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The following document, entitled Beyond California: An International Perspective on Sustainability of Irrigated Agriculture written by Dennis Wichelns (IWMI) and J. D. (Jim) Oster (U.C. Emeritus Specialist), will be the last chapter of a book to be published by the University of California. Because Scott Christiansen believes the topics covered in chapter are relevant to the objectives of WLI, the Editor of the book, Andrew Chang (Professor (retired), Univ. of Calif. Riverside), Wichelns and I have agreed to make it available to the WLI website. The book deals with the research findings generated by the Salinity and Drainage Taskforce of the University of California. The Taskforce was formed in about 1983 because of problems posed by disposal of drainage water generated by irrigated agriculture along the west side of the San Joaquin Valley. This book documents the results of this program in the context of similar work going on throughout the world. Water and subsurface drainage are both essential to sustainable irrigated agriculture. Failure of Irrigated agriculture has occurred for centuries, ever since mankind has irrigated lands to produce crop. Although the reasons why these failures occur are well known, failure continues to occur too often in too many countries around the world. We describe the critical issues involved in these failures; and the regional and international strategies related to water and drainage management needed to reduce, or perhaps even stop these failures from occurring in the future. “Water is the currency of sustainable agriculture (Brent Clothier, personal communication 2009)”: BOTH the irrigation and subsurface drainage water. If used as a reference, the citation details of the chapter would include the University of California as the publisher. Please understand that the attached document is a draft; that the text of the published chapter may be somewhat different because of minor additions, deletions, and changes in wording. . Chapter 15. Beyond California: An International Perspective on Sustainability of Irrigated Agriculture D. Wichelns J. D. Oster 06302009 Chapter 15: International Perspectives Page 1 The challenge of achieving sustainable irrigation by preventing salts from accumulating in irrigated soils is not unique to California. Salinity and drainage problems have required attention in irrigated areas throughout the world, and for thousands of years. In some areas, farmers, regional associations, or public agencies have addressed the problems with moderate success. In many others, secondary salinization and waterlogging continue to reduce crop yields and farm incomes, with consequent, negative impacts on livelihoods and food security, particularly in developing countries. The widespread and persistent occurrence of waterlogging and salinity suggest that the causes and complications associated with irrigation and drainage are fundamental and apply across a wide range of geographic and cultural conditions. The problems are similar, their spatial and temporal scales are similar, their causes are similar, and their solutions are constrained by similar physical, economic, and societal factors. Problems associated with toxic elements in irrigation and drainage water, including selenium, are also not unique to the San Joaquin Valley or to arid areas within the United States. Selenium and other elements, such as arsenic, are found in shallow groundwater and drainage water in India, Bangladesh, and elsewhere. The common theme in the occurrence of selenium and arsenic in these waters appears to be either: 1) the parent material of soils in the region are shales that were deposited under ocean conditions, or 2) the groundwater used for irrigation has been influenced by ocean sediments. Shales of ocean origin are the parent materials of soils on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley. As a result, we find high concentrations of selenium in soils and shallow groundwater in the San Joaquin Valley and in groundwater along the coastal range that defines the Valley’s western edge. In taking a broad look at drainage, salinity, and associated mobilization of toxic chemicals in water, we propose that salinity and drainage problems arise in arid regions due partly to technical relationships involving soils, water, crops, and irrigation. We suggest also that institutional issues including property rights, prices, market structure, and government intervention also contribute substantially to the genesis and persistence of salinity and drainage problems in many areas. These views are consistent with those of Hillel (1991), who suggests that salinity and drainage issues arise and persist over time due to a combination of technical, agronomic, and 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 2 management issues. To this we would add that environmental issues, such as the ecotoxicity of Se to a number of species that may co-occur with agricultural development. In this Chapter, following a brief discussion of institutional issues, we review three examples in which waterlogging and salinity are being addressed by national governments and regional irrigation and drainage organizations, with differing levels of success. Based on these case studies, which include the work on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley, we describe the role of various institutions in creating salinity and drainage problems and in crafting approaches that generate sustainable solutions. INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES: THE ABSENCE OF MARKETS AND THE FAILURE OF GOVERNMENT “If a market-guided system is to perform well over the long haul, it must be more than myopic. Someone – it could be the Department of the Interior, or the mining companies, or their major customers, or speculators – must always be taking the long view. They must somehow notice in advance that the resource economy is moving along a path that is bound to end in disequilibrium of some extreme kind. If they do notice it, and they take defensive actions, they will help steer the economy from the wrong path toward the right one.” – Robert M. Solow (Nobel Laureate in Economics), 1974. In making this comment at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in 1974, Solow was explicitly addressing the issue of rapidly rising oil prices in the United States, due largely to an unexpected reduction in supply, reflecting sharply lower exports from several oilrich nations. The price spike caused many observers to begin pondering for the first time when world oil supplies might fall short of demands, and whether or not the world would prepare for such a development in an optimal, or even organized manner. Professor Solow described the tendency of market participants to focus often on near-term costs and benefits, while giving too little attention to long-term implications of resource extraction and consumption. To ensure long-term optimality, “someone must always be taking the long view.” The same phenomenon and prescription apply quite well to the twin problems of waterlogging and salinity. 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 3 Most farmers in arid regions place great emphasis on the near-term costs and benefits of irrigation. Where successful crop production requires supplemental irrigation, farmers are eager to obtain irrigation service, from rivers, surface canals, or groundwater. Irrigation enables farmers to achieve crop yields that provide household food security directly or enable them to generate income and purchase food supplies in local markets. Most farmers, whether poor, rural residents of developing countries, or much wealthier large-scale farmers in industrialized countries, focus on the near-term costs and benefits of irrigation, while giving too little attention to the long-term problems of waterlogging and salinity. As a result, these problems have developed in many arid regions and have, in some cases, become very extensive and quite costly for farmers, their communities, and their countries. The San Joaquin Valley story is thus not atypical; the short-term initial focus of growers and government in the San Joaquin Valley reflects this initial short-term focus. INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES: SUSTAINABLE IRRIGATION REQUIRES EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF WATER AND SALTS “Waterlogging in irrigation projects is an age-old problem dating back to civilizations in the Euphrates and Tigris regions in Mesopotamia. These civilizations had serious waterlogging problems from which, even after centuries, mankind has learnt no major lessons.” – Bowonder, Ramana, Ravi, and Srinivas, 1987. Many reports describing the twin problems of waterlogging and salinity refer at some point to the epic and long-lasting salinity-induced decline of early settlements in Mesopotamia. The implication is generally that farmers around the world have been working for millennia to prevent or adapt to these problems, particularly in arid regions. Indeed, waterlogging and salinity have been widely documented, researched, and described throughout the world. Many of the finest scientists, technicians, and public officials have engaged in long-term efforts to understand waterlogging and salinity, and to devise new strategies to prevent or adapt to the problems in selected areas. Substantial financial commitments have been made for teaching, research, and outreach efforts to enhance understanding of measures that might prevent further 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 4 occurrences of waterlogging and salinity. Yet these problems still arise in areas large and small, even in regions with advanced technology and institutions. In the time that has elapsed since waterlogging and salinity were first linked to inappropriate irrigation and inadequate drainage, some of the world’s most challenging problems have been solved and many notable frontiers have been crossed. Smallpox has been eradicated, polio nearly so, and some forms of cancer can be treated with moderate success. Humans have visited the moon, robots have explored the surface of Mars, and anyone can explore the virtual universe with access to the internet. Yet waterlogging and salinity persist, reducing farm incomes and constraining rural livelihoods in many areas. Surely, technology cannot be the factor that limits our ability to eradicate waterlogging and salinity. INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES: THE FUNDAMENTAL CAUSES OF THE PROBLEM “For the farmers, irrigation is a need for today (“no water no crop”) and salinity is a problem of tomorrow.” – Ritzema, Satyanarayana, Raman, and Boonstra, 2007a. If technology is not the factor limiting a successful response to waterlogging and salinity in drainage, something more fundamental must be responsible for the persistence of these problems in both basic and advanced agricultural settings. We suggest three factors are pertinent: 1) a fundamental disconnect between individual gains and external impacts, 2) the short-term time perspectives of individuals, and 3) the unwillingness of public officials to implement polices and provide the funds required to offset the potentially negative implications of factors 1 and 2. It is reasonable to imagine that each of these factors has been evident in personal and political realms since water was first diverted to support crop production along the Nile River and between the rivers of Mesopotamia, from 4,000 to 8,000 years ago (van Schilfgaarde, 1994). Economists often describe the first factor within the context of externalities, market failure, or missing markets. When individuals lack property rights to key resources or do not face penalties for harm imposed on others, negative impacts often result (see also Chapter 13). The second 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 5 factor also is well known to economists and to anyone with credit card. Most people prefer to receive income today, while delaying expenses to the future. Market rates of interest reflect such an expression of time preference on the part of borrowers and lenders; individual borrowers are most concerned about making the incremental payment on goods they want now, while lenders are looking at the longer term and cumulative yield of their investment. The third factor might be described as government or political failure that arises most often because public officials also make decisions that involve individual gains and external impacts. And public officials also have non-trivial rates of personal (and political) time preference and spatial context; a short election cycle can drive officials to make short-term decisions and political decisions are often made with a local focus. Public officials must respond to current concerns voiced by residents who request near-term action regarding environmental and resource issues. For example, many residents of California living near the San Francisco Bay raised substantial issues regarding the potential impacts on water quality if a valley-wide drain were constructed, enabling the discharge of agricultural drainage water directly into the Bay. Their concerns weighed heavily in the state’s decision to withdraw support for the valley-wide drain (Robie, 1988). The fundamental disconnect and time preference phenomena explain rather well the harmful sequencing of investments in irrigation and drainage that is observed with notable frequency around the world. In many arid areas lacking irrigation, farmers often are eager to see the development of a regional irrigation project. Their incentive is clear: with irrigation they can increase production, obtain higher yields, plant a wider variety of crops, and enhance farm income. Their focus generally is on near-term returns, rather than long-term issues regarding salinity or the need for drainage that will arise inevitably at some time in the future. In one sense the farmers’ perspective is economically rational. Given a positive rate of time preference, most farmers prefer to receive the higher income made possible by developing irrigation, as soon as possible, while delaying the cost of drainage into the future. Clearly, drainage must be provided at some time, but the farmers’ initial inclination is to delay the investment, if possible. Farmers also might perceive that while they benefit directly from the use of irrigation water, the impacts of their activities on regional waterlogging and salinity problems are diffuse. Each farmer’s irrigation contributes to the volume of water percolating through the root zone or 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 6 flowing through surface drainage channels, eventually placing pressure on regional shallow aquifers and drainage collection basins. As noted in the model analyses in Chapter 13, it is difficult to quantify the precise impacts due to individual farmers and, hence, farmers often are not held responsible for the water or salt they discharge, particularly in the early years of an irrigation project. This disconnect between the farm-level benefits of irrigation and the off-farm costs is exacerbated by the typical time-lag between initiation of irrigation and drainage and the accumulation of salts to a level that may be considered a "problem" as noted in Chapter 13. The time delay can perpetuate until a regional waterlogging and salinity problem becomes severe. At that time, public agencies often are called upon to devise solutions. Public agencies likely should require that a viable plan for managing salts and preventing regional waterlogging be implemented at the same time that regional irrigation projects are constructed. But public budgets are limited, politicians and agency directors have positive rates of time preference, and waterlogging and salinity problems will not arise for some time. As a result, public investments in drainage systems are delayed, and policies that might encourage more efficient irrigation or require farmers to manage salts are not implemented within sufficient time to prevent regional problems from developing. When the problems eventually require action by the agencies responsible for managing land and water resources or maintaining environmental quality, the technical, financial, and political challenges of implementing regional solutions can be substantial. In summary, regional salinity and waterlogging problems arise because individuals and organizations lack sufficient incentives to “take the long view” described by Professor Solow. Farmers and public agency personnel tend to focus on near-term returns and rewards, and on inputs and outputs to which property rights are clearly defined. The difficulty of assigning rights to shallow aquifers and measuring salt discharges from irrigated fields discourages agency personnel from implementing policies that might require farmers to minimize the off-farm impacts of their irrigation decisions. Public officials might be aware of long-term implications, but near-term goals of stimulating economic development, minimizing public expenditures, or maintaining political support can prevent them from promoting sensible, long-term investments. One consequence of this short-term perspective is that essential research, such as the research 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 7 needed to understand Se in the drainage water in the western San Joaquin Valley, may not be adequately funded until the salinity issue becomes a recognized problem. Lacking data and tools to understand it, the response of institutions to a crisis is constrained and complicated, as it was at Kesterson Reservoir. INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLES “Much of the world’s irrigated land suffers from drainage problems, and an estimated 20 to 30 million hectares need improved drainage. The resulting waterlogging and salinity due to rise of water tables and accumulation of salts are reducing water productivity over wide areas and leading to significant social and economic losses for individuals, households, local communities, and countries.” – Ward, Darghouth, Minasyan, and Gambarelli, 2006, p. 166. There are numerous examples, worldwide, of regional waterlogging and salinity problems have arisen as a result of the three factors described above. Some involve small irrigation and drainage schemes while others involve very large schemes serving millions of small-scale farmers. We briefly describe three examples that illustrate the variety of ways in which waterlogging and salinity problems develop, and how farmers and public agencies respond in three distinct settings: 1) the Indus River Basin in Pakistan, 2) the Murray-Darling River Basin of Australia, and 3) the Southeast Anatolia Project in Turkey. Example 1: Seemingly Intractable Salinity and Waterlogging in Pakistan “These serious environmental problems have become a great challenge to ensure food security for the ever increasing population of Pakistan.” – Qureshi, McCornick, Qadir, and Aslam, 2008. Most of the cultivated land in Pakistan is irrigated, and much of the irrigated land is found in the Indus River Basin. The extensive canal irrigation system in the Basin was constructed by the British in the 19th century, largely to provide a partial supply of irrigation water to hundreds of 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 8 thousands of smallholder farmers. The primary goals at the time of development were to expand irrigated area, prevent crop failures, and guard against famine (Jurriens and Mollinga, 1996). The system operates largely by gravity, many of the canals are earthen, seepage rates are substantial, and farm-level irrigation deliveries are not matched closely with crop water requirements (Qureshi et al., 2008). Farmers divert an estimated 123,000 million m3 of water from the Indus River annually to irrigate 13.5 million ha of land, of which about 9 million ha can be irrigated year-round (Khan et al., 2006). Some observers consider the Indus River irrigation system to be the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world. Since 1960, many farmers in the Indus Basin have installed electric or diesel tubewells to extract groundwater from shallow aquifers to supplement their canal water supplies. Today, farmers using 700,000 private tubewells extract an estimated 24,500 million m3 per year, generating substantial economic benefits for tubewell owners and for farmers who purchase water from the owners (Shah et al., 2003; Khan et al., 2006; Bhutta and Smedema, 2007). The tubewells have enabled many farmers to increase productivity in the near term, by improving the reliability and timing of farm-level water deliveries (van Steenbergen and Oliemans, 2002; Shah et al., 2003). Over time, however, inefficient irrigation and the extensive use of saline groundwater have created large areas of saline, sodic, and waterlogged soils (van Steenbergen and Oliemans, 2002; Qureshi et al., 2008). Today, an estimated 4.5 million hectares (>20% of the 21.87 million hectares cultivated in Pakistan) are negatively impacted by salts (Table 15-3). The proportion of area impacted ranges from 5.2% in the Northwest Frontier Province to 53.8% in Sindh. Salinity and waterlogging are particularly damaging from a socioeconomic perspective in Pakistan, where 75% of the population earns a living through some connection with agriculture, which accounts for an estimated 50% of gross national product (Qureshi et al., 2008). In addition to reducing crop yields and constraining household incomes, salinity and waterlogging motivate many rural residents to migrate to urban areas. This implication of salinity and waterlogging greatly complicates efforts to promote economic development and enhance food security in rural areas, and discourage rural-to-urban migration. Ideally, increases in agricultural productivity would enable farmers to increase their incomes over time, invest in farm and nonfarm enterprises, and gradually create a thriving rural economy. 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 9 The Government of Pakistan, with the assistance of international agencies, has implemented programs to reduce the extent and severity of salinity and waterlogging, but a fully successful solution has not yet been developed. The Government constructed many deep tubewells in the 1960s and 1970s to enhance groundwater supplies for irrigation and reduce pressure from rising water tables. The program was successful, for a time, but the cost of operation and maintenance became burdensome and excessive pumping in some areas allowed saline water to intrude freshwater aquifers (Qureshi et al., 2008). The Government also installed many expensive horizontal drainage systems, with limited success in some areas. Important challenges preventing full success include the high costs of installation and maintenance, the inability of most farmers to share those costs, and lack of a safe, low-cost discharge site for the saline drainage water (Qureshi et al., 2008). A combination of technical and institutional approaches is needed to reduce the extent and severity of waterlogging and salinity in Pakistan. With assistance from international donors, the Left Bank Outfall Drain project was completed in 1995 at a cost of $636 million, or $1,230 per ha of land served (Qureshi et al., 2008). The project, which includes nearly 2,000 km of surface drains, 2,000 tubewells, 350 scavenger wells, many other structures, and improvements in irrigation water supplies, has notably reduced water tables and enabled farmers to increase cropping intensities and achieve higher yields (Ali et al., 2004; Qureshi et al., 2008. A similar project is planned for providing drainage service on the right side of the Indus River, but concerns regarding finance, administration, and environmental protection have delayed implementation (Qureshi et al., 2008). In this example, local growers' financial ability to solve the problem was supplemented by an outside source; this is similar to the State and Federal funding provided for a solution to the San Joaquin Drainage Program. It reflects a fundamental element of salinity drainage programs that the socioeconomic and environmental costs of a remediation or management program may be beyond the scope of the individual growers and much of the cost is borne by others. Given the impetus of the irrigation expansion, this is, essentially, an extension of the indirect government subsidy of food production to provide for food security. The economic analysis tools described in Chapter 13 are an essential element in 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 10 helping institutions respond to salinity/drainage problems in a manner that at least balances societal costs and societal benefits. Total returns to the initial investments and annual operating costs of the large-scale drainage service projects in Pakistan can be enhanced by improving the institutional framework in which irrigation and drainage are conducted, and motivating farmers to consider the impacts of their irrigation decisions on salinity and waterlogging. Water user associations and provincial irrigation and drainage authorities might be helpful in coordinating farm-level efforts to improve irrigation practices and maintain irrigation and drainage facilities (Qureshi et al., 2008). Farmers might be required to pay a portion of the operation and maintenance costs of regional drainage systems, perhaps according to a payment program that provides financial incentives for improving irrigation efficiency and minimizing surface runoff and deep percolation. Given the large size of the Indus River Basin and the small-scale nature of many rural households, implementing effective solutions to the persistent problems of waterlogging and salinity will be quite challenging; scaling up in an area of substantially heterogeneous farm practices and hydrogeological conditions will probably be an issue. Yet, given the steadily increasing population of Pakistan and the need to stimulate notable economic growth while ensuring food security, effective solutions must be designed and implemented in the very near future. Example 2: Salinity Targets and Tradable Credits in Australia “With the exception of global climate change, the sustainable management of the Murray-Darling Basin is the biggest single environmental and resource policy issue facing Australia at present.” – Adamson, Mallawaarachchi, and Quiggin, 2007. Agricultural activities in the Murray-Darling River Basin generate more than half the gross value of Australia’s crop production and one-third the gross value of its livestock production (Goesch et al., 2007). About three-fourths of Australia’s irrigated cotton area and all of its irrigated rice 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 11 are found in the Basin. Water volume and quality have been major policy issues in the Basin for many years. Surface water supplies are insufficient to meet all demands, much of the groundwater is saline, and the salt loads in irrigation return flows degrade water quality in lower reaches of the river system (Quiggin, 1988; Heaney and Beare, 2003). The historical development of salinity and waterlogging problems in the Murray-Darling River Basin is somewhat similar to that in other regions. Public officials observed the formation of saline high water tables, caused by excessive irrigation, as early as 1912 (Harris, 2007). Observations and reports regarding excessive irrigation, salinity, and waterlogging accumulated during the 1920s and 1930s, yet public agencies took little action to encourage efficient irrigation or provide effective drainage service (Harris, 2007). Construction of drainage diversion schemes that reduce in-stream salinity did not begin until the 1960s. By 2007, farmers had installed about 90,000 ha of subsurface drainage systems in the MurrayDarling River Basin, primarily serving irrigated perennial horticultural crops and pasture (Hornbuckle et al., 2007). Many of the systems discharge substantial salt loads in streams and rivers. In one irrigation district, subsurface drains serving only 7% of the area discharge 30% of the salt load leaving the area (Hornbuckle et al., 2007). In addition to removing salts from the crop root zone, many drainage systems collect and discharge salt that has been stored for millennia beneath the root zone (Christen et al., 2001). Discharging geologic salt increases the salinity of receiving waters without improving crop production. The Murray-Darling Basin Commission established a program of tradable salinity credits in 1989. The goal was to encourage the states of New South Wales and Victoria to implement drainage water diversion schemes that would help reduce in-stream salinity at the town of Morgan in South Australia by 10%, or by 80 electrical conductivity units (Blackmore, 1995; Sturgess, 1997). By 1994 the average electrical conductivity at Morgan had been reduced by 67 units, due partly to the states’ diversion efforts and partly to changes in river management. As in many arid areas, the increasing withdrawal of river water for agricultural and municipal uses placed upward pressure on in-stream salinity levels in the Murray-Darling River Basin 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 12 during the 1980s and 1990s. Diversions increased by 7.9% from 1988 to 1994, and an audit of the system projected a potential further increase of 14.5% in future, in the absence of any restrictions on new water withdrawals (MBDC, 2004). This outlook motivated the MurrayDarling Basin Ministerial Council to implement a permanent cap on diversions of water from the Basin, effective July 1, 1997 (MBDC, 2004). The cap is viewed by some as providing a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for achieving sustainable management of environmental amenities in the Basin. The cap on water diversions has generated increased interest in water trades, particularly those involving seasonal water deliveries within river valleys, as farmers and other water users wishing to expand their activities must obtain water supplies from willing sellers (Beare and Heaney, 2001). Permanent sales of water allocations across valleys are allowed in concept, but such trading is limited by public concerns regarding regional economic impacts and the possibility of leaving some irrigation districts with inadequate revenues to pay their fixed costs (Beare and Heaney, 2001). Inter-valley trades might also increase in-stream salinity levels, if irrigation water is moved from areas with moderately saline return flows to areas with highly saline return flows. Conversely, salinity levels might be reduced if irrigation water is moved from highly saline to moderately saline areas (Beare and Heaney, 2001). Perhaps the morals of the water trading story are that (a) a public agency response was necessary to provide a long-term perspective and (b) public agencies might need to monitor and manage water market transactions carefully to ensure that in-stream salinity is not degraded as a result of voluntary water trades within or across river basins. An updated Basin Salinity Management Strategy was adopted for the Murray-Darling River Basin in 2001. That plan combines engineering solutions, such as the drainage diversion schemes, with land and water management planning, and salt disposal within regional subareas, in an effort to further reduce and maintain lower salinity levels at Morgan (MBDC, 2006). The Strategy maintains the tradable salinity credits program, which prevents any construction or other activity that would generate a net increase in salinity. OSTER TO ADD SOME DETAIL HERE. 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 13 Example 3: Investing in Irrigation in Southeastern Turkey “The multi-sectoral Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) is the largest regional development plan for one of the less developed parts of Turkey, with a total area of 7.4 million ha and irrigated area of 1.7 million ha, embracing the sectors of agriculture, industry, energy, transportation, telecommunications, health care, and education.” – Aküzüm, Kodal, and Çakmak, 1997. Turkey is home to one of the newest regions to develop salinity and waterlogging problems as a result of irrigation development. The primary goals of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) in Turkey are typical of such projects worldwide --to enhance economic development and improve livelihoods in a region where 70% of the economically active population is engaged in agriculture (Ünver, 1997a, 1997b). The region includes nine provinces and accounts for about 10% of Turkey’s surface area and about the same portion of its population. In 1985, the region accounted for 4% of Turkey’s Gross National Product and per capita income in the region was just 47% of the national average (Ünver, 1997b). The 1990 census describes a population of 5.15 million, with an annual growth rate of 3.4% (Altinbilek, 1997). The high population growth rate, extensive poverty, and lack of employment opportunities have contributed to the net outmigration of residents in all nine provinces (Altinbilek, 1997). Economic conditions have been declining for many years in Southeastern Anatolia, while increasing in other regions of Turkey. One goal of the GAP project is to reverse the trend of increasing differences between income levels in Southeastern Anatolia and those in western portions of the country (Aksit and Akcay, 1997). The notion of boosting economic activity in Southeastern Anatolia through large-scale investments in irrigation was first considered in the 1930s (Ünver, 1997a). Since then, and prior to the onset of irrigation deliveries in 1995, the project has become a major economic development program involving complementary investments in several sectors (Ünver, 1997c). The soils in Southeastern Anatolia are fertile, but annual rainfall is limited, ranging from 1,200 mm in the north, to just 300 mm near the Syrian border in the south (Aküzüm et al., 1997). The 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 14 primary constraints to enhancing agricultural production are inadequate rainfall and the suboptimal geographic distribution of rainfall during the growing season (Altinbіlek, 1997). Given the large portion of the population engaged in agriculture and the potential improvements in productivity that often accompany investments in irrigation, many academics and public officials supported the GAP project concept (Saysel et al., 2002). The officially stated goals of the project were broad and comprehensive: 1. Increasing agricultural production, 2. Improving income levels and stimulating capital accumulation in agriculture, 3. Enhancing the ability of urban areas to accommodate the region’s increasing population, and 4. Promoting social stability and sustainable economic development. To achieve these goals, the GAP project includes major investments in irrigation, similar to those provided by the USBR and State of California for the San Joaquin Valley: hydropower, agriculture, urban infrastructure, forestry, health care, and education, has become the largest regional development project undertaken in Turkey (Kulga and Çakmak, 1997; Ünver, 1997c). In the beginning, the GAP project was viewed with notable enthusiasm and great potential. Writing shortly after irrigation deliveries began in 1995, Akuzum et al. (1997) suggest the “GAP will double Turkey’s hydroelectric production, increase irrigated areas by 50%, more than double per capita income in the region and create two million new jobs in the coming decade.” Ünver (1997c) predicts that cropping intensity will increase from 89% to 134%, cotton area will increase from 2.8% to 25%, and the area planted in wheat, barley, and pulses will decline from 72% to 45%. Potential salinity problems were not at the center of attention, perhaps because salinity and drainage had not been problems during centuries of rainfed production in the region. Quoting from Ünver (1997c), “Salinity and alkalinity problems are minimal, and most of the soil has good drainage conditions.” Enthusiasm and optimism are desirable characteristics pertaining to major investment projects. Yet the long historical record of salinity and drainage problems arising in arid regions after investments in large-scale irrigation schemes might have generated greater concern among officials designing and implementing the GAP project. 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 15 Within 12 years of the onset of irrigation deliveries, salinity and drainage problems have begun limiting agricultural productivity in Southeastern Anatolia. By 2004, an estimated 225,000 ha were being irrigated with GAP project water deliveries (Adaman and Özertan, 2007). The project is expected to provide irrigation for 1.7 million ha upon completion. To date, the GAP project has enhanced economic output from the region (Adaman and Özertan, 2007), generated new employment opportunities for residents (Kendirli et al., 2005), and attracted migrant workers from other regions during harvest seasons (Kudat, 1999). Much of the increase in economic activity pertains to cotton production. While the original plan for the GAP project suggested that cotton eventually would be planted on 25% of the irrigated area, farmers already have expanded cotton production to cover 90% of the irrigated area (Adaman and Özertan, 2007). The climate, infrastructure, and market conditions favor cotton production from the farmlevel perspective (Adaman and Özertan, 2007). Many farmers began growing cotton for the first time when irrigation water became available via the GAP project. Lacking adequate knowledge of cotton production and water management, many farmers over-irrigated their cotton fields, causing excessive deep percolation, rising water tables, and soil salinization (Adaman and Özertan, 2007). In some years, farmers applied more than five times the water required for successful crop production (Table 15-1). By the end of 2004, salinity problems were observed on about 15,000 ha in Harran, and an estimated 40,000 ha to 50,000 ha were threatened by rising water tables (Adaman and Özertan, 2007). In addition to increasing soil salinity, the potential harm from rising water tables in the region includes damage to fruit trees, roads, buildings, and the drinking water system (Adaman and Özertan, 2007). In a survey of 619 farm households on the Harran Plain in 2005, Adaman and Özertan (2007) observed that 75% of the farmers knew of the relationship between irrigation and salinity, and 91% of farmers were aware of salinity problems on their own fields (Table 15-2). Yet about one-half the farmers interviewed were not aware of the full extent of salinity problems on their fields, and only 12% had received any training with respect to salt management within the previous two years. Almost three-fourths of the farmers were willing to engage in collective 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 16 action to remedy the salinity situation in the region, but it was not clear how such action might be organized. Adaman and Özertan (2007) conclude that the following factors have contributed to the salinity and drainage problems on the Harran Plain: 1. Irrigation deliveries were started without first building a proper drainage system, 2. Farmers have irrigated primarily using furrows, a rather inefficient method, 3. They have used excessive amounts of irrigation water, due partly to the very low incremental cost of water and the lack of training with respect to efficient irrigation methods, 4. They have expended cotton cultivation, at the expense of other crops, and 5. Farmers have planted too few halophytes that might be helpful in preventing saline water from accumulating near the ground surface. These causes closely correlate to the causes of the salinity drainage problem in the San Joaquin Valley, where irrigation was not well controlled and drainage was not adequately considered until a substantial problem had already developed, leaving little time to address this problem (and the Kesterson crisis) in an orderly manner. The experience described here did not, however, involve an ecotoxicity problem, and thus search for solutions does not have this additional factor affecting the temporal scale of the solution. Adaman and Özertan (2007) find the inadequate training to be unfortunate, given that farmers can avoid excessive deep percolation by using efficient irrigation methods. Farmers on the Harran Plain who received extensive training regarding salinity reduced the frequency of irrigation events from 10 to 15 times per season to 6 to 7 times (Kün et al., 2005, cited in Adaman and Özertan, 2007). While the estimated cost of infrastructure required to irrigate farmland in the region is $4,600 per ha, less than 1% of that amount is invested in educating and training farmers (Yildrum, 2004; cited in Adaman and Özertan, 2007). 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 17 The current situation regarding irrigation, drainage, and salinity on the Harran Plain is very similar to the situation that has prevailed in many other arid regions throughout history. The Government of Turkey is eager to promote economic development, provide jobs, and enhance food security in the Southeastern Anatolia region. Irrigation can stimulate economic development by enabling farmers to produce a larger assortment of crops, while obtaining higher yields than are possible without irrigation. Given positive rates of time preference on the part of farmers, irrigation planners, and public officials, the irrigation components of the GAP move forward on an aggressive schedule, while installation of the drainage components are delayed. Eventually, investments and policies that encourage wiser irrigation and drainage management will be needed to sustain the benefits provided by irrigation on the Harran Plain. Lessons Learned: Investments and Institutional Reforms are Needed “Drainage development deserves a more prominent place on the political agenda than it presently enjoys.” – Datta and de Jong, 2002. Substantial investments are needed to improve irrigation and drainage management on existing agricultural lands, to provide the food and fiber needed to support a world population that likely will increase by 50% by 2050 (Schultz et al., 2005; Molden, 2007). National governments and international donors must ensure that sufficient funds are available for conducting research, designing new interventions, and implementing innovative irrigation and drainage programs around the world. Existing drainage systems need replacement on an estimated 30 million ha, while new systems are required on another 30 million ha (Ritzema et al., 2007b). About onethird of these 60 million ha are in Egypt, India, and Pakistan; countries in which most residents are poor, and most earn their living through some connection with agriculture (Table 15-4). The estimated costs of new drainage systems are quite high, ranging from € 400 to € 1,200 per hectare ($550 to $1700; Ritzema et al., 2006). Most small-scale farmers will be unable to afford such investment costs. Agricultural incomes are limited in many of the areas requiring drainage investments, due partly to the current, degraded state of agricultural lands, and partly to farmers’ limited access to affordable, complementary inputs, such as high-quality seeds, fertilizer, and 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 18 farm chemicals. The optimal approach to improving drainage conditions will include comprehensive financial analysis of near-term investments and expenditures in drainage systems, near-term investments in other forms of infrastructure, expenditures for complementary variable inputs, and the long-term returns to enhanced agricultural production. Over time, public support should be reduced as farm-level incomes increase with improvements in crop yields, cropping patterns, and market opportunities. Many researchers are developing new technological approaches to reducing the areal extent and severity of waterlogging and salinity in arid areas. Many others are investigating institutional innovations that might provide the correct incentives for managing irrigation water with greater care at the farm level and for minimizing surface runoff and deep percolation throughout irrigated areas. Combinations of technological and institutional advances likely will be most helpful in restoring agricultural productivity in degraded areas and preventing new areas from becoming waterlogged and saline. Many rural households in developing countries might benefit from the installation of small-scale drainage systems that provide relief from saline, high water tables at moderate cost. Kahlown et al. (2007) examined the performance of three small-scale drainage systems during a 10-year, farm-level study in the Indus Basin of Pakistan. The systems reduced soil salinity, improved land productivity, and enabled farmers to begin producing high-valued crops, such as rice, cotton, and sugarcane. Farmers were required to provide a portion of the capital cost of installing the systems. They were happy to pay that portion, given the higher incomes they earned as a result of obtaining drainage service. Khan et al. (2008) present a method for determining the optimal pattern of net recharge to shallow groundwater at the farm level, in areas with regional salinity and waterlogging problems. Public agencies might use this approach to assign responsibility to farmers for improving irrigation management and reducing net recharge. Farmers can use the model to determine optimal irrigation strategies, subject to net recharge constraints. 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 19 Further research is needed also regarding the disposal of saline drainage water in ways that are consistent with maintaining environmental quality. Just as the lack of a suitable outlet for drainage water has prevented farmers on the west side of California’s San Joaquin Valley from achieving long-term sustainable irrigation, issues regarding the transport and discharge of saline drainage water are notable in many arid areas. Terminal drainage water disposal constraints, similar to the constraint in California, limit irrigation and drainage development in Armenia, Egypt, and Turkey (Smedema and Shiati, 2002). In Pakistan, farmers in Sindh Province prefer that drainage water collected in the Punjab is not discharged into the Indus River, which flows from the Punjab through Sindh on its path toward the Arabian Sea (Bhutta and Smedema, 2007; Qureshi et al, 2008). Plans for salt disposal within irrigated regions need to be considered carefully, to ensure that projects reduce impacts downstream, provide incentives to use irrigation water sparingly, and foster development of community efforts that fully acknowledge hydrologic linkages. Public agencies must consider interactions involving surface and subsurface sources of irrigation water, while developing groundwater management plans that optimize the longevity of water quality by localizing the impacts of in-region salt disposal. Evaporation ponds are not a perfect solution, as leaks will occur over time (Australian citation). In addition, drainage systems cannot capture all drainage water when regional water tables are impacted by groundwater pumping (Chang citation). Sustainable solutions to waterlogging and salinity problems will include farm-level and regional efforts to minimize drainage water volume and inter-state or inter-provincial agreements regarding the suitable transport and disposal of drainage water, or the salt it contains. In short, there are both fundamental causes of salinity and drainage problems and some relatively universal approaches to their solution. The experience of the San Joaquin Valley Drainage Program is remarkably similar to that in other drainage impaired regions. Government, industry, and individuals initially cooperated to exploit land and water resources, often with subsidized infrastructure. The temporal lag between initiation of irrigated agriculture and the first signs of potential salinity and drainage problems created an initial "free-lunch" of agricultural benefits without initial costs, followed by the discovery of a problem, the initiation of research, and then a search for some mix of management and technologic manipulations of irrigation and drainage 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 20 to solve it. The driver in the "fix" is generally a regional or national government, because such entities may have a longer-term perspective on costs and benefits, and can address the problem of variable "blame" for the problem among the growers, and have the financing and jurisdictional reach to provide for solutions at the appropriate spatial scale. The solutions are, ultimately, site specific, but they require substantial scientific support and a long-term perspective. In this sequence of events, research and development play a critical role; they are the bridge between problem and solution. Recognizing this, the initial development program to expand agricultural production needs to include some provision for early monitoring of irrigation and drainage and research to address potential problems. References Adaman, F., Ozertan, G., 2007. Perceptions and practices of farmers towards the salinity problem: the case of the Harran Plain, Turkey. International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology 6(4/5): 533-551. Adamson, D., Mallawaarachchi, T., Quiggin, J., 2007. Water use and salinity in the MurrayDarling Basin: A state-contingent model. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 51: 263-281. Aksit, B., Akcay, A.A., 1997. Sociocultural aspects of irrigation practices in southeastern Turkey. International Journal of Water Resources Development 13(4): 523-540. Ali, G., Asghar, M.N., Latif, M., Hussain, Z., 2004. Optimizing operational strategies of scavenger wells in lower Indus Basin of Pakistan. Agricultural Water Management 66(3): 239-249. Altinbіlek, H.D., 1997. Water and land resources development in Southeastern Turkey. International Journal of Water Resources Development 13(3): 311-332. Aküzüm.T., Kodal, S., Çakmak, B., 1997. Irrigation management in GAP. International Journal of Water Resources Development 13(4): 547-560. Beare, S., Heaney, A., 2001. Irrigation, water quality and water rights in the Murray Darling Basin, Australia. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Conference Paper 2001.15, Canberra. 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 21 Bhutta, M.N., Smedema, L.K., 2007. One hundred years of waterlogging and salinity control in the Indus Valley, Pakistan: A historical review. Irrigation and Drainage 56 (s1): s81-s90. Blackmore, D.J., 1995. Murray-Darling Basin Commission: A case study in integrated catchment management. Water Science & Technology 32(5-6): 15-25. Bowonder, B., Ramana, K.V., Ravi, C., Srinivas, C., 1987. Land use, waterlogging and irrigation management. Land Use Policy 4(3): 331-341. Christen, E.W., Ayars, J.E., Hornbuckle, J.W., 2001. Subsurface drainage design and management in irrigated areas of Australia. Irrigation Science 21(1): 35-43. Datta, K.K., de Jong, C., 2002. Adverse effect of waterlogging and soil salinity on crop and land productivity in northwest region of Haryana, India. Agricultural Water Management 57(3): 223-238. Goesch, T., Hafi, A., Oliver, M., Page, S., Ashton, D., Hone, S., Dyack, B., 2007. Drought and irrigation in Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin. Australian Commodities 14(2): 342-352. Harris, E., 2007. Historical regulation of Victoria’s water sector: A case of government failure? The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 51: 343-352. Heaney, A., Beare, S., 2003. Improving water use efficiency: competitive tendering for public investment. Australian Commodities 10(2): 266-277. Hillel, D., 1991. Out of the Earth. Free Press, New York. Hornbuckle, J.W., Christen, E.W., Faulkner, R.D., 2007. Evaluating a multi-level subsurface drainage system for improved drainage water quality. Agricultural Water Management 89(3): 208-216. Jurriens, R., Mollinga, P.P., 1996. Scarcity by design: protective irrigation in India and Pakistan. Irrigation and Drainage 45(2): 31-53. Kahlown, M.A., Marri, M.K., Azam, M., 2007. Design, construction and performance evaluation of small tile drainage systems in the Indus Basin. Irrigation and Drainage 56 (s1): s217s225. Kendirli, K., Çakmak, B., Ucar, Y., 2005. Salinity in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), Turkey: issues and options. Irrigation and Drainage 54: 115-122. Khan, S., Tariq, R., Hanjra, M.A., 2008. A cross disciplinary framework for linking farms with regional groundwater and salinity management targets. Agricultural Water Management 95(1): 35-47. 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 22 Khan, S., Tariq, R., Yuanlai, C., Blackwell, J., 2006. Can irrigation be sustainable? Agricultural Water Management 80: 87-99. Kudat, A., 1999. Sanliurfa and Harran Plains on-farm and village development project. Social Development Notes. Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Network. Note Number 46. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Kulga, D., Çakmak, C., 1997. Toward sustainable water management in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP). International Journal of Water Resources Development 13(4): 541-546. Molden, D. (Ed.), 2007. Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. Earthscan, London, and the International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Murray-Darling Basin Commission (MBDC), 2004. The Cap. MBDC Brochure. Available at www.mbdc.gov.au, 6 pp. Murray-Darling Basin Commission (MBDC), 2006. Interstate water trade and salinity. MBDC Fact Sheet 6, May, 2 pp. Nijland, H.J. (Ed.), 2000. Drainage along the River Nile. RIZA Nota Lelystad, The Netherlands, Number 2000.052, 323 pp. Nijland, H.J., Croon, F.W., Ritzema, H.P., 2005. Subsurface drainage practices: Guidelines for the implementation, preparation and maintenance of subsurface pipe drainage systems. ILRI Publication 60, Wageningen, 607 pp. Qureshi, A.S., McCornick. P.G., Qadir, M., Aslan, Z., 2008. Managing salinity and waterlogging in the Indus Basin of Pakistan. Agricultural Water Management 95(1): 1-10. Quiggin, J., 1988. Murray River salinity – an illustrative model. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 70(3): 635-645. Ritzema, H.P., Nijland, H.J., Croon, F.W., 2006. Subsurface drainage practices: From manual installation to large-scale implementation. Agricultural Water Management 86(1-2): 60-71. Ritzema, H.P., Satyanarayana, T.V., Raman, S., Boonstra, J., 2007a. Subsurface drainage to combat waterlogging and salinity in irrigated lands in India: Lessons learned in farmers’ fields. Agricultural Water Management, in press. 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 23 Ritzema, H.P., Wolters, W., Bhutta, M.N., Gupta, S.K., Abdel-Dayem, S., 2007. The added value of research on drainage in irrigated agriculture. Irrigation and Drainage 56(s1): s205-s215. Robie, R., 1988. California Oral History Interview by M. Chall. Page 54. Available at www.lib.berkley.edu/WRCA/oralhist.html Saysel, K., Barlas, Y., Yenigün, O., 2002. Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach. Journal of Environmental Management 64(3): 247-260. Schultz, B., Thatte, C.C., Labhsetwar, V.K., 2005. Irrigation and drainage – main contributors to global food production. Irrigation and Drainage 54: 263-278. Shah, T., Roy, A.D., Qureshi, A.S., Wang, J., 2003. Sustaining Asia’s groundwater boom: An overview of issues and evidence. Natural Resources Forum 27(2): 130-141. Smedema, L.K., Shiati, K., 2002. Irrigation and salinity: a perspective review of the salinity hazards of irrigation development in the arid zone. Irrigation and Drainage Systems 16(2): 161-174. Solow, R.M., 1974. The economics of resources or the resources of economics. The American Economic Review 64(2): 1-14. Sturgess, G.L., 1997. Transborder water trading among the Australian states. In: Anderson, T.L., Hill, P.J. (Eds.) Water Marketing – The Next Generation. Rowman & Little Publishers, Inc., London. Tekinel, O., Ünlü, M., Topaloğlu, F., Kanber, R., 2002. TAP yöresinde su kullanimi ve tuzluluk (Use of irrigation water and salinity problems in the Southeastern Anatolia Project Area) KSE Journal of Science and Engineering 5(1): 19-33. Ünver, I.H.O., 1997a. Southeastern Anatolia Integrated Development Project (GAP): An overview of issues of Sustainability. International Journal of Water Resources Development 13(2): 187-207. Ünver, I.H.O., 1997b. Editorial. International Journal of Water Resources Development 13(4): 439-441. Ünver, I.H.O., 1997c. Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP). International Journal of Water Resources Development 13(4): 453-483. 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 24 van Schilfgaarde, J., Irrigation – a blessing or a curse. Agricultural Water Management 25(3): 203-219. van Steenbergen, F., Oliemans, W., 2002. A review of policies in groundwater management in Pakistan 1950-2000. Water Policy 4(4): 323-344. Ward, C., Darghouth, S., Minasyan, G., Gambarelli, G., 2006. Reengaging in Agricultural Water Management: Challenges and Options. The World Bank, Washington, D.C. Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), 2003. Salinity and Reclamation Department. SCARP Monitoring Organization, Lahore, Pakistan. 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 25 Table 15-1. Timeline of interesting observations on the Harran Plain, within the Southeastern Anatolia Project, in Turkey 1978 Salinity problems are first observed, while using groundwater for irrigation, 1995 Irrigation deliveries from the Atatürk Dam Reservoir begin, via Sanliurfa irrigation tunnels. 1998 Estimated average irrigation requirement: Estimated average irrigation delivery: 611 mm 4,242 mm 1999 Estimated average irrigation requirement: Estimated average irrigation delivery: 592 mm 3,241 mm 2005 Most irrigation (80%) is by furrow methods. 2005 About 5% of the irrigated area has a proper drainage system. 2005 About 15,000 ha are affected by salinity problems. About 40,000 ha to 50,000 ha are threatened by rising water tables. Sources: Tekinel et al. (2002) and Adaman and Özertan (2007). 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 26 Table 15-2. Summary statistics from a survey of 619 farm households in 2005 on the Harran Plain, within the Southeastern Anatolia Project, in Turkey Age, Experience, Education, and Irrigation Mean Age of the farmer (years) 39 13 15 80 Farming Experience (years) 16 10 1 60 Schooling (years) 5 2 0 13 Irrigations per season (number) 7 2 2 24 Awareness and Extent of Salinity Problems Yes Summary Statistic SD Minimum Maximum No Awareness of Relationship Between Irrigation and Salinity (%) 75 25 Awareness of Salinity Level On One’s own Fields (%) 91 9 Awareness of the Extent of Salinity Problems on One’s Own Fields (%) 49 51 Salinity Training Received During Previous Two Years (%) 12 88 Willing to Engage in Collective Action to Remedy Salinity (%) 71 29 Source: Adaman and Özertan (2007). 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 27 Table 15-3. Cultivated and salt-affected areas in the provinces of Pakistan, 2003 Province Cultivated Area (m ha) Salt-Affected Area (m ha) Proportion Salt-Affected (percent) Punjab 12.27 1.23 10.0 Sindh 5.65 3.04 53.8 Northwest Frontier 2.11 0.11 5.2 Balochistan 1.84 0.12 6.5 21.87 4.50 20.6 Sums for Pakistan Source: This table appears in Qureshi et al., 2008. Those authors obtained the data from WAPDA, 2003. 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 28 Table 15-4. Descriptive statistics pertaining to agriculture, irrigation, and drainage in Egypt, India, and Pakistan, 2003 Indicator Units Egypt India Pakistan Total area Cropped area Irrigated area Irrigated area million ha million ha million ha (% of cropped) 100 3.4 3.4 100.0 329 170.1 57.2 33.6 80 22.1 17.8 80.5 Drained area Drained area million ha (% of cropped) 3.0 88.2 2.5 1.5 6.0 27.1 Area needing drainage million ha 3.4 8.4 8.0 Population Population in agriculture Population in agriculture millions millions percent Cereals production Productivity of cereals Gross national income 71 40 57 1,050 755 72 150 99 66 million tonnes kg ha-1 19 7,249 232 2,356 28 2,302 ($ per person) 19 232 28 Source: This table appears in Ritzema et al. (2007b). Those authors obtained the data from ICID (2003), Nijland (2000), and Nijland et al. (2005). 06302009 Chapter 15. International Perspectives Page 29