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Welcome to ICAEW’s Economic Insight: South East
Asia, a quarterly forecast for the region prepared
specifically for the finance profession. Produced by
Cebr, ICAEW’s partner and acknowledged experts
in global economic forecasting, it provides a unique
perspective on the prospects for South East Asia
over the coming years. We focus on the largest
economies of the Association of South East Asian
Nations (ASEAN) – namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Cheaper commodities to force ASEAN
out of mining and towards more
skill-intensive growth
This report discusses the employment and skills
situation in the ASEAN economies. It focuses
first on productivity – how much output each
worker produces – and then moves on to consider
the number of workers, driven by demographic
factors such as the size of the population and
the participation rate among women. The global
context of deflationary pressures and the reduced
attractiveness of commodities versus other exports
in early 2015 frames the discussion.
Economic Insight
South East Asia
Quarterly briefing Q1 2015
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE
The recent collapse of the price of oil, currently
below $50/barrel, is of critical importance to
ASEAN. Several South East Asian economies had
the good fortune to be sitting on large commodity
resources while China’s appetite for these resources
increased exponentially. Exports of hydrocarbons,
along with other raw materials, surged on the
Chinese construction–investment boom. But
prices of oil, coal, rubber and copper have all
collapsed. Mining projects are being cancelled. At
first sight this is problematic but it also presents
an opportunity. Malaysia’s Budget Revision speech
acknowledged the problem for Malaysia, a net oil
exporter, while expressing the expectation that
global economic improvement would boost exports
of manufactured goods. These account for 76%
of total exports. Global conditions will help, but
conscious development of capacity there ensures it
is not left to chance.
Most ASEAN governments subsidise fuel, to a
greater or lesser extent. The recent oil price drop
does this job for them, allowing spending to
shift from cheapening consumption to driving
investment. Indonesia and Malaysia are leading
this change.
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Despite its huge reserves, Indonesia is a net oil
importer. The new president, Joko Widodo, cut fuel
subsidies in November 2014 and raised investment
in health, education and infrastructure. The policies
are therefore complementary. The former is now
politically far easier, and the latter more urgent as
developing new competitive industries is the only way
to prevent Indonesia’s persistent trade deficit from
increasing. Meanwhile, Vietnam spends about $4bn
on fuel subsidies – around 2% of GDP – a price tag
its government can ill afford. In June 2014 the UN
Development Programme urged Vietnam to phase out
the policy and channel the savings into investment.
Singapore’s Workplace Development Agency provides
subsidised or free courses to workers. Malaysia’s Human
Resources Development Fund provides assistance
to employers upskilling their workers. Malaysia and
Singapore changed their labour-relations strategy to
pursue higher-value added industries when they were
ready to move into the next phase of their development.
After pursuing a cost-containment, cheap-labour
strategy, they moved to emphasise ‘skills development,
workplace flexibility, and productivity’.1 The Malaysian
Government embarked on a transformation plan for
both public and private sectors, including services as a
key sector.
The major effects of the commodity crash on ASEAN
are therefore a reduced attractiveness of exporting
raw materials, combined with a reduced cost of fuel
subsidies. Oil subsidisers benefit from the expanded
fiscal room, while commodity exporters will be under
pressure to diversify to maintain export earnings. While
China’s growth provided a ready-made, virtually limitless
market for raw materials, the clear implication of its
deceleration is to shift focus to higher-value exports.
Improving education and infrastructure are already
ASEAN governments’ priorities. The region must seize
this opportunity to pursue them.
Vietnam currently competes on cost. As many
technology multinationals are currently investing in
Vietnam in order to transfer production there, the
country would benefit from maintaining low-cost
production in the near future. However, like South Korea,
Singapore and Malaysia before it, the natural next step
will be to ascend up the value chain as wages start to rise
and skills improve. In pockets, this development is visible
in Vietnam. But it will take time for this to spread across
larger sections of the economy. It will also rely on the
development of the requisite skills such as engineering,
science and programming. The government has
launched initiatives to train more accountants. For this
reason, education becomes an essential determinant
of productivity after a certain threshold is reached.
Vietnam’s higher education is patchy, though it has an
advantage in strong foundation-level education.
Productivity: raising the quality of labour
To raise national output through the labour market,
most tools at governments’ disposal fall into one of two
categories. They can increase the size of the labour force,
or they can raise labour’s productivity, meaning that a
worker’s output per hour expands. ASEAN economies
have tried both over the past. The performance on
productivity has been, by any yardstick, remarkable.
Figure 2: Singapore leading South East Asia on school
enrolment rates and mathematical skills
100
700
90
Figure 1: On productivity, Vietnam outpaces the
competition in South East Asia
600
80
500
70
Output per worker by country, 1991=100
60
400
50
300
250
40
300
30
200
20
200
100
10
150
0
Indonesia
100
Philippines Singapore
Pre-primary enrolment
50
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
United States
Vietnam
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
Secondary enrolment
1991
0
Malaysia
Singapore
Source: International Labour Organisation, Key Indicators of the Labour Market
(ILO KILM)
All the major ASEAN economies achieved faster
productivity growth than the US between 1991 and
2012, with the exception of the Philippines. The
‘convergence’ hypothesis – a core tenet of development
theory which predicts that poor countries’ productivity
should catch up with rich ones – is often defied in
practice. It broadly holds here, though: Vietnam, the
poorest of the group, exhibited a remarkable 184%
growth over this period, equivalent to 5% per year;
Thailand managed 85%. Even Singapore and Malaysia,
already relatively productive at the beginning of the
period, achieved improvements in productivity of 81%
and 80% respectively.
Singapore and Malaysia invest substantial resources into
productivity growth.
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Thailand United States Vietnam
Primary enrolment
Average
0
Primary survival rate
PISA score, maths (2012)
Source: UNICEF Global databases, OECD Programme for International Student
Assessment (PISA). Latest available year; some data unavailable for certain
countries
Singapore has one of the world’s best education
systems. The OECD’s Programme for International
Student Assessment (PISA) score puts it below only
Shanghai (evaluated separately to the rest of China)
and Hong Kong. Education has been prioritised since
independence and the Economic Development Board
now intends to treat higher education as an export. It
planned to attract 150,000 foreign students per year to
Singaporean universities by 2015: with 75,000 coming in
2014 it is likely to fall short, although it has still increased
numbers by 150% compared to a decade ago.
Vietnam’s education system ranks far ahead of peers
with similar income. It is in the top 20 for all three
subjects (maths, reading and science) in the OECD’s
PISA, ahead of most European countries and the US.
As in other former communist countries, one legacy
was higher literacy and numeracy rates than would be
expected at a relatively low income level.
ECONOMIC INSIGHT – SOUTH E A ST A SIA
Q1 2 015
Labour force: increasing the quantity of labour
However, for many years Vietnam failed to exploit this
asset economically as its trade remained largely closed.
The economy opened up in the 1980s, expanding its
trading partners beyond the Comecon bloc, devaluing
the dong and incorporating a limited role for the
market alongside central planning. The results of this
transformation on output per worker are clearly visible
in Figure 1. Despite the strong performance on some
indicators, Vietnam still has serious need for reform in
education. Economists point to the mismatch between
skills and the needs of the economy. The index of
dissimilarity2 between supply of skills and demand for
them is 17.0% – higher than the world average (for
countries that report data), which is 15.8%.
While boosting productivity is a powerful way to raise an
economy’s GDP per capita, it can be fatally undermined
if the proportion of the population in work falls at the
same time. We turn from examination of productivity –
or the quality of the labour force – to a look at its size.
Governments that have a strong focus on economic
growth, notably Singapore but also Malaysia, have tried
policies aimed at expanding the labour force.
Singapore boosts its labour force at the same
time as making rapid productivity gains
Vietnam’s productivity boom runs alongside
rise in skilled job categories
Figure 3: ratio of skilled to unskilled jobs in workforce
(where 1 represents equal numbers of each), and %
increase in ratio over timeframe.
76%
2.5
80%
70
2.0
60
52%
50
1.5
1.0
40
28%
26%
24%
30
17%
20
0.5
10
Indonesia
Malaysia
2001 (2007 in Indonesia)
Philippines
Singapore
latest available year
Thailand
Vietnam
0
% increase in ratio
Source: ILO KILM
Figure 3 uses employment by occupation data to calculate
the share of the workforce in relatively skilled occupations
(managers, professionals, technicians, clerks) compared
to unskilled occupations (shopworkers, craftworkers,
agricultural workers, plant workers and elementary
workers). The precise distinction is manual/non-manual,
to avoid difficulties categorising levels of skill. All these
economies, except Singapore, have ratios below one,
indicating their workforces are predominantly unskilled. This
helps to fill in the link between education and productivity:
the structure of the workforce changes to allow higher
value-added activities. Vietnam again sees the highest
increase at 76%, attesting to this pattern. This demonstrates
creation of a tier of more highly skilled jobs between 2001
and 2012, as Vietnam continued its transition from an
agrarian to a manufacturing-based economy.
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190
170
150
130
110
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
United States
Vietnam
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
90
1991
The ASEAN economies all have more pressing problems
at the higher end of the educational system. Universities,
which provide many of the technical skills needed to
move from the assembly to production stages of the
value chain, or from the production to the design stages,
remain underdeveloped.
210
1990
The picture above, based on enrolment and survival
rates (ie, starting and completing school), fails to capture
all aspects of education. For example, Indonesia has a
large rural/urban disparity, not highlighted by taking an
average figure. Rural Indonesians in 2007 had 8.5 years
of schooling on average, with the equivalent for their
urban counterparts 10.3. Clearly, quality of education also
matters as much as the enrolment rate. Indonesia used an
earlier oil export boom (c.1970–1996) to build many new
schools. However, it lacked sufficient qualified teachers
and had to resort to hiring poorly qualified or unqualified
staff, which permanently lowered the standard of
instruction.
Figure 4: Labour force in ASEAN economies, 1990–
2013 (ages 15–64, 1990 =100).
Singapore
Source: ILO KILM
It is little wonder that Singapore has one of the highest
per-capita incomes in the world. Since independence, as
well as finding ways to successfully raise productivity, it
has also managed to expand the labour force. Although
part of this is population growth, much is due to more
of the working-age population participating in paid
employment.
In order to expand their total employment, governments
can either:
a) raise the population through immigration;
b) raise the birth rate of the indigenous population;
c) raise the participation rate (the proportion of those
of working age who are in employment or seeking
employment); or
d) move workers from informal to formal employment
– while not expansion per se, this is a very important
issue for some ASEAN economies.
ASEAN’s population has grown at a consistent and rapid
pace, which has driven the trajectory of the labour force in
Figure 4. Although governments have made attempts at
influencing variables c) and d), which are acknowledged
as problems to different degrees in the region, they
have mostly not needed to devise ways of increasing the
working-age population.
The exception is Singapore. Following a successful
policy of reducing the birth rate until 1988, it then
realised that fertility had fallen below the replacement
rate. It has since worked at, and achieved goals a), b)
and c). Its growth plan to 2030 relies on a policy white
paper which forecasts 30% population growth, though
political opposition may lead to a dilution of this target.
Singapore’s policy has been generally liberal regarding
immigration, recognising the benefit of allowing cheaper
foreign labour from its ASEAN neighbours. However,
recently it has curbed inward migration of unskilled
ECONOMIC INSIGHT – SOUTH E A ST A SIA
Q1 2 015
workers, which could place upward pressure on wages
in some sectors and alters a situation that companies
are accustomed to and rely on. The establishment of
the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) this year may
liberalise labour flows, but mainly for skilled workers.
Policymakers in ASEAN recognise the advantages for
productivity of free movement of factors of production.
Labour is especially important, given that development of
skills is otherwise slow.
For the indigenous population, Singapore disburses grants
to new parents. A secular decline in the birth rate appears
to have alarmed policymakers, and their response has
been characteristically proactive – and relatively successful
– compared to other low-fertility OECD economies.
Most other economies in the region will feel under no
pressure to follow suit, as their population growth remains
relatively high.
While the other ASEAN economies benefit from growing
populations, they face a difficulty in the ‘brain drain’,
which deprives the labour pool of much of its greatest
talent. In the Philippines, this has long been a problem,
with an estimated 10% of its population working abroad,
including many doctors and nurses. The Philippine
economy is partly compensated through remittances, but
most of the productivity gains accrue to the developed
economies in which these emigrants live. In Malaysia,
many skilled workers leave: 295,000 did in 2012, of only
4.3m Malaysians working in skilled occupations.3 The flow
to Singapore, which accounts for over half of Malaysian
emigration, is likely to intensify as the AEC harmonises
regulations for skilled labour.
Currently, Malaysia and the Philippines cannot compete
with Singaporean or US wages. But brain drains have been
reversed before. India and China now provide counterexamples, with emigrants returning in large numbers.
Fortunately for the countries currently losing out, those
who have moved abroad do return to their home
countries, despite a wage cut, so long as their sector of
expertise exists there. The key is integrating domestic
high-tech centres into the international network, so that
potential returnees can do so without fear of regression
in their career. Providing incentives such as grants for
knowledge businesses is a starting point. Creating clusters
of businesses in areas with good-quality infrastructure
can catalyse the development of a viable new sector in an
economy, particularly if those with the requisite education
exist. There is little point in investing in upgrading higher
education
systems
to
cope
with
the
new
economy,
Y1990
Y1991
Y1992
Y1993
Y1994
Y1995
Y1996
Y1997
Y1998
Y1999
Y2000
Y2001
Y2002
Y2003
Y2004
Y2005
Y2006
Y2007
Y2008
Y2009
Y2010
Y2011
Y2012
Y2013 if
those workers will simply leave to start a career elsewhere.
Thailand’s participation rate plummets while
Singapore achieves a turnaround
Figure 5: Participation rates in ASEAN economies,
1990–2013 (15–64, 1990 =100).
110
105
100
95
90
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
United States
Vietnam
Singapore
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
85
Economies across East Asia face a problem with
participation rates, particularly for women. Female
rates have a stronger effect on variation in the overall
participation rate as the male rates tend to be very stable.
Even the most developed East Asian economies lag
behind other OECD countries – Japan’s rate is just 49%,
despite comparable levels of female education. On the
basis of comparison with similar economies, Singapore’s
female participation has a further six percentage points
to grow, according to Acting Minister for Social and
Family Development Chan Chun Sing.4 Ironically, a
proposed reason for Singaporean women’s relatively
low participation has been the success of the scheme
subsidising parenthood, which evidence links to a lower
likelihood of working.5 However, the importance of
cultural norms must not be underestimated, especially as
this problem afflicts the whole region.
Malaysia’s female participation level is the lowest in
ASEAN, only 47%, and it has barely budged over the
period. The government took initial steps to bolster
participation in 2012 through the introduction of flexible
hours, working from home and provision of childcare
centres at work. It aimed to reach 55% participation by
2015, but appears likely to fall short: nevertheless, these
types of gender-equality initiatives will likely remain on
the agenda for Malaysian firms, given that fewer than
100 of the centres had been built by 2013. They have
coincided with a modest uptick in female participation.
While research is needed to investigate whether policy
caused this uptick, investing in initiatives of this sort
would appear beneficial.
Thailand’s female participation rate has fallen sharply
over the period. This drives not only the fall in overall
participation visible in Figure 5, but also the gentle
decline in the size of the Thai labour force until 1994 and
its slow growth thereafter (Figure 4). Luckily the Thai
female participation rate fell from a high starting point: its
current level is still the second-highest in the region, after
Vietnam but above the US.
Informal employment is another important challenge. The
OECD estimates6 that this year, 60% of total employment
in ASEAN is informal, meaning that workers have no
contract, little legal protection, few employment rights
and are unlikely to pay taxes. Workers in the informal
economy tend to have lower productivity than those in
formal employment, although some studies find that the
effect is negligible when controlling for the different types
of jobs that tend to fall into each category7.
Of total employment in Vietnam, only about 35% are
wageworkers, making it difficult for the government to
include the other 65% in its voluntary social insurance
scheme 8 . On the other hand, there is evidence that the
difference between informal and formal employment
is becoming less salient, including the fact that some
professionals are simultaneously practising both.
ASEAN’s recent experience demonstrates a variety of
strategies being implemented across different aspects of
the labour market. These economies’ performance has
been strong in terms of raising the quality of their workers
and raising the number in work, unsurprising given the
region’s consistently impressive growth rate. Productivity
improvement has been uniformly strong, at least since
the Philippines’ reforms spurred it out of stagnation
around 2000. Each country has seen its labour force grow
alongside a rapidly expanding population. However,
looking beneath this trend reveals that participation has
been less impressive – female participation could easily rise.
Source: ILO KILM
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ECONOMIC INSIGHT – SOUTH E A ST A SIA
Q1 2 015
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)
unexpectedly eased monetary policy, following recent
moves towards looser policy by several other major central
banks – notably the European Central Bank and Bank of
Japan. The Singapore dollar, the main instrument, was
constrained to a more gently sloped band of appreciation
against other currencies. Business confidence has fallen
in Singapore to its lowest level since 2013. Global and
regional factors were cited: a slowdown in global trade
volumes is likely, given Japan and Europe appear to
be stagnating. Exports to China will also be curtailed;
China’s recent GDP figures show the slowdown in growth
proceeding as planned. Away from economic news,
the country also begins a year-long celebration of its
independence, which it attained 50 years ago.
Underlying cultural drivers are important, but some
targeted reforms such as making workplaces more childfriendly could speed up the process. Tackling the brain
drain poses greater challenges, but is not intractable. It
will require more investment in those sectors that workers
are leaving.
Informal employment is also likely to be a problem that
lasts some time. Governments will need to reach out
to those sectors of the economy and offer the same
skills training opportunities that are available to regular
workers. An OECD initiative recommends governments
‘give attention to strategies that facilitate the transition
of entrepreneurs and self-employed from the informal
economy into the formal economy’9.
Plans drawn up now will prove pivotal to the region’s
ability to improve future performance. It has shown
excellent growth over the past two decades, but China’s
contribution to that cannot be overestimated. Cebr
does not expect China to experience a hard landing,
unsustainable property price growth notwithstanding.
We expect deceleration and a shift to domestic
consumption-led growth over the coming years. South
East Asia’s response must involve developing the skills that
can replace commodities as sources of export earnings,
which requires long-term planning and investment now.
Thailand remains in the grip of political unrest and
animosity between its two political factions. Former Prime
Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was jailed following a trial
over her involvement in a flagship rice-subsidy scheme,
whereby farmers received guaranteed payment above
market rates. The scheme was economically inefficient,
however, some are questioning whether the impeachment
was politically driven. Thailand’s unrest last year led to a
sharp hit to its usually healthy growth, which was around
0.7% for 2014. The junta will be hoping that the verdict
does not spark a repeat of last year’s protests – a large
security presence and strict curfew have so far prevented it.
Recent developments in the ASEAN region
In November, Indonesia axed a large subsidy scheme,
and is moving towards releasing resources for investment
elsewhere – signs that President Joko Widodo can deliver
on his manifesto promises. Total fuel subsidies are worth
$21bn, or 13% of the budget. The challenges of working
against the entrenched establishment, and prospects of
regulatory gridlock, had led to some scepticism about his
prospects of success; the scrapping of the fuel subsidy
even brought protests. But the move gives promise that
his programme of reform – which the electorate gave a
strong democratic mandate – may gain traction. To be
successful, more regulation and policy will be needed
in the area of tax and governance, and regulation that
mandates all entities to produce financial reports annually.
This gives Cebr confidence to maintain the strong
forecasts for Indonesia made in 2014.
Malaysia’s planned goods and services tax (GST), due
to come into force in April, continues to spark debate. A
World Bank economist has suggested the list of exempted
items be shortened, to offset the fiscal squeeze that the
oil-price fall will create. The GST has been controversial.
Consumers in Malaysia were recently reported to be the
least confident in the region; a fact attributed in part
to the tax. Hence reducing the exemption list would be
politically difficult.10 Many Malaysians are concerned that
the tax will put upward pressure on the inflation rate.
December in the Philippines saw typhoon Hagupit/‘Ruby’
cause destruction in Tacloban and many other areas hit
by Haiyan last year. Fortunately, better planning and
the weaker force of Hagupit meant that the number
of lives lost was much lower. Infrastructure problems
persist, threatening the Philippines’ stellar growth rate,
and blackouts are foreseen next year. A focus on this
area over the next year, made possible partly by strong
public finances, should enable the islands to pursue a raft
of infrastructure projects. The Philippine public–private
partnership (PPP) centre has 26 approved construction
projects, collectively worth $24.5bn11. This could greatly
improve its infrastructure, rated just 91st out of 144
countries worldwide by the World Economic Forum.
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Vietnam continues to cement its place as a major
electronics producer, as the cost advantage moves out
of China as wages there rise. Samsung has increased its
direct investment in the economy by around 40% to
$12bn. Vietnam’s latest GDP figures show a strong 6%
gain during 2014, on preliminary estimates, boosted by
a 13.6% gain in exports. The government’s credit ratings
were also raised last year. However, the fall in oil prices
now threatens its fiscal position.
Thailand to see better growth than last year,
but not hitting past rates yet
Figure 6: forecasts for GDP growth between 2015 and
2020.
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Indonesia
2015
Malaysia
2016
Philippines Singapore
2017
2018
Thailand
2019
Vietnam
2020
Total ASEAN
(ASEAN-6 plus Brunei,
Cambodia, Laos and
Myanmar)
Source: Cebr analysis
ECONOMIC INSIGHT – SOUTH E A ST A SIA
Q1 2 015
1 Kuruvilla,
‘Linkages Between Industrialization Strategies and Industrial Relations/Human Resource Policies: Singapore,
Malaysia, the Philippines, and India’
2
This measures the disparity between the chances of being unemployed for workers with different educational levels. If
unemployment is evenly spread, it suggests the problem lies with overall deficiency of demand rather than inappropriate
skills. Disparity suggests lower-educated workers’ skills are not well adapted to the economy’s needs.
3
Penang Monthly, ‘Brain Drain in Numbers’, 27 July 2014
4
The Straits Times Singapolitics. ‘Be realistic about raising labour force participation rate’
5
Abdullah, Abu Bakar & Abdullah, ‘Fertility Model and Female Labour Force Participation in Selected ASEAN Countries’
6
Martinez-Fernandez & Powell, ‘Employment and Skills Strategies in Southeast Asia’
7
Pratap & Quintin, ‘Are labor markets segmented in developing countries? A semiparametric approach’, 2009
8
Vietnam’s Labour Market Update, Q1 2014
9
Martinez-Fernandez & Powell, ‘Employment and Skills Strategies in Southeast Asia’
10
The Global Consumer Confidence Index, Nielsen
11
Wall Street Journal, ‘Philippines Strives for Public-Private Solution to Infrastructure Woes’, 22 January 2015
Cebr
The Centre for Economics and Business Research is an independent consultancy with
a reputation for sound business advice based on thorough and insightful analysis.
Since 1993 Cebr has been at the forefront of business and public interest research.
They provide analysis, forecasts and strategic advice to major multinational companies,
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