Download Presenter Ms Magdelyn Kuari PNG Treasury

Presenter
Ms Magdelyn Kuari
PNG Treasury
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Current Macroeconomic Modeling in PNG
Model Application-Treasury Perspective
Challenges
Current Reform Work
Framework for 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
Institution
Modelling Work
Purpose
Type of Model
Methodology
Data Source
Forecast
Timeframe
Department
of Treasury
Forecast GDP,CPI,
BOP & Revenue
Fiscal Policy and
National Budget
Excel Spreadsheet
GDP-Production
Approach
GDP-businesses &
commodity boards
5 years
CPI-External & Domestic
(judgment due to data
limitation) factors
CPI-National
Statistical Office
BOP-Exports & Imports
BOP-businesses and
commodity boards
Revenue-Forecast by
individual revenue
source (tax & non-tax)
Tax and Non Tax
data from IRC ,
Customs, DOF &
DNPM (grants)
GDP-Production &
Demand Approach
Trade Data
Central Bank
Department
of National
Planning &
Monitoring
GDP, CPI, BOP &
Monetary
Indicators
Forecast GDP, GNI,
Exports, Current
Account, Revenue,
Employment
Monetary Policy
& other research
related work
Projects
Excel Spreadsheet
& other
supporting model
General
Equilibrium Model
(GEM)
CPI-External & Domestic
factors
3 years
Conduct Business
Liaison Survey
BOP-Exports & Imports
Trade Data
Input-Output Model
Results
Reports
20 years
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Policy
◦ Fiscal Policies are formulated as per modeling results
◦ Challenge is the actual implementation of the policy (revenue shocks &
capacity to implement programmes & projects)
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Policy Simulation
◦ No policy simulation models
◦ Economic impact of policy changes mainly on the revenue (tax policy)
is done using the existing framework
◦ Sensitivity analysis to assess the external shocks in particular
commodity prices.
◦ Central Bank through their research do policy simulation
◦ Short training provided by the IMF on policy simulation using MATLAB
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Data Limitations
◦ Coverage (data gaps)
◦ Availability of data
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Technical Capacity
◦ Econometric aspect of macroeconomic modeling
 Short term Training on simple regression using Eviews conducted by the
Australian Treasury to build capacity in this area. Need more training in this
area
Improving Statistics
 Currently reforming the National Statistical Office with
technical assistance from the ABS and the IMF
◦ Key Output-Official Release of the National Accounts back to 2007 in
in 2016 with wider data coverage & rebasing of GDP from 1998 base
◦ Updated CPI basket 2010 rebased and expansion of data coverage
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Adoption of the IMF 2014 Government Finance Statistics
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Need to be developed and would require:
◦ Collective efforts from relevant stakeholders (internal and external)
◦ Training
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Need to work with the Department of National Planning &
Monitoring
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Oversee the work of MDGs
Recently launched a National Strategy for Responsible Sustainable
Development for PNG