Download Evaluation and Analysis of Coordinated Growth Between Shandong

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Evaluation and Analysis of Coordinated Growth Between Shandong
Province’s Science and Economy
DAI Jinhui, NI Xiang
Shandong Institute of Business and Technology, P.R.China, 264005
Abstract: The unified and opposite relationship between the science and technology and the economy
requires technology and economy to develop coordinately in their development process. This paper is
based on the index system of scientific subsystem’s and economic subsystem’s coordinated development.
Firstly, uses PCA(principal component analysis) to evaluate the comprehensive developmental level of
the scientific subsystem and economic subsystem during 2000-2009. Then, according to the idea about
coordinated development of two subsystems, constructs the System Coordination Degree model and the
Coordinated Developmental Tendency model from the static aspect and dynamic aspect separately.
Meanwhile, according to the standard of coordination degree assessment designed in the model, makes
quantitatively analysis to the coordination situation of Shandong province’s scientific and economic
subsystems’ development. Based on the research findings, put forward some advices to Shandong
province’s scientific and economic subsystems’ future coordinated development.
Keywords: Science and Technology Subsystem, Economy Subsystem, Coordination Degree, Principal
Component Analysis
1 Introduction
Along with the economic development, the effect and influence to economic from technology are
becoming more and more obvious, the developmental condition of science and technology has become
the main influence factor to a local economy development, but the development of science and
technology needs a lot of labor power, financial resources and material resources. Therefore the
development of science and technology depends on economic development. The unitive and opposite
relationship of scientific and economic development in the process requires technology and economic
develop harmoniously. Thus, objectively evaluating the scientific and economic systems’ degree of
coordinated development has important practical significance to promote Shandong province’s
economic development and realize the social system optimization.
2 The Research About Scientific and Economic Systems’ Coordinated
Development Model
2.1 The concept of system’s coordinated development
Coordinating refers to a state of the system that at a certain hour system or system elements reasonable
match or organic combine with each other. Development is the evolutionary tendency of a system that
grows from small to huge, from simple to complex, from unordered to ordered, from low to high under
certain constraints. Systems are changing constantly. Only the relationships between system and system
or system elements are coordinated and ordered, system development can be guaranteed and get the
optimized state. The science and technology and economy are two subsystems, and the two subsystems
interact and coordinated promote each other. So how to reasonably measure the degree of coordinated
development of science and technology subsystem and economic subsystem in different time becomes a
problem which needs to be solved urgently.
2.2 Measurement of technology and the economy subsystem developmental level
Suppose the eigenvector describing the “t”th year’s science and technology subsystem’s developmental
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level is X
= ( x , x ,L, x ,L, x ) , science and technology subsystem is S1,. The eigenvector
t
t1
describing
t2
the
ti
“t”
tm
th
year’s
Y = ( y , y , L, y , L, y ) ,
t
t1
t2
ji
tn
economic
subsystem’s
economic subsystem is S2
developmental
，x ,y
ti
tj
level
are the “tth
is
year’s
indexes of the two subsystems, “m” ,“n” are themselves’ subsystem’s index. Make the “kth year’s
developmental level as the analytic fixed number of years of multiplexed system, and standardize the
index
x
ti
,
1
1
x = ( x − x ) / s , of x = ∑ x , s =
∑ (x − x)
k
k
k
*
ti
ti
i
k
ti
i =1
i
2
ti
i =1
Use the SPSS and do PCA (principal component analysis) to subsystem S1’s eigenvector
X = ( x , x , L, x , L, x ) t=1,2,…,k. Get the eigenvector’s related coefficient matrix “R”.
t
t1
t2
ti
tm
λ > λ > L > λ > 0 and there are relevant
orthogonalizing eigenvector: e = (e , e , L, e , L, e ), i = 1,2, L m .Figure out the
variance accumulative total contribution rate: α
= λ / ∑ λ on the basis of the formula. Due
R’s characteristic roots are
1
2
t
t1
m
t2
ti
tm
m
i
i
i
i=1
to principal component selection principle of the variance accumulative total contribution rate
i
we
get
the
ahead
P
principal
component
scores:
∑ α ≥ 85 %
i=1
i
F (t , x ) = F (t , x ) ⋅ α + F (t , x ) ⋅ α + L + F (t , x ) ⋅ α
1
1
2
P
2
p
The same way to the comprehensive developmental level of the economic subsystem S2
: F (t , y ) = F (t , y ) ⋅ β + F (t , y ) ⋅ β + L + F (t , y ) ⋅ β , l < n
1
1
2
2
P
l
l is the number of economic subsystem’s principal component. β , β , L , β are variance
contribution rates of every principal component.
Due to the comprehensive developmental levels of PCA’ s subsystems S ，S may be positive or
1
l
2
1
2
negative ,we try to avoid the effect from negative to the nether analysis. Make the exponent to F(t,x)and
F(t,y). Because of the monotonicity of exponent, there is no effect on analyzing subsystems’ relative
dispersions. So we can use F ′ t , x , F ′ t , y to indicate comprehensive developmental levels.
(
)
(
)
F ′ (t , x ) = exp( F (t , x )), F ′ (t , y ) = exp( F (t , y ))
so
F ′(t , x ) > 0, F ′(t , y ) > 0
，
2.3 Science and technology subsystem’s degree of coordination model
Define the subsystems S1
S2 ‘s static degree of coordinated development at the moment “t” is
min ( F ′(t , x ), F ′( t , y ) ) obviously, 0 < G t ≤ 1 .
G (t ) =
()
max ( F ′(t , x ), F ′(t , y ) )
The subsystems S1
，S
2
F ′(t , x ), F ′(t , y ) are
F ′(t , x ), F ′(t , y )
‘s static degree of coordinated development
G (t )
equal, the system’s static coordinated level is the best,
G (t ) =1.
are different a lot, the system’s static coordinated level is worse,
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means :only
When
G (t )is less.
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Tab. 1
System static coordinated degree and system coordinated state
G (t )
0 < G (t ) ≤ 0.8 0.8 < G (t ) ≤ 0.9 0.9 < G(t ) ≤ 1
coordinated state
Not coordinated
Basic coordinated
coordinated
2.4 Degree of coordinated development tendency
The system static coordinated degree G t of subsystems S1 and S2 at the moment “t” only reflects the
()
static degree of the coordinated developmental degree but not the dynamic degree of the coordinated
development degree. Thus, define the subsystems S1 S2 ‘s dynamic coordinated developmental degree
G t , t at the moment “t” reflects dynamic coordinated developmental tendency during sometime.
d
(
1
1
d
)
n
G (t , t
，
n
1
∑ G (t
t − t +1
n
)=
i =1
1
n
G
d
(t , t )
1
reflects the average dynamic coordinated developmental tendency of subsystems S1 ,S 2 at
n
[ t , t ] .Obviously, 0 < G (t , t ) ≤ 1.
the between
1
When
)
i
G (t , t
d
between [ t
1
1
,t
n
n
n
d
) > G (t , t ) ,
d
steady between [ t
1
,t ]
n
d
n
n −1
1
] ; When G
1
it means coordinated developmental tendency is rising
(t , t ) = G (t , t ), it means coordinated developmental tendency is
1
n
;When
tendency is descending between[t
d
n −1
G (t , t ) < G (t , t
d
1
1
1
n
d
1
n −1
),
it means coordinated developmental
, t ].
n
3 Shandong Province Science and Technology and Economy Coordinated
Development Empirical Analysis System
Combine the research model of coordinated development degree of the application system with
Shandong’s science and technology and economy subsystems’ development characteristic. Then make
the Shandong province’s science and technology and economy coordinated development level research.
First, analyze comprehensive developmental level of technology and the economy according to the
principle of principal component analysis. On scientific system, selects corresponding index from
technology investment, technology output and technology resources three aspects to make eigenvector
of science and technology development, including: technology activities personnel, science and
technology activity funds expenditure, the R&D funds, scientists and engineers account the proportion
of technological activities personnel and technological achievements, number of patent application
awarded quantity, clinch a deal amount of technology market contract number, colleges and universities
full-time teachers number; On economic system mainly selects corresponding index from Shandong
province’s economic development gross, economic structure and economic development potential three
aspects to make eigenvector of economic development, including: Shandong per capita GDP, industrial
gross, provincial finance income, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society, the total export
commodities, fixed assets investment price index, fixed assets investment of GDP, the third industrial
output value of GDP. Choose the data from 2000 to 2009 in Shandong province, analyze and figure out
science and technology and economic comprehensive development level (see table 2)
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Table 2 Shandong province science and technology - economy system comprehensive development level
values
years
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Science and technology -1.1450 -0.8283 -0.6794 -0.3957 -0.1846 0.2392 0.2877 0.9224 1.4144 1.3321
economy
-1.0145 -1.0112 -0.8970 -0.4600 -0.0195 0.2960 0.3788 0.6000 0.9876 1.1398
From table 2 we find that Shandong province’s science and technology and economy system’s
comprehensive developmental level is straight rising. Science and technology are developing straightly
from 2000 to 2009 .They are coordinated developing and promoting each other.
Table 3 Shandong science and technology - economy system static coordination degree
years
G (t
)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0.8776
0.8328
0.8045
0.9377
0.8478
0.9448
0.9130
0.7244
0.6526
0.8251
Table 4 Shandong science and technology - economy system dynamic coordination degree
years
G
d
(t , t )
1
n
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0.8776
0.8552
0.8383
0.8632
0.8601
0.8742
0.8798
0.8603
0.8373
0.8360
Table 5 Shandong science and technology - economysystem dynamic coordination state
years
G
d
(t
1
,t
n
) / G (t
d
1
,t
n −1
state
)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
—
0.97
0.98
1.03
1.00
1.02
1.01
0.98
0.97
1.00
— RecessionRecessionIncreasedSmoothIncreasedIncreasedRecessionRecessionSmooth
coordination degree
coordination degree
0.89
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
0.88
0.87
0.86
0.85
0.84
0.83
0.82
0.81
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Years
Chart 1 Shandong science and technology- economy
system static coordination degree
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Years
Chart 2 Shandong science and technology
–economy system static coordination degree
From table 3 and chart 1 we find: Shandong province’s science and technology and economy system is
coordinated when it is greater than 0.9 at 2003, 2005 and 2006,is basic coordinated when it is between
0.8~0.9 at 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004 and 2009, and is not coordinated when it is less than 0.8 at 2008.
According to static coordinated degree we can figure out Shandong province’s science and technology
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and economy dynamic coordinated degree(see table 4) .
From table 4 and chart 2 we get: Shandong science and technology - economy system’s coordinated
developmental degree is descending during 2000-2002 and 2006-2009, but it is rising during
2002-2006.This situation shows that science and technology and economic system is not always
coordinated, it is undulate.
From table 5 we get: Shandong science and technology - economy system dynamic coordination state is
descending at 2001 2002 2007 and 2008.But it is rising from 2002 to 2006 and it is steady at 2004 and
2009.The descending and rising tendencies are not very obvious, close to steady state.
、 、
4 Conclusion
1. During 2000-2009, Shandong province’s science and technology developmental level and economy
developmental level have improved a lot. Science and technology and economy development is basic
coordinated. Technology promotes economy meanwhile the economy supports technology, and it make
science and technology and economy get effective coordination.
2. On Shandong economic system and technology system coordinated situation, in addition to 2007 and
2008, the development of both shows the good related coordination; That is to say, from the current
Shandong economic developmental and scientific perspective, the technology conditions basically can
support economic developmental speed and scale.
Project sources:
1. Shandong province key research topic of statistical scientific research (course code: KT1035)
2. Shandong social science planning project (course code: 10DJGJ19)
3. Shandong soft science (course code: 2010RKGB2173)
References
[1]. Yan Linsen. “Based on the theory of system of Shanghai science and technology with coordinated
development of economic system [J].journal of scientific progress and countermeasures”, 2010 (2):
37-39.
[2]. Ren Ruoen “multivariate statistical analysis - theory, method and examples [M]”. beijing: national
defense publishing company, 1997.
[3]. Gu Peiliang, Zeng Zhenxiang, “The sustainable development of system analysis and evaluation
[M]”. Beijing: science publishing company, 2000.
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