Download Step Ahead Study - Lewes District Council

An Analysis of Business Growth
Potential in Lewes District
On behalf of:
Lewes District Council
by
Step Ahead Research
Greenacre Court
Station Road
Burgess Hill
West Sussex RH15 9DS
Tel No. 01444 259185
790 Innovation Buildings
Sittingbourne Research Centre
Sittingbourne
Kent ME9 8HL
Tel No. 01795 438827
Suite 7, Third Floor
Adamson House
65 Westgate Road
Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 1SG
Tel No. 0191 2612453
An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
1.
Executive Summary
1.1.1
The report presents an analysis of economic and business forecasts and
trends in the Lewes district undertaken by Step Ahead Research. The study
was commissioned by Lewes District Council to gain a better understanding
of the likely demand for employment land space and to develop possible
scenarios of future business needs to inform the Local Development
Framework.
1.1.2
This study uses the methodology in guidance produced by the Office of the
Deputy Prime Minister to inform employment land reviews. The study derives
demand for floorspace by translating employment forecasts from the Sussex
Economy Forecasting Model to floorspace requirements using floorspace per
employee ratios. A series of interviews with informed stakeholders were
undertaken to test these findings and to provide local context. We also
undertook desk research and an analysis of the key drivers and dynamics of
the district’s economy.
1.2
The Dynamics of the Lewes District Economy
1.2.1
The Lewes district economy is relatively dependent upon public sector and
manufacturing employment and has a weak financial and business services
sector, but its close proximity to Brighton & Hove and the two universities and
its high quality rural environment present opportunities for it to broaden its
economic base. The rural parts of the district have undergone major changes
as agricultural employment has contracted and been replaced by a growth in
remote home working and rural tourism, whilst the three major employment
centres of Lewes town, Newhaven and Seaford, have experienced differing
fortunes since the mid-1990s.
1.2.2
Of the three main employment centres, Lewes town is the most affluent and
accounts for nearly half the district’s employment. The high level of public
sector employment in the town has protected it from losses in traditional
manufacturing and its strong cultural heritage has attracted high earning
residents, which has expanded the growth in the retail and hospitality sectors.
If the County Council chose to relocate to another part of the County, this may
have a significant negative impact on the town, particularly as the business
services sector is under-developed.
1.2.3
Newhaven, which is relatively dependent upon traditional manufacturing
employment, has suffered significant job losses and has not shared in the
economic prosperity of recent years. The town has a weak retail offer, little
business services employment and has yet to capitalise fully on its port side
location. Deprivation in Newhaven is relatively high, making disposable
incomes low compared to other parts of the district and compared to Lewes
town, the educational profile of Newhaven does not suggest that it has a high
skilled workforce. Recent quayside developments and initiatives such as the
Enterprise Gateway suggest that Newhaven may be beginning to broaden its
appeal and develop a stronger economic profile.
1.2.4
Stakeholders suggest Seaford is a close-knit town, which relies on local retail
and a high proportion of health and education employment that supports an
older population. It is not seen by stakeholders to be economically dynamic
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
and whilst it continues to be fairly inward looking the business community is
likely to be mainly made up of companies providing intermediate services to
local markets. It does not have a strong visitor economy and there is little in
the way of incoming businesses to the town.
1.2.5
The rural parts of the district have undergone sustained restructuring, as
agricultural businesses have had to diversify and the sector has become a
less important source of local employment. The rural economy in Lewes
district benefits from the high quality physical environment in the district and
the role of agricultural businesses has changed to become custodians of the
countryside, building on the growth in rural tourism. Changes in technology
have also facilitated the development of remote working, which has allowed
people in rural areas to work from home, providing services to people
electronically.
1.3
Forecast Demand for Business Space
1.3.1
The quality of the employment sites and the existing business stock is not fit
for purpose and this may have suppressed the growth in financial and
business services businesses in the district. Stakeholders reported
unoccupied employment sites and high levels of empty units in different parts
of the district, but there was a widely held view that there was pent up local
demand for small, high quality business units. Business growth in the district
is unlikely to come from large inward investors, but instead from the ability to
make the most of the district’s existing assets and growing local businesses.
Only 2% of all commercial property development in Sussex between 1987
and 2002 was in the Lewes district1, which means that much of the stock is
ageing and unsuitable to meet the needs of modern businesses.
1.3.2
Forecast employment data shows that growth in the service sector is likely to
continue with a reduced demand for B2 (general industrial) and B8 (storage
and distribution) floorspace. Overall demand for floorspace is forecast to be
negative, mainly as a result of falls in manufacturing employment, which
require a large amount of floorspace. Employment forecast data estimates
that demand for B1 (office and light industrial use) accommodation is likely to
be slightly positive. Stakeholders report that demand is mainly for office
space, particularly for smaller units and move-on accommodation and mainly
for Lewes town, which reflects its strength as an employment centre and for
Newhaven, as a result of its space and potential for development.
1.4
Future Development Options
1.4.1
The success of the local economy is likely to depend on how it manages to
diversify away from the public sector and traditional manufacturing
employment and its success in retaining and attracting modern outwardlooking businesses that provide higher skilled jobs and additional local
income. There may also be a need to address the economic imbalances
within the district, so that the skills base and the urban environment in the
poorer areas make them more attractive to a different mix of residents,
businesses and visitors. Five development options are presented in this
1
Room to Grow – SEER Consulting – 2002.
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
report, they are not mutually exclusive and different ones may be more
appropriate to some sub-areas than others.
1.4.2
Option 1.
Do Nothing
No action is taken and the development of the district would be left to the
market. Based on recent economic changes and future forecasts, this may
mean that there is further polarisation of the local economy, with Lewes town
and the rural areas continuing to benefit and the coastal towns struggling to
adapt to changing economic circumstances.
1.4.3
Option 2.
Developing a High Quality Visitor Economy
There is significant potential to develop and promote the towns in the district
as high quality tourist destinations to longer stay visitors if the South Downs
becomes a National Park.
1.4.4
Option 3.
Re-Balancing the Benefits of Public Sector Employment
Public sector employment is not distributed evenly, which has contributed to
the unbalanced economy within the district. A more equitable distribution of
public sector employment could help to generate more employment
opportunities in its less affluent areas and act as a catalyst to further business
development in the areas that need it most.
1.4.5
Option 4.
Upgrading Existing Accommodation to Support and Attract
New, High Growth Businesses
Stakeholders suggest that there is pent-up demand from small and growing
businesses, which is suppressed because the existing accommodation stock
is unsuitable to meet their requirements. The district will fail to capitalise on
the potential benefits of these companies who will move to other areas, if it
does not create a range of high quality commercial premises and move-on
accommodation.
1.4.6
Option 5.
Attracting High Spending Residents
Continuing the development of high quality residential accommodation could
begin to regenerate Newhaven town centre. High spending residents may
support and develop local amenities as they emerge, which could also
support the town’s development as a visitor destination.
1.4.7
The district should take a multi-layered approach to future business growth
and development. This means capitalising on its physical environment, having
a co-ordinated and strategic approach to developing the visitor economy;
identifying ways to expand the financial and business services and advanced
engineering sectors and improving the quality of business accommodation.
Maintaining existing employment sites will improve opportunities to expand
the business base in the future, so long as creative solutions are identified to
bring derelict sites back into use and there is sufficient flexibility to allow their
Use Class allocations to reflect the changing profile of local businesses.
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
Contents
1. Executive Summary .................................................................................. 1
2. Introduction................................................................................................... 5
2.2
2.3
2.4
Policy Context................................................................................................ 5
Methodology .................................................................................................. 6
Structure of the Report .................................................................................. 8
3. The Dynamics of the Lewes District Economy .............................. 10
3.2
Employment Change in the Lewes District 1990-2005 ................................. 11
3.3
Key Sectors ................................................................................................. 12
3.4
Start-Ups and Self-Employment................................................................... 13
3.5
“Knowledge Employment” ............................................................................ 13
3.6
Job Losses and Diversification .................................................................... 14
3.7
The Dynamics of the Sub-Areas .................................................................. 15
3.8
Commuting .................................................................................................. 18
3.9
Employment Forecasts – 2005 - 2010 ......................................................... 19
4. Forecast Demand for Business Space ............................................ 21
4.2
Demand for Employment Floorspace ........................................................... 21
4.3
Low Rental Values and a Localised Property Market ................................... 22
4.4
The Likely Nature of Demand ...................................................................... 23
4.5
Summary of Findings ................................................................................... 25
5. Development Scenarios ........................................................................ 26
5.2
Option 1. Do Nothing ................................................................................... 26
5.3
Option 2. Developing a High Quality Visitor Economy .................................. 27
5.4
Option 3. Re-Balancing the Benefits of Public Sector Employment .............. 27
5.5
Option 4. Upgrading Existing Accommodation to Support and Attract New,
High Growth Businesses.............................................................................. 28
5.6
Option 5. Attracting High Spending Residents ............................................. 28
6. Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................ 30
Annex
......................................................................................................... 32
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
2.
Introduction
2.1.1
In early 2005, Step Ahead Research was commissioned by Lewes District
Council to undertake an analysis of economic and business forecasts and
trends in the Lewes district in order to gain a better understanding of the likely
demand for future employment land space and to develop possible scenarios
of future business needs in the district. The findings of this research will be
used to inform the Local Development Framework and underpin the strategy
being developed at present by Lewes District Council.
2.1.2
The Local Development Framework (LDF) will provide a spatial dimension to
other local strategies and programmes, such as the Economic Development
and Community Strategies and will complement the South East England
Regional Assembly’s (SEERA) Regional Spatial Strategy and South East
England Development Agency’s (SEEDA) Regional Economic Strategy. The
LDF will streamline the local planning process and promote a proactive,
positive approach to managing development, which will enable Lewes District
Council to respond to changing local circumstances and ensure that spatial
plans are prepared and reviewed more quickly than development plans under
the old planning system.
2.1.3
There is considerable pressure for employment land sites to be converted to
other uses within the Lewes district, but there is a need for a greater
understanding of the dynamics of the local economy. Both residential and
commercial development in Lewes is restricted by its topology, surrounded as
it is by the sea to the south and the South Downs running through the middle.
The re-designation of the South Downs as a National Park may further restrict
development. Furthermore, the high value of land for residential use,
compared with commercial use, acts as a major incentive for individual site
owners and developers to pursue housing opportunities unless the
development plan clearly states otherwise.
2.1.4
In many cases planning proposals have been for otherwise vacant or
degraded employment land. Although the reallocation of this land would result
in potentially cleaning up and improving areas, if a substantial proportion of
employment use land is reallocated to residential use, there will be a declining
number of sites for businesses to locate to. This may mean that the district
fails to retain expanding businesses and that future inward investment
opportunities are missed. Once land has been reallocated into residential
property it is unlikely to be converted back to business use.
2.2
Policy Context
2.2.1
Regional development in the South East is guided by the South East England
Development Agency’s (SEEDA) Regional Economic Strategy, which sets a
vision of a “prosperous region delivering a high quality of life and environment
for everyone, now and in the future”.2 It calls for a sophisticated approach
that recognises the differing needs and opportunities of different parts of the
region and sectors of the economy, but most importantly growth that is
sustainable. Sustainable growth involves creating competitive businesses
2
SEEDA – Regional Economic Strategy – 2002-2012.
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
and successful people, developing communities that are vibrant and
supported by effective infrastructure and using the region’s natural resources
efficiently.
2.2.2
Within this context the South East’s Regional Spatial Strategy, The South
East Plan is currently out for consultation and will provide a statutory regional
framework for sustainable development until 2026 for local authorities in the
region. The document will guide how the future business premises needs in
the Lewes district are met and how space is prioritised.
2.2.3
The Government’s definition of sustainable development includes the
requirement to maintain high and stable levels of economic growth and
employment. The regional policy for sustainable development and use of
employment land is covered by policy RE1 described in the box below.
“Local development documents will allocate employment land to…meet the needs of new
business start-ups, growing businesses and inward investors based upon a set of criteria:








Locations that minimise commuting and where the maximum use of public transport
can be made
Locations which intensify the use of existing sites
Prioritisation of previously developed land
Focus on urban areas
Promotion of mixed use development
Locations which promote more sustainable communities
Locations which promote a closer relationship between jobs and existing and
proposed labour supply
Locations which minimise loss or damage to environmental capital”
Policy RE1: Sustainable Economic Development
The South East Plan, Draft for Public Consultation, January 2005, Section D2
2.2.4
The draft plan encourages local authorities to carefully examine the needs of
their local economy and to make provision for employment land that meets
the needs of the current and future business base and workforce (both in
terms of quantity and quality). Both factors are important for the Lewes
district. First, there is pressure for residential development on employment
sites, which should not compromise the future needs of the local economy.
Second, stakeholders who we spoke to for this project report that the quality
of existing premises in the district is affecting business growth and retention
and there is not enough quality office stock to attract high growth service
sector companies. Data analysis in this study shows that the current stock is
restraining the local economy’s growth potential and that this needs to be
addressed in the Local Development Framework so that the economy is able
to diversify and benefit from the region’s fastest growing sectors.
2.3
Methodology
2.3.1
The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM) produced guidance to inform
work on employment land reviews – Employment Land Review: Guidance
Notes – December 2004. To model the demand for employment floorspace
the guidance outlines three commonly used methodologies:
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
a) Sectoral economic and employment forecasts and projections
(labour demand techniques)
b) Demographically derived assessments of future employment needs
(labour supply techniques)
c) Analysis based on the past take-up of employment land and property and/or
future property market requirements.
2.3.2
Step Ahead Research and Lewes District Council agreed that of the three
approaches, the Labour Demand approach outlined above was the most
appropriate for the analysis of B1, B2 and B8 employment land demand in the
district for the following reasons:

Analysing the past take-up of employment land was not possible, because a
comprehensive database of this information does not exist;

The labour supply approach, based on population projections, is not as
appropriate to the Lewes district as it might be to other areas because of the
high levels of commuting to and from the district and because migration rates
are likely to be constrained by house building rates;

The data sources to carry out the Labour Demand method are readily
available.
2.3.3
While this approach is valuable, using forecast data means that the following
limitations should be taken into consideration:

They are to some extent reliant on historic data and are less useful in dealing
with new and emerging sectors, such as Digital Media;

They are dependent on generic ratios to translate these forecasts (in terms of
employment) into land and property requirements;

They are most useful when dealing with sectors like manufacturing or
financial services, where the sector is substantial and has reasonably
homogenous property requirements in terms of location and types of
building.
2.3.4
The ODPM, therefore, cautions against an over-reliance on quantitative
approaches to local employment land use requirements and recommends
that the adopted approach is “supplemented by consultation with informed
stakeholders, studies of key and emerging business sectors and by the
monitoring and analysis of published business, economic and employment
statistics”3. This ensures that the data is fully tested and set within an
informed local context.
2.3.5
The demand for floorspace has been derived from translating employment
forecasts from the Sussex Economy Forecasting Model to floorspace
requirements using floorspace per employee ratios designed by Roger Tym
and Partners and Arup Economics, both of which are used as examples in the
ODPM Employment Land Review Guidance Note 2004. These estimates of
floorspace requirements have been used in conjunction with a review of other
3
ODPM – Employment Land Use – Guidance Note – December 2004.
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
economic and business reports relating to the Lewes district, analysis of
national datasets and interviews with a series of informed stakeholders.
2.3.6






2.3.7






2.3.8










Other studies that have been used to inform this report include:
Vail Williams report on land use in East Sussex and the District
The State of East Sussex Economy report
Sussex Enterprise Annual Business Survey information
Sussex Enterprise Annual Economic Review
The retail audit currently commissioned by Lewes District Council
East Sussex Area Investment Framework documents
National and local datasets that have been analysed include:
Annual Business Inquiry,
Local Area Labour Force Survey,
VAT registrations, de-registrations and survival rates,
2001 Census,
Sussex Economy Forecasting Model and
Population data from the Office for National Statistics.
Eleven face-to-face and telephone interviews were conducted with informed
local stakeholders. The interviewees were nominated by Lewes District
Council for their knowledge of business dynamics in the Lewes district and
included representatives from:
Lewes District Council
East Sussex Economic Partnership
Locate East Sussex
Action in Rural Sussex
The Sussex Innovation Centre
The Investor Development Manager for East Sussex
Newhaven Chamber of Commerce
Seaford Chamber of Commerce
Enterprise Works, Newhaven
The Newhaven Enterprise Gateway
2.3.9
Lewes District Council also held four Local Development Framework
workshops for a range of local stakeholders, including local employers,
planners, employers’ representatives; learning providers and Parish and
Town Councillors. Each of these workshops had a discussion group on the
Economy and Learning and Skills.
2.4
Structure of the Report
2.4.1
The remainder of this report is structured as follows:

Section 3 explores the dynamics of the Lewes district economy.

Section 4 uses the ODPM method to estimate future demand for employment
land space.
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District

Section 5 explores the possibilities for developing the district using a range of
scenarios.

Section 6 outlines the main conclusions and recommendations from the
report and explores future options for supporting the local economy.
2.4.2
Where the study refers to the whole district it will be referred to as “Lewes
district”, when discussing the sub-area of Lewes it will be termed “Lewes
town”.
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
3.
The Dynamics of the Lewes District Economy
3.1.1
The geography and economy of the Lewes district is diverse. The district
covers a strip between the coastal urban areas of Newhaven, Seaford and
Peacehaven, Telscombe and East Saltdean, through the South Downs Area
of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) and the County town of Lewes, to the
rural villages in the north of the district. While situated within the county of
East Sussex, Lewes district borders Sussex’s high growth central corridor
from Mid-Sussex to Brighton & Hove, which influences employment patterns
and the dynamics of the economy.
3.1.2
As is the case with all areas, the Lewes district economy is affected by
international, national and regional trends and many of the changes that have
occurred in the district are not peculiar to the local area. Traditional
manufacturing and agricultural employment have continued to contract as a
result of technological change and global trends to locate businesses to parts
of the world where labour and land costs are cheaper. Companies
increasingly have to compete on quality, rather than cost and to be outward
looking to identify new markets if they are to expand and grow. These
changes are driving the demand for higher-level skills across the workforce,
whilst the shift from production industries to the service sector has changed
the nature of skills that are required to compete effectively in the workplace.
At lower and intermediate levels of the labour market, it is increasingly
communication skills and customer service skills that are in demand, rather
than the manual dexterity skills that are more closely associated with
employment in the production industries.
3.1.3
In the UK, income distributions have widened both at a spatial level and
between households within local areas.4 In desirable areas, such as Lewes
town, property prices have been driven upwards by in-migration from higher
earning households and people with high disposable incomes now support a
growing number of quality bars and restaurants and a service sector that has
successfully offset the loss of manufacturing employment in the town.
3.1.4
In other parts of the district economic changes have had a less favourable
impact. Low levels of skills amongst the workforce, poor educational
attainment, higher levels of unemployment and less success in attracting new
businesses into Newhaven have meant that lower household incomes have
been unable to support the growth of service sector businesses to
compensate for the contracting manufacturing employment.
3.1.5
The rural parts of the district have undergone sustained restructuring, as
agricultural businesses have had to diversify and the sector has become a
less important source of local employment. The rural economy in Lewes
district benefits from the high quality physical environment in the district and
the role of agricultural businesses has changed to become custodians of the
countryside, building on the growth in rural tourism. Changes in technology
have also facilitated the development of remote working, which has allowed
people in rural areas to work from home, providing services to people
electronically.
4
Hills, John (2004), Inequality and The State, Oxford University Press.
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3.2
Employment Change in the Lewes District 1990-2005
3.2.1
The Lewes district has a population of 92,200 and has a demographic profile
that is older than that of England & Wales, though this is less marked than in
other East Sussex districts. Just under one quarter (23%) of the population of
Lewes district in 2001 was aged 65 or over, with older people likely to live in
the sub area of Seaford and rural areas than other parts of the district. This
compares to 16% of the population aged over 65 nationally. The large older
population has a major impact on the structure of the local labour market and
the dynamics of the Lewes district economy with economic activity rates lower
in the Lewes district than in the South East or nationally.
3.2.2
Lewes district has a low proportion of 20-44 year olds (28%) compared with
England and Wales (35%). This group of the population is generally
considered to be the most economically dynamic and innovative of all
population groups and is likely to be the group that embraces and applies
new technologies most effectively.5 A low proportion of residents in this age
group may have an inhibitive effect on economic growth and influence the
types of businesses and employment most prominent in the district.
3.2.3
Table 1 below shows the changes in the structure of employment within
Lewes district between 1990 and 2005.
Table 1: Employment Structure in Lewes District – 1990 - 20056
1990
Count
%
Agriculture, Mining and Utilities
1700
Metals, Minerals & Chemicals
900
2005
Location
Quotient Count
%
1.2
3.6
1100
0.5
1.9
1000
1990-2005 Change
Location
Quotient Count
%
1.3
-500
2.3
0.9
200
2.1
-31.3
21.1
Engineering
1200
2.7
0.6
2100
4.2
1.2
800
65.6
Other Manufacturing
3700
8.2
1.2
3000
6.0
1.1
-800
-21.6
Construction
2800
6.1
0.9
5500
11.4
1.9
2800
100.8
Distribution, Hotels & Catering
8100
17.9
1.0
7500
15.4
0.8
-600
-7.5
Transport & Communication
1600
3.4
0.7
1800
3.7
0.7
200
15.0
Financial & Business Services
4100
9.0
0.7
4400
9.1
0.5
300
7.7
Other (mainly public) Services
TOTAL
14000
37900
30.7
1.4
1.0
15100
41500
31.0
1.2
1.0
1100
3500
8.2
9.4
100.0
100.1
Source: Sussex Economy Forecasting Model 2003 Experian/Business Strategies.
NB: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
3.2.4
There were over 3,500 more jobs in the district in 2005 than there were in
1990. Employment growth over the period was marginally faster than in the
South East region and in the United Kingdom and occurred in most sectors.
However, the position is dependent on two sectors and excluding growth in
public sector employment and employment changes in the construction
industry, employment growth between 1990 and 2005 would have been
negative. Public sector employment is dependent on Government policy,
and employment in the construction industry depends on the strength of the
5
The State of the East Sussex Economy, SEER Consulting, 2004.
Location Quotients indicate the relative strength of the sector in the district. An LQ of more than 1
signifies that the district has a higher concentration of employment in the sector relative to the UK as a
whole. An LQ of less than 1 indicates that the district has a lower concentration than the UK as a whole.
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
property market and although based in the district, workers are likely to be
contracted to work in other areas of the region. This leaves the district
dependent on two sectors to provide employment growth, both of which could
be vulnerable and this highlights the need to diversify the economic base.
3.3
Key Sectors
3.3.1
Table 1 illustrates the dependence that Lewes district has on the public sector
to generate new employment opportunities, but also its dependence on
employment in the public sector overall. The district also relies on the public
sector for economic output, nearly one third of Lewes district’s economic
output (30%) comes from the public sector compared to just one fifth (22%)
nationally. Nearly one in three jobs in the district are in the public sector –
nearly 3,000 more jobs than could be expected.
3.3.2
The location quotient shows the proportion of employment in the Lewes
district relative to that in the United Kingdom. In 1990, Lewes district had a
higher proportion of employment than the United Kingdom in the following
sectors:



Agriculture, mining and utilities
Other manufacturing
Other (mainly public services)
3.3.3
Both agricultural employment and other manufacturing employment have both
been vulnerable to wider economic restructuring, whilst public sector
employment can be highly dependent upon Government policy and is
generally outside the control of local people. The structure of the Lewes
district economy in 1990 has made it more vulnerable to changes in the wider
economy than many other areas, with job losses most likely to occur in
sectors where Lewes district has had a disproportionate share of employment
and job gains being most likely to occur where the district has a lower share
of employment. These changes have been most felt in Newhaven and
Seaford, where the financial and business services sector is particularly
weak. Lewes town, on the other hand, has benefited from being a County
town and having a high proportion of public sector employment at the County
Council headquarters, Sussex Police headquarters and the County courts.
3.3.4
The strongest employment growth sectors have been in transport and
communication (+15%); engineering (+66%) and in construction (+101%).
Whilst the growth in construction employment has been stronger locally than
nationally, this sector is notoriously cyclical. The increase in employment in
this sector has been largely driven by the buoyant housing market. This rate
of growth is not likely to be sustainable over the longer term and, depending
on the fortunes of the property market, could be more vulnerable to a severe
correction than many other sectors. The growth in construction employment
in the late 1980s was short-lived and employment gains were soon lost when
the national economy went into recession in the early 1990s. Much of the
future success of this sector might depend on the district’s capacity to bring
forward the development of key sites and to secure local contractors.
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
3.4
Start-Ups and Self-Employment
3.4.1
The sectors that are concentrated in the district are less dynamic and tend to
make up a lower proportion of new businesses. This may partially explain
why the business start-up rate in the Lewes district (32.5%) is lower than in
Sussex (36.0%) and the South East (37.9%)7. Other factors contributing to a
lower start-up rate include the older population profile and that many of the
district’s “start-ups” are likely to be self-employed or free-lancers and
therefore may not be captured by VAT start up data. The threshold for VAT
registration is a turnover greater than £56,000.
3.4.2
There are a greater proportion of self-employed people in Lewes district than
the South East (18% compared to 14% of the economically active
population). Freelancers tend to be slightly older, well educated and
experienced. The population profile of the district reflects these qualities; the
district has a good quality of life and is within easy commuting distance to
London and Brighton & Hove. Over 4 in 10 of self-employed people in the
Lewes district are in managerial or professional occupations, compared to 3
in 10 in the South East, which suggests that a large proportion of selfemployed individuals are high skilled.8 These are more likely to be residents
of Lewes town where a third of the population is qualified to first degree level
or equivalent (Level 4), than Newhaven or Seaford where only 19% and 11%
of residents hold a Level 4 qualification.
3.4.3
High earning free-lancers are likely to have high levels of disposable income
and have been one of the key drivers of the local economy, particularly in
Lewes town, helping to support and grow the service sector. There have
been an increasing number of cafes and restaurants opening to meet the
demands and habits of higher earners and employment in this sector
increased by just over 100% in Lewes town, or nearly 2,000 jobs, between
1995 and 2002.
3.4.4
The hotels and restaurant sector also supports tourism in the district and just
under one fifth (17%) of tourism spending in 2002 in the Lewes district was in
this sector.9 The retail offer in the district is also important to tourism,
particularly antique shops and galleries, and contributes over one fifth to total
tourism revenue (22%). The district’s creative industries, such as Charleston
Farmhouse and the Star Gallery, add to the district’s uniqueness and tourist
offer. Just over one in twenty visitors to the district stay overnight in paying
accommodation and tourism is predominantly from day visitors, or visitors
staying with friends or relatives. Although an unreliable service at present10
the Port at Newhaven provides the district with a gateway to Europe and has
the potential to become more central to the way tourists enter the district,
visitors that have travelled further are more likely to stay overnight. Trying to
increase the proportion of visitors that stay over night in the district would help
to increase the economic impact that tourism has on the local economy.
7
Start-up rate is the number of VAT registrations per 10,000 population.
Census 2001.
9 STEAM data – Provided by Lewes District Council.
10 www.lewestoday.co.uk - Cross Channel Ferry Service Axed.
8
Step Ahead Research
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
3.5
“Knowledge Employment”
3.5.1
Nationally and regionally, most employment growth has been driven by an
expanding financial and business services sector, a trend that is forecast to
continue over the coming years. However, this has not been the case in the
Lewes district where “knowledge businesses” and “knowledge employment”11
are less prevalent than in Sussex as a whole – 31% of businesses in Lewes
district compared to 41% of businesses in Sussex. From a relatively low base
the financial and business service sector has seen below trend growth
compared to all employment in the district and well below the growth in
financial and business services employment nationally. Nationally the
financial and business services contributes one quarter of economic output
(24%), in the Lewes district it is estimated to contribute just over one tenth
(13%). This has been one of the fastest growing sectors and Lewes district
has not been able to benefit from it as much as it might.
3.6
Job Losses and Diversification
3.6.1
There have been a number of job losses in traditional manufacturing between
1990 and 2005, which reflects the general perception that there are a number
of empty industrial units in the district. However, these jobs have been
replaced by growth in higher level engineering occupations, which are likely to
demand different skill-sets from workers and may have different employment
site needs to traditional manufacturing businesses. The growth in
engineering has been more significant in the Lewes district than in the United
Kingdom as a whole and Lewes district now has a higher share of
engineering employment than the UK.
3.6.2
The greatest falls in employment were in agriculture, which now provides less
than 1,000 jobs in the district. Although employment in agriculture has been
declining, the agricultural sector has a vital role in the Lewes district economy
and a direct and indirect role in tourism, maintaining the quality of the
countryside. In recent years the rural economy has diversified with an
increasing amount of rural accommodation, such as bed and breakfasts, and
converted barns for business premises. Employment in rural parts of Lewes
district increased above trend - by a third between 1995-2002 and the role of
the countryside in the local economy is likely to continue to increase, as the
whole district is broadband enabled, creating more opportunity for homeworking from rural locations and the potential for further development of highquality business accommodation.
3.6.3
The future of the Lewes district economy will depend on how effectively it
manages to diversify away from more traditional areas of employment and
whether it is successfully able to broaden its economic base to replace the
lost manufacturing and agriculture jobs. The data shown in table 1 shows
that the district has had some success in doing this, but evidence from
interviewees undertaken for this study suggest that this has not been the case
in all parts of the district.
11
Using the Local Futures definition of “Knowledge companies” – for definition see annex.
Step Ahead Research
14
An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
3.7
The Dynamics of the Sub-Areas
3.7.1
The recent economic experience of each of the sub-areas has been very
different, some sub-areas have felt the decline in manufacturing employment
more keenly than others and some sub-areas have been buoyed by public
sector employment. Table 2 below shows how the patterns of employment
changed in the sub-areas of the Lewes district between 1995 and 2002, and
reflects the different fortunes of the sub-areas.
Table 2: Employment Change in the Lewes District by Sub-area – 1995-200212
1995
Count
2002
%
Count
1995-2002 Change
%
Count
%
LEWES
9,400
36.2
13,500
41.7
4,100
NEWHAVEN
5,600
21.4
5,500
16.8
-100
-2.2
PEACEHAVEN
1,500
5.9
1,700
5.3
200
11.7
SEAFORD
4,000
15.5
4,400
13.7
400
10.0
REST OF LEWES DISTRICT
5,500
21.0
7,300
22.4
1,800
43.8
33.5
Total
26,000
100.0
32,400
100.0
6,400
24.6
Source: Annual Business Survey 1995 (Rescaled Analysis) and the Annual Business Inquiry 2002 ONS via NOMIS.
NB: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
3.7.2
Lewes town has always been the source of the most employment, providing
more than one third (36%) of jobs in the district in 1995. Newhaven (21%) and
the rest of Lewes district (21%) accounted for around two in five jobs.
Seaford and Peacehaven are comparatively small employment centres
providing just 16% and 6% of jobs in the district respectively. Whilst there
was strong overall jobs growth in the district between 1995 and 2002, this
was not shared evenly between sub-areas. From an already strong
employment position, Lewes town strengthened its dominance and by 2002
provided 44% of local employment. Only the rest of Lewes district, which
accounts for most of the rural areas, had above average employment growth.
In Newhaven there was actually a small fall in overall employment, whilst both
Peacehaven and Seaford failed to benefit from growth to the same extent as
Lewes town.
3.7.3
These changes reflect the industrial composition of the sub-areas and
demonstrate the different challenges that exist for different parts of the
district. Table 3 shows the sectoral distribution of employment in each of the
areas within the Lewes district in 1995.
Table 3: Proportion of Employment by Broad Sector in the Sub-areas - 1995
1995 Annual Employment
Survey
LEWES
Proportion of Employment by Sector (%)
Financial
Public
Distribution,
and
Administration,
Hotels &
Transport &
Business
Education &
Other
Manufacturing Construction Restaurants Communications Services
Health
Services
10.8
5.0
18.9
3.2
15.0
41.7
5.4
NEWHAVEN
48.0
1.6
20.1
10.2
4.0
12.4
3.5
PEACEHAVEN
13.8
4.7
25.7
3.6
12.3
35.8
4.0
4.4
3.0
31.5
1.3
9.7
43.6
6.4
17.3
5.6
20.1
2.3
11.2
33.8
8.7
19.3
4.1
21.8
4.2
Source: Annual Employment Survey 1995 – Rescaled Analysis ONS Via NOMIS.
10.8
33.7
5.7
SEAFORD
REST OF LEWES DISTRICT
Total
12
Although 2003 ABI data is available it is not comparable with the AES for wards in the Lewes district.
Step Ahead Research
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
3.7.4
Newhaven was far more dependent upon manufacturing employment than
other parts of the district. Nearly half (48%) of all employment in the town
was in manufacturing. Conversely, the town had a very low proportion of
people employed in financial and business services and public administration,
education and health. The transport sector is more important to Newhaven
than other areas of the district, primarily because of the port, yet it only
provides employment for one in ten people. This very narrow economic base
means that Newhaven has been particularly vulnerable to wider economic
changes and even the port activities have not been able to compensate for
this. During periods of economic change Newhaven has not had the
advantage of being able to fall back on significant public sector employment
in the way that Lewes town, Seaford and the rest of Lewes district have been
able to.
3.7.5
One of the most revealing aspects of the local economy is the low level of
financial and business services overall. In the mid 1990s, Seaford was reliant
upon public sector employment – particularly health and social work activities
- and retail, but had less than 10% of employment in financial and business
services. This lack of business dynamism and the fact that none of the
Lewes district coastal towns have been developed as significant tourist towns
has meant that towns such as Seaford have become dominated by low and
intermediate level businesses, primarily serving local markets.
3.7.6
The 2002 Annual Business Inquiry data in Table 4 shows how the structure of
employment has changed in each of the Lewes district sub-areas and
demonstrates how some parts of the economy have thrived, whilst others
have continued to struggle.
Table 4: Proportion of Employment by Broad Sector in the Sub-areas - 200213
Proportion of Employment by Sector (%)
2002 Annual Business
Inquiry
LEWES
Public
Distribution,
Financial & Administration,
Hotels &
Transport &
Business
Education &
Other
Manufacturing Construction Restaurants Communications Services
Health
Services
6.8
2.0
27.1
3.6
12.6
43.7
4.2
NEWHAVEN
36.9
1.6
26.5
9.2
5.3
16.3
3.8
PEACEHAVEN
11.1
8.3
25.9
3.2
11.3
33.5
6.7
2.7
6.2
27.8
2.8
10.6
41.1
7.0
12.4
11.0
18.0
4.8
13.2
31.0
8.2
12.8
4.9
25.0
4.7
Source: Annual Employment Survey 1995 – Rescaled Analysis ONS Via NOMIS.
11.2
35.4
5.5
SEAFORD
REST OF LEWES DISTRICT
Total
3.7.7
13
The decline in the importance of manufacturing in all parts of the district is
clear, but it is Newhaven that has had to undergo the most significant
readjustment, because of its dependence on employment in the sector. There
were 670 less manufacturing jobs in Newhaven in 2002 than there were in
1995 – three quarters of all the manufacturing job losses in the Lewes district
were lost in Newhaven and because it had such a narrow economic base, it
was not in a position to replace these adequately with service sector
employment. Losses in manufacturing employment have been buoyed by
increases in public sector employment in other sub-areas. Only 16% of
employment in Newhaven is in the public sector, compared to over a third of
employment (35%) in the district as a whole. Distributing public sector
Although 2003 ABI data is available it is not comparable with the AES for wards in the Lewes district.
Step Ahead Research
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
employment more evenly throughout the district’s sub-areas may help the
regeneration and restructuring of Newhaven.
3.7.8
Whilst there were employment gains in Newhaven in public administration,
financial and business services and distribution, hotels and restaurants, the
amount of employment in these sectors was so low in the mid-1990s, the
actual number of new jobs was relatively small. By 2002, manufacturing still
accounted for over one third (37%) of jobs in Newhaven. It seems likely that
the Newhaven economy will need to continue to restructure if it is to develop
and grow in line with the more prosperous parts of the district. Newhaven’s
natural environment could provide an opportunity for its development. The
sub-area benefits from its coastline, historic Fort and is surrounded by the
South Downs.
3.7.9
Lewes town, which already had the largest share of employment in the
district, benefited from having a broader economic base, a strong cultural
heritage, relatively close proximity to London and the two universities in
Brighton & Hove and its position as the County town of East Sussex. Public
services employment continued to be significant to the town, whilst the
popularity of Lewes town as a location for affluent households has resulted in
a significant expansion of the hospitality and retail trades, in which
employment has more than doubled in recent years. The much lower level of
manufacturing in the town has meant that the general contraction of
employment in this sector has had a much less significant impact.
3.7.10 Whilst the town clearly benefits from its strong public sector, the very high
proportion of employment in this sector suggests over dependence upon
employment in a small number of organisations, such as the County Council.
The location decisions of a small number of individuals or decisions made by
central Government could have an impact on the town’s economy. Despite
this, the town has natural assets, in terms of its location and its heritage. Its
physical environment means that it is able to position itself as a high quality
visitor destination and can attract high earning residents from other areas,
whose spending patterns can foster the growth of a strong service sector
economy. However, the financial and business services sector in the town
remains fairly small and will need to continue to grow to ensure that the
town’s economy is sufficiently diverse to withstand any potential losses in
public sector employment. The qualifications of people in Lewes town are
generally higher than those of people in the rest of the district, so there is the
knowledge and potential to grow and support high-tech businesses.
3.7.11 Like Lewes town, Seaford is also dependent upon public sector employment,
but the jobs are mainly in the health and education sectors, which support the
town’s families and older residents. Changes in the Seaford economy have
been far less marked than in either Lewes town or Newhaven. These
sectors, along with the retail sector continue to be the main sources of local
employment. However, the demographic profile of Seaford is likely to
influence the structure of the town’s economy. Nearly one third of its
residents are over the age of 60 years – much higher than in Newhaven or
Lewes town. Whilst Seaford remains an attractive location for older people to
retire to, the demand for health and social care services is likely to remain
high, whilst the ability to attract a critical mass of innovative high growth
businesses that serve external markets may be limited. There is demand
from the population profile, with its high proportion of families and older
people, for local services and who affect the dynamism of the workforce
Step Ahead Research
17
An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
creating a low proportion of businesses in the sub-area that supply other
businesses. These types of businesses tend to be more outward looking and
serve a wider range of markets.
3.7.12 The range of businesses and employment opportunities in the sub-areas
affect the capacity of the economic base to support people travelling into work
from other locations. Seaford does not have a strong enough economic base
with a range of high-level employment opportunities to attract people to travel
to work in the sub-area. The business profile and range of employment
opportunities in Lewes town, particularly in the public sector, and in the
manufacturing sector in Newhaven, attract workers resident in other parts of
the district.
3.8
Commuting
3.8.1
The dynamism of the sub-areas is influenced by commuting patterns, which
affect disposable income in the district. Table 5 compares the number of
people who commute out of the district to work in other parts of Sussex with
the number of people who commute into the district to work.
Table 5: Commuting Patterns in the Lewes District
Lewes residents working People working in Lewes Net
in the area
living in the area
Commuting14
Area
%
Count
%
Count
41080
-
35830
-
Live and work in Lewes
5250
23570
57%
23570
66%
0
Brighton & Hove
7700
19%
4000
11%
3700
Non-Sussex areas (inc London)
2980
7%
690
2%
2300
Mid Sussex
2090
5%
1440
4%
650
Wealden
1560
4%
2920
8%
-1350
Crawley
1060
3%
110
0%
950
Eastbourne
950
2%
1340
4%
-400
Adur
360
1%
390
1%
-30
Horsham
290
1%
270
1%
20
Arun
50
0%
150
0%
-100
Chichester
30
0%
40
0%
-10
Hastings
90
0%
320
1%
-220
140
0%
340
1%
-200
Worthing
200
Source: Census 2001.
NB: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
0%
260
1%
-50
Rother
3.8.2
Count
Total
Two in five (43%) Lewes district residents in work are employed outside the
district. The proximity of Brighton & Hove has a considerable impact on
employment patterns of local residents. Nearly one in five (18%) of all Lewes
district residents in work are employed in Brighton & Hove, with a high
proportion coming from Lewes town itself. 1,700 people commute out of the
district to work in London. However, two thirds (66%) of people who work in
A positive figure indicates that less people in work are employed in the district than live there – i.e.
people travel out of the district to work. A negative number indicates that more people come to work in
Lewes from the other area than vice versa – i.e. Lewes district is a source of employment for their
residents.
14
Step Ahead Research
18
An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
the district also live there. People who commute to work are generally
employed in higher-level occupations and the high level of people commuting
out of the district to work, compared to those travelling in to work suggests
that the district may have a relatively low proportion of higher paying
occupations compared to some neighbouring areas. The financial and
business services are a high paying sector and the lack of employment
opportunities available in this sector in the district may contribute to the
number of talented residents that work in other areas.
3.8.3
More highly paid people, such as managers and professionals are likely to
commute out of the district to work – these occupations are likely to earn an
average of £10,000 to £15,000 more than the average for all occupations.
The majority of commuters’ earnings are spent where they live15, and
therefore, out-commuting to higher paid jobs can be beneficial to an area and
bring new money in. Out-commuters who are able to earn more money
working outside the Lewes district have supported the growth in service
sector employment. It is notable that residents in Lewes town, where the
range of facilities is much greater are much more likely to travel further to
work than residents in Newhaven and Seaford, where the range of facilities
are generally weaker and businesses are more inward-looking.
3.8.4
Many Lewes town residents reportedly work at the universities in Brighton &
Hove, which also provide a rich supply of higher quality labour for Sussex
businesses. Stakeholders suggest that the two universities offer an
opportunity to develop and diversify the Lewes district economy, particularly
with respect to increasing the proportion of knowledge based and financial
and business services employment. By supporting activities that link local
high growth businesses with the universities, the district can develop a base
of knowledge businesses that will drive its future economic development.
3.9
Employment Forecasts – 2005 - 2010
3.9.1
Employment is forecast to rise by 2,000 between 2005 and 2010, particularly
in the public service sector, with overall employment growth mirroring the
regional trend. Table 6 shows the forecast changes in the structure of
employment within Lewes district between 2005 and 2010.
Table 6: Forecast Changes in Employment - 2005 - 2010
2005
Count
Agriculture, Mining and Utilities
1,200
Manufacturing
6,200
Construction
Distribution, Hotels & Catering
Transport & Communications
Financial Intermediation & Business
Services
Other (mainly public) services
Total
2010
%
Count
2005-2010
%
Change
Growth
3%
1,500
3%
300
25%
14%
5,600
12% -
600
-10%
6,100
14%
6,900
15%
800
13%
7,600
18%
7,500
16% -
100
-1%
1,900
4%
1,900
4%
100
3%
4,500
10%
4,500
10%
100
1%
15,600
43,100
36%
17,200
45,100
38%
1,600
10%
100%
100%
2,000
5%
Source: Sussex Economy Forecasting Model 2003 Experian/Business Strategies/ Skills Insight and Step Ahead
Research.
NB: Numbers may not sum due to rounding and due to data availability engineering is a sub-sector of manufacturing.
15
Oxford Economic Forecasting - London’s Linkages with the Rest of the UK – May 2004.
Step Ahead Research
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
3.9.2
The proportion of employment in the manufacturing sector is forecast to
continue to diminish. Public sector employment is forecast to grow slightly
and with it the local economy is likely to become more dependent on
Government spending. Employment in the growth sector of financial and
business services is forecast to remain static and the district is unlikely to
benefit as much as it might from employment in this sector. Future
employment forecasts are based on a continuation of established trends,
which can be changed by unforeseen events, such as inward investment or
via public sector intervention and while useful they should be interpreted with
caution.
3.9.3
Looking at how employment between sectors is currently distributed across
the sub-areas, it is likely that Newhaven will continue to suffer most acutely
from the continued restructuring of the manufacturing sector and that growth
in hotels and catering and public sector employment will be mainly in Lewes
town. Left unchallenged the economic differences between the district’s subareas are likely to further diverge.
3.9.4
Lewes district needs to build on the advantages of its close proximity to
Brighton & Hove and to increase the range and quality of employment
opportunities, which may help to retain out-commuters and diversify its
economic base. Stakeholders currently report that high growth businesses
from the Sussex Innovation Centre, for example, are naturally drawn to
Brighton & Hove, rather than looking east to Lewes district. However, Lewes
district can benefit from the success that Brighton & Hove has had in
becoming a centre for the creative industries.
3.9.5
It will be necessary to attract other types of businesses to the area to counterbalance manufacturing losses and for the area to benefit from growth in
financial and business services. The continuing decline in manufacturing
employment is likely to impact on demand for employment premises suitable
for this industry – with less being required and more space becoming vacant.
Stakeholders suggest that changes in technology are likely to continue to
affect the way the sector works and the amount of floorspace it requires. In
the service sector, information and communications advances are likely to
increase remote and home working, and rural areas are likely to continue to
see an increase in employment. The stock of commercial premises needs to
reflect the needs of modern businesses, particularly in the financial and
business service sector, if the district is to attract companies of this type and
diversify its economic base.
Step Ahead Research
20
An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
4.
Forecast Demand for Business Space
4.1.1
The rental values and the dynamism of the local commercial property market
will affect the extent and nature of the demand for employment land in the
Lewes district over the coming years. Analysis of employment projections
suggest that overall demand for B1 (office space), B2 (light industrial) and B8
(storage and distribution) floorspace is likely to be negative, largely due to
losses in manufacturing employment. However, there is evidence of positive
demand for B1 office use, smaller spaces and move-on accommodation,
stakeholders suggest that demand is particularly for Lewes town and
Newhaven. The main issue is the quality of existing stock, which is largely
unable to meet the needs of modern businesses and does not attract
businesses to the area, rather than a lack of suitable sites.
4.2
Demand for Employment Floorspace
4.2.1
To assess the scale and nature of demand for commercial floorspace,
employment forecasts are used by sector to 2010. The techniques outlined in
the ODPM document are applied to translate the employment forecasts into
floorspace projections using proxies for Use Class and estimates for
floorspace per employee.
4.2.2
When translating forecast employment into land requirements there are a
number of relationships, which need to be clarified and a number of
assumptions need to be made. The rules of thumb are by no means perfect,
and they do not necessarily match local circumstances. However, given that
forecasting is an imperfect science, the data can be used to indicate overall
trends and provide broad information to be tested against local stakeholders’
experiences of the types of premises businesses require in the district. The
method uses projects employment forecasts, translates SIC codes into
planning use class proxies and applies standard floorspace per employee
ratios to estimate required employment space. A detailed explanation of the
methodology is in the Annex.
4.2.3
The data shows that it is likely there will be a slight increase in the demand for
office accommodation and a decline in the space required for general
industrial, and storage and distribution. This is broadly in keeping with the
trend of a declining manufacturing sector and an increase in office based
service sector employment shown in Table 6 in the previous chapter. Table 7
shows how the forecast changes in employment translate into likely demand
for floorspace.
Table 7: Estimated Business Floorspace Requirements in Lewes District - 2005 2010
Use Class
B1
B2
B8
TOTAL
Employment
Change in
Lewes District
2005-2010
+100
- 600
- 300
- 900
Roger Tym
Estimate –
Floorspace per
employee m2
17.9
29.7
40.1
-
Arup Estimate–
Floorspace per
employee m2
19
34
50
-
Roger
Tym
Estimate
(m2)
900
-18,900
-11,200
-29,200
Arup
Estimate
(m2)
900
-21,600
-14,000
-34,600
NB: numbers may not sum due to rounding.
Step Ahead Research
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
4.2.4
Overall it is forecast that demand for employment floorspace in Lewes district
between 2005-2010 will be negative. This is mainly because of predicted falls
in manufacturing and warehousing employment, which have large employee
floorspace ratios compared to B1 office use. These forecasts do not take
account of any pent up demand from existing businesses, home workers or
the self-employed. They also fail to capture demand from new or emerging
industries that may not be reflected in the SIC code proxies, such as
elements of Digital Media16. The recommended proxy for B1 office use is
financial and business services and the Lewes district has a low proportion of
employment in this sector. Office accommodation in the district may be
required by other sectors, such as the public sector, and it does not take
account of any aspirations to diversify the business base.
4.2.5
It may be necessary to try to attract other types of businesses to the area to
counter-balance manufacturing losses and benefit from growth in financial
and business services, potentially by upgrading and renovating existing stock
to make it suitable for modern “knowledge businesses”. The floorspace
estimates do not take account of potential inward investment or overspill from
businesses in neighbouring areas, such as Brighton & Hove. The universities
in Brighton and Sussex Innovation Centre offer a potential source of growing
knowledge businesses in need of move-on accommodation – space for
growing recent start-ups. Forging strong links with these organisations and
their businesses may help the Lewes district increase its proportion of
“knowledge employment” provided that suitable premises are available. Good
quality employment space needs to be made available to create demand and
to attract businesses from neighbouring areas. Businesses will not be
attracted to the area unless the quality of the stock is right.
4.2.6
Forecasts can be changed by unforeseen events, such as a large inward
investment or via public sector intervention. The SIC code – Use Class proxy
is less useful when dealing with new or emerging sectors, such Digital Media,
which may not be captured fully by the B1 estimation17. This should be borne
in mind when interpreting the data, which may underestimate demand for B1
office space, the data is indicative and therefore should be treated with
caution.
4.3
Low Rental Values and a Localised Property Market
4.3.1
There is some evidence that the property market in the Lewes district is
localised, and that demand for commercial property is mainly from the growth
and start-up of indigenous firms rather than businesses looking to locate from
elsewhere18, “East Sussex has a localised market with negligible inward
investment activity. Nonetheless, there remains the view that land is required
for local firms”19.
4.3.2
The small size of the commercial property market, low rental values and a
lack of dynamism have led to a lack of investment in the commercial stock,
which is now ageing and much of which is unsuitable to meet the needs of
DCMS Creative Industries Official Definition – Digital Media covers SIC codes in 92, a sub-sector of
‘other (mainly public) services’.
17 ODPM – Employment Land Reviews – Guidance Note.
18 SEER Consulting - Room to Grow.
19 Vail Williams – East Sussex – Small Business Units and Employment Land – December 2004.
16
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
modern businesses. Stakeholders report that the poor quality of business
premises and stock has been affecting business retention and contributing to
vacancy rates. Empty sites and property were perceived to be because of a
lack of the right quality of stock rather than a lack of demand.
4.3.3
Several of the stakeholders interviewed for the project supported the finding
of the Vail Williams research - that the district does not attract significant
inward investment, particularly in sectors that are cost sensitive, such as
manufacturing. This is part of a wider national trend of economic
restructuring. Indigenous demand does not provide a strong enough
incentive for commercial property development, which is risky because the
district lack’s a “critical mass” of businesses.
4.3.4
Partly as a result of a lack of inward investment and other property market
factors, only 2% of all commercial property development in Sussex since
1987 has been built in East Sussex.20 Therefore much of the stock of
business premises in the county is ageing and has few of the benefits of
modern business accommodation. Financial and business services, which
has been a key driver of the UK economy in recent years, require good
quality office space and more needs to be done to ensure the district doesn’t
fall further behind in its proportion of employment in this fast-growing sector –
the district currently has proportionately 10% less employment in this sector
than Sussex.
4.3.5
This starkly highlights the need to improve the quality of the stock of business
premises in order to not only attract new businesses, but to retain existing
employers. Stakeholders mentioned that business retention also suffers as a
result of inappropriate and ageing premises and that if a company relocates
out of the district premises are often left empty for long periods. This is
detrimental to the attractiveness of the urban environment and compounds
the unlikelihood of inward investment. Vacancy rates were also suggested by
several stakeholders to be a symptom of the quality of the stock rather than
lack of overall demand for premises, especially in Lewes town itself. Empty
property in the district does not necessarily indicate a lack of demand for
business premises, but rather that there is a need to renovate existing sites
and develop high-quality new accommodation to meet demand and to help to
retain businesses.
4.3.6
The South East Plan requires more efficient use to be made of existing sites
and premises that are not used because they are unsuitable for modern
business needs. Creativity and flexibility is required in finding ways to bring
forward sites and a proactive approach is needed to return vacant sites into
use. All stakeholders agreed that although housing development may bring
mixed-use sites into use more quickly, it was vital that the medium to longterm economic needs of the district are not compromised and employment
land reallocated to other uses. Employment land has to meet the needs of
the current and future business base, both in terms of quantity and quality.
20
SEER Consulting – Room to Grow.
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
4.4
The Likely Nature of Demand
4.4.1
The outcome of the data analysis in Section 3 would seem to be broadly
supported by information gathered from stakeholder interviews – there is a
trend for manufacturing companies to relocate due to high operational costs
relative to international locations, and there is some demand for quality B1
office accommodation. Stakeholders identified some general trends in the
likely nature of future premises demand, including demand for smaller units,
and particularly for move on accommodation. They reported demand was
mainly for Lewes town, which reflects its strength as an employment centre
and Newhaven, as a result of its space and potential.
4.4.2
The provision of move-on accommodation – space for expanding recent startups - was seen as particularly important for the local economy to retain
indigenous start-ups and to reap the benefit from growing “knowledge
businesses” moving-on from the Sussex Innovation Centre, the Newhaven
Enterprise Gateway and the local universities. To try to meet this demand it
was suggested that vacant larger sites could be converted into a number of
smaller units, which would make them more suitable to meet demand.
4.4.3
There were perceived differences in the attractiveness of the district’s subareas for business location, which are likely to affect where the positive
demand for office accommodation needs to be met. In general stakeholders
did not refer to the sub-area of Peacehaven. Perhaps this reflects the fact
that only 5% of the districts employment is in this sub-area. It was not viewed
as an attractive location for modern businesses and was perceived to lack a
“business centre”. This suggests that there is unlikely to be significant
demand for employment space in the town and the development needs of the
Lewes district may have to be met in other areas that are perceived to be
more attractive business locations.
4.4.4
The business community in Seaford was perceived by stakeholders to be
“close-knit”, with many family-run businesses serving the needs of the local
population. It was reported that there was little inward investment and the
draw as a wider centre was limited for both businesses and consumers.
Indeed Seaford has little draw for in-commuters and the majority of workers in
the sub-area live locally21. This suggests that there is unlikely to be
significant demand for business space in the town and that demand may have
to be met in other sub-areas of the district.
4.4.5
Overall, stakeholders commented that the preferred business locations within
the Lewes district were Newhaven and Lewes town. Lewes town is attractive
to businesses because of the quality of life it offers and ease of access to
London and Brighton, both by road and rail. Newhaven’s strengths include its
potential, particularly on the waterfront, with space and opportunity for
development. It was the opinion of the majority of stakeholders that the
demand for business premises in the district was in Lewes town and
Newhaven. Therefore it is likely that new or upgraded office accommodation
would be best placed in these sub-areas to meet demand.
4.4.6
Stakeholders commented on the general difficulties in developing sites and
bringing them forward. These difficulties included fragmented ownership, and
Census 2001 – over 70% of residents work in the area, with only 23% travelling to work in the town
from other areas.
21
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
contamination, particularly in manufacturing sites, and access, which are by
no means only common to the district, but face developments across the
country. It is vital to tackle these difficulties creatively in order to meet
business premises demand and to ensure quality of the urban environment.
Investigating ways in which other Local Authorities have worked around these
common issues would be one way of the district learning from other areas
experiences and perhaps finding appropriate innovative solutions that are
tried and tested.
4.5
Summary of Findings
4.5.1
All areas of the Lewes district have been affected by international, national
and regional trends and many of the changes that have occurred in the
district are not peculiar to the local area. Traditional sectors, such as
agriculture and manufacturing have been contracting, while service sector
employment has increased, particularly in the public sector. The area is overreliant on the public sector, which accounts for nearly one third of
employment and economic output. Growth in public spending has helped to
mask structural weaknesses in the district’s employment base - financial and
business service sector employment and output is particularly low.
4.5.2
Nationally financial and business services contributes one quarter of
economic output (24%), in the Lewes district it is estimated to contribute just
over one tenth (13%). This has been one of the fastest growing sectors in the
UK and Lewes district has not been able to benefit from it as much as it
might. Diversifying the local economy should be a priority, particularly trying
to attract and retain companies from the universities, Sussex Innovation
Centre and Newhaven Enterprise Gateway, with the provision of quality office
accommodation.
4.5.3
The imbalance of public sector employment between the sub-areas has
helped Lewes town to ride the change from manufacturing to service based
employment more successfully than Newhaven. Lewes town has been able
to attract well-qualified, high earners to live in the area who have high
disposable income and have helped to build a café and restaurant economy
in the town. These businesses are also supported by daytime spending of
public sector workers.
4.5.4
The structural changes in the economy have affected the stock of business
premises. The data shows a decline in space required for B2 and B8 uses.
There is a small positive demand for B1 office space, but this is likely to be an
underestimate of the overall requirements, particularly if Lewes district is to
diversify.
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
5.
Development Scenarios
5.1.1
Using the analysis of the strengths, weaknesses and potential of the economy
developed in this report a series of scenarios is presented in this section,
each of which could be implemented over the coming years to try to improve
the position of the district. They are not mutually exclusive and different
scenarios may be more appropriate to different sub-areas. The scenarios
include maintaining the status quo, focusing on developing a high quality
visitor offer or stimulating business growth and creation through residential
led development.
5.1.2
The benefits of each scenario are likely to be district-wide as there is
movement around the district, with residents working, visiting and shopping in
other sub-areas. Some of the scenarios focus on particular parts of the
district, where development needs are reported to be greatest. However,
area based approaches should not be overly prescriptive so that benefits do
not accrue to people living in neighbouring areas. Greater linkages between
Seaford, Peacehaven and Newhaven, in particular will mean that the benefits
of current and future development in Newhaven are spread beyond the town’s
residents to other parts of the district.
5.1.3
The rest of East Sussex, which includes most of the rural parts of the district
has been relatively successful in diversifying its economic base. Stakeholder
evidence suggests that this has been driven in part by greater use of
technology in rural areas, which has fuelled the development of remote and
home-based working. Encouraging greater use of ICT and broadband
throughout the district is likely to further strengthen the growth of rural and
home-based businesses and support the development of diversification of
Lewes’s rural economy.
5.2
Option 1.
5.2.1
Under the “do nothing” option no action would be taken and the development
of the district would be left to the market. Based on recent economic changes
and future forecasts, this may mean that there is further polarisation of the
local economy, with Lewes town and the rural areas continuing to benefit and
the coastal towns struggling to adapt to changing economic circumstances.
The favourable physical environment and the relatively high value of
residential developments to landowners means that there is likely to continue
to be pressure to reallocate employment sites for housing, particularly on
those that have become vacant due to economic restructuring.
5.2.2
Existing commercial stock may not be upgraded to meet the reported latent
demand from smaller high growth service sector businesses. Without
upgraded stock the district could be in danger of stifling its long-term
economic development by losing its small businesses with growth potential to
areas that have more suitable business accommodation. This may mean that
the range of employment opportunities in parts of the district remains narrow,
incentives to develop skills amongst local people are suppressed and that
future business growth opportunities are restrained by a lack of employment
land. Derelict sites that cannot be brought forward without a pro-active
approach to development may compromise the attractiveness of the physical
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
environment and impact upon the ability of the district to strengthen its tourist
offer. It may also mean that the district fails to take advantage of
opportunities to diversify and strengthen its economy and continues to be
over-reliant upon public sector employment and sectors that are most
vulnerable to economic restructuring.
5.3
Option 2.
5.3.1
The physical environment of the Lewes district is one of its key assets. In
2002, the visitor economy attracted 2.2 million visitors, contributing £66
million to the local economy. The profile of visitors is reported to be mainly
middle aged and middle class and the STEAM Tourism Impact Study reports
that four out of five visitors to the district are day visitors. There is significant
potential to develop and promote the towns in the district as high quality
tourist destinations to longer stay visitors if the South Downs becomes a
National Park. The district already has a number of existing high quality
attractions, including Glyndebourne, Anne of Cleaves’ House, Lewes Castle,
Charleston Manor, and Newhaven Fort and access to sporting venues, such
as Hickstead and Plumpton Racecourse.
5.3.2
Parts of the district already benefit from the visitor economy, but this could be
extended to other areas. The expansion of the visitor economy will mean
developing Newhaven into a real destination that people want to visit,
providing a co-ordinated approach to the development of the district’s cultural
activities, making the towns more accessible for visitors, developing quality
visitor accommodation and promoting strong customer service skills amongst
the workforce. The development of Newhaven as a destination, with cafes,
bars and a strong evening economy, will increase the importance of having a
regular and reliable ferry service to Dieppe, so that the town can capitalise on
its position as a gateway to Europe.
5.3.3
However, the benefits of this option would not come without risks. Overreliance on the visitor economy makes locations vulnerable to changing
tastes and recent history has shown that economies that rely too heavily on
rural tourism can be badly affected by specific “crises”, such as Foot and
Mouth Disease. In addition, many of the jobs that the visitor economy
supports are seasonal and low paid, making it difficult for local workers to live
in the areas where they work.
5.4
Option 3.
5.4.1
The district as a whole is highly dependent on employment in the public
sector, which has eased its transition from a manufacturing to a service based
economy. However, public sector employment is not distributed evenly in the
district. As the County town of East Sussex, the most affluent town in the
district, Lewes, is home to most of the districts public sector functions,
including the County Courts, Lewes Prison, Sussex Police, East Sussex
County Council, Sussex Ambulance Service, Sussex Fire Brigade, and Lewes
District Council.
5.4.2
By contrast, Newhaven, which is widely acknowledged to have greater
regeneration needs, has had little public sector employment to offset its more
significant losses in manufacturing employment. This uneven profile of public
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
sector employment has contributed to the unbalanced economy within the
district. A more equitable distribution of public sector employment could help
to generate more employment opportunities in its less affluent areas and act
as a catalyst to further business development in the areas that need it most.
5.4.3
There are likely to be significant political, as well as practical challenges to
moving public sector functions from their existing locations and any benefits
may be offset by losses to Lewes town centre. Any major employment
developments need to be supported by improvements in access and the
wider geographical distribution of public sector functions may add to transport
pressures in the district.
5.5
Option 4.
Upgrading Existing Accommodation to Support and
Attract New, High Growth Businesses
5.5.1
Nationally the financial and business service sector has seen the fastest
growth in economic output in the last fifteen years, and this sector is forecast
to continue to be a key driver of future economic growth. Strong performing
areas tend to have a large proportion of employment in this sector, whilst
those that are economically weaker tend to have a lower proportion.
Nationally, the financial and business services sector contributes one quarter
of economic output (24%), whereas in the Lewes district it is estimated to
contribute only just over one tenth (13%). Of all the Sussex districts only
Hastings has a lower proportion of financial and business services sector than
Lewes district.
5.5.2
Stakeholders suggest that there is pent-up demand from small and growing
businesses in this sector, but that this is suppressed because the existing
accommodation stock is unsuitable to meet their requirements. The future
estimated demand for B1 floorspace shown in the forecasts support this view.
Given the district’s close proximity to the high growth corridor in central
Sussex, Brighton & Hove and London, and its capacity to attract higher skilled
managers and professionals as residents, it is likely to have the capacity to
develop and attract a body of relatively high growth small businesses if
business units in the right locations are upgraded to meet the needs of
modern business use. Despite the loss of traditional manufacturing in the
district, there is some evidence of a growth in higher-level advanced
engineering in the district, which will need to be supported by the
development of appropriate business accommodation.
5.5.3
The two universities, the Sussex Innovation Centre and the Newhaven
Enterprise Gateway all offer a potential source of growing companies that are
likely to require high quality move-on accommodation. The district will fail to
capitalise on the potential benefits of these companies who will move to other
areas, if it does not create a range of high quality commercial premises and
move on accommodation.
5.6
Option 5.
5.6.1
A common criticism of Newhaven among stakeholders interviewed for this
project was that the quality of the town centre was poor with few amenities, a
weak retail offer and little evidence of a developing café, restaurant and bar
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
culture to support local employment. Furthermore, the ring road blocks off the
town centre and means that there is no passing traffic, which reduces the flow
of pedestrians. In contrast to the more affluent Lewes town, the relatively low
disposable incomes of residents in Newhaven and the difficulties that it has
had in attracting high spend visitors, have inhibited the development of local
facilities. More recent residential developments at West Quay have managed
to attract higher earning professionals to Newhaven and this may continue
with the development of Railway Quay.
5.6.2
Continuing the development of high quality residential accommodation could
begin to regenerate the town centre, as amenities emerge in response to the
changing residential make up in the area, which could also support the town’s
development as a visitor destination. Residential growth would require the
development of supporting infrastructure, such as roads, schools, healthcare,
water and sewerage, to ensure the development is sustainable. Focusing on
attracting higher earning professionals into the area may only result in the
“gentrification” of the area, with existing local residents seeing few benefits.
Furthermore, residential led growth may encroach on employment use sites
and reduce the range of employment sites for development.
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An Analysis of Business Growth Potential in the Lewes District
6.
Conclusions and Recommendations
6.1.1
Although there is pressure on land for housing development and there are a
number of vacant business sites, protecting employment land for future
development is important to ensure that the district has sufficient scope to
broaden its economic base and respond effectively to wider national and
international economic changes.
6.1.2
Employment in the district is relatively dependent upon the public sector in
Lewes town and Seaford and traditional manufacturing in Newhaven, but the
district has opportunities to broaden its economic base by expanding its
tourism offer, supporting higher level creative and business services and
making more effective linkages between its indigenous businesses and the
universities and colleges in the area. Business growth in the district is
unlikely to be driven by significant inward investment, as it is too far away
from the South East region’s arrival destinations. Economic growth is much
more likely to be achieved by building on the district’s existing assets and
natural resources, developing the skills of its people, supporting the growth of
existing companies and attracting small high growth businesses from
neighbouring areas.
6.1.3
Both the data analysis and interviews with stakeholders suggest that there
may be pent-up demand for business premises in the Lewes district particularly smaller units and move-on accommodation - but the quality of the
current stock is often poor and inappropriate for modern businesses. The lack
of appropriate stock may have affected the way in which the district’s
economy has performed and inhibited the growth of a strong business culture.
6.1.4
The District Council needs to work closely with developers and landowners to
identify creative solutions to bring forward and renovate sites, particularly for
B1 use in Newhaven and Lewes town where there appears to be most
demand.
6.1.5
The physical environment and quality of life in the Lewes district is one of its
key assets. In 2002, visitors spent £66m in the local economy and the district
has the opportunity to capitalise on the designation of the South Downs as a
National Park and the districts position as a gateway to Europe. There needs
to be a clear and co-ordinated strategic vision for the development of a high
quality visitor economy across the whole district to maximise its maritime,
rural and cultural assets as the ‘raw’ materials of the tourism industry. Such a
vision also would need to develop Newhaven as a real visitor destination,
address transport and access issues (including parking), improve the
customer service skills of local residents and co-ordinate the cultural and
creative events in the district. A reliable and regular ferry service from
Newhaven would further add to the depth of this offer and help to ensure that
the sub-area also benefits.
6.1.6
The economic benefits of bringing forward employment sites for development
are often marginal for landowners and this adds to the pressure for residential
development. On some sites, mixed-use developments may be the only way
in which employment sites can be brought forward profitably, where there are
no other ways for upgrading employment sites. Limited and well-targeted
residential developments could help to cross-finance development of high
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quality sites for employment that cannot otherwise be brought forward, but
these will need to demonstrate that there is no other option and that they will
improve the availability of modern business units to support the changing
local economy.
6.1.7
Six key recommendations from the analysis and conclusions in the report
have been developed.
1. Lewes District Council should ensure that there are adequate and suitable
employment sites to meet current and future demand as the employment
structure and dynamics of the local economy continue to change over the
coming years. These are likely to be mainly for B1 office developments,
rather than for B2 and B8 uses.
2. Lewes District Council should seek to diversify the economic base of the
district so that it has a greater proportion of employment in strong growth
sectors, such as financial and business services, cultural and creative sectors
and advanced engineering. The local economy is dependent upon public
sector employment and traditional manufacturing, the latter of which is
vulnerable to continued economic restructuring and international competition.
High growth businesses will be difficult to retain and attract if quality
commercial premises are not available, so development should focus on high
quality B1 office space and move-on accommodation.
3. Lewes District Council should take a cross boundary and district-wide
approach to developing a high quality visitor economy and develop a coordinated approach to marketing the district as a gateway to the South Downs
National Park, if it is designated by the Secretary of State.
4. The regeneration and diversification of the economic base in Newhaven
should be a priority and will involve renewing the physical environment of the
town and developing the town as a genuine destination that people choose to
visit.
5. Lewes District Council should work with public sector partners to identify ways
in which the high levels of public sector employment can be distributed more
evenly throughout the district as a catalyst to support economic and
employment growth in the more deprived parts of the area.
6. Lewes District Council needs to continue to work with partners to develop the
skills of local people so that the district has the human capital to respond
effectively to the changing needs of the modern economy and to attract
higher-level businesses to the local area.
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Annex
A1.
The Sussex Forecasting Model predicts employment by industrial sector on
the basis of Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes a standard
classification system for business sectors. Therefore the first part of this
method is to translate SIC codes into the Use Class codes used for planning.
Table A1 below shows the proxy used by Greater London Economics to
translate SIC Codes into Use Classes.
Table A1: SIC code to Use Class Proxy
Use Class
B1 - Office
B2 - General Industrial
B8 - Storage and Distribution
SIC Sector
Financial and Business Services
Manufacturing
Wholesale and Distribution
Source: Greater London Economics in the ODPM – Employment Land Review: Guidance Notes.
A2.
The SIC code to Use Class proxy is not expected to be a perfect match. For
example, there are a number of office occupiers that are not in the financial
and business services sector and a proportion of businesses service
companies that are not office based. However, it will provide a reasonable
estimate for the purposes of this study.
A3.
The next step is to use the forecasting model to estimate employment change
between 2005 and 2010 by planning Use Class using the SIC code-Use
Class proxies in Table A1. Table A2 shows the forecast total employment,
absolute change and likely employment growth between 2005 and 2010 in
the Lewes district.
Table A2: Total Forecast Employment Change and Growth in Lewes District - 2005 2010
Use Class
B1
B2
B8
TOTAL
Employment 2005
4,500
6,200
5,900
16,600
Employment 2010
4,500
5,600
5,600
15,700
Absolute Change
+100
- 600
- 300
- 900
Growth
1.1%
-10.2%
-4.8%
-5.2%
Source: EBS and Step Ahead Research.
NB: numbers may not sum due to rounding.
A4.
Table A2 shows that it is likely there will be a slight increase in the demand
for office accommodation and a decline in the space required for general
industrial, and storage and distribution. This is broadly in keeping with the
national trend of a declining manufacturing sector and an increase in office
based service sector employment.
A5.
The employment estimates in Table A2 can be translated into floorspace
requirements using average floorspace ratios per worker. Floorspace per
employee ratios – how much space each employee needs to work - vary from
company to company and between locations, so no estimate is perfect.
However, Roger Tym and Partners and Arup have developed standard
national proxies, which are applied to the Lewes district in Table A3 below.
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Table A3: Estimated Business Floorspace Requirements in Lewes District - 2005 2010
Use Class
B1
B2
B8
TOTAL
Absolute
Change
+100
- 600
- 300
- 900
Roger Tym Estimate
– Floorspace per
employee m2
17.9
29.7
40.1
-
Arup Estimate–
Floorspace per
employee m2
19
34
50
-
Roger Tym
Estimate
(m2)
900
-18,900
-11,200
-29,200
Arup
Estimate
(m2)
900
-21,600
-14,000
-34,600
NB: numbers may not sum due to rounding.
Local Futures SIC code Definition of Knowledge Employment
1110 : Extraction: crude petroleum/natural gas
1120 : Service activities:oil & gas extraction
2211 : Publishing of books
2212 : Publishing of newspapers
2213 : Publishing of journals and periodicals
2214 : Publishing of sound recordings
2215 : Other publishing
2221 : Printing of newspapers
2222 : Printing nec
2310 : Manufacture of coke oven products
2320 : Manufacture: refined petroleum products
2330 : Processing of nuclear fuel
2411 : Manufacture of industrial gases
2412 : Manufacture of dyes and pigments
2413 : Manufacture: other inorganic chemicals
2414 : Manufacture: other organic chemicals
2415 : Manufacture: fertilizers
2416 : Manufacture of plastics in primary forms
2417 : Manufacture: synth. rubber primary forms
2420 : Manufacture of pesticides etc
2430 : Manufacture of paints, varnishes etc
2441 : Manufacture of pharmaceutical products
2442 : Manufacture: pharmaceutical preparations
2451 : Manufacture of soap/detergents etc
2452 : Manufacture of perfumes/toilet etc
2461 : Manufacture of explosives
2462 : Manufacture of glues and gelatines
2463 : Manufacture of essential oils
2464 : Manufacture of photographic chemicals
2465 : Manufacture of prepared unrecorded media
2466 : Manufacture of other chemicals nec
2470 : Manufacture of man-made fibres
3001 : Manufacture of office machinery
3002 : Manufacture of computers etc
3210 : Manufacture of electronic valves etc
3220 : Manufacture of TV/radio transmitters etc
3230 : Manufacture of TV/radio receivers etc
3310 : Manuf: medical/surgical equipment etc
3320 : Manuf: instruments for measuring etc
3330 : Manuf: industrial process control equip.
3340 : Manufacture of optical instruments etc
3350 : Manufacture of watches and clocks
3530 : Manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft
4010 : Production/distribution of electricity
4020 : Manufacture/distribution of gas
4030 : Steam and hot water supply
4100 : Collection/purification etc of water
6210 : Scheduled air transport
6220 : Non-scheduled air transport
7220 : Software consultancy and supply
7230 : Data processing
Step Ahead Research
7240 : Data base activities
7250 : Maintenance/repair: office machinery etc
6230 : Space transport
6412 : Courier activities
6420 : Telecommunications
6511 : Central banking
6512 : Other monetary intermediation
6521 : Financial leasing
6522 : Other credit granting
6523 : Other financial intermediation nec
6711 : Administration of financial markets
6712 : Security broking and fund management
6713 : Activ. auxil. to fin. intermediation nec
6720 : Activ. auxil. to insur./pension funding
7210 : Hardware consultancy
7220 : Software consultancy and supply
7230 : Data processing
7240 : Data base activities
7250 : Maintenance/repair: office machinery etc
7260 : Other computer related activities
7310 : Research: natural sciences/engineering
7320 : Research: social sciences/humanities
7411 : Legal activities
7412 : Accounting/book-keeping activities etc
7413 : Market research/public opinion polling
7414 : Business/management consultancy activ.
7415 : Management activities: holding companies
7420 : Architectural/engineering activities
7430 : Technical testing and analysis
7440 : Advertising
7450 : Labour recruitment etc
7460 : Investigation and security activities
7481 : Photographic activities
7483 : Secretarial and translation activities
7484 : Other business activities nec
9211 : Motion picture and video production
9212 : Motion picture and video distribution
9213 : Motion picture projection
9220 : Radio and television activities
9231 : Artistic and literary creation etc
9232 : Operation of arts facilities
9233 : Fair and amusement park activities
9234 : Other entertainment activities nec
9240 : News agency activities
9251 : Library and archives activities
9252 : Museum activities etc
9253 : Botanical and zoological gardens etc
9261 : Operation of sports arenas and stadiums
9262 : Other sporting activities
9271 : Gambling and betting activities
9272 : Other recreational activities nec
33