Download Developing Macro Economic Statistics: An Australian Perspective

Developing Macro Economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
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Main Points
The Characteristics of Australia’s
Macro-Economic Statistics;
The benefits to Australia
Shortcomings and Criticisms;
ABS Response and Future
Developments.
Developing Macro Economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
By world standards Australia has a rich set of macro-economic
statistics
-comprehensive in scope;
-quarterly frequency (GDP E,I&P and all accounts except sector
balance sheets)
-detailed:
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15,000 series;
original, seasonally adjusted and trend;
detailed breakdowns by industry, sector, transaction type, assets and
liabilities, nationally and by state.
-long time series (e.g. QGDP from 1959);
-timeliness/quality balance:
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National Accounts and BoP statistics (Annuals 5 months from
reference year, quarterlies 2 months from reference quarter)
Developing Macro-Economic Statistics: An Australian Perspective
Comprehensive Scope
AUS (~SNA08)
Production Account
Annually
Quarterly
Yes
Partial
(Not Published)
Income & Use of Income Account
Annually
Quarterly
Yes
Opening Balance Sheet
Annually
Quarterly
Capital Account
Annually
Quarterly
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Closing Balance Sheet
Annually
Quarterly
Yes
Financial Account
Annually
Quarterly
Yes
Other Changes in Assets Account
Anually
Quarterly
Yes
Yes
Yes
(Not Published)
Yes
No
“Detailed: Comparative breakdown of production by industry in quarterly accounts for
Aust and NZ illustrating added detail for Australia”
Australia GDP(P) published level of detail
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (A) ; Agriculture ;
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (A) ; Forestry and fishing ;
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (A) ;
Mining (B) ; Mining (excluding services to mining) ;
Mining (B) ; Exploration and mining support services ;
Mining (B) ;
Manufacturing (C) ; Food, beverage and tobacco products ;
Manufacturing (C) ; Textile, clothing and other manufacturing ;
Manufacturing (C) ; Wood and paper products ;
Manufacturing (C) ; Printing and recorded media ;
Manufacturing (C) ; Petroleum, coal, chemical and rubber products ;
Manufacturing (C) ; Non-metallic mineral products ;
Manufacturing (C) ; Metal products ;
Manufacturing (C) ; Machinery and equipment ;
Manufacturing (C) ;
Electricity, gas, water and waste services (D) ; Electricity ;
Electricity, gas, water and waste services (D) ; Gas
Electricity, gas, water and waste services (D) ; Water supply and waste
Electricity, gas, water and waste services (D) ;
Construction (E) ;
Wholesale trade (F) ;
Retail trade (G) ;
Accommodation and food services (H) ;
Transport, postal and warehousing (I) ; Road ;
Transport, postal and warehousing (I) ; Air and space transport ;
Transport, postal and warehousing (I) ; Rail, pipeline and other transport ;
Transport, postal and warehousing (I) ; Transport, postal and storage
Transport, postal and warehousing (I) ;
Information media and telecommunications (J) ;
Financial and insurance services (K) ;
Rental, hiring and real estate services (L) ;
Professional, scientific and technical services (M) ;
Administrative and support services (N) ;
Public administration and safety (O) ;
Education and training (P) ;
Health care and social assistance (Q) ;
Arts and recreation services (R) ;
Other services (S) ;
Ownership of dwellings ;
Gross value added at basic prices ;
Taxes less subsidies on products ;
Statistical discrepancy (P) ;
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ;
New Zealand published level of detail
Agriculture
Fishing, forestry, and mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, and water
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail, accommodation, and restaurants
Transport and communication
Finance, insurance, and business services
Government administration and defence
Personal and community services
Unallocated and balancing item(1)
Gross domestic product
Developing Macro-Economic Statistics: An Australian
Perspective
Statistical Detail
Table showing breakdown of Australian Cap Ex by component
Mar.2010 Jun.2010 Sep.2010 Dec.2010 Mar.2011
New and used dwellings
Alterations and additions
Ownership transfer costs
New building
New engineering construction
Total machinery and equipment
Cultivated biological resources
Research and development
Computer software
Mineral and petroleum exploration
Artistic originals
Public corporations
Commonwealth
State and local
General government
National-defence
National-non-defence
State and local
9991
7882
4031
8196
11478
20152
760
3436
2734
1466
344
10801
7847
3979
8312
12063
19390
793
3426
2768
1525
352
10613
7679
3679
8223
13098
19260
874
3405
2781
1482
361
10702
7496
3348
7736
13550
20109
807
3398
2831
1451
370
11180
7863
3352
7455
13890
21310
780
3390
2863
1522
376
393
6247
315
5958
405
6086
445
6014
532
5735
2632
2205
10927
2293
2611
10384
2259
2120
10321
2231
2123
10399
1696
2868
10235
Developing Macro Economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
a rich set of macro-economic statistics
-contemporary methodologies:
• FISIM allocation,
• “hidden economy adjustments”,
• Timely (year minus 1) annual supply/use
balancing-in current prices and volumes;
• Annual national input/output tables;
• Full annually chain-linked volume measures
• SNA 08
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Capitalisation of R&D and DWP
1993 SNA and 2008 SNA added ~ 5% to GDP; no impact on growth
GDP per capita on equivalent basis, Australia and New Zealand, 2000 - 2010*
$
60,000
NZ GDP/Capita
Aus GDP(equivalent)/Capita
50,000
40,000
Adjustments to Australian GDP (%GDPE)
1993 SNA
Cultivated Biological resources -<1%
HFCE Allocation of FISIM
-2%
Non-observed economy
-1%
2008 SNA
Research and Development
-1%
Defence Weapons Platforms -<1%
Total Adjustment
-5%
30,000
20,000
10,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
* New Zealand has March financial years, Australia has June financial years
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Developing Macro Economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
a rich set of macro-economic statistics
robust integrated data sources:
• Comprehensive Tax-based Business
Register
• Annual and Quarterly integrated economic
surveys (including capex, engineering
construction; and incomes)
Developing Macro Economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
Benefits to Australia
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model the effects of policy and investment options (e.g. use of I/O
tables in estimating the economic impact of various prices for
carbon, under an ETS or Carbon Tax);
assess the impact on the economy of external shocks (e.g. the
GFC), and of government policy responses;
capacity to understand and respond to the impact of key medium
to long-term economic drivers (e.g. the current mining boom);
and short-term factors (the impact of the Queensland floods);
identify and respond to financial and other economic risks;
confidence in understanding the structure and behaviour of the
economy and its components;
international confidence in the state of the Australian economy
and the quality of Australia’s economic management;
Informed advocacy and a lively and constructive economic
debate.
Understanding Shocks: Tracking the Impact of the GFC
Alternative Savings and Wealth
Understanding Shocks: Tracking the Impact of the GFC
Alternative “Income”
Understanding the Impact of
“Shocks”
“Without these numbers Australia
would have missed a big chunk of
the story during the GFC” Stephen
Morling, Head of Forecasting,
Australian Treasury)
Understanding Economic Drivers, Informing advocacy and debate:
Mining as a % of total Private Non Financial Corporations
Global Scrutiny of Economic Performance
G20 financial balance sheet data availability
Developing Macro-Economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
Policy, Understanding and Decision Making Issues: where improved
statistics can make a difference:
Users/Uses of Financial Accounts in Australia:
Commonwealth Treasury:
-Financial Analysis of Household and Business Financial Position;
-Tracking business profitability;
-Use in forecasting household wealth and savings flows;
-Monitor changes in sector savings rates;
-Capacity to confirm changes in savings by changes in financial
position of households (e.g. increased deposits);
-track falls in credit;
-Quarterly briefing to the Treasurer on Australian Financial position.
-identify inconsistencies within the SNA set and raise these points
with the ABS
Developing Macro-Economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
Policy, Understanding and Decision Making Issues: where improved statistics
can make a difference:
Users/Uses of Financial Accounts in Australia:
Reserve Bank of Australia
-RBA have a Financial Conditions Unit which uses the data extensively;
-focus on HH and Private Non-Financial Corporate Sectors;
-interested in % foreign ownership of equities and of Government Securities;
-track performance of Managed Funds;
-track changes in HH net-worth;
-track changes in sector savings ratios;
-RBA derive a quarterly HH B/S sheets using ABS and private sector (property
monitors) data;
-monitor gearing (assets/debt);
-monitor changes in HH consumption, model wealth impacts and household exposure
to equities;
-monitor vulnerability of business to debt exposure;
Developing Macro-Economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
Policy, Understanding and Decision Making Issues: where improved
statistics can make a difference:
Users/Uses of Financial Accounts in Australia:
ANZ Bank
-tracking changes in the assets and liabilities of the household and Private
Non-Financial Corporate Sectors (the most intensively used data sets were
the b/s and flow accounts for these two sectors);
-evaluation of gearing (debt/incomes, debt/assets) and related commercial
risk;
-track composition of changes in household savings over time; interested in
mix of financial and real assets;
-tracking % of household assets held on deposit;
-tracking of interest paid;
-assessment of the capacity of the corporate sector to service its debt;
Enhancing NZ’s Economic
Statistics: An Australian
Perspective
Policy, Understanding and Decision Making Issues: where improved
statistics can make a difference:
Users/Uses of Financial Accounts in Australia:
Deutsche Bank
-bond market monitoring (distribution of ownership of Federal and State
Government Bonds-domestic and off-shore);
-monitoring changes in the assets of pension funds;
-tracking change in corporate leverage (Private non-financial corporations);
-tracking change in ownership of debt and equity by pension funds and by the
Financial Sector (and the exposure of the latter to deposits);
-advising foreign clients on investment in Australian securities;
-authoritative source of debt on issue by sector (used in developing
investment proposals on behalf of clients).
Internal Consistency:
Net errors and omissions, Balance of
Payments, New Zealand and Australia
14,000
NZ NEO
Australian NEO
12,000
10,000
Note: Different CVM methods
8,000
6,000
$m
4,000
2,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-2,000
-4,000
Statistical Coherence
SIH and ASNA compared
Note: OECD
macro/micro
comparisons
projects
Developing Macro-economic
Statistics: An Australian
Perspective
Criticisms of Australian Macro-Economic Statistics
IMF ROSC:
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CPI Coverage (60% of resident population), maintenance (6
yearly rebase) and frequency (quarterly, not monthly)
Data sources and methodology for services in National Accounts
16th Series CPI Review
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CPI Frequency and Maintenance
Volatility of FISIM prices in CPI
Developing Macro-economic
Statistics: An Australian
Perspective
Criticisms of Australian Macro-Economic Statistics
User Criticisms
Credibility
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Size and direction of statistical discrepancies
Revisions and Corrections
Internal inconsistencies
Inconsistency with external evidence
Residual seasonality
Note: Different CVM methods
Internal consistency
Household Saving Ratios*
Per cent of household disposable income
%
%
Financial accounts
20
20
10
10
0
0
Income measure
-10
-10
-20
1988
-20
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
*Net of depreciation
**The f inancial accounts are non-seasonally adjusted; the income account is seasonally
adjuested
Source: ABS
2009
Revisions: HFCE
Net Household Saving
Per cent to net household disposable income
%
%
15
15
Current
10
10
5
5
Previous vintage
0
-5
1980
0
-5
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Developing Macro-economic
Statistics: An Australian
Perspective
Criticisms of Australian Macro-Economic
Statistics
Environmental and Wellbeing Criticisms
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GDP has undue prominence as a driver of
government policy (despite its known
limitations, growth in GDP is the de facto
measure of increased well-being).
Developing Macro-economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
ABS Response and Planned developments:
Strategic emphasis:
enhanced coherence/consistency:
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issues log;
internal and external data confrontation;
enhanced use of external economic intelligence;
focus of Analytical program.
capability building;
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Concentrate Research and Analytical capability;
Training;
business process improvement;
use of experienced former staff.
Developing Macro-economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
ABS Response and Planned developments:
stronger relationships with key users and suppliers:
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RBA;
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Commonwealth and State Treasuries;
Customs, Tax, APRA.
Update and publish Concepts, Sources and Methods documentation
in a “wiki” format;
Developing Macro-economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
ABS Response and Planned developments:
Improve identified areas where sources and methods are weak
(services: production, household consumption, international trade;
quarterly SUBs);
Review and, if required, update sources and methods for the Mining
sector;
New Funding Secured from 2011/12;
Update “Measures of Australia’s Progress”
A broader perspective on well-being: The Income Gap
Gini coefficient according to the OECD 2010 factbook
mid 2000s Australia: 0.30 NZ 0.34 OECD average 0.31
change 1980s-2000s Australia no overall change NZ 0.064; largest increase of OECD
countries (i.e. worsening of income distribution) OECD average change 0.0197
MAP Diagram
Developing Macro-Economic
Statistics: An Australian Perspective
Questions
And
Discussion