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Brochure More information from http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1587039/ Slovakia Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Description: Economy To Outperform Eurozone Growth Over Medium Term In this Q211 Slovakia Business Forecast we caution that 2011 will be a difficult year for the ruling centre-right coalition government. We highlight the potential for continued ructions within the administration that could undermine the cohesion of the coalition and, in turn, the government’s fiscal austerity drive. That said, we continue to believe that the fractious centre-right coalition will be able to reduce the deficit from an estimated 7.8% of GDP in 2010 to 5.6% of GDP in 2011 and below the Maastricht-defined 3.0% of GDP limit by 2013. Moreover, we remain relatively positive on Slovakia’s economic outlook and see real GDP growth of 3.2% in 2011, down from an estimated 4.0% in 2010. We attribute the slowdown to the centreright coalition government’s fiscal consolidation measures and less accommodative base effects. The publisher forecasts Slovakia’s current account deficit will widen in 2011 to EUR 2.3bn (2.9% of GDP) from an estimated EUR 1.8bn (2.5% of GDP) in 2010. This will be driven in large part by a growing income account deficit as a result of rising dividend and interest payments repatriated to foreign-parent companies, and a narrowing merchandise trade surplus, as import growth outpaces export growth. Both of these dynamics are predicated on our view for Slovakia’s economic recovery to firm, with the country set to post 3.2% real GDP growth in 2011. The publisher forecasts Slovak industrial production growth to continue its impressive ascent in 2011, averaging 12.0% y-o-y, after having averaged 19.1% in 2010. This view is predicated on our assumption that demand in Slovakia’s key export markets will remain buoyant. This bodes well for the country’s economic growth outlook, which we are forecasting to be 3.2% in 2011. Our overall outlook for the Slovak banking sector remains positive, despite our view that credit extension will not reach pre-crisis highs. Indeed, banks are starting to show strong signs of recovery, posting an 105.4% y-o-y increase in profits in 2010. We expect that client loans and deposits will experience a sustained recovery, though do not expect that they will reach pre-crisis highs in the forecast period, and we are forecasting 6.0% and 6.8% growth respectively in 2011. Contents: Executive Summary Economy To Outperform Eurozone Growth Over Medium Term Chapter 1: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Ratings Domestic Politics Key Challenges For Government In 2011 Slovakia’s centre-right coalition faces a tough year in 2011, with a number of key challenges on the horizon Table: Political Overview Chapter 2: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Ratings Economic Activity Industrial Production To Remain Strong In 2011 We forecast Slovak industrial production growth to continue its impressive ascent in 2011, averaging 12.0% y -o-y on the back of sustained domestic demand in Germany and the wider eurozone TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Fiscal Policy Fiscal Consolidation Under Way News that Slovakia’s 2010 state budget deficit has come in below target, at EUR 4.44bn, is a promising sign that the government will be able to narrow the fiscal deficit from an estimated 7.8% of GDP in 2010 to our 5.6% of GDP forecast in 2011 TABLE: FISCAL POLICY Monetary Policy Higher Commodity Prices Drive Inflation in 2011 Building inflationary pressures in Slovakia will push the average consumer price inflation to 1.8% y-o-y in 2011, up from 0.7% in 2010 TABLE: MONETARY POLICY Balance Of Payments 2011 Recovery To Widen C/A Deficit We forecast Slovakia’s current account deficit to widen in 2011 to EUR 2.3bn, representing 2.9% of GDP, from an estimated EUR 1.8bn, or 2.5% of GDP, in 2010 TABLE: BALANCE OF PA YMENTS (Euro) Banking Sector Banking: Slow Recovery On Track Our overall outlook for the Slovak banking sector remains positive, despite our view that credit extension will not reach pre-crisis highs Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast The Slovak Economy To 2020 TABLE: SLOVAKIA – LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS Chapter 4: Business Environment SWOT Analysis BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings Business Environment Outlook Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating Infrastructure Table: Labour Force Quality Market Outlook Table: Emerging Europe – Annual FDI Inflows Table: Trade And Investment Ratings Operational Risk TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS Chapter 5: Key Sectors Oil & Gas Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) Petrochemicals Table: Sl ovakia Petrochemicals Sector Data & Forecasts 2007-2015 Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions Global Outlook Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat Table: Global Assumptions TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH % CHG Y-O-Y TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS Chapter 7: Sector Forecast Appendix Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators Table: Ph arma Sector Key Indicators Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators Table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators Table: Freigh t Key Indicators Ordering: Order Online - http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1587039/ Order by Fax - using the form below Order by Post - print the order form below and send to Research and Markets, Guinness Centre, Taylors Lane, Dublin 8, Ireland. 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