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Tor 03.02.2012 Multiple Choice Week Six 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. C C A B B 6. C 7. A 8. B 9. D 10. C 11. A 12. C 13. C 14. B 15. D Kazakhstan - will its economic boom last? (a) Monetary policy involves changing the interest rate and/or money supply in order to change the level of aggregate demand in the economy. Slack monetary policy tends to be used to get the economy out of recession. (b) (i) 2002 (ii) Between 2002 and 2006, unemployment rate fell whilst inflation rate increased, showing an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation, except for in 2004, where inflation decelerated. Initially, the unemployment rate was higher than the inflation rate, however this changed in 2005. Figure 1 suggests that the rate inflation changes more rapidly than that of unemployment. (c) Keynesians believe inflation occurs when there is an increase of aggregate demand within an economy operating at, or close to, full capacity. Therefore in order to reduce inflation, an economy must increase its spare capacity or productivity. To do this, they may use a supply side policy such as training. A better trained or educated work force will increase spare capacity, shifting the Long Run Aggregate Supply (LRAS) curve to the right, from LRAS1 to LRAS2. This will then reduce inflationary pressure because firms will respond to a rise in aggregate demand from AD1 to AD2 by increasing output rather than raising price, if they have spare capacity to do so. Tor 03.02.2012 (d) (i) Cyclical unemployment is caused by a downturn in the trade cycle. Cyclical unemployment tends to rise during a recession, and is caused by falling aggregate demand. (ii) Whilst some industries, such as construction, are expanding, others - such as agriculture - are declining. This unemployment caused by a decline in the agricultural industry is known as structural unemployment. (iii) The government can calculate unemployment through claimant count. This involves counting the number of people in receipt of Job Seekers’ Allowance (JSA). (e) Investment is a component of aggregate demand; therefore an increase in investment will lead to an increase in AD. This will shift the AD curve from AD1 to AD2. Investment can also increase aggregate supply, as investment may include the purchasing of capital, a factor of production, which will increase the productive capacity of a firm or economy, therefore shifting the LRAS curve to the right, from LRAS1 to LRAS2. This increase in both LRAS and AD will cause a rise in real GDP from NY1 to NY2, therefore increase employment as more factors of production are being utilised, and labour is a factor of production. Provided the increase in aggregate supply is equal to or greater than the increase in aggregate demand, average price level will remain the same, at P1. The effect of an investment will depend on the original position of the AD curve, and the size of the increase. A large increase will cause the curve to shift further, thus increase real GDP more, than a small increase in investment, which would only cause a small rise in real GDP. (f) (i) $15bn + $24bn = $39bn (ii) Protectionism involves barriers between economies which wish to trade, for example tariffs, whereas free trade does not restrict the trading with other countries, and there are no tariffs. Tor 03.02.2012 (iii) Removing the tariffs imposed on imports would reduce the domestic price of imports. Cheaper imports would increase demand for imports, therefore consumer expenditure on imports would increase. This would mean import expenditure would become much greater than export income, creating or increasing a current account deficit, which means a worse trade balance. However, the effect on the current account balance of removing import tariffs would depend on the initial tariffs. If initially tariffs were low, their removal would not cause as large an increase in import expenditure than if it were large tariffs being removed. Furthermore, a current account deficit would only be caused if not all other countries removed tariffs. If other countries were removing tariffs, too, export income would also increase, which would not worsen the trade balance. Finally, the effect of a change in price of imports depends on the price elasticity of demand of the imports. More price elastic imports are likely to experience a larger rise in demand than price inelastic imports. (g) Government spending is a component of aggregate demand, the total amount of expenditure within the economy at a given average price level over a given period of time. Economic growth occurs when the productive capacity of the economy increases over time. Keynesians believe an increase in AD from AD1 to AD2 will cause an increase in real GDP from NY1 to NY2, provided firms have spare capacity. LRAS Average Price Level AP1 AD1 NY1 AD2 NY2 Y/Fe Real GDP Increasing government spending would be running an expansionary fiscal policy. An increase in government spending causes an increase in aggregate demand. This may be because of a multiplier effect. If an increase in government spending on, for example education, provides more jobs, there will be less unemployment. This means that more people have disposable income to spend on goods and services. Disposable income is gross income minus deductions, such as direct taxation, pension contributions and other fixed outgoings, such as school fees and mortgage repayments. This increase in disposable income therefore increases aggregate demand. Furthermore, increased government spending could increase consumers’ disposable Tor 03.02.2012 income for those in receipt of benefits such as Job Seekers’ Allowance of public pensions, such as teachers’ pensions. In addition, an increase in government spending can increase aggregate supply because it can increase the productive capacity of an economy, for example providing education can increase the productivity of labour. An increase in the quality of factors of production would shift the LRAS curve to the right, increasing real GDP from NY1 to NY2. However, the extent to which an increase in government spending will promote economic growth depends on the level of spare capacity within the economy. Keynesians believe firms will only respond to an increase in aggregate demand by increasing production if they have spare capacity. Firms operating at, or close to, spare capacity will respond to the increase by raising their average price level, causing demand pull inflation. Additionally, the effect would depend on what the government has spent its money on. An increase in government spending on weapons would have little effect on the aggregate demand, but an increase in benefit expenditure is likely to increase aggregate demand more, and an increase in spending on education will benefit aggregate supply in the long run, creating sustainable economic growth. Moreover, it would depend on how the government funded their extra spending. If it was funded by increasing taxes, it is likely that the impacts would be counter balanced by the impacts of raising taxes, for example consumers’ disposable income would decrease, and therefore the increased government spending would not be effective in promoting economic growth. Finally, there would be a time lag before an increase in government spending had an effect on the economy, as people would not respond to the increase immediately, and educational improvements would have no effect on economic growth until the students were old enough to be part of the work force.