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7/8/2014 AFGHANISTAN Central Statistic Organization (CSO) National Accounts Presentation Training Workshop Changes in SNA 2008 Affecting GDP Compilation 30 JUNE - 4 JULY 2014 ASTANA,, KAZAKHSTAN ASTANA M. Ibrahim Naimi Head National Account and Price Statistics Dept Neighbor Countries of Afghanistan Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Turkmenistan, Iran, Pakistan & China 1 7/8/2014 Economical Information GDP base year 20022002-03 (1381) GDP in US$ (Mn) 20132013-14 21,226 GDP Growth Rate % 6.4 Sectoral contribution to GDP in % Agriculture 24.6, Industry 19.7, Services 51.7 Population (Mn) 27.5 GDP/Capita (US$) 772 Inflation Rate % 5.6 3 National Accounts Statistical Framework • Since 2002, The GDP estimates broadly follow the concepts and definitions of the SNA 1993, as far as the basic data availability permit. • Currently the CSO is compiling GDP by economic activities i i i at current andd constant prices i ( (1381, 2002-03)) and by expenditure categories at current prices. 2 7/8/2014 Current Prices Current Practices and Status Output is obtained by multiplying the quantity output (QO) of each product by its producers’ prices (PR). GVA = Output (QO*PR) – Intermediate Consumption. Constant prices Value added at constant prices 1381(2002-03) are derived by using the 1381 value added and applying a volume indicator by dividing QO of current year by QO of base year. Ownership of Dwellings • In AF the ownership of dwelling includes all rent actually paid and imputed p p rent of owner-occupied p dwelling. g The imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings is equal to rent paid in the market for similar dwellings. • Sources: data are obtained directly from the population and housing census as an average prices of dwelling of their average economic life, and the rent price index in the CPI. 3 7/8/2014 Current Practices and Status For output of ownership of dwellings there is a model calculation using average rents, population figures and average persons per households to multiply the number of the households with the average rent in order to get output. IC is then deducted to arrive at GVA. The formula suggests (using total population) that ownership of dwelling covers all dwellings, regardless whether owner-occupied or rented. No.HH = Total Population / Average Person of H (6.3) Total rent = No.HH* Rent Average g for the country y /yr y = output p • • • • IC/yr = 1.5% Total rent/ (Maintenance) GVA = Total rent – IC For the other years CPI inflation( housing aggregate) is used to inflate the rent Population is derived from Population Publication which has been publishing every year as separate publication. • Challenges • In fact it is the total rental value of all residential houses and flats regardless whether the occupier is the owner or jjust a tenant. • The challenge is to show the market output of housing services (payments of tenants) separately from the output for own final use of the owner-occupiers. • However, the outstanding challenge is lack of a fullfledged housing census for the recent past. 4 7/8/2014 Conclusion • Given the poor data situation plausibility checks are necessary. • One option: check with figures from the household surveys (ALCS / NRVA). • Other for selected provinces: Socio Socio-Demographic Demographic and Economic Survey (SDES). Institutions (Banking) Current Practices and Status • Data are collected from all 16 private and govt. banks through g DAB. Central Bank of Afghanistan • Output consists of net Interest, commissions, fees, safety box, sale of check books + other receipts (rent and others) • For value added estimates of the all banks, production approach is used • IC = Intermediate I t di t Consumption C ti = Bsc B +Mfc +Mf + Sc S • Bsc= Bank-service consumption=sum (D. 6.7.8.10) • Mfc= Material and furniture consumption = E • Sc= Service consumption = F • Va = Output - IC 5 7/8/2014 Money exchange Current Practices • The money exchange formal and informal are based on NAD study. study • Informal (street exchange money) GVA per person is based on NA study per person output multiply by No of exchangers • IC = 2.5% total output • For F the h other h year just j multiplied l i li d by b No N off exchangers. h • The general CPI is used to deflate the current prices data to arrive at constant prices. Non- observed Economy • Due to approaches of commodity flow for agriculture and for trade the big chunk of non-observed economy is covered. • For poppy production and production of heroin and other drugs figures from UN Drug Organization are used. • For o tthee whole w o e economy eco o y a su survey vey ((IBES) S) w will be conducted co ducted this t s year which in its sampling part covers all small scale business other than agriculture. The results will be implemented during next revision of National Accounts. 6 7/8/2014 Future Plan Complete 1993 SNA implementation. Develop QNA Develop data processing system for 1993 SNA. Compile the integrated economic accounts Use of IBES Data Change base year Revise whole GDP data Apply ISIC V.4 Thank you 14 7