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International Tropical Timber Organization INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS CENTER,5TH FLOOR, PACIFICO-YOKOHAMA1-1-1, MINATO-MIRAI, NISHI-KU, YOKOHAMA, 220-0012, JAPAN [email protected] Tropical Timber Market Report 1 – 15th February 2004 Contents International Log Prices Domestic Log Prices International Sawnwood Prices Domestic Sawnwood Prices International Ply and Veneer Prices Domestic Ply and Veneer Prices Other Panel Product Prices Prices of Added Value Products Furniture and Parts Report From Japan Report From China Update from France Report from Holland Abbreviations and Currencies Appendix: Price Trends Economic Data Sources p2 p2 p3 p5 p6 p8 p8 P9 p9 p10 p13 p15 p18 p20 HEADLINES Loreto region a new centre for the Peruvian timber industry. Page 2 New campaign, Italian design on tour. Page 16 Demand for building materials slows in Japan. Page 10 Denmark highest furniture export: production ratio of W Europe. Page 16 Upped freight rates and bunker oil prices hit importers. Page 11 Commodity prices up all round. Page 12 Japan's imports slowed in 2003. Page 12 Forecasts of increase in furniture consumption in France. Page 15 European Panel Federation optimistic on the wood-based panels in Europe. Page 17 Dutch trade mulls Malaysian currency peg. Page 18 Meranti prices under more pressure because of weaken dollar. Page 19 1 Myanmar International Log Prices Sarawak Log Prices FOB Meranti SQ up small super small Keruing SQ up small super small Kapur SQ up Selangan Batu SQ up per Cu.m US$155-165 US$125-135 US$95-10% US$140-145 US$110-115 US$80-85 US$140-150 US$140-145 Francophone West African Log Prices FOB Afromosia/Assamela Acajou/N'Gollon Ayous/Obeche Azobe Bibolo/Dibtou Fromager/Ceiba Iroko Limba/Frake Moabi Padouk Sapelli Sipo/Utile Tali Doussie LM B BC/C Euro per Cu.m 381 350 175 152 175 160 106 152 145 114 145 106 114 114 274 228 160 122 107 99 221 198 206 168 259 244 206 259 244 144 129 91 427 335 274 Padauk No sale Euro600 Domestic Log Prices Brazil Logs at mill yard Mahogany Ist Grade Ipe Jatoba Guaruba Mescla(white virola) per Cu.m No Sales US$67 US$43 US$28 US$35 Indonesia Gabon Okoume Grade per Cu.m CI US$150 CE US$122 CS US$95 QS US$176 Okoume for China 40% CI, 40% CE, 20% CS (Free alongside) Veneer Quality FOB per Hoppus Ton December January 2nd Quality No sale No sale 3rd Quality Euro41 No sale 4th Quality Euro3075 Euro3341 Teak Logs Sawing Quality per Hoppus Ton Grade 1 Average Euro1985 Euro1941 Grade 2 Average Euro1599 Euro1628 Grade 3 Average Euro684 Euro618 Grade 4 Average Euro1027 Euro957 Assorted Euro675 Euro628 US$200 Domestic log prices Plywood logs Face Logs Core logs Sawlogs (Merantis') Falkata logs Rubberwood Pine Mahoni per Cu.m US$70-80 US$45-60 US$80-90 US$90-95 US$60-62 US$75-80 S$500-515 2 Peninsula Malaysia International Sawnwood Francophone West Africa Logs Domestic (SQ ex-log yard) per Cu.m DR Meranti US$180-185 Balau US$165-175 Merbau S$190-200 Rubberwood US$65-68 Keruing US$155-165 Ghana per Cu.m Wawa Odum Ceiba Chenchen Mahogany (Veneer Qual.) Sapele Makore (Veneer Qual.) US$32-38 US$35-175 US$27-53 US$29-57 US$47-160 US$47-140 FOB Okoume FAS GMS Standard and Better FAS Fixed Sizes Sipo FAS Standard Sizes FAS Fixed Sizes Sapelli FAS Dibtou FAS Standard Sizes FAS Fixed Sizes Iroko FAS GMS Scantlings Strips Khaya FAS GMS per Cu.m Euro 266 251 297 640 670 487 381 412 548 487 274 398 US$47-140 Brazil Peru Loreto Producers to up Exports The Loreto region in Peru is becoming an important centre for the Peruvian timber industry. Around 12% of the total 2003 wood and timber exports came from Loreto and the main species exported were Virola and Marupa for USA and Mexico market. Although production prospects are good for Loreto, exporters complain that they are hampered by shipping opportunities. Apparently only one vessel serves Loreto's port and only every two months with discharge in only Mexico (Tampico) and the USA (Houston and Port Everglades). FOB Belem/Paranagua Ports Export Sawnwood per Cu.m Mahogany KD FAS FOB UK market no trade Jatoba Green (dressed) US$540 Cambara KD US$450 Asian Market(green) Guaruba US$243 Angelim pedra US$265 Mandioqueira US$185 Pine (AD) US$120 3 Malaysia Exported Products Sawn Timber Export(FOB) per Cu.m White Meranti A & Up US$295-305 Seraya Scantlings (75x125 KD) US$540-550 Sepetir Boards US$175-185 K.Sesendok 25,50mm US$295-305 Ghana Export lumber, Air Dry FOB FAS 25-100mmx150mm and up 2.4m and up FOB Afromosia Asanfina Ceiba Dahoma Edinam Khaya Makore Odum Sapele Wawa Euro per Cu.m 855 480 180 300 360 480 449 580 480 300 Six products accounted for the bulk(93%) of exports in 2003: sawnwood, mouldings and flooring, plywood, furniture, veneers and wooden seats. The drop in export earnings is as a mainly the consequence of a reduction in the amounts of sawnwood exported (-14%) since sawnwood represents 65% of total export products. Of this, Mahogany sawnwood exports account for approximately 60% of the total sawnwood exported. Plywood, mouldings and wood flooring exports experienced a slight increase (+5.8%) but not the other processed products. Furniture, veneer and wooden seats just managed to maintain the same export value as the previous year. For 2004 and 2005 local analysts suggest that a dramatic drop in export earnings is likely because of the inclusion of Mahogany in Appendix III of CITES and that it will take concerted action by industry and the government to address the decline in export earnings in the timber sector. Exports Where Peru 2003 was not a good year for the Peruvian timber and wood product exporters. After 7 years of continuously growing exports (annual growth rates ranged from 10 to 35%) the figure for 2003 came in at minus 5%. Exports fell from US$113 million in 2002 to US$108 millions in 2003 and, according to some timber companies this negative trend could well continue if efforts are not made to reverse the trend. The USA is still the main market for Peru's wood products although, for 2003, there was a drop of 16% in export earnings from the USA. In second place is Mexico, a market which grew 10% because of an increase in export quotas of Virola from the Loreto region. China and Hong Kong are ranked third for export earnings with a surprising growing of 160% year on year. The Dominican Republic was a strong market but exports declined in 2003 and Italy became a significant growth market recording a 57%. 4 For US Market per Cu.m Mahogany 1C&B, KD 16% Central American market US$1150-1190 Mahogany 1C&B, KD 16% US market US$1170-1190 Spanish Cedar No.1 C&B, KD 16%, Central Am. Market US$620-640 Walnut 1" Thickness, 6' - 11' length US$620-650 Spanish cedar # 1 C&B, KD 16% Mexican marketUS$600-625 Pumaquiro 25-50mm AD Mexican market US$460-490 Virola 1" to 1 1/2 Thickness, 6' - 8' length, KD US$400-430 Lagarto 2" Thickness, 6' - 8' length US$340-355 Ishpingo 2" Thickness 6' - 8' length US$365-385 Timber for concrete formwork in construction, 4418909000 other carpentry pieces for wood construction. On December 31st 2003 details were published on the tariff reductions on imports from Chile (supreme decree No. 193-2003EF) through which the government introduced reductions on 1,111 tariff schedules, some of which included wood products which were previously taxed at 12%. Sawnwood (Green ex-mill) Northern Mills per Cu.m Mahogany No sales Ipe US$275 Jatoba US$201 Southern Mills Eucalyptus AD US$100 Pine (KD) First Grade US$131 The new tariff on these items is 7% of the CIF value of the imported products. Wooden products included are: 4406100000 Railway sleepers, 4406900000 The rest of railway sleepers, 4409101000 Non-assembled friezes for wood flooring made of conifers, 4409102000 Wood moldings made of conifers, 4409201000 Non-assembled friezes for wood flooring made different of conifers, 4409202000 Wood moldings different of conifers. Also included are: 4417009000 Mounts and handles for tools, 4418100000 Windows, counter windows and its frames and wood counter frames, 4418200000 Doors and its frames and wood lintels, 4418300000 Wood boards for wood flooring, 4418400000 These tariff reductions are the result of an agreement between Peru and Chile (ACE-38 Economic Complementation Agreement 1998) whereby both countries agreed a staggered reduction of tariffs over a 15-year period to eventually eliminate all the tariff barriers. Analysts point out that the Peruvian timber producers reacted negatively to these changes especially those dedicated to the domestic market because they compete against imported wood products from Chile. Domestic Sawnwood Prices Report from Brazil Report from Indonesia Sawn timber, ex-mill Domestic construction material Kampar AD 3x12-15x400cm KD AD 3x20x400cm KD Keruing AD 3x12-15cmx400 AD 2x20cmx400 AD 3x30cmx400 per cu.m US$200-210 US$280-290 US$305-315 US$320-330 US$225-230 US$220-225 US$230-235 5 Malaysia International Plywood and Veneer Price Indonesia Sawnwood per Cu.m Balau(25&50mm,100mm+) US$215-225 Kempas50mm by (75,100&125mm) US$165-175 Rubberwood 25x75x660mm up US$215-220 50-75mm Sq. US$225-235 100mm sq. US$235-245 Plywood (export, FOB) MR, Grade BB/CC 2.7mm 3mm 6mm per Cu.m US$250-255 US$220-230 US$160-165 Brazilian Plywood and Veneer Ghana FOB Belem/Paranagua Ports Sawnwood per Cu.m 50x100mm x 4.8m Wawa US$72 Emeri US$120 Dahoma US$144 Redwood US$144 Ofram US$96 50x75mm x 4.8m Dahoma US$160 Redwood US$128 Ofram US$96 Emeri US$115 Peru per Cu.m Mahogany Virola Spanish Cedar Catahua Tornillo US$1485-1490 US$180-195 US$630 US$172-177 US$347-358 Veneer FOB White Virola Face 2.5mm Pine Veneer (C/D) Mahogany Veneer 0.7mm Plywood FOB White Virola (US Market) 5.2mm OV2 (MR) 15mm BB/CC (MR) For Caribbean countries White Virola 4mm 12mm Pine EU market 9mm C/CC (WBP) 15mm C/CC (WBP) 18mm C/CC (WBP) per Cu.m US$195 US$145 per Sq.m No trade per Cu.m US$275 US$260 US$330 US$230 US$235 US$225 US$220 Malaysian Plywood MR Grade BB/CC FOB per Cu.m 2.7mm US$270-280 3mm US$225-230 9mm plus US$185-195 Domestic plywood 3.6mm 12-18mm US$235-250 US$180-200 6 Ghana Rotary Veneer Bombax, Chenchen, Kyere, Ofram, Ogea,Otie,Essa Ceiba Core Face 1mm+ 1mm+ Euro per Cu.m 290 225 Light Woods B/BB 4mm 6mm 9mm 12mm 15mm 18mm 500 340 290 270 280 245 352 265 250 230 240 230 340 280 The above prices are for full sized panels, falling sizes minus 15%. Grade AB/BB would attract a premium of 5%. BB/BB would be 5% less, C/CC would be 10% less and CC/CC would be 15% less. Peru Core Grade 2mm+ Ceiba Chenchen, Otie, Ogea, Ofram, Koto, Canarium per Cu.m US$300 US$360 Sliced Veneer Euro per Sq.m Afromosia Asanfina Avodire Chenchen Mahogany Makore Odum Face 1.19 1.14 0.92 0.72 1.03 1.01 1.54 Backing 0.69 0.73 0.51 0.44 0.65 0.60 0.92 FOB For Mexican Market per Cu.m Copaiba plywood, two faces sanded, B/C, 15x4x8mm US$310-340 Virola plywood, two faces sanded, b/c, 5.2mmx4x8 US$340-370 Lupuna plywood, treated, two faces sanded, 5.2mmx4x8 US$300-310 Lupuna plywood, b/c , 15mmx4x8 US$295-300 b/c, 9mmx4x8 US$310-320 b/c, 12mmx4x8 US$305-315 c/c 4x8x4 US$320-330 Veneer Prices Plywood Prices FOB Redwoods B/BB Euro per Cu.m WBP MR 4mm 560 460 6mm 340 310 9mm 315 290 12mm 300 280 15mm 310 285 18mm 300 275 FOB Lupuna 2.5mm Lupuna 4.2mm Lupuna 1.5mm per Cu.m US$195-200 US$205-215 US$225-255 7 Domestic Plywood Prices Domestic Prices Ex-mill Southern Region Blockboard 15mm White Virola Faced 15mm Mahogany Faced Brazil Rotary Cut Veneer (ex-mill Northern Mill) White Virola Face White Virola Core per Cu.m US$131 US$110 Plywood (ex-mill Southern Mill) Grade MR 4mm White Virola 15mm White Virola 4mm Mahogany 1 face US$269 No Trade US$167 Indonesia per Cu.m US$385 US$283 No trade Other Panels per Cu.m Export Particleboard FOB 9-18mm US$115-130 Domestic Particleboard 9mm US$140-150 12-15mm US$135-140 18mm US$125-135 Indonesia Domestic MR plywood (Jarkarta) 9mm 12mm 18mm Particleboard 15mm per Cu.m per Cu.m US$185-200 US$175-185 US$170-180 MDF Export (FOB) 12-18mm US$120-135 MDF Domestic 12-18mm US$145-165 Peru Malaysia Lupuna Plywood 122 x 244 x 4mm BB/CC 122 x 244 x 6mm BB/CC 122 x 244 x 8mm BB/CC 122 x 244 x 10mm BB/CC 122 x 244 x 12mm BB/CC 122 x 244 x 15mm BB/CC 122 x 244 x 18mm BB/CC per Cu.m US$410 US$405 US$396 US$388 US$387 US$387 US$386 Particleboard (FOB) Export per Cu.m 12mm & above US$130-140 Domestic 12mm & above US$130-145 MDF (FOB) per Cu.m Export 18-22mm Domestic Price 12-18mm Other Panel Product Prices US$180-185 US$180-195 Brazil FOB Belem/Paranagua Ports Export Prices Blockboard 18mm B/C Pine per Cu.m US$256 8 Peru Domestic Particleboard Prices Domestic per Cu.m 1.83m x 2.44m x 4mm US$302 1.83m x 2.44m x 6mm US$250 1.83m x 2.44m x 8mm US$215 1.83m x 2.44m x 9mm US$211 1.83m x 2.44m x 12mm US$194 Prices of Added Value Products 10x65/75mm Apa 14.47 Odum 10.18 Hyedua 18.22 Afromosia 13.93 14x70mm Apa 17.00 Odum 11.00 Hyedua 17.82 Afromosia 17.82 10x50mm/77mm Apa 10.99 Odum 8.50 Hyedua 13.67 Afromosia 12.59 Indonesia Peru Mouldings per Cu.m Laminated Boards Falkata wood US$295-305 Red Meranti Mouldings 11x68/92mm x 7ft up Grade A US$515-525 Grade B US$430-440 Malaysia Mouldings (FOB) per Cu.m Selagan Batu Decking US$535-545 Red Meranti Mouldings 11x68/92mm x 7ft up Grade A US$600-615 Grade B US$485-500 FOB per Cu.m Cabre uva KD S4S Asian Market US$800-900 Cumaru KD, S4S, (Swedish Market) US$630-645 Cumaru KD, S4S, (Asian Market) US$555-585 Pumaquiro KD # 1, C&B (Mexican market) US$465-480 Quinilla KD 12%, S4S 20mmx100mmx620mm (Asian market) US$575-585 Furniture and Parts Malaysia Ghana Parquet Flooring 10x60x300mm FOB Euro per Sq.m Apa 12.00 Odum 7.80 Hyedua 13.67 Afromosia 13.72 Semi-finished FOB each Dining table Solid rubberwood laminated top 3' x 5' with extension leaf US$21.5-22.5ea As above, Oak Veneer US$31-33ea Windsor Chair US$8-9.0ea Colonial Chair US$11.5-12.5ea Queen Anne Chair (with soft seat) without arm US$13-14ea with arm US$17.0-18ea 9 Rubberwood Chair Seat 27x430x500mm US$2.35-2.50ea Rubberwood Tabletop per Cu.m FOB 22x760x1220mm sanded and edge profiled Top Grade US$520-530 Standard US$475-485 Brazil For 2003, Brazil exported US$572.0 million of wooden furniture 24.9% more than in 2002. FOB Belem/Paranagua Ports Edge Glued Pine Panel per Cu.m for Korea 1st Grade US$480 US Market US$442 Decking Boards Cambara US$640 Ipe US$900 Report From Japan First increase in 3 Years Total new housing starts in 2003 were 1,160,083 units, 0.8% higher than 2002 and this is the first year-on-year increase in three years. Wood frame units increased by 3.9% to 523,192, which was the first gain after four years. The Japan Lumber Journal suggests that a boost was given to starts before the special tax break measures on housing loan interest expired. Housing starts were particularly strong in the heavily populated Tokyo metropolitan area. December's housing starts came in at 100,826, 9.4% higher than the same month a year ago. Preferential Duty The Japanese government is reported as having made changes in the rules for preferential duties following the enlargement plans in the EU. Eight countries including Baltic and some Eastern European countries will join the European Union from May this year. Those countries which join the EU will be excluded from the preferential duties previously applied. From May 1, 2004, Estonia, Slovakia, Czech, Hungary, Poland, Malta, Latvia and Lithuania no longer enjoy the preferential duties on the imports. The majority of European softwood products coming to Japan are either Whitewood or Red pine, and a 4.8-6.0% import duty will be imposed on these species for the products with thickness of 160 mm or less. The countries to which the preferential duties applied enjoyed duty free entry to the Japanese market. Building materials demand The demand for building materials is slowing down to levels seen last summer after a short boom in October and November. Even though the tax break measures on housing loan interest have been extended until the end of this year the impact is on the market in the medium term has been slight. Some analysts expect a recovery in the second half of the year but the rapid decline in demand has disappointed suppliers. The only relief is that prices for building materials are holding up despite the drop in demand. Analysts point out that while the cost of import panel products has fallen because of the stronger yen, offers from overseas manufacturers are still a bit limited so supply is on tighter side. Also, exporters are pushing up FOB prices. Particleboard The demand for decorative boards for kitchen cabinet and other panel items is reported as only steady. While the demand for new houses in recent months has been down demand for remodelling work is growing steadily. The demand for flooring panels is also reported as steady through 10 February although sales are off the peak period of last October. Fire damage at Taihei Industry's particleboard plant in early February resulted in lost production so other manufacturers benefited. This fire reduced the supply of particleboard by about 7% but prices remained unchanged despite the temporary supply disruption. This was because the trade expects the demand during the spring and summer to slow meaning that the supply and demand seems to be balancing out. MDF demand firm The MDF market is reporting steady demand for both thick and thin products. Demand in the furniture sector is down as many Japanese furniture manufacturers have moved their plants overseas. Thin MDF is gradually taking over the market once the domain of thin tropical hardwood plywood because MDF is competitively priced and because of perceived thin plywood supply problems. Domestic MDF manufacturers are running at full capacity but overall production rates are down because producing F 4star products lowers productivity rates. Imports of MDF have not been increasing because exporters have turned to other markets willingly take lower grades so overseas MDF are not bothering to produce much F 4star for Japan. In short, the supply of MDF has been tight from both domestic and overseas manufacturers. Log price negotiations resumed after the Chinese New Year holidays in Malaysia but with bullish suppliers and bearish Japanese buyers little progress has been made as yet. Japanese plywood mills keep a close eye on the supply of imported plywood and are generally trying to keep their log inventories down to the minimum while waiting for better logging weather in Sarawak. Once the weather improves there will be more log production and mills feel no need at present to rush in and buy high priced logs. The log importers in Japan had asked for a yen 100 per koku price rise for logs from plywood mills in January but, since the yen strengthened against the dollar, the market prices remain unchanged. In late January, Sarawak Meranti Regular prices on the local market were at about yen 5,250 per koku and Meranti Small prices were about yen 4,400 with Super Small at between yen 3,900- 4,000. Super Small Mixed Light Hardwoods were selling at about yen 3,300 while Kapur prices stayed at the high levels seen recently because of limited available and analysts talk of prices at yen 6,300 per koku. All imported products are experiencing escalating ocean freight costs which is another cost-push factor driving up the costs of importing. Rising ship charter rates and rising bunker oil prices are two reasons for the freight increases but also space availability is reported as very tight particularly as steel exports from Japan to South East Asian countries is currently very brisk. Tropical Logs Japanese wholesale prices remain flat and in Sarawak, the main supplier of tropical logs to Japan, heavy rain over the past weeks has slowed production. The exporters are bullish because of the limited logs on hand and are pushing up FOB prices for all species and grades. Shipping companies are reportedly asking for a US$3-4 per cubic metre increase in freight costs for March for Sarawak loadings (one port loading and two ports discharging with full load PNG freight (two ports loading and three ports discharging) is quoted at about US$35 per cubic metre but there are very little ships to and from PNG. 11 Plywood import in 2003 Total plywood imports in 2003 was 4,575,000 cubic metres, 8.3% less than in 2002. 2003 is the first year when total plywood imports fell below 4,600,000 cubic metres since 1998. The volume of plywood from Indonesia fell largely because mills were slow to adapt to the revised JAS rules. On the other hand, Malaysia responded quickly and with increased volumes. In fact, Malaysia boosted its export by 5% to 1,848,000 cubic metres, which was a record high. Indonesian exports dropped 17% to 2,241,000 cubic metres. When the new JAS rules were introduced in June last year, only six mills could deal with the revised rules in Indonesia. China's plywood exports to Japan were up 1.3% to 273,000 cubic metres in 2003. But Canada's exports showed a decline of 28% to only 73,800 cubic metres largely because of strong demand in the US market last year. The strong demand in the US resulted in higher prices for Japan as well as the limited offers. back into growth but the sector is not expecting too much of a change here and is looking at the demand for remodeling (including extensions) for its real growth. The Japanese economy has still not shed deflation yet and it remains to be seen how the Japanese market will adapt to the soaring prices of imports of wood products. Logs For Plywood Manufacturing CIF Price Yen per Koku Meranti (Hill, Sarawak) Medium Mixed 5,200 Meranti (Hill, Sarawak) STD Mixed 5,250 Meranti (Hill, Sarawak) Small Lot (SM60%, SSM40%) 4,100 Taun, Calophyllum (PNG) and others 4,500 Mixed Light Hardwood (PNG G3-G5 grade) 3,800 Okoume (Gabon) 6,800 Keruing (Sarawak) Medium MQ & up 7,000 Kapur (Sarawak) Medium MQ & up 6,400 Commodity Prices up all round Against the background of the recent rapid decline in the value of the dollar against world currencies and the surging Chinese wood consumption, as well as the increases in ocean freight costs, something unusual is happening in Japan. Prices for imported wood product from all sources are increasing to a point far beyond levels which fundamental demand in Japan would indicate. In contrast to the past times of the oil shocks of 1973 and the problems with wood supply in the early 1990's, the current drama in the market for wood products has its roots in a mix of factors which could continue to impact the Japanese market for some time. There are some sign of a recovery in the Japanese economy, but the recovery is still only tentative and is by no means strong. New housing starts appear to be clawing Logs For Sawmilling FOB Price Melapi (Sarawak) Select Agathis (Sarawak) Select Yen per Koku 8,800 8,600 Lumber FOB Price Yen per Cu.m White Seraya (Sabah) 24x150mm, 4m 1st grade 105,000 Mixed Seraya 24x48mm, 1.8-4m, S2S 42,000 For more information on the Japanese market please see www.n-mokuzai.com 12 Report from China Imports Slow in 2003 According to the latest statistics from China's Customs, in 2003 log imports totaled 25.46 million cubic metres valued at US$2.447 billion, a year on year increase of 4.6% in volume and 14.6% in value. However the rate of growth of log imports fell by around 40% in volume over the previous year. In 2003 China's sawnwood imports have been reported by Customs as 5.5117 million cubic metres valued at US$ 1.19 billion, a year on year increase of 2.1% in volume and 2.7% in value. But, as for logs, the rate of growth in sawnwood imports fell by 31% compared to the previous year. However, China's plywood imports enjoyed rapid growth and amounted to 800 000 cubic metres worth of US$ 355 million, a year on year increase of 25% in volume and 37% in value, a significant change on recent trends. However the survey also showed that some problems still exist with too many cases of over-cutting and the State Forestry Administration criticized some administrations which they concluded had allowed logging limits to be exceeded. Standard for Wood Frame Design It has been reported that a national standard for Wood Frame Design (Specification GB50005-2003) has been adopted aimed at standardizing and guiding wood frame timber and design requirements. The new standard is reported as effective as of January 1, 2004. The new specification, which was jointly issued by Ministry of Construction and State Bureau of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, covers guiding principles for wood frame construction and design. The China Office of the American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) was involved in the process of planning the new specification. Survey on Logging Limits In order to strengthen log harvesting controls, the State Forestry Administration recently investigated implementation of the 2002 logging limits in major provinces. The result of the inspection showed that in the areas examined, total harvest volume had not exceeded logging limits. The total volume of actual logging was 3.30 million cubic metres in the areas examined and accounted for 65% of the allowable limit. There were individual instances of overlogging representing 6.5% of inspected areas but this was on the previous year. The survey concluded that the volume of commercial forest logging did not exceed that of planned timber production plan as a whole. The survey also concluded that the level of logging management had improved considerably. The group that developed the new standard has apparently begun to draft a "Wood Frame Design Manual" which is a supplement to the wood frame design and construction specification. This could be published in the second half of 2004 say local analysts. Both initiatives coincide with the launching of programmes for the 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2010 Shanghai World Expo, and are consistent with efforts to deliver high standard housing. Matthew Brady, General Manager of the AF&PA office in China is on record as saying that the new specification will provide new choices for China's consumers in terms of housing and interior decoration and will help in improving living standards. GDP Details China's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2003 hit yuan 11.6694 trillion (US$1.414 13 trillion), up 9.1 per cent over the previous year. The rise in GDP represented the highest growth since 1997, according to preliminary estimates from Li Deshui, Director of China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Per capita GDP broke new highs at US$1,090, indicating that China's economic development has entered a new era. This achievement was a hard-won success after the outbreak of SARS and several natural disasters. Per capita incomes of rural residents was recorded at came to yuan 2 622, a year on year increase of 4.3%. In 2003 the value-added by primary industries was yuan 1725 billion. The valueadded by the secondary industies came to yuan 6177.8 billion or 2.7 percentage higher than 2002. The equivalent for the tertiary industries stood at yuan 3566.9 billion or 0.8 percentage lower than 2002. It was the strong growth of industrial production that contributed to national economic development. The country's fixed asset investment grew by 26.7 % to yuan 5511.8 billion and it is this rapid growth of investment that has been the main driving force for economic development. Guangzhou City Imported Timber Market Logs Yuan per Cu.m Radiata Logs 6m 26cmdia 760-780 Luan Logs 1450-1600 Merbau 6m 60cm dia 1800-2400 Kapur/Keruing 60cm+ dia 1600 Beech 30cm Veneer Qual. 1850 Teak 50cm+ dia 7550-14800 Less than 50cm dia 6500-7000 Sawnwood Teak Boards Maple 2"KD Cherry 2" Yuan per Cu.m 7800-14500 7500-7900 12550-14500 Plywood Plywood 3mm Yuan per sheet 22-33 Shanghai Furen Wholesale Market Logs Tamalan (Laos) Africab Black Wood Paduk Yuan per Cu.m 5300-5500 11000-13000 15000-22000 Sawnwood Keruing Beech KD Cherry Oak 5cm Teak Tamalan Sapele Manchurian Ash yuan per Cu.m 3300 3900-5400 13800 4700-9000 9500-13000 6600 6300 3300 Hebei Shijiangzhuang Wholesale Market Logs Korean Pine 4m 38cm dia Mongolian Scots Pine 4m 30+cm dia 6m 30+cm dia Yuan per Cu.m 1350 800-830 800-925 Sawnwood Mongolian Scots Pine 4m 5-6cm thick 1150 4m 10cm thick 1100-1150 Plywood Yuan per sheet Indian Panel 1220x2440 24 Malaysian Panel 1220x2440 21 14 Jiangsu Xuzhou Wholesale Market Logs Yuan per Cu.m Manchurian ash 4m 30+cm dia 1780-2000 Mongolian Scots Pine 6m 24+ cm 850-100 Sawnwood Mangolian Scots Pine 4m 4-6cm Lauan plywood 1220x2440 3mm 7mm 9mm 11mm 1050 Yuan per sheet 15-36 21-32 30-45 38-55 For information on China's forestry try: www.forestry.ac.cn A Update from France The Banque of France has recently revised the economic growth rate for the country and is now expecting that the initial forecast will be exceeded by 0,3% resulting a growth of 0,7% for the first quarter. With regard to the furniture sector, the "World Furniture Outlook 2004" by CSIL forecasts an increase in furniture consumption by +2% for France (it was -1% in 2003). France is fourth largest furniture producer in Europe and accounts for a share of 10% of total European production. France is the third largest furniture trading country in Europe with main significant market share in Germany, Spain, Belgium and the UK. French furniture imports come mainly from Italy, followed by Germany, Belgium and Spain. 2003 saw an increasing share of imported wood furniture from Brazil. In respect of furniture consumption France the fourth largest in Europe but annual per capita furniture consumption is only Euro 155, well below the European of Euro 188. Consumer Attitudes According recent consumer analysis, French consumers have been facing a negative economic scenario with uncertainties at the socio-political level. However, despite the past gloomy outlook French consumers consider the general situation of the country in line with the European average and they show "no illusions and no despair". In general French consumers are reported as trusting in the European Union, although over 50% in a survey said the switch to the Euor brought considerable inconvenience. The same analytical report says French and Belgians are what it terms "happy consumers", since they consider buying a pleasure (93% of the statistical sample). But, the report says, they fear "temptations" and appear to be more impulsive buyers than the average European consumer. It was clear from the analysis that French consumers prefer to buy French products and are quick to change purchasing locations when unsatisfied. With regard to purchasing on the Internet, French consumers are reportedly still showing a low degree of interest in this form of purchasing. Meeting Point Paris The International Furniture Fair "Salon du Meuble de Paris" (8-12 January) opened the 2004 furniture fair season with a new face. The fair organisers created four "Grand Marché" nodes where furniture manufacturers and distributors could meet and discuss business. This year's fair was attended by a selection of exhibitors who were particularly innovative in terms of products, price positioning the development of a strategy for the competitive European market. The styles ranged from "Jeune Habitat" (Young Living) to top-end contemporary, including: classic, modern, mass market furniture and bedding. There were two other groups where the atmosphere and image of la "Metropole 15 2004" is the future was dominant, while the "Ville-Age" put an accent on classic and the art of decoration "French style". News from other European countries Company News "Italian Design on Tour" is the selection, certfication and promotion of best Italian design products, under the patronage of the Italian Ministery of Culture in collaboration with the Design Museum in Milan. A specialist group will evaluate the 100 most interesting designed products for a tour during 2004 and 2005, thus giving these products great visibility and representing a new opportunity for the Italian designs. The new I.DoT project 2004-2005 will travel to New York, Chicago, London, Berlin, Prague, Madrid, Bombay and Tokyo. Cassina in Paris The Italian manufacturer of upper-end designer furniture, Cassina, has moved from its "historical" location in Paris on the R. Droite to a brand new showroom on the R. Gauche, in the heart of the Latin Quarter. French consumers welcomed the opening of this 640 sq.m. large showroom, where glass, crystal, steel, resin and wood blend perfectly to form an attractive layout full of light and space. The location was designed by Piero Lisson and will host furniture collections by Cassina and Alias and will house a documentation section and be suitable for temporary events and exhibitions. Vitra presents The English designer Jasper Morrison was the guest at the presentation of the new office furniture system " ATM " at the Vitra showroom in Paris. ATM, which means Advanced Table Module, roots its design in the "collective common sense", that is to say: a functional, essential, transformable, integrated office system with options for storage and organisation as well a full range of accessories and a new system to deal with cables. Conforama Goes East Conforama, a leading French furnishing retailer wants to further strengthen its presence outside France where the group already accounts for over 30% of total sales. With a strong development strategy in mind, Conforama's Italian brand Emmezeta (17 stores in Italy) opened a new outlet in Split, which represents the third store of the group in Croatia. With a total floor space 9000 sq. m., the new store has some 190 employees and is located in the largest trade centre of the Dalmatian region. Italian Design on Tour Wenig Expands The Weinig Group, the number one German manufacturer of woodworking machines for solid wood processing acquired a 70% share of the US company Control Logic Inc., a specialist in software solutions for wood optimising processes and scanner technology. The company boasts a leading position on the North American market. A noticeable increase in business is expected from this acquisition. Weinig, with its head office in Tauberbishofsheim, Germany has a production plant in China and subsidiaries in UK, Sweden, Singapore, Australia and Japan. Danish Exports According to the CSIL Multiclient Report "The furniture industry in Western Europe", Denmark is a small player in furniture sector except where exports are concerned as here it is the fourth ranked exporter in Western Europe, it is also the sixth largest furniture producer. In fact, Denmark has the highest export/production ratio of Western European countries at 84% and also the highest exports and production per capita in the furniture sector. Denmark also has the 16 second largest balance of trade surplus after Italy. The Western European market absorb 85% of Danish exports and the major markets for Danish furniture remaina Germany, which absorbs 30% of total exports. According to data from the Association of Danish Furniture Industry, furniture exports to Germany increased a further 1% in 2003 over 2002. In order to maintain its leading position in the German market, a group of 40 Danish furniture manufacturers attended the furniture fair "imm cologne" in January 2004. Over recent years there has been a particularly significant increase in furniture exports to the United Kingdom also. Nordic countries absorb 18% of Danish exports, half of which are consumed in Sweden and Norway. Optimism in Panel Sector According to the European Panel Federation (EPF) members are finding reasons to be more optimistic on the wood-based panels industry in Europe. Since 2000, EU GDP growth has been falling but now the forecast for 2004 point to a recovery and a return to higher growth of as much as 2%, accelerating to 2.4% in 2005. The year 2004 is expected to see renewed economic growth and regained consumer confidence, supporting a recovery of the construction and furniture markets. The resulting demand for wood-based panels will bring further innovation in the production and application of particleboard, MDF and OSB says the EPF. MDF and OSB could well be at the forefront of the market, while particleboard industries could reaffirm their leading positioning in Europe. News from the UK The Bank of England has raised the interest rates and the forecasts are for the rate to reach 5% by year end. House prices which have risen sharply over the past 3 years continue to rise but more slowly. The increases in taxation levels in the UK are said to be well ahead of inflation and analysts fear that in the not to distant future consumer spending, especially on household furniture make take a hit. Tropical hardwood importers are as analysts say "keeping their heads down" as tropical forest devastation stories fill the newspapers. Log Prices in the UK FOB plus commission Sapele 80cm+LM-C Iroko 80cm+LM-C N'Gollon70cm+ LM-C Ayous 80cm+LM-C per Cu.m Euro 245-255 Euro 315-325 Euro 205-215 Euro 200-215 UK Sawnwood Prices FOB plus Commission per Cu.m Brazilian Mahogany FAS Teak 1st Quality 1"x8"x8' Stg2035-2350 Tulipwood FAS 25mm Stg340-355 Cedro FAS 25mm Stg425 DR Meranti Sel/Btr 25mm Stg325-350Keruing Std/Btr 25mm Stg240-260 SapeleFAS 25mm Stg335-345 Iroko FAS 25mm Stg410-440 Khaya FAS 25mm Stg355-370 Utile FAS 25mm Stg400-415 Wawa No1. C&S 25mm Stg210-215 17 Plywood and MDF in the UK CIF per Cu.m Brazilian WBP BB/CC 6mm US$500 " Mahogany 6mm When last available US$1265 Indonesian WBP 6mm US$460-500 Eire, MDF BS1142 12mm per 10 Sq.m CIF Stg35.35 For more information on the trends in the UK market please see www.ttjonline.com Report from Holland Holiday Lull Still Netherlands' trade in Dark Red Meranti and Merbau with Malaysia during the first half of February was very much influenced by the Chinese New Year festive holidays in Malaysia. As a result, only a handful of offers were received by Dutch importers, just about matching the sporadic enquiries by some importers. It is generally expected by the trade that this quiet situation will linger on for at least the coming weeks. The stock/unsold position held by exporters is reportedly on the low side but this will not impact much as the buying interest amongst Dutch importers is equally low as it has been for many months. This also applies to those countries that have a fixed exchange rate with the dollar. In this respect it came as some relief to the Dutch timber trade when the Governor of the Malaysian Central Bank (Bank Negara) announced that, for the time being anyway, there would be no changes in the current peg of Malaysian ringgit to the dollar. As a result of the peg, the current low dollar is a stimulant for Malaysian exports. Importers in Holland are, of course, happy that the peg does not change at the moment. Should the exchange rate be amended from its current 3,8 Ringgit into US$ 1 by say (some even speculate 20%) the rate would change, for example, to 3,25 to US$ 1 and the consequence of that would be an overnight increase in timber prices by the same proportion. The following example illustrates the impact. Suppose that importers have unshipped outstanding orders with exporters for say KD Dark Red Bukit 3 x 5" PHND at USD980 per ton CNF Rotterdam. The exporter would get USD 980 x MYR 3,8 = MYR 3724 per ton. In the event that the exchange rate were to change to MYR 3,25 the CNF Rotterdam-price would increase to 3724/3,25 = USD 1146, meaning that, on unshipped positions, the importers would have to find USD 166 per ton extra for the trade. The demand is simply not there and importers say "why put something in the pipeline if there is no certainty whatsoever that a parcel can be sold". The current landed stock in Holland is said to be more than enough to cater for the current weak demand in Dark red Meranti and importers do not want to risk any currency risk through an advanced purchase. A change now could, say analysts, create a messy situation and the question would be "are retailers/endusers in Holland willing to absorb higher prices?" or would they simply cancel orders to avoid the surcharge. The current 'no change' from Bank Negara is not seen as an indication that the rate will not change. Ringgit Peg Held Ecomonic Woes Efforts to halt the decline of the US dollar versus the Euro have come to nothing so far and the US is certainly not eager to see a stronger dollar, as their exports would be hit. The Dutch Finance Minister is on record as saying that, even though there are signs of a global recovery, the economic situation in the Netherlands is still worrying. Apparently 18 the country is close to, if not already at, the EU 3% deficit allowance. France and Germany have already passed this 3% limit which forms part of the Euro-stability pact agreement. That France and Germany were not penalized as called for in the agreement drew some criticism from Dutch politicians but now Holland is also in the 'danger-zone'. This situation means that further budget-cuts and various tax increases seem unavoidable and that will hurt consumers after three earlier hefty rounds of budget cuts. People in Holland know they will have to tighten their belts further and this will undoubtedly result in less spending as everything becomes more expensive and there is less money to spend. Price Trends As reported earlier, due to the current low price in the market for Dark Red Meranti Bukit in common sizes such as 2.1/2x3.1/2" and 3x5", it is extremely hard to sell Sapelli or even African Mahogany. Prices for DRM remain constantly under downward pressure because of stagnant sales and the lack of cashflow that may drive some traders to try and push some sales. The development of the sales price in Holland for DRM is also under pressure because of the falling USD (at the moment the rate is US$1,287 to the euro) and the forecast is that the dollar may come down further months, there is not much to offer and what is being offered is offered at very firm prices. What is seen is that prices CNF basis Rotterdam for most items have slightly increased. Notably also, freight rate increases will to further price increases. Some shipping companies have indeed announced that, later this month, the freight will be raised by USD 10 per cubic metre. Prices CNF Rotterdam per ton of 50 cu ft Malaysian DRM Bukit KD Sel.Bet PHND in 3x5" US$980 Malaysian Nemesu KD Sel & Btr PHND 3"x5" in short supply Indonesian DRM Bukit KD Sel.Bet PHND in 3x5" US$955 Malaysian DRM Seraya KD Sel.Bet PHND in 3x5" US$995-1000 Indonesian DRM Seraya KD Sel.Bet PHND in 3x5" (no stocks) MTCC Certified KD Seraya Sel&Btr PHND 3x5 US$1010 Merbau KD Sel.Bet Sapfree in 3x5" US$1020 All based on container shipment at US$2050 per G.P. 40 ft. box. Freight variation for buyers account. Merbau shipment is now based on container loading due to the hugh breakbulk freight increase of Malaysian Ringgit 80/ton. In this situation should there be an enquiry in the market Dutch importers/traders attack like hungry wolves and in this buyers' market the prospective can play out the eager traders. Deliberate delays and renegotiations while pushing stories of even cheaper offers are all strategies used to get the traders to try and outbid each other with lower prices just to get the order. This is truly difficult market situation, in sharp contrast with the situation at the supply-side in Malaysia where, as a result of the slow supply and production in recent 19 Dollar Exchange Rates 6th February 2004 Australia Dollar 1.3 Japan Yen 105.46 Bolivia Boliviano 7.86 Korea, Rep. of Won 1168 Brazil Real 2.93 Liberia Dollar 1 Cambodia Riel 3990 Malaysia Ringgit 3.8 Cameroon C.F.A.Franc 516.42 Myanmar Kyat 6.42 Canada Dollar 1.34 Nepal Rupee 73 CAR C.F.A.Franc 516.42 New Zealand NZ Dollar 1.44 China Yuan 8.28 Nigeria Naira 136 Colombia Peso 2759.0 Norway Krone 6.89 Congo D.R C.F.A Franc 516.42 Panama Balboa 1 Congo, P. Rep. C.F.A.Franc 516.42 Papua New Guinea Kina 3.18 Cote d'Ivoire C.F.A.Franc 516.42 Peru New Sol 3.49 Denmark Krone 5.87 Philippines Peso 55.93 Ecuador dollar 1 Russian Fed. Ruble 28.53 Egypt Pound 6.17 Surinam Guilder 2515.0 EU Euro 0.79 Sweden Krona 7.18 Fiji Dollar 1.69 Switzerland Franc 1.23 Gabon C.F.A.Franc 516.42 Thailand Baht 38.14 Ghana Cedi 8858.0 Togo, Rep. C.F.A.Franc 516.42 Guyana Dollar 179 Trinidad and Tobago Dollar 6.15 Honduras, Rep. Lempira 17.83 United Kingdom Pound 0.54 India Rupee 45.29 Vanuatu Vatu 110 Indonesia Rupiah 8460 Venezuela Bolivar 1597 Abbreviations LM Loyale Merchant, a grade of log parcel QS CI CE CS Qualite Superieure Choix Industriel Choix Economique Choix Supplimentaire FOB KD AD Boule Free-on-Board Kiln Dry Air Dry A Log Sawn Through and Through the boards from one log are bundled together BB/CC Grade B faced and Grade C backed Plywood BF Board Foot Sq.Ft Square Foot Cu.m Koku FFR SQ SSQ FAS Cubic Metre 0.278 Cu.m or 120BF French Franc Sawmill Quality Select Sawmill Quality Sawnwood Grade First and Second WBP Water and Boil Proof MR Moisture Resistant pc per piece ea each MBF 1000 Board Feet MDF Medium Density Fibreboard F.CFA CFA Franc Price has moved up or down 20 Appendix 1 Tropical Timber Product Price Trends Tropical Log FOB Price Trends 180 160 120 100 80 60 40 20 Meranti SQ & Up Keruing SQ & Up African Mahogany L-MC Obeche L-MC Sapele L-MC Iroko L-MC 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2003 Dec Jan 2004 Meranti and Keruing Log FOB price Trends 85 Price Index (Jan 1997=100) 80 75 70 65 60 55 Meranti SQ & Up 50 Keruing SQ & Up 45 40 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2003 Jan 2004 W. African Log FOB price Trends 180 Price Index (Jan 1997=100) Price Index (Jan 1997=100) 140 160 140 120 100 80 60 African Mahogany L-MC 40 Obeche L-MC 20 Iroko L-MC 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2003 2004 21 Tropical sawnwood FOB Price Trends 160 120 100 80 60 40 Meranti Sapele Iroko 20 khaya Utile Wawa 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2003 Dec Jan 2004 Dark Red Meranti Sel & Btr FOB Price Trends 94 Price Index (Jan 1997=100) 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 Feb Mar Mar May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2003 Dec Jan 2004 African Mahogany FAS 25mm FOB Price Trends 120 115 Price Index (Jan 1997=100) Price Index (Jan 1997=100) 140 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2003 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2004 22 Other W. African Sawnwood FAS 25mm FOB Price Trends Price Index (Jan 1997=100) 160 140 120 100 Wawa 80 Sapele 60 Iroko 40 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2003 2004 Tropical Plywood FOB Price Trends 90 80 60 50 40 30 Indonesian 2.7mm Indonesian 6mm Brazilian Virola 5.2mm Brazilian Pine 9mm Malaysian 2.7mm Malaysian 9mm 20 10 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2003 Dec Jan 2004 Indonesian Plywood FOB Price Trends 60 Price Index (Jan 1997=100) Price Index (Jan 1997=100) 70 55 50 45 40 Indonesian 2.7mm Indonesian 6mm 35 30 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2003 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2004 23 Malaysian Plywood FOB Price Trends Price Index (Jan 1997=100) 65 60 Malaysian 2.7mm Malaysian 9mm 55 50 45 40 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2003 2004 Brazilian Plywood FOB Price Trends 90 Price Index (Jan 1997=100) 85 80 Virola 5.2mm 75 Pine 9mm 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2003 2004 Some Sources of Statistical and Economic Data ITTO Annual Review www.itto.or.jp/inside/review2002/index.html International Trade Centre www.intracen.org UN/FAO www.fao.org/forestry Eurostat http//europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat IMF www.imf.org World Bank www.worldbank.org EUROCONSTRUCT www.euroconstruct.com To subscribe to ITTO’s Market Information Service please contact [email protected] 24 25