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Transcript
SEA LEVEL RISE:
A California Perspective
Julie Thomas
Coastal Data Information Program
Southern California Ocean Observing System
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
May 3, 2011
“I’ve been plagued with
worry over rising water
levels, so….”
Do our federal, state and local communities
take sea level rise seriously?
The Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on
the California Coast
by the Pacific Institute
March 2009
110,000 people
at risk in Orange
County
Population vulnerable to a 100 year
Coastal flood with a 1.4 m sea-level rise
• Flooding and erosion already pose a threat to
communities along the California coast and
there is compelling evidence that these risks will
increase in the future.
• In areas where the coast erodes easily, sea –
level rise will likely accelerate shoreline
recession due to erosion.
• Recommend that Climate change must be
integrated into the design of all coastal
structures. Future development should be
limited in areas that are at risk from rising seas.
http://www.pacinst.org/reports/sea_level_rise
California Coastal Commission: Current
Approaches to Addressing Sea Level Rise
Through Planning, Permitting and Partnerships
Western Coastal Program Managers Meeting
January 5, 2011
Michelle Jesperson, Federal Programs Manager
California Coastal Commission
Local communities are beginning to address sea level
rise in their General Plans.
Combined Effect of Sea Level Rise, Ocean Warming Events,
Tides and Waves
Elevation
Maximum Potential Inundation Elevation
8m
+Extreme Wave Runup
5m
Episodic Risk Factors
+ ENSO
+ PDO
3m
+Extreme High Tide
Sea Level
Today
Ice Loss
0m
Long-Term Risk Factors
California
Today
California in
2100
Federal & State Sponsored Monitoring
•Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP)
•Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing
System (SCCOOS)
Coastal Data Information Program
35 years of monitoring
Waves on the West Coast.
Ocean Beach Feb
1983
Storm and El Niño enhanced sea levels during
an extreme tide
Collecting Shoreline Change data for
Southern California
• Predicting sea level rise impacts includes consideration
of tides, wave height, terrestrial elevation and runup.
LIDAR (Light Detection & Ranging)
an optical remote sensing technology
Elevation map
Alamitos
Bay
Seal
Beach
Magenta = Sea Level
Dark red = 5 m elevation
Maps are available :
cdip.ucsd.edu/scbps
Data are available for download :
http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/
Feb 2010
LIDAR (Light Detecting Radar)
Elevation difference map
Between Sep 2004 &
Feb 2010.
Alamitos
Bay
Seal
Beach
Dark red = 2m erosion
Dark blue = 2m accretion
CDIP – Assessment of Shoreline Change
California Energy Commission – 2050 Report
Selected low-lying areas were
chosen for the Report
depicting the effects of Sea
Level Rise:
Oceanside
Del Mar
Mission Bay
Point Loma
Coronado
Imperial Beach
San Diego Foundation
Imperial Beach – 2100
(waves not included)
Ca Energy Commision
Imperial Beach – 2050
(waves are included)
* Effects of erosion or accretion
are not included.
Photo: John Gastaldo / Union-Tribune
During a January 2001 storm, Chris Hanzely employed
alternate means of transport on Mission Boulevard in the
low-lying beach area, while John Van Doren sought high
ground to record the scene.
Open Coast Flooding
& FLOODING
Erosion Risk Assessment
: Pacific Region
COASTAL
& EROSION
Automated Warnings of Highway Flooding
Torrey Pines State Beach – Nov. 2001
Erosion problems now  It WILL get worse  How much worse?!
El Niño + Large Waves + High Tides +Runup + Sea Level Rise
Planning for Impact & a Resilient Future Environment
Encinitas - 2002
–
–
–
–
Encinitas - 2011
Mapping/monitoring
Comprehensive floodplain management
Identifying land at risk
Develop decision-making methodology to
determine whether to:
• Fortify or rebuild damaged infrastructure;
• Reduce the footprint of vulnerable or damaged
infrastructure; or
• Abandon and relocate critical infrastructure.
California Coastal Conservancy/Ocean Protection Council
As baseline for planning,
surveyed the California
Coast with both bathymetric
and topographic LIDAR,
up to the 20 meter
Contour
Sept 2010
Partnering Organizations are in the process of
surveying coastal communities to help build
technical capacity to address climate change.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sea Grant
Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University
Susanne Moser Research & consulting
California Ocean Protection/Ocean Science Trust
NOAA
San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research
Reserve
• San Francisco Bay Conservation & Development
• California Coastal Commission
• RISA & SCCOOS
March 6,
2011
SUMMARY
1. FEDERAL, STATE and
Municipalities are
starting to plan for
Climate Change. Is it
being taken seriously?
2. Sea Level Rise is one
component that needs
to be addressed.
How to build resilient communities ?