Download Q2 2013 - Macro Economic Briefing (PDF 1,051KB)

Central Statistics Office
Quarterly National Accounts
Balance of Payments
2nd Qtr 2013
Media Briefing
19 September 2013
Central Statistics Office
National Accounts
Quarter 2 2013
Quarter 2 2013
Seasonally adjusted quarterly changes

GDP
+ 0.4%

GNP
- 0.4%
35000
2002Q1
2002Q2
2002Q3
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
€million
GDP and GNP at constant market prices Q1 2002 - Q2 2013
50000
45000
GDP
40000
GNP
30000
25000
20000
Quarterly GDP Q2 2013 - seasonally adj.
constant prices by Country/Area
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
Sector Growth by Share of GDP and Growth
Rate - Q22013 Seasonally Adjusted
Agriculture - 0.6%
Other Services
-0.1%
Industry
+0.2%
Dist. Transport
Software& Comms
+1.4%
Public Administration
-1.0%
Construction
+4.2%
Expenditure by Share of GDP and Growth
Rate - Q22013 Seasonally Adjusted
Net Exports
+18.2%
Personal Consumption
Investment
Goods & Services
-3.4%
+0.7%
Government Consumption
Goods& Services
-1.3%
Quarterly GDP s. adjusted in Constant Prices Decomposed Total Domestic Demand and Net Exports
Q1 2008 – Q2 2013
6.0%
4.0%
%GDP
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
Net Exports
Total Domestic Demand
Exports of Goods and Services Q12010 –
Q22013 – Constant prices, seas. adj
23,000
SERVICES
22,000
21,000
GOODS
20,000
19,000
18,000
17,000
2013Q2
2013Q1
2012Q4
2012Q3
2012Q2
2012Q1
2011Q4
2011Q3
2011Q2
2011Q1
2010Q4
2010Q3
2010Q2
2010Q1
16,000
GDP and GNP Q12011 – Q2 2013
Seasonally adjusted
50,000
40,000
30,000
€million
20,000
Net Factor
Outflows
GDP
10,000
-
GNP
-10,000
-20,000
2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2
Quarter 2 2013
Quarterly Summary
GDP - small increase
 Increases in Manufacturing (+0.2%), B&C
(+4.2%) and DTS&C (+1.4%) offset by
declines across all other sectors
 Increase in PCE (+0.7) and Net Exports due
to significant rise in exports (+18.2%)
 Offset by falls in Government Spending
(-1.3%) and Capital Formation (-3.4%)
 GNP decline of -0.4% due to higher profit
outflows
Quarter 2 2013
Year-on-Year Growth Rates

GDP
-1.2%

GNP
-0.1%
Quarter 2 2013
Year-on-Year Growth Rates
growth in
» DTS&C (+5.3%)
» Other services (+2.8%)
» Investment (+1%)
And
Decreases in
» Industry (- 7.9%) particularly strong Q2 2012
» Net exports (-3.5%) particularly strong Q2 2012
» Net Factor outflows (-€455m) GNP almost
unchanged (-0.1%)
Personal Consumption
Expenditure Q2 13 versus Q1 13

Personal Consumption Expenditure up 0.7% (seasonally
adjusted) in Q2 of this year compared to Q1 .

Goods up 0.6%

Services down 0.2%

The total PCE is seasonally adjusted independently of
the components (i.e. Goods and Services and is
therefore not constrained to be an average of the
constituent parts)
Personal Consumption
Expenditure Q2 2013/Q2 2012

Total
-1.3%
» Goods
» Services

-0.7%
-1.8%
Many goods down as reflected in the Retail Sales
Index. Example of services down e.g. Transport,
Education, Communications , Expenditure abroad .
Capital Formation Q2 2013/Q2
2012
•
Total +1%
– Building
+10.4%
• New Housing - 3%
• Other Building and Construction +13.6%
– Remainder of Capital Formation -8.8%
– Machinery and Equipment
-10.9%
Airplanes are down approximately €360m in Q213
compared to Q212. Machinery and Eqpt would be
up 8.6 % if ‘planes were unchanged.
Balance of Payments
Quarter 2 2013
BOP Q2 2013 - Current Account
See BOP Table 1a
Q2 2013
Q2 2012
€2,900m
€2,869m
 Merchandise surplus
€9,789m
€10,039m
 Services surplus
€1,512m
€1,531m
 Net Income outflows
€7,695m
€8,090m
Current Account surplus
BOP Q2 2013 - Current Account
See BOP Table 2a
Merchandise
Services
Income
Q2 2013
Annual Change
exports
€21,738m
-€224m
imports
€11,949m
+€26m
exports
€24,071m
+€1,075m
imports
€22,559m
+€1,094m
inflows
€14,131m
-€899m
outflows
€21,826m
-€1,293m
Direct investment profit and interest inflows
€4,554m
-€91m
Direct investment profit and interest outflows
€11,164m
-€168m
BOP Q2 2013 - Financial Account
See BOP Tables 2b and 3
Direct Investment: Abroad
€702m
decrease
In Ireland
€5,887m
Mainly due to increase of €4,513m in Reinvested
Earnings
€1,633m
Decrease of €11,494m in Debt Instrument assets
largely offset by an increase of €9,861m in Equity
assets
€8,697m
Decrease of €13,897m in Debt Instrument
liabilities partly offset by increased investment of
€5,200m in Irish Equity
increase
Portfolio Investment: Assets
decrease
Liabilities
Decrease
Other Investment: Assets
€16,492m
Mainly due to €18,245m decrease in Loans,
Currency and Deposits assets
€16,517m
Driven by decrease of €17,903m in IFSC Other
Investment liabilities
decrease
Liabilities
decrease
Decrease for combined Equity & Reinvested
Earnings of €5,689m offset by increase of
€4,987m in Other Capital assets
Any questions ?