Download 13.8% Steady U.S. Economic Growth After a Severe Recession Inflation-adjusted GDP (billions)

Exhibit 1
Steady U.S. Economic Growth After a Severe Recession
Inflation-adjusted GDP (billions)
$17,000
$16,000
$15,000
13.8%
$14,000
Cumulative growth
2009 to Q3 2015
$13,000
$12,000
$11,000
15
20
14
Q
3
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
20
00
$10,000
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Annual to Q3 2015 revised Dec 22, 2015
Exhibit 2
Annual Inflation-Adjusted Growth in U.S. Economy
and Private Investment, 2010 to 2015
Inflation-adjusted growth (percent)
14.0%
Real GDP
Real private domestic investment
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inflation-adjusted. Dec. 22, 2015.
Notes: GDP = gross domestic product. Annual rate 2010 to 2014; Q3/Q3 2014/15 annual.
2014
Q3 2015
Exhibit 3
U.S. Economic Growth Rivals or
Exceeds Other High-Income Countries
Real GDP growth rates, 2011–14
2011–12
2012–13
France
2013–14
2011 to 2014
Japan
Germany
UK
Canada
US
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Source: World Bank database; accessed Sept. 2015.
Real GDP = Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product. U.S. GDP is revised.
8.0%
Exhibit 4
U.S. Jobs Up More than 13 Million Since 2010,
5 Million Above Pre-Recession Peak
Total nonfarm employment to December 2015 (millions)
2015
143.2
150
2008
145
138.0
140
135
130
125
2010
120
129.8
115
110
105
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonally adjusted. Establishment, Release 1/8/16.
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
100
Exhibit 5
Unemployment Rate Drops from 9.9% to 5% by 2015
U.S. unemployment rate (percent)
10%
8%
6%
4%
01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 01/15
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly seasonally adjusted household to Dec. 2015. Released Jan. 8, 2015.
Figure generated online, http://www.bls.gov/ces/data.htm.
Exhibit 6
U.S. Private Jobs Increased by
Nearly 14 Million, While Public
Employment Declined
Change in employment, March 2010 to December 2015 (millions)
15
13
13.4
12.0
11
9
7
5
3
1
1.9
-1
Private
goods
Private
services
-0.5
Government
Total
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted.
Released Jan 8, 2016.
Exhibit 7
Full-Time Jobs Account for All Net Job
Growth from March 2010 to End of 2015
People employed (millions)
Full time
Part time, choice
Part time, economic reason
150
120
125
119
122
19.4
19.9
9.1
6.7
5.9
March
2010
December
2014
December
2015
107
100
75
50
25
0
19.1
4.8
March
2008
19.9
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Household series, nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted,
Release Jan 2016.
Notes: Part-time work is 34 hours or less. “Part-time economic reason” includes unable to find
full-time work or poor business conditions.
Exhibit 8
Job Growth Has Been
Similar for Firms of All Sizes
Percent distribution of private jobs,
by number of employees
Employees
100%
250+
90%
100–249
80%
70%
52.5
53.7
10.3
10.2
7.9
7.9
29.3
28.1
2010
2015
50–99
1–49
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Business Employment
Dynamics through Q1 2015. Modified Nov 2015. Distribution of
private sector employees by firm size.
Exhibit 9
Little Growth Seen in Inflation-Adjusted
Average Weekly Wages, but 2015
Pace Picks Up
Change in real weekly wages (percent)
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.9%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.8%
1.5%
2.1%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Cumulative
March 2010–
October 2015
March 2010–
October 2014
October 2014–
October 2015
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Real weekly earnings, seasonally adjusted for private nonfarm
employment. Series uses urban consumer
price index to adjust wages for inflation. Data released Nov. 17, 2015.
Exhibit 10
Annual Health Spending Growth Slows to Rate of GDP
Growth for Four Years (2010–13), But Rises in 2014
Percent change (annual)
NHE
GDP
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NHE = national health expenditures.
Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Historic and Projected National Health Expenditures. Updated July 2015.
Exhibit 11
Lower 10-Year CBO Medicare Projections,
August 2015 vs. January 2010
Projected Medicare spending (millions)
January 2010
August 2015
2020
$1,200
$1,038
$1,000
$800
2020
$600
$400
$200
$852
$186 billion
Cumulative difference 2010–2020: $1 trillion
Difference in 2020 projected Medicare spending:
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Sources: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2010 to 2020, Jan. 2010; CBO, An Update to the Budget and
Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025, updated Aug. 25, 2015.
Exhibit 12
Marked Slowdown in Medicare and Private Spending
Growth per Enrollee
Medicare
Percent change in spending growth per enrollee
7
6.5
6
5
Privately insured
4.7
5.1
5.4
5.8
5.4
5.4
4.4
4
3.7
3.7
3
2.7
2.2
2
2.1
1.5
1
0
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.2
2013
Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, Table 17, July 30, 2015, with projections.
2014
Exhibit 13
Medicare Hospital Admissions for Potentially
Preventable Conditions Down 25 Percent
Ambulatory care–sensitive hospital admissions per 1,000 beneficiaries
Age 75+
ACS ages 65 to 75
90.0
87.2
70.0
66.0
50.0
36.8
30.0
26.9
10.0
2007
2008
2009
Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Public Use File.
2010
2011
2012
2013
Exhibit 14
Health Care Sector Gained 1.4 Million Jobs Since
March 2010, Mainly in Ambulatory Care
Ambulatory
5.1
March 2005
1.5
3.0
Nursing and residential
2.8
4.7
6.9
June 2015
0.0
4.3
5.9
March 2010
Hospital
3.1
4.9
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
3.3
10.5 12.0 13.5 15.0
Jobs (millions)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonally adjusted establishment, June 2015 Preliminary, July 5, 2015.
Exhibit 15
Sharp Drop in Uninsured in
All Nonelderly Age Groups
Following Affordable Care
Act’s Insurance Expansions
2013
2014
18.5%
15.3%
14.3%
12.0%
7.5%
6.2%
All Under 65
Under 19
19-64
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Health Insurance Coverage in the
U.S.: 2014, Current Population Reports, Sept. 2015.
Exhibit 16
What if Future Increases in U.S. National Health
Expenditures Are Limited to Rate of Economic Growth?
National health expenditures (trillions)
Health spending growth, 2014–2024:
$42.4 trillion if same as GDP growth rate;
$45.3 trillion if same as CMS projections.
19.6%
of GDP
Cumulative
difference:
$2.9 trillion
$5.0
17.4%
$4.5
of GDP
$4.0
Based on CMS
NHE projection
$3.5
IF NHE growth at
same rate as GDP
$3.0
$2.5
Actual
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
$2.0
Source: Author’s analysis based on data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Office of the Actuary, 2014-2024 National
Health Expenditures (NHE), projected July 2015; http://cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/
NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsProjected.html.