Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Oil Shocks
... in the early 1970s. Based on this cost share, and assuming constant returns to scale, even a 100% increase in the price of oil can only translate into an approximately one to two percent decrease in output, notwithstanding the likely counter e¤ects from factor substitutions. Yet the actual decline i ...
... in the early 1970s. Based on this cost share, and assuming constant returns to scale, even a 100% increase in the price of oil can only translate into an approximately one to two percent decrease in output, notwithstanding the likely counter e¤ects from factor substitutions. Yet the actual decline i ...
Should Iraq Dollarize, Adopt a Currency Board or Let Its Currency
... With the world’s second largest proven oil reserves and a relatively small population (though not as small as many Gulf states), Iraq’s future economy will be dominated by the production of oil and the consumption of oil rents. Over time, its oil production is likely to rise – according to energy an ...
... With the world’s second largest proven oil reserves and a relatively small population (though not as small as many Gulf states), Iraq’s future economy will be dominated by the production of oil and the consumption of oil rents. Over time, its oil production is likely to rise – according to energy an ...
Shale oil: the next energy revolution
... dramatic local effects on pricing in areas where shale oil is produced but access to export infrastructure is limited. The US domestic oil price has already decoupled from global indices and imports are forecast to decline (as shown Chart 2 below). Put simply, increased shale oil production could le ...
... dramatic local effects on pricing in areas where shale oil is produced but access to export infrastructure is limited. The US domestic oil price has already decoupled from global indices and imports are forecast to decline (as shown Chart 2 below). Put simply, increased shale oil production could le ...
Shale oil: the next energy revolution The long term impact of
... dramatic local effects on pricing in areas where shale oil is produced but access to export infrastructure is limited. The US domestic oil price has already decoupled from global indices and imports are forecast to decline (as shown Chart 2 below). Put simply, increased shale oil production could le ...
... dramatic local effects on pricing in areas where shale oil is produced but access to export infrastructure is limited. The US domestic oil price has already decoupled from global indices and imports are forecast to decline (as shown Chart 2 below). Put simply, increased shale oil production could le ...
lifting the crude oil export ban: the impact on us
... crude is lifted.5 The boom in oil production has been a boon to manufacturing due not only to its impact on the growth of GDP but also because U.S. industry is highly competitive in producing the capital equipment used to develop shale resources. In addition, the United States has a dominant competi ...
... crude is lifted.5 The boom in oil production has been a boon to manufacturing due not only to its impact on the growth of GDP but also because U.S. industry is highly competitive in producing the capital equipment used to develop shale resources. In addition, the United States has a dominant competi ...
Shale oil: the next energy revolution The long term impact of
... dramatic local effects on pricing in areas where shale oil is produced but access to export infrastructure is limited. The US domestic oil price has already decoupled from global indices and imports are forecast to decline (as shown Chart 2 below). Put simply, increased shale oil production could le ...
... dramatic local effects on pricing in areas where shale oil is produced but access to export infrastructure is limited. The US domestic oil price has already decoupled from global indices and imports are forecast to decline (as shown Chart 2 below). Put simply, increased shale oil production could le ...
Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? - Economic Research
... variable can be used to re‡ect expansion or recession. In these models, the transition between phases is governed by a constant probability process that is not in‡uenced by other macroeconomic forces. For the purposes of policy, however, it may be bene…cial to determine which forces –if any –in‡uenc ...
... variable can be used to re‡ect expansion or recession. In these models, the transition between phases is governed by a constant probability process that is not in‡uenced by other macroeconomic forces. For the purposes of policy, however, it may be bene…cial to determine which forces –if any –in‡uenc ...
Should developing countries constrain resource
... fund as a tool for mitigating business-cycle fluctuations, an issue we briefly discuss as well. However, it may also create the sort of problems discussed above. A spending rule, partly takes care of these problem. ...
... fund as a tool for mitigating business-cycle fluctuations, an issue we briefly discuss as well. However, it may also create the sort of problems discussed above. A spending rule, partly takes care of these problem. ...
impact of oil shocks (revenue) on government revenue
... expenditure has been influenced relatively more. The results also point out the significance of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand, the variations in value of imports are mostly due to the oil revenue fluctuations and als ...
... expenditure has been influenced relatively more. The results also point out the significance of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand, the variations in value of imports are mostly due to the oil revenue fluctuations and als ...
Effects of Oil Price Drop in 2014 on Sudanese Economy
... in everyday life aspects by all countries. Oil being a commodity has its market and therefore its supply and demand. The sudden oil price drop in 2014 affected both net importing as well as exporting countries. Oil exporting countries, being revenue-makers from the production and exportation of oil, ...
... in everyday life aspects by all countries. Oil being a commodity has its market and therefore its supply and demand. The sudden oil price drop in 2014 affected both net importing as well as exporting countries. Oil exporting countries, being revenue-makers from the production and exportation of oil, ...
Business Cycles: The Role of Energy Prices
... increases the world supply of savings, which puts downward pressure on interest rates. Lower interest rates could stimulate investment, partially offsetting the lost consumption spending, and partially restoring aggregate demand. The net result, however, is a reduction in aggregate demand. The reduc ...
... increases the world supply of savings, which puts downward pressure on interest rates. Lower interest rates could stimulate investment, partially offsetting the lost consumption spending, and partially restoring aggregate demand. The net result, however, is a reduction in aggregate demand. The reduc ...
What next for Nigeria’s economy? Navigating the rocky road ahead
... financial crisis was more encouraging. As volatility rippled out from the US-subprime crisis, Brent Crude fell from $145/bbl to below $40 in the space of six months. However, stronger domestic growth fundamentals combined with a weak US$ prevented the Naira falling further than 20% against the dolla ...
... financial crisis was more encouraging. As volatility rippled out from the US-subprime crisis, Brent Crude fell from $145/bbl to below $40 in the space of six months. However, stronger domestic growth fundamentals combined with a weak US$ prevented the Naira falling further than 20% against the dolla ...
World Oil Demand in the short and long run: a cross
... 1. Recent movements in the price of oil (and other commodities) are largely driven by ‘speculation’, which has increased following the financialisation of commodity markets 2. It’s supply and demand, stupid ...
... 1. Recent movements in the price of oil (and other commodities) are largely driven by ‘speculation’, which has increased following the financialisation of commodity markets 2. It’s supply and demand, stupid ...
Supply, Demand, Cartel or Speculation?
... Understanding the factors driving crude oil price developments is essential for assessing their effects. This paper examines four groups classifying a total of some thirty potential determinants of crude oil prices: fundamental factors, i.e. supply and demand, factors relating to the structure of th ...
... Understanding the factors driving crude oil price developments is essential for assessing their effects. This paper examines four groups classifying a total of some thirty potential determinants of crude oil prices: fundamental factors, i.e. supply and demand, factors relating to the structure of th ...
Saudi Arabia's Evolving Growth Mechanism: Patterns Derived from Cointegration Analysis Looney, R.E.
... AFfER MORE THAN 20 years of relatively high oil revenue, Saudi Arabia and other economies in the Middle East remain overwhelmingly dominated by revenue from this source. In addition, while considerable industrial diversification into nonoil sectors has been achieved, conventional analysis has often ...
... AFfER MORE THAN 20 years of relatively high oil revenue, Saudi Arabia and other economies in the Middle East remain overwhelmingly dominated by revenue from this source. In addition, while considerable industrial diversification into nonoil sectors has been achieved, conventional analysis has often ...
Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today
... increase is a direct consequence of the price increase. To model the bilateral trade effects more explicitly the authors conducted a second simulation in which the world market oil price increases from 25 to 60 EUR/barrel. Table 2.1 on p. 14 in wiiw (2008) shows that the EU reduces imports from all ...
... increase is a direct consequence of the price increase. To model the bilateral trade effects more explicitly the authors conducted a second simulation in which the world market oil price increases from 25 to 60 EUR/barrel. Table 2.1 on p. 14 in wiiw (2008) shows that the EU reduces imports from all ...
Gasoline price as social phenomenon
... 1. Statement of problem.3 A comparison of prices for various goods worldwide (with a conversion of national currencies into the US dollars by the market exchange rate) shows that for most part of the goods a relation of a maximum to minimum price is 1:10. It is determined by a difference in margina ...
... 1. Statement of problem.3 A comparison of prices for various goods worldwide (with a conversion of national currencies into the US dollars by the market exchange rate) shows that for most part of the goods a relation of a maximum to minimum price is 1:10. It is determined by a difference in margina ...
Report on the Risks and Impacts of a Potential - Post
... IEA’s WEO 2008 has noted that around $5 trillion (2007 $) of upstream oil investment is needed between 2007-2030. An annual $350 billion (2007 $) on average in both upstream oil and gas investment. • Global oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) expenditure was estimated at $454bn in 2008, acc ...
... IEA’s WEO 2008 has noted that around $5 trillion (2007 $) of upstream oil investment is needed between 2007-2030. An annual $350 billion (2007 $) on average in both upstream oil and gas investment. • Global oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) expenditure was estimated at $454bn in 2008, acc ...
Monetary Policy Report - January 2015
... June 2014 (Chart 2). Until mid-2014, oil prices were fairly stable, since the unexpectedly rapid increase in North American production, especially from U.S. shale oil, was roughly offset by unplanned outages elsewhere in the world. In the second half of 2014, however, some of these outages ended, wh ...
... June 2014 (Chart 2). Until mid-2014, oil prices were fairly stable, since the unexpectedly rapid increase in North American production, especially from U.S. shale oil, was roughly offset by unplanned outages elsewhere in the world. In the second half of 2014, however, some of these outages ended, wh ...
Global Oil Markets and India`s Vulnerability to Oil Shocks
... Changing patterns of vulnerability to oil shocks In a survey of existing literature on developed economies, Schubert and Turnovsky (2011) have concluded that vulnerability of these economies to oil shocks in real economic terms has declined in the recent years. The authors attribute this decline to ...
... Changing patterns of vulnerability to oil shocks In a survey of existing literature on developed economies, Schubert and Turnovsky (2011) have concluded that vulnerability of these economies to oil shocks in real economic terms has declined in the recent years. The authors attribute this decline to ...
On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations Deren ÜNALMIŞ
... stronger anti-inflationary stance of monetary policies and declining oil intensities in the major economies have helped to curb the effects of higher oil prices. As Woodford (2007) argues, however, these explanations are not convincing enough as they ignore the endogenous responses of the real price ...
... stronger anti-inflationary stance of monetary policies and declining oil intensities in the major economies have helped to curb the effects of higher oil prices. As Woodford (2007) argues, however, these explanations are not convincing enough as they ignore the endogenous responses of the real price ...
Do We Need to Go to War for Oil?
... the higher price if the supply of that good falls. But the key is that the supply must fall. Which brings us to the issue of selective embargoes. Imagine that the government of country A currently sells oil to people in country B and wishes to harm people in country B by refusing to sell or by reduc ...
... the higher price if the supply of that good falls. But the key is that the supply must fall. Which brings us to the issue of selective embargoes. Imagine that the government of country A currently sells oil to people in country B and wishes to harm people in country B by refusing to sell or by reduc ...
The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy
... from about $20 a barrel in early 1997 to below $11 in February 1999 (Figure 1). In an effort to arrest the decline in the price of oil, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on several occasions in 1998 and concluded agreements to restrain production.6 The upward trend in prod ...
... from about $20 a barrel in early 1997 to below $11 in February 1999 (Figure 1). In an effort to arrest the decline in the price of oil, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on several occasions in 1998 and concluded agreements to restrain production.6 The upward trend in prod ...
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... particularly for electricity generation. Oil provides almost 90% of the total state energy needs. A significant amount of that oil is used for electricity generation; 78% of electricity needs are met through oil-burning as opposed to a national average of just 3%. Two types of impacts were evaluated ...
... particularly for electricity generation. Oil provides almost 90% of the total state energy needs. A significant amount of that oil is used for electricity generation; 78% of electricity needs are met through oil-burning as opposed to a national average of just 3%. Two types of impacts were evaluated ...
Business cycle fluctuations – Part I
... Whereas historical oil price shocks were primarily caused by physical disruptions of supply, the price run-up of 2007-08 was caused by strong demand confronting stagnating world production. Hamilton: “although the causes were different, the consequences for the economy appear to have been very simil ...
... Whereas historical oil price shocks were primarily caused by physical disruptions of supply, the price run-up of 2007-08 was caused by strong demand confronting stagnating world production. Hamilton: “although the causes were different, the consequences for the economy appear to have been very simil ...
2000s energy crisis
From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under $25/barrel. During 2003, the price rose above $30, reached $60 by 11 August 2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008. Commentators attributed these price increases to many factors, including the falling value of the U.S. dollar, reports from the United States Department of Energy and others showing a decline in petroleum reserves worries over peak oil, Middle East tension, and oil price speculation.For a time, geo-political events and natural disasters indirectly related to the global oil market had strong short-term effects on oil prices, such as North Korean missile tests, the 2006 conflict between Israel and Lebanon, worries over Iranian nuclear plans in 2006, Hurricane Katrina, and various other factors. By 2008, such pressures appeared to have an insignificant impact on oil prices given the onset of the global recession. The recession caused demand for energy to shrink in late 2008, with oil prices falling from the July 2008 high of $147 to a December 2008 low of $32. Oil prices stabilized by October 2009 and established a trading range between $60 and $80.