Download Measuring Government Workshop on New Zealand’s National Accounts and Financial Statistics

Measuring Government
Workshop on New Zealand’s National Accounts
and Financial Statistics
13 June 2011
© The Treasury
Two viewpoints:
1) The statistics needed to measure the role
and impact of government in the economy
2) The statistics needed to measure the
financial performance of the government
Two viewpoints are linked – much of the data
needed for (1) comes from (2) and the
viewpoints are complements
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Types of analysis under (1)
• Presenting government fully within a complete set of
national accounts (financial flows, asset and liability
positions across sectors)
• Better measures of the real activity of government (real
output of government non-market services – both for GDP
and productivity)
• Alternative household income and consumption measures
that better reflect the impact of government services and
income transfers
• Measuring the effectiveness of government in delivering
outputs/outcomes
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Types of analysis under (2)
• Public Finance Act 1989 and NZ Generally Accepted
Accounting Practice (GAAP)
• System of National Accounts (SNA): mainly in the context
of macro forecasts, recent Institutional Sector Accounts,
OECD reporting
• Government Finance Statistics (GFS): IMF staff reports to
transition to GFS2001 – underscored by GFC and fiscal
challenges
• Past Treasury efforts to bridge the ga(a)p – over-reliance
on bottom-up methods
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Reporting frameworks: entities
Core
Crown
GAAP
GFS
SNA
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Crown
entities
State owned
enterprises
Local
government
Total Crown
Historical and forecast
Central government
Forecast
Central government
Historical
Historical
Historical
Captured in
GDP rather
than general
government
Historical
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Reporting frameworks: differences
• GAAP has an underlying recognition and measurement
framework, audited, independent standard setting – strong
accountability focus
• SNA and GFS have strong economic focus and
presentation/indicators can help decision-making
• GFS and SNA report gains & losses elsewhere (Statement
of Other Economic Flows, Financial Account)
• Statistics NZ publish Local authority data quarterly and
annually then transform into SNA and GFS
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Reporting frameworks and indicators
• GAAP: operating balance; operating balance before gains
and losses; residual cash, net debt; net worth
• SNA: net lending (or financial balance in OECD)
• GFS: net operating balance; net lending (fiscal balance in
Australia); cash surplus, net financial worth; net worth
Net lending subtracts net purchases of non-financial assets
from net operating balance (ie, government S – I)
No net lending counterpart in GAAP
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Treasury’s GFS reporting
• Aim to assist IMF analysis (Article IV and Fiscal Monitor)
• Use GAAP as underlying basis but use GFS presentation
in terms of statements and indicators
• GFS Statement of Other Economic Flows – some issues
still to work through
• GFS cash surplus/(deficit) smaller than residual cash as it
excludes financial asset flows and includes Crown Entities
• GFS net financial worth is different to net debt as it
includes wider set of assets and liabilities (NZSF, ACC,
EQC)
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Comparison between GFS and
GAAP indicators
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Actual
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Net operating balance
(3,461)
(10,061)
(5,405)
(1,304)
2,105
4,035
Fiscal Balance (Net lending/borrowing)
(5,367)
(12,265)
(7,092)
(2,672)
560
2,726
Cash surplus/(deficit)
(5,362)
(12,465)
(11,321)
(5,858)
(1,674)
Net worth
93,955
84,518
77,225
75,875
78,167
82,754
636
9,616
12,334
11,587
8,309
$million
GFS
Net financial worth
(11,005)
(72)
GAAP
Operating balance before gains and losses
(6,315)
(16,728)
(9,741)
(4,097)
(719)
Residual cash
(9,000)
(14,951)
(13,482)
(8,951)
(5,393)
(4,051)
Net worth
94,988
85,519
78,272
76,939
79,251
83,853
Net debt
26,738
41,502
54,872
63,619
68,989
72,875
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1,297
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Reconciliation between GAAP and
GFS operating balance
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Actual
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
$m
Operating balance per GAAP
Remove gains/losses and net surpluses from associates and
joint ventures
(4,509)
(9,437)
(7,293)
(1,350)
2,292
4,587
(1,806)
(7,291)
(2,448)
(2,747)
(3,011)
(3,290)
Operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL)
(6,315)
(16,728)
(9,741)
(4,097)
(719)
(43)
(30)
(419)
(434)
(465)
(560)
Remove SOE portion of OBEGAL (incl. eliminations)
Remove ETS expenses
1,297
80
1,232
692
400
415
422
2,104
2,288
2,575
2,622
2,790
2,833
-
2,689
1,372
222
181
181
Tertiary institutions included on a line-by-line basis
208
209
206
205
205
205
Reserve Bank (equity accounted)
501
275
(94)
(220)
(298)
(340)
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4
(2)
(4)
(3)
Remove impairments and write-offs on financial assets
Remove recognition of large provisions
Other adjustments
Net operating balance per GFS
10
(3,461)
(10,061)
4
(5,405)
(1,304)
2,105
4,035
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Next steps
• Ongoing efforts internationally to harmonise GFS and
public sector GAAP
• Treasury has improved translation from GAAP to SNA for
elements of macro forecasts (eg, public consumption)
• Looking to do the same for other SNA indicators (eg, net
lending)
• Looking at GAAP reporting segmentation (eg, Central)
• Statistics NZ is working on bottom-up GFS series –
starting with Local Government (publish 2009/10 in July
this year) then Central Government then SOEs
• Treasury and Statistics NZ working together on GFS
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