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The Eurasia Center 4927 Massachusetts Ave. NW Washington, DC 20016 www.eurasiacenter.org [email protected] Country Report: The Republic of Slovenia Introduction and Overview Slovenia is a small country in southern Central Europe located at the crossroads of major European trade and cultural routes. It is the northernmost of the Balkan states, sharing borders Austria, Croatia, Hungary, and Italy, and the Adriatic Sea through the Gulf of Venice. A fairly young nation-state, Slovenia succeeded in establishing its independence in 1991 from the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia after a short 10-day war.1 Historical ties to Western Europe, a strong economy, and a stable democracy have aided Slovenia’s transformation to a viable modern state.2 Slovenia joined both NATO and the European Union in 2004, the euro zone and the Schengen zone in 2007, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in 2010. The country has seen extraordinary development and modernization over the past two decades, but was dragged into a deep recession by the European financial crisis in 2012. Slovenia has taken significant efforts to improve its economy, and appears to be on the path to recovery. History The Slovene lands were part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire until its dissolution after World War I.3 In 1918 the Slovenes helped to form the multinational Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes, which was later renamed Yugoslavia in 1929. During World War II Slovenia was occupied by Nazi Germany and Italy, and at the end of the war in 1945 became a constituent republic of socialist Yugoslavia. Dissatisfied with the exercise of power by the majority Serbs, Slovenia – along with Croatia – declared independence in 1991. The Yugoslav Federal Army and the Slovene Army engaged in a short 10-day conflict, which resulted in an EU-brokered 1 CIA World Factbook 2 CIA World Factbook 3 CIA World Factbook ceasefire, the withdraw of Yugoslav federal troops, and recognition of national independence.4 Since independence, Slovenia acceded to both NATO and the European Union in 2004, the euro zone and the Schengen zone in 2007, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in 2010. Political Considerations The Republic of Slovenia is a parliamentary republic with a multi-party system. The presidency is largely a ceremonial position, but carries authority in defense and foreign affairs in addition to calling general elections and nominating the prime minister.5 The president is elected for a five-year term in direct elections by secret ballot, and has a two-term limit.6 Borut Pahor, the current president, was prime minister of a center-left government from 2008-2012 until being elected to the position of president in December 2012.7 Executive and administrative authority in Slovenia is held by the Government of Slovenia led by the prime minister, who is elected by the National Assembly and is typically the leader of the majority party or coalition, and the Cabinet of Ministers, who are nominated by the prime minister and elected by the National Assembly.8 Prime Minister Miro Cerar, originally a lawyer and academic, has held the position of prime minister since August 2014.9 The legislative branch is comprised of a bicameral Parliament consisting of the 40-seat National Council and the 90-seat National Assembly. The National Council is primarily an advisory committee with limited legislative authority, and its composition reflects corporate representation.10 The National Assembly holds the majority of legislative authority, and exercises legislative, voting and monitoring functions. Compared to other bicameral systems, the voting power of the Slovenian lower house is exercised over a wider range of issues.11 The judicial branch consists of the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Court.12 Slovenia is considered a successful and stable democracy. Slovenia has been rated “Free” by Freedom House as of 2016, and received a score of 1 (the best possible score) in each of the three categories: ‘Freedom Rating’ ‘Civil Liberties,’ and ‘Political Rights.’13 Slovenia is rated 27th out of 178 countries surveyed in the 2010 Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index, with a score of 5.9.14 4 BBC Country Profile, Slovenia http://www.slovenia.si/slovenia/state/the-president/ 6 http://www.slovenia.si/slovenia/state/the-president/ 7 BBC Country Profile, Slovenia 8 CIA World Factbook 9 BBC Country Profile, Slovenia 10 http://www.slovenia.si/slovenia/state/parliament-the-national-assembly/ 11 http://www.slovenia.si/slovenia/state/parliament-the-national-assembly/ 12 CIA World Factbook 5 13 14 Freedom House, Slovenia, https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2016/slovenia Corruption Perceptions Index, Transparency International, http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2011/results/ Corruption in Slovenia, while less prevalent than in its neighbors, still causes some problems with government function, and usually concerns private-public conflicts of interest among government officials. In the case of former prime minister Janez Janša, who in 2013 was convicted of accepting bribes from the Finnish defense company Patria, the Constitutional Court ruled in April 2015 that the trial had been unfair and ordered a retrial; in September, the court announced that the statute of limitations for the case had expired. There have yet to be any convictions in the long-running Patria case.15 Slovenia has been heavily impacted by Europe’s refugee crisis, and became a transit country after Hungary closed its border with Croatia in October 2015.16 In October Slovenia amended its law on defense to allow the deployment of its military to its borders in order to prevent illegal entrance of refugees.17 In November 2015, amid concerns that Austria might close its borders, Slovenia began building a barbed-wire fence on its border with Croatia to limit the flow of refugees and migrants, prompting protests.18 The fence has resulted in the death of wildlife, and has been criticized for increasing the prevalence of smuggling routes.19 A two-decade border dispute with Croatia—which concerns the delineation of the countries’ maritime border in the Bay of Piran and parts of their common territorial border – continues to be a lasting issue.20 Slovenia also disputes Croatia’s claim to an exclusive economic zone in the Adriatic Sea.21 Economic Considerations Slovenia boasts excellent infrastructure, a well-educated work force, and a strategic location between the Balkans and Western Europe, and as such has one of the highest per capita GDPs in Central Europe. Slovenia was the first 2004 EU-entrant to adopt the euro, which occurred in 2007, and has experienced one of the most stable political transitions in Central and Southeastern Europe. In March 2004, Slovenia became the first transition country to graduate from borrower status to donor partner at the World Bank, and in 2012 Slovenia became a member of the OECD. 22 However, the European financial crisis has posed significant challenges for the Slovene economy. Long-delayed privatizations, particularly within Slovenia’s largely state-owned and increasingly indebted banking sector, have fueled investor concerns since 2012 that the country would need financial assistance from the EU and IMF. Prime Minister Cerar’s government took 15 Freedom House, Slovenia Freedom House, Slovenia 17 Balkan Insight, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/slovenian-migrant-border-fence-could-lead-toviolence-10-24-2016 18 Freedom House, Slovenia 19 Balkan Insight, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/slovenian-migrant-border-fence-could-lead-toviolence-10-24-2016 20 Freedom House, Slovenia 16 21 22 CIA World Factbook, Slovenia section, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/si.html CIA World Factbook, Slovenia. office in 2014 pledging to press ahead with commitments to privatize a select group of state-run companies, rationalize public spending, and further stabilize the banking sector.23 Since 2014, export-led growth, fueled by growing demand in larger European markets and improved costcompetitiveness, has pushed GDP growth. The recovery has become broader-based; private consumption growth has accelerated, boosted by an improving labor market, rising consumer confidence, and continued low energy prices. Investment in infrastructure projects co-funded by the EU also helped boost growth, while private investment began to show initial signs of recovery.24 Economic Indicators - The Gross Domestic Product in Slovenia was $44.12 billion worth in US dollars in 2016.25 This is up from $42.775 billion worth in 2015. However, this is down from the all-time high of $55.59 billion worth in 2008.26 - GDP Per Capita in 2016 was $32,000, up from $31,300 in 2015.27 - GDP Real Growth Rate is predicted at 2.3% in 2016, the same level as in 2015.28 This is significantly improved from -2.894% in 2012 and -8.627% in 2009.29 - Slovenia’s budget revenues amounted to $19.32 billion in 2016, and their expenditures amounted to $20.51 billion. Their budget deficit amounted 2.7% of GDP.30 - Estimated public debt in 2016 is 81.8% of GDP. This ranks 30th among all countries and is a slight decrease from their debt in the previous year, which was 83.7% of GDP in 2015.31 -The inflation rate in Slovenia was -0.2% in 2016, an increase from -0.7% from the previous year.32 - Slovenian imports stand at $25.52 billion, and exports at $27.2 billion. Slovenia’s primary trading partners were Germany, Italy, Austria, Croatia, China, Slovakia, Hungary, and France.33 Economic Structure 23 CIA World Factbook 24 European Commission, Country Report Slovenia 2016, http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/csr2016/cr2016_slovenia_en.pdf 25 CIA World Factbook 26 World Bank, Data, Slovenia, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=SI CIA World Factbook 27 28 CIA World Factbook, 29 World Bank, Data, Slovenia 30 CIA World Factbook 31 CIA World Factbook, Slovenia section, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/si.html 32 CIA World Factbook 33 CIA World Factbook -Slovenia’s economy is based primarily on services, which accounted for 64.1% of their total GDP in 2016. Industry and agriculture accounted for 33.6% and 2.3%, respectively, of total GDP in the same year.34 -Primary industries include: metallurgy and aluminum products, smelting, electronics, trucks, automobiles, power equipment, wood products, textiles, chemicals, and machine tools.35 - Primary agricultural produce consists of: hops, potatoes, wheat, corn, grapes, sugar beets, sheep, cattle, and poultry.36 - In 2012 Slovenia has a rating of 23.7 on the GINI Index, a measure of income distribution in a country. This ranked Slovenia 145th out of 145 countries analyzed – meaning Slovenian society, as of 2012, had the lowest income inequality in the world.37 -Slovenia controls several of Europe’s major transit routes, which has been a boon to commerce in the country.38 Demographics and General Information Population: 1,978,029 39 Population Growth: Negative; -0.29%40 Ethnicity: Slovene 83.1%, Serb 2%, Croat 1.8%, Bosnia 1.6%, Hungarian 0.3%, Italian 0.1% other 2.2%, unknown or unspecified 8.9%41 Religion: Catholic 57.8%, Muslim 2.4%, Orthodox 2.3%, other Christian 0.9%, unaffiliated 3.5%, other or unspecified 23%, no religion 10.1%42 Age: 0-14 years 13.4%, 15-24 years 9.58%, 25-64 years 58.12%, 65 years and over 18.95%43 Capital: Ljubljana44 34 CIA World Factbook CIA World Factbook,. 36 CIA World Factbook,. 37 CIA World Factbook,. 38 CIA World Factbook,. 39""Slovenia Population." Slovenia Population 2016. Accessed June 03, 2016. http://countrymeters.info/en/Slovenia. 40 CIA World Factbook, Slovenia section, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/si.html 41 Slovenia.si Informational and Tourism site, People section, http://www.slovenia.si/en/slovenia/country/people/ 42 CIA World Factbook 43 CIA World Factbook, Slovenia section, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/si.html 44 CIA World Factbook 35 Acknowledgements Research and Data Development Provided by: Sophie Qiao and Olivia de Vesci, Research Assistants, under the Supervision and Coordination of: Dr. Gerard J. Janco, President, Eurasia Center/EBC