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PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) CONCEPT STAGE Report No.: AB1550 Project Name Region Sector Project ID Borrower(s) Implementing Agency Environment Category Date PID Prepared Estimated Date of Appraisal Authorization Estimated Date of Board Approval Access to Finance for SMEs EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Micro- and SME finance (70%);General finance sector (15%);General industry and trade sector (15%) P082822 GOVERNMENT OF TURKEY Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi (TSKB), Treasury [ ] A [ ] B [ ] C [X ] FI [ ] TBD (to be determined) April 13, 2005 June 20, 2005 February 14, 2006 1. Key development issues and rationale for Bank involvement Key conditions for keeping Turkey on a path of steady growth and ensuring compliance with EU accession requirements include maintaining macroeconomic stability, and broadening structural reforms to improve the business environment and increase employment. Turkey’s economic stability has significantly improved since the 2001 financial crisis, as indicated by a marked reduction in inflation (down from 65% in 1999 to single-digit rates in mid-2004) and by initial improvements in public finance, including reductions of the fiscal deficit and the public debt stock to GDP ratio. Macroeconomic changes have been coupled with first structural reforms, including liberalization of key industries, initial reform of the banking sector, and autonomy for institutions such as the Central Bank and the Supervision Agency.1 Despite recent improvements, Turkey’s macroeconomic balance remains fragile, a number of structural reforms still need to be finalized, and other reforms are yet to be initiated. Permanently lowering inflation to single digit levels, reducing the fiscal deficit and the public debt stock to GDP ratio toward EU averages, completing the restructuring of the banking sector and reforming the public sector are some of Turkey’s current challenges. Increasing employment and improving the country’s business environment by increasing firms’ access to finance, technology, information and efficient services are equally challenging tasks awaiting Turkey as it embarks on the path toward EU accession and strives for steady economic growth and improved welfare. While acknowledging the importance of macroeconomic factors, this project proposal focuses on creating better conditions to improve the business environment, with a specific focus on increasing access to finance for SMEs. 1.2 Development of SMEs could be an important factor in sustaining Turkey’s growth, creating employment, maintaining social stability, and integrating the Turkish productive sector with the EU and the global economy. However, Turkish SMEs’ current value added, See: Republic of Turkey, November 2004, “Pre-Accession Economic Programme, 2004” and Commission of the European Communities, October 2004, “Regular Report on Turkey’s progress towards accession.” 1 productivity and exports are very limited. Many small firms also prefer to remain informal. Turkish SMEs — roughly defined as firms with fewer than 250 employees2 — constitute 61 percent of total employment in Turkey but contribute only 26.5 percent to the economy’s value added, significantly less than SMEs in comparator countries (see Table 1).3 Figures from the Turkish Foreign Investor Association indicate that Turkish SMEs’ contributions to investment and exports are about 7 percent and 8 percent respectively, versus 36 percent and 20 percent in South Korea, for example.4 Anecdotal evidence also suggests that the productivity of Turkish SMEs — e.g., in the food processing, textile and retail industries — is lower than the productivity of SMEs in similar income comparator countries. Finally, informality is very high in Turkey (51 percent of total employment in 2003).5 This has significant impacts on the Government’s fiscal revenues, on competition levels, and on the overall productivity of the Turkish private sector. Measures to alleviate constraints on SME growth, coupled with measures to improve the country’s overall business environment, would help to improve the productivity and growth of the Turkish real sector, reduce informality and increase employment. Table 1: SMEs’ Employment and GDP Share: Cross Country Comparison SME sector — share of SME sector — Country formal employment contribution to GDP Turkey 61 27 Bulgaria 50 39 Romania 37 34 Poland 63 49 Slovak Republic 57 37 Italy 80 59 Source: Ayyagari, Beck & Demirguc-Kunt, 2003. Note: SMEs are defined as firms with fewer than 250 employees. 1.3. One of the key reasons for SMEs’ limited value added and productivity is insufficient access to credit, which is heavily concentrated in large firms. Responding to the macroeconomic stabilization and the associated reduction in the profitability of holding Government securities, credit to the private sector has been growing at a rapid pace in Turkey. However, the credit is mainly directed to consumers — in the past two years, consumer credit has grown three times faster than commercial credit (see Table 2). In the commercial loan segment, SMEs have been particularly underserved — at the end of 2004, more than 50 percent of the total commercial credit was directed to just 418 large firms. Turkish Government agencies, banks and chambers of commerce confirm that Turkish SMEs receive a disproportionately small share of bank lending — estimates vary between 3.5 and 20 percent depending on the definition 2 For an overview of current definition of SMEs in Turkey, see The Turkish State Planning Organization (SPO), 2004 SME Strategy and Action Plan, page 26. 3 The Turkish State Planning Organization (SPO), 2004, reports that Turkish SMEs constitute 99.8 percent of total enterprises and 76.7 percent of total employment (SME Strategy and Action Plan, page 8). Differences in data depend on different definitions of SMEs and of formal employment, and on the different years of the analysis. 4 YASED, 2003. Mimeo. 5 OECD, Economic Survey of Turkey, Paris, 2004. Table 2: Credit to Non-Financial Private Sector Credit, billion One year real growth Two years real growth Type of loan YTL (2003-2004) (2002- 2004) Consumer loans 26.2 105% 206% Commercial loans 48.5 31% 53% Other 3.5 -7% -8% Total 78.2 46% 77% Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, November 2004. Note: “Other” includes agricultural coops, non-profits and others. of SMEs.6 According to the Turkish Foreign Investor Association, for example, Turkish SMEs’ share of bank lending is 3.5 percent, versus 47 percent in South Korea. 7 Finally, credit provision is concentrated in the country’s main urban centers: Istanbul and, to some extent, Izmir and Ankara. In 2004, firms located outside these cities received only one-third as much credit as firms located in Istanbul, while contributing three times as much as Istanbul’s firms to the country’s GDP (Table 3). Table 3: Regional Distribution of Credit and GDP Share of Credit Share of GDP (percentage) (percentage) Istanbul 62.0 21.3 Ankara 9.8 7.6 Izmir 5.3 7.3 Other 22.9 63.8 Total 100.0 100.0 Sources: State Institute of Statistics, Credit Bureau at the Central Bank of Turkey. Note: Credit data are from 2004. GDP data are from 2001, but the shares tend to be stable over time. 1.4 Relevant causes of SMEs’ limited access to credit are underdevelopment of the Turkish financial sector and the lack of a sound financial information infrastructure. With domestic credit reaching 18 percent of GDP in 2004,8 Turkey’s financial sector ranks below those of most EU members and candidate countries, among which the average domestic credit to GDP ratio is 2-10 times larger than in Turkey. Moreover, the major private banks in Turkey are affiliated with large industrial and financial groups, to which much of their lending is directed. 6 Some banks define SMEs according to their volume of sales as well as overall borrowing in the banking sector. It is difficult to estimate the share of SME lending because some SME owners may be receiving consumer loans for their businesses. 7 YASED, 2003. Mimeo. 8 Based on November 2004 credit data. Credit to related parties continues to be a major issue. There is no corporate bond market, and the leasing and factoring sectors’ combined assets account for less than 2 percent of GDP.9 Key reasons for underdevelopment of the Turkish financial sector include: Turkish banks hold unusually large portions of their assets in Government securities (40 percent of bank assets as of December 2004). This is due to past macroeconomic instability, heavy Government demand for funds (which crowded out lending to the private sector) and the zero weight risk assigned to Government securities for computing the Banks’ CAR. Still very high real interest rates deter borrowers from requesting loans. At end of 2004, the nominal interest rate had declined to 21 percent, and the real interest rate was 12 percent.10 Nominal interest rates for unsubsidized loans to SMEs were still as high as 35 percent. High taxes on financial intermediation increase spreads and lending rates. Furthermore, the current taxation system favors investment in Government securities over loans to firms. There is a maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities. With the exception of the few banks that are able to secure long-run term syndication deals, most Turkish banks hold shortterm deposits and liabilities, and thus cannot offer long-term loans without taking significant maturity mismatch risks. Limited instruments to hedge against exchange rate risks reduce banks’ ability to lend in local currency. With 47 percent of liabilities denominated in foreign currency,11 banks need to manage foreign exchange risks to lend to non-exporting firms, especially SMEs, in local currency. Use of credit rating systems for SMEs, and more broadly for corporate borrowers, is limited but growing. Although Turkish banks have started using modern SME scoring tools in the past few years, this practice is not widespread. Key reasons for deficiencies in the existing financial information infrastructure include: Lenders have access to limited and fragmented information about the repayment behavior of SMEs. Although Turkey has two credit information registries, one managed by the Central Bank and another managed by the private sector, lenders can only get limited information about the repayment history of SMEs or their owners. In fact, the private bureau has only recently started to systematically collect information about firms. The collateral regime is inadequate. The only movable asset registries that exist in Turkey are for vehicles, boats, intellectual property and trademarks. As a result, SMEs cannot easily pledge most of their assets, such as equipment, livestock and other movables. In addition, few Cadastres have automated their processes and computerized their records, making it costly to use land as collateral. SME lending is considered riskier and more costly than lending to large firms due to SMEs’ lack of adequate financial statements. SMEs’ financial statements are often unreliable, do not comply with accounting standards and are not subject to auditing reviews. SMEs also often 9 Based on data from the Turkish Treasury website. Interest rate data are based on the yield on the 1 year T-bill and expected 1 year inflation according to a survey by the Central Bank of Turkey. 11 Based on BRSA data as of year-end 2004. 10 do not make use of key accounting tools — such as cash flow statements and cost accounting systems — to inform their decisions. 1.5 The rationale for the World Bank’s involvement in increasing access to credit for Turkish SMEs is to provide financial support and technical assistance in order to reduce the constraints that the Turkish financial sector faces when targeting SMEs. The World Bank can help the Government of Turkey (GOT) increase SMEs’ access to credit by providing financial institutions with long-term finance and by offering technical assistance and investment (as needed) to improve the country’s financial information infrastructure. The Bank’s support to the GOT stems from its broad knowledge in both of these areas, based on extensive research — particularly recent research in the financial information infrastructure field — and on world wide experience with financing credit lines. 1.6 The Government of Turkey is committed to increasing access to credit for SMEs and has expressed interest in borrowing for the proposed project. SME development is one of the key pillars of the Government’s policies to improve productivity of the private sector and enhance the country’s competitiveness; it is at the forefront of the Turkish Government’s SME Strategy to ensure sustainable economic growth and social stability; and it is a key element of the EU Program for Turkey’s accession.12 Both the Government’s strategic documents and the EU accession paper indicate that insufficient access to long-term finance is a key constraint on SME development in Turkey.13 Since the 2001 crisis, the Government has taken measures to promote the stability and soundness of Turkey’s financial sector, and it is now committed to improving access to credit for the private sector. The Government’s plans include increasing SMEs’ access to finance, providing seed capital for new enterprises, improving assessment of SMEs’ current financial structures, strengthening guarantee schemes for SMEs and improving state aid for SME investments.14 Consistent with its overall strategic framework on SME development, the Treasury has welcomed the proposed WB Project and confirmed that it is ready to borrow for it.15 The WB team is currently in the process of selecting the best-suited implementing agency (or agencies) in collaboration with the Treasury and other institutions that are involved in project design (including private and public development banks, bankers’ associations and chambers of commerce). 1.7 The project is consistent with the World Bank Turkey Country Assistance Strategy (CAS), the overall WB program supporting reform of the Turkish financial sector and overall improvement of the real sector. The project is included as a FY06 deliverable in the CAS and it is a key element of the WB’s broad program aimed at improving Turkey’s financial sector and business environment. More specifically, the project is designed to help Turkey achieve the objective of the third CAS pillar — improving the business climate — with a specific 12 See: Republic of Turkey, 2003: Preliminary National Development Plan (2004-2006), pages 101-108; SPO, 2004: SME Strategy and Action Plan; and Commission of the European Communities, 2004: Regular Report on Turkey’s Progress towards Accession, pages 119-122. 13 Other key areas included in the Government’s strategy to increase SME productivity and growth in Turkey include reforms to improve the overall business environment, development of technological and innovation capacity at the firm level, and education and training to promote entrepreneurship. 14 SPO, 2004: SME Strategy and Action Plan, pages 64-68. 15 See comments on the December Aide Memoire received by the Treasury in February 2005 — including feedback from TKB, TSKB, the Central Bank, KGF, HalkBank, TOBB, KOSGEB and Yapi Kredi. focus on removing finance constraints affecting SMEs. Complementary WB financial sector initiatives currently under development include: (a) the Programmatic Financial and Public Sector Adjustment Loan (PFPSAL III), focused on improving the corporate insolvency regime and strengthening banking supervision, privatization and restructuring strategies for state-owned banks; (b) an additional forthcoming adjustment operation that would complement PFPSAL III; and (d) two ongoing/upcoming credit lines targeting export companies (EFIL II and EFIL III, respectively).16 The main WB complementary initiative to evaluate and improve the productivity of the Turkish real sector is the forthcoming Investment Climate Assessment (ICA). 2. Proposed objective(s) 2.1 The project’s main objective is to increase SMEs’ access to credit, both in the short term and in the medium term, in turn improving their productivity and value added. In the short term, the project will provide a credit line that will grant immediate access to credit for SMEs that currently have limited access to the financial system. The project will target all SMEs, without any sector restrictions. Credit to SMEs located in particularly underserved Regions (i.e., outside of the main urban centers — see Table 3) will be strongly encouraged. In the medium term, the project will initiate improvements to the Turkish financial information infrastructure, i.e., the country’s credit information systems and collateral regime, as well as financial transparency and auditing requirements for SMEs. By improving SMEs’ access to credit, the project will help increase their value added. This, in turn, will help to reduce the gap between SMEs and large firms, ultimately increasing employment and helping Turkey move toward sustainable, regionally balanced and equitable economic growth. 2.2 The project’s secondary objective is to improve financial institutions’ capacity to develop lending to SMEs. Besides providing immediate access to credit for SMEs, it is hoped that the proposed project will: (a) help banks and other financial intermediaries acquire better knowledge of the SME market and develop lower-cost lending instruments and technology, leading to further lending in the future; (b) be a pilot for defining credit conditions to SMEs; and (c) demonstrate — to the Government, international organizations and the financial sector — the feasibility and sustainability of lending to SMEs. 3. Preliminary description 3.1 The proposed project will finance the following two components: (1) a credit line targeting SMEs and (2) initiatives aimed at improving the financial information infrastructure to structurally increase access to credit for SMEs. For both components, it will also finance monitoring and evaluation activities. 16 The World Bank is also considering preparation of a Financial Sector Adjustment Program (FSAP) in collaboration with the IMF. 3.2. Credit line targeting SMEs (about US$100 million). The project will provide a medium-term credit line channeled through an Apex institution, which will in turn on-lend to commercial banks, leasing and factoring companies and state banks that have agreed on a restructuring or privatization plan with the World Bank. The design of the credit line will incorporate lessons learned in previous operations in Turkey and elsewhere with respect to selection of the Apex institution, pricing, project evaluation and targeting of end-clients. Turkey Sinai Kalkinma Bank (TSKB), a private development Bank that currently intermediates other WB credit lines (EFIL II and the upcoming EFIL III), is proposed as the sole Apex institution for the implementation of this project component. 17 As Apex, TSKB will directly assume the credit risk of the loan that it intermediates, if borrowing financial institutions were to fail to repay their loans. The final beneficiaries will be SMEs — roughly defined here as firms employing fewer than 250 people and having total assets and annual sales of less than US$10 million.18 There will be no sector restrictions. Outreach to underserved Regions will be strongly encouraged, possibly by dedicating part of the credit line (e.g., up to US$15 million) to specific areas through a pilot program. The credit line will finance medium- and long-term working capital and investment loans. Average and maximum loan sizes will be approximately US$500,000 and US$1 million, respectively. The pricing of the credit will be based on the World Bank’s funds’ costs plus TSKB’s on-lending margin, plus the financial intermediaries’ on-lending margins, plus the Government’s guarantee fee, plus any other applicable fees. The team is considering the possibility of lending to the GOT in both local and foreign currencies in order to better meet the needs of both non-exporting and exporting SMEs.19 The conditions will be finalized during the appraisal mission. 3.3. The proposed line will complement existing credit facilities provided by international financial institutions. Credit lines currently provided by international organizations total about US$1 billion.20 Most of these lines primarily target medium-to-large exporting firms, with average loan size per firm of about €2-3 million and maximum loan amounts of about €10-20 million. A few institutions, including KFW, TOBB and KOSGEB (through Halkbank), target very small firms, with maximum loans per firm of about €100,000. The proposed project will help fill the existing gap by targeting underserved small and medium firms (including non-exporting firms) with average and maximum loan sizes of approximately US$500,000 and US$1 million, respectively. 17 After a recent evaluation, which is available upon request, the team decided against including other proposed institutions as Apexes. 18 This definition will be adapted to ensure inclusion of SMEs in various sectors. For background on the definitions of SMEs currently in use in Turkey, refer to SPO, 2004: SME Strategy and Action Plan, page 26. For the World Bank’s definitions of SMEs, see: http://ifcnet2.ifc.org/sme/metrics/html/data.html. For the European Commission’s definition of SMEs, see: Commission of the European Communities, 2004: Working Paper SEC (2005) 170, page 6. 19 See World Bank (2000). “Proposal to Introduce Local Currency Financial Products” (R2000-232) and the website: www.worldbank.org/fps/hedging.htm 20 Treasury, 2004. A list of existing credit lines, including the donors, the local Apex institution, final beneficiary financial institutions, average loan size and amount disbursed to date is available upon request. 3.4. Initiatives aimed at improving the financial information infrastructure (about US$10 million). Possible initiatives to be financed under this project component include improvements of:21 a. Credit information systems (about US$1.5 million); b. The collateral regime (about US$5 million); and c. Auditing and financial statements requirements and financial transparency of SMEs (about US$3.5 million). This component is aimed at identifying key issues in the Turkish financial information infrastructure and supporting a few selected initiatives, which could be complemented as needed by the upcoming adjustment operation (see paragraph 1.7). To improve credit information systems, this project would finance: Technical assistance to develop a new legal and regulatory framework for credit information. The current framework — as defined by Article 9 of the Banking Law — is very vague and is likely to become untenable in the future because: (a) it is inconsistent with the EU Data Protection Directive; (b) it does not provide protection against the threat of lawsuits, which are likely to increase, particularly on the part of firms; and (c) it is not suited to addressing increasing consumer pressure. Specific current policies limiting distribution of the Central Bank’s data — particularly bad checks and protested documents — to regulated financial institutions only should also be reviewed. Review and modernization of the credit bureau operated by the Central Bank, combined with support to ensure better integration between the Central Bank’s credit bureau, the private bureau and the information system operated by the Supervisory Authority. First, the project proposes to evaluate the potential for complementing the information collected by existing bureaus, to avoid overlap and duplication. Second, the project would provide specific support to improve the Central Bank’s bureau, which has clear limits with regards to provision of timely access to historical data, quality of data analysis, and information on the status of loans as they evolve over time. The project could finance a review of the current systems, data and procedures; modifications to the reporting format; and adoption of new technologies to improve the existing database and facilitate secure access for supervisors. Evaluation of the potential to provide open access to data from the courts, including the enforcement court (Icra Tetkik Mercii), as well as information on unpaid obligations with the Government, including taxes. The project would convene a task force to evaluate international experiences with making some of this data public and to suggest next steps for reforming the legal and court’s system for sharing data. Review of and, if necessary, support for the computerization of TOBB’s corporate registry data, which is much needed to complete the databases of both the Central Bank’s credit bureau and the private credit bureau.22 To improve the collateral regime, this project would finance: Review of the legal and regulatory frameworks on collateral (both for movable assets and for real estate). A more detailed diagnostic of the current status of Turkey’s financial infrastructure is available upon request. Note that Finar, a business reporting firm, is already computerizing the TOBB gazettes. Its work should be analyzed to learn from Finar’s experiences before developing this project sub-component. 21 22 Modernization of collateral registries, including possible development of moveable collateral registries. First, this component would finance a consulting study to identify priorities for reform. Second, it could finance computerization of records and connection of existing land registries, as well as the creation of a moveable collateral registry. To improve auditing and financial statement requirements and the financial transparency of SMEs, the project would finance: Modernization of the regulatory regime regarding SME financial reporting, in line with the requirements of EU Company Law directives; enhancement of the institutional framework to ensure adequate implementation of the financial reporting requirements; and development of market incentives to ensure SMEs’ compliance with the new requirements. Technical assistance (TA) to help SMEs improve their capacity to prepare sound financial statements. The TA would be provided in collaboration with local banks and chambers of commerce. The project will also finance a baseline study and development of a monitoring system to assess the impact of both components throughout the life of the project. 4. Safeguard policies that might apply Environmental Assessment Policies (OP/BP 4.01) will apply to the first project component (credit line for SMEs). TSKB will be responsible for ensuring that the sub-projects financed under this operation are consistent with Turkish environmental laws and with World Bank environmental policies (as defined by OP/BP 4.01). TSKB is already performing this function for the two complementary loans EFIL II and EFIL III. 5. Tentative financing Source: BORROWER INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT ($m.) 0 110 Total 6. Contact point Contact: Marialisa Motta Title: Senior Private Sector Development Spec. Tel: (202) 458-7563 Fax: (202) 522-3687 Email: [email protected] 110