Download Training Workshop Changes in Training Workshop Changes in SNA 2008 SNA 2008 Affecting

7/8/2014
AFGHANISTAN
Central Statistic Organization (CSO)
National Accounts Presentation
Training Workshop Changes in SNA 2008
Affecting GDP Compilation
30 JUNE - 4 JULY 2014
ASTANA,, KAZAKHSTAN
ASTANA
M. Ibrahim Naimi
Head
National Account and Price Statistics Dept
Neighbor Countries of Afghanistan
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Turkmenistan, Iran, Pakistan & China
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Economical Information
 GDP base year
20022002-03 (1381)
 GDP in US$ (Mn) 20132013-14
21,226
 GDP Growth Rate %
6.4
 Sectoral contribution to GDP in %
 Agriculture 24.6, Industry 19.7, Services 51.7
 Population (Mn)
27.5
 GDP/Capita (US$)
772
 Inflation Rate %
5.6
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National Accounts Statistical
Framework
• Since 2002, The GDP estimates broadly follow the
concepts and definitions of the SNA 1993, as far as the
basic data availability permit.
• Currently the CSO is compiling GDP by economic
activities
i i i at current andd constant prices
i
(
(1381,
2002-03))
and by expenditure categories at current prices.
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Current Prices
Current Practices
and Status
Output is obtained by multiplying the quantity output (QO) of
each product by its producers’ prices (PR).
GVA = Output (QO*PR) – Intermediate Consumption.
Constant prices
Value added at constant prices 1381(2002-03) are derived by
using the 1381 value added and applying a volume indicator by
dividing QO of current year by QO of base year.
Ownership of Dwellings
• In AF the ownership of dwelling includes all rent actually
paid and imputed
p
p
rent of owner-occupied
p
dwelling.
g The
imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings is equal to rent paid
in the market for similar dwellings.
• Sources: data are obtained directly from the population and
housing census as an average prices of dwelling of their
average economic life, and the rent price index in the CPI.
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Current Practices and Status
For output of ownership of dwellings there is a model calculation using
average rents, population figures and average persons per households to
multiply the number of the households with the average rent in order to get
output. IC is then deducted to arrive at GVA.
The formula suggests (using total population) that ownership of dwelling
covers all dwellings, regardless whether owner-occupied or rented.
No.HH = Total Population / Average Person of H (6.3)
Total rent = No.HH* Rent Average
g for the country
y /yr
y = output
p
•
•
•
•
IC/yr = 1.5% Total rent/ (Maintenance)
GVA = Total rent – IC
For the other years CPI inflation( housing aggregate) is used to inflate the rent
Population is derived from Population Publication which has been publishing every year as
separate publication.
•
Challenges
• In fact it is the total rental value of all residential houses
and flats regardless whether the occupier is the owner or
jjust a tenant.
• The challenge is to show the market output of housing
services (payments of tenants) separately from the output
for own final use of the owner-occupiers.
• However, the outstanding challenge is lack of a fullfledged housing census for the recent past.
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Conclusion
• Given the poor data situation plausibility checks are
necessary.
• One option: check with figures from the household
surveys (ALCS / NRVA).
• Other for selected provinces: Socio
Socio-Demographic
Demographic and
Economic Survey (SDES).
Institutions (Banking)
Current Practices and Status
• Data are collected from all 16 private and govt. banks through
g
DAB.
Central Bank of Afghanistan
• Output consists of net Interest, commissions, fees, safety box,
sale of check books + other receipts (rent and others)
• For value added estimates of the all banks, production approach
is used
• IC = Intermediate
I t
di t Consumption
C
ti = Bsc
B +Mfc
+Mf + Sc
S
• Bsc= Bank-service consumption=sum (D. 6.7.8.10)
• Mfc= Material and furniture consumption = E
• Sc= Service consumption = F
• Va = Output - IC
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Money exchange Current Practices
• The money exchange formal and informal are based on NAD
study.
study
•
Informal (street exchange money) GVA per person is based
on NA study per person output multiply by No of exchangers
•
IC = 2.5% total output
• For
F the
h other
h year just
j multiplied
l i li d by
b No
N off exchangers.
h
• The general CPI is used to deflate the current prices data to
arrive at constant prices.
Non- observed Economy
• Due to approaches of commodity flow for agriculture and for
trade the big chunk of non-observed economy is covered.
• For poppy production and production of heroin and other
drugs figures from UN Drug Organization are used.
• For
o tthee whole
w o e economy
eco o y a su
survey
vey ((IBES)
S) w
will be conducted
co ducted this
t s
year which in its sampling part covers all small scale business
other than agriculture. The results will be implemented during
next revision of National Accounts.
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Future Plan
 Complete 1993 SNA implementation.
 Develop QNA
 Develop data processing system for 1993 SNA.
 Compile the integrated economic accounts
 Use of IBES Data
 Change base year
 Revise whole GDP data
 Apply ISIC V.4
Thank you
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