural resources, supporting large workforce
and army. Relative self-sufficiency.
Buffer regions and large population makes foreign invasion difficult.
Long coastline enables trade with foreigners.
Disadvantages:
Large population puts heavy demands on natural resources, multiple ethnicities and languages,
difficult to rule
Centralized government leads to inefficient use of resources, isolation, poverty
Geographic differences leads to regionalization, fragmentation
Coasts difficult to defend and protect from foreign incursion
Buffer regions difficult to control, susceptible to foreign influence

Maintain internal unity, especially in the heartland, through strong central government
control. Ensure food, employment and basic services for poor interior.

Maintain a strong domestic army and police force to control the population and hold the
buffer regions, and maintain a coast guard or navy to defend coastline.

Allow coastal and maritime trade to generate wealth, but do not allow foreign influence
to undermine national unity or central control.

Expand outward as capable to protect coast and control trade networks (Central Asia,
South China Sea)
Strategy

Maintain single party authoritarian regime and ensure unity and cohesion of the various
provinces. Maintain powerful military and internal police to control population, buffer
regions, and defend coasts.

Continue development and economic transformation to maintain high rates of growth,
employment and most importantly social stability. *(Restructure domestic economy to
reduce dependence on exports and promote domestic consumption-driven growth.)

Prevent foreign influences from fragmenting regions or undermining central control.

Avoid military conflict with the United States, except to defend borders. Maintain US
economic and trade partnership.

Promote international trade and political relations with trade and security partners.
Promote China’s position in international organizations (protect against foreign
encroachment through foreign involvement).
Tactics
*China is undergoing serious policy debates, as well as approaching a leadership transition, and
tactics are in flux. There is much room for adjustment going forward.

Keep the Communist Party in power over PLA, state bureaucracy, local governments.
Use control over security forces to suppress dissent or opposition to regime, especially
across provinces. Control domestic information flows to prevent dissent.

Maintain high growth rates, employment and social stability. Allow limited freedoms for
private and foreign enterprise to bring in foreign investment and maintain high export
levels. Redistribute wealth from coasts to the interior to preserve stability.

Use central government funds and state control of financial system to support stateowned companies, industrial and export growth, and regional economies.

Improve economic integration and political relations with Taiwan, while strengthening
military capabilities in case of war. Use security forces to deter “terrorism, separatism
and extremism” in Xinjiang and Tibet and any other dissent in autonomous regions.

Increase military capabilities, modernization, and systems so as to deter foreign threats
(US, Japan, Russia, India, Vietnam) and improve ability to secure supply lines. Develop
strategic outposts or relations in states that abut ocean supply routes to China

Secure access to energy and raw materials by forming relations with producer states,
diversifying supply lines both on land and overseas. Increase economic influence in
Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa to gain access to resources.

Keep the United States tied down in the Middle East through diplomacy. Seek Middle
East stability (discourage war, blockades, sanctions, etc) to secure oil supplies.

Strengthen economic integration with South Korea and Japan to weaken US alliance,
deter conflict and expand buffers.

Support North Korea to avoid crisis or collapse.