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ECONOMIC RESEARCH & CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT The NewsLine November 13, 2009 MACROECONOMICS FINANCIAL MARKETS ECONOMIC POLICY SECTORS GERMANY Economy gathering pace consumption disappointing Thanks to the pickup in world trade and the government stimulus package, Q3 2009 saw the expected rebound in the economy. Economic momentum looks set to remain brisk into the first half of 2010. As the Federal Statistical Office announced today, the German economy grew by a seasonally-adjusted 0.7% q-o-q in the third quarter of 2009, driven by exports and equipment and construction investment. Inventory accumulation also contributed to the rise in GDP. By contrast, there was bad news on the private consumption side. The Statistical Office said that private consumer spending fell in the third quarter, thus curbing economic growth. Key here was doubtless the end of the cash for clunkers scheme and developments on the labor market. All in all, today’s figures are good news. However, they should not conceal the fact that the German economy still faces a long haul ahead before economic activity is back at its pre-crisis level. The encouraging trend in manufacturing orders and industrial production now evident for months suggests that growth is set to remain dynamic going into next year. In view of the buoyant second half of 2009, an increase in real GDP next year of between 2.5% and 3% could be within reach. But even then the German economy would have made up only around 60% of the collapse in output seen since the first quarter of 2008. Gregor Eder Tel.: 49 / 69 / 2 63 – 5 33 58 e-mail: [email protected] Allianz SE www.group-economics.allianz.com ECONOMIC RESEARCH & CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT The NewsLine page 2 of 2 November 13, 2009 These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Certain of the statements contained herein may be statements of future expectations and other forward -looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. In addit ion to statements which are forward-looking by reason of context, the words ‘may, will, should, expects, plans, intends, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential, or continue’ and similar expressions identify forward -looking statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (i) general economic conditions, including in particular economic conditions in the Allianz Group’s core business and core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets, including emerging markets, (iii) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) the extent of credit defaults (vii) inte rest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange rates including the Euro-U.S. dollar exchange rate, (ix) changing levels of competition, (x) changes in laws and regulations, including monetary convergence and the European Monetary Union, (xi) changes in the policies of central banks and/or foreign governments, (xii) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, (xiii) reorganization measures and (xiv) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or glob al basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences. The matters discussed herein may also involve risks and uncertainties described from time to time in Allianz AG’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company assumes no obligation to update any forwardlooking statement. NO DUTY TO UPDATE The company assumes no obligation to update any information contained herein.