Download Poland Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Brochure

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Poland Business Forecast Report Q2 2011
Description:
Fiscal Position Tarnishes Rosy Outlook
With Poland’s Central Statistical Office releasing a preliminary estimate of 2010 real GDP growth at 3.8%, we
reiterate our optimistic take on the outlook for the Polish economy in 2011. However, we see a more
challenging economic landscape in 2012, as we believe Poland’s oversized government budget deficit will
necessitate the implementation of growth-slowing fiscal austerity.
With Poland’s economy on course for robust growth in 2011, having avoided recession during the global
financial crisis, we expect the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk to be comfortably re-elected in the
parliamentary elections due by October this year. Following the election, we expect his government to show
greater commitment to reducing Poland’s bloated budget deficit, which we estimate came in at 7.6% of GDP
in 2010.
The report shows further monetary tightening over the course of 2011 by the National Bank of Poland,
building on the 25-basis point hike implemented on January 19. Indeed, with the Polish economy continuing
to show robust expansion and inflationary pressures rising, we forecast the central bank’s benchmark rate
to rise by a further 75 basis points to 4.50% by end-2011. In turn, we reiterate our view that the zloty will
steadily appreciate over the course of 2011.
Poland’s bloated budget deficit is the biggest macroeconomic risk facing the domestic economy. Indeed, in
attempting to defer any meaningful fiscal consolidation until after the October parliamentary elections, the
government is risking investor confidence in the sovereign and thereby the whole economy. However, while
the fiscal deficit presents a substantial risk to Poland’s macroeconomic stability, we do not believe the
government will experience a funding crisis
Contents:
Executive Summary
Fiscal Position Tarnishes Rosy Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
Tusk On Course For Re-Election
With Poland’s economy on course for robust growth in 2011, having avoided recession during the global
financial crisis, we expect the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk to be comfortably re-elected in the
parliamentary elections due by October this year
Table: Poland Political Overview
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Preliminary GDP Affirms Optimistic Outlook
With Poland’s Central Statistical Office releasing a preliminary estimate of 2010 real GDP growth at 3.8%, we
reiterate our optimistic take on the outlook for the Polish economy in 2011
Table: GDP CONTRI BUTION TO GRO WTH
Monetary Policy
More Hikes In The Pipeline
We see further monetary tightening over the course of 2011 by the National Bank of Poland, building on the
25-basis point hike implemented on January 19
table: MONETARY POLICY
Exchange Rate Policy
Rate Hike To Spur Zloty Higher
The Polish zloty has made a good start to 2011, rallying 3.1% against the euro, with further gains in store for
the remainder of the year, in our view
Table: EXCHANGE RATE
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal Deficit: The Big Macro Risk
Poland’s bloated budget deficit, which we estimate to have come in at 7.6% of 2010 GDP, is easily the biggest
macroeconomic risk facing the domestic economy
Table: FISCAL POLICY
Regional Banking Sector
Improved Banking Outlook As Economic Growth Firms
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The Polish Economy To 2020
Favourable Growth Dynamics To Remain Over The Longer Term
We believe the Polish economy will continue to expand at a healthy clip over our 10-year forecast period,
with average annual real growth of 4.4% during 2015-2020
table: POLAND Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 4: Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
Institutions
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Infrastructure
Market Orientation
Table: Labour Force Quality
Table: Emerging Europe – Annual FDI Inflows
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
Operational Risk
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
Consumer Electronics
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2015
Shipping
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat
table: Global Assumptions
TABLE : GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH % CHG Y-O-Y
TABLE : CONSENSUS FORECASTS
Chapter 7: Sector Forecast Appendix
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
table: Ph armaceuticals Sector Key Indicators
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
Table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators
Table: Freigh t Key Indicators
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