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ASEAN DAILY BRIEFING
16 October 2008
Singapore
US$2.4 billion project hits funding snag
주롱 석유화학공장 24 억달러 프로젝트, 자금조달 어려움으로 차질
Jurong petrochem plant delayed as global credit crisis affects its financing
schedule. Construction here of two other giant petrochemical complexes of Shell
(US$3 billion) and ExxonMobil (US$5 billion-plus) remains on track however,
although sources said there are apparently minor hitches to some other projects
there.
The announced mega oil/chemicals projects here – including the $700 billion first
phase of Jurong Rock Cavern for underground oil storage – have not been
adversely hit by the global downturn so far. Other mega projects on Jurong Island
also remain on track. Germany's Lanxess which is building a 400 million euro
(S$828 million) synthetic rubber project - its largest investment ever - is planning
to break ground in January.
Tenders for both the construction and operatorship of the first S$700 million phase
of the Jurong Rock Cavern are still being evaluated and should be awarded soon,
by year-end, maintaining that the underground oil storage project is still on stream.
Summing up the picture for energy projects here, Economic Development Board
(EDB) commented that in the light of the current global crisis, there is a lot of
uncertainty and people are looking much harder at their projects. But EDB is not
seeing any major projects here affected yet.
Protectionism stands in way of APEC free trade
보호무역주의 추세로 APEC 자유무역협정 방해 받아
Big barriers stand in the way of a long-proposed Free Trade Area for the AsiaPacific (FTAAP). Countries are unwilling to open their borders to their trading
partners. And many of the problems that are seen in the Doha Round (of global
trade negotiations) are present in APEC countries. Countries do not want to open
their agricultural markets for imports; several APEC countries do not want to do
that.
Formed in 1989 as a forum to promote economic growth, trade and investment
across the region, the 21-member APEC operates largely on a consensual basis.
Commitments under APEC – forged through public-private partnerships in some
cases – are non-binding. APEC could instead do many things in the area of
encouraging concrete cooperation that would complement the goals of a FTA. The
best way to eliminate the 'noodle bowl' of bilateral and sub-regional trade pacts
that have sprouted in the wake of the Doha demise is 'free trade in the WTO'. The
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only way to reduce agricultural subsidies is also at the WTO.
Honda tops list of parallel import sales
혼다, 병행수입 판매 1 위
Honda continued to dominate the parallel import (PI) market in the third quarter of
this year as Nissan, a marque less commonly associated with the PI trade, raced
further ahead with its premium sports car model. Nissan climbs up with its
premium sports car model.
Retail sales hold up in Aug, but is expected to slow
소매판매 8 월 평상유지, 향후 감소 예상
Nominal sales were up 4.2% due to higher prices, but volume unchanged.
According to the Department of Statistics, telecommunication and computer
products saw the biggest year-on-year jump in retail sales at 29.6 per cent. This
was followed by sales at petrol service stations (18.4 per cent) and supermarkets
(13.3 per cent). Apparel and footwear retailers raked in 12.5 per cent higher sales,
while department stores saw their takings increase by 13 per cent.
Also rising were sales of watches and jewellery (13.5 per cent), medical goods and
toiletries (11.2 per cent), provision and sundry goods (9.9 per cent), food and
beverages (6.6 per cent), optical goods and books (3.4 per cent) and furniture and
household equipment (3.3 per cent). The only two categories that saw contraction
were motor vehicles and recreational goods, which saw their sales fall 12.9 per
cent and 6.8 per cent respectively.
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Malaysia
2009 growth may slow
내년 경제성장 저하 가능성
Malaysia's economy may expand as little as 4 per cent in 2009, the slowest pace
in eight years, and the central bank is ready to shift its focus to boosting growth as
inflation worries ease. The economy will probably expand 5-5.5 per cent this year.
The growth prediction for 2009 of 5.4 per cent may be revised.
JTI maintains dividend payout ratio of 60%
JTI 담배회사, 60% 배당금 지급
Tobacco major JT International Bhd (JTI) will maintain a dividend payout ratio of
60% even after a capital repayment. The company also announced that it would
not raise cigarette prices despite a 20% hike in excise duty and that it expected
better profits in financial year 2008.
In Budget 2009, the Government increased excise duty on cigarettes by three sen
per stick to 18 sen, making the duty for a 20-stick pack higher by 60 sen. JTI has
not seen any unusual trends after the recent 20% increase in excise duty on
cigarettes and that it does not plan to raise the prices of its cigarettes.
The higher excise tax would only result in more illegal trading of cigarettes. Such
activity is estimated to increase by 24% or one illegal cigarette for every four legal
cigarettes. According to a survey, JTI has an 18.5% market share in Malaysia.
Foreign investors set sights on S-E Asia
외국 투자자 동남아시아 에 눈길
Investors are also now looking at South-East Asia because they find the
fundamentals are still there. There is growth and the demographic is positive.
Investors are also finding China, Vietnam and India to be quite expensive to
deploy their funds, so there is some interest in looking at investment opportunities
in other countries in this region, including Malaysia.
There are challenges for Malaysian entrepreneurs and businesses trying to
compete globally. They face the challenge because they may not be big and
cannot go to the banks to get further lendings as their asset base is quite low. So,
private equity and venture capital are important aspects for businesses trying to
grow. But Malaysia has a lot of fundings - close to RM2bil - made available by the
Government to be invested in early and growth stage companies.
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Indonesia
Government mulls import limits on mobile phones and computers
정부, 휴대폰 및 컴퓨터 수입제한조치 고려
The government will hold a meeting on Sunday to decide on a proposal to ban
third-party importing of mobile phones and computers. Products could still be
brought in by companies importing their own brands. The measure under
consideration could be implemented more broadly, but they would first focus on
mobile phones and computers.
The current global financial crisis has triggered the measure, since the
government needs to reduce pressure on the foreign currency balance induced by
imports while curbing pressure from weakening global demand for Indonesian
products. The proposed regulation has already been approved by the acting
coordinating minister for the economy and is still awaiting approval from relevant
ministries.
The government has so far implemented such regulations on the automotive
industry where only brand owners can import the majority of their products. The
regulation would require the brand holder to establish a production base here if
they want access to the Indonesian market. Companies holding the brands would
be afforded six months to two years to establish a production base here.
Government expects budget deficit to narrow to 1 percent
정부 내년 예산적자 GDP 1%내로 축소 예상
The government has reduced the expected budget deficit for 2009 to 1 percent of
gross domestic product, down from the previous forecast of 1.3 percent. The
government is expected to reduce exposure on government bonds due to
unfavorable market conditions amid the growing global liquidity crisis and to
reduce expenditure on government offices and ministers. The government fuel
subsidy is also expected to slim as weakening global demand for oil should bring
down the price of crude oil from its July peak.
The China factor in Indonesian commodities exports
인도네시아 상품수출 중국경제에 달려 있어
Following the collapse of the financial sectors in the U.S. and Europe, fear of a
global economic slowdown has begun to spread. In spite of measures taken by the
U.S. and European governments to help their financial sectors, the threat of a
global recession remains prominent. This will result in the continued decline of
prices of oil and other commodities due to slower demand.
The commodity bulls at the beginning of the year made many believe Asia could
decouple itself from the U.S. slowdown, propelled by China and India. China's
strong GDP growth, which has been consistently in the double digits since the
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beginning of 2006, supported the theory. However, the train of thought was
derailed when China reported a decline in growth this year.
China has strong ties to the U.S. and EU economies as both account for
approximately 40 percent of China's total exports. An economic slowdown in both
regions will undoubtedly negatively impact the Chinese economy. China's GDP
growth declined from its peak of 12.6 percent recorded in the second quarter 2007
to 9.5 percent in the third quarter of this year, the worst fall since 2004.
China's economic slowdown will damage Indonesian exports, which account for
some 28 percent of our national GDP. The slowdown will more significantly impact
Indonesia's listed plantation and metal mining companies, because they produce
CPO, nickel and tin. Indonesia exports two thirds of its CPO production, and nearly
almost all of its nickel ore and tin output. It is worth noting that China is not only
the world's biggest importer of CPO, tin and nickel but also Indonesia's major
export destination for those commodities.
Interest rate for 2009 set at 7.5 percent to help growth
경제성장 지원위해 내년 기준 이자율 7.5%로 설정
The government and lawmakers agreed on Tuesday to set the country's
benchmark interest rate and inflation in the 2009 state budget at 7.5 percent and
6.2 percent, respectively.
A lower interest rate means a low cost of borrowing, which could boost demand for
bank lending among companies and individuals. Robust bank lending will
eventually stimulate economic growth.
Inflation has been set at 6.2 percent, lower than the proposed 7 percent so that the
government will have to work hard to boost the real sector. The economy probably
expanded 6.3 percent in the third quarter of this year on higher domestic demand.
The Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) – the country's benchmark oil price – has been
set at US$80 per barrel, lower than the government's proposal of $85. ICP is
usually about $5 lower than global oil prices. The U.S. demand for oil would fall
because of the U.S. economic slowdown, easing pressure on global oil prices. The
budget deficit is set at Rp 71.3 trillion, or 1.3 percent of GDP. To finance the
deficit, the government has Rp 21 trillion in standby loans from the World Bank.
The government spending is needed so as to stimulate the economy.
India
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RBI reduces cash reserve ratio, will provide funds for banks
인도중앙은행 현금보유율 축소, 은행에 기금제공 예정
India cut the amount of deposits lenders need to set aside as reserves and said
that it will provide funds for banks to tackle a global credit crunch that threatens to
plunge the world into a recession. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced its
cash reserve ratio to 6.5 per cent from 7.5 per cent, the second cut in a week.
The move will add 400 billion rupees (S$12.2 billion) into the financial system.
India accelerated loan payments to banks and doubled the overseas investment
limit in corporate bonds to shore up the rupee from near a record low. India joined
the world's biggest central banks in flooding the financial system as the risk of a
sharper slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy has outweighed inflation
pressures. Tumbling commodity prices may damp India's prices even as a weaker
currency pushes up import costs.
The focus of monetary policy should shift to ensuring financial stability and growth
over inflation. Inflation is becoming less of a concern.
Oil dips, but Re fall erodes gain
오일가격 급락불구 루피화 다시 약세
The rupee's fall against the greenback may have taken away much of the ground
yielded by sliding crude but it is to be seen how much longer the government can
stand up to increasing expectations among voters of reduced fuel bill in the wake
of international oil price dropping over 40% to about $75 a barrel on Wednesday
from its mid-July peak of a little over $147 a barrel. All indicators point to a further
drop in crude due to fears of the global financial virus cooling economies and
flattening demand. On Wednesday, the rupee fell 1 per cent following heavy
losses in the local stock market and pressured by offshore related dollar demand,
with central bank intervention helping it to pull back from the day's low.
Vietnam
New deep water ports to boost investment, trade
투자 및 무역 증진위해 심해항구 건설 예정
The VND11.47 trillion (US$695 million) project comprising Cai Mep and Thi Vai
international deep-water ports will be built on 75ha of land in Tan Thanh District of
Ba Ria –Vung Tau Province. Funds for the key infrastructural project are being
sourced from official development assistance of the Japanese government and the
State budget.
The Cai Mep–Thi Vai International Port Construction Project, approved by the
Government four years ago in Decision No 695, is scheduled to be finished by
2012. Upon completion, the terminals, together with other ports along the Thi Vai
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River will form a complete marine transport system of international standards,
creating highly favorable conditions for import and export activities in the country.
The project is part of efforts to reduce the stockpile of cargo at ports in inner HCM
City and to reduce traffic congestion on urban streets. It will also accelerate the
schedule of removing ports from the inner city. The ports will increase the loading
capacity of ports and boost socio-economic development of the southern area and
the rest of Viet Nam. The Cai Mep and Thi Vai International Ports will surely attract
a significant source of foreign direct investment into Viet Nam.
Scientists seek co-operation in biofuel development
과학자들, 바이오연료 개발위해 협력 모색
Viet Nam has set targets to develop biofuel production and usage models to turn
out 100,000 tonnes of 5 per cent ethanol blend and 50,000 tonnes of 5 per cent
biodiesel blend each year, under an energy development program to 2010, aiming
at meeting 0.4 per cent of the country’s demand for petrol. Developing biofuel is an
urgent need and the Government has mapped out a plan to import this commodity
to fulfill the country’s target. However, top priority is still given to investment and
exploitation of agricultural waste and by-products in the production of biofuels.
Viet Nam currently has five biofuel development projects, including a US$85
million plant to produce 99.7 per cent ethanol from cassava with a capacity of 100
million litres of ethanol per year in northern Phu Tho Province. It has another $85
million project to produce 100 million litres of 99.7 per cent ethanol each year in
Dung Quat industrial zone in central Quang Ngai Province. These projects are
scheduled to start their operation in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
Philippines
Budget group sees no growth in exports
개발예산조정위원회, 필리핀 수출정체 예상
The Development Budget Coordinating Committee, which sets the Philippines’
macroeconomic targets, said that exports would post a zero growth in 2009 from 4
percent this year on the back of slowing demand from the United States, a main
trading partner. With the lower demand from the US, Japan was the Philippines’
biggest market in August with exports receipts of $707.87 million, up by 13.3
percent from $624.55 million in 2007.
In August, despite weak electronics shipments abroad and declining sales to the
US, Philippine exports slightly accelerated. Amid the weaker export projection, the
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas earlier said that it remains confident that exports
would improve in 2009. It added that the increase would be supported by
improvement in electronics shipments, as the country’s major trading partners are
expected to recover from this year’s slump. The central bank said mining
investments would resume soon, helping crank up domestic mineral production.
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The pick-up in exports would help sustain the country’s balance of payments
surplus.
Rice market tight next year
내년도 쌀시장 빠듯할 듯
World rice markets are likely to remain tight in 2009 despite an expected record
harvest after key producers clamped down on exports. Export prices of one of the
world’s most important grains almost tripled between last November and May,
triggering riots in more than a dozen countries, before softening to still historically
high levels of more than $700 a ton. The 2008 to 2009 rice market is likely to
remain tight even with projected record global production of 432 million tons, a 1percent increase over last year’s 428 million tons.
The projected increase in output arises from an extra one million hectares (2.2
million acres) planted with rice, to a total 155.3 million hectares, with India
accounting for more than half of the total increase. Prices are likely to remain high
partly in response to export restrictions imposed by key rice-producing countries.
Increasing rice production through area expansion is also unlikely in most parts of
the world because of water scarcity and competition for land from nonagricultural
uses such as industrialization and urbanization.
The world would need an extra 59 million tons of milled rice by 2020 above the
2007 consumption of 422 million tons.
Thailand
Businesses wary in Cambodia
기업들 캄보디아 영업활동 신중기해
Leading companies including Siam Cement, Siam Commercial Bank and the CP
Group have put their Cambodian offices on high alert in case tensions worsen due
to the domestic political risk and armed conflict along the Cambodian border.
According to the Foreign Trade Department, Thai exports to Cambodia totalled 33
billion baht for the year to August, up 58.7% from the same period last year.
Imports were up 157% to 2.06 billion baht. Key Thai exports to Cambodia include
fuel oil, sugar, motorcycles, automobiles and machines, while imports include
maize, iron, aluminium poles and copper. Thailand ranks third among Cambodia's
trading partners, after Vietnam and China, and is also the third-largest foreign
investor in the country after Korea and Japan. But official trade statistics do not
capture an additional 30 billion baht in border trade each year.
New Honda plant opens
신규 혼다공장 가동 예정
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Honda Automobile (Thailand) is about to double its output by starting production at
a second plant, despite gloomy export prospects for next year. Three new models
– the Honda Accord, Honda Jazz and Honda City – have boosted Thai sales as
the marketing strategy has abandoned a goal of one new model every four years.
For its export sales, Honda is hoping to see revenue increase to 73 billion baht, up
12% from 65 billion last year. Main export destinations are Asia, New Zealand and
Australia. Any alteration in the Australian economy will hugely affect Honda’s
export sales. However, the gloomy outlook is offset by news such as the
continuing drop in the price of crude, which has also cut other raw material prices.
It seems that purchasing in some countries has declined while others have placed
higher orders. The downturn would be less damaging than the 1997 crisis and that
costs could be cut in order to deal with the slowdown.
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