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Solutions to Problems Chapter 29 1a. A decrease in government expenditures leads to a decrease in aggregate demand, which in turn sets up a process in which real GDP starts to decrease and the price level starts to fall. The decrease in government expenditures has a multiplier effect on aggregate demand. Aggregate demand decreases and shifts the AD curve in figure 1(a) leftward by $50b from AD0 to AD0/. Real GDP begins to decrease and the price level starts to fall towards the new equilibrium a//. 1b. Real GDP decreases and the interest rate falls. In the first round, real GDP begins to decrease and the price level begins to fall. In the second round, as real GDP decreases the demand for money decreases from MD0 to MD1 in figure 1(b). As the price level falls, the quantity of real money increases from MS0 to MS1 in figure 1(b). As a result, the interest rate falls from 5% to 4%. The fall in the interest rate limits the decrease in real GDP. 1c. As the interest rate falls, interest-sensitive expenditure increases from $100b to $112b in figure 1(c). 1d. The increase in interest-sensitive expenditure increases aggregate demand and the aggregate demand curve starts to shift rightward from AD0/ to AD1 in figure 1(a). This second-round increase in aggregate demand is less than the initial decrease. With an increase in investment and other interest sensitive expenditure of $12b the AD curve in figure 1(a) will move to the right by $24b to AD1. 1e. In the long run the equilibrium will be at potential real GDP. Comparing the final equilibrium with the initial equilibrium, the decrease in government expenditures on goods and services has lead to a decrease in real GDP, a fall in the price level, and a fall in the interest rate. The new equilibrium real GDP is $580b and the price level of 97.5. Unless this is potential real GDP this is a short-run equilibrium, long-run equilibrium is at potential real GDP. Note: Apart from the initial decrease in aggregate demand to $550b the rest of the figures for GDP and price level have no exactness. Their values will depend on the relative interest rate elasticities of money demand and interest sensitive expenditure. Price level (GDP deflator) Fiscal Policy – Problem 1 SAS 100 •a 95 a / •a // •b • AD0/ AD1 AD0 550 580 600 Real GDP ($billions) Figure 1(a) Interest rate Interest rate Fiscal Policy – Problem 1 MS0 MS1 5 •a 5 •b 4 a • •b 4 MD0 IE MD1 400 100 410 Real money ($billions) Figure 1(b) 112 Interest sensitive expenditure ($billions) Figure 1(c) 3a. A decrease in the money supply raises the interest rate. . A decrease in the money supply with a constant price level decreases the real money supply and shifts the real money supply curve in figure 3(a) leftward. The interest rate rises from 5% to 6%. 3b. The increase in the interest rate decreases planned investment. The higher interest rate decreases interest-sensitive expenditure by $25 billion, from $100b to $75b in figure 3(b). 3c. Aggregate planned expenditure falls by twice the decrease in interest-sensitive expenditure when the multiplier is two. The decrease in interest-sensitive expenditure decreases aggregate demand and shifts the AD curve leftward by $50b, from AD0 to AD0/ in figure 3(c). The decrease in interest-sensitive expenditure has a multiplier effect of two on aggregate demand. 3d. Real GDP decreases and the interest rate falls. In the second round, the decreasing real GDP decreases the demand for money. The money demand curve in figure 3(a) shifts leftward from MD0 to MD1 and the interest rate begins to fall from 6%. The falling price level increases the supply of real money and the real money supply curve shifts rightward from MS 0/ to MS1. The interest rate falls further to 5.3%. As the interest rate falls, interest-sensitive expenditure increases from $75b to $90b in figure 3(b). The increase in interestsensitive expenditure increases aggregate demand and the aggregate demand curve starts to shift back to the right from AD 0/ to AD1. But aggregate demand increases by less than the initial decrease in aggregate demand. 3e. At the new equilibrium, the fall in aggregate demand is less than initially. In the first round, real GDP begins to decrease and the price level begins to fall. In the second round, as real GDP decreases the demand for money decreases. As the price level falls, the quantity of real money increases. As a result, the interest rate falls. The fall in the interest rate limits the decrease in interest-sensitive expenditure and limits the decrease in real GDP. 6.0 •a Interest rate Interest rate Monetary Policy – Problem 3 MS0/ MS1 MS0 / •b 5.3 5.0 •a 6.0 •b 5.3 a • / 5.0 a • IE MD0 MD1 75 400 350 Real money ($billions) Figure 3(a) 90 100 Interest sensitive expenditure ($billions) Figure 3(b) Price level (GDP deflator) Monetary Policy – Problem 3 SAS 100 97 •a / •a •b // •a AD AD0/ AD1 0 550 585 600 Figure 3(c) 5a. A given change in the quantity of real money supplied has a larger effect on real GDP in economy B, the economy with the less elastic demand for money. Economy A has the more elastic (interest rate sensitive) demand for money function. Consider a decrease in the money supply of $100 billion in figure 5(a). Because the demand for money is more interest rate sensitive in economy A, the interest rate needs to rise by less to restore equilibrium in the money market than it does in economy B. The impact of monetary policy on real GDP is through its effect on interest rate sensitive components of aggregate demand. Because the interest rate rises by less in economy A, other things remaining the same, investment falls by less so there is a similar impact on aggregate demand. Economy B in figure 5(a) shows the largest fall in aggregate demand. 5b. The increase in government expenditure has a larger impact on real GDP in economy A, the economy with the more elastic demand for money. The effect of a change in government expenditure on goods and services occurs through its direct impact on aggregate demand. But this is party offset by the induced change in interest rates affecting interest rate sensitive components of aggregate demand as real GDP changes. As government expenditure increases, the AD curve shifts to the right, increasing real GDP and the price level in the short run, at given interest rates. But as real GDP increases, so does the demand for money. And as the price level increases the quantity of real money decreases; see figure 5(b). The interest rate rises by more in economy B than it does in economy A. Thus, there is a larger induced fall in planned investment in economy B than in economy A. If interest sensitive spending falls by $5 billion in economy A, then it will fall by $20 billion in economy B; see figure 5(b). The increase in government expenditure has a larger impact in economy A than in economy B.. 5c. The crowding-out effect is weaker in economy A. Crowding out refers to the offsetting effects on interest sensitive expenditure of an induced increase in interest rates following an increase in government purchases. Crowding out occurs more the greater the induced increase in interest rate from increased government spending. This induced change in the interest rate is larger the more inelastic is the demand for money; see figure 5(b). Thus, the crowding-out effect is weaker in economy A. . MS0 MS1 / 9 •b 6 • Interest rate Interest rate Effectiveness of Monetary Policy – Problem 5 a/ •b / 9 •a 6 •a 5 / • 5 a IE MDB MDA 100 400 300 Real money ($billions) 115 120 Interest sensitive expenditure ($billions) Figure 5(a) MS/ MS MDB MDB/ •b 5.8 / Interest rate Interest rate Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy – Problem 5 5.8 •b / MDA MDA/ 5.2 5.0 a/ • •a 5.2 •a / • 5.0 a IE 390 400 Real money ($billions) Figure 5(b) 100 115 120 Interest sensitive expenditure ($billions) Interest rate Interest rate Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy – Problem 6 MS1 MS0 6.5 6.0 b • 6.5 •a •a / • b/ •a 6.0 IEA MD IEB 115 320 300 Real money ($billions) 105 100 Interest sensitive expenditure ($billions) Figure 6(b) 7a. An increase in government expenditures and a decrease in taxes are expansionary fiscal policies. Aggregate demand increases in the first round. Real GDP and the price level begin to increase. In the second round, the increasing real GDP increases the demand for money and the interest rate rises. The rising price level decreases the supply of real money and increases the interest rate further. Interest-sensitive expenditure decreases and limits the increase in real GDP. The decrease in interest-sensitive expenditure includes a decrease in investment and net exports. An increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate, increases interest-sensitive expenditure and increases aggregate demand in the first round. Real GDP and the price level begin to increase. In the second round, increasing real GDP increases the demand for money and the interest rate rises. The rising price level decreases the supply of real money and the interest rate rises further. The decrease in interest-sensitive expenditure limits the increase in real GDP. The resulting increase in interest-sensitive expenditure includes an increase in investment and net exports. 7b. The expansionary fiscal policies raise the interest rate and the interest-sensitive expenditure component of aggregate demand decrease. The exchange rate rises, exports decrease, imports increase, and net exports decrease. An increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate and the interest-sensitive expenditure component of aggregate demand increase. The exchange rate falls, exports increase, imports decrease, and net exports increase. 7c. All policies increase real GDP and raise the price level. 7d. The best policy is to decrease interest rates. Increasing the money supply results in a lower interest rate and lowers the exchange rate. The lower interest rate increases investment and lowers the exchange rate increasing net exports. 9a. A combination of an increase in the money supply and a decrease in government expenditures. 9b. An increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate and increases interest-sensitive expenditure including investment. The aggregate demand curve shifts rightward. A decrease in government expenditures decreases aggregate demand and shifts the aggregate demand curve leftward. Real GDP decreases, the interest rate decreases, and interest-sensitive expenditure, including investment, increases. If the decrease in government expenditures is of the correct magnitude, the leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve will offset the rightward shift created by the increase in the money supply. The price level will remain the same. 9c. The lower interest rate will increase investment and consumption expenditure and the lower exchange rate will increase exports. 9d. In the short run, real GDP and the price level do not change. The aggregate demand curve remains the same—only the composition of aggregate demand changes. In the long run, the increase in investment will encourage economic growth. Real GDP growth will increase and the price level will remain the same.