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HUMAN RIGHTS AND HUMAN DEVERLOPMENT
UNIVERSITY OF JORDAN – AMMAN September 21-23, 2010
Title: Construction of a new indicator of development for the
African countries
Authors : Dr KAMGA TCHWAKET Ignace, Ms Sorel CHOMTEU KOUAM and Mr Adolphe
Freddy ELOUNDOU
Presenter : Dr KAMGA TCHWAKET Ignace,
[email protected]
ABSTRACT
Since the Second World War, the economic growth to characterize the development
was dreaded by the international community through a certain number of indicators.
And so the GDP was used for a long time as the reference but considering the fact
that this indicator does not take into account certain aspects of the development
such as the well-being and the sustainable development, the UNDP proposed another
indicator, the Human Development Index (HDI).
Africa, the poorest continent of the world presents certain number of peculiarities
which are not totally taken into account by the various indicators of development
which were elaborated until now. This report biases a little the vision of the
development which we can have of Africa. So, according to the indicator GDP by
head it would seem that in 2005, Equatorial Guinea is the country the most
developed in Africa, in front of Libya, South Africa and Nigeria. The HDI came a little
to improve the measure of the development in particular in Africa. However it does
not take into account all the aspects relative to the development of the African
continent.
In fact, the HDI does not include a very important dimension which is the one of the
insertion of the populations in the active life. So, leaving of this report we elaborated
a new indicator of development for Africa. This indicator, which we named Human
Development Indicator for Africa (HDIA) was obtained by adding to the HDI the
dimension occupational integration which we measure with an indicator of insertion
calculated from the widened unemployment rate.
The results obtained by simulations on some African countries were very decisive.
Certain countries as Lesotho, the Burkina Faso saw their HDIA decreasing with
regard to the HDI because of an indicator of very low insertion. This report is very
relevant because it allows to notice that there is numerous efforts of insertion to be
made in the country to move on the path of the development. We also noticed that
certain countries saw rather their HDIA increasing with regard to the HDI. It allows
to notice that the country was on a good path of struggle against poverty, but efforts
should be realized in connection with the level of the HDIA.
Keywords: Africa - Unemployment rate - GDP - HDI- HDIA
JEL CLASSIFICATION : O11 and O15
1
INTRODUCTION
After the second world war, the concept of development takes a big importance and
characterize a meaningful economic growth on a long period, some, tie with the
industrial development. The concepts of growth and development are associated
therefore. The economists according to war measured the development of a country
to leave per capita from the GNP or the GDP to constant price to define the economic
growth.
Finally, if the growth, of quantitative order, results in economic sizes, the,
development, of qualitative order, goes beyond the simple growth.
Facing the present requirements of the lasting development and to the caused
damages on the environment, the society in his/her/its whole is brought to question
the concept of human development and of economic growth according to war. A
new look impose himself with the introduction of the sociocultural dimension of the
lasting development. To to leave from years 1960, the concept of development
integrates a dynamic perspective suggesting some objectives to reach and of
orientations to arrive there. For that to make, of the tools, of follow-up and
assessment must get in place.
At the end years 1980, the Program of the Nations United for the Development,
(UNDP) proposes to measure the human development level. In this context, are
developed the indications of the UNDP: the Human Development indicator (HDI), the
indicator of Human Poverty (IHP) and the indicator of Feminine Involvement to the
economic life and politics (IFI). It is about elaborating the indications that have the
tendency to situate the man in the center of the device of the development while
integrating the socio-economic dimension. Of the difficulties definitions emerge as
soon as the concept of development is landed. These indications are therefore born
in this context of discount in reason of a certain number of concepts and of
indicators, as the GDP.
Today the development corresponds in general to an improvement of the quality of
life of a population, to an organization of the structure of the productive system, to
one, change in the qualification of the work hand, to the change of practices and of
mentalities of the citizens and the society all whole. He/it must also take in
consideration the level of urbanization, literacy and culture, the reduction of the
inequalities in general (reduction of unemployment and the poverty of the
population).
Africa being the continent of the world the less developed, one could land the
following questions:
-
Is what the HDI measures in fact the development of Africa in other words,
does hold he/it counts all realities of the African continent?
-
How can construct one a new indicator of development so that him does answer
the specificities of Africa?
2
To answer these questions us set for objective to construct a new indicatory of
development for the countries Africans and that, leaving from the HDI. We go
therefore to modify the HDI and to adapt it to the African context.
The article so understands three essential chapters. The first proposes a diagnosis of
the situation of development in Africa. The second is relative to a magazine of the
literature bound to the indicators of development and the third chapter relates the
methodology of development of the HDIA as well as the simulations and subsequent
comparisons.
I-LEVEL OF DELOPPEMENT IN AFRICA
Of a surface of 30 221 532 km2 while including the islands, Africa is a continent
covering 6% of the terrestrial surface, and 20,3% of the surface of the earths
emerged. With one valued population to 996 533 200 inhabitants in 2009, the
Africans represent 15,54% of the world population. The continent is edged by the
Mediterranean Sea to the north, the channel of Suez, and the Red sea to the
northeast, the ocean Indian to the southeast and the Atlantic ocean to the west.
Africa consists of 48 countries while including Madagascar, and 53 while including all
archipelagos Africa rides the equator and include many climates: moderate to the
north and to the south, hot and desert along the tropics, hot and humid on the
equator. In reason of the lack of regular precipitations and irrigations, all as glaciers
or of systems mountainous aquiferous, means of regulation natural of the climate
don't exist there to the exception.
I.1 Political Environment
The research of the peace, the stability and of the development were the main
tendency of the political situation in Africa these last years. The countries of Africa,
the OAU, (Organization of the African Union) and other regional organizations
attached a big importance to the unit of this continent and to his/her/its construction
with concerted efforts. To the course of the two summits of the OAU in 1999, they
insisted strongly on the panafricanism, for to achieve the African rebirth thanks to
conjoined efforts.
The African nations got involved therefore in an initiative having to return bound
economically, politically and culturally the African States. On another plan, they have
advanced the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to recognize the bad working of its
programs of poverty reduction because non adapted to the African context, and
encouraged it to elaborate new plans 1 aiming to help Africa to reduce poverty and to
develop the economy.
The continent is rich in natural resources, but the incomes descended of the
merchandising of his/her/its resources is often diverted by the leaders, and are to
the origin of civil wars. Otherwise, the institutional setting (State of right, markets,
financial…) necessary to the economic development is unsteady or simply nonexistent in several countries of Africa of which in particular those of central Africa.
1
It is the example of the quinquennial plans elaborated in Cameroon.
3
The failures wiped by all plans of help carried by the industrialized countries and not
implying the African countries, drove the chiefs of African states to put in place of
new programs of development of Africa initiated by the African themselves.
This new will of the African has been called New Partnership heart African
Developpment (NEPAD).
I.2 Economic Environment
Africa is economically the poorest continent of the world2 : the global GDP of Africa
being only of 1.621 billions of dollars in 2008 (according to the exchange rates
official of the currencies of the year 2008), either 2,62% of the world GDP. The GDP
is per capita there on average of 1 636 $whereas the world average out of Africa is
located to 10 460 $by living and the average world Africa included to 9 170 $per
capita (always in rate of official change 2008 and not in psp3).
The governments many African countries are faltering, and often very close to the
bankruptcy. The annulment of debts is regularly necessary. The southern Africa,
some, particular South Africa, and the countries of Maghreb are economically more
prosperous than the central Africa and West Africa.
For the year 2007, the middle growth was of 5.8% against 5,2% in 2005, the, world
average being of 3.7% (2007). some disparities hide Behind this average import: the
countries exporters of hydrocarbons progressed more quickly than the other, to the
continuation of the rise of the courses of oil; others regressed, and particularly the
Zimbabwe, that knew a serious crisis. The countries exporters of oil recorded one
budgetary excess of 5.3% of the GDP while the importing countries display a deficit
of 1.2%, the continental average being of +1.7%.
The inflation was on average of 7% between 2002 and 2007. In 2007, 60% of the
countries of Africa, knew a rate of inflation equal or superior to 5%. Besides, the
total outside debt is of 255 billions of dollars. The agreements of alleviation of the
debt brought back the public debt of 205.7 billions in 1999 to 114.5 billions in 2007.
The private debt is as for it track of 92.4 to 110,2 billions.
The sector of the services represents the biggest part of the GDP with 44,7%,
followed of the industry (41,5%) and of agriculture (13,8%). In 2006, the sectors
industrial and agricultural one recorded the strongest growth with respectively 5.7
and 5%.
The rate of unemployment stays very elevated; it is the case, in 2007 Zimbabwe with
one rate of 80%, of Burkina with a rate of 77%, of the Zambia 50% and of the
Senegal 48%4.
I.3 States of the places of the development in Africa
Lacoste (1959) cleared 15 criterias permitting to recognize a country under
developed: the food insufficiency, the difficulty of agriculture modernization, the
weakness of the, income national means, a weak degree of industrialization, the
weak consumption of energy, mechanical, the economic subordination, the
2
3
4
The numbers that follow come from WIKIPEDIA.
parity of the spending power (PSP)
Source : www.statistiques-mondiales.com
4
hypertrophy of the commercial sector, of the late social structures, the weak
development of the middle classes, the weakness of the national integration, the
importance of the underemployment, the weak level of instruction, the strong,
mortality, a deficient sanitary state, the awareness. Of all countries of the third world
those of Africa are those that fill these criterias easily.
In Africa, two types of agriculture exist mainly: agriculture of subsistence and the
agriculture of export. The agriculture of subsistence is characterized by one slowness
of the increase of the production and fluctuations pronounced of one year to the
other. It constitutes major and chronic problems, and constitute the main reasons of
the aggravation of poverty and the food security. Indeed, between 1969 and 1998
the proportion of the African population enduring malnutrition passed of 41 to 43%.
With regard to the agriculture of export, the involvement of the African countries to
the international trade of agricultural products is petty and don't stop decreasing.
Their part of the world exports of agricultural products constantly lowered, falling of
3.3% in 1970-79 to 1.9% in 1980-89 and to 1,5% only in 1990-98. Thus, one has
successively assisted to a reduction of the agricultural income of the African
populations and as agriculture is the main generating activity of income in Africa, the
income in Africa, income that rest to decrease since the beginning of the years 705.
The demographic indicators of Africa are in the "red" and don't seem quickly to
improve with the passing of the years. Between 2000 and 2005 the infantile death
rate is past of 100.5 to 96.3 for one thousand in sub-Saharan Africa, and of 48.9 to
43.4 for one thousand in the rest of Africa. It translates the rudimentary state of the
sanitary structures in Africa.
One notes as well as the development of Africa is very far from being achieved.
Indeed, the constant decrease of the spending power, the increase of unemployment
and the weakness of the African institutions return this under more and more
present development in the daily of the African. However, the indicators of
development used on the international stage don't materialize this reality of the same
way.
II-EMPIRIC ASPECTS ON THE INDICATORS OF DEVELOPMENT TIED TO
THE ECONOMY
II.1 The different indicatory of development
In the optics to fear the level of development of the countries in the world, the
international community uses a whole set of quantitative and qualitative indicators of
development.
I.1.1 Indicateurs bound to the national accounting
a) The GDP
The gross domestic product (GDP) is an economic indicator very used, that measures
the level of production of a country. It is defined as the total value of the internal
production of goods and services in a country given during one year given by the
agents residing to the inside of the national territory. It is also the measure of the
income coming from the production in a given country. One sometimes speaks of
5
The previous numbers come from FAOSTAT
5
yearly economic production or merely of production. The variation of the GDP is the
indicator the more used to measure the growth economic: a short-term increase of
the GDP corresponds to an expansion, while that a reduction indicates an economic
recession.
• Origin
To the demand of the American convention in 1932, Simon Kuznets created an
accounting national to the United States, and invented the gross domestic product
therefore, in 1934 in order to measure the effect of the Big Depression on the
economy. One didn't arrange to this time of none synthetic indicator. In France, it
appeared after World War II, all, as the national accounting.
• Methods of calculation
The GDP is a measure of the value of the set of goods and services produced on the
territory of a country given during one period data (in general, one year, sometimes
one quarter), whatever is the nationality of the producers.
The GDP can decompose itself of three manners:
By the production
The GDP is equal to the sum of the values added of the economic agents residents,
calculated to the prices of the market, to which one adds the part of the value added
recovered by the state (Tax value-added and right of custom).
By the expenses
The GDP is equal to the sum of the interior final jobs of goods and services, it is to say: the efficient final consumption, the investment, the variations of stocks. This
definition deducts itself of the equality accountant between resources of the
economy (GDP) and the jobs that are made of these resources.
By the incomes
The GDP is equal to the sum of the raw incomes of the institutional sectors:
remuneration of the salaried employees, taxes on the production and the imports
less the subsidies, raw excess, of exploitation, balance of income with the outside.
• The GDP per capita
The PIB/habitant or gross domestic product per capita (or by head) is the value of
the GDP divided by the number of inhabitants of a country. It is more efficient than
the GDP to measure the development of a country, he/it often acts as indicator of
the standard of living in this sense that he/it gives a value indicative of the spending
power; in 2006, one considered that a country is "developed" when its GDP by head
passed the 20 000 US dollars. The increase to long term of the GDP is per capita an
indicator of economic growth. However, it is that an average therefore it doesn't
permit to give account of the income inequalities and of wealth within a population.
• Limits of the GDP
GDP and lasting development
By definition, the GDP is an indicator of flux and doesn't hold account of the value
6
valued of the active and passive (the heritage) public and private. It doesn't
measure the therefore positive or negative externalities that makes evolve this value
and that contribute to one therefore gain or to a loss of means.
For Méda (1999), he/it presents three big limits: he/it doesn't take into account time
and of essential activities for the development of the society as the time with the
near, time for the political activities, domestic times,; he/it is not affected by the
inequalities in the involvement to the production or to the consumption; it doesn't
take into account the deteriorations brought to the natural heritage.
The GDP takes into account the natural resources (energy, raw materials) consumed
in the processes of production in national accounting by the intermediate
consumptions. However, the national accounting doesn't distinguish, in the
intermediate consumptions, the extendable resources of the non extendable
resources, (that is to say those that are a matter for an use of income and those
that are a matter for one
destruction of capital), or the products recycled of the other bought products. For
Jancovici (2009), the GDP doesn't permit to value the consumption of the stock of
natural resources nor to anticipate the environmental risks a long time in advance.
Concerning the sector of the services, that represents about 70% of the GDP in the
countries developed, Gadrey (2007) esteem that to construct an ecological economy
of the services, it is necessary to be interested first in the complete ecological
balances of these activities. It appears then that immateriality sometimes supposed
of the services is a myth. It would be necessary to domestic the environmental
externalities of these activities.
In the case of a polluting production, consistent of a process of put out pollution, the
GDP, post two productions, those partially annul themselves. That that Kohr (1977)
names "the standard of the aspirin: as increasing the GDP us catches some
migraines, then us let's produce the aspirin to relieve the migraines and we are
pleased that this supplementary increase of the GDP increased our standard of
living". The GDP is neutral screw - to-screw of a technical progress that goes in the
sense of the conception of industrial processes clean, the use of materials recycled,
and broadly speaking the anticipation of the risks environmental. The GDP doesn't
send any signal of alert on the deterioration of the environment.
Thus, the GDP doesn't permit to measure the impact of the production on the natural
capital.
The economic growth measured by the GDP doesn't look therefore well account of
the respect or no of the principles of lasting development nor his/her/its effects on
the environment.
Productions non holds in account
The GDP doesn't take into account the self-production (or self-consumption), that
means the wealth produced and consumed to the breast-same of the households: for
example the fruits of one orchard that is self-consumed, or the domestic production
(domestic activities of the homemakers for example). The services produced by the
households for their own use would add 35% to the national wealth in France toward
7
2009. Consequently it is not robust to the variations of the life habits, in particular
the passage of the self-consumption to the consumption bargains.
Work to the black is badly measured, and his/her/its added value is estimated and
included in the GDP. The voluntary, that is a service non merchant, is very badly
measured. He/it is delicate of to encode the real contribution of the services non
merchants and the public administration to the economic wealth, the practice being
to integrate their costs merely to the GDP, in the absence, of products materialized
by invoicing.
• GDP and well-being
The GDP is not constructed like an indicator of the well-being, happiness, or quality
of life. Thus, some consumptions have the GDP inflated whereas obviously them
don't reflect an improvement of the happiness of the inhabitants. However, below
one certain doorstep (about 15 000 dollars per year and per person), the increase of
the GDP by living is correlated strongly to the increase of the well-being of the
population, according to a survey, published in 2001 by the university of Princeton.
b) The GNP by head
The gross national product (GNP) is the sum of the value of the products finished
and of the services generated by a society during one year data, to the exclusion of
goods, intermediate. The GNP only counts the incomes won by the citizens, while
including the wages and profits stored by them abroad. He/it is similar to the GDP,
except that he/it includes the come back inside the borders of a country, including
those of the foreign residents, but excludes the wages and profits won by the
nationals of the country from the sources foreign. The GNP presents the same limits
that the GDP on the measure of the development.
c) The structural indicators
One distinguishes there: the sectorial distribution of the activities (of the GDP) and
distribution sectorial of the active population. These indicators inform us on the place
of the sector primary and of the secondary sector in the GDP. Of a general manner,
the importance of the, secondary sector in the GDP is considered like a sign obvious
of the development.
Inversely, an important primary sector is revealing of the predominance of the
structures farming traditional to strong self-consumption and to weak capacity of
accumulation.
He/it is some in the same way of the sectorial distribution of the active population.
More the fraction of the occupied work hand in the industrial sector is raised the
country more commits in the process of development.
II.1.2 The indicators of economic dependence
One keeps two categories:
• the indicators of commercial domination:
-
the part of the outside trade in the GDP named degree of measured
vulnerability by (X+M)/GDP;
8
-
the degree of diversification of the exports by the part of the 3 main products
exported/total exportations ;
-
the geographical concentration measured by the percentage of the sales to the
main produces in relation to the total exports.
• the indicators of financial domination:
-
Aid emanating a country in relation to the total aid;
-
External financing/investment;
-
outstanding discounted bills of the debt/GDP.
II.2 The human development indicator
• Context of its development
Developed in 1990 by the Pakistani economist Mahbub Haq ul and the Indian
economist Amartya Sen, the Human Development indication (HDI) is born in a
context of discount in progressive reason of the traditional monetary indicators of the
economic development, of type Gross domestic product (GDP). Become with the
passing of the time the leading indicator of the creation of wealth then of the
economic development, the GDP lends the flank indeed to numerous critical:
- first of all, the GDP is not a patrimonial indicator: it doesn't give no information on
the capital of a society (natural, human capital, nor even financier) and measure the
production only (the fluxes) that he/it assimilates systematically to one creation of
wealth;
- of this fact, the GDP posts the monetary fluxes of all natures indistinctly, and this
whatever is the positive or negative aspect that these fluxes regain for the society:
flux bound to polluting activities or the repair of damages generated by some natural
disasters participate thus in the increase of the GDP (whereas these phenomena are
destructive of "social" or "natural" capital);
- at contrario, the GDP ignores the positive activities for the society if these are not
shopkeepers (public services, voluntary…);
- finally, the GDP doesn't provide any information on fundamental qualitative data of
the development, as health, the education, the quality of the setting of life and the,
social relations.
Leaning on the critique of the GDP, the experts of the Program of the Nations United
for the Development (UNDP) proposed, from the end of the years 1980, the
alternative concept, of human development, illustrated by the HDI. More qualitative
than the simple growth economic, the human development structures itself around
three measurements:
- the capacity to benefit from one long and healthy life,
- the access to the education and to the knowledge,
- the access to the indispensable material resources to reach a standard of living
decent.
9
• Definition
The human development indication or HDI is a composite statistical indication,
created, by the UNDP in 1990, valuing the level of development human of the
countries of the world.
The concept of the human development is larger than what of it describes the HDI
that some is that an indicator. For Sen as for the UNDP, the development is rather, in
last analysis, a process of widening of the choice of people that a simple increase of
the national income.
• Principles
The HDI is a composite indicator, without dimension, included between 0
(loathsome) and 1 (excellent), calculated by the average of three indications
quantifying respectively:
-
health / longevity (measured by the life expectancy to the birth), that permits to
measure the satisfaction of the essential material needs indirectly as the access
to a healthy food, to the drinking water, to a decent lodging, to one, good
hygiene and to the medical care. In 2002, the Division of the population of the
United nations took in account in his/her/its evaluation the demographic impacts
of the epidemic of the AIDS for 53 countries, against 45 in 2000.
-
the knowledge or level of education. He/it is measured by the rate of literacy of
the adults (percentage of the 15 years and more knowing to write and to
understand comfortably a medicated short and simple text of the daily life) and
the raw rate of schooling (combined measure of the rates for the primary, the
secondary and the superior). It translates the satisfaction of the immaterial
needs as the capacity to participate in the decision makings on the workplace or
in the society.
-
the standard of living (logarithm of the gross domestic product per capita in
parity of spending power), in order to include the elements of the life quality
that are not described by the first two indications as the mobility or the access
to the culture.
The used data are those communicated by the States to the UNO. THE HDI is always
published with a certain delay, calculated bus from generally collected numbers two
years earlier.
Method of Calculation
The HDI is worth
HDI = (A+D+E)/3
Where A, D and E are respectively the indications of longevity, level of education and
level of life.
The calculation of the indications is given in the picture 1.
10
Picture 1 : Calculation of the composing indicators the human development indication
Indication
Measure
Longevity
Life
expectancy to 25 years
the birth (LEB)
Rate of literacy 0%
Education
Standard of living
(RL)
Raw
Rate
of
schooling (RRS)
Logarithm of the
GDP per capita
(PSP)
minimal
Value
0%
maximal
Value
Formula
85 years
A=(LEB-25)/60
100%
100%
D=(2RL+PSP)/3
E=(Log10GDP-2)/2.60206
USD 100
USD 40 000
Source : UNDP
• Limits
Although being incontestably more qualitative than the only GDP, the HDI is not able
to for as much to be considered like a lasting development indicator, by far. Some
particular, the HDI doesn't bring any information on the environmental themes or on
the integration of the long term (the generations to come) in the fashions of
development.
Otherwise, the HDI has the defect of all aggregations: it supposes that its
components are commensurable. That means that, for example, an increase of the
life expectancy would be substituable to an increase of the production bargains. "All
choices of level-headedness used to construct this indicator (and the similar others)
reflect the judgments of value that have some implications to be subject to
controversies: for example, to add the logarithm of the GDP by head to the level of
the life expectancy gives 20 times implicitly more of value to one supplementary year
of life expectancy in the united States than in India. More fundamentally, being
based on national averages, these measures ignore the meaningful interrelationship
between the different aspects of the life quality among people, and says anything on
the distribution of the individual conditions in every country. Consequently, the
combined indication would not change if the middle performances in every domain
remained the same whereas the interrelationship of the individual conditions
between domains would decline. »
The HDI is founded on official national statistics, whose reliability is very unequal, for
example for what concerns the rate of literacy, overestimated in some, country.
On the other hand, the fashion of calculation of the elementary indications is
questionable enough. Thus, the choice of the log of the GDP has per capita the effect
of reducing the gaps considerably of
wealth (on the whole, a doubling of the
standard of living results in a rise of the indication of standard of living of 0,1).
Finally, in relation to the initial vision of Sen Amartya, that defines the development
as process of expansion of the liberties, the absence of hold in account of the public
liberties in the HDI are a serious defect, especially since of the indications of public
liberties constructed by centers of research exist.
11
Picture 2 : GDP by head in 2005 and HDI in 2007 for African countries
Countries
Equatorial
Guinea
Mauricio
Seychelles
Libya
South Africa
Botswana
Tunisia
Algeria
Gabon
Namibia
Green Cape
Morocco
Swaziland
Egypt
Angola
Ghana
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Mauritania
Cameroon
Lesotho
Gambia
Guinea
Djibouti
Senegal
Uganda
Chad
Comoros
Sao Tome and
Principe
Togo
Cote d’Ivoire
Rwanda
Congo
Mozambica
Burkina Faso
Nigeria
Centre Africa
Benin
Kenya
Mali
Eretria
GDP by head
18 507
Rank
1
HDI
0.719
Rank
7
13 029
12 135
11 354
11 035
10 866
8 223
7 095
6 977
6 658
6 287
5 765
5 181
4 282
2 829
2 601
2 417
2 413
2 307
2 284
2 163
1 999
1 986
1 957
1 914
1 817
1 744
1 717
1 638
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
0.804
0.845
0.847
0.683
0.694
0.769
0.754
0.755
0.686
0.708
0.654
0.572
0.703
0.564
0.526
0.531
3
2
1
12
10
4
6
5
11
8
13
17
9
18
23
21
0.520
0.523
0.514
0.456
0.435
0.520
0.464
0.514
0.392
0.576
0.651
25
24
27
38
40
26
36
28
45
16
14
1 600
1 475
1 431
1 379
1 335
1 326
1 188
1 163
1 147
1 125
1 084
917
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
0.499
0.484
0.460
0.601
0.402
0.389
0.511
0.369
0.492
0.541
0.371
0.472
30
33
37
15
42
46
29
49
32
20
48
35
12
Madagascar
917
Zambia
911
Sierra Leone
901
Liberia
900
Niger
896
Ethiopia
859
Bissau Guinea
856
Burundi
753
Tanzania
720
Democratic
675
Republic
of
Congo
Somalia
600
Malawi
596
Source : WIKEPEDIA
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
0.543
0.481
0.365
0.442
0.340
0.414
0.396
0.394
0.530
0.389
19
34
50
39
51
41
43
44
22
47
52
53
0.493
31
The picture 2 clears the value of the GDP by head and the HDI thus for all African
countries.
One notes that these indicators don't impute the same level of development in the
countries African. Whereas the GDP by head places at the head of development the
African countries having one strong oil production, the HDI seems to take more in
account the well-being of the populations African in the assessment of the level of
development of their respective country. One notes indeed that according to the GDP
by head, the Equatorial Guinea would have a level of development superior to the
one of Libya (GDP by head 16507USD for the Equatorial Guinea and 11354 USD
for Gabon). This report doesn't seem probable because there is a short time,
Equatorial Guinea didn't arrange an international airport even. This observation is
tributary of the limits of the GDP as for the human dimension to the extent of the
development that it makes.
Indeed, this strong level of development is only owed to a strong production of oil
and no to an important standard of living of the populations. The HDI seems to take
better into account the realities African. Indeed, he/it would seem that Libya has a
level of development extensively superior to the one of the Equatorial Guinea (HDI
0.847 for Libya and 0.719 for Equatorial Guinea). However, one could wonder if the
HDI takes into account all realities African in its assessment of the development
level.
III - DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW INDICATOR OF DEVELOPPEMET:
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDICATOR for AFRICA (HDIA)
III.1 Theoretical Justifications
The relative questions to the construction of composite indicators are not new.
They emerged during the years 1950, in the wake of the reflections on the,
development of the countries of the Third-world. He/it appeared very early that the
notion of development didn't limit itself only criteria of the economy, measured by
the GDP by head, but had to also integrate social and political notions (Lewis 1955,
13
Baster 1972). The composite indicators were not whereas a tool among others, and
the accent was more put on the relations between indicators, tested by means of the
tools of analysis multi varied. Them became a main object of analysis to the turn of
the years 1980 and 1990, following the, creation of the human development
indicator (HDI) by the UNO.
Among the qualities of the HDI, several authors recognize him the advantage to have
reopened the debate on the measure of the development, whatever is the critiques
methodological make to the indicator (Fukuda-Parr 2001, Sagar & Najam 1998,
Streeten, 1994). The reflections on the development cleared the disciplinary borders,
in the measure where these questions are not treated anymore by the only
economists, and permitted of to bring closer the preoccupations of the scientists and
policies. The HDI didn't make less of them the object of very numerous critiques.
The first concerns the availability, the quality and the comparability of the data
(Chamie 1994, Srinivasan 1994). for example, 40% of the countries have no data on
the rate clean of primary schooling (Wolf & Naudet 2000). In that case the necessary
data to the construction of the HDI is estimated; in other cases, when the data are
available but of bad quality, the procedures of correction are sometimes very
problematic.
This question of the data questions the reliability of the HDI again.
The procedure of transformation of the variables was also the subject of critiques,
some, particular with regard to the PIB/hab. In the first version of the HDI, the GDP
by head was transformed according to a complex logarithmic pseudo formula
(Atkinson) correspondent to one function refines by piece as from a certain level of
income, the growth of the GDP modified minute way the score of the component
standard of living of the GDP only, and the gaps between the countries passing 6000
$were annulled per capita practically. Sagar & Najams criticize this transformation
while taking the example of Switzerland and Mexico such that they appear in the
Report on the development human of 1997: whereas the GDP by head some
Switzerland is new times superior the one of Mexico, the transformation succeeds to
of the values nearly identical (the PIB/hab. some Switzerland is not more superior
than of 3% to the one of Mexico (Sagar & Najam 1998). The authors propose an
uniform application of the logarithmic transformation to avoid such results, what has
been introduced in the calculation, of the HDI from 1999.
The manner to aggregate the three components of the HDI can be the object of
some questions. It is about a simple arithmetic average. However, the additivity
supposes that the three criterias are perfectly substitutes, and that a weakness in
one can be compensated by a level raised in another, what is reductionist in relation
to the, conception given of the human development (Booysen 2002, Desai 1991).
Some suggest the use of a log-additive shape to avoid this problem (Desai 1991); for
of others, it would be necessary to multiply the variables and no to add them, what
would permit of better to take in consideration the cases where a variable is well
lower to the two other (Sagar & Najam, op. cit).
Otherwise, some authors also underline some limits with regard to comparability in
the time of the levels of the HDI. Every year, new countries are taken in
14
consideration, what changes the ordering, without counting the methodological
modifications.
Certainly, at the time of every publication, a retrospective ordering of the countries is
given for the previous years. This change modified the ordering of the countries,
permitting notably, to those that have some GDP by head elevated but a more
mediocre educational or sanitary politics of to go back up and to win several places
(United States, oil monarchies, etc.).
As Walrus showed it (2003), while comparing the different methods used by the
UNDP according to the years to calculate the HDI, the results present a volatility very
big: differences according to the values minimal and maximal holds in account for
the indication of the life expectancy, differences according to whether the indication
of the income is calculated according to the formula of Atkinson or the complete
logarithmic method (Walrus 2003). THE HDI would not be finally anything else that a
statistical artifact according to some authors (Lüchters & Menckhoff 1996).
Finally, the HDI also attracts some critiques on the measurements that it doesn't take
some account. Thus, the indicator doesn't contain measure of the intra-national
inequalities and interpersonal, it doesn't take in account the unemployment that is a
key factor of the under development and that, especially in Africa. Ideally, each of
the three measurements should include such information (Hicks 1997). other authors
plead to take in account the environmental measurements and of lasting
development in the HDI (Walrus 2003, Neumayer 2001). Behind these quarrels of
experts conceal themselves often of the reports by force institutional between the
different world agencies, with the classic cleavage that one recovers to the European
level between the specialists of the socioeconomic (Eurostat) and the specialist of the
environment (Agency European of the environment).
With regard to this last point, the relative literature to the indicator of human
development defers the one on the indicators of lasting development (ILD): the first
would be oriented bip-down more, since political goals a priori until their translation
by the indicators, while the second would be more Botton-ups and would leave from
the given (Walrus 2004).
Our survey carrying on the construction of a composite indicator of development
for the countries Africans coming closer more of the style of the HDI since we go us
to push mainly on the HDI, we won't present here the contributions of the literature
on the IDD but it is necessary to underline that she/it is as immense and shaggy as
those dedicated to the human development.
III.2 Presentation of the methodology used
Leaving from the limits of the HDI, our indicator intends not of landing to all limits,
but is going to elaborate on the addition of a dimension non taken explicitly in
account by the HDI, it is about the professional insertion that we measure by the
complementary of the widened unemployment rate or rate of coins invisible use. We
use the same therefore methodology that the one used for the calculation of the HDI
to know normalization of the indications elementary and aggregation by an
arithmetic average.
15
III.2.1 Principles and Choices of the variables
As the HDI, the indication of African human development (HDIA) that we propose, is
a composite indicator, without dimension, included between 0 (loathsome) and 1
(excellent), calculated by the average of four indications quantifying respectively:
• health / longevity (measured by the life expectancy to the birth), that permits of to
measure the satisfaction of the essential material needs indirectly as the access to a
healthy food, to the drinking water, to a decent lodging, to a good hygiene and to
the medical care.
• the knowledge or level of education. He/it is measured by the rate of literacy of the
adults (percentage of the 15 years and more knowing to write and to understand a
short text comfortably and simple medicated of the daily life) and the raw rate of
schooling (measure combined of the rates for the primary, the secondary and the
superior). It translates the satisfaction of the immaterial needs as the capacity to
participate in the holds of decision on the workplace or in the society.
• the standard of living (logarithm of the gross domestic product per capita in parity
of power of purchase), in order to include the elements of the life quality that are not
described by the first two indications as the mobility or the access to the culture.
• The rate of insertion: who measures the percentage of people being part of the
active population having an use (It is the complementary to 100 the rate of
unemployment widened). The rate of unemployment being the percentage of people
being part of the active population who is out of work. The active population is the
population in age to work and that works or wish to work. He/it measures the
capacity of the country to make to work his/her/its active population. We added this
dimension worthy of the development because today in Africa one would not know
how to speak of development without to take into account the activity of the African
populations; indeed, unemployment is there very present and constitute a
considerable brake to the development of Africa.
An unemployed person is a person who doesn't have an use and that searches for
one of it. It is one dimension forgotten by the HDI. Certainly the HDI takes in
account the rate of schooling but it is necessary to note that in Africa some schooled
people generally stagnate in the unemployment. However a lasting development
passes by the reduction of unemployment, because even though it is true that a
good schooling of the population is a necessary condition to encourage the
development, it would be necessary to think also about to insert these populations
schooled in the active life, instead of letting enlarge them the ranks of unemployed
person. For that to make, it would be necessary to create some jobs notably by the
development of agriculture that is a sector using a lot of hand of work. It is
necessary to specify that unemployment is a complex phenomenon while in the
countries developed more one is instructed more one has some odds to have an use.
In Africa one notices that the unemployed person are sometimes people educated,
brief a country can have one elevated schooling rate, but otherwise to present a
strong rate of unemployment. So one can believe that in the developed countries the
HDI can approach the level of development, by against in the African countries, it
imports to take into account the professional insertion (part consequent of the
unemployment rate). Some recent proceedings even think that the only means of to
16
fight against poverty in Africa is to make work the individuals, it means, to create the
lasting jobs and the decent jobs.
III.2.2 Normalisation
Transposing the principles of the HDI, we conducted the normalization of the set of
the variables while bringing back them on one interval [0;1]. We kept the therefore
method of interpolation between maximal and minimal values of the distributions.
For the other variables, we keep the normalization used by the HDI. For that who is
of the rate of insertion, that depends on the unemployment rate, it is necessary to
say that the ideal would be to have a rate of insertion of the active population equals
to 100%. The maximal value of 100% of the insertion rate are an ideal toward which
all country must stretch to assure its development.
For the minimal value of the rate of insertion of 0% (that means a rate of
unemployment widened of 100%), it seems very strict some bus either the country
one estimates that one would be able to find at least a worker, but in the literature
there is not a rate indeed of maximal unemployment, we will be content therefore
with the one found algebraically since it is about a rate expressed in percentage
having a minimal value of 0% therefore.
Picture 3: Calculation of the composing indicators the human development indication
Indication
Measure
Longevity
Life
expectancy to 25 years
the birth (LEB)
Rate of literacy 0%
Education
(RL)
Raw
Rate
of
schooling (RRS)
Standard of living Logarithm of the
GDP per capita
(PSP)
Professional
Rate of insertion
insertion
(1-C) avec C =
rate
of
unemployment
Source : Our proposal
minimal
Value
0%
maximal
Value
Formula
85 years
A=(LEB-25)/60
100%
100%
D=(2RL+PSP)/3
E=(Log10GDP-2)/2.60206
USD 100
USD 40 000
0%
100%
I=(100-C)/100
III.2.3 Aggregations
In the logic of the HDI, the normalized elementary indicators can be aggregated in
also definite more synthetic indicators on the interval [0,1] with the help of algebraic
combinations more or less complex. The combination can operate itself in one only
stage (average of the elementary indicators) or in several stages forming one
arborescent hierarchy of indications in cascade that is more and more synthetic until
to succeed to the final indication (in the case of the HDI, two variables define the
indication of education who is regrouped then with two other elementary indications:
the hierarchy includes therefore three levels of aggregation). The formulas of
aggregation are very numerous, the average algebraic weighted being only a
17
particular case of an a lot vast family (Chakravarty, 2003). We will proceed here by a
simple arithmetic average of the indications composing the HDIA.
III.2.4 mathematical Formulas
The HDIA is worth
HDIA = (A + D + E + I)/ 4
Where TO, D, E, I is respectively the indications of longevity, level of education,
standard of living and of professional insertion of the active population.
Feature of the HDIA
An efficient indicator must answer several criteria, so the HDIA is:
-
robust, reliable, precise and therefore specific ;
-
comprehensible and usable by all actors : The protocol of the HDIA is simple
and applicable in the time, hour by hour, of year in year;
-
applicable in relation to the objective of measure of development of the
countries of Africa concerned;
-
acceptable cost in relation to the service that he/it returns;
-
it has a temporality (the year).
III.2.5 Measure of the development
Leaning on the principles of the HDI, one considèrera a country whose HDIA is raised
(HDIA >= 0.9) as developed, a country whose HDIA is middle (0.5 <= HDIA <=0.8)
some development, and a country with a weak HDIA (HDIA <0.5), in way of
development.
III.3 Simulation of the HDIA and comparison with the HDI
III.3.1 Sources of the data
The data that we will use for the simulation come of the World Bank
(World Development Indicators) and of the world Statistics of the year 2009 where
we have extracts the data of the year 2007.
Considering the big number of missing data, we will make the simulation of the HDIA
for some African countries.
III.3.2.Simulations, Discussions and comparisons
The results of the simulation appear in the picture 4, we are going to compare to the
HDI provided by the UNDP in 2007:
18
Figure 4; Results of simulation
Countries
A
D
E
I
HDIA
HDI
Algeria
0.779
0.705
0.711
0.871
0.766
0.754
Botswana
0.166
0.746
0.804
0.925
0.660
0.694
Burkina Faso
0.391
0.228
0.417
0.23
0.316
0.389
Cameroon
0.351
0.638
0.523
0.7
0.553
0.523
Ghana
0.541
0.538
0.536
0.89
0.626
0.526
Lesotho
0.169
0.741
0.585
0.55
0.511
0.514
Mali
0.394
0.230
0.390
0.7
0.428
0.371
Mauritania
0.478
0.471
0.519
0.7
0.542
0.520
Mauricio
0.800
0.793
0.809
0.898
0.825
0.804
Senegal
0.524
0.394
0.482
0.52
0.480
0.464
South Africa
0.378
0.784
0.786
0.783
0.683
0.683
Tunisia
0.808
0.733
0.739
0.853
0.783
0.769
Source: Our construction
One can notice thus that Burkina sees its HDIA falling in relation to the HDI, because
the HDIA takes in account the rate of professional insertion that there is very weak
(23% because the widened unemployment rate6 is raised there very 77%). otherwise
Tunisia sees its HDIA to increase slightly because of his/her/its indication of elevated
professional insertion (0.853). To the Lesotho, the HDIA is weaker than the HDI.
Indeed, for this country, the hold in account of the indication of insertion is
fundamental here, since one can note that the indication measuring the education is
raised (0.741) proof that by the country is given to assure the efforts of schooling of
the population. Paradoxically the indication of professional insertion (0.55) is not
worthy of the one of the education, therefore of the efforts remained to make in the
reduction of the unemployment and this in order to insert the population in the world
of the employment. To Cameroon, the HDIA increases in relation to the HDI. Here
one notes again that the hold in account of the indication its importance shows
insertion, can that the indication of longevity is weak (0.351); so if Cameroon
improves the quality of the sanitary care and as well as their accessibility, all some its
indication of insertion on its tendency (to the rise), its development won't be able to
that to improve. It will be able to be made while increasing the number of physicians
for example by inhabitants.
6
Unemployed person BIT and discouraged unemployed person
19
One notes therefore that the HDIA improves the measure of the development quality
some Africa while making a state of place more realistic of the level of development
of the African countries, and while offering an idea of the concrete efforts to provide
to improve this level of development.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
To the term of our work where he/it was question to construct a new indicator of
development for Africa, we first of all presented the situation of coins - development
of Africa, then we made a magazine of the literature on the indicators of
development exists where we especially interested ourselves in the GDP by head and
to the HDI since the development of a country passes by the good to be and the
human development of his/her/its population. Finally hence of the limits of the HDI,
we exerted to remedy to an aspect that had not been taken explicitly in account by
the HDI, it is about the insertion of the active population in the world of the
employment, calculated from the rate of unemployment, more the rate of
unemployment is weak, more the indication of professional insertion is raised.
We adopted the methodology of the HDI to know, the normalization of the
indications, composing the indicator and their aggregation by a simple arithmetic
average. The simulation of the HDIA with some countries Africans and their
comparisons with the HDI, has permitted us to see that the countries having a strong
HDIA have an elevated insertion indication and the countries having a weak HDIA
has a weak insertion indication (that means a strong rate of unemployment
widened). While comparing the HDI and the HDIA, we noted that the HDI
overvalued the level of development in some countries, whereas when one takes in
consideration the level of professional insertion (thanks to the HDIA) one realizes
that the level of development is weaker in the countries presenting a strong rate of
unemployment and by consequent a weak insertion level even though they have an
elevated education level.
Considering these results, strength is to note that a lot of efforts remained to make
by the countries Africans in order to come out of the under development. It is
between other about the reduction of unemployment and this in order to insert the
population in the world of the employment. One politics of development would
consist therefore in combining a good level of schooling with a weak level of
unemployment, in other words with a level of elevated professional insertion.
Because it is thanks to an use that the populations can have an income that allows
them to improve their standard of living, it is also while exercising an activity that
one can contribute to the development of its country by a growth of wealth. So the
African countries must develop the sector of agriculture that not only is a sector
notably using a lot of hand of work, but a sector carrier of the development, one
would be able to as to think about the industrial sector.
However, our indicator, the HDIA is far from being perfected. It presents some limits.
Indeed it conserves most limits made on the HDI, but she/it has the merit to take in
account a dimension that had not been underlined by the promoters of the HDI. But
so that that indicatory is reliable, it would be necessary to assure the one of all
his/her/its constituent elements and in particular the one of the valued
unemployment rate in our country Africans.
20
Bibliography
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