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STAT/02/20 7 February 2002 Third release for the third quarter of 2001 Euro-zone GDP up by 0.1%, EU15 GDP up by 0.2% +1.4% compared to the third quarter of 2000 for both zones Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in the euro-zone1 and by 0.2% in the EU15 during the third quarter of 2001, according to revised estimates2 out today from Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities in Luxembourg. Economic growth had reached 0.1% for both zones during the second quarter. In comparison with the third quarter of 2000, the euro-zone and the EU15 GDP grew both by 1.4%, after an increase of 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively, in the previous quarter. The US economy recorded a drop in GDP (-0.3%) during the third quarter of 2001, after an increase of 0.1% in the second quarter. In Japan, the economy recorded another drop in GDP in the third quarter of 2001 (-0.5% during the third quarter after -1.2% in the previous quarter). Compared to the third quarter of 2000, the GDP in the United States rose by 0.5% and dropped by 0.5% in Japan. The figures for the euro-zone and the EU15 come from Eurostat's third quarterly estimation of National Accounts aggregates. Up to now, this third release was only published on Eurostat's web site.3 From now on, there will also be a regular news release on this occasion. In addition, Eurostat will publish in this news release the quarterly data derived from the income approach4. These new figures show, on a quarterly level, how the results from economic activity are distributed and they add Gross National Income (equivalent to the formerly widely used Gross National Product GNP) and Gross National Disposable Income to the list of main aggregates supplied, thus enhancing further the possibilities for economic analysis for the euro-zone and the EU15. With this extension of National Accounts coverage, Eurostat covers all three approaches to Gross Domestic Product (expenditure, output, income). Slowdown of household consumption, drop in foreign trade In the third quarter of 2001, household final consumption expenditure, even if slowing down, sustained GDP growth. Private consumption expenditure grew by 0.1% in the euro-zone and by 0.3% in the EU15, after an increase of 0.6% in both zones in the previous quarter. Investments stagnated in the euro-zone (0.0%) and dropped by 0.3% in the EU15 during the third quarter of 2001, following a fall of 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively, during the second quarter. Exports continued to drop: -0.6% in the euro-zone and -1.0% in the EU15 (following -0.6% and -0.9% during the second quarter). Imports recorded a strong decrease both in the euro-zone (-1.4% compared to -0.3% in the previous quarter) and in the EU15 (-1.7% compared to -0.6%). Compensation of employees growing steadily, Operating surplus down Regarding the breakdown of GDP at current prices into income aggregates, Compensation of employees increased by 0.8% during the third quarter of 2001 in the euro-zone and by 0.7% in the EU15, after +1.1% and +1.8% in the second quarter. Gross operating surplus and mixed income was actually down by 0.6% in the eurozone and by 0.4% in the EU15, after -0.5% and +0.5%, in the previous quarter. During the third quarter 2001, Compensation of employees was growing fastest in Spain (+1.5%), in Belgium and in the Netherlands (+1.2% for both), while the lowest increases were recorded in Germany and the United Kingdom (+0.2% for both). Gross operating surplus and mixed income saw the steepest rise in Denmark (+3.0%), while the lowest fall was observed in Finland (-10.1%). Tables only available in PDF and Word format 1. Euro-zone: Belgium, Germany, Greece (from the first quarter 2001 onwards), Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. 2. The euro-zone and EU15 growth rates published today have been revised compared to the news release No. 6/2002 issued on January 10, 2002. The previous publication was based on a more limited data set than the one used for the present news release and, additionally, on first estimates for some Member States, which have now been revised. The extent of these revisions is, nevertheless, quite small e.g.: GDP growth rates compared to the previous quarter for the euro-zone and the EU15 recorded a revision of +0.02 percentage points for the euro-zone and +0.03 for the EU15. Due to rounding, the published growth rates remained unchanged, though. Estimates for the Euro-zone and EU15 are calculated in a coherent statistical framework, using annual data of all Member States and as indicators the available data of those Member States compiling quarterly accounts. Estimates for the euro-zone and EU15 are obtained by using data from Member States. These data are seasonally adjusted according to national adjustment procedures. They are also corrected for working days for Belgium, Germany (not for the income side), Spain, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. 3. Eurostat publishes a first estimate of EU15 and euro-zone quarterly figures (GDP, expenditure components, output breakdown) in a press release 70 days after the end of the quarter. The second estimate (at 100 days) is also published in a press release and includes the details for Member States. The third estimate (at 120 days) was only published on Eurostat's web site so far. 4. A methodological description of the income approach and of the new variables is presented in the annex. A Statistics in focus on "Quarterly Accounts - Income Side - Third Quarter 2001" will be published soon. Issued by: Eurostat Press Office Philippe BAUTIER, Louise CORSELLI-NORDBLAD Joseph Bech Building L-2920 LUXEMBOURG Tel: Fax: +352-4301 33 444 +352 4301 34 216 +352-4301 35349 [email protected] For further information on data: Roberto BARCELLAN Ingo KUHNERT Tel.: Fax: +352-4301-35 802 +352-4301-35 234 +352-4301-33 879 [email protected] [email protected] Eurostat news releases on the Internet: www.europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat Tables available only in PDF and Word format Annex Extension of Euro-indicators: Eurostat will regularly issue quarterly income data from National Accounts Eurostat will from now on supplement its quarterly National Accounts data by figures derived from the income approach. These data will regularly complement the figures from the expenditure and output sides that have been published so far.1 With this extension of National Accounts coverage, Eurostat covers all three approaches to Gross Domestic Product (expenditure, output, income), and adds Gross National Income and Gross National Disposable Income to the list of main aggregates supplied, thus enhancing further the possibilities for economic analysis for both the euro-zone and the EU15. Definition of income side representation of GDP The income side approach shows Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as it is distributed among different participants in the production process. For the time being, GDP will be broken down according to: Gross domestic product = compensation of employees + gross operating surplus and mixed income + taxes less subsidies on production and imports Compensation of employees is defined as the total remuneration, in cash or in kind, payable by an employer to an employee in return for work done. This includes social contributions. Operating surplus is the surplus (or deficit) on production activities before account has been taken of the interest, rents or charges paid or received for the use of assets. Mixed income is the remuneration for the work carried out by the owner or members of his family of an unincorporated enterprise. This is referred to as 'mixed income' since it cannot be distinguished from the entrepreneurial profit of the owner. Taxes less subsidies on production and imports consist of compulsory unrequited payments, to or by general government or institutions of the European Union, in respect of the production or importation of goods and services, the employment of labour, the ownership or use of land, buildings or other assets used in production. To account for income flows that connect the European economies with the rest of the world, figures for the following two equations will be supplied: Gross national income (GNI) = GDP + (primary incomes receivable from the rest of the world – primary incomes payable to the rest of the world) Gross national disposable income (GNDI) = gross national income + (current transfers receivable from the rest of the world – current transfers payable to the rest of the world) Gross national income represents total primary income receivable by resident institutional units, no matter where it is earned. It is conceptually identical with Gross national product (GNP), which was formerly widely used for assessing the economy. Primary income is income received by virtue of a direct participation in the production process, and income receivable by the owner of an asset in return for putting the asset at the disposal of another institutional unit. If a foreign residential unit generates a primary income in the national economy's production process, from that economy's viewpoint this income will be payable to the rest of the world. If, on the other hand, a national residential unit engages in another national economy, it will generate primary income receivable from the rest of the world. Current transfers contain current taxes on income, wealth, etc., social contributions and benefits and other current transfers (e.g. non-life insurance premiums and claims, international co-operation transfers, transfers between households, fines and penalties, lotteries and gambling etc.) between residential and non-residential units. They are distinguished from primary incomes in that they don't relate directly to production processes, but rather are of re-distributive nature. The two types of flows with the rest of the world will be given net only. This is due to the fact that Member State source data do not necessarily distinguish whether a transaction is with another European Union Member State or with third countries. Additional information will therefore be required to do the consolidation needed to calculate the absolute figure of, say, primary incomes received by the euro-zone. The balances on the other hand need no consolidation since a net flow to another Member State will automatically be countered by the net flow of the recipient, which will not be the case for flows to the rest of the world. To allow the calculation of Net instead of Gross aggregates, figures will also be provided for overall Consumption of fixed capital. This represents the amount of fixed assets used up as a result of normal wear and tear and foreseeable obsolescence, including a provision for losses as a result of accidental damage. Exceptional catastrophic losses are not included in this figure. Total final consumption expenditure will be carried over from the expenditure side representation of GDP. This is the sum of household final consumption expenditure (including that of non-profit organisations serving households) and government final consumption expenditure. Subtracting this from Net national disposable income will result in Net saving. Net saving measures the portion of national disposable income that is not used on consumption and may therefore be used for capital transfers or investment. It should be noted that the income aggregates are, in general, available in current prices only, while expenditure and output data are often given in constant prices, too. In fact, the income aggregates are hardly ever expressed in constant prices since it is difficult to define a volume component of income. To give an indication of the relative importance of the income and transfer types, table 1 below shows the annual values of the income side aggregates with respect to GDP for the Euro-zone and the EU15 for 2000. Estimation and balancing This representation of GDP is a supplement to the expenditure and output approaches. The results of the three approaches are coherent (balanced), so a single value for GDP is obtained. Annual figures for the euro-zone and the EU15 are, in general, derived from adding up the respective Member States data, but where not all of these are available, some additional estimations are required for the presentation of annual data. Quarterly income data for the euro-zone and the EU15 are derived from all countries for which these data are available quarterly. Since not all Member States collect quarterly income data, the following procedure is used to produce quarterly estimates for the euro-zone and the EU15: In a first step, all the available quarterly data from Member States are summed up in order to calculate indicators to be used for the estimation of the values of the euro-zone and the EU15. Some data at least for the large Member States (Germany, France and Italy, and in addition the United Kingdom for the EU15) are necessary in order to give a reliable indicator. These indicators are then used to produce a preliminary estimate in a statistical framework that links available quarterly and annual information to derive quarterly values for the target euro-zone and EU15 aggregates. According to this procedure the quarterly movement of the estimated aggregates is led by the quarterly indicators and reflects the movement and weights of the available Member States. Since income data often take longer to compile, enough data for a reliable estimate are, for the time being, available only at the time of the third Eurostat estimation of GDP. At that point, data for Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland and the United Kingdom are usually available. Table 2 indicates the relative weights of the Member States contribution to the euro-zone and the EU15 GNI and GNDI for 2000. In a second step, the preliminary estimates are balanced to ensure that the accounting constraints are obeyed. Table 1: Relative value of income aggregates, GDP = 100, 2000, in current prices EU15 Euro-zone Compensation of employees 49.5 50.9 Gross operating surplus and mixed income 38.2 36.5 Taxes less subsidies on production and imports 12.3 12.6 100.0 100.0 Net primary income flow with the rest of the world -0.4 -0.6 Gross national income 99.6 99.4 Consumption of fixed capital 14.2 13.6 Net national income 85.4 85.8 Net current transfer flow with the rest of the world -0.5 -0.6 National disposable income 84.9 85.2 7.9 7.2 Gross domestic product Net saving Table 2: Countries' weights in Gross national Income (GNI) and Net National Disposable Income (Net NDI), 2000, in current prices Share of eurozone GNI Belgium 3.9% Denmark Germany 3.0% Share of eurozone Net NDI 3.8% 2.0% Share of EU15 Net NDI 2.9% 1.9% 30.9% 23.7% 30.5% 23.3% Greece 1.9% 1.5% 2.1% 1.6% Spain 9.2% 7.1% 9.3% 7.1% France 21.7% 16.7% 21.7% 16.6% Ireland 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 1.1% Italy 17.7% 13.6% 18.0% 13.8% Luxembourg 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Netherlands 6.2% 4.8% 6.1% 4.7% Austria 3.1% 2.4% 3.1% 2.4% Portugal 1.7% 1.3% 1.8% 1.4% Finland 2.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.5% Sweden United Kingdom 1. Share of EU15 GNI 2.9% 2.8% 18.3% 18.9% At the moment, only the third release of National Accounts data each quarter which is scheduled 120 days after the end of the quarter will contain Income data. A 'Statistics in Focus' is to be published on each of the three approaches on this occasion. For the two first estimates (at 70 and 100 days, respectively) the data available is considered to be still too limited to allow the inclusion of income aggregates. Providing income aggregates on the occasion of the second estimate (at 100 days) is aimed at for the near future.