Download The Analysit on Economic Fluctuations Since the Implementation of

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The Analysit on Economic Fluctuations Since the Implementation of
“Six Afforestation Project" in China
ZHAO Jing
Business and Management, Beijing Forestry University, China, 100083
[email protected]
Abstract: Since 1990th, China's forestry situation has shown rapid development. Meanwhile, with the
sustained and rapid economic and social development, there is a growing demand for forestry ecological
benefits. The government pays more and more attention to forestry work, and we attach importance to
forestry ecological construction, but we can not ignore the economic development of forestry. Because
forestry economical development will be directly related to one truth which means whether the forestry
construction can adopt the requirements of the development of market economy. Therefore, the author
uses the economic development of forestry as the research object since the implementation of "Six
afforestation project" in China, and through the analysis of fluctuations in the economic cycle, we do an
analysis on the main features of economic development during this period. we not only measured total
economic output of forestry, but also described the characteristics of the forestry economic development
classified by different stages and different industries, and lay the foundation for further analysis of the
factors that lead to forest economic fluctuations.
Keywords: Economic Fluctuations, Implementation, Six Afforestation Project
1 Introduction
Periodical fluctuations in economic development is the prevalent phenomenon of economic
development. The research on the economic development period is an important method to study
economic development law, Periodical fluctuations theory is an important part of modern western
economics .In the recent years, China's economy world make use of these periodical fluctuations theory
and methods to do a lot of research of our national economy. According to the results, our national
economy in the "Six afforestation Project" (1998-2009 years) has experienced one large cyclical
fluctuations. The reasons for these fluctuations are caused by economic development from both the
interaction of internal and external factors, and there are some reasons based on different periods of
macroeconomic policies. Forestry is an integral part of the national economy, its development and
national economic development are intrinsically linked to each other, and it has its own characteristics
for development.
2 The Measure on Forestry Economic Output Since the Implementation "Six
Afforestation Project"
Understanding on economic development graphics of cycle is the most direct method to understand the
economic cycle. But this method can not accurately determine whether the process of economic
development is a periodical process of development and can not accurately show the number of cycle
characteristics, so it’s just a pre-judgment of mathematical method. Mathematical analysis is the main
research method to the economic cycle, which use the quantitative methods to do the analysis on
quantitative indicators of economic development. Whether the mathematical or intuitive method, you
need to select an economic indicator which represents the process of economic development. In order to
facilitate the analysis, generally use a comprehensive indicator .And for the national economy, generally
use GDP or gross social product .For forestry, mainly use forestry output value as a representative of the
economic development indicators.
The calculation of forestry economic growth is the first step to do cycle analysis. Table 1 is the
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sequential growth rate of output value forest and 3-year moving average growth rate after treatment (in
order to eliminate seasonal and other factors.)
Year
1998
Table 1 Forestry Economics sequential growth rate
3-year Moving
Sequential
Average
Growth Rate
Growth Rate
42.21
23.8
unit: %
Forestry Output
Value
(billion
yuan)
2727.8
1999
16.86
23.54
3187.7
2000
11.54
14.48
3555.4
2001
15.05
13.29
4090.5
2002
13.29
18.27
4634.2
2003
26.46
19.12
5860.3
2004
17.61
16.51
6892.2
2005
5.47
16.34
8458.7
2006
25.93
16.35
10652.2
2007
17.66
19.51
12533.4
2008
14.94
18.01
14406.4
2009
21.43
17493.7
According to the index sequence of Table 1, we can draw Figure 1 of growth rate changes between
1998-2009 in forestry economic. According to Table 1 and Figure 1, we can see China's forestry
economy is cyclical in the change process between 1998-2008 . Overall, the forestry economy in this
period experienced the process of pronounced fluctuations 4 times, and had the larger fluctuations 1
time , which is relatively larger happened between 2002-2006 .Since the implementation of "the six
afforestation project ", forestry economic fluctuations is fierce and stability is not very strong. But the
forestry economic growth showed an upward trend, and is a cycle stage of the forestry economic
growth.
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Figure 1
Chart of Trend of the Economy Growth In Forestry Fluctuations
According to the economic cycle theory, a simple observation from the graph is not always the volatility
of economy cyclical fluctuations, because some non-economic factors can also cause fluctuations in
economic development. In order to identify the process of economic development of forestry is a
cyclical fluctuations, we must make non-random judgement to fluctuations in mathematical logic,
usually “taking a factor out” method. By removing the discriminant factor, we prove that fluctuations of
China's forestry economy is not random between 1998-2008, but caused by the internal laws of
economic development.
3 Strategy of Reducing Periodical Fluctuations in China's Forestry Economy
Through the above analysis on the forestry economic cycle, cycle characteristics and internal and
external factors which have the impact on forestry cycle, we can see the growth of China's forestry
economy is not only a trend, but also an obvious periodical fluctuations. Periodical fluctuations of
China's forestry economy is the result of various factors. Although the forestry’s periodical fluctuations
is an objective reality, it can stabilize the cycle of economic fluctuations through controling various
factors which affect the economic development of forestry . To promote forestry’s health, sustainable
and stable development, and combined with China's national and forestry’s conditions, here is the
recommendations:
According to current strategy of China's forestry development , it indicates that China has entered a very
important period which mainly serves forestry ecological construction .and accordingly, it will involve
business management system and operational mechanisms, and ecological construction, as well as
coordination of economic development and ecological construction .Only solve these problems, the
production target can be successfully achieved .
Fully mobilize the enthusiasm, increase forestry total investment, and strengthen state support and
protection for forestry. As China's current natural resources protection policies and national economy
increases demand for eco-forestry, as well as China's comprehensive national strength, we should
increase investment in forestry, strengthen national support and protection of forest; We should speed up
the reforms to the investment system, improve the investment mechanism and investment efficiency.
The country should gradually increase the financial input of ecological forestry, and give certain
preferential policies to forestry industries. Improve investment conditions, and the government
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strengthen macro-control to forest utilization of foreign capital and managementl; accelerate the
development of forestry industry, and expand the scope of popular participation in forestry construction.
The state encourages cross-ownership of various social subjects, cross-sectoral, inter-regional
investment in forestry development. Qualitified farmers, urban residents, private entrepreneurs,
enterprises, institutions and organizations, groups, cadres and workers, can participate alone or in
partnership in forestry construction.
4 Conclusion
Finally, the stable development of China's economic development for the forestry provides a good
environment, and sustainable development strategies and the western development strategy, focusing on
ecological construction strategy for the forestry provides an unprecedented opportunity for development.
Transformation of government functions and constantly improvement of the market system provides a
basic guarantee for forestry development. The state is continuously improving the quality of labor, and
has increased investment in ecological forestry and provided support and protection, which will play a
decisive role in promoting development. for forestry economy
References
[1]. Wang Liqun. China Forestry Economic Development and Mechanism of factors [D]. Beijing:
Beijing Forestry University, 2001: 10 - 11(In Chinese).
[2]. Wen su. China's forestry economic development [D]. Beijing: Beijing Forestry University, 2006:
15 - 18(In Chinese).
[3]. Zhang da hong. China Forestry Economic Development: Perspective, basis points and means [J].
Green China2005 (2): 24 - 28(In Chinese).
[4]. Wang Yuehua. spreadsheet forestry economic growth [J]. Forestry Economics, 2003 (5): 33 - 35(In
Chinese).
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