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Structured Mathematics STATISTICS 1 (September 2004 version, based on CC3 & CC4) Assessment format Examination 1h 30 mins Section A: 5 – 7 questions, each worth at most 8 marks. Section B: 2 questions, each worth about 18 marks. 72 marks. Topic Competence Book Reference Progress This section is fundamental to all the Statistics Units (S1-4) Statistical modelling. 1. Be able to abstract from a real world situation to a statistical description (model). 2. Be able to apply an appropriate analysis to a statistical model. 3. Be able to interpret and communicate results. Discuss their implications in real-world terms. 4. Appreciate that a model may need to be progressively refined Sampling 5. Understand the meanings of CC3/pp462-473 CC3/8j/ the terms population and CC4/pp421-429 3, 5, 11 sample. CC4/9a/3 , 5, 7. 6. Be aware of the concept of random sampling. MODELLING DATA PRESENTATION Classification and visual presentation of data. 1. Know how to classify data as categorical, discrete or continuous. 2. Understand the meaning of and be able to construct frequency tables for ungrouped and grouped data. Define class intervals and boundaries. 3. Know how to display categorical using a pie chart or a bar chart. 4. Know how to display discrete data using a vertical line chart. 5. Know how to display continuous data using a histogram for both unequal and equal class intervals. Use of term frequency density. 1 CC3 & 4/pp1-3 CC3/pp17-20 CC4/pp17-19 CC3 & 4/p3 CC4/pp24-26 CC3/pp11-17 CC4/pp9-17 CC3/1b/1 &4 CC4/1b/2 -3 Measures of central tendency and dispersion. 6. Know how to display and interpret data on a stem and leaf diagram. 7. Know how to display and interpret data on a box and whisker plot. 8. Know how to display and interpret a cumulative frequency distribution. CC3/pp4-11 CC4/pp4-8 CC3/1a/3 CC4/1a/6 CC3/pp117-124 CC4/pp92-99 9. Know how to classify frequency distributions showing skewness. Positive and negative skewness. 10. Know how to find mean ( x ), median, mode and midrange. For raw data, frequency distributions and grouped data. 11. Know the usefulness of each of the above measures of central tendency. 12. Know how to find range, percentiles, quartiles and interquartile range. 13. Know how to calculate and interpret mean squared deviation, root mean squared deviation, standard deviation and variance. 14. Be able to use the statistical functions of a calculator to find mean, root mean square deviation and standard deviation. 15. Know how the mean and standard deviation are affected by linear coding. 16. Understand the term outlier. 2SD from the mean and boxplot criterion. CC3/pp99-100 CC4/pp20-21, 88,94-95 CC3/2c/9 CC4/1m/ 1,10-11 CC3/1m/ 3 &1n/3 CC4/1k/3 -4 CC3/2a/4 CC3/pp66-78 CC4/pp58-78 CC3/pp28,30,6266 CC4/pp2, 28-34, 68-78 CC3/1m/ 2;1n/5,6, 8;/1d 6(v) CC4/1d/2 -3;1j/1,2 CC3/pp62-64 CC4/pp68-78 CC3/1n/1 CC4/1j/5; 1k/1, 4 CC4/1f/3, 14-15 CC3/pp34-37 CC4/pp37-44, 447-449 CC3/pp38-42 CC4/pp31-32, 40-42, 449 CC3/1f CC4/1f/1 CC4/9e/2 CC3/pp47-49 CC4/pp56-57 CC3/1i/2 CC4/1i/1 CC3/p125 CC4/p98 (boxplot criterion only) CC4/1m/ 3, 10 PROBABILITY Probability of events in a finite sample space. Probability of two events which are 1. Know how to calculate CC3/p138 probability of one event. CC4/p171 CC3/3a/7 CC4/3a/4 2. Understand the concept of a complementary event and know that the probability of an event can be found by finding that of its complementary event. P( A) 1 P( A) 3. Know how to draw sample space diagrams to help calculate probabilities. CC3/p139 CC4/p173-4 CC4/3a/6 CC3/p140 CC4/p172-3 CC3/3a/5 CC4/3a/ 13-14 2 (i) mutually exclusive (ii) not mutually exclusive Conditional probability 4. Know how to calculate the expected frequency of an event given its probability. 5. Understand the concepts of mutually exclusive events and independent events. 6. Know to add probabilities for mutually exclusive events. P( AorB) P( A) P( B) 7. Know to multiply probabilities for independent events. P( AandB) P( A) P( B) 8. Know how to use tree diagrams to assist in the calculation of probabilities. 9. Know how to calculate probabilities for 2 events which are not mutually exclusive. 10 Be able to use Venn diagrams to help calculations of probabilities for up to 3 events. f(A)=nP(A) CC4/p179, p185 CC4/p179-80 CC4/3b/3 CC4/p185-87 CC4/3c/3 CC3/pp163-9 CC4/pp193-7 CC3/3g/6 CC4/3d/4 CC3/pp142-5 CC4/pp175-6 CC3/3f/2 CC4/3g/ 16 CC3/3b/8 CC4/3b/5 CC3/pp137-147 CC4/ pp175-80 P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B) 11. Know how to calculate the CC3/pp163-174 conditional probabilities by CC4/pp182-191 formula, from tree diagrams or sample space diagrams. P( A B) P( A) P( B A) 12.Know that P( B A) P( B) B and A are independent. CC3/3h/2 CC4/3d/B 1-2 CC4/pp185-6 DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES Probability distributions. Calculation of probability, expectation (mean) and variance. Be able to use probability distribution functions, given algebraically or in tables. 2. Be able to calculate the numerical probabilities for a simple finite distribution. 3. Be able to calculate the Expectation (mean), E(X), in simple cases and understand its meaning. 4. Be able to calculate the variance, Var(X), in simple cases. 1. CC3/p218 CC4/pp233-6 CC3/p224 CC4/p238, pp253-4 CC3/p231 CC4/pp238-243 CC3/p238 CC3/p240 CC4/p249-50 CC3/4a/1 CC4/4a/ 1-2 CC4/4d/2 CC3/4c/5 CC4/4b/3 , 9. CC3/4d/9 ;4e/5 THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING Situations leading to a binomial distribution. 1. Recognise situations which CC3/pp260-3 give rise to a binomial CC4/pp278-283 distribution. 3 CC3/5b/7 CC4/5b/ 21 2. Be able to identify the binomial parameter p, the probability of success. Calculations relating 3. Be able to calculate to binomial probabilities using the binomial distribution. distribution. Including use of tables of cumulative binomial probabilities. 4. Know that n C r is the numbers of ways of selecting r objects from n. 5. Know that n! is the number of ways of arranging n objects in line. Knowledge of mean. 6. Understand and apply mean = np. Calculation of 7. Be able to calculate the expected expected frequencies of the frequencies. various possible outcomes from a series of binomial trials. Hypothesis testing 8. Understand the process of for a binomial hypothesis testing and the probability p. associated vocabulary. 9. Be able to identify Null and Alternative Hypotheses ( H 0 and H 1 ) when setting up a hypothesis test on a binomial probability model. 10. Be able to conduct hypothesis tests at various levels of significance. 11. Be able to identify the critical and acceptance regions. 12. Be able to draw a correct conclusion from the results of a hypothesis test on a binomial probability. 13. Understand when to apply 1-tail and 2-tail tests. CC3/pp260-3 CC4/pp278-285 CC3/5a/8 CC4/5b/ 13 CC3/5a/8 CC4/5b/4 , 17 CC4/p278 CC4/p278 CC3/pp265-6 CC4/pp286-8 CC3/pp273-5 CC4/pp288-9 CC3/5b/1 CC4/5c/1 CC3/5e/2 CC4/5c/ 12 CC3/pp507-10 CC4/pp485-6 CC3/pp539-45 CC4/pp486-9 CC3/10g/ 2 CC4/10a/ 1-2 CC3/pp539-45 CC4/p489 CC3/10g/ 1 CC4/10a/ 4 CC4/10a/ 7 CC4/pp490-1 CC3/pp539-45 CC4/pp488-491 CC3/pp509-11 CC4/p489 CC3/10g/ 2 CC4/10a/ 2, 4 CC3/10g/ 1 CC4/10a/ 1-2 Book references CC3 Crawshaw and Chambers, A Concise Course in A-level Statistics, 3rd edition. CC4 Crawshaw and Chambers, A Concise Course in A-level Statistics, 4th edition. [WG: 05/95; PJM 07/95; PEP 10/00, JA 06/04] 4