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475
Advances in Environmental Biology, 6(1): 475-480, 2012
ISSN 1995-0756
This is a refereed journal and all articles are professionally screened and reviewed
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Survey relationship between GDP, energy and foreign trade and greenhouse gas
emission in Iran (Case Study Gas co2)
Elham Tayari and Amin Reza Jamshidi
Department of Agricultural Mechanization, Islamic Azad University, Shoushtar Branch, Shoushtar, Iran
Elham Tayari and Amin reza jamshidi: Survey relationship between GDP, energy and foreign trade
and greenhouse gas emission in Iran (Case Study Gas co2)
ABSTRACT
Co2 gas emissions with the current relationship between GDP, Iran's energy consumption and foreign trade
for the period 1971 - 2007 And the environmental Kuznets curve Using their regression model with distributive
lag (ARDL) is reviewed. Results from estimating the dynamic model showed that short-term, Energy
consumption per capita, Real GDP per capita, The positive impact of economic openness, Negative and
significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions per capita. The results also indicate the estimated long-run
equilibrium, Energy consumption per capita and the degree of openness of the economy in the long term effect
on the level of carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, future levels of variables can be predicted based on their
past values. Given the trend of rising carbon dioxide emissions per capita in Iran, It is necessary to adopt new
environmental policies Order to reduce environmental degradation. The model presented in this study, Increased
energy consumption and GDP growth is a concept, Increased pollution due to emissions of carbon dioxide is
increasing. However, there is a reduction in GDP Because this variable reduced the level of investment and
employment in the economy decreases.
Key words: Greenhouse gas Co2, GDP, Energy, Foreign Trade, Environmental Kuznets curve, ARDL.
Introduction
The increasing threat of global warming and
climate change has been the major, world-wide, ongoing concern in the last two decades. The impacts
of global warming on the world economy have been
assessed intensively by researchers since the 1990s.
World-wide organizations, such as the United
Nations, have been attempting to reduce the adverse
impacts
of
global
warming
through
intergovernmental and binding agreements. The
Kyoto protocol is such an agreement that was signed
in 1997 after hefty discussions. It is a protocol to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UFCCC) with the objective of reducing
greenhouse gases (GHG) that cause climate change.
The Kyoto protocol identifies constraints to
environmental pollutants and requires a timetable for
realizations of the emission reduc- tions for the
developed countries [1,2,19].
Given that energy consumption in Iran in recent
years, upward journey And the scope of Iran's trade
relations with other developed countries The main
cause of greenhouse gas emissions, Energy spread
And fossil fuels in different economic sectors is,
Evidence that a positive relationship between energy
consumption and improve macro-economic variables
exists. Improving macro-economic variables due to
the growth of energy consumption, widespread
contamination are Caused. The relationship between
economic variables such as environmental pollution
associated with energy between these variables. GDP
is one of the key economic variables. Which is
considered the benchmark of economic growth. The
relationship between economic growth and
environmental pollution over the past two decades
has been widely analyzed [3,4].
Narayan et al [22], other factors besides the
economic growth that is important in publishing Co2,
Is energy.
Say and Yucel [26] the relationship between
energy consumption and carbon dioxide gas issued in
Turkey in the period 2002-1970 studied Qrardadnd.
For this purpose, total energy use Economic growth
and population growth and the two main important
factor are in energy consumption in developing
countries, Was determined, The relationship between
total energy consumption and emissions Co2 using a
regression analysis, were studied. The results showed
a strong relationship exists between energy
consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.
Jalil and Mahmoud [20] the relationship between
carbon emissions and energy consumption, Income
Corresponding Author
Elham Tayari: Department of Agricultural Mechanization, Islamic Azad University, Shoushtar
Branch, Shoushtar, Iran
Tel: +989163100019;
E mail: [email protected]
476
Adv. Environ. Biol., 6(1): 475-480, 2012
and trade in China The data were analyzed for the
period 2005 -1975.
Apergis and Payne [10] The relationship
between carbon dioxide emissions, energy
consumption and output And vector error correction
model using the panel for six countries in Central
America were examined for the period 1971 -2004,
The results showed that The long-term energy
balance positive and significant are impact on carbon
dioxide emissions. Li and Hewitt [21] The impact of
trade between China and Britain on global and
national carbon dioxide emissions in 2004 were
evaluated. The results showed that carbon dioxide
emissions in the United Kingdom, As a result, the
trade association11 percent compared with the
absence of trade declined in 2004. Azomahou et al
[12] empirically The empirical relationship between
per capita GDP and per capita carbon dioxide
emissions Gazdy In the period 1960 -1996 using a
panel of 100 countries examined. The results
confirmed the correlation between two variables can
be positive and increasing.
Halicioglu [19] The empirical relationship
between carbon, Energy, Foreign business income in
Turkey For the period 1960 - 2005 examined. The
results of long-term dynamic relationship between
carbon dioxide emissions and the above variables,
Showed that income, Dartryn variables explain the
meaning of Turkey's carbon emissions. Energy
consumption and foreign trade are the next in rank.
Grossman and Kruger [18] in the early stages,
Economic growth is causing environmental
degradation But after a certain level, Economic
growth, improve the environment.
Selden and Sung [25], Panayotou [23],
Gradually increase the economic growth of the goods
and services, Have greater incentives to protect the
environment as priority and the most important
political program increases.
According to studies conducted in many
developing countries and developed Significant
relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, one
of the major environmental pollutants, Growth and
economic development and expanding international
trade, there are products.
Cole and Elliott [13] in research related to
environmental degradation, and concluded that free
trade Increased domestic production will increase air
pollution This competition between companies in the
business In order to eliminate unnecessary energy
consumption industries to reduce environmental
pollution Has created.
Therefore it is necessary Noting that developing
countries on the eve of Iran's accession to WTO And
the expansion of trade, GDP per capita as an
indicator of the changing relationship between
economic development And the degree of openness
of the economy as expanding international trade,
With carbon dioxide emissions be considered.
This study investigated the relationship between
the presence or absence of carbon dioxide emissions
and the environmental Kuznets curve is based on the
GDP. Kuznets in an article in 1955 between per
capita income and income inequality as a U-shaped
curve predicted. Thus the increase in income
inequality in per capita income increases But after
reaching the maximum point, Will decline. The
relationship between per capita income and income
inequality in the form of a bell curve will be. Later
became known as Kuznets curve, this curve .This
paper, using the same framework, The relationship
between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy and
international trade coupled with assessment data.
Greenhouse gas emissions are closely related to
energy consumption in various sectors of the
economy. This relationship has been studied by
researchers in different countries. In order to analyze,
distribute, or break your method will be widely used.
The results correlation between carbon dioxide
emissions and GDP, energy and international trade in
the short and long term will be determined.
Materials and Methods
Earlier, a common method for estimating the
regression equations in econometrics was the method
of least squares. In this method it is assumed that the
time series variables used are stable. But many
researchers believe that most economic time series
variables are unstable. Unstable as a variable means
that the mean, variance and covariance is not
constant over time And in particular to change their,
The model variables are unstable. Although the
parameters may be estimated by ordinary least
squares method has a significant T statistic from F
statistics and coefficients of determination (R2) are
high, But, Because of least squares estimation does
not follow a normal distribution, statistical inference
based on conventional statistics would be wrong.
Note that both the overall research on the
relationship between GDP, energy consumption and
environmental pollution there. First, the relationship
between product and energy consumption is
concerned. First, the relationship between product
and energy consumption is concerned. Since the
product is the benchmark of GDP, Economic growth
in energy consumption will be closely linked.
Therefore, more efficient energy consumption will
lead to higher economic growth. The second aspect
of the relationship between environmental pollution
and the amount of product is concerned. This test is
used primarily by the hypothesis of environmental
Kuznets. The development status of Iran and Iran's
accession to the WTO, Study the relationship
between carbon dioxide emissions, energy
consumption, GDP and foreign trade relations with
the Kuznets curve is studied. Logarithmic equation
as in equation (1) is given.
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Adv. Environ. Biol., 6(1): 475-480, 2012
Cot   0  1et   2Yt  3Yt 2   4Opt   t
(1)
In equation (1) Cot carbon dioxide emissions per
capita, Yt real GDP per capita, Square Yt2 real GDP
per capita And the degree of openness of the
economy at time t is Opt. Degree of openness of the
economy following indicators are used. Interface (2)
shows how to calculate.
Xt  Mt
GDPt
Opt 
(2)
In the above equation Xt, Mt and GDP,
Respectively represent the real value of exports and
 co t   0 
m
  1i  co t  i 
i 1
m
  2 i  et  i 
i0
imports of goods and services and GDP can be. In
the present paper to determine the degree of the
economy as a measure of international trade
between, The third indicator that is more commonly
used. The data used in this study is related to the
period 1971-2007 A variety of sources such as
energy balance, the Central Bank of Iran and the
World Bank have been collected. Due to the nature
of the data used in this study, it is necessary to
evaluate the reliability of the variables. For this test
Dicke - Fuller has been used. To investigate the
effects of environmental pollution from their
widespread use has distribution interval. The above
model for equation (1) can be related to the number
(3) stated.
m
  3i  yt i 
i0
m

i0
m
4i
 y 2ti 
  5 i  f t  i   6 co t 1   7 et 1   8 y t 1   9 y 2 t 1  10 o p t 1  U t
(3)
i0
Based on the number (5) the dependent variable
under the influence of this variable and other
variables are constant. One of the features of their
regression model with distributive lag (ARDL), the
estimated coefficients to balance the long term. But it
is necessary to be false, and no long-term equilibrium
values obtained must be examined. In other words, to
investigate whether the balance between short-term
dynamic is whether long-term trends. For this test
method is used in this study. Alternative assumptions
of this method and the relation (4) is defined.
m
H 0 :  i  1  0
i 1
(4)
m
H  :   i  1 0
i 1
There is no indication of the accumulation or
long-term relationship. If the sum of the coefficients
is less of a dynamic relationship tends to be short
term to long-term equilibrium. For the first test case
is based on the t statistic (5) is calculated.
m
t 




S
i
i1
m
i1
(5)


i
If the absolute value of t according to equation
(5) is larger than the critical value, There is no
rejection and long-term relationship between
variables be
accepted. Now if accumulation
variables in the model, the short-term fluctuations
between variables and values of can relate to longterm equilibrium. This allows the correction model the error is possible. The general form of pattern
correction - errors for equation (5) into equation (6)
can be expressed.
m
m
m
m
i 1
i 0
i 0
i 0
coi  0  1i cot i  2i et i   3i yt i   4i y2t i
m

i 0
5i
(6)
opt i   ECt 1  Ut
In relation (6) α parameter adjustment speeds
approaching the speed desired or long-term
equilibrium size of the to ECt-1 and the estimated
residual sentences Cumulative model (1) is obtained.
Results and discussion
Test results related to the Dicke Fuller to
investigate the reliability of the variables used in
equation (1) in Table 1 are shown.
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Adv. Environ. Biol., 6(1): 475-480, 2012
Table 1: Reliability of the variables:
Variable name
ADF statistics
Cot
0/0097
et
1/41
Yt
-1/64
Y2t
-3/17
Opt
-4/37
Critical ADF statistic at 5% level = -2/9
Optimal lag
0
0
1
1
0
Test results of Dicke - Fuller shows,Additional
variables in the model of accumulation, Is a
combination of zero and one. Equation (7) The
results of short-term dynamic model to estimate the
ADF statistic by
subtracting the first
order
-6/11
-4/22
-3/94
-
Optimal lag
The variable
degrees of mass
0
0
0
-
I(1)
I(1)
I(1)
I(0)
I(0)
relationship between energy consumption and
promote international trade between ¬ the carbon
dioxide emissions per capita show.
(-1/98)
(/59)
(0-1/78)
(/11)
(02/73)
(2/88 ) (0/74)
Cot=1/49+0/51 Cot (-1)+0/17 et + 0/00009 -0/00037 Yt (-1)-0/000000042 Yt-0/98 Opt
R2=0/93
DW=1/96
F-Stat=66/38
R2=0/91
The reported values in parentheses represent t
statistics and significance of each coefficient
estimate shows. Given the above statistics on all
variables in the model except for the intercept and
the second the effect on real GDP per capita
emissions of carbon dioxide is a pollutant. Of these
variables can affect the per capita GDP and other
variables negative effect on per capita emissions are
carbon dioxide gas. Since carbon dioxide gas
released at the end of a period to period is not
completely absorbed And some form of storage
medium remains , Release of carbon dioxide
pollution per capita during the period are also
affected. Most energy used in production processes,
Especially manufacturing and services industries are
the source of fossil energy and the form factor is the
carbon dioxide emissions. The energy increase in
carbon dioxide is released in one country. Increase in
real GDP per capita production of goods and services
is increasing. Increased production of goods and
services, production inputs such as energy
consumption increases. Energy to increase the carbon
dioxide gas released in each period leads and
emissions in each period of accumulation in the
environment, pollution levels per capita in the period
after that impressed. Imports of intermediate goods
as well as countries that consume their products, they
are not in production. Consequently, any
contamination due to the production of goods not
produced in the country. The different levels of
contamination in the production of export goods to
impose their own community. Depending on the
content of any contamination of goods (imported or
exported) is higher, International trade in carbon
dioxide emissions will have a positive or negative
effect.
In the course of the import and export of goods
and services in Iran is the expansion of international
trade between the per capita level of contamination is
reduced. The coefficients of the dynamic model of
short-term, It is necessary to estimate the long-term
presence or absence of the accumulation coefficients
between the variables in the model is investigated.
For this purpose, and using relations (4) and (5) The t
statistic is calculated
t
(0 / 5  1)
 3
(0 /17)
(8)
Given that the absolute value of the critical value
table Bnrjy computational statistics, and Master
Dvlalv (-2/94) is large, There is also no evidence of
accumulation between the model variables. The longterm relationship between the variables of the model
is confirmed. Long-term results of estimating
equation
(9)
have
been
reported.
(0/67)
(7/5)
(0/55) (-1/63)
Cot=3/1+0/35 et - 0/00056 yt-0/0000008722 yt2 - 2/04
Values of t statistics in parentheses indicates the
significant variables were entered in the show's longterm equilibrium. The values of t statistics, only two
variables per capita energy consumption and the
degree of economic openness on long-term balance
of carbon dioxide emissions have a significant effect
. In the long run equilibrium relationship between per
(7)
(9)
capita energy consumption in each period has a
positive effect on per capita carbon dioxide
emissions. And the degree of openness of the
economy reflects the expansion of international trade
of goods and services, is negative.
Accumulated due to the variables in the model
under consideration, In the case of short-term
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Adv. Environ. Biol., 6(1): 475-480, 2012
fluctuations in the data path will be returned to their
long-term equilibrium. Quickly approaching longterm relationship based on equilibrium correction
model the error is calculated. Equation (10) to
estimate the above model for the study show that.
(0/74) (2/73) (0/11)
(0/59) (-1/98) (-2/69)
DCot=1/49+0/17 Det +0/000096 Dyt +0/000000096 Dyt2 - 0/98 Dopt -0/48 ECM (-1)
=0/45
DW=1/96
F-Stat=4/78
R2=0/33
ECM coefficient in equation (10) represents the
speed of adjustment towards the balance of long-term
dynamic model. In the present study, this coefficient
is equal to the 48/0- level of 99% is statistically
significant.
8.
9.
Conclusion and recommendations:
10.
Study the relationship between carbon dioxide
emissions, energy consumption, GDP and
international trade of goods and services is
examined. For this purpose, the interruption of their
widespread distribution is used. The results showed
that short-term dynamic model to estimate the per
capita energy consumption, real per capita GDP and
openness positively impact the economy and
significant negative impact on per capita emissions
are carbon dioxide. Results of the estimated longterm balance shows per capita consumption of
energy and the degree of openness of the economy in
the long term effect on the level of emissions is
carbon dioxide.
11.
12.
13.
14.
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