Download The Development Path and Strategy of Low-carbonated Logistics

The Development Path and Strategy of Low-carbonated Logistics
------Based on Principal Component Analysis
ZHANG Yinghua, DUAN Xiangyun
Business school, Tianjin University of Finance&Economics, Tianjin, China, 300222
Abstract: Based on the study of influence factors of low-carbonated Logistics, the principal component
influence factors were abstracted by using Principal Component Analysis. This paper studies not only
the development path of low-carbonated Logistics specific to the principal component influence factors,
but also the strategy of low-carbonated Logistics on the basis of the development path. The development
path includes raising energy efficiency, improving energy structure, advancing the level of development
of domestic Logistics as well as exerting the potential of carbon sink.
Keywords: Principal Component Analysis, low-carbonated, development path
1.
Introduction
At Climate Conference in Copenhagen, a commitment to decline carbon dioxide emissions per unit of
GDP had been made by China and since then low carbon concept wildly spread in our social and
economic development. Domestic research on low-carbon is briefly on the aspects of introducing
low-carbonated experience abroad and discussing approaches and potentials of low-carbon economy at
home. However, researches on low carbon logistics have been few done. It is well known that Logistics
is the second-largest oil consuming industry in China, high oil consumption and emissions makes it
being the main object in the activity of energy saving and emission reduction inevitably. Therefore,
establishment of low- carbon Logistics is imminent at present. Under the precondition of revitalizing
development of logistics industry in China, how to reduce carbon emissions with the maximum possible
has become an important research topic for today.
Based on the study of influence factors of low-carbonated Logistics, the principal component influence
factors were abstracted by using Principal Component Analysis. This paper studies not only the
development path of low-carbonated Logistics specific to principal component influence factors, but
also the strategy of low-carbonated Logistics on the basis of the development path.
2.
Analysis of Principal Component Influence Factors in Low-carbonated
Logistics
According to the cause of carbon pollutants and characteristics of carbon itself, the paper argues that the
influence factors of low-carbonated Logistics are: logistics energy structure, logistics development level,
logistics energy efficiency, logistics infrastructure, logistics development speed, demanding growth of
an expanding economic scale, the progress of science and technology and carbon sink ability, etc.
The following index can stand for the influence factors:X1 Proportion of fuel energy consumption to
logistics energy consumption,X2 Per unit of logistics value-added energy consumption,X3 Ratio of
logistics cost to GDP,X4 Forest area,X5 Forest coverage,X6 Logistics fixed investments,X7 Length of
transport route,X8 Ratio of logistics service demand per unit of GDP,X9 Year-on-year logistics
value-added growth,X10 Proportion of R&D funds to GDP. Specific index value is regulated and
calculated according to annual of “China Statistical Yearbook”, “China Logistics Yearbook”, and
“Circular of National Logistics Runnability” promulgated by the National Development and Reform
Commission, the State Statistics Bureau, China Federation of Logistics &Purchasing.
Analyzed the index data from 2004-2008, gave the availability of the above influenced factors, and then
SPSS15.0 is adopted to make the Principle Component Analysis:
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2.1 Variance analysis of common factors
Figure 1 shows that common factor variances are all extracted above 95%, that is to say, 95% of the
original variables are extracted by the principle component.
Initial
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
1
1
1
1
1
Figure1 Communalities
Extraction
0.99
X6
0.953
X7
0.965
X8
0.994
X9
0.994
X10
Initial
1
1
1
1
1
Extraction
0.991
0.992
0.996
0.95
0.999
、
、
2.2 Total variance analysis
Figure 2 shows that the characteristic roots of the first three factors are 6.398 2.124 1.302 (all more
than 1), 63.975% 21.243% and 13.023% of original total variances are explained and their sum
accounts for 98.242% (more than 85% as regulated) . The two aspects proved that three principal
components can be extracted for analysis.
、
Component
1
2
3
4
5
6
Figure 2 Total Variance Explained
Initial Eigenvalues
Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings
Total
% of Variance Cumulative % Total
% of Variance Cumulative %
6.398
63.975
63.975
6.398
63.975
63.975
2.124
21.243
85.218
2.124
21.243
85.218
1.302
13.023
98.242
1.302
13.023
98.242
0.176
1.758
100
4.67E-16
4.67E-15
100
2.10E-16
2.10E-15
100
、 、 、
2.3 Principal Component Analysis
Figure 3 shows that the coefficient of correlation between X1 X3 X6 X7 and the first principal
component seems high; the degree of correlation between X2 and the second principal component
appears high as well as the relationship betweenX4 X5 and the third component is close. That is, the
first principal component mainly includes: X1 Proportion of logistics fuel energy consumption to
logistics energy consumption, X3 Ratio of logistics cost to GDP, X6 Logistics fixed investments,X7
Length of transport route. They are the influences of energy structure on low- carbonated Logistics. The
second principal component embraces X2 Per unit of logistics value-added energy consumption. It is the
influence of energy consumption and efficiency on low- carbonated Logistics. And the third principal
component includes X4 Forest area and X5 Forest coverage. They are the influences of carbon sink
ability on low- carbonated Logistics. We can conclude that energy structure, energy efficiency and
carbon sink ability can be considered as the main influence factors on our low- carbonated Logistics.
、
Figure 3 Component Matrixes (a)
1
X1
X2
X3
0.99
-0.553
-0.8
Component
2
-0.099
0.77
0.571
3
1
0.021 X6
0.233 X7
-8.51E-05 X8
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Component
2
0.993
0.071
0.935
-0.339
0.686
0.519
3
0.002
0.045
0.506
X4
X5
3.
0.718
0.718
0.38
0.38
-0.579 X9
-0.579 X10
0.788
0.7
-0.2
0.691
0.537
0.176
The Development Path of Low-carbonated Logistics
Based on Principal Component Analysis, we can find that the development of our low-carbonated
logistics should not only concentrate on the intensional aspects, but also emphasize the extensional
issues. Low-carbonated Logistics coordinated with the two development paths was listed as follows:
Firstly, improve energy efficiency to realize low consumption. Energy consumption positively correlated
with economic growth and logistics expansion. From 2004 to 2008, energy consumption raised from
15,104 to 22,088 tons of standard coal, which hit 46.24%, with an average annual growth rate 9.25%.
Compared with 13.86%, an average annual growth rate of logistics value, energy consumption growth
rate is 4.61% slightly lower than production value growth rate. Probing into the root of this high energy
consumption, modes of transportation and nodes of logistics appear to be the main causes. At present,
the basic logistics method mainly trusts in automotive road transportation, while, from energy-saving
perspective, long-distance highway transportation is not economic and environmental----Highway is
flexible in the transportation of high added-value goods, passengers and cargo traffic, as for the bulk
supply tariff and bulk freight, the advantage of waterway is remarkable and the airway seems more
suitable for long-distance transportation of passengers between cities. Meanwhile, logistics nodes such
as station, port, storage and park installed in lack of rationalization has resulted in the existing
unreasonable phenomenon—repeated, tangled and invalid transportation. In order to realize low
carbonization and promote low- carbonated economy, logistics energy efficiency is badly to improve.
Secondly, improve energy structure to realize low emission. Matching with the mode of transportation,
our logistics industry mainly consumes fuel oil. In recent five years, as logistics oil share about 60% of
the energy consumption and the high-polluting energy as diesel and gasoline accounts for 50% of the
whole national consumption, high greenhouse gases emission and atmospheric pollution become
inevitable. To improve logistics energy structure, establishment of low carbon energy system, innovation
and development of renewable energy technology, energy conservation and emission reduction
technology are all badly needed. For the energy diversification and cleaning, transformation of the
achievements of low carbon research to the realistic productive forces should be accelerated. Because all
of these rely on scientific and technological strength, we must increase the input of scientific research
and give impetus to R&D of the clean and renewable energy such as nuclear power, hydraulic, wind,
solar, high efficiency transportation and elimination even substitution of GHW energy.
Thirdly, improve development level to realize low pollution. It is imperative to reduce carbon pollution
and promote construction of logistics informationization and standardization, which directly influences
the level of logistics development. As a result of a relative low level, logistics enterprises are incapable
of attending at carbon pollution. Compared with the developed countries, logistics industry in our
country started later and its growth mode is still in the extensive stage of high input and high
consumption. Currently, due to the deficiency of logistics standardization system, logistics network
nodes, facilities and use of apparatus are all affected. Problems have been shown up: incompatibility of
the transportation equipment standard influenced the development of our comprehensive transportation;
unmatched logistics facilities and instruments affected the level of automation and mechanization in the
process of transportation, storage and handling; gap existed between logistics package standard and
logistics facilities impacted the loading rate of transportation, loading factor of equipment and space
utilization of storage, meanwhile, because of the limitation of size and strength of logistics enterprises,
performance network and information network can not be established, let alone global logistics network.
Caused by the lagging status of logistics network and informationization construction, the service
content and facility of logistics enterprises are too simple to carry out the logistics value-added services,
such as comprehensive logistics information service, order management, inventory management,
logistics cost control, logistics and supply chain management, solutions design, which are all built on the
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basis of management software.
Fourthly, exert potential of carbon sink. If the above three aspects of low carbonization belong to the
intensional type of development path, exertion of carbon ability is of an extensional one. Having the
incomparable advantages, forest carbon sink can absorb and reduce carbon dioxide at a really low cost.
Taking the advantage of the forest in carbon reduction has become a consensus among the international
societies---inventory results of the seventh national forest resources reports that our forest area totals
19545.22 million hectares and forest coverage rate reaches up to20.36%. Chinese Academy of Forestry,
according to the inventory results and forest ecological location monitoring results, evaluates and
concludes that annual atmospheric pollutants in forest ecosystem absorption can be 0.32 million tons
and total carbon storage of forest vegetation amounts to 78.11 tons. Yearly worth of only 6 ecological
services have reached 10.01 trillion yuan, roughly equivalent to one third of our current annual GDP .
With the improvement of forest quantity and quality, cultivation of carbon sink forest, enhanced
resources protection management and rational utilization of the forest ecosystem, overall carbon
sequestration ability will be further strengthened. Forest carbon sink is going to play a more and more
important role in the realization of our low- carbonated Logistics and low-carbonated Economy.
4.
Measures to Realize Low-carbonated Logistics
From the analysis of low-carbonated logistics path, we can find that direct reduced-carbon strategy,
including economic and environmental mode of transportation, support of efficient logistics network and
perfect information technology to reduce the energy consumption and improve the efficiency, constitute
only one part of the realization of low-carbonated Logistics. Indirect LC measures, for example, the role
of forest carbon sink, can also be utilized. Here, some low carbon measures can be adopted:
Establish comprehensive transportation system and play the advantage of multimodal transport to reduce
energy consumption. Compared with the single mode of transportation, comprehensive transportation
system with transport capacity of higher efficiency can be regarded as a safe, economical, efficient and
environmental system which is interlaced by an organic correlation of highway, railway, waterway,
aviation and so on. By dividing the responsibilities among different modes of transportation, benefits
can be acquired. It meets the transport demand effectively as well as realizes the most reasonable
utilization of resources. For the establishment of a comprehensive transportation system and in order to
take the advantage of intermodal transportation, an overall planning and optimization of resources are
needed to be carried out and a layout of transportation network should be improved. Meanwhile, to
realize the "seamless docking" of railway, port, airport and highway, effective cohesion of different
modes of transportation ought to be strengthened.
Improve logistics informationization to promote energy conservation and emission reduction. Degree of
logistic informationization has affected the process of low-carbonated Logistics at present, so it needs
logistics enterprises widely apply modern information technology and adopt barcode label, smart tags,
intelligent identification system, logistics management information system and logistics information
routing system to optimize the logistic management. Higher degree of logistic informatization will
enhance actual load rate of storage facilities, optimize transportation route and so on .We can say that an
all-round improvement of logistics management efficiency would brought about energy conservation
and emission reduction in logistics industry inevitably.
Promote construction of logistics standardization to reduce carbon pollution. Only with the normal
market order and under the guidance of logistic management and technical standard, it is possible to
improve the operational efficiency of logistics enterprises. Logistics standardization has become an
important approach for the realization of modern logistics management; a significant means to ensure
quality of products; an effective measure to improve the logistics efficiency and a pass to look abroad.
Relative lagging standardization of our logistics has influenced the logistics operation efficiency and
increased the discharge of pollutants. If logistic enterprises want to increase operation efficiency and
reduce carbon pollution, construction of logistics standardization must be carried forward. Luckily, with
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the joint effort of our government, industry association, logistics enterprises and related enterprises and
on the basis of reference and adoption of advanced foreign logistics standards, logistics standardization
system is gradually formed, first within the supply chains and industry, then on a national scale, and
even expanding to the whole world in future.
Strength technology capacity and push forward R&D of clean energy to reduce carbon emission. As
logistics industry suffers dual restriction from both energy and environment, it becomes urgent to
develop environmental-sound energy, energy conservation technology and optimize energy structure. At
present, as the development of clean energy and environmental protection being a new growth point,
besides more input of R&D to low carbon energy, our government and logistics enterprises should make
great effort to strengthen technology exchanges and cooperation between different countries, establish
long- acting energy cooperation mechanism, make full use of resources at home and abroad, optimize
energy structure and promote clean production and cyclic utilization.
Exert the guidance, accommodation and supervision of government to realize the operation of a virtuous
carbon cycle. The government, through the publicity guidance, could intensify the sense of
responsibilities of society and enterprises, encourage and support all walks of life to participate in the
activity “carbon offset and elimination of carbon footprint”, advocate enterprises to donate funds to
afforestation project voluntarily, raise funding level of afforestation project to promote basic
construction of carbon sink, strengthen forest management, prevent the declination of carbon sink from
disforestation and forest decay and enhance carbon storage, yet, it could levy carbon tax which can be
dedicated to forest carbon sink project from the logistics enterprise of high carbon emission.
5.
Conclusion
The establishment of low- carbon Logistics not only concentrates on the intensional aspects, but also the
extensional issues. To improve the energy efficiency, energy structure, development level and to exert
potential of carbon sink are the development path of our low-carbonated logistics. Accordingly, there are
direct reduced-carbon strategy and indirect reduced-carbon measure to realize low-carbonated Logistics.
Direct reduced-carbon strategy includes establishing the comprehensive transportation system to play
the advantage of multimodal transport, improving the logistics informationization, promoting the
construction of logistics standardization and pushing forward the R&D of clean energy. Besides,
exerting the guidance, accommodation and supervision of government to enhance the capacity of carbon
sink is the indirect reduced-carbon measure.
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