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Brochure More information from http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1587020/ Poland Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Description: Fiscal Position Tarnishes Rosy Outlook With Poland’s Central Statistical Office releasing a preliminary estimate of 2010 real GDP growth at 3.8%, we reiterate our optimistic take on the outlook for the Polish economy in 2011. However, we see a more challenging economic landscape in 2012, as we believe Poland’s oversized government budget deficit will necessitate the implementation of growth-slowing fiscal austerity. With Poland’s economy on course for robust growth in 2011, having avoided recession during the global financial crisis, we expect the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk to be comfortably re-elected in the parliamentary elections due by October this year. Following the election, we expect his government to show greater commitment to reducing Poland’s bloated budget deficit, which we estimate came in at 7.6% of GDP in 2010. The report shows further monetary tightening over the course of 2011 by the National Bank of Poland, building on the 25-basis point hike implemented on January 19. Indeed, with the Polish economy continuing to show robust expansion and inflationary pressures rising, we forecast the central bank’s benchmark rate to rise by a further 75 basis points to 4.50% by end-2011. In turn, we reiterate our view that the zloty will steadily appreciate over the course of 2011. Poland’s bloated budget deficit is the biggest macroeconomic risk facing the domestic economy. Indeed, in attempting to defer any meaningful fiscal consolidation until after the October parliamentary elections, the government is risking investor confidence in the sovereign and thereby the whole economy. However, while the fiscal deficit presents a substantial risk to Poland’s macroeconomic stability, we do not believe the government will experience a funding crisis Contents: Executive Summary Fiscal Position Tarnishes Rosy Outlook Chapter 1: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Ratings Domestic Politics Tusk On Course For Re-Election With Poland’s economy on course for robust growth in 2011, having avoided recession during the global financial crisis, we expect the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk to be comfortably re-elected in the parliamentary elections due by October this year Table: Poland Political Overview Chapter 2: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Ratings Economic Activity Preliminary GDP Affirms Optimistic Outlook With Poland’s Central Statistical Office releasing a preliminary estimate of 2010 real GDP growth at 3.8%, we reiterate our optimistic take on the outlook for the Polish economy in 2011 Table: GDP CONTRI BUTION TO GRO WTH Monetary Policy More Hikes In The Pipeline We see further monetary tightening over the course of 2011 by the National Bank of Poland, building on the 25-basis point hike implemented on January 19 table: MONETARY POLICY Exchange Rate Policy Rate Hike To Spur Zloty Higher The Polish zloty has made a good start to 2011, rallying 3.1% against the euro, with further gains in store for the remainder of the year, in our view Table: EXCHANGE RATE Fiscal Policy Fiscal Deficit: The Big Macro Risk Poland’s bloated budget deficit, which we estimate to have come in at 7.6% of 2010 GDP, is easily the biggest macroeconomic risk facing the domestic economy Table: FISCAL POLICY Regional Banking Sector Improved Banking Outlook As Economic Growth Firms Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast The Polish Economy To 2020 Favourable Growth Dynamics To Remain Over The Longer Term We believe the Polish economy will continue to expand at a healthy clip over our 10-year forecast period, with average annual real growth of 4.4% during 2015-2020 table: POLAND Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts Chapter 4: Business Environment SWOT Analysis BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings Business Environment Outlook Institutions Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating Infrastructure Market Orientation Table: Labour Force Quality Table: Emerging Europe – Annual FDI Inflows Table: Trade And Investment Ratings Operational Risk TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS Chapter 5: Key Sectors Consumer Electronics Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2015 Shipping Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions Global Outlook Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat table: Global Assumptions TABLE : GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH % CHG Y-O-Y TABLE : CONSENSUS FORECASTS Chapter 7: Sector Forecast Appendix table: Autos Sector Key Indicators table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators table: Ph armaceuticals Sector Key Indicators table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators Table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators Table: Freigh t Key Indicators Ordering: Order Online - http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1587020/ Order by Fax - using the form below Order by Post - print the order form below and send to Research and Markets, Guinness Centre, Taylors Lane, Dublin 8, Ireland. 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