Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still
... It has been forty years since the oil crisis in 1973/74, which also coincided with the emergence of a new regime in the global market for crude oil, in which oil prices have been largely free to fluctuate in response to the forces of supply and demand.1 This crisis arose when the price of imported ...
... It has been forty years since the oil crisis in 1973/74, which also coincided with the emergence of a new regime in the global market for crude oil, in which oil prices have been largely free to fluctuate in response to the forces of supply and demand.1 This crisis arose when the price of imported ...
Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy: Working Paper 153 (1 MB) (opens in new window)
... through time and as they have developed. For instance, one might expect that economic development for instance, the shift from an agrarian to an industrial to a knowledge economy – is enabling nations to become more capable of absorbing shocks. This might be because of a declining share of energy in ...
... through time and as they have developed. For instance, one might expect that economic development for instance, the shift from an agrarian to an industrial to a knowledge economy – is enabling nations to become more capable of absorbing shocks. This might be because of a declining share of energy in ...
Do Oil Exports Fuel Defense Spending?
... prices, and oil exporters received a windfall economic boost. This wealth transfer caused other concerns. The increased energy prices forced Americans to change their lifestyles. Transportation costs rose, and firms had to raise prices of products despite the current economic troubles. The economy s ...
... prices, and oil exporters received a windfall economic boost. This wealth transfer caused other concerns. The increased energy prices forced Americans to change their lifestyles. Transportation costs rose, and firms had to raise prices of products despite the current economic troubles. The economy s ...
The impact of Crude oilprice volatility on selected Asian emerging economies
... Using the measure of realized volatility constructed from daily crude oil future prices traded on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange), Guo and Kliesen (2005) find that over the period 1984-2004 oil price volatility has a significant effect on various key US macroeconomic indicators, such as fix ...
... Using the measure of realized volatility constructed from daily crude oil future prices traded on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange), Guo and Kliesen (2005) find that over the period 1984-2004 oil price volatility has a significant effect on various key US macroeconomic indicators, such as fix ...
Impact of Oil Prices Fluctuations on Economies in the Age
... 6. Figure 2-5: Percent Change of World GDP and Global Oil Consumption (P.15) 7. Regression statistics for Angola (P.46) 8. Regression statistics for Venezuela (P.49) 9. Regression statistics for Thailand (P.52) 10. Regression statistics for South Africa (P.55) 11. Regression statistics for Algeria ( ...
... 6. Figure 2-5: Percent Change of World GDP and Global Oil Consumption (P.15) 7. Regression statistics for Angola (P.46) 8. Regression statistics for Venezuela (P.49) 9. Regression statistics for Thailand (P.52) 10. Regression statistics for South Africa (P.55) 11. Regression statistics for Algeria ( ...
The political economy of OPEC - Department of Agricultural
... prices. We also build on the technical relation between crude oil and fuels, as described below in Section 6. OPEC’s dominant position in the international oil markets is becoming more prominent over time. OPEC countries are rich in crude oil reserves, and their share of global proven reserves in 20 ...
... prices. We also build on the technical relation between crude oil and fuels, as described below in Section 6. OPEC’s dominant position in the international oil markets is becoming more prominent over time. OPEC countries are rich in crude oil reserves, and their share of global proven reserves in 20 ...
Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences
... Commission were charged with regulating the oil industry. As discussed in Hamilton (1983), they did so by forecasting U.S. oil consumption and setting production targets accordingly, thus ensuring stable oil prices as a rule. Regulators were unable or unwilling to accommodate occasional unanticipate ...
... Commission were charged with regulating the oil industry. As discussed in Hamilton (1983), they did so by forecasting U.S. oil consumption and setting production targets accordingly, thus ensuring stable oil prices as a rule. Regulators were unable or unwilling to accommodate occasional unanticipate ...
Aff Oil DA Classic - Open Evidence Archive
... Oil prices headed toward collapse- Harvard study shows new oil sources are abundant, not a temporary bubble. Vaughan 7/10/12 (Michael Vaughan, Former host of Report on Business Television’s daily business talk show and National Reporter for CBC Television and Radio in bureaus including Parliament Hi ...
... Oil prices headed toward collapse- Harvard study shows new oil sources are abundant, not a temporary bubble. Vaughan 7/10/12 (Michael Vaughan, Former host of Report on Business Television’s daily business talk show and National Reporter for CBC Television and Radio in bureaus including Parliament Hi ...
Historical Energy Price Shocks and their Effects on the Economy
... papers (e.g., Lutkepohl 2012, Melolinna 2012), the original breakdown proposed and continuously improved by Kilian (2008, 2009, 2012) forms the core of the existing consensus. His conclusions are that while oil prices are affected considerably by demand effects and to an even larger extent by specul ...
... papers (e.g., Lutkepohl 2012, Melolinna 2012), the original breakdown proposed and continuously improved by Kilian (2008, 2009, 2012) forms the core of the existing consensus. His conclusions are that while oil prices are affected considerably by demand effects and to an even larger extent by specul ...
Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: A
... with the analysis being mainly done in isolation from the rest of the world.2 Although some of these papers aim to identify the underlying source of the oil shock (demand versus supply), most of these oil-price shocks are taken to be global in nature rather than originating from a particular oil-pro ...
... with the analysis being mainly done in isolation from the rest of the world.2 Although some of these papers aim to identify the underlying source of the oil shock (demand versus supply), most of these oil-price shocks are taken to be global in nature rather than originating from a particular oil-pro ...
Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike:
... Large sustained oil price increases occurred in particular in 1973/74, in 1979/80, in 1990, after 1999, between 2003 and mid-2008, and starting in 2009. Major sustained oil price declines occurred, for example, in the early and mid 1980s, in 1991, after the Asian financial crisis, and in ...
... Large sustained oil price increases occurred in particular in 1973/74, in 1979/80, in 1990, after 1999, between 2003 and mid-2008, and starting in 2009. Major sustained oil price declines occurred, for example, in the early and mid 1980s, in 1991, after the Asian financial crisis, and in ...
Do increases in oil prices precede US recessions?
... Table 2: Dates of oil shocks .............................................................................................. 25 Table 3: Turning points in oil price identified using the Bry- Boschan method .............. 32 Table 4: Turning points in GDP identified using the Bry- Boschan method...... ...
... Table 2: Dates of oil shocks .............................................................................................. 25 Table 3: Turning points in oil price identified using the Bry- Boschan method .............. 32 Table 4: Turning points in GDP identified using the Bry- Boschan method...... ...
Bank of England Inflation Report February 2015
... Bank staff estimate that the recent falls in import prices are likely to be more than offsetting the upward pressure from past rises such that, currently, non-energy import prices are weighing slightly on CPI inflation. There is more uncertainty than three months ago about the extent to which the pa ...
... Bank staff estimate that the recent falls in import prices are likely to be more than offsetting the upward pressure from past rises such that, currently, non-energy import prices are weighing slightly on CPI inflation. There is more uncertainty than three months ago about the extent to which the pa ...
Impacts of the National Biodiesel Program on the Brazilian
... of intermediate goods. Thus, it can be concluded that the program of biodiesel can bring economic benefits to the economy, however in the sectors directly involved in the program. For the Brazilian economy as a whole, the benefits are not as expressive as expected. Key-words: Biodiesel, Minimal, Gen ...
... of intermediate goods. Thus, it can be concluded that the program of biodiesel can bring economic benefits to the economy, however in the sectors directly involved in the program. For the Brazilian economy as a whole, the benefits are not as expressive as expected. Key-words: Biodiesel, Minimal, Gen ...
Oil Prices and Consumer Spending
... oil price increases and decreases may have a negative effect on GDP growth if oil price effects work primarily through allocative channels.5 Of course, oil price increases may affect aggregate spending through other widely known channels. For instance, because oil price increases lead to income tran ...
... oil price increases and decreases may have a negative effect on GDP growth if oil price effects work primarily through allocative channels.5 Of course, oil price increases may affect aggregate spending through other widely known channels. For instance, because oil price increases lead to income tran ...
mmi09 Peersman 9031972 en
... central banks of oil-importing countries are also confronted with higher inflation, but the output situation and hence the appropriate policy reaction of the ECB can be very different. In particular, in case of increased worldwide economic activity, the Euro area itself could be in a boom or indirec ...
... central banks of oil-importing countries are also confronted with higher inflation, but the output situation and hence the appropriate policy reaction of the ECB can be very different. In particular, in case of increased worldwide economic activity, the Euro area itself could be in a boom or indirec ...
Thesis - Kyiv School of Economics
... which is confirmed empirically by now. Moreover, an additional step is undertaken, so that the factors, which may explain this decline, are formally determined. Employing data from 19 industrialized countries and estimating augmented Phillips curve model with error correction term, the author proce ...
... which is confirmed empirically by now. Moreover, an additional step is undertaken, so that the factors, which may explain this decline, are formally determined. Employing data from 19 industrialized countries and estimating augmented Phillips curve model with error correction term, the author proce ...
Monerary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks
... consumption is also taken into account. Changes in oil prices act as a distortionary tax on labor income and amplify the monetary policy trade-o. The lower the elasticity of substitution between energy and other consumption goods, the larger is the tax eect and the more detrimental are the consequ ...
... consumption is also taken into account. Changes in oil prices act as a distortionary tax on labor income and amplify the monetary policy trade-o. The lower the elasticity of substitution between energy and other consumption goods, the larger is the tax eect and the more detrimental are the consequ ...
Privatization and Nationalization Cycles
... Why is the process of institutional innovation so volatile and even subject to reversion, particularly in developing countries? While the process of technological innovation generally follows a pattern of continuous progress, the process of institutional reform takes a more complex, cyclical pattern ...
... Why is the process of institutional innovation so volatile and even subject to reversion, particularly in developing countries? While the process of technological innovation generally follows a pattern of continuous progress, the process of institutional reform takes a more complex, cyclical pattern ...
Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth
... deemed to have a higher quality. Yet despite this difference in quality, most energy-economic analyses assume that a BTU of coal has the same economic utility as a BTU of electricity. Consequently, the substitution of high-quality energy sources, such as electricity, for low-quality energy sources, ...
... deemed to have a higher quality. Yet despite this difference in quality, most energy-economic analyses assume that a BTU of coal has the same economic utility as a BTU of electricity. Consequently, the substitution of high-quality energy sources, such as electricity, for low-quality energy sources, ...
Oil Scarcity, Growth and Global Imbalances
... energy consumption in China. As a result, China’s share of world consumption of primary energy has risen rapidly (bottom panel), and China is now the largest energy consumer in the world (International Energy Agency—IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2010). Future energy consumption will depend largely on t ...
... energy consumption in China. As a result, China’s share of world consumption of primary energy has risen rapidly (bottom panel), and China is now the largest energy consumer in the world (International Energy Agency—IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2010). Future energy consumption will depend largely on t ...
Oil Prices and Consumption across Countries and U.S. States
... across the first and the second year after the shock.4 The top half of Table 1 summarizes the results from the VAR specification that allows for asymmetric effects of oil shocks. The benchmark VAR does not impose any restriction on the joint contemporaneous comovement of oil production and oil price ...
... across the first and the second year after the shock.4 The top half of Table 1 summarizes the results from the VAR specification that allows for asymmetric effects of oil shocks. The benchmark VAR does not impose any restriction on the joint contemporaneous comovement of oil production and oil price ...
Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination Francesco Ravazzolo Philip Rothman
... without OOS verification is likely to be spurious, with an OOS approach inherently involving less overfitting, is not compelling since there is ample opportunity for the researcher to data mine in a simulated OOS study, and because data snooping adjustments can be made to both IS and OOS tests. Under ...
... without OOS verification is likely to be spurious, with an OOS approach inherently involving less overfitting, is not compelling since there is ample opportunity for the researcher to data mine in a simulated OOS study, and because data snooping adjustments can be made to both IS and OOS tests. Under ...
A Monetary Explanation of the Great Stagflation
... data.4 Stagflation is defined as periods of low or negative output growth, and inflation that is high by historical standards. There were three episodes in which inflation, as measured by the growth in the GDP deflator, exceeded nine percent per annum. In two of these three episodes real output con ...
... data.4 Stagflation is defined as periods of low or negative output growth, and inflation that is high by historical standards. There were three episodes in which inflation, as measured by the growth in the GDP deflator, exceeded nine percent per annum. In two of these three episodes real output con ...
Economic Outlook - Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
... The global oil market has started returning to balance. US oil production fell by over 1 million barrels per day (bpd) between April 2015 and September 2016 due to the sharp contraction in US drilling activity. In addition, OPEC pledged to cut 1.2 million bpd of production in the first half of 2017. ...
... The global oil market has started returning to balance. US oil production fell by over 1 million barrels per day (bpd) between April 2015 and September 2016 due to the sharp contraction in US drilling activity. In addition, OPEC pledged to cut 1.2 million bpd of production in the first half of 2017. ...
2000s energy crisis
From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under $25/barrel. During 2003, the price rose above $30, reached $60 by 11 August 2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008. Commentators attributed these price increases to many factors, including the falling value of the U.S. dollar, reports from the United States Department of Energy and others showing a decline in petroleum reserves worries over peak oil, Middle East tension, and oil price speculation.For a time, geo-political events and natural disasters indirectly related to the global oil market had strong short-term effects on oil prices, such as North Korean missile tests, the 2006 conflict between Israel and Lebanon, worries over Iranian nuclear plans in 2006, Hurricane Katrina, and various other factors. By 2008, such pressures appeared to have an insignificant impact on oil prices given the onset of the global recession. The recession caused demand for energy to shrink in late 2008, with oil prices falling from the July 2008 high of $147 to a December 2008 low of $32. Oil prices stabilized by October 2009 and established a trading range between $60 and $80.