Download Simon Haberle

Environmental change
and cultural response in
the Pacific islands over
the last millennium.
A view from the margins
Simon Haberle, Atholl Anderson, Geoff Hope,
Matiu Prebble, Nick Porch, Iona Flett, and Michael Gagan
Climates for Change in the Pacific
MWP
LIA
Key Issues
• Is the “AD1300 Event” significant enough to impact
on human society in the Pacific region?
• Need to understand the nature and extent of impact
of climate change and variability on the environment
through time
- local to regional
• Need to be able to distinguish in the biotic record
processes associated with human activity from
natural processes
- requires records with temporal and spatial resolution
comparable to processes being examined (~decadal)
Climates for Change in the Pacific
Hypothesis I
Colonisation
Hypothesis II
Population growth
Reduced mobility
HUMAN
IMPACT
Settlement
Agricultural expansion
Resource depletion
Territoriality
Monumental structures
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Climates for Change in the Pacific
Pacific archaeology-palaeoecology reveals a set of cultural changes
during the Holocene that may have been linked to the influence of
climate change (Haberle & David 2004, Quaternary International.)
Palau
Galapagos Islands
Papua New Guinea
Atherton Wet Tropics
Rapa
Juan Fernandez Arch.
Criteria for identifying human response
to “AD 1300 Event”
Criteria
Climate proxies record shift around AD 1300 + 50
Chronology + 50yr accuracy
Unprecedented natural system change following Event
Cultural change identified soon (<300 yr) after Event
No comparable cultural change precedes Event
Most parsimonious explanation
Cultural trend (Cu) or Climate Event (Cl)
A
B
C
D
E
F
Climate setting
Crossequatorial
flow south
Jan ITCZ
SE Trades/
Monsoon
Climate setting
Jun ITCZ
Crossequatorial
flow north
SE Trades
El Niño and Fires
Dry
The most intense fires took place
in 1997- 1998 in association with
the strongest El Niño event of the
20th century
ITCZ
Palau
al
ys
is
Palau earthworks
An
Ngerc hau Core 14
C
ed
nd
et
re
D
M
M
14
ag
C
ne
t
sa
ic
m
pl
es
su
sc
ep
t
or
re
ib
i lit
sp
o
y
(k
)
nd
en
ce
(a dd itional a nalysis b y Ha b erle a nd Pre bb le )
an
gr
es
ov
s
ee
Tr
d
an
r
sh
ub
s
H
b
er
s
C
to
yr
m
er
sp
C
Depth
cm
10
0
5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
sp
r
ha
.
co
n
co
al
c.
(× 10 mm 2 /cm 2)
(% )
0
a
5
0
5 10 15 20
Pollen
Zone
440+40
N-3
100
200
2150+40
2580+60
2460+60
2850+60
1370+40
Monuments 1800-1500 BP
Deforestation 2800-2500 BP
Colonisation 3300-3000 BP
3840+90
N-2
• Widespread deforestation visible ~200 yr
after colonisation
5200+60
300
400
4010+50
3900+60
3850+60
N-1
• Monumental earthworks develop >1000
yr after colonisation
500
4010+60
600
Peaty
silt loam
Gleyed
Clay
Peat
Organic
silt loam
(Po llen da ta from Athe ns a nd Ward 2002)
• Move toward social complexity and longdistance interaction in last 1500 years
and particularly from 600 BP. Took a
different form in each major island group.
Highlands of Papua
New Guinea
The highland valleys are found along the
main cordillera of inland New Guinea
between an altitude of 1200 – 2000 m asl.
Intensive agriculture supports a population
of over 3 million people there today.
7000 yr of independent agricultural
development involving innovation in crop
domestication,
fertilisation
and
hydrological management.
Casuarina oligodon is a
nitrogen fixing tree that is
commonly planted throughout
the highlands and used for
multiple purposes (house,
fencing material, crop shade,
fallow tree).
Highlands of Papua
New Guinea
Casuarina
h
h h
h h
h
Baliem
h Palaeoecological
records showing
Casuarina rise after 1500 yr BP
Telefomin
•Loss of local forest cover led to
adoption of silvicultural techniques
to compensate for loss of forest
resources and depleted
nitrogen levels.
Tari
Nurenk
8
•Began 1500 yr BP and
proliferated after 600 yr BP
4
Kainantu
0
12
10
8
6
3
4
Age (10 yr B.P.)
2
0
Wet Tropics of
NE Australia
•Aboriginal
occupation
in
the
rainforest
required
knowledge
of toxic plant processing and
management of open patches
Occupation intensified around 700 yr BP
Wet Tropics of
NE Australia
Macro-charcoal Accum. Rate
Charcoal record at Lake Euramoo
reflects rainforest burning and disturbance
LIA
600
1997
x x
‘86
500
‘58 ‘42 ’10’-02
x x
MWP
1685
xxxx xx
1380 1190-1210
x
1890
x
xxx
1000-950 AD
x xx
• Greater burning/disturbnace during MWP
and transition
400
300
• Low burning/disturbance during wet LIA
200
Threshold
Mean
100
0
Depth (cm)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 100 110 120 130 140
Rapa
Tukou
• Archaeological record spans ~800 yr BP
(Kennett et al, 2006)
• Monumental
structures
commence
around AD1450-1500, some 250 yr after
first
colonisation,
and
become
widespread by AD1750
Rapa
Tukou pollen record
Monuments 450-200 BP
Deforestation 700-600 BP
Colonisation 800 BP
Eastern Pacific Islands Project
Stepping stones or barriers for human migration?
Isla Coco
Galapagos Islands
Desventuradas Islands
Easter Island
Chicken brought to
Chilean coast around
620 yr ago
(Storey et al. 2007)
Juan Fernandez Islands
Isla Santa Maria
Isla Mocha
El Arenal
Juan Fernandez
Archipelago
•No
evidence
for
pre-Colombian
occupation of the Juan Fernandez Arch.
Juan Fernandez
Archipelago
550 BP
1200
Altitude (m)
1000
Inocentes
500 BP
800 Tree line
600
La Piña
7900 BP
400
200
0
3600 BP
Plazoleta del Yunque
9300 BP
Ch
ar
co
al
1400 BP
Fo
re
st
He
rb
s
Range of Historic Variability (RHV)
analysis suggests unprecedented (for
last 9000 yrs) ecosystem changes
have occurred only since European
settlement of the islands.
RHV
(PCA axis 1&2)
ns
r
Fe
RHV
(PCA axis 1&2)
Galapagos
Islands
Archaeology
Palaeoecology
•No evidence for pre-Colombian occupation
of the Galapagos Is.
Galapagos
Islands
Quinine Bog
1200
Calendar years BP
-60
1000 Fern-sedge
600
400
200
zone
50
100
1440
1940
y = 0.5036x + 28.561
y = 0.1429x + 53.999
150
200
y = 0.1427x + 52.668
250
300
350
0
940
0
De pth (cm)
800
440
400
210Pb
Individually calibrated 14C
WMD cal 60-80
WMD cal 80-360
Linear (210Pb trend)
Linear (WMD cal 80-360)
Linear (WMD cal 60-80)
2440
Galapagos
Islands
1200
1000 Fern-sedge
800
zone
600
400
200
0
Laguna Espumilla
Laguna
rage
0yrs
e
0
v
1
a
Age ev ents/ Espumilla ax is 1 v from
a
A ion de
XRF
chBP)
C
les
o
P
c
(cal
c
i
t
t
a
F
r
a
c
a
l
c
lp
Pal
mifi 1)
E XR
Lag
SA(PCA
Huaxis
Tot a
Laguna Espumilla
XRF analysis
0
0
100
100
200
300
200
300
400
400
500
500
600
700
600
700
800
800
900
900
1000
1100
1000
1100
1200
1200
1300
1300
1400
1500
1400
1500
1600
1600
1700
1700
1800
1900
1800
1900
2000
2000
2100
2100
2200
2300
2200
2300
2400
2400
0
8
16
24
0-70 yrs
70-575 yrs
575-2450 yrs
32 -1.0
0.0
1.00.1 -0.3
2.0 -0.7 -1.1 0
0.5
500 1000 1500
)
)
ded
Laguna
ded
n
n
e
e
r
1
e tr
det
(Espumilla
xis on (d
a
n
s
Age catio
ten
C Aificati
P
n
P
i
i
f
XRFRF - Hum
mi
edXRF
r
uBP)
(cal
a
H
X at
h illa
e 1)
eat
illa axis
coc
P
(PCA
m
P
m
a
u
u
c
Q
p
Q
ll
p
Laguna Espumilla
XRF analysis
YEARS AD
SC YEARS AD Es
2000
2000
1800
1800
SC
Pa Es
Human
Occupation
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
Natural
Processes
800
0.7
0.2
-0.3
-0.8-1.0
0.0
0.7
1.0
0.2
2.0
-0.3
0 -0.8
50
10 0 15
0 20 0 1.0
25 0
-1.0
0.0
2.
Climates for Change in the Eastern Pacific
Laguna
Laguna
Laguna
Climate
ge Quinine Bog Charred
ge
e
yrs scale
a
l
a
r
r
0
a
e
e
c
0
v
s
v
a
rey Pallcacocha
Humification
Asteraceae
Pallcacocha
m
rey
ts/1 hEspumilla
g
g
om a
o
n
r
r
3
3
is 1 Zones
e
a
a
f
f
x
v
h
a
e
v
v
m
c
m
c
e
e
c
c
a
o
o
A
d
d
c
s
s
Particles
(events/100yr)
XRF
PC
coch Pallcac
t ion Age
ti cle ficat ion
allca
ti cle (reda intensity)
a
F
r
r
a
c
P
a
a
l
c
R
l
i
p
p
a
f
a
n
l
P agu n
mi (cal yr b2000)
mi --- dry) Tot al
E X axis 1)
Tot a Hu(wet
Lagu
Lag
SA(PCA
L
0
0
100
100
200
300
200
300
400
400
500
600
700
AD 1425
70-575
wet yrs
500
600
700
800
800
900
900
1000
1100
1000
1100
1200
1200
1300
1300
1400
1500
1400
1500
1600
1600
1700
1700
1800
1900
1800
1900
2000
2000
2100
2100
2200
2300
2200
2300
2400
2400
5 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.1 0
0-70 yrs
500 1000 0.5
15000.1
2000
4000
4500
502500
100 3000
150 200
0 4500
8
-0.32500
-0.7 3000
-1.1 03500500
1000
150002000
3500250
4000
dry
575-2450 yrs
-1.0200 250
0.0
016 5024100 32
150
1.0
2.0
Climates for Change in the Pacific
Laguna
Laguna
Laguna
Euramoo
ge Quinine Bog Charred
ge
e
yrs scale
a
l
a
r
r
0
a
e
e
c
0
v
s
v
a
rey Pallcacocha
Humification
Asteraceae
Pallcacocha
m
rey
ts/1 hEspumilla
g
g
om a
o
n
r
r
3
3
is 1 Charcoal
e
a
a
f
f
x
v
h
a
e
v
v
m
c
m
c
e
e
c
c
a
o
o
A
d
c
c
h
s
s
Particles
(events/100yr)
XRF
PC
on d Age
ti cle ficat ion
allca
ti cle (reda intensity)
acoc a Pallca
F
r
r
c
P
a
a
l
R
l
icat i
p
p
a
n
l
P agu n
mi --- dry) Tot al
E X axis 1)
(cal yr b2000)
Tot a Hu(wet
Lagu
Lag
SA(PCA
L
200
300
400
400
600
700
AD 1425
AD 1380
500
600
700
900
1000
1100
1000
1100
1200
1200
1300
1300
1400
1500
1400
1500
1450
800
900
950
800
1600
1600
1700
70-575 yrs
450
500
AD 280
1700
1800
1900
2000
2000
2100
2100
2200
2300
2200
2300
2400
2400
500 1000 0.5
15000.1
2000
4000
4500
502500
100 3000
150 200
0 4500
8
-0.32500
-0.7 3000
-1.1 03500500
1000
150002000
3500250
4000
1950
1800
1900
0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.1 0
0-70 yrs
-1.0200 250
0.0
016 5024100 32
150
1.0
2.0
575-2450 yrs
400
200
300
300
100
200
100
-50
0
100
0
0
Criteria for identifying human response
to “AD 1300 Event”
Criteria
A
B
C
D
E
F
Climate proxies record shift around AD 1300 + 50
X
X

?
X

Chronology + 50yr accuracy
X
X


X

Unprecedented natural system change following Event
X

X



Cultural change identified soon (<300 yr) after Event




?
?
No comparable cultural change precedes Event
X
X
X

X
X
Cu
Cu
Cl
Cl
Cu
Cl
Most parsimonious explanation
Cultural trend (Cu) or Climate Event (Cl)
Conclusions
• Climate change around AD1300 may not be regional nor
synchronous across the Pacific
• Major change recorded AD1380-1425 in some records from Eastern and
Western Pacific islands some >30-80 yr after the AD1300 Event
• Some islands (and societies) where more vulnerable than others
• Thresholds in societal and ecosystem change may only be breached on
some islands (including “circumscribed ecosystems” such as rainforest)
• Chronology is critical
• Striving for maximum resolution (temporal and spatial) is essential in
arguing cause and effect of climate change on human society through time
• Developing rigorous hypothesis testing will be required to move
the debate forward
Age
YEARS
AD
(cal
BP)
)
Quinine Bog Laguna
Laguna
Palmyra
ed
nd
e
r
t
Humification Espumilla
Pallcacocha
coral
de
is 1
ax
n(
sity
o
n
A
i
t
n te
XRF - PC
fica
di
mi
at
Pe
Hu
e
ar
ch
o
c
llca
F
XR
li la
m
CQ --- dry) E(
spPCA axis 1)P(ared intensity)
(Swet
u
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
0.7
0.2
-0.3
-0.8-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
0
50 100 150 200 250
(d18O)
Laguna
Pallcacocha
(events/100yr)
Eastern Pacific Palaeoclimate
Laguna
Laguna
Laguna
ge Quinine Bog Charred
ge
e
yrs scale
a
l
a
r
r
0
a
e
e
c
0
v
s
v
1
a
a
y
/
re Pallcacocha
Humification
Asteraceae
Pallcacocha
m
rey
ts hEspumilla
g
g
om
o
n
Age
r
r
3
3
is 1
e
a
a
f
f
x
v
h
a
e
v
v
m
c
m
c
e
e
c
c
a
o
o
A
d
d
c
s
s (red scale)
Particles
(events/100yr)
XRF
PC
coch Pallcac
t ion (cal BP) parti cle ficat ion
allca
ti cle
a
F
r
a
c
P
a
l
c
R
l
i
a
p
a
f
a
n
l
P agu n
mi
mi --- dry) Tot al
E X axis 1)
Tot a Hu(wet
Lagu
Lag
SA(PCA
L
0
0
100
100
200
300
200
300
400
400
500
600
700
AD 1425
70-575
wet yrs
500
600
700
800
800
900
900
1000
1100
1000
1100
1200
1200
1300
1300
1400
1500
1400
1500
1600
1600
1700
1700
1800
1900
1800
1900
2000
2000
2100
2100
2200
2300
2200
2300
2400
2400
5 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.1 0
0-70 yrs
500 1000 0.5
15000.1
2000
4000
4500
502500
100 3000
150 200
0 4500
8
-0.32500
-0.7 3000
-1.1 03500500
1000
150002000
3500250
4000
dry
575-2450 yrs
-1.0200 250
0.0
016 5024100 32
150
1.0
2.0
200
400
0
4
EL NINO
EVENTS
1000 YR
NUMBER
ARCHAEOLOGICAL
DATES
CHARCOAL
POLLEN
Age
(cal yr BP)
Wet Tropics of
NE Australia
8
0
30
0
500
Intensive occupation 800-600 yr BP
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
•Aboriginal occupation in the
rainforest required knowledge
of toxic plant processing and
management of open patches
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
•Occupation intensified around
800-600 yr BP